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Friday, February 05, 2021

Trevor Bauer signing with Los Angeles Dodgers

Trevor Bauer, the 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner, has agreed to join the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the California native announcing his move in a YouTube video Friday.

Bauer and the Dodgers are in agreement on a three-year deal that has opt-outs after Years 1 and 2, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The 30-year-old right-hander was the first reigning Cy Young Award winner to enter free agency since Greg Maddux in 1992.

Bauer, a first-time free agent who played last season for the Cincinnati Reds on a $17 million deal that was prorated to $6.4 million, was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in 2020, going 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, 100 strikeouts and 17 walks during the pandemic-shortened season. Opposing batters hit .159 against him, which led all major league pitchers. In addition to WHIP and ERA, Bauer led the NL in ERA-plus, which adjusts for his hitter-friendly home ballpark, and hits allowed per nine innings (5.055) in 2020.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:18 PM | 123 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, trevor bauer

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   1. JRVJ Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:28 PM (#6003955)
This gives the Dodgers a ton of rotation depth. But I'm not entirely sure it makes them that much better outside of that depth (and inevitably, injuries), because of how good they were already.

Perhaps the Dodgers will trade some of their excess arms?

EDIT: I suppose that at this point, the Dodgers could be organizing their team thinking of the fact that they are a shoo in for the playoffs, and want to have a monster rotation for those very playoffs.
   2. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:36 PM (#6003957)
If Robothal is right about that, it's nuts. Opt outs each year, and that heavily front-loaded, means that this is really 85/2. For Trevor Bauer. And I mean, I know that he throws better than he tweets, but that a lot of cash.

And if he actually exercised the option, it's because he arm fell off, in which case it's 102/2.
   3. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:39 PM (#6003959)
Great acquisition, but for the Dodgers' sake I hope he learns to keep his political opinions to himself. (smile)
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:39 PM (#6003960)
$102M for three years, with opt outs after first and second year. Salaries: $40M in first year, $45M in second.
Interesting. So the only way it goes to a third year is if he's hurt or terrible enough that it's $17M in dead money.

EDIT: Coke to Ziggy, I see.
   5. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6003961)
Now he'll have more money to give to charity in the douchiest way possible.
   6. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6003962)
Yeah, the Dodgers were already going to win 105 games. This is just to tilt the scales a little bit for the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are talking to the A’s about Matt Chapman either.
   7. TJ Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6003963)
How many of us thought we would live to see the day where the biggest arms race in baseball would be between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres?
   8. Smitty* Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6003964)
Who gets from the rotation here? The 1st ballot HOFer coming off a 196 ERA+?
The guy coming off the 183 ERA+ with a 162 career ERA+?
Maybe the guy coming off a 165 ERA+ with a 142 career ERA+?
I mean the guy who only had 124 ERA+ last year must be a loser right? But he might bounce back to his 129 career mark
Or maybe the guy who needed a 130 last year to bring his career mark up to 129

I think the Dodgers hate having starting pitchers give up runs as much as I hate pants



   9. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6003965)
So is Brusdar Graterol the Kenley Jansen heir? He'll need to get that K rate up to have a future in the pen, but he's only 21 and he was striking out almost 10/per 9 in the minors, mostly as a teenager.
   10. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: February 05, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6003966)
Given that the Dodgers have almost no longterm payroll other than Betts, I could see Bauer continuing to sign these deals with the Dodgers until he breaks.
   11. JJ1986 Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6003968)
David Price is going to be the new Dodgers closer.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:04 PM (#6003969)
Who gets from the rotation here? The 1st ballot HOFer coming off a 196 ERA+?
The guy coming off the 183 ERA+ with a 162 career ERA+?
Maybe the guy coming off a 165 ERA+ with a 142 career ERA+?
I mean the guy who only had 124 ERA+ last year must be a loser right? But he might bounce back to his 129 career mark
Or maybe the guy who needed a 130 last year to bring his career mark up to 129


