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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 4272 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   2701. Greg Pope Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5933559)
I dont know where you're getting this. The only significant side effect seems to be permanent retina damage from prolonged use, e.g. 5 years of use. This is what I was able to google. Do you have any thing to counter that?

I read something about it causing a heart arrhythmia.

Here it is, second Google result

Hydroxychloroquine could cause fatal heart arrhythmias, especially in people with underlying heart disease, doctors said. And its older, more toxic cousin chloroquine, can poison users who take too much.


I suppose "especially" can be doing a lot of lifting in that sentence, or almost none.

“The medication can slow the conduction of electrical messages in the heart and, if given along with azithromycin, that effect can be even worse,”


The drug, brand name Plaquenil, is generally well tolerated, especially for short term use, doctors said.

Patients with stable liver, kidney or other diseases should be able to tolerate it short term, said Hirsch.


So I saw the first part and may have exaggerated in my memory. But it's still a risk.
   2702. Howie Menckel Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:22 PM (#5933560)
bah, seconds late on the bump
   2703. Mefisto Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5933561)
Deleted.
   2704. Greg Pope Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5933562)
Also, this article contains this:

"If you just have millions of people taking a drug with known toxicities, haphazardly, we are going to see major safety problems.”


That quote seems a little exaggerated, since the article has this to say:

One reason that Trump noted for testing older drugs is that doctors are familiar with their use. “They are safe, from the standpoint,” Trump said.”They're not killing people. We're not going to have that.”

But they do have side effects like most drugs, some severe. The Mayo Clinic lists 14 drugs that shouldn’t be taken with chloroquine, whose side effects can include blurred vision, nausea, vomiting, cramps, headache, and diarrhea. Similar side effects are associated with hydroxychloroquine, another form of the drug, which is also linked to convulsions and “mental changes” by the US National Library of Medicine.

The scientific literature contains a number of case reports of overdoses, some fatal. Nigeria reported two fatal overdoses after Trump’s remarks, and asked people not to take the drug without a doctor’s orders.


Now, all of these are side effects, but not really safety problems, especially if people still need a prescription to get it. In theory they talk to their doctor about interactions and side effects. But when the president says "we know it's safe", there are plenty of people who don't think any further. I think that's dangerous and irresponsible.
   2705. Jay Z Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5933565)
As far as the number of flu deaths per year go...

Suppose there are 21,000 flu deaths in the USA in a year. Let's assume they are all confined to a six month period. That means you have a little over 100 flu deaths in the USA every day over that period. 2 or 3 for the average sized state per day. Now that's every day, and it does add up, but let's assume the flu is everywhere, and there is little to no clustering. Given the prevalence of the flu... it's still really just a person here and there.

With the clusters we have had with COVID-19, just letting COVID-19 go, doing no more than the flu, less even with no vaccine at all, COVID-19 is going to kill FAR more than an average flu season.
   2706. tshipman Posted: March 25, 2020 at 09:47 PM (#5933566)
I understand the point you are making, but bear in mind that NYC has ten times the population of San Francisco, and Manhattan has almost 4 times the population density; and then there is the subway . .


We have public transit here, you know.

But sure:
New York City has 8.6 million people per census.
San Francisco has 0.9 million.

On March 10th, San Francisco had 17 cases (0.02 per thousand)
On March 10th, New York City had 32 cases (0.003 per thousand)

As of March 24, SF had 152 cases (0.2 per thousand)--a roughly 10X increase!
As of March 24, New York City had 14,776 cases, (1.71 per thousand). That is a 461X increase.

Shelter at home works and it works better the sooner you do it.
   2707. Sunday silence Posted: March 25, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5933570)

So I saw the first part and may have exaggerated in my memory. But it's still a risk.


Fair enuf, Greg. But I wil pt. out that it has been used for a long time vs Malaria as well as for Lupus. It is no longer used for Malaria as Malaria has mutated but it has a lot of use among lupus sufferers. Most of the reviews seem pretty good and many lupus people have used it so...

The really interesting thing is that Hydroxychloroquine can PREVENT malaria. and if the mechanism works the same way vs Corona it might have the same effect. This is one reason its attracted alot of attention.

I ordered some from Indian but they have shut down all plane flights out of there. Supposed to check back on April 1. By taht time who knows what the situation will be like.k
   2708. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 25, 2020 at 10:44 PM (#5933583)
The guys at reason.com are at it again.

The current testing capacity in the U.S. is very limited, and COVID-19 symptoms are typically mild to nonexistent, meaning many people who are infected will not seek medical attention or testing. The actual number of infections therefore is probably several times as large as the official number. The size of that gap is crucial in estimating the true CFR.

If the number of U.S. infections is six times as large as the official tally—as it was in the early stages of China's epidemic, according to one estimate—the true CFR at this point would be about 0.2 percent, one-fifth the rate used in this study. Eichenbaum acknowledges that "the savings depend on the mortality rate," although he cautions that you can't simply multiply the cost per life saved, since people would behave differently in response to a substantially lower CFR


No acknowledgement of the other extremely critical factor, well-known now of course by looking at places like South Korea and the Diamond Princess--it takes time for people to die. There are very strong factors pulling the apparent CFR (currently 1.3% in the US) in two directions. First, the one mentioned above, that many infections aren't being found. This would reduce the 1.3% by a large amount, maybe even 10 times or more. The second, equally important if not more so, is the time delay between infection and death, completely unacknowledged by the linked article.

