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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, July 05, 2022Twins, Byron Buxton turn the first 8-5 triple play in MLB history vs. White Sox
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: July 05, 2022 at 09:38 AM | 29 comment(s)
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1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: July 05, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6085563)The White Sox are an embarrassment.
That very well might be curtains. On the 4th of July.
For example, Engel had only just come in to pinch run at 2nd base for Gavin Sheets after Moncada's game tying single. If Engel had been put in to pinch run before Moncada's at bat, he easily goes first to third and none of this happens. great HOF manager you got there.
He really is. The weird thing is he doesn't look like he's running hard.
That's the thing I find so appalling on many of these plays. If the ball isn't caught, the runner on second is almost always going to score.
I absolutely agree this was terrible baserunning, but I would quibble with your point. A good outfielder, if he knows he isn't going to catch the ball, will get himself in position to play the carom off the wall and make a quick throw to his cutoff man, potentially holding a tagging runner at second base. Of course, there are all sorts of things that can go on with that play - maybe the ball caroms oddly, maybe it's a fast enough runner that it doesn't matter, maybe the throw is offline, etc. It's possible that once you factor in all those variables, you get to "almost always." I think it might be a bit less often than that, but it would take better data gathering skills than I possess to figure it out.
From Engel's quote, it seems like that's what he thought was going to happen, and he took off early. But he's got to know that it's Buxton out there, and, regardless of who it is, the ball was so close to either being caught or getting down when he decided to run, he was much better off waiting to see what happened with his foot on second base. And Moncada's baserunning was worse. He should have been standing just on the first base side of second base, staring at the play until he saw what happened. He certainly had enough time to get back to first if the ball was caught.
On retrospect, I'm still comfortable with almost always. But as Tom notes, the absolute worst case scenario is most of a run.
And a good baserunner should be able to properly gauge that. If Engle stays on second, and sees Buxton going all out, he will very likely be able to tag up and get to third if the ball is caught, or score if it is not, Buxton going all out and will likely be in no position to recover and throw in in time to prevent Engle from scoring. Likewise, the moment Engle sees Buxton holding up to position himself to play the carom, Engle can take off and still likely score.
1) I suspect Buxton's elite speed and defense make this play look a little more routine than it actually was (watching Jackie Bradley in his prime in CF was like this a lot - he wouldn't even have to dive for a ball that looked uncatchable off the bat). That doesn't excuse the baserunning, but maybe they all were more certain the ball would drop, and then were confused when they see Buxton in position to make a play.
2) Buxton's throw wasn't very good - it added to the confusion of watching the play unfold. You've got this throw going to nowhere in particular, the third baseman is retrieving it and then jogging back to 2nd base.
Outside of Buxton's great jump and fast wheels, this play is not very memorable.
In fact, if you think about any triple play you've ever seen, it usually does not involve a spectacular defensive play. Rather, it typically involves a combination of a well-struck ball directly at a fielder, and a couple of runners who are either taking off with the pitch, or making really crappy baserunning decisions.
Almost every one I can think of is either:
1) A hard grounder directly to the third base bag, and a third baseman who turns a quick 5-4-3 triple play; or
2) A line drive directly to a middle infielder who catches a pair of runners in a hit-and-run too far off the bag to recover.
His quote indicates that this is what he thought was going to happen. His problem is with the read and he admits as much. But once he read that the ball had a decent chance of being caught (decent enough that he retreated to second base to possibly tag), he just needed to tag. So the read was wrong and THEN the decision was wrong, regardless of what the read was.
This play is 100% on Engle. Moncada is looking at Engle, sees that he doesn't tag, and so he is trying to bust it down to score from 1st on what he thinks is a double. If Moncada looks at the ball, there's no way he scores and it shouldn't be necessary because you just watch your teammate.
Daryl Boston and Joe McEwing have been the base coaches for three consecutive managers (dating back to Robin Ventura).
The .564 SLG is still great, as is his 143 OPS+, and his fielding stats are starting to shape up. But he's still looking suspiciously like Kyle Schwarber (my facetious comparison) on the offensive side.
BB: .222/.299/.564, .863 OPS, 143 OPS+, 22 HR, 73 K in 261 PA (28%)
KS: .219/.336/.513, .853 OPS, 138 OPS+, 25 HR, 101 K in 345 PA (29%)
Both are mostly batting leadoff. Schwarber, surprisingly, has stolen more bases (4/4 vs 2/2 for Buxton).
Good story with Wright who seems to have a solid attitude about things. Well worth the read.
Kyle Schwarber's offense with Byron Buxton's defense is a heck of a major league ballplayer.
Yes.
I'm curious, what's the best season ever from a player with an OBP below .300?
SOME SLUGGERS
Tony Batista had 2.2 WAR in 2001 with a .280 OBP, but an OPS+ of only 87.
Ruben Sierra had a 106 OPS + in 1994 with a .298 OBP, but only 0.3 WAR.
Joe Carter had 1.7 WAR and a 110 OPS+ in 1989 with a .292 OBP.
Dave Kingman had 2.5 WAR and a 129 OPS+ in 1976 with a .286 OBP.
SOME DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Gomez had 2.1 WAR with a .296 OBP in 2008.
Paul Blair's best sub-.300 OBP year was 1972 with 2.5 WAR.
Devon White was below .300 OBP in 1988, 1989 and 1990 and had WAR of 3.4, 4.0, 1.7. That's an interesting comp for Buxton, but he had a sub-100 OPS+ in all three seasons.
SOME SHORTSTOPS
Ozzie Smith had three seasons with an OBP below .300, his WAR was 1.6, 1.0 (strike year), -0.7.
Mark Belanger's best sub-.300 OBP season was 5.0 WAR in 1975 with an OBP of .286.
Andrelton Simmons topped out at 5.8 WAR with an OBP of .296 in 2013.
.299 OBP but 107 OPS+, 4.8 WAR, 25 HR, 28 SB, and 12 Rfield.
I had assumed something like a flyout with 2nd/3rd, with the throw going to 3rd to catch the runner tagging, and an appeal finding the runner on 3rd left early. This is much worse.
Pre-injury Andre Dawson is a decent comp for Buxton. In fact, with Buxton's physical issues, Dawson might end up being a good career comp for him too.
Alex Gonzalez had 5.1 WAR in 2010 with a .294 OBP and +27 Rfield.
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