Somebody's got to make way for the guy with the 113 career ERA+.
   13. billyshears Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6003971)
I don't know what the Mets offered. I wish they had signed Bauer. But this contract structure is a bit nuts.
   14. Smitty* Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6003973)
You’re right the new guy is a bum in this crew send him to the pen
   15. JRVJ Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6003974)
Upon checking MLB Trade Rumors top 50 FAs, 9 of the top 10 FAs have signed (Ozuna is the lone top 10 FA not to sign), 17 of the top 20 FAs have signed (Odorizzi & Turner are the non-signees in the 11-20 range) and 23 of the top 30 FAs have signed (Bradley Jr, Paxson, Taijuan Walker and Rosenthal have not signed).

I had the impression that it had been a much slower off-season than this, but at least going by the top 30, almost 80% are signed, and one would think a few more dominoes will now fall quickly (i.e., Odorizzi, Walker and Paxson), with Bauer signed.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6003975)
@jaysonst
Teams with 3 former Cy Young starters, last 25 yrs:

2021 Dodgers (Kershaw, Bauer, Price)
2014 Tigers (Verlander, Scherzer, Price)
2009 Giants (Lincecum, Zito, Johnson)
2001 Red Sox (Pedro, Cone, Saberhagen)
2000 Yanks (Clemens, Gooden, Cone)
1997-98-99-2001-02 Braves (you know!)
   17. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6003976)
Ken Rosenthal and Britt Ghiroli would like to examine Bauer's devices to make sure he hasn't sent any problematic text messages recently.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:17 PM (#6003977)
@jaysonst
Teams with 3 former Cy Young starters, last 25 yrs:

2021 Dodgers (Kershaw, Bauer, Price)
They also have 3 former MVPs - although one of them is Kershaw so that's double counting.
   19. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6003978)
The Amazins really only needed Bauer for this season. The Dodgers are pretty much assured of Bauer's services in 2022 ($45M!) when Kershaw may no longer be on the club.
   20. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:23 PM (#6003979)

#16, and if you go back a few years before that, you get the '89-91 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Viola and the '92 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Saberhagen.
   21. asinwreck Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6003980)
I wonder what this means for their current (Turner) and near-term (Seager) free agents. Depends on how much the team wants to avoid the repeater tax in the next few years.
   22. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6003981)

Mets offer was reportedly comparable to the Dodgers. $100-$110 million with about $40 million in each of the first two seasons, and opt-outs after each of the first two seasons.
   23. villageidiom Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#6003982)
That's a really high salary for 2021. I wonder how much of it the Rockies are covering.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6003984)
It is crazy the Dodgers had this kind of payroll flexibility despite having Mookie Betts!
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6003985)
2014 Tigers (Verlander, Scherzer, Price)


And a future one (Porcello).
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6003987)
Cone-Saberhagen.
They were briefly teammates in 2001, 1995, and 1986. In his major league debut, Cone came in to relieve Saberhagen.
   27. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6003988)
I had the impression that it had been a much slower off-season than this, but at least going by the top 30, almost 80% are signed, and one would think a few more dominoes will now fall quickly (i.e., Odorizzi, Walker and Paxson), with Bauer signed.

Maybe it just doesn't feel slow compared the last couple of years? Feels like only 80% of the top guys being signed a week before pitchers and catchers report would have been crazy even 3 years ago.

---

Dodgers are blowing over the luxury tax line this year, they might as well resign Turner to a high AAV, short term deal too if they want.

---

Yeah, the Dodgers were already going to win 105 games. This is just to tilt the scales a little bit for the playoffs.