The weird thing is how do they explain a 0.2% mortality rate as applied to a place like Bergamo (1.1 million people, so not exactly podunk)? As of 2 days ago 1176 people had died there (and now at least 1267), a number that could easily double prior to the end of this first wave (and more, if we haven;t plateaued yet). Even if every single person there were already infected the mortality rate would be over 0.24%--and that is with the completely unreasonable assumptions that (A) no one else will die, and (B) 100% are infected (a completely unreasonable assumption, since even in the least optimistic scenarios for spread you'd get at most 80%). Bergamo is also in a lockdown so presumably they think some people there don't have it yet, and some there must be testing negative.

Of course the reason article goes to lengths to imply that the maximum % people that could get the disease is much less than 65%. Don't they see that something has to give here?

An absolute lower bound for Bergamo is 50% infected, and 1800 of these to be dead. That yields a 0.3% mortality rate under the most optimistic accounting. A more realistic range might be 10-40% infected and 2000-2400 dead (0.45% to 2.2%, by this wild-ass guess). Of course, this is in Bergamo, where people are older and the health system got overwhelmed.


   2709. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 25, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5933585)
Even if every single person there were already infected the mortality rate would be over 0.24%

Everything else you said here makes sense, and the reason.com people are not exactly credits to their race, but 1,276 / 1,100,000 = 0.116%.

   2710. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:11 PM (#5933587)
Everything else you said here makes sense, and the reason.com people are not exactly credits to their race, but 1,276 / 1,100,000 = 0.116%.
I was doubling it... and then assumed that away. You are right. I had to work off and on between writing it and forgot what was in the previous sentence. I think the rest is correct.
   2711. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:13 PM (#5933589)

I agree with general point about earlier lockdown being way better. The problem with the SF vs NY comparison is that by the time that the second guy in NY tested positive (the guy in New Rochelle), he had already infected many other people. I believe he’d gone to two large gatherings, had taken public transportation to work in the city, had probably been atttending synagogue regularly. NY probably already had dozens of cases by that point, not 2. SF likely did not just based on the subsequent trajectory.
   2712. Do Not Touch Fancy Pants Socially Distanced Handle Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5933593)
We have public transit here, you know.

But sure:
New York City has 8.6 million people per census.
San Francisco has 0.9 million.

On March 10th, San Francisco had 17 cases (0.02 per thousand)
On March 10th, New York City had 32 cases (0.003 per thousand)

As of March 24, SF had 152 cases (0.2 per thousand)--a roughly 10X increase!
As of March 24, New York City had 14,776 cases, (1.71 per thousand). That is a 461X increase.

Shelter at home works and it works better the sooner you do it.

Active cases are meaningless, because testing levels are far too inconsistent to draw any conclusions from it. If NY hadn't dramatically ramped up testing, they would have discovered far fewer active cases by now. And the increase would look a lot severe. Should that change our evaluation of what is working or not? If it does, it would basically tell us to do exactly what the places are doing, that aren't testing at all... you can see why that is nonsensical, right?

Especially early on, we know we were massively undertesting, and undercounting cases. On March 10th, there is no chance there were only 32 infections in NYC (even just mathematically speaking, with the most optimistic growth curve, you couldn't get to the number of cases they have now). And of course they are likely still undercounting the number of cases by a significant margin.

I say that all as somebody who is extremely pro-lockdown, and have said earlier, it is virtually impossible to lockdown too early. But trying to read anything into those numbers is a fools errand.
   2713. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:41 PM (#5933594)
The problem with the SF vs NY comparison is that by the time that the second guy in NY tested positive (the guy in New Rochelle), he had already infected many other people. I believe he’d gone to two large gatherings, had taken public transportation to work in the city, had probably been atttending synagogue regularly.

In November 2019, that's a decent argument. But post-Wuhan, realizing you have a Typhoid Mary should be where city government starts running around with their hair on fire. Like FPH said, waiting two weeks is a monstrous difference (and I think his 7x multiplier is too low).

This is from March 4th. Cuomo was talking about containment in New Rochelle, "the pandemic of fear", the comparison to flu, and the superiority of the New York health care system compared to Wuhan. "There is no reason for undue anxiety." New York ###### up. If Trump wasn't such an overwhelmingly obvious idiot, with a mass cult amplifying his idiocy, Cuomo would be facing demands for his resignation.
   2714. tshipman Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:52 PM (#5933596)
In November 2019, that's a decent argument. But post-Wuhan, realizing you have a Typhoid Mary should be where city government starts running around with their hair on fire. Like FPH said, waiting two weeks is a monstrous difference (and I think his 7x multiplier is too low).


Right, this is the point. SF shut down everything when they had 43 confirmed cases. NYC didn't take any measures until they had 137, and didn't go to Shelter in place until they had 8K. NYC acted 4-5 days slower than SF, and that time has made a huge difference.

