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Saturday, December 29, 2007

TSN: Fraley: Who’s getting the nod on my Hall of Fame ballot

Fear not, Wally Bunker fans…there’s still hope!

Jack Morris— One game does not make a Hall of Famer, but Morris’ Game 7 masterpiece in the 1991 World Series might be the exception to the rule. The relentless big-game pitcher also led the ‘80s in wins (162) and complete games (133) and made 515 consecutive starts during his career.

...Tim Raines and Jim Rice received thorough consideration but no vote.

Raines’ case was hurt by his reluctance to run in all situations, as Rickey Henderson did. Raines seemed at times too concerned about preserving his stolen-base percentage.

Repoz Posted: December 29, 2007 at 10:56 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history

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   1. hscs Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:11 PM (#2656563)
Tim Raines and his reluctance to be bad at baseball does not deserve a vote!
   2. baudib Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2656564)
Raines’ case was hurt by his reluctance to run in all situations, as Rickey Henderson did. Raines seemed at times too concerned about preserving his stolen-base percentage.



This might be the dumbest argument against someone ever. Wow.
   3. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:14 PM (#2656565)
I was about to post, possibly word-for-word, what baudib wrote in #2. Wow, indeed.
   4. WallyBackmanFan Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:17 PM (#2656567)
That's the end of new HOF arguments. Instead of crying "Newfangled!" he's giving Raines credit for being ahead of almost everyone sabermetrically, and using that assumed awareness to keep him out? I must've missed the 1985 Tim Raines Baseball Abstract where he wrote about Bert Blyleven's K/BB ratio.
   5. Dr Love Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:24 PM (#2656569)
Raines’ case was hurt by his reluctance to run in all situations


So what, you wanted him to run in situations were running would be a really bad idea?
   6. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:32 PM (#2656570)
This seals it: the Hall of Fame voting season is my least favorite time to be a baseball fan. My faith in humanity is dwindling.

Edit -- While reading these articles, I frequently feel like the high school principal/moderator in Billy Madison after Billy's speech focusing on "The Puppy Who Lost His Way" in response to the question about the Industrial Revolution.
   7. Mbvlckd Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2656574)
I will echo the other comments on Fraley's Raines argument. He's obviously looking for an excuse to keep Raines out, and actually comes up with a reason to put Raines IN. A remarkable rhetorical accomplishment, but not in the way Fraley intends.

Does Fraley believe that Don Larsen belongs in the Hall of Fame?
   8. Esoteric Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2656579)
Before the BBTF howler monkeys descend upon this guy and rip him to shreds for these two (admittedly dumb) arguments, will they please RTFA see that the rest of his ballot is pretty decent? Blyleven, Gossage, and Trammell are all solid choices. Dawson is defensible. I disagree with Murphy, Morris, and Parker, but they not outrageously stupid picks. The logic he uses to exclude Raines is, though.
   9. Mbvlckd Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2656580)
Bill James' first nationally-published Abstract came out in 1982. That was the first burst of sabermetric awareness to penetrate into the baseball mass consciousness. That was twenty-five years ago.

In 1987, remarking on Andre Dawson's MVP award, James wrote that "there are occasions in your professional life in which you feel you're not making any progress. [Dawson's MVP award] is one of mine." That was twenty years ago.

And after all these years, you STILL see stuff like those Raines and Morris arguments, which don't make any sense in ANY world.

I can't explain it, either.
   10. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 29, 2007 at 11:56 PM (#2656581)
I'm more confused by the support that Alan Trammell seems to get rather than Raines. At least Raines was the best, er THIRD or fourth or fifth most valuable player (after Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Jeff Reardon and Steve Rogers) on all those champion...er, third place(?) Expos teams he played on.

Can we waive the five year rule and just let Rickey Henderson in now instead of next year? I can't WAIT to hear the speech!

I've written about Raines (and other potential Hall of Famers) over at my blog...The Hall of Very Good. Check it out!
   11. Mark Donelson Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2656583)
Jeff Reardon? OMG.
   12. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2656584)
Before the BBTF howler monkeys descend upon this guy and rip him to shreds for these two (admittedly dumb) arguments, will they please RTFA see that the rest of his ballot is pretty decent? Blyleven, Gossage, and Trammell are all solid choices. Dawson is defensible. I disagree with Murphy, Morris, and Parker, but they not outrageously stupid picks. The logic he uses to exclude Raines is, though.
I did RTFA, and the problem is that all his picks are stupid. Some of them come to the right result, but the logic is no better than the logic for Raines.