They're not guaranteed to win their division, and it's still much more preferable to win the division than be the WC. So this is not just for the playoffs.
   28. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6003989)
Opt outs each year, and that heavily front-loaded, means that this is really 85/2.
That would make him a free agent again for his age-32 season, when a longer term deal might be more attractive. The more interesting question is what kind of a 2021 season would Bauer have to have to make opting out of the $45M for 2022 a real possibility?
   29. Adam Starblind Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6003990)
Chances the Mets resign Syndergaard just went up.
   30. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6003991)
Bauer's an LA guy, he likes the weather, maybe these contract terms are a little more favorable - it's all good.

but he seems desperate to toss out this persona of toughness and bravado.

well, the most high-pressure spot, by a ton, was to sign with the Mets with their 35-year drought and a daunting fan base.

the 30th-most high-pressure spot was to sign with the defending champs and - er, a less daunting fan base, even before they just won the trophy a few months ago.

the best word that comes to mind for me is "weak" - given his previous bravado.

the phrase "all hat, no cattle" also comes to my mind.

btw, he is getting roasted at the spit on WFAN sports talk radio here every bit as much as you'd expect.

the Dodgers will come to Queens on Aug 13-15 - I wonder if Bauer's turn in the rotation will come up.

   31. villageidiom Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6003992)
It is crazy the Dodgers had this kind of payroll flexibility despite having Mookie Betts!
Before the Bauer signing, the Dodgers' CBT payroll for 2021 was around the same as Boston's.
   32. JRVJ Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6003993)
27, I guess its a mixture of the last few years, the pandemic and some writers stating that there are over 140+ FAs out there (e.g., a recent Jayson Stark article).
   33. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6003994)
They're not guaranteed to win their division, and it's still much more preferable to win the division than be the WC. So this is not just for the playoffs.
I’m a bit more skeptical of the Padres than most so you may be right. Also, winning the division should be preferable, but until we know what the playoff structure is going to be it is hard to be too confident in that.
   34. flournoy Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6003996)
#16, and if you go back a few years before that, you get the '89-91 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Viola and the '92 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Saberhagen.


No, you don't. David Cone was not a former Cy Young winner when he was on any of those teams.
   35. Ken Griffey Junior Bacon Cheeseburger Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6003997)
They were briefly teammates in 2001, 1995, and 1986. In his major league debut, Cone came in to relieve Saberhagen.


In 1995, Cone started with the Blue Jays and then was dealt to the Yankees.

Saberhagen started with the Mets and then was traded to the Rockies.
   36. Ken Griffey Junior Bacon Cheeseburger Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:14 PM (#6003998)
Cone-Saberhagen.
They were briefly teammates in 2001, 1995, and 1986. In his major league debut, Cone came in to relieve Saberhagen.


Was probably meant to be 1992. Cone was a Blue Jay then Yankee in 1995; Saberhagen was a Met then a Rockie.
   37. Ken Griffey Junior Bacon Cheeseburger Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:15 PM (#6003999)
Whoops
   38. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:17 PM (#6004000)
the best word that comes to mind for me is "weak" - given his previous bravado.

Far be it from me to defend this #########, but this is dumb.
   39. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:17 PM (#6004001)
Hahahahaha.

I love how ootp strategies go mainstream. Once you get your finances in order, this is how you win 120 games a year... toss ridiculously high, but short-term AAVs at players, pitchers especially.
   40. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:21 PM (#6004002)
I saw 3 years $102 million and was like "ok, maybe a bit of an overpay, but I guess they believe in the break out." Then I saw that it's really $85 million for 2 years with effectively a player option for $17m more in case he blows out his elbow or shoulder. Seems like a huge overpay.
   41. flournoy Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:23 PM (#6004003)
but he seems desperate to toss out this persona of toughness and bravado.

well, the most high-pressure spot, by a ton, was to sign with the Mets with their 35-year drought and a daunting fan base.

the 30th-most high-pressure spot was to sign with the defending champs and - er, a less daunting fan base, even before they just won the trophy a few months ago.

the best word that comes to mind for me is "weak" - given his previous bravado.


This is crazy. He doesn't feel pressured to prove himself to a bunch of asshats on the internet. That makes him weak?
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6004004)
Was probably meant to be 1992. Cone was a Blue Jay then Yankee in 1995; Saberhagen was a Met then a Rockie.
Yeah, I typed the wrong year. My eyes started swimming seeing all the trades and the Mets and Royals all over their bbref pages.
   43. Baldrick Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:28 PM (#6004005)
the best word that comes to mind for me is "weak" - given his previous bravado.