The entire country should realize that if you wait to realize that you have a problem, it will be too late. The only thing that works is shutting down early, almost immediately.
   2715. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 25, 2020 at 11:54 PM (#5933597)
Yes, NY should have shut down earlier. That’s obvious now. But they were probably even slower than 4-5 days behind SF.
   2716. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:18 AM (#5933602)
Congress' "relief" package, long on corporate bailouts and short on actual help for actual people, isn't going to remedy much.
It just passed the Senate unanimously, 96-0, so there appears to be a bipartisan consensus to the contrary.
   2717. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5933606)
NYC reported 1800 new cases of flu between 3/8 and 3/14, and 3000 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday.
   2718. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:40 AM (#5933608)
First off:
2716. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:18 AM (#5933602)
[ Ignored Comment ]
(smugly cracks knuckles)
   2719. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5933609)
Shelter at home works and it works better the sooner you do it.
LA County, as of noon today, has only 13 deaths out of just 799 cases. That's quite the thing.
   2720. bobm Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:56 AM (#5933611)
[2707] Fair enuf, Greg. But I wil pt. out that it has been used for a long time vs Malaria as well as for Lupus. It is no longer used for Malaria as Malaria has mutated but it has a lot of use among lupus sufferers. Most of the reviews seem pretty good and many lupus people have used it so...

The really interesting thing is that Hydroxychloroquine can PREVENT malaria. and if the mechanism works the same way vs Corona it might have the same effect. This is one reason its attracted alot of attention.


WRT its mechanism of action, the efficacy against lupus could mean that against COVID-19, this drug may modulate the body's immune system and prevent an OVERreaction.
   2721. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:06 AM (#5933625)
Lombardy has about 1% of its population die each year (10 out of 10000), Supposedly Nembro, in Bergamo is no exception, with 120 dying out of 11,500 last year, and around 35 through march 24th in an average year.

This year officially 31 (0.3%) died from the virus in through march 24, but reportedly a staggering 158 have died through March 2020, supposedly 120 of those since the beginning of march.

Just some crackpot rumors? Perhaps, but this is coming from the mayor and a hospital CEO. They are saying that many older people were never taken to the hospital as there was no room, and died at home without ever being tested. (Italy has 3 hospital beds for 1000 people, so Nenbro is unlikely to have any more than 20 or so available at any time, and probably less since it is a small town.) No one is sure what they all died of, but the circumstances suggest many probably died from coronavirus. They say the same thing appears to be happening in other towns in the region, including Cernusco sul Naviglio, Pesaro and Bergamo, and found similar results.

I'm not sure where they are getting this year's numbers from, but their numbers from average years for Nembro are consistent with about 1/100 people dying per year in the region.

Also check out the graph showing the peak of deaths in the city for Nembro. It appears to be a rolling average graph, showing the rolling average of deaths for January and February to be about 0.5 per day, then a coroavirus number that quickly shoots up to about 2 per day (rolling average) for a week or two before dropping down to near 0.5 again. The total deaths jump up to about 8 per day (rolling average) before dropping down to a current level of 3. (Mu guess is the rolling average is a 10-day rolling average, because you can see the first date on the axis is January 10, and the y-axis increments appear to be about 0.1.)

The mayor himself tested positive by March 4, so likely got it a few days or more earlier, late February. If the first cases were early February and there was no mitigation, the first deaths would likely appear around March 1 (as is shown), half the town could have been infected by early March (with barely anyone dead), and the peak of deaths would happen 2 weeks later. This is all consistent with the chart.

The mayor thinks the entire town got infected, but even assuming the numbers presented are right, the entire town being infected is unlikely--the real number could be anywhere from 20% (if mitigation came in pretty early) to 80% (if it was way too late). Also, likely some of the deaths were from other treatable causes that went untreated (say 10-20%) leaving 100-110 coronavirus deaths for 2300 to 9200 infected, or a rate of 1.1% to near 5%. This is with an utter failure of health care and probably an older population of course.

Based on the curve we are shown, there shouldn't be that many more excess deaths or coronavirus deaths in Nembro going forward.

If they really are undercounting in places like Nembro, it might partially explain why the curve in Italy flattened out faster than expected.
   2722. BrianBrianson Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:26 AM (#5933626)
If CA starts its shutdown early, and the disease doesn't spread much, you have no damn idea if it's because the shutdown is working or if it's because the virus just isn't there.


If you clamped it down so fast it never got out of Wuhan, this can sort of be the case. But there're going to be places where nothing was done, or so little so late, that you'll be able to say "Look how it went down in Egypt vs South Korea" or the like and have a pretty strong conclusion.

Two countries is too small a sample, of course; but 200 is pretty useful.
   2723. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:43 AM (#5933635)
The current testing capacity in the U.S. is very limited, and COVID-19 symptoms are typically mild to nonexistent


To add onto what you said in 2708, the sheer dishonesty of the above is staggering. If we're NOT testing (leaving aside the reason why), how could anyone pretend to know that the symptoms are "typically mild to nonexistent"?

It is truly frightening that this group has ANY influence on public policy.
   2724. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:47 AM (#5933636)
I ordered some from Indian but they have shut down all plane flights out of there.


I read this as you getting your Indian takeout flown in straight from Chennai. :)
   2725. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:50 AM (#5933637)
It just passed the Senate unanimously, 96-0, so there appears to be a bipartisan consensus to the contrary.


I don't recall saying anything about any specific political parties. So both parties are corporatist suckups. Stop the presses.

Congress passes a lot of useless, ineffectual, make-it-look-like-we're-doing-something bills. This is another one.
   2726. BrianBrianson Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:36 AM (#5933641)
If we're NOT testing (leaving aside the reason why), how could anyone pretend to know that the symptoms are "typically mild to nonexistent"?


