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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Frostad was asked why the significant optimism earlier this month of a quick return has now led to a condition – costovertebral dysfunction at T5 – where there’s more concern.
“This is a pretty rare condition that he has right now in his back,” Frostad said. “The doctor (Robert Watkins), who is one of the most well-known spine surgeons in the country, if not the world, doesn’t see a lot of these.
“And for it to happen in a baseball player, we just have to take into consideration what he puts himself through with hitting, swinging on a daily basis, just getting prepared. And then also playing in the outfield. … There’s so many things that can aggravate it. But this doctor hasn’t seen a lot of it.”
Burn it down. Burn it all down.
Sporting News free article link.
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1. The Duke Posted: July 27, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6088644)Here's hoping it is manageable!
There is no better place for treatment for spinal related issues.
They see regular folks also, but that clinic has picture upon picture of athletes who have received treatment there.
If Dr. Watkins hasn't seen it, you can bet it's rare.
I think people barely realize what a historic talent he was already and if he has a Griffeyesque (for a random example) back-half, I wonder what his overall general perception will be… maybe not even as high as Griffey Jr, undeservingly.
Well, Griffey from 2001-10 was roughly 1000 G, 4000 AB, 900 H, 200 HR...and about 8 WAR. Total.
Staple that onto Trout's career to date and you've got about 2360 G, 9000 AB, 2400 H, 530 HR and 88 WAR. Solid, but not spectacular. He'll still go into the HOF, probably pretty quickly, because voters will remember what a stud he was. But, oh, what might have been!
What could possibly be gained by talking to the press about Trouts injury
I continue to find it odd that players are basically treated like race horses when it comes to how teams talk about them
I continue to find it odd that players are basically treated like race horses when it comes to how teams talk about them
The fans want to know why the best player on the planet isn't playing. He's signed through 2030. What harm can it do?
In hockey, people go out with injuries all the time and they don't describe them - nobody is worse off for not knowing.
For reference
Chipper Jones: 2499 G, 8984 AB, 2726 H, 468 HR and 85.3 WAR.
Griffey's WAR was kinda killed by his defense. From 31-35, he still hit pretty well (when he could step in the box) with a 130 OPS+ but, per bWAR, he had the defensive value of a DH while playing CF. Maybe if the Reds had moved him to 1B or traded him to an AL team to DH, Griffey would have been able to play more (and maybe hit better).
That 130 OPS+ might sound "bad" but Griffey had OPS+ of 139 and 133 at ages 29-30 so it's possible the bat had already dropped from its peak before the injuries took over and those injuries didn't really affect his bat (they cratered his defense just everybody ignored that). Everything started going wrong at 36 but that's true for lots of players.
For now, we can hope that Trout will be at least Frank Thomas (23 WAR 31+) or Chili Davis (18 WAR) or Mantle (20 WAR) or Winfield (27 from 31-40 ... durable but then missed all of age 37 and half of 38) with the possiblity of Edgar. Unfortunately "back problems" bring Mattingly to mind too.
The second half of Trout's career wasn't going to be as good as the first half. That's just not how these things work. But man, Chili Davis comps for Trout are very discouraging.
Thru age 26
Thru age 27
Thru age 28
But despite the OPS+ being the same still (176) , Thru age 30 Mickey has left Trout in the dust now as the PA Gap has climbed to over 1200
Not as healthy as Mickey Mantle over the 2nd half of his career is not something I expected for Trout
This is partly because Mantle's durability is kinda under-rated. He was extremely durable with >6300 PAs from 20-29 (in shorter seasons). He's 7th all-time in PAs through age 29. Then he never missed a full season and was able to drag those weary bones out there for over 500 PAs even in his last two seasons, so 3200 PAs from 30-36 ... about 5 full seasons of play in 7 years really isn't that bad. Reggie played forever and is still only about one season ahead over those ages. It was about 400 more PA than Griffey, about 450 more than Reggie Smith.
And don't go dissin' Chili. He's one of those guys who found his stroke at 30. From ages 31-37, he had a 131 OPS+ in 4000 PA, mainly dragged down by a bad age 33 season. Sure, Mike Trout 135 OPS+ DH is not what we're hoping for but hopefully it will be enough to get him to 100 WAR and 500 HRs, probably 1500 R. (He has only a very slim chance at 3000 hits and a better but still small chance at 1500 RBI even if he ages well.) I put him in as a "you don't have to be as good as Frank Thomas to be productive in your 30s" example ... plus his nickname is Chili and he has a great last name too. I also considered Rico Carty for that slot. :-)
165 OPS+ after age 30 6th best all time, (minimum 3000 PA)
Another guy who was on a HOF track through age 30 and then was completely derailed by back injuries is David Wright. His last "full" season (134 games) was at 31, and he only played 77 more games after that before retiring.
Mantle's a player would like to have seen with today's medical procedures; such as arthroscopic surgery.
165 OPS+ after age 30 6th best all time, (minimum 3000 PA)
I think Mantle's offense was hugely under-rated at the time because he didn't do it with an elite BA. People probably thought he wasn't as good a hitter as DiMaggio. If he could have done the proverbially swap of 50 BB for 50 singles, people would have thought he was the second coming of the Babe.
I'm like you, I don't need or want to know anything more than 1. back problem 2. when he should be back 3. whether it's chronic or not etc... just the basics. But there is a point to be made that by putting the full name/condition out there, it might raise awareness for something and that in turn can eventually push some more research into it or some available research on something parallel might be useful to treating this that someone has missed etc.
Odd, I remember the Rusty Staub trade as being for a player who refused to report to Montreal. In fact Donn Clendenon refused to report to Houston so instead the Expos sent Jack Billingham, Skip Guinn and $100K to replace him in the deal (which also included Jesus Alou).
Then the Expos moved Clendenon for Steve Renko, Kevin Collins and two guys who never made it to the majors. Which feels like a pretty steep decline in value in a fairly short period. I mean Renko and Billingham aren't that far off. Guinn and Collins are who cares, but $100k was a non-trivial amount of cash back then.
And I think his simply refusing to go to Houston damaged Clendenon's value. Malcontent and all that.
In the end I think Jay Buhner might be a reasonable comp as a fielder. He threw well but was among the slower RF. He had a very strong arm for a 1B. Might allow him to make some plays that other 1B couldn't make in that one year.
By the end of his career he'd lost enough speed that his arm didn't matter. You kind of had to DH him.
As I said, I don't worry much about single year totalzone results. I know his rep while active wasn't positive. Mostly due to a high number of errors in 1965/66. He did have a reasonable arm for a 1B and was more mobile than a lot of 1B. If you've played strat, he's the kind of guy who in his good years would get a 3 with a high e rating.
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