What on earth are you talking about?

Edit: I see several others have also said similar things. Which...yeah, this is nuts.
   44. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6004006)
I’m a bit more skeptical of the Padres than most so you may be right. Also, winning the division should be preferable, but until we know what the playoff structure is going to be it is hard to be too confident in that.

Don't we now know it's the normal setup - 3 division winners and 2 WC (play in game)?

FWIW, ZIPS had both teams at 98 wins after SD acquired Darvish.
   45. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:36 PM (#6004010)
Don't we now know it's the normal setup - 3 division winners and 2 WC (play in game)?


Assuming the player's union holds strong, yes. But the owners could still make an offer for expanded playoffs.
   46. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:43 PM (#6004015)
I saw 3 years $102 million and was like "ok, maybe a bit of an overpay, but I guess they believe in the break out." Then I saw that it's really $85 million for 2 years with effectively a player option for $17m more in case he blows out his elbow or shoulder. Seems like a huge overpay.

Yes, yes it does.
   47. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:51 PM (#6004018)
Obligatory:
Trevor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.
   48. SoSH U at work Posted: February 05, 2021 at 05:55 PM (#6004020)
This is crazy. He doesn't feel pressured to prove himself to a bunch of asshats on the internet


If anyone is concerned with what a bunch of asshats on the internet think it's probably a fellow asshat on the internet.
   49. salvomania Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:02 PM (#6004022)
I was looking back at those 1970s-1980s Phillies staffs (Carlton, Lonborg, etc., then Carlton, Denny, etc.) to see if they ever had three---and they came oh so close, twice having two plus a guy who would win it the next season---and I didn't find any.

But I did find that the 1976 Phillies used 11 pitchers ALL SEASON. And one of them was Randy Lerch, who got into 1 game in September.

They had 5 starters, who started 156 of their 162 games. They had a three-man closer-by-committee, with Ron Reed, Tug McGraw and Gene Garber combining for 36 saves. And then they had righties Wayne Twitchell and Ron Schueler, who combined for a 2.26 ERA and 110 Ks in 111.1 ip (which are pretty good K numbers for those days). That's it.

Just to check a random team from "today," I looked at the 2019 Cardinals, and saw that they used 23 pitchers. You might think, "oh, the '76 Phillies probably threw 70 or 80 complete games so didn't need a deep pen," but they only threw 34.
   50. billyshears Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:08 PM (#6004023)
This is a 1 year contract from Bauer's perspective. With $62 mil of downside protection if his arm blows up.
   51. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:15 PM (#6004025)
11. JJ1986 Posted: February 05, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6003968)
David Price is going to be the new Dodgers closer.


He can talk to Eckersley about that role.
   52. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6004026)
Trevor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.
The opt-outs take on even greater significance, as I assume his lawyer will educate the friend on how they mean this is not technically a multi-year contract. At which point the friend should shoot the lawyer in the nuts with a paintball gun.
   53. spycake Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6004027)
#16, and if you go back a few years before that, you get the '89-91 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Viola and the '92 Mets with Gooden-Cone-Saberhagen.

Not quite, the criteria was *former* Cy Young winners, not future winners. Cone didn’t win his until 1994 (with the Royals).

Edit: coke to flournoy!
   54. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:44 PM (#6004028)
I doubt Price gets moved to the bullpen. Assuming that everyone is healthy to start the season, it will probably be May in the pen and Gonsolin at AAA. But there will be injuries, phantom IL stints, and times where they use 6 guys in a time around the rotation.

They had 5 starters, who started 156 of their 162 games.


The 2003 Mariners had 5 starters cover all 162 games.
   55. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 05, 2021 at 06:48 PM (#6004029)
the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.


I can't imagine how much this would hurt. Actually, I can, which is the problem. I used to play paintball in college (it was amazingly fun), and while I never took one to the nuts, whenever I came home I was covered in welts.