Actually, that's not really right; it implies that he uses logic, when it's clear that he doesn't. This is the point I try to make about sportswriters all the time -- although, frankly, it's hardly unique to sportswriters: he makes decisions first, and then throws out random words to fill the column where he writes about those decisions. We here at BTF sit there and try to dissect those words and point out how silly the arguments are, how only a stupid person could think that they support the conclusions. But they were never intended to support the conclusions. They don't represent the thought process behind those conclusions.

Do you think he actually voted for Trammell because Trammell has more gold gloves than Ripken and hit .300 more times than Ripken? He voted for Trammell because he wanted to vote for Trammell.
   13. Tuque Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:06 AM (#2656585)
Another article had complaints about the fact that someone out there is going to put Jack Morris on their ballot and leave off Bert Blyleven. Who'da known that someone would put Jack Morris on their ballot but leave off Tim Raines?

Even if he did decide to ignore the 808 stolen bases at an 84% clip, did he miss the fact that he also had a career OBP of .385 and OPS+ of 123 while batting leadoff and playing good defense, etc., etc....? I don't find this aggravating, necessarily. I find this distant and unfathomable. Like aliens, or the size of the sun.
   14. jamcadbury Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2656587)
Gerry Fraley used to write for the Dallas Morning News.

There's a reason why so many Ranger fans in the Metroplex were glad to see him go.
   15. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2656590)
Raines’ case was hurt by his reluctance to run in all situations, as Rickey Henderson did. Raines seemed at times too concerned about preserving his stolen-base percentage.

Mr. Fraley, what you've just typed is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent comment were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in the world is now dumber for having read it. May God have mercy on your soul.
   16. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2656598)
Jeff Reardon? OMG.


152 saves in five and a half seasons is pretty good I'd say. Say what you want to about the guy...for a stretch, he was every bit the big game closer that people perceive Sutter or Gossage to be. He was (at one point), the career saves leader.

I've written about some potential Hall of Famers over at my blog...The Hall of Very Good. Check it out!
   17. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2656604)
Dude, we get it: you have your own blog.

You don't have to include that plug underneath every one of your posts.
   18. Baldrick Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:38 AM (#2656606)
173 saves in five seasons is pretty good I'd say. Say what you want to about the guy...for a stretch, he was every bit the big game closer that people perceive Sutter or Gossage to be. He is the single season saves leader.

Better than that lug Frank Thomas, that's for sure.
   19. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2656618)
Baldrick...

I didn't say Reardon was the most valuable member of the Expos. I just said that on a team with him, Rogers, Carter and Dawson...Raines might have only been the third or even fifth most valuable.

And since you brought up Thigpen...that five year span that you so affectionately reference, Thomas only played with Thigpen for two of them. Hell, the 1990 season where Thigpen set the single season saves record...Thomas was still in the minors! I guess it's a damn shame that Thigpen was never Hall eligible.

I'm sure you knew all that though.
   20. Srul Itza Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:55 AM (#2656620)
Tell the admins to take down the link before kevin reads this:

Rice was a superlative offensive player but lost out because of his sub-par defensive work in left


If he doesn't have an aneurysm, he make take out a contract on the guy.
   21. Baldrick Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2656623)
I just said that on a team with him, Rogers, Carter and Dawson...Raines might have only been the third or even fifth most valuable.

And you were wrong.

that five year span that you so affectionately reference, Thomas only played with Thigpen for two of them.

And yet he was still substantially more valuable than Thigpen over that period.
   22. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:02 AM (#2656626)
And you were wrong.


I guess we have differing opinions...I'm not shocked.


And yet he was still substantially more valuable than Thigpen over that period.


In the two years they played together or the three they didn't? You're making little to no sense here.
   23. Greg Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:36 AM (#2656646)
Actually he's being very clear

Thomas' 2 years > Thigpen's 5 years

EDIT: My apologies if I'm reading you wrong Baldrick
   24. Srul Itza Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:36 AM (#2656647)
As a personal favor to the dozens of us who have him on ignore, please do not quote his comments.

