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Tuesday, March 02, 2021

Trevor Story Rumors: Rockies Contract Extension Won’t Happen ‘Anytime Soon’

The Colorado Rockies reportedly aren’t expected to sign All-Star shortstop Trevor Story to a contract extension “anytime soon.”

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported Tuesday the Rockies don’t currently have the budget flexibility to make an offer to Story, who can become a free agent after the 2021 season.

The 28-year-old Texas native burst on to the scene with 27 home runs in just 97 appearances during his 2016 rookie season, and he really hasn’t stopped slugging ever since.

Story has posted a .277/.343/.535 triple-slash line with 134 homers and 80 stolen bases in 603 regular-season games over the past five years. His 17.9 WAR over that time span ranks fifth among MLB shortstops, per FanGraphs.

He explained when spring training got underway last week that he’s focused on the upcoming season, not his contract situation.

“I’m focused on personally being the best teammate I can be,” Story told reporters. “I try not to look too far ahead. I’m trying to be where my feet are, which is right here in spring training with the Rockies.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 02, 2021 at 03:55 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rockies, trevor story

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   1. puck Posted: March 02, 2021 at 08:17 PM (#6007321)
Shocking. There is a glut of shortstops, plus the CBA negotiations for the 2021-2022 offseason though.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 02, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6007329)
The last MLB free agent the Rockies signed was Daniel Murphy, in December of 2018.
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 02, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6007334)
So the Rockies are just not going to try are they?

This stinks for their fans(or at least the one guy we know around here...)

Tom N. to the red courtesy phone...Tom N. are you here?
   4. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: March 02, 2021 at 10:44 PM (#6007342)
This stinks for their fans(or at least the one guy we know around here...)

Tom N. to the red courtesy phone...Tom N. are you here?


Dang, no respect for puck.
   5. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 02, 2021 at 11:22 PM (#6007352)
I know, I know, I know, but....

home: 994ops
road: 760ops

21 career WAR, with two 6 WAR seasons.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: March 03, 2021 at 12:46 AM (#6007359)
NL avg SS OPS 2016-20: 736

So, at worst, a slightly above-average hitting SS who's about +10 defensively (or substantially less by statcast).

Now I'm not a big believer in the Coors hangover so I won't go there. Seems to me that most of the guys who carry over success after leaving Coors were guys who, at least by the time they left, had hit pretty well on the road already. Which might be Story who has hit 780, 767, 792 over 2018-20. Nobody's gonna confuse that with Lindor but then Lindor will end up with about $52 M over his 3 arb years while Story will end up at $32.

Now if somebody starts talking about paying Story $30 M a year then "you know those Coors stats aren't real right?" comments are appropriate. But as long as we're talking more Xander money ($20 AAV), we're in the right ballpark.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: March 03, 2021 at 12:58 AM (#6007361)
Now I'm not a big believer in the Coors hangover so I won't go there. Seems to me that most of the guys who carry over success after leaving Coors were guys who, at least by the time they left, had hit pretty well on the road already. Which might be Story who has hit 780, 767, 792 over 2018-20. Nobody's gonna confuse that with Lindor but then Lindor will end up with about $52 M over his 3 arb years while Story will end up at $32.


Whether you believe in the Coors hangover, it's undeniable the Rockies players play 1/3 of their road games in three of the toughest parks in which to hit in the National League. That's going to pull down the road stats a little.
   8. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 03, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6007375)
Troy Tulowitzki, who I think of as the proto-Trevor Story, pretty much fell apart when he left the Rockies. Otoh, LeMahieu started hitting better than ever after he left, so who knows?
   9. puck Posted: March 03, 2021 at 10:11 AM (#6007380)
It seems like more players hit well after leaving than collapsed. Tulo was already fragile, whereas Story and LeMahieu were not. Matt Holiday did fine. Even old guys like Galarraga, Walker and Bichette did ok after leaving. Vinny Castilla fell of a cliff in his last Rockies season and stayed there.

It's been a little more surprising when decent players have come to CO and not done well. I guess Desmond and Murphy were already on the way down but they projected better than they did. Jeff Cirillo was a disappointment.
   10. puck Posted: March 03, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6007383)
I follow the Rockies the most of any team since they're in town but I'm older than the club by a lot so it's not the same for someone who's 15-40 and grew up here. I'm able to most just enjoy the baseball, even if that means the other team at times.

I went to the 2018 NLDS game at Coors field. That was the series vs the Brewers and the Rockies lost the first two in Milwaukee 3-2 and 4-0 and generally just didn't hit. So there were high hopes when they returned to Denver, but it was more of the same, 0-6 loss with 4 hits to get swept. The team basically didn't seem to show up.

In about the 6th inning, when Scott Oberg balked in a run by dropping the ball on the mound, a guy in our row stormed out. At first I thought, whoa, leaving a playoff game, we waited so long for a chance to get these tickets, and it wasn't easy...etc. But a minute later, I got it. If you are emotionally invested in this club, it must really suck.
   11. Tyhand7 Posted: March 03, 2021 at 11:01 AM (#6007392)
I too am a follower of the Rockies however I dont believe I have ever been too emotionally invested as I am truly a Cubs fan. The Rockies team decisions have rarely made much sense to me... Trevor Story is a major league SS that can hit with power, steals bases at a decent success rate, runs the bases well and provides good defense at a premium position. Plus, I have never heard any negative words about attitude, clubhouse issues etc. I dont believe he has missed many games beyond the first season so the comparison to Tulo is not really too accurate. This is the guy you want on your team.
   12. bfan Posted: March 03, 2021 at 12:26 PM (#6007407)
Whether you believe in the Coors hangover, it's undeniable the Rockies players play 1/3 of their road games in three of the toughest parks in which to hit in the National League. That's going to pull down the road stats a little.


