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Thursday, April 25, 2019

Toronto Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to make MLB debut Friday

April 24 (UPI)—Vladimir Guerrero Jr., considered one of the top prospects in baseball, is heading to the MLB.

The Toronto Blue Jays will call up Guerrero on Friday and he is expected to make his major league debut, the team announced Wednesday.

“We plan to call up Vladimir Guerrero for Friday’s game,” Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters. “We’re planning to. Will he play? Yes.

“It’s a big moment for the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s the number one prospect in baseball and he’s coming on Friday. It’s a big moment for us. Hopefully he becomes what everybody thinks he can become and that’s gonna be good for all of us.”

Is this the dawning of the Age of Guerrero?

 

QLE Posted: April 25, 2019 at 05:50 AM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, prospects, vladimir guerrero jr.

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   1. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 25, 2019 at 08:28 AM (#5835172)
Finally
   2. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:32 AM (#5835184)
Fangraphs gives him a scouting grade of 70 on hitting. What could someone possibly do to get an 80?
   3. Rusty Priske Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:38 AM (#5835187)
He has been given an 80 in some reports.
   4. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 25, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5835214)
We're past the Super Two line already?
   5. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5835245)

I'm excited even though I'm not a Jays fan. But I also feel old since I remember when his father was a rookie. Is this how people felt about Ken Griffey Jr.?
   6. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5835293)
Good for him for getting his defense up to snuff in just a couple of weeks in the minors!
   7. . Posted: April 25, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5835300)
I know this will likely summon forth the boring-ass and juvenile "troll" moniker, perhaps even from that strange, attention-starved, stalky guy who puts it in all caps, but Vlad, Jr. doesn't run well and his defense is meh. So yeah, great that the consensus #1 prospect is finally coming to The Show, but I typically reserve my excitement for players with broader skill sets. Standing at the plate and swinging really hard over and over and over again has grown rather tiresome to this observer, and that really doesn't change all that much if the really hard swings happen to hit the ball more frequently.
   8. Brian Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5835316)
So if the really hard swings hit the ball squarely 50% of the time you'd find it "Rather tiresome"? Maybe you just don't like baseball?
   9. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5835320)
So yeah, great that the consensus #1 prospect is finally coming to The Show, but I typically reserve my excitement for players with broader skill sets. Standing at the plate and swinging really hard over and over and over again has grown rather tiresome to this observer, and that really doesn't change all that much if the really hard swings happen to hit the ball more frequently.

I think that's fair, but the kid (like his father) puts the ball in play. Only 150 BB and 139 Ks in over 1,200 minor league PAs. So that should get you a little excited in a league where most power hitters are striking out at over twice that rate.
   10. Karl from NY Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5835321)
We're past the Super Two line already?

No, that usually happens around June. That line determines whether the player's 3rd year of team control can get salary arbitration. That's an OK price to pay for having him in the majors two months sooner now. And it doesn't mean anything at all if they agree to a contract covering that year without arbitration.

The line we passed was the line to make sure he didn't get a full year of service time in 2019, so that he won't qualify for free agency after 2024, giving the team a full 7th year of control in 2025. The Super Two line is a small concern compared to that.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5835322)
but I typically reserve my excitement for players with broader skill sets.

This is the exact opposite of most baseball stardom. Most stars become stars because they do one or two things really well.

Literally no one cared that Babe Ruth was an indifferent fielder and baserunner. Nobody cared that Oziie Smith was only an averagish hitter with no power. Nobody cared that Boggs and Gwynn couldn't really hit HRs, and were meh fielders.

Guerrero has the chance to be a .350 hitter with power. That's always exciting.
   12. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5835326)
So who is the Vlad comp? I'm going with Miguel Cabrera.
   13. RJ in TO Posted: April 25, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5835334)
So who is the Vlad comp? I'm going with Miguel Cabrera.
The Vlad Jr comp is Vlad Sr.
   14. DCA Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5835355)
Cabrera is the standard comp. Same type of hitter/fielder. But early career Cabrera K'd a fair amount, much more than Vlad Jr in a lower-K environment. The upside here is young Pujols's bat with Cabrera's glove.
   15. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5835360)
Literally no one cared Babe Ruth was an indifferent fielder and baserunner.


