an unspecified number of incentives

That's the tricky bit. If 7/$73 guaranteed is accurate, let's assume that would be something like $7 for next year (last arb year) then 6/$66. For the oft-injured version of Buxton, that's a great deal and he should run to the bank. For a healthy version of Buxton, that's a disaster. Of course the healthy Buxton is potentially worth 6/$180 or more. That's a lot of ground for incentives to make up plus the Twins deserve some sort of give-back for guaranteeing $73 M. Some ideas:

1. It almost certainly has to have an opt-out clause after 2 or 3 years.
2. Incentives based on PAs but it also probably has to have some vesting options.

So ...

year 1: $7 plus year 2 vests at $25 M if he reaches 502 PA.

year 2 (if not vested): $11 plus $4 M bonuses at 300, 400, 500, 600 PA (so max $27 M). If year 2 vested then year 3 vests at $30 M after 502 PA; if year 2 not vested, then year 3 vests at $25 M after 502 PA.

year 3 (if not vested): $11 plus $4 M bonuses at 300, 400, 500, 600 PA. Twins get first option at 4/$120 (too cheap?) If declined then Buxton gets option at 4/$44.

So still 7/$73 guaranteed. Buxton potentially gets up to 3/$62 if fully healthy then the option potentially takes it to 7/$182. Presumably the Twins don't exercise their option unless he's been fully healthy at least two of those three years.

One problem with all of those is they make him an FA after his age 34 season which is about the worst time to be an FA. So maybe that Twins option needs to be 5 or 6 years at $30, otherwise he did have the option to go FA at 31. He also makes $61 M if he's only healthy in years 2 and 3 but not year 1 which seems not enough reward for being healthy in year 1 (he gets $62) so some monkeying around. Whether any of this would satisfy the union I have no idea.

Still, that guarantees him a ton if he's still hurt all of the time while rewarding him pretty well if he stays healthy and gives the Twins a decent deal and him an opt-out if he's somewhere in between.

I've intrigued myself ... over the first 3 years:

unhealthy all 3: salary of 7/11/11 (3/$29), maybe 1 or 2 PT bonuses, with 4/$44 player option

un/un/healthy: salary of 7/11/11 plus at least $12 in year 3 bonuses (3/$41+) ... Twins probably pass on their option, Buxton surely does (assuming a good season)

un/healthy/un: 7/11/25 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough 4/$44 option for Buxton

un/healthy/healthy: 7/11/25 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough call for Twin

healthy/un/un: 7/25/11 (3/$43) with 4/$44 option

healthy/un/healthy: 7/25/11 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough call for Twins

healthy/healthy/un: 7/25/30 (3/$62) with 4/$120 option ... Buxton would take 4/$44 if he's badly hurt

healthy/healthy/healthy: 7/25/30 (3/$62) with 4/$120 option

So something to iron out in that being healthy in year 3 after being healthy in year 2 doesn't seem to do anything for Buxton. Maybe healthy in years 2 and 3 pushes the option to 5/$150.

That's the tricky bit. If 7/$73 guaranteed is accurate, let's assume that would be something like $7 for next year (last arb year) then 6/$66. For the oft-injured version of Buxton, that's a great deal and he should run to the bank. For a healthy version of Buxton, that's a disaster. Of course the healthy Buxton is potentially worth 6/$180 or more. That's a lot of ground for incentives to make up plus the Twins deserve some sort of give-back for guaranteeing $73 M.

A guy like Buxton shouldn't get a long-term deal. His output just isn't predictable enough. If he wants a long term guarantee, I don't think 50% of his market value is a bad deal. He basically plays 50% of the time.

Someone like Buxton, who has been with a single organization for 10 years, might value free agency itself. The Twins are approaching somewhat of a crossroads and he may want to see which way they turn. And he is not coming from a baseline of zero future dollars - he is all but guaranteed millions of dollars in both 2022 and 2023.

It's not surprising if he both received a good extension offer and did not accept it.

Time for a Twins fire sale. Everything must go!