South Korea, Iceland, a handful of Italian villages have tested some huge fraction of the population. And while you can miss people with mild or non-existent symptoms, you're probably not missing people with severe symptoms.
   2727. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:45 AM (#5933642)
South Korea, Iceland, a handful of Italian villages have tested some huge fraction of the population. And while you can miss people with mild or non-existent symptoms, you're probably not missing people with severe symptoms.


What has been the percentage of people who (a) test positive, and (b) don't develop any symptoms? And has enough time been allowed to conclude that those who haven't shown symptoms yet never will? (Honest questions.)
   2728. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:46 AM (#5933643)
#2667 It's stayed a good thread for me once I put both SBB and YC on ignore. It'd be a better thread if people didn't quote them back to respond, but we're getting pledges on that score.
   2729. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:49 AM (#5933644)
#2680. Made me smile. Thank you.

Would like to be able to upvote or hand out stars. Not just for that post. There's lots of good stuff here.
   2730. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5933647)
Spain and Madrid potentially moving in the right direction for the first time.

Spain deaths

3/19 1326
3/20 1720 +30%
3/23 2182 +27%
3/24 2696 +24%
3/25 3434 +27%
3/26 4089 +19%


Madrid

Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
   2731. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:05 AM (#5933648)
#2714 Ottawa basically shut down on two. And was in partial shutdown mode (working from home strongly encouraged and easy stuff like that) before then. Given that government towns inevitably have a lot of foreign travellers I think they were slow, but a lockdown before any cases is a really tough sell politically.

It's not a full lockdown. Hell, you can still get carry out at Tim Horton's (unlike most other coffee chains) and there's still ongoing construction. Many of the stores that are open have taken to limiting the number of customers inside -- a reasonable compromise.

Extent of spread is tough to really know since testing is rationed. Pretty sure my nephew (in self-isolation after first symptoms) has it but he's not sick enough to get tested. Good news he's not that sick but sucks that he can't get tested.
   2732. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:05 AM (#5933649)
okay, a few things:


1: the infection rates are worthless right now. in countries that instituted widespread testing, such as iceland and south korea, about half of the people who tested positive were asymptomatic. this means the numbers everywhere else, everywhere that isn't testing the entire population, are so flawed that they are not even worth referencing.

2: so where do you find usable data, then?

3: mortality rates.

4: you can hide tests, but it's harder to hide bodies. especially as the number of them continues to accumulate.

5: italy passed 100 attributed covid deaths on march 4. on march 8, they reported 133 deaths for that single day. their reported deaths doubled again, to 250, 5 days later. 5 days after that, on march 18, they reported 475 deaths. in the week since then, they've reported between 600 and 800 deaths per day.

6: 600-800 deaths is not 1000.

7: what i am personally watching for, is whether that number holds, because

8: if the mortality rate in italy jumps again, that would indicate that "sheltering in place" cannot stem the tide once the infection has become widespread among the population.

9: if the mortality rate does not jump, that indicates that the worst of this will be in the next 6 weeks.

10: if it does, be prepared for this to wreak havoc for the next 6 months.

11:

the timeline for italy:
MAR 4: 100+ total dead
MAR 8: 100+ deaths
MAR 13: 200+ deaths
MAR 18: ~500 deaths
MAR 20-??: 600-800 deaths

for the US:
MAR 17: 100+ total dead
MAR 22: 100+ deaths reported
MAR 24-??: 200+ deaths reported

spain:
MAR 13: 100+ total dead
MAR 15: 98 deaths (close enough, for these purposes)
MAR 17: 191 deaths (again, close enough)
MAR 23-??: 500+ deaths

france:
MAR 15: 100+ total dead
MAR 19: 100+ deaths
MAR 24-??: 200+ deaths

south korea:
FEB 25: 10+ total dead
MAR 21: 100+ total dead
   2733. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:16 AM (#5933651)
4: you can hide tests, but it's harder to hide bodies. especially as the number of them continues to accumulate.


This is an important point - that 'cases' are a deeply imperfect measure - but it's also worth noting that the UK has managed to get a decrease in daily deaths by changing the criteria. It's certainly a defensible approach, as I think they're now waiting for consent of the family before including a person in the stats, but it does make tracking the UK's progress much, much harder from the outside.
   2734. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5933654)
Bergamo mayor confirms the same thing. Many more dead than officially counted. In the final accounting, we will likely have to revise these numbers from Lombardy up, maybe by a large fraction.

Bergamo, a town of 121,000, should have about 100 deaths a month (using Lombardy's overall mortality rate in recent years), maybe slightly more this time of year. 56 deaths in the first two weeks of March last year is quite consistent, but there were 164 this year, only 31 of which were attributed to the virus. That's probably undercounting by at least a factor of two, maybe three.

   2735. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:30 AM (#5933656)
So you can hide bodies, by never testing people who die. It seems probably Italy has been doing just that, even if it was partially or entirely inadvertent.

Also, we are fairly certain shelter in place works to massively slow down the spread in the short term. The question is more what do you do after that? If you slow down the spread when no one has gotten infected yet, you can't really go back to full steam or everyone just gets infected very quickly. Rather, it looks like you might have to slowly ease back into action over the next few months as hospital capacity/ability to deal with infections increases.
   2736. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5933658)
Rather, it looks like you might have to slowly ease back into action over the next few months as hospital capacity/ability to deal with infections increases.


This is the longer-term challenge - not just the planning, but the communication and enforcement. Do you do it by age cohort, regionally, personal circumstances? Regional rule changes doesn't do much to alleviate hospital capacity. Age cohort might make sense (people in their 20s and 30s go back to work before people in their 40s and 50s), but might lead to some weird societal effects. Some people in their 40s and 50s will not be key workers but will urgently need to work. And so on.

