Another reclamation project to the Central division to rebuild their career so they can move on to the East or West.

That's a lot of money to spend on a reclamation project. It's a lot to spend on a lefthanded hitting outfielder when the Twins have 5 others on the roster (Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon) who were all better than Gallo last season.

I totally get taking a flyer on him but this seems pricey for a flyer

I totally get taking a flyer on him but this seems pricey for a flyer

Yeah, I'd give him like 1/3, with $1m bonus for every 100 PAS OVER 200.

That's optimistic, Duke. But if he improves, perhaps he'll look at his Midwestern/coastal splits and stay put.

Is there an Umberto's Clam House in Minneapolis?

I sincerely feel for the Twins fans, even if $11,000,000 these days amounts to chump change. But maybe it's just that Gallo can only thrive in an ultra-low pressure environment, which is certainly not what he had in New York or Los Angeles.

Maybe I'm just contrarian, but I think this is a really nice move for the Twins. Yeah, the batting average is brutal, but everything else is still pretty good. And his 2021 season was better than anything Benintendi's ever done. 1/11 is literally nothing for a guy who was very recently an all-star level player.

1/11 is literally nothing for a guy who was very recently an all-star level player.

But they have 5 other guys who should be average players in the same role (LH hitting OF). Is Gallo going to be 1-2 wins above average this year? This is the part of the roster where the Twins already had surplus value. They don't have a starting SS. They need a starting P and two relievers.

Gallo's career average: .199 BA, 109 OPS+

Benintendi's career average: .279 BA, 109 OPS+

IMO Benintendi's more likely to exceed his career average in those two categories than Gallo.

How this guy merits anything beyond a Minor League make-good deal astonishes me.

He had a terrible 2022 ... or a terrible last 600+ PA). Other than that it's 15 WAR and 5 WAA. His 2022 isn't much worse than Schwarber's 2020.

The A's just signed an anonymous reliever for 1/$7. An anonymous reliever with a career 96 ERA+ who put up a 78 ERA+ last year while missing half the season. Will Trevor May put a single butt in a seat? Will he make one highlight on the news? If nothing else, Gallo will hit a few bombs, pop up in the highlight reel once a week and has an outside chance of becoming some kid's favorite player. In a world where Trevor May gets $7, Gallo is probably worth $30.

Will Trevor May put a single butt in a seat?

He has a reasonably popular Twitch and YouTube thing goin on, so yeah. He likely is some kids favorite player. Probably more than one. Not saying he's bringing em in in droves, but it stands to reason that he may get some kid's parent to take them. And really, if the A's can manage to get even a single family or two more to come out to the park, it's probably gonna help their attendance (sadly). Not even saying that one is worth more than the other...that may have just been a poor way to frame it.

Gallo's career average: .199 BA, 109 OPS+

Benintendi's career average: .279 BA, 109 OPS+

IMO Benintendi's more likely to exceed his career average in those two categories than Gallo.

If you paid $11 million to Gallo in each of his past five seasons, you'd be happy in 2018, 2019, and 2021, fine with 2020 when you adjust for season length, and upset in 2022. I'll take those odds any day.

If you paid $15 million to Benintendi in his past 5 seasons, you'd be happy in 2018 and 2022, fine with 2019 and 2021, and upset with 2020. That's worse return than Gallo, and you are committed to five years of that, instead of just one, so the worst case scenarios are way, way worse.

Once the Correa thing went to the moon I realized the Falvine were going to sit back and wait to see how things went once the season got rolling. Another fifty injuries by May 1 and they'd probably liquidate the place, otherwise they'd got shopping like past year. I just realized Gallo's not a right handed hitter. Oh man, I don't understand what's going on now.

He has a reasonably popular Twitch and YouTube thing goin on

Can you translate that into 60-yo-ese?

I think May streams himself playing video games.

I think May streams himself playing video games.

Jesus ... at least pee into a cup.

I'll be here all week!! And until dementia hits (and hopefully a while after, that will be fun! Wait till you hear what I've got to say about Leo Durocher!) Tip your waits!