Also, agreeing to get shot in the nuts with a paintball gun is exactly the sort of thing that I would expect from Trevor Bauer.
   56. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2021 at 07:03 PM (#6004031)
revor Bauer says he's never signing a long-term deal. Only one-year contracts.

Why? Turns out he made a bet with a friend: If he ever signs a multi-year deal, the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.


careful, that almost sounds like "bravado" - and the BBTF jury has refused to indict on that charge.

what the heck he IS doing on social media - well, nobody has stepped forward to take on that one yet.

but not bravado. not at all.
   57. flournoy Posted: February 05, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6004033)
I don't do social media, so I don't know what's going on there. But he shouldn't have to serve a sentence with the Mets for it.
   58. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2021 at 07:46 PM (#6004036)
I don't do social media, so I don't know what's going on there.

you already made that pretty obvious, yes.
   59. reech Posted: February 05, 2021 at 07:47 PM (#6004037)
As a Mets fan, I am glad they didn't get him.
I really don't need to have to deal with his BS all year- life already is too aggravating to deal with some a-hole who is addicted to social media. The Mets do not ALWAYS have to be MLB's clown car.

   60. RJ in TO Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6004039)
They don't have to be. They choose to be.
   61. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#6004040)
No, you don't. David Cone was not a former Cy Young winner when he was on any of those teams.

Hmm, you’re right. I saw the word “former” but for some reason I didn’t remember that Scherzer had won a CYA before his time in Washington, so I just assumed that the term was being misused in this case.
   62. The Duke Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:07 PM (#6004041)
Maybe they just go with a 6 man rotation and keep innings down and then take their best three and steamroll everyone else in the playoffs. If they end up trading for Chapman I don’t see how the Padres can beat them.
   63. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:36 PM (#6004043)
Did something happen to Jansen or is it that he’s just not all that great anymore?
   64. JRVJ Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6004045)
And the Braves resign Ozuna, which means that the 10 best FAs have been signed.
   65. Mayor Blomberg Posted: February 05, 2021 at 08:45 PM (#6004047)
The 62, 63, and 64, Cy Young winners all pitched from the same home ballpark, but only two were on the same team.
   66. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 09:15 PM (#6004048)
Did something happen to Jansen or is it that he’s just not all that great anymore?


Very much the latter.

As to this being an overpay? I don't know, when you play in Los Angeles and you make the World Series almost as a matter of course, there is a hell of a lot of money lying around. It's a short deal, too. I can see no real problems for the Dodgers.
   67. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 05, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6004055)
The 62, 63, and 64, Cy Young winners all pitched from the same home ballpark, but only two were on the same team.

Just learned this today: In 1883 New York had two different teams that played in two different leagues, but they played on two different diamonds in the same ballpark, and had the same owner.

   68. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: February 05, 2021 at 10:12 PM (#6004058)
the friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun from 10 feet away.


As my dad used to tell me: if he shoots you in the nuts with a paintball gun, he's not really your friend.
   69. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 10:26 PM (#6004059)
Maybe they just go with a 6 man rotation and keep innings down and then take their best three and steamroll everyone else in the playoffs. If they end up trading for Chapman I don’t see how the Padres can beat them.

Have you not watched baseball before? A team that projects 3-5 wins better than an opponent loses to them every year. The SD around "true talent" is like 8 wins.
   70. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2021 at 10:44 PM (#6004061)
also, if Chapman is "Aroldis Chapman," then there are Yankees fans here *cough* who can imagine a scenario of having Chapman on your roster and yet and another team beating them in the postseason.
   71. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 05, 2021 at 10:45 PM (#6004062)
I can't imagine how much this would hurt.