And they don't get to add 9 games a year (or 11% of their road schedule) at Coors, as does any other NL west player.
   13. NaOH Posted: March 03, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6007477)
puck:
I follow the Rockies the most of any team since they're in town but I'm older than the club by a lot so it's not the same for someone who's 15-40 and grew up here. I'm able to most just enjoy the baseball, even if that means the other team at times.


Same. I'll follow and root for a local team, but it's without emotional investment, and that makes it easy to enjoy the game as a whole and players on any team.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: March 03, 2021 at 09:56 PM (#6007562)
#9 ... but that's partly my point. For Holliday's last 3 years with the Rox, his road OPS were 819, 860, 892. Nothing wrong with that and his first 4 full years in StL were at 897.

For his years, Galarraga had road OPS of 912, 882, 759, 745, 931. For his last 3 seasons, Walker put up 965, 917, and 766 ... then a 1044 in his split season. His one season in StL was 886. Ellis Burks is another guy who arguably did better outside of Coors ... from 94-97 his road OPS went 933, 755, 903, 820 ... then 927 in his split year. Over his next 4 seasons, he put up a 946.

The guys I found who hit "well" in their post-Rox career (not many) mostly seemed to hit really well on the road during (or at least near the end) of their Rox tenure. They did sometimes hit even better than those road numbers after leaving but for Burks and Galarraga they had (almost) never hit that well before getting to Coors. And of course that was during sillyball which complicates stuff.

Until LeMahieu, I can't think of anybody's who has had success post-Rox since Holliday. Who knows what to do with LeMahieu since his production has just shot through the roof? His road numbers weren't good though.

I guess there's Fowler. His road numbers for 11-12 were OK (given his overall numbers) then terrible for 13 but his 2014-15 OPS were pretty much in line with his career averages. He had big years in 16-17.
   15. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: March 03, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6007576)
Until LeMahieu, I can't think of anybody's who has had success post-Rox since Holliday.


It's not you. It's that so few decent or better hitters have left Colorado when they were at that level. And yet... Marco Scutaro did better in San Francisco than he did in Colorado.
   16. puck Posted: March 03, 2021 at 11:44 PM (#6007577)
Until LeMahieu, I can't think of anybody's who has had success post-Rox since Holliday.

Walt, you've brought this up before and I guess I don't understand your point. Are you trying to say you know which Rockies are going to hit well when they leave based on their road stats with the Rockies?

Who *hasn't* hit well after leaving, where "well" means "what did for the Rockies," which might have actually been bad.

Tulo's been mentioned, but was this a guy who missed Coors or a guy who was broken? He didn't have much of a chance to show what he could do post-Coors.

A lot of players don't leave until there are signs they're on the way down. The Rockies under O'Dowd and Bridich have not had any sense of a cycle. If they happen upon a middling guy who ends up surprisingly decent or even good, like Atkins, Hawpe, Barmes, they don't tend get the cheap years out of those guys and flip them for prospects, they ride them until they don't seem good any more. I guess they thought they were making such a decision on LeMahieu and he went and got better on them.

Who has left or been traded before being old? Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Fowler, Chris Iannetta? They seemed to do fine...OPS+-wise anyway.

Going through post-Holiday BB-ref team pages:
Ian Stewart sucked after leaving, but he also sucked in his last season with the Rockies, which is why he was traded.
Miguel Olivo declined, but was also a catcher in his age 32 year.
Mark Ellis was about the same, but like Olivo only spent a year with the Rockies (I'd forgotten they had Ellis).
Ty Wigginton, 85 OPS+ at age 33 following a 86 year with CO. Another one season guy.
Josh Rutledge didn't get much playing time after leaving.
Chris Nelson neither, though he did do worse.
Michael Cuddyer stunk after leaving. He was 36.
Justin Morneau dropped off, he was 35.
Drew Stubbs did worse after leaving.
Mark Reynolds did about the same after leaving, so they brought him back for one last season to make sure his career was dead.
Age 32 Gerardo Parra was a little worse (76 to 80 OPS+)! But...baby shark must be worth 4 points of OPS+ in intangibles.
Brandon Barnes only got 21 PA's.


So, players who hit worse after leaving:

Tulo
Ian Stewart
Josh Rutledge
Chris Nelson
Michael Cuddyer
Justin Morneau
Drew Stubbs

The post-Holliday departure players who were good for the Rockies who weren't after leaving:

Cuddyer
Tulo
Drew Stubbs (114 OPS+ in 2014, released after a 50K in 114 PA start to 2015)


If you're just trying to find out who's going to hit better after leaving CO...never mind. /Emily Litella
   17. Bourbon Samurai stays in the fight Posted: March 05, 2021 at 12:38 PM (#6007761)
In about the 6th inning, when Scott Oberg balked in a run by dropping the ball on the mound, a guy in our row stormed out. At first I thought, whoa, leaving a playoff game, we waited so long for a chance to get these tickets, and it wasn't easy...etc. But a minute later, I got it. If you are emotionally invested in this club, it must really suck.


Yeah watching your team get blown out in a playoff game, especially when you have paid a big premium for the tickets, is really dispiriting. I was at the Nats 12-2 loss to St. Louis in the 2012 NLDS and man, it sucked.

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