Well, they probably did in 1926 ...
   16. Rusty Priske Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5835373)
Vlad Sr. isn't really a great comp for Vlad Jr. as Sr. was a plus defender.

Vlad Jr's upside is Barry Bonds.

(I am not claiming that I THINK he will be Barry Bonds, but that is the kind of player he could aspire to.)

The rest of the game matters, which is why I consider Willie Mays to be the best ever.

But, even if he is 'only' a hitter, he could be a very, very good one, and that is something.
   17. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5835390)
I think that's fair, but the kid (like his father) puts the ball in play. Only 150 BB and 139 Ks in over 1,200 minor league PAs. So that should get you a little excited in a league where most power hitters are striking out at over twice that rate.


Which means SBB should like him because he's not oafish.
   18. Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5835393)
Vlad Sr. isn't really a great comp for Vlad Jr. as Sr. was a plus defender.

Vlad Jr's upside is Barry Bonds.

(I am not claiming that I THINK he will be Barry Bonds, but that is the kind of player he could aspire to.)

The rest of the game matters, which is why I consider Willie Mays to be the best ever.


???

Bonds was a far better defender than Vlad Sr (dWAR puts the difference at over 17 wins). Vlad had a cannon for an arm, but wasn't a great defender overall.
   19. "RMc", the superbatsman Posted: April 25, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5835465)
Literally no one cared Babe Ruth was an indifferent fielder and baserunner.

Well, they probably did in 1926 ...


Only once.
   20. . Posted: April 25, 2019 at 05:52 PM (#5835466)
Which means SBB should like him because he's not oafish.


Yes, that's a good point and makes him significantly more potentially appealing.

This is the exact opposite of most baseball stardom. Most stars become stars because they do one or two things really well.


The "two-tool player"? Hmm, not sure about that one.

Literally no one cared that Babe Ruth was an indifferent fielder and baserunner. Nobody cared that Oziie Smith was only an averagish hitter with no power. Nobody cared that Boggs and Gwynn couldn't really hit HRs, and were meh fielders.


May I submit that no one "cared" about those things because those players weren't those things? Babe Ruth hit a ton of triples and had a hustler's 2B/3B ratio. Since he was a world-class pitcher, he was also pretty clearly elite athletically. As to fielding, our best source is probably Strat-o-Matic and his 1927 card -- the one they've done far and away the most work on -- has him as a 2 in RF with a minus-3 arm. Not Dave Parker or Jason Heyward, to be sure -- but much closer to them than to, say, Nick Castellanos.

Tony Gwynn wasn't a meh fielder, he in fact won several Gold Gloves, was an excellent runner and base stealer, and obviously a fantastic hitter for average. He was lacking only hitting for power in the five tools in the toolshed.

Ozzie Smith was in fact as you described but the problem there is that people in fact did care. He got traded early in his career for a far better hitter because he couldn't hit.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2019 at 06:45 PM (#5835480)
I think a variety of one-sided players is good for the game. I'm not just talking about the Ozzie Smiths - I think that Rafael Belliard, Terrance Gore, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Steve Balboni and Wily Mo Pena all enhance the game in their own ways. There's nothing wrong with preferring many-tooled players, but a league with only the many-tooled would actually be less entertaining, just like the NBA would be less entertaining if it only had 6'7" small forwards.
   22. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 25, 2019 at 07:09 PM (#5835484)
The line we passed was the line to make sure he didn't get a full year of service time in 2019, so that he won't qualify for free agency after 2024, giving the team a full 7th year of control in 2025.

Actually, the line passed while he was on the injured list from a spring training muscle pull.

The Jays did zero service time manipulation this season for him, and that's why there isn't even a discussion about him (or his agent) filing a grievance.

It's not just his ridiculous power, but his batting eye that has everyone excited. People like to joke about him emulating his dad and hitting a pitch that bounced, but his eye is FAR more advanced than good old pops.

