Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Twins, Byron Buxton Unable To Reach Extension

The Twins and franchise cornerstone Byron Buxton have been unable to come to terms on a contract extension, increasing the likelihood of a full-scale sell-off before Friday’s trade deadline. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes report that the Twins’ initial offer was for $73MM over seven years with an unspecified number of incentives. The Twins “increased the guarantee slightly,” but not enough to come to a long-term agreement. The final guarantee increased to $80MM, tweets The Athletic.

The end result here is not surprising, given the muddled valuation process for a talent like Buxton. When he’s at his best, he’s one of the best players in the game, a five-tool player capable of anchoring a first-division lineup on both sides of the ball from a premium position. The injury concerns, however, have limited his contributions and saddled him with a tricky long-term risk profile.

This season perfectly illustrated the dichotomy of Buxton as a team-building asset. In 27 games, he made 110 trips to the plate and accrued an insane 2.7 fWAR with a .369/.409/.767 line, good for a 217 wRC+. But 27 games of MVP-caliber production from Buxton wasn’t enough to keep the Twins anywhere near contention. They currently have a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:55 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: byron buxton

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2021 at 02:40 AM (#6030378)
an unspecified number of incentives

That's the tricky bit. If 7/$73 guaranteed is accurate, let's assume that would be something like $7 for next year (last arb year) then 6/$66. For the oft-injured version of Buxton, that's a great deal and he should run to the bank. For a healthy version of Buxton, that's a disaster. Of course the healthy Buxton is potentially worth 6/$180 or more. That's a lot of ground for incentives to make up plus the Twins deserve some sort of give-back for guaranteeing $73 M. Some ideas:

1. It almost certainly has to have an opt-out clause after 2 or 3 years.
2. Incentives based on PAs but it also probably has to have some vesting options.

So ...

year 1: $7 plus year 2 vests at $25 M if he reaches 502 PA.

year 2 (if not vested): $11 plus $4 M bonuses at 300, 400, 500, 600 PA (so max $27 M). If year 2 vested then year 3 vests at $30 M after 502 PA; if year 2 not vested, then year 3 vests at $25 M after 502 PA.

year 3 (if not vested): $11 plus $4 M bonuses at 300, 400, 500, 600 PA. Twins get first option at 4/$120 (too cheap?) If declined then Buxton gets option at 4/$44.

So still 7/$73 guaranteed. Buxton potentially gets up to 3/$62 if fully healthy then the option potentially takes it to 7/$182. Presumably the Twins don't exercise their option unless he's been fully healthy at least two of those three years.

One problem with all of those is they make him an FA after his age 34 season which is about the worst time to be an FA. So maybe that Twins option needs to be 5 or 6 years at $30, otherwise he did have the option to go FA at 31. He also makes $61 M if he's only healthy in years 2 and 3 but not year 1 which seems not enough reward for being healthy in year 1 (he gets $62) so some monkeying around. Whether any of this would satisfy the union I have no idea.

Still, that guarantees him a ton if he's still hurt all of the time while rewarding him pretty well if he stays healthy and gives the Twins a decent deal and him an opt-out if he's somewhere in between.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2021 at 03:03 AM (#6030380)
I've intrigued myself ... over the first 3 years:

unhealthy all 3: salary of 7/11/11 (3/$29), maybe 1 or 2 PT bonuses, with 4/$44 player option

un/un/healthy: salary of 7/11/11 plus at least $12 in year 3 bonuses (3/$41+) ... Twins probably pass on their option, Buxton surely does (assuming a good season)

un/healthy/un: 7/11/25 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough 4/$44 option for Buxton

un/healthy/healthy: 7/11/25 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough call for Twin

healthy/un/un: 7/25/11 (3/$43) with 4/$44 option

healthy/un/healthy: 7/25/11 plus at least $12 in year 2 bonuses (3/$55+) ... tough call for Twins

healthy/healthy/un: 7/25/30 (3/$62) with 4/$120 option ... Buxton would take 4/$44 if he's badly hurt

healthy/healthy/healthy: 7/25/30 (3/$62) with 4/$120 option

So something to iron out in that being healthy in year 3 after being healthy in year 2 doesn't seem to do anything for Buxton. Maybe healthy in years 2 and 3 pushes the option to 5/$150.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 26, 2021 at 08:36 AM (#6030383)
That's the tricky bit. If 7/$73 guaranteed is accurate, let's assume that would be something like $7 for next year (last arb year) then 6/$66. For the oft-injured version of Buxton, that's a great deal and he should run to the bank. For a healthy version of Buxton, that's a disaster. Of course the healthy Buxton is potentially worth 6/$180 or more. That's a lot of ground for incentives to make up plus the Twins deserve some sort of give-back for guaranteeing $73 M.

A guy like Buxton shouldn't get a long-term deal. His output just isn't predictable enough. If he wants a long term guarantee, I don't think 50% of his market value is a bad deal. He basically plays 50% of the time.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: July 26, 2021 at 09:00 AM (#6030391)
Someone like Buxton, who has been with a single organization for 10 years, might value free agency itself. The Twins are approaching somewhat of a crossroads and he may want to see which way they turn. And he is not coming from a baseline of zero future dollars - he is all but guaranteed millions of dollars in both 2022 and 2023.

It's not surprising if he both received a good extension offer and did not accept it.
   5. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 26, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6030413)
Time for a Twins fire sale. Everything must go!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogShohei Ohtani has sore arm, might not pitch again this season
(5 - 9:08am, Sep 17)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(13941 - 8:53am, Sep 17)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogKC Royals ‘need to start thinking’ about a new stadium, possibly downtown, owner says
(54 - 8:44am, Sep 17)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-15-2021
(8 - 6:40am, Sep 17)
Last: Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

NewsblogIs it already time for another WEEKLY OMNICHATTER?, for September 13-16, 2021
(144 - 5:44am, Sep 17)
Last: TomH

NewsblogRyan Braun retires after 14 seasons
(28 - 2:17am, Sep 17)
Last: Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes

NewsblogDoes Javier Báez’s enigmatic nature make his impending free agency messier?
(16 - 10:56pm, Sep 16)
Last: Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer

NewsblogSeattle Mariners to host 2023 MLB All-Star Game, sources say
(1 - 8:01pm, Sep 16)
Last: Jeff Francoeur's OPS

Newsblog8th? BBTF Central Park Softball Game: SEPT 18, 2021
(211 - 7:08pm, Sep 16)
Last: sunday silence (again)

NewsblogThere are only about 3-to-5 candidates to run Mets -- here’s who we think they are
(11 - 6:33pm, Sep 16)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

Sox TherapyShrug
(153 - 5:23pm, Sep 16)
Last: Textbook Editor

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Transfer! Kits! Other Stuff!
(255 - 4:52pm, Sep 16)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-16-2021
(3 - 2:22pm, Sep 16)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogThe Storyteller of the White Sox
(15 - 1:40pm, Sep 16)
Last: Itchy Row

NewsblogThe Past, Present, and Future of International Scouting
(6 - 1:19pm, Sep 16)
Last: Jay Seaver

Page rendered in 0.2832 seconds
48 querie(s) executed