Thank you for your courtesy and anticipated cooperation in this matter.
   25. Greg Posted: December 30, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2656650)
Even ignoring the value of the save as a statistic, some 5-year runs by a few random dudes

Jeff Shaw 194
Randy Myers 188
Armando Benitez 185
Rod Beck 184
Jose Mesa 181
Jason Isringhausen 173
F. Cordero 167
Dave Righetti 162
Eric Gagne 161
Eddie Guardado 153

152 saves over 5+ years isn't really that impressive
   26. Mr. Met's Protege Posted: December 30, 2007 at 02:56 AM (#2656675)
My non-existent Hall of Fame ballot contains the following six names:

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Alan Trammell
Rich Gossage
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines

To me Gossage and Dawson should have been shoo-ins a long time ago. I have no problem if you want Jim Rice, Dave Parker, Lee Smith, and Jack Morris in too. Would the Hall of Fame be a lesser achievement with 10 or 15 guys added? I don't think so. The six guys I would vote in, plus the four guys I put on the fence are all as good or better than many current HOF members.
   27. Sawney Snows Posted: December 30, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2656678)
Better than that lug Frank Thomas, that's for sure.

Thomas's case is hurt by his reluctance to swing at all types and locations of pitches, as Tony Perez did. Thomas seems at times too concerned about preserving his on-base percentage.
   28. Sawney Snows Posted: December 30, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2656679)
As a personal favor to the dozens of us who have him on ignore, please do not quote his comments.

You are missing quite the intriguing dichotomy then. While the attempts at logic never develop in quality from one thread to the next, the blog plugs become consistently more brazen and grandiose.
   29. shock Posted: December 30, 2007 at 03:18 AM (#2656680)
27 would be a lot funnier if people didn't actually say that about Thomas in sincerity.
   30. Baldrick Posted: December 30, 2007 at 03:59 AM (#2656691)
EDIT: My apologies if I'm reading you wrong Baldrick

Nope, you're exactly right. Frankly, I'd take just one year from Thomas over all five from Thigpen. Apart from the one (admittedly very good) season, he was mostly pumping out slightly above average pitching as a reliever.

Oh, and the idea that there is an imaginable world where Jeff Reardon (Jeff Reardon!!!111) was better than Tim Raines in the early 80s is beyond ludicrous. Why not just claim that Joe Dobson was better than Ted Williams or that Luis Ugueto was better than Edgar Martinez. It would be just as reasonable.

I wasn't sure it was possible to say something more abusrd than the justification for not voting for Raines in the intro, but you managed to come close a measly 10 posts into the discussion with this Reardon v. Raines thing.

EDIT: you folks are probably onto something with the "ignore" function, now that I think about it.
   31. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:09 AM (#2656708)
As a personal favor to the dozens of us who have him on ignore, please do not quote his comments. Thank you for your courtesy and anticipated cooperation in this matter.


Good work ignoring me, LawDog. For the record, I believe my comments have initiated more conversation (both positive AND negative) on these boards then a plea to "ignore" me. By the way...do they not practice free speech as part of Law 101 in Hawaii?

Just as you are entitled to NOT reading what I've written (however, the hits to my site from Hawaii suggest you don't practice what you preach)...I'm entitled to write whatever I please.

You can fool the people here, Srul...but not Sitemeter.
   32. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2656710)
152 saves over 5+ years isn't really that impressive


Actually, given the timeframe that Reardon did it (1982-1986)...it kinda is. I appreciate the leg work that you did to attempt to prove me wrong, but having a run like that in the last decade isn't as impressive as what Reardon or Righetti (1984-1988) accomplished.

Citing the guys you did...really, is that the best you've got? Most of these guys started their run when they got one inning (or fewer) saves. Look at what Reardon (and Righetti, since you brought him into the picture) did compared to the others that pitched when they did. Hell, start with Sutter and Gossage. You'll find that Gossage NEVER had a five year run like Reardon did saveswise...whereas Sutter did.

So yes, Reardon was VERY valuable to the Expos in the early 80s.
   33. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:24 AM (#2656711)
Oh, and the idea that there is an imaginable world where Jeff Reardon (Jeff Reardon!!!111) was better than Tim Raines in the early 80s is beyond ludicrous. Why not just claim that Joe Dobson was better than Ted Williams or that Luis Ugueto was better than Edgar Martinez. It would be just as reasonable.