One story that is told during an article on The Athletic is that after striking out in a game, he came back to the dugout and told the manager why he struck out. He then told the manager the exact sequence of pitches that he was going to face next plate appearance, and that he'd "wait for the hanging curve to be thrown and hit it out".

He went up, and another player watched the pitches be thrown in the exact order Vladdy Jr. predicted, and then when the hanging curve was thrown...pow. Gone in a heartbeat.
All comments from teammates and coaches is that he LOVES the game and is always studying what is happening each plate appearance and adjusting his approach.

   23. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 25, 2019 at 07:27 PM (#5835489)
Fangraphs has his arm rated at 60. I'm disappointed with that given his father's remarkable arm strength. Still gonna watch in the hopes that he has to make a long throw while I've got eyes on him.

The hit tool and the plate discipline are potentially super exciting. Remind me more of Pujols than Miggy though. Pujols wasn't a big walker when he came up, he was fine, but hardly uber patient. But he had a long run where he was walking more than striking out.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2019 at 07:27 PM (#5835490)
his eye is FAR more advanced than good old pops.


Their BB:K:PA numbers are very very similar, although Vlad Jr has been doing it at younger ages.
   25. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:54 PM (#5835510)
#24 yes and it’s also now 20 years later and the league is striking out at a higher rate.
   26. kwarren Posted: April 26, 2019 at 12:41 AM (#5835539)
The rest of the game matters, which is why I consider Willie Mays to be the best ever.
So you don't think that the various type of WAR that are now published measure "the rest of the game" accurately. Or is it just a personal subjective preference that leads you to consider Williw Mays to be the best ever.

Rank Player (yrs, age) Wins Above Replacement
1. Babe Ruth+ (22) 182.4
2. Walter Johnson+ (21) 164.3
3. Cy Young+ (22) 163.6
4. Barry Bonds (22) 162.8
5. Willie Mays+ (22) 156.4

   27. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 26, 2019 at 02:22 AM (#5835542)
C'mon, guys. Are we arguing with the Dumbest Man on the Entire Internet again?
   28. manchestermets Posted: April 26, 2019 at 05:47 AM (#5835546)
Which means SBB should like him because he's not oafish.


Why, it's almost as if he isn't posting in good faith, but changing his stance from thread to thread in order to get a response.
   29. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 26, 2019 at 06:04 AM (#5835548)
Yeah, Vladito getting hurt meant that the Jays didn't actually #### with his service time. They would have, and they did last year when it was clear that they could have called him up for September and he'd immediately have been one of their best players as a 19 year old, but I'm willing to let bygones be bygones so long as he doesn't hit too many dingers against the Red Sox.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: April 26, 2019 at 07:08 AM (#5835553)
Why, it's almost as if he isn't posting in good faith, but changing his stance from thread to thread in order to get a response.


I think in this case he was simply unfamiliar with Guerrero - which is natural, as SBB appears to actually hate baseball - and saw him only as a means to yammer on about one of his hobbyhorses.
   31. . Posted: April 26, 2019 at 07:50 AM (#5835557)
What a strange place we've arrived at in baseball/commentary/internet history when expressing a preference for five-tool baseball prospects is somehow deemed intentionally provocative or out of bounds.
   32. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 26, 2019 at 08:04 AM (#5835558)
Aww, we triggered SBB.
   33. Lassus Posted: April 26, 2019 at 08:20 AM (#5835560)
What a strange place we've arrived at in baseball/commentary/internet history when expressing a preference for five-tool baseball prospects is somehow deemed intentionally provocative or out of bounds.

As the thread is specifically about Guerrero, do you have anyone at all in mind that should be paid more attention to or whom is more deserving of this thread?
   34. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 26, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5835592)
As to fielding, our best source is probably Strat-o-Matic and his 1927 card -- the one they've done far and away the most work on -- has him as a 2 in RF with a minus-3 arm.