I guess it falls to me to remind folks of this thread.
   72. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 05, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6004066)
[70] That’s who I thought of when I read the post, but I just remembered there’s a Chapman who plays third base for the A’s who is really good. I expect they’ll just bring back Turner, though.
   73. DFA Posted: February 06, 2021 at 12:35 AM (#6004073)
I likely am in the minority, but I like this deal for the Dodgers. HIs velo has been fine, and it's not as if his 2020 was an aberration. World Champions add best free agent? The key, I believe, will be not resigning him after he inevitably opts out after 2022. As a baseball fan, I cannot wait to watch the Padres/Dodgers all year. So great for baseball.
   74. The Duke Posted: February 06, 2021 at 08:48 AM (#6004081)
I think that’s right - he’s got a two year deal they can walk away from when he starts to decline and he’s for a major incentive to keep pitching well so he can get his next contract
   75. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 06, 2021 at 09:08 AM (#6004082)
It’s basically a 1-year, $40-million deal if he’s good, and a 3-year, $102 million deal if he’s bad. You have to assume that in a year he will use the threat of opt-out to try to renegotiate a similar deal, basically extending the current deal for an additional year. And he’ll keep doing that every year as long until he’s too old for it to make sense.
   76. bfan Posted: February 06, 2021 at 09:16 AM (#6004083)
I am constantly reminded what a different place I am in that most of the posters here, but this deal makes me very sad; it is Kevin Durant to the Warriors all over again. The best free agent just went to the world champion. Oh joy. So everybody engages in a regular season so they can face the best hitting team in the play-offs and a rotation of Bauer; Kershaw; Buehler; and someone else very, very good.

I also love Trevor Bauer and would ask everyone to think about it in a rational basis and ask themselves: who is braver today, someone who expresses conservative views on twitter and supported Trump, or someone who gives one the "thoughts and prayers" and "face down the man" thought line in the twitter verse. One gets boycotted; the other gets stroked to their heart's consent.
   77. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2021 at 09:35 AM (#6004084)
Wait, Trevor Bauer is also a Donald Trump supporter? I just thought he was an apolitical #######?

   78. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 06, 2021 at 09:44 AM (#6004085)
who is braver today, someone who expresses conservative views on twitter and supported Trump, or someone who gives one the "thoughts and prayers" and "face down the man" thought line in the twitter verse.


Is this meant to be a joke? Twitter is infested with insane Trump weirdos. Nothing anybody does on Twitter is brave.
   79. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2021 at 09:56 AM (#6004087)
Wait, Trevor Bauer is also a Donald Trump supporter? I just thought he was an apolitical #######?

Indians Pitcher Trevor Bauer Had An All-Time Twitter Meltdown Over Donald Trump
   80. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 06, 2021 at 10:00 AM (#6004088)
[77] Yeah, he tweeted out MAGA when Trump won in 2016 and has been open about supporting Trump. But as long as he doesn’t go the full Schilling, I doubt it will ever be an issue. I’d guess that something like 40% of American MLB players are Trump supporters; I don’t see any reason why it would be much different than the population as a whole,
   81. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2021 at 10:02 AM (#6004089)
Indians Pitcher Trevor Bauer Had An All-Time Twitter Meltdown Over Donald Trump


If I was previously aware of Bauer's fondness for bfan's boy deetee, it was likely reset by Trevor's more recent twitter beef with Aubrey Huff, who somehow was not involved in storming the Capitol.
   82. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 06, 2021 at 10:08 AM (#6004091)

I thought Bauer was better known on Twitter for encouraging his followers to harass people. Very brave, that.

I also didn’t know he was pro-Trump. But I don’t follow him (or any other baseball players) on Twitter.
   83. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: February 06, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6004098)
Yeah, he tweeted out MAGA when Trump won in 2016 and has been open about supporting Trump. But as long as he doesn’t go the full Schilling, I doubt it will ever be an issue.

He's probably lucky that Biden won, and that Trump will appear less and less in the news as the baseball season unfolds.
   84. puck Posted: February 06, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6004108)
That's a really high salary for 2021. I wonder how much of it the Rockies are covering.


Ha! I read somewhere that the Rockies owner Charlie Monfort is the head of the owners' Labor Committee or something.