Might at least lead to a fun twist on getting carded. "You want to go to this restaurant? Prove you're young enough!"
   2737. Swedish Chef Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5933659)
What has been the percentage of people who (a) test positive, and (b) don't develop any symptoms? And has enough time been allowed to conclude that those who haven't shown symptoms yet never will? (Honest questions.)

China never counted the ones who tested positive but never got ill as cases (they differ from the WHO there), there were 43,000 of those (in addition to the 81k official cases). But it seems like they would be less likely to be counted than people who get ill. Iceland says 50%, but that must be too recent to be a safe assumption.
   2738. . . . . . . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5933660)
So you can hide bodies, by never testing people who die. It seems probably Italy has been doing just that, even if it was partially or entirely inadvertent.


The epidemiologists deal with this by measuring excess mortality. That can't be hid without mass graves.
   2739. Swedish Chef Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5933661)
Bergamo, a town of 121,000, should have about 100 deaths a month (using Lombardy's overall mortality rate in recent years), maybe slightly more this time of year. 56 deaths in the first two weeks of March last year is quite consistent, but there were 164 this year, only 31 of which were attributed to the virus. That's probably undercounting by at least a factor of two, maybe three.

It could be that people with other problems got worse treatment because of the crisis. Maybe they should be counted as casualties anyway.
   2740. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:40 AM (#5933662)
I don't think the CA to NY comparisons are of much use yet....

Reposting the KFF Link - updated daily with individual state tables and maps on cases, tests conducted, and responses -

New York has conducted a staggeringly high amount of tests compared to everyone else - more than a 1/4 of total US tests... Total US tests as of last night's update: 400,474. Total test conducted in NY: 103,479.

Washington is next at 34,181, followed by California at 27,654.
   2741. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:40 AM (#5933663)
It could be that people with other problems got worse treatment because of the crisis. Maybe they should be counted as casualties anyway.


They should be. The whole point of the "flatten the curve" process is to reduce the load on healthcare services, after all, and not just for Covid-19 sufferers. Where that strategy fails, the knock-on impact is that people with other conditions who would otherwise have survived, do not.
   2742. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5933665)
Right, well according to the mayors of some of the small towns in Italy, the excess mortality is far higher in their localities than the known/counted virus deaths alone imply. I'm hoping we can eventually get numbers for all of Lombardy or Madrid.
   2743. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5933666)
Also, we are fairly certain shelter in place works to massively slow down the spread in the short term. The question is more what do you do after that? If you slow down the spread when no one has gotten infected yet, you can't really go back to full steam or everyone just gets infected very quickly. Rather, it looks like you might have to slowly ease back into action over the next few months as hospital capacity/ability to deal with infections increases.

Agreed to a certain extent. Maybe you can bring certain industries on-line first, then others. Office workers who can work from home last.

Maybe you stagger when you bring certain cities/regions back on-line, and you move PPE stockpiles / ventillators (and maybe even medical professionals) there to deal with the potential rise in cases. This requires that you are able to stockpile such items in the first place, which we aren't yet.
   2744. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5933667)
It's never easy to put the Genie back in the bottle, but if 6-8 weeks of shelter in place got the numbersrs low enough, you could think about reverting to aggressive testing, isolation and contact tracing to try to lessen the size of a second wave.
   2745. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:14 AM (#5933671)
It's never easy to put the Genie back in the bottle, but if 6-8 weeks of shelter in place got the numbersrs low enough, you could think about reverting to aggressive testing, isolation and contact tracing to try to lessen the size of a second wave.

That's what I think has to be the path forward, if we can get, you know, 500 million tests manufactured. And I think that's a bargain that people will take - you get to return to your job and semi-normal daily life, but you may be subject to 14-day voluntary quarantine at any time just because you work next to someone that tests positive.

But I have no idea if the US is capable of doing this. Who is doing the contact tracing? Is it voluntary? Doing it properly would require an absolutely massive government effort, with dedicated officials and employees in every corner of the country.
   2746. BrianBrianson Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:21 AM (#5933672)
I do wonder, a bit, how much of the response is driven by not planning for a disease that's bad for the elderly, but apparently not a concern for young people. Like, would "quarantine those over 50 for 6 weeks, let the rest of us get wild vaccinqted" have actually been the wise response, but just one we weren't considering? You always prepare to fight the last war and all that?
   2747. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5933674)
Like, would "quarantine those over 50 for 6 weeks, let the rest of us get wild vaccinqted" have actually been the wise response

The Netherlands is experimenting with that, right?
   2748. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:27 AM (#5933675)
I do wonder, a bit, how much of the response is driven by not planning for a disease that's bad for the elderly, but apparently not a concern for young people. Like, would "quarantine those over 50 for 6 weeks, let the rest of us get wild vaccinqted" have actually been the wise response, but just one we weren't considering? You always prepare to fight the last war and all that?


Maybe, but younger people can and do develop serious complications as well.
   2749. Swedish Chef Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:31 AM (#5933676)
The Netherlands is experimenting with that, right?

They chickened out, but Sweden is still at it.

I went to the mall today! (I actually just got a package at the post desk in the supermarket)
   2750. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5933677)

I do wonder, a bit, how much of the response is driven by not planning for a disease that's bad for the elderly, but apparently not a concern for young people.