That could well be Hal Richman's well-documented New York Bias creeping into the ratings again. Derek Jeter's ratings from 1996 - 2012 (from 1 [Best] to 5 [Worst]) were 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3.
   35. Nasty Nate Posted: April 26, 2019 at 10:36 AM (#5835597)
I'm impressed that the post quoted in #33 hits all the greatest hits in one short sentence: it's condescending with un-earned superiority, mis-represents all sides of the discussion, and shows whiny victim-hood. I guess it's missing multiple logical fallacies, but otherwise it's an entire posting history boiled down to a few dozen words.
   36. . Posted: April 26, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5835607)
No, seriously -- all I said was that I typically reserve my excitement for prospects with broader skill-sets. It's right there in the post. How is such a thing even remotely "provocative"? Is it some sort of requirement or something that people get all giddy over Vlad, Jr? Is that a requirement to get the magic "liker of baseball" membership card? What exactly is the crowd "opposing" (*) my statement saying here?

(*) Scare quotes representing the fact that it's a bit strange to fervently "oppose" what at the end of the day is a mere aesthetic preference, akin to preferring Picasso to Jackson Pollack.
   37. Spahn Insane Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:37 PM (#5835667)
The upside here is young Pujols's bat with Cabrera's glove.

So, Pujols's bat, then. (FWIW, I think Guerrero's bat is hella exciting on its own, and I'm stoked to watch his debut.)
   38. Spahn Insane Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5835670)
Also, this thread reminds me a bit of an exchange I saw on one of the usenet groups way BITD (mid-late 90s), wherein one poster was mocking another for preferring Player A, a power hitter, to Player B, who had a different (perhaps more diverse**) skill set, going so far as to compare the Player A advocate to Beavis and Butthead ("Home runs are cool, huh huh, huh huh.").

**I honestly don't remember who the players being discussed were, so I can't comment on the merits of either poster's position, but I do recall the poster in Player A's camp issuing this riposte: "If you don't think home runs are cool, you're both a dillhole AND a fartknocker."
   39. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5835674)
Home runs are cool because a home run means you're gonna SCORE! Huhhuhhuhuhhuh. I bet Todd likes home runs.
   40. Spahn Insane Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5835675)
Home runs are cool because a home run means you're definitely gonna SCORE! Huhhuhhuhuhhuh. I bet Todd likes home runs.

Yeah, but he saves em for when his girlfriend's watching after he kicks some random dude's ass. Especially if they make him spill beer all over his good jeans.
   41. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5835677)
Huhhuhuh. Yeah. Todd kicks ass.
   42. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 26, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5835687)
Lolita and Tanqueray dig the long ball.
   43. Zonk didn't order a hit on an ambassador Posted: April 26, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5835690)
I hope he has a good week so we can say that he's on FIRE! FIRE!
   44. I was saying Boo-urns Posted: April 27, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5835856)
So like, Wilton Guerrero and Vladimir Guerrero Sr are brothers, right? Wilton was born on Oct 24, 1974. Vlad was born on Feb 9, 1975. That's an age difference of less than four months. How is that possible? Assuming they have the same mother, one of those dates has to be wrong.
   45. Greg Pope Posted: April 27, 2019 at 10:46 AM (#5835863)
So like, Wilton Guerrero and Vladimir Guerrero Sr are brothers, right? Wilton was born on Oct 24, 1974. Vlad was born on Feb 9, 1975. That's an age difference of less than four months. How is that possible? Assuming they have the same mother, one of those dates has to be wrong.

Ben Lindbergh wrote an article on this back in 2013. Most likely explanation is that both of them listed themselves as a year younger when they broke into baseball. Vlad's was corrected in 2009 but Wilton was out of baseball at that point.
   46. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 27, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5835865)
Huh, I never realized that Vlad and Wilton had another sibling, and that they're uncles to Gabriel Guerrero, who got a cup of coffee last year with the Reds. If this keeps up, they're going to be right there with the Catching Molinas and the Hand-softening Alous.
   47. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5835921)
Toronto batting Guerrero clean-up today. I wouldn’t do that, but I guess they figure that with all the anticipation the pressure is already maxed out.

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