Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Twitter: Scott Lindholm: Big Contract Performance

 

Jim Furtado Posted: February 19, 2019 at 06:27 AM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:11 PM (#5816576)
That graph doesn't show what he thinks it does. The spread is pretty even above/below. There are 5 contracts that turned out really well -- Beltre, Bonds, Cano, Holliday and Bautista. There are two contracts that turned out badly in Hamilton and Howard and then the two massive outliers of Pujols and ARod II.

The Howard extension was signed two years early and derided on the day it was signed. The ARod and Pujols contracts ran into their early 40s.

I'd have to see the dataset to do my own analysis but this appears to have Jayson Werth and Alfonso Soriano just below the break-even line and those are exactly the sorts of contracts the current money mavens say are disastrous. OK, I'm not giving the current money mavens enough credit as today they've moved the againg curve forward to age 26.

Anyway, the only real lesson it seems to have (other than the obvious it's a big risk to sign a guy through age 40) is that the low money contracts haven't worked ... but nobody signs 5-year low-AAV contracts. So those are presumably "big money" mid-90s contracts.

Anyway, eyeballing it, if you drew a least-squares line (not necessarily the best-fitting function here) it looks to me like it would be a bit below the 1:1 reference line, passing right through Werth and who I think is Soriano. I'd guess that line is well within the margin of error for fangraphs WAR and $/WAR estimates. In short, teams pretty much get their money's worth out of these contracts. (Which might just be an artifact of how fangraphs calculates their $/WAR figure but I didn't choose this analysis and present a graph with no explantion.)

There are clearly some current contracts that will look worse -- I'm not sure why Ian Desmond is sitting at around $30 M but presumably he'll move along the x-axis while not making much movement on the y-axis as time goes on. Cano presumably moves closer to the line as time goes on.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5816590)
And he appears to have missed Votto ... or used some criterion that excludes Votto's age 30-39 extension. Votto has produced way more value than he's been paid for so far and is virtually guaranteed to do no worse than break ever over the life of the contract. Per fangraphs dollars (he used them, so I can too), Votto has so far been worth $186 M while being paid $93 M in the first half of the contract. Reds owe 5/$132 and while he's probably not going to be worth that, we could also think of them as owing him just 5/$39 seeing as how they're already $93 M ahead. So about 5 more WAR by their calculations (bWAR gives him 1 more to date).
   3. Walt Davis Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5816594)
And possible nitpick on ARod ... part of the detriment in that contract was the missed time for the roid suspension. He had been diminished before that season but then he came back after that season to put up 2.9 WAR at 39. More importantly, the Yanks didn't have to pay him. I think he's got just the contract total there which arguably should be adjusted down the X-axis given the Yanks didn't pay him or adjusted up the y-axis for an estimate of the WAR he would have put up. Unless he wants to seriously argue that "roid suspension risk" should go into projections and contract pricing. It won't make a big difference of course, he'll still be well below the 1:1 line.
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 19, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5816604)
The "value" on the Y-axis is just based on $/WAR generated by other FA contracts, right? If so, the conclusion is (again) nothing more than "Some FA contracts work out better than others."
   5. aberg Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5816618)
A more interesting study would be whether a team can get more long-term value by signing a series of high(ish) AAV deals for 1-2 years as opposed to commiting several years to a single player. I don't know if there are guys like Dozier/Cruz/Moustakas available every year, but it would be dependent on getting the right guys at the right positions and being able to convince each of them to sign instead of doing it once.
   6. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 19, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5816626)
The "value" on the Y-axis is just based on $/WAR generated by other FA contracts, right? If so, the conclusion is (again) nothing more than "Some FA contracts work out better than others."

The conclusion seems to be that there's been more downside than upside in 5+ year deals for 30+ year-old position players, relative to other free agent contracts. That isn't surprising.
   7. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 19, 2019 at 07:17 PM (#5816651)
The conclusion seems to be that there's been more downside than upside in 5+ year deals for 30+ year-old position players, relative to other free agent contracts. That isn't surprising.
It's not surprising, but as Walt points out, it doesn't appear to be as glaring as Lindholm seems to believe.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Jim Wisinski
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe 3,000 Hit Club Is Closed for Maintenance
(37 - 11:04pm, Sep 26)
Last: Cooper Nielson

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(14188 - 11:01pm, Sep 26)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

Sox TherapyIt's A Sprint, Not A Marathon
(69 - 10:59pm, Sep 26)
Last: Darren

NewsblogNBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread
(4616 - 10:55pm, Sep 26)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogMullins 1st Oriole in 30-30 club: 'It's surreal'
(20 - 10:41pm, Sep 26)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogVaxed, waxed, and ready for the WEEKEND OMNICHATTER!, for September 24-26, 2021
(137 - 10:14pm, Sep 26)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogChicago Cubs plan to be 'really active" in MLB free agency, says team president Jed Hoyer
(10 - 9:59pm, Sep 26)
Last: The Honorable Ardo

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Transfer! Kits! Other Stuff!
(288 - 4:59pm, Sep 26)
Last: manchestermets

NewsblogHyde to return as O's skipper in 2022
(2 - 3:35pm, Sep 26)
Last: Jack Keefe

NewsblogCarlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement
(8 - 3:29pm, Sep 26)
Last: Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams)

Newsblog14 wins in a row! Cards tie 1935 club record
(9 - 2:32pm, Sep 26)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogThey could be ROY vote-getters -- again
(13 - 2:46am, Sep 26)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogOT - August/September 2021 College Football thread
(251 - 10:43pm, Sep 25)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogAtlanta Braves' Adam Duvall has home run nixed after baserunning gaffe
(17 - 5:47pm, Sep 25)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogArizona Diamondbacks give manager Torey Lovullo one-year extension despite 104-loss season
(6 - 1:45pm, Sep 25)
Last: Jack Sommers

Page rendered in 0.2857 seconds
48 querie(s) executed