I think "not a concern for young people" may be an overstatement. Like maybe it's not enough of a concern that they shouldn't be going to work, but it seems like a decent number of people under 50 still require hospitalization for it.
   2751. Swedish Chef Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5933679)
I somehow doubt all these rules makes that much difference from Sweden that has just banned big events (not that anybody is arranging smaller events now), because people still have to work together to keep society running. So those workplaces will just serve as the reservoir for the virus instead.

Also, we're quite good at doing what we're told, we don't really need laws and gestapo prowling the streets to do social isolation.
   2752. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5933680)
Sweden is still at it.

That article doesn't mention that Sweden is employing the important second half of the theorized alternative strategy, which is putting old folks on a ####### legit lockdown. And it has a photo of old fat men (the highest risk group) at a bar.

As described in the article, Sweden is just doing a watered-down version of what everyone else is doing.

Asking old people to contribute to herd immunity is condemning them to death.
   2753. BrianBrianson Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5933682)
Okay, yes, I slightly simplified the case. But I would guess I'm correct in thinking the default case planned for is "children and the elderly are particularly vulnerable", or "everyone is equally vulnerable", and the other is the second case considered.
   2754. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5933683)
People should realize, if they don't yet, that US health privacy laws prohibit the identification of people who test positive, even to potentially impacted co-workers.
   2755. Swedish Chef Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5933685)
That article doesn't mention that Sweden is employing the important second half of the theorized alternative strategy, which is putting old folks on a ####### legit lockdown. And it has a photo of old fat men (the highest risk group) at a bar.

Yes, they are doing it, old folks are told to stay at home. There is no access to nursing homes any more, that kind of thing.
   2756. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5933688)
But if the old fat men can still go to the bar, I'm not optimistic about this strategy.

Yes, I realize that the Swedes may be more naturally rule-following than the Italians (and certainly the Americans), but it seems to me that the 'herd immunity' strategy only works if you can truly isolate the higher risk groups, and for a really long time.

   2757. Do Not Touch Fancy Pants Socially Distanced Handle Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5933689)
#2730 Isn't it far too early to have final totals for Spain/Madrid for today?
   2758. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5933691)
A thorough and well-sourced explanation of what we're up against in The Atlantic. I would say it's sobering, but it actually makes me want to get very drunk.
   2759. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5933693)
#2730 Isn't it far too early to have final totals for Spain/Madrid for today?


The numbers aren't final, but El Pais publishes the number of daily dead by the time I get up in the morning, which is about 3 pm there. The number then gets revised over time. I am not sure if the published number is the number since 9 pm the previous day, over the past 24 hours, or what.
   2760. Do Not Touch Fancy Pants Socially Distanced Handle Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5933697)
So you can hide bodies, by never testing people who die. It seems probably Italy has been doing just that, even if it was partially or entirely inadvertent.

I have seen a lot of speculation that Germany is doing this fairly aggressively. I.e. not testing anyone post mortem, and if there is any comorbidity, attribute deaths to that rather than corona. I have no way of verifying that obviously.
   2761. Do Not Touch Fancy Pants Socially Distanced Handle Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5933700)
The numbers aren't final, but El Pais publishes the number of daily dead by the time I get up in the morning, which is about 3 pm there.

Was 2pm CET when you posted the update fwiw. Europe does not move their clocks forward until this Sunday.
   2762. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5933701)
I have seen a lot of speculation that Germany is doing this fairly aggressively. I.e. not testing anyone post mortem, and if there is any comorbidity, attribute deaths to that rather than corona. I have no way of verifying that obviously.

"Ach du lieber! Zat's the eighth patient to die of der highbloodpressure just zis morning."
   2763. Do Not Touch Fancy Pants Socially Distanced Handle Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:17 AM (#5933704)
Bluthochdruck, if you want to learn another cool German compound word. Although I imagine no non-German speaker will have a prayer of pronouncing it.
   2764. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5933705)
#2758 Great article. Loaded with points to ponder (especially how the virus itself has impacted testing -- few sources for key items. And those sources happen to be in hotspots)
   2765. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5933710)
I went to the mall today!
Please keep your posts six feet away from the rest of us.
   2766. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5933711)
Bluthochdruck. Love it.
   2767. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5933713)
#2758 -- thanks for the link. Depressing as hell but hard to argue with.
   2768. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5933717)

People should realize, if they don't yet, that US health privacy laws prohibit the identification of people who test positive, even to potentially impacted co-workers.

I assume it prohibits employers from telling you *who* tested positive. It doesn't prohibit from telling you that someone you work with tested positive and you should self-quarantine or take appropriate precautions. That's what happened at my office when someone on my floor tested positive - they didn't tell us the name of the individual, but did tell us which group they were in.
   2769. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5933719)
More people have now died of COVID (worldwide) than of H1N1 in 2009.

So either (a) COVID-19 is vastly more lethal than H1N1, or (b) governments' responsiveness to H1N1 was vastly more effective. If not both.

Either way, hopefully this will finally lay to rest the "it's just the flu" argument still being made in some circles.
   2770. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5933720)
It is obviously vastly more lethal than H1N1.
   2771. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5933721)
Either way, hopefully this will finally lay to rest the "it's just the flu" argument still being made in some circles.
It's just one circle...a very small one. A dot, in fact.
   2772. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5933724)
#2730 Isn't it far too early to have final totals for Spain/Madrid for today?
Early each day the government publishes official numbers consolidated as of 9pm the day before. Various other updates are then made later throughout the day, but seem unofficial.
   2773. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5933725)
It's just one circle...a very small one. A dot, in fact.