I didn't say he was "better"...I said that a case could be made that Raines probably was the third to fith most valuable member of the Expos once you factor in Steve Rogers, Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Jeff Reardon and Rock. The more I think about it...the more Al Oliver needs to be brought into this discussion as well!
   34. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:24 AM (#2656712)
EDIT: you folks are probably onto something with the "ignore" function, now that I think about it.


Will power alone doesn't allow you to do this?
   35. Greg Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2656717)
Well looking at particular Montreal teams

1981
Gullickson is the ace, but the top players are clearly either Dawson or Raines.

1982
Top 3 would be Carter, Rogers...Reardon had an excellent season.
Raines had a pretty bad year.

1983
No starters were particularly awesome
Bryn Smith was the best reliever on the team
Best player comes down to Andre Dawson and Tim Raines
I think I'd take Raines with the .393 OBP and 90 steals...but it's not ridiculous to say Dawson.

1984
Raines clearly the best player on the Expos.
No ace in the rotation
Reardon has the 4th best ERA out of the regulars in the pen

1985
Hesketh pretty good in the rotation. None of the hitters come close to Raines
Reardon has a pretty bad year, ERA+ of 107
Tim Burke blows him out of the water

1981-1985
The way I see it
Raines is clearly #1 twice, disputably #1 twice (at worst 2nd in those years) and nowhere to be seen once
Reardon is in the discussion once (1982) and isn't even the best RELIEVER on the team most years
   36. Greg Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:47 AM (#2656723)
I may be taking this too far
But Reardon was excellent in 1981-1982

But in 1983, 1984 and 1985 I would argue the Expos were hurt by him closing games rather than someone else.

1983
Reardon - 92IP 3.03 78/44
Smith - 155.3IP 2.49 101/43
James - 50IP 2.88 23/3

1984
Reardon - 87IP 2.90 79/37
Schatzeder - 136IP 2.71 89/36
Lucas - 53IP 2.72 42/20
McGaffigan - 46IP 2.54 39/15

1985
Reardon - 87.7IP 3.18 67/26
Burke - 120.3IP 2.39 87/44

1981-1982 Reardon was valuable to the Expos, I agree with. 1983-1985...I don't see it.
   37. Jesus Melendez Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:57 AM (#2656730)
Thanks for the breakdown, Greg. Out of curiosity...what did you find about the number of saves by a pitcher during Reardon's time with the Expos. Without looking, I'd think that Sutter and Quisenberry are in the same ballpark as Reardon.

For the record, you left out the five year stretch of another player that I would like to someday see in Cooperstown...Lee Smith. He was sick from 1991-1995. Well, saveswise that is...but I'm sure PLENTY of them were less than one inning saves.
   38. baudib Posted: December 30, 2007 at 05:59 AM (#2656732)
Incidentally, not only is Fraley's assertion about Raines mindblowingly idiotic, it is incorrect.

In 1981, Raines had 70 singles, 45 walks and 2 HBP. He had 13 doubles, 7 triples and 5 homers. He stole 71 bases in 82 attempts. That absolutely has to be the highest percentage of SB attempts per times reached base by a real player (i.e., not Herbie Washington or Otis Nixon year pumped with pinchrunning duties) in history.

He never approached that type of rate again, but it is beyond stupid to suggest a guy who stole more than 70 bases six times wasn't running enough.
   39. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 30, 2007 at 06:02 AM (#2656735)
Thomas's case is hurt by his reluctance to swing at all types and locations of pitches, as Tony Perez did. Thomas seems at times too concerned about preserving his on-base percentage.


Well done.
   40. DCW3 Posted: December 30, 2007 at 06:03 AM (#2656736)
Thanks for the breakdown, Greg. Out of curiosity...what did you find about the number of saves by a pitcher during Reardon's time with the Expos. Without looking, I'd think that Sutter and Quisenberry are in the same ballpark as Reardon.