Is that good or bad for the players? On the one hand the Monfort business was a giant cattle/rendering operation that was later sold to ConAgra. The meat packing places seem to have workers under their thumbs. OTOH, Monfort appears to liberally give away money to players without regard for their production on the field.
   85. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 07, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6004178)
The more I think about this, the weirder it is. Traditionally you get a big bump in revenue after winning the WS (maybe less this year if stadia are at limited capacity). LAD has a strong team without Bauer. Why blow the WS bonus on a guy you don't really need, instead of just pocketing the money?

Somebody is going to say something about how baseball isn't that predictable, and you shouldn't take for granted that you're going to do well this year. But even if you do well, what you get out of it is extra revenue next year. Which you could pocket. But you've already got the extra revenue this year. Risking it for the sake of getting it again next year doesn't seem wise.
   86. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: February 07, 2021 at 12:19 PM (#6004186)
Why blow the WS bonus on a guy you don't really need, instead of just pocketing the money?
This ownership group isn’t shy about spending to win. They wanted Cole last year and felt like they could have used another elite arm during the playoffs. Also, Friedman’s motto for this off-season was Let’s Be Greedy.
   87. Nasty Nate Posted: February 07, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6004192)
Laughs are easy, they're going for gasps

In other words, they want a dynasty. They may also want to shock and awe those Giants championships from last decade into some forgotten history status.
   88. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 01:06 PM (#6004196)
In other words, they want a dynasty.

Yeah, but the current structure of baseball makes it impossible to build a roster that had a good chance of that. The best way to win Championships is to just make the playoffs every year, and occasionally you'll get lucky. That's what the Dodgers just showed; eight straight division titles, and one World Series. That's what you should expect.

The incremental odds the best team has over any random division winner aren't worth blowing an extra $50M on.
   89. Nasty Nate Posted: February 07, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6004199)
Right, but I think they want attention, glitz and glamor, an 110-win season or two, and to be a de facto all-star team, etc (in addition to the incremental odds improvement for World Series wins). That kind of dynasty.
   90. SoSH U at work Posted: February 07, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6004206)
The incremental odds the best team has over any random division winner aren't worth blowing an extra $50M on.


Yes, but they're not just trying be better than the other division winners, but better than the Padres. And finishing first instead of second has more than incremental odds improvement when it comes to winning a pennant/WS. A division winner has twice as good a chance of winning it all as a WC participant.
   91. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6004207)
Yes, but they're not just trying be better than the other division winners, but better than the Padres. And finishing first instead of second has more than incremental odds improvement when it comes to winning a pennant/WS. A division winner has twice as good a chance of winning it all as a WC participant.

Yes, that's a fair point. I was speaking more generally than just this year's Dodgers. I still think Bauer is an odd place to spend the money, but you can see what they're doing.

My point was that generally there's no reason to spend a ton to turn your 95 proj. win team into a 100, or 105 proj. win team. Dyansties in today's game are going to be 90% luck, if they ever happen at all.
   92. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: February 07, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6004210)
My point was that generally there's no reason to spend a ton to turn your 95 proj. win team into a 100, or 105 proj. win team. Dyansties in today's game are going to be 90% luck, if they ever happen at all.


I don't think this is about a few more regular season wins so much as it's about collecting lots of good arms to get through the season and remain in a strong position to make it through the playoffs. For comparison, the Yankees are much worse off if Cole goes down for a stretch than the Dodgers are when Kershaw takes his annual IL stint.
   93. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: February 07, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6004213)
My point was that generally there's no reason to spend a ton to turn your 95 proj. win team into a 100, or 105 proj. win team. Dyansties in today's game are going to be 90% luck, if they ever happen at all.
It seems pretty clear to me that Friedman and the Dodgers don’t agree with this. They have spent the last few years trying to turn 100+ win teams into 110+ win teams.
   94. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 03:28 PM (#6004214)
I think people misunderstand the Dodgers' incentives here. They print money. And it simply isn't true that a series is 50-50 between any two good teams. They've clearly concluded it's worth the money to them to increase their chances at a WS the 2-3% that Bauer gives them.

Further, there's notoriety in being the best team in baseball year after year after year. What's the difference between 95 wins and 105 wins? Well, one pops off the page, the other doesn't. A team that's great year after year, WS or no, is liable to mint lifelong fans in a way that a team that's just good enough to win its division over and over again.