I never made this argument or anything close. I get that it's the internet and all that, but still. I've never said anything like "COVID is just the flu," in fact, I've said explicitly that it's not the flu. Most people (not all, to be sure) on the board are smart enough to distinguish "How we act w/r/t the flu is useful precedent in how we figure out how to deal with COVID" -- my actual argument -- and "COVID is just the flu" -- not my argument. At this point, the only reasonable conclusion is that the people who are smart enough and yet continue to misstate what I've said, are doing so intentionally.

I assume it prohibits employers from telling you *who* tested positive. It doesn't prohibit from telling you that someone you work with tested positive and you should self-quarantine or take appropriate precautions.


Correct.

It is obviously vastly more lethal than H1N1.


It's no such thing. High end global estimates for H1N1 deaths were about 575,000; we're barely over 22K COVID deaths. No idea where the idea comes from that COVID deaths have already surpassed H1N1 deaths. It's not even close yet. They may eventually, they may not. COVID could wind up being more lethal, at this point, there's no sense in which it can be definitively determined to be more lethal, much less "obviously vastly more lethal."

All the extrapolations people appear to be making aren't science, or empiricism. They're nothing more than guesswork and moreover guesswork biased by the vastly different societal reactions to the two pandemics.

   2774. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5933728)
Early each day the government publishes official numbers consolidated as of 9pm the day before. Various other updates are then made later throughout the day, but seem unofficial.



The El Pais numbers are explicitly stated as being of the day of publication, not a reprise of the previous day. So, for example, it's published 655 deaths for today.
   2775. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5933729)
I won't quote from post 2773 out of respect for the people who have the poster on ignore...I will just direct the viewer's attention to the, er, contrast between the first statement of the post and the first sentence in response to the quote re: corona being more lethal than H1N1.

Edited to add: You can protest all you want that you're really saying "we don't know," but the fact of the matter is that every time someone presents data or argument that it's not just the flu, you come right back with a comparison to the flu. Over and over again.
   2776. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5933730)
I won't quote from post 2773 out of respect for the people who have the poster on ignore...I will just direct the viewer's attention to the, er, contrast between the first statement of the post and the first sentence in response to the quote re: corona being more lethal than H1N1.


There's no sense in which COVID is "obviously vastly more lethal" than H1N1, and the statement that it's already caused more global deaths is comically inaccurate.(*) Ignore and misstate away if it makes you feel better; I can't really control that.

(*) I actually read what people write and I did note the "in 2009" to the H1N1 death toll statement, but I'm not seeing what that's bringing to the party other than making sure we all remember the general date. More people died of H1N1 in 2009 than have already died from COVID.
   2777. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5933731)

It seems that either COVID-19 is much more severe or much more easily transmitted than H1N1, given how quickly hospitals are being overwhelmed with severe cases now. Or some other factor that limited its spread. I don't think it's because the media was systematically blocking / ignoring what was happening with H1N1 in 2009.
   2778. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5933732)
Edited to add: You can protest all you want that you're really saying "we don't know," but the fact of the matter is that every time someone presents data or argument that it's not just the flu, you come right back with a comparison to the flu. Over and over again.


That's not my "protest" in the least. I've never even engaged in any type of argument that "it's just the flu," and I've never really even engaged in any kind of effort to compare the two epidemiologically.

And it's not that I'm "really saying" we don't know. We don't in fact know.

   2779. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:17 PM (#5933733)
i get why the current govt wants to keep the numbers of tested covid patients down, but why do you think that the eurpoean countries are trying to cover up the numbers of dying/dead?

people die of the flu every year because over half our population refuses to have a flu shot. this includes at risk seniors too. and i bet numbers are not counted right neither
   2780. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5933734)
It seems that either COVID-19 is much more severe or much more easily transmitted than H1N1, given how quickly hospitals are being overwhelmed with severe cases now.


Assuming that's even true -- we do have hospitalization numbers and rates for H1N1, and they're easily found on google and the like -- all that would mean is that COVID has a higher propensity to hospitalize. That might not even be anything specific to the virus.
   2781. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5933735)
It seems that either COVID-19 is much more severe or much more easily transmitted than H1N1, given how quickly hospitals are being overwhelmed with severe cases now. Or some other factor that limited its spread. I don't think it's because the media was systematically blocking / ignoring what was happening with H1N1 in 2009.


The other factor is pretty straight-forward thing: H1N1 is a variant of a well-understood virus that we have/had at least nominally effective antivirals for, as well as a far better medical understanding of impacts, treatments, and tactics for. It's still an Influenza variant, even if it is a variant.

This specific strain, never mind the broader coronavirus itself, just has none of that.
   2782. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5933737)
--
   2783. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5933738)
i get why the current govt wants to keep the numbers of tested covid patients down, but why do you think that the eurpoean countries are trying to cover up the numbers of dying/dead?



Controlling the narrative over controlling the outbreak isn't a behavior confined to the US government.
   2784. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5933739)
The El Pais numbers are explicitly stated as being of the day of publication, not a reprise of the previous day. So, for example, it's published 655 deaths for today.
Well, if so, then they are wrong.

edit: 3434 deaths as of March 24 at 9pm, and 4089 as of March 25 at 9pm.