Here are the MLB saves leaders between 1981 and 1986. Quisenberry is way out in front, although Reardon is #2. Sutter is only one behind him.
   41. Greg Posted: December 30, 2007 at 06:07 AM (#2656737)
82-86 Saves

Reardon 146 (funny, the last two years he got 41 and 35 saves, even though they were two of his worst years)
Sutter 128 (missed most of '86...if you go 81-85 he has 150)
Smith 143 (he was only a closer for half of 82)
Quinsberry 173
Gossage 124

So I stand corrected. For the early 80s 146 saves over 5 years is pretty good.
Although I'd still have taken any of these guys over Reardon, except for 81-82...then I'd have to think about it.
   42. shock Posted: December 30, 2007 at 09:38 AM (#2656775)
baudib's 38 intrigued me, so I thought I'd check it out.

Years since 1939, with at least a third of a season and 3 AB's per game, I get the following top ten years in terms of stolen base attempts per time on first (SB+CS / 1B+BB+HBP) :

1982 Rickey Henderson 172/223 = 0.7713 (75% success)
1980 Ron LeFlore 116/161 = 0.7205 (83%)
1985 Vince Coleman 135/189 = 0.7142 (81%)
1988 Otis Nixon 59/84 = 0.7029 (77%)
1981 Tim Raines 82/117 = 0.7009 (86%)
1974 Lou Brock 151/252 = 0.6802 (78%)
1986 Vince Coleman 121/180 = 0.6722 (88%)
1980 Omar Moreno 129/192 = 0.6719 (74%)
1986 Eric Davis 91/139 = 0.6547 (87%)
1991 Marquis Grissom 93/146 = 0.6370 (81%)

Just more random trivia!

By the way, notice something in common about the seasons on that list? I bet Vaux does.

These are the top ten since 1994:

2003 Alex Sanchez 62/114 0.5439 (71%)
1996 Tom Goodwin 88/170 0.5176 (75%)
2005 Scott Podsednik 82/168 0.4881 (72%)
1997 Deion Sanders 69/142 0.4859 (81%)
2004 Scott Podsednik 83/175 0.4743 (84%)
2006 Corey Patterson 54/114 0.4737 (83%)
1995 Kenny Lofton 69/148 0.4662 (78%)
1999 Tony Womack 85/185 0.4595 (85%)
1999 Juan Encarnacion 45/98 0.4592 (73%)
1997 Brian Hunter 92/204 0.4510 (80%)

And prior to 1980:

1974 Lou Brock 151/222 0.6802 (78%)
1965 Maury Wills 125/209 0.5981 (75%)
1977 Frank Taveras 88/150 0.5867 (80%)
1977 Omar Moreno 69/122 0.5656 (77%)
1966 Lou Brock 92/166 0.5542 (80%)
1976 Davey Lopes 73/135 0.5407 (86%)
1914 Fritz Maisel 91/175 0.5200 (81%)
1979 Willie Wilson 95/183 0.5191 (87%)
1974 Morris Nettles 31/60 0.5167 (64%)
1978 Omar Moreno 93/181 0.5138 (76%)

Here are the 1950's:

1959 Luis Aparicio 69/184 0.3750 (81%)
1957 Willie Mays 57/191 0.2984 (67%)
1955 Ken Boyer 39/131 0.2977 (56%)
1956 Willie Mays 50/169 0.2959 (80%)
1955 Jim Rivera 41/145 0.2828 (61%)
1954 Bill Bruton 47/174 0.2701 (72%)
1952 Faye Throneberry 23/95 0.2421 (69%)
1953 Jim Rivera 37/153 0.2418 (59%)
1951 Jim Busby 37/157 0.2357 (70%)
1951 Sam Jethroe 40/171 0.2339 (88%)

Hey, how about top ten career rates?

Min 800 games, 3 AB/G:

Vince Coleman 0.5720 (81%)
Omar Moreno 0.4897 (73%)
Ron LeFlore 0.4342 (76%)
Lou Brock 0.4073 (75%)
Rickey Henderson 0.3895 (81%)
Gary Redus 0.3821 (80%)
Gary Pettis 0.3798 (77%)
Billy North 0.3721 (71%)
Frank Taveras 0.3651 (74%)
Willie Wilson 0.3605 (83%)

Phew...okay, sorry for the long post fellas. Back to the discussion ...
   43. baudib Posted: December 30, 2007 at 12:44 PM (#2656794)
My bad. Raines has the highest success rate (SB)/(1b+bb+HBP) for that season though.

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