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Friday, December 16, 2022
The Twins are set to add Joey Gallo’s power bat and strong defense to their roster, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Friday. The deal, which has not been confirmed by the club, is worth $11 million over one year, according to Feinsand.
Gallo will look to turn things around after hitting .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers and a 39.8% strikeout rate over 410 plate appearances for the Yankees and Dodgers in 2022.
A left-handed hitter, Gallo struggled immensely after the Rangers dealt him to the Bronx Bombers in a six-player swap at the 2021 Trade Deadline and was unable to get back on track in 2022. New York traded him to Los Angeles for pitcher Clayton Beeter in another Deadline deal this past summer.
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1. The Duke Posted: December 16, 2022 at 07:12 PM (#6109805)Yeah, I'd give him like 1/3, with $1m bonus for every 100 PAS OVER 200.
But they have 5 other guys who should be average players in the same role (LH hitting OF). Is Gallo going to be 1-2 wins above average this year? This is the part of the roster where the Twins already had surplus value. They don't have a starting SS. They need a starting P and two relievers.
Benintendi's career average: .279 BA, 109 OPS+
IMO Benintendi's more likely to exceed his career average in those two categories than Gallo.
The A's just signed an anonymous reliever for 1/$7. An anonymous reliever with a career 96 ERA+ who put up a 78 ERA+ last year while missing half the season. Will Trevor May put a single butt in a seat? Will he make one highlight on the news? If nothing else, Gallo will hit a few bombs, pop up in the highlight reel once a week and has an outside chance of becoming some kid's favorite player. In a world where Trevor May gets $7, Gallo is probably worth $30.
He has a reasonably popular Twitch and YouTube thing goin on, so yeah. He likely is some kids favorite player. Probably more than one. Not saying he's bringing em in in droves, but it stands to reason that he may get some kid's parent to take them. And really, if the A's can manage to get even a single family or two more to come out to the park, it's probably gonna help their attendance (sadly). Not even saying that one is worth more than the other...that may have just been a poor way to frame it.
If you paid $11 million to Gallo in each of his past five seasons, you'd be happy in 2018, 2019, and 2021, fine with 2020 when you adjust for season length, and upset in 2022. I'll take those odds any day.
If you paid $15 million to Benintendi in his past 5 seasons, you'd be happy in 2018 and 2022, fine with 2019 and 2021, and upset with 2020. That's worse return than Gallo, and you are committed to five years of that, instead of just one, so the worst case scenarios are way, way worse.
Can you translate that into 60-yo-ese?
Jesus ... at least pee into a cup.
I'll be here all week!! And until dementia hits (and hopefully a while after, that will be fun! Wait till you hear what I've got to say about Leo Durocher!) Tip your waits!
Not a typo. In modern baseball more players strike out 100 times than qualify for the batting title.
I think maybe, I dunno, we might have let strikeouts get a little out of hand.
That’s not how probability works. The way the question is phrased, the denominator is is indeed the number of players who qualified for the batting title, but the numerator is the number who qualified for the batting title and stuck out 100 or more times in a season. Since qualifying for the batting title was the condition set, you can’t include anyone who didn’t qualify for the batting title.
If you paid $11 million to Gallo in each of his past five seasons, you'd be happy in 2018, 2019, and 2021, fine with 2020 when you adjust for season length, and upset in 2022. I'll take those odds any day.
But you're not paying for that. You're paying for 2023 which Steamer projects at 188/313/397, 106 wRC+, and 1.1 WAR. And as discussed above, they have plenty of other LH OF who project as well or better.
So it's a very cool factoid that there are more with 100 Ks than with 502 PAs but once you think about K rates, it's not much of a surprise.
In 2022, 131 players qualified. 127 players hit 15+ HR; 135 had 175+ TB. Buxton for example had 28 HR and 179 TB (and 116 Ks) in just 382 PA. In 1982, 142 players qualified with 81 15+ HR, 137 had 175+ TB, 23 with 100+ Ks. A small part of what you're seeing is that trends are crossing -- rising Ks (and power) and declining qualifying rates (from about 5.5 per team in 1982 to about 4.3 per team in 2022). But it is quite interesting that the TB rate change isn't so dramatic ... of course ISO/SLG in 2022 wasn't too high.
So 1962? 71 with 15+ HR; 110 with 175+ TB; 12 with 100+ Ks; with 105 qualified (5.25/team). On the other side, 2002: 139 with 15+, 170 with 175+ TB, 74 with 100+ K, and 154 qualified.
Finally back to 2022 ... out of the 131 qualified players, 62 had the 20% K-rate that gets you to 100 at 502 and 108 had the 15.4% K-rate that gets you there at 650. I think I counted 97 with 100+ Ks. The worst BA of a qualified batter with <100 Ks was Santana at 202 with 88 Ks. Of the 33 players below a 240 BA, only 5 Kd fewer than 100 times. The highest qualified BA over 100 Ks was Freeman at 325 but that was in 708 PAs; Goldschmidt at 317 on 141 Ks in 651 PA is probably more what we're looking for. Judge at 311 with 175 Ks.
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