To be clear, Spain announced the 4089 today, but consolidated it as of yesterday 9pm, as clearly shown in their report.
   2785. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5933740)
More people died of H1N1 in 2009 than have already died from COVID.


sigh
   2786. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5933741)
sigh


Yeah, I know -- facts can be stubborn. And of course, all I was doing there was correcting the abject falsehood that had been posted to the boards. Not sure why such things are even posted, given how easily fact-checked they are. Might be a better project to worry about the false things that are posted, instead of obsessing and the like over the true things I post. But it's at least somewhat a free country.
   2787. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5933742)

Assuming that's even true -- we do have hospitalization numbers and rates for H1N1, and they're easily found on google and the like -- all that would mean is that COVID has a higher propensity to hospitalize.

Yes, that's why I said "severe" rather than "lethal." And to state the obvious, hospitalization is bad and is a leading indicator of deaths plus it diverts resources from people who need treatment for other things.

That might not even be anything specific to the virus.

Yes, like I said it might be some other factor, like the fact that the world is more connected now, more flights between countries. H1N1 happened during a recession when economic activity was down. Could have been a variety of factors. But the actual outcome seems fairly evident anecdotally. Someone who has more time than me can try to back it up with data. But I don't remember hospital systems in multiple cities and countries around the world being overwhelmed by severe H1N1 cases in 2009. Maybe in Mexico it happened.
   2788. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5933744)
The median estimate for hospitalizations for H1N1 in the US in the year between April 2009 and April 2010 is 275,000. High end is 400,000.

Yes, that's why I said "severe" rather than "lethal."


Fair enough, but the claim at issue was "obviously more lethal."

The internet and social media/message boards are basically an exercise in rooting out heresies, real or imagined, and that's mostly what's going on here. It gets annoying, but once you understand that, it's less so. "It's just the flu" is obviously one of those current heresies, which is why people are going through the exercise of imagining I've said that and trying to "expose" the "heretic." Such is life.

   2789. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5933746)
i would remember if the houston hospitals had all its rooms with ventilators occupied by H1N1 patients and routine elective surgeries cancelled and people dying in the corridors bcause they got nowheres to go. what i DO remember is me taking our family to get H1N1 flu shots the second they were available and most other moms i know did the same thing (yes, most of their men refused to get a shot because grownass men are terrified of a needle - or getting vaccines is only for sissies/females - something like that). i remember they didn't have enough vaccine made up for everyone who wanted it. HISD was not shut down.

in texas, people who die within 24 hrs of going to the hospital or die at home HAVE to have an autopsy - it's the law. unless they are like a hospice patient or have end stage disease already. unless doctors are deliberately making sure autopsys don't happen by writing heart disease when the patient didn't even have it (or something)

looks to me like this particualr disease is not gonna be stamped out. i doubt ever, so we'll just have to get revaccinated every few years - well, except for the anti-vaxxers. no talking to Them
   2790. PepTech Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5933747)
Washington State:

March 12: 4807 tested, 457 positive, 4350 negative
March 13: 6569 tested, 568 positive, 6001 negative
March 14: 7766 tested, 642 positive, 7122 negative, 40 dead.
March 15: 10220 tested, 769 positive, 9451 negative, 42 dead.
March 16: 12486 tested, 904 positive, 11582 negative, 48 dead.
March 17: 14129 tested, 1012 positive, 13117 negative, 52 dead.
March 18: 17195 tested, 1187 positive, 15918 negative. 66 dead.
March 19: 20712 tested, 1376 positive, 19336 negative, 74 dead.
March 20: 23243 tested, 1524 positive, 21719 negative, 83 dead.
March 21: 27121 tested, 1793 positive, 25328 negative, 94 dead.
March 22: 30875 tested, 1996 positive, 28879 negative, 95 dead.
March 23: 33933 tested, 2221 positive, 31712 negative, 110 dead.
March 24: 34181 tested, 2469 positive, 31712 negative, 123 dead.


March 25: 34292 tested, 2580 positive, 31712 negative, 132 dead.

** Note: Since 3/24 the state DOH site has not updated the number of overall tests, only new confirmed positive cases.
   2791. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5933748)
#2777 One key issue is that a fairly simple to implement measure -- body temperature scans at airports -- was very effective at containing H1N1. Not so much with Covid-19.

It says something about fighting the last war that body temperature scans are being deployed in lots of places.
   2792. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5933750)
Same problem of undercounting deaths is apparently prevalent in at least some of the worst-hit parts of France as well. It's likely to be the same all over the world, at least in hard-hit places.
   2793. PepTech Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5933751)
####. Just got laid off.
   2794. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5933752)
"I've never said it's just the flu - I've only said it's not not just the flu about eight thousand times" isn't particularly clever.
   2795. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5933754)
i would remember if the houston hospitals had all its rooms with ventilators occupied by H1N1 patients and routine elective surgeries cancelled and people dying in the corridors bcause they got nowheres to go. what i DO remember is me taking our family to get H1N1 flu shots the second they were available and most other moms i know did the same thing (yes, most of their men refused to get a shot because grownass men are terrified of a needle - or getting vaccines is only for sissies/females - something like that). i remember they didn't have enough vaccine made up for everyone who wanted it. HISD was not shut down.


One thing that hurt with H1N1 vaccinations was that the 2009 fall flue season also hit in force about 6 weeks earlier than expected; thus leading the shortages... The mistake was using the normal flu season timeline as the