Beyond all that, I think it's clear that the Dodgers just aren't being run like a business, with it in mind to maximize profit. You don't put Magic Johnson forward as the face of your ownership group if you aren't in it, in some degree, for the love of Angelenos.
   95. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: February 07, 2021 at 07:52 PM (#6004228)
They've clearly concluded it's worth the money to them to increase their chances at a WS the 2-3% that Bauer gives them.


This would value winning the World Series at 1.32 billion to 2 billion, minus the extra revenue from whatever other games Bauer might win for you. Those numbers seem to be way too high.

A team that's great year after year, WS or no, is liable to mint lifelong fans in a way that a team that's just good enough to win its division over and over again.


Maybe. But that's something that's going to be hard to put some numbers on. Much harder than drawing up a marginal revenue to wins curve.

Beyond all that, I think it's clear that the Dodgers just aren't being run like a business, with it in mind to maximize profit. You don't put Magic Johnson forward as the face of your ownership group if you aren't in it, in some degree, for the love of Angelenos.


This is possible. Personally, I have a hard time imagining dropping billions of dollars on a toy rather than an investment vehicle, but then maybe people who have billions of dollars feel differently about it. As for Magic Johnson: having Angelenos love your team is probably a good business decision for a team that plays in LA.
   96. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 10:34 PM (#6004233)
Personally, I have a hard time imagining dropping billions of dollars on a toy rather than an investment vehicle, but then maybe people who have billions of dollars feel differently about it.


Well, yeah.

I think we all got too addicted to thinking of baseball teams as purely economic entities. They're not. You don't buy a baseball team to get rich. You buy a baseball team because you are rich, and you want at least some people to know about it.

This would value winning the World Series at 1.32 billion to 2 billion, minus the extra revenue from whatever other games Bauer might win for you. Those numbers seem to be way too high.


I mean, again, it seems clear that you're not thinking about this right, and that probably none of us do. Baseball teams are not -- or at least not only -- moneymaking machines. That 2-3% has value that isn't monetary. A great deal of the value of a baseball team isn't monetary. If you have billions of dollars to throw around, as an individual or a group or anything, and your only goal is to make the number of dollars you have increase, there are far better places to put it than a baseball team. There's a reason hedge funds invest in things like oil, mining, and a million other things, but not sports teams.

Just because we can quantify reasonably well what a player is worth on the field doesn't mean we can quantify at all what they're worth to any given team, its fans, and its ownership. Thinking about it that way is kinda dumb, really.
   97. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 10:35 PM (#6004234)
As I said many many years ago, the point is not to win the Fangraphs Memorial $/WAR Derby. It's to win the goddamned World Series.
   98. rr: cosmopolitan elite Posted: February 07, 2021 at 10:56 PM (#6004237)
I’d guess that something like 40% of American MLB players are Trump supporters; I don’t see any reason why it would be much different than the population as a whole,


I'd guess it is around 70.

This is a good thread, but I agree with the idea that signing Bauer makes baseball sense for the Dodgers and should not be overthought. They have money; he's really good, and they want to keep on winning big.
   99. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: February 07, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6004239)
I'd guess it is around 70.


Yeah, baseball players, at least the American ones, are disproportionately white and southern. Baseball is an expensive sport to play as an American youth, so I'd guess they're probably disproportionately well-off, even before they signed any sports contracts. They also spend all their time hanging around one another. Also, a lot of them are dipshits, for lack of a more delicate way of putting it. I would expect that a lot more of them are Trumpistas than the general population.
   100. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 08, 2021 at 09:49 AM (#6004247)
As I said many many years ago, the point is not to win the Fangraphs Memorial $/WAR Derby. It's to win the goddamned World Series.

Which is why every team spends $250M per year? Making money is more important than winning for at least half the owners. It's at least an equal goal for the other half.

Signing Bauer increases the Dodgers from something like 10% to 11%.
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