Not really apropos but a Joey Gallo thread seems like the appropriate place for it... a couple years ago I got curious and looked up the question of "what percentage of major league regulars, players who qualify for the batting title, struck out 100 times or more in a given season?" Before the 1960s it was practically zero. In a random year I checked in the 1980s, 1983 maybe, the answer was around 20%. By about 2000 it had gotten up past 50%. By (I think) 2019 it was 107%.

Not a typo. In modern baseball more players strike out 100 times than qualify for the batting title.

I think maybe, I dunno, we might have let strikeouts get a little out of hand.

Nice work Paste. That's extraordinary.

Last week I asked a friend of mine who has not paid serious attention to baseball in 30 years to guess at what percentage of regular players strike out more than 100 times a season now, with the hint "whatever you think it is, it's higher than that." He hemmed and hawed and eventually said "jeez... 40 percent? It can't be that high."

In faint praise of Joey Gallo: All or Nothin’: The Worst 40-HR Seasons in History

what percentage of major league regulars, players who qualify for the batting title, struck out 100 times or more in a given season?" Before the 1960s it was practically zero. In a random year I checked in the 1980s, 1983 maybe, the answer was around 20%. By about 2000 it had gotten up past 50%. By (I think) 2019 it was 107%.

Not a typo. In modern baseball more players strike out 100 times than qualify for the batting title.

That’s not how probability works. The way the question is phrased, the denominator is is indeed the number of players who qualified for the batting title, but the numerator is the number who qualified for the batting title and stuck out 100 or more times in a season. Since qualifying for the batting title was the condition set, you can’t include anyone who didn’t qualify for the batting title.

If you paid $11 million to Gallo in each of his past five seasons, you'd be happy in 2018, 2019, and 2021, fine with 2020 when you adjust for season length, and upset in 2022. I'll take those odds any day.

But you're not paying for that. You're paying for 2023 which Steamer projects at 188/313/397, 106 wRC+, and 1.1 WAR. And as discussed above, they have plenty of other LH OF who project as well or better.

You're paying for 2023 which Steamer projects at 188/313/397, 106 wRC+, and 1.1 WAR.

Well, the Twins are also paying for Gallo’s potential to be better than that. Presumably they have some reason (hope?) to think they may see Texas Gallo, rather than NYY Gallo.

#21 ... I'll assume the lack of "serious attention" probably also meant not knowing that the average K-rate has risen to 22%. At 502 qualifying PA, the average would be 110 Ks. Add in the guys who had a lower K-rate but exceeded 502, and a good number of them will catch up as well. At 650 PA even a 16% K-rate gets you over 100.

So it's a very cool factoid that there are more with 100 Ks than with 502 PAs but once you think about K rates, it's not much of a surprise.

In 2022, 131 players qualified. 127 players hit 15+ HR; 135 had 175+ TB. Buxton for example had 28 HR and 179 TB (and 116 Ks) in just 382 PA. In 1982, 142 players qualified with 81 15+ HR, 137 had 175+ TB, 23 with 100+ Ks. A small part of what you're seeing is that trends are crossing -- rising Ks (and power) and declining qualifying rates (from about 5.5 per team in 1982 to about 4.3 per team in 2022). But it is quite interesting that the TB rate change isn't so dramatic ... of course ISO/SLG in 2022 wasn't too high.

So 1962? 71 with 15+ HR; 110 with 175+ TB; 12 with 100+ Ks; with 105 qualified (5.25/team). On the other side, 2002: 139 with 15+, 170 with 175+ TB, 74 with 100+ K, and 154 qualified.

Finally back to 2022 ... out of the 131 qualified players, 62 had the 20% K-rate that gets you to 100 at 502 and 108 had the 15.4% K-rate that gets you there at 650. I think I counted 97 with 100+ Ks. The worst BA of a qualified batter with <100 Ks was Santana at 202 with 88 Ks. Of the 33 players below a 240 BA, only 5 Kd fewer than 100 times. The highest qualified BA over 100 Ks was Freeman at 325 but that was in 708 PAs; Goldschmidt at 317 on 141 Ks in 651 PA is probably more what we're looking for. Judge at 311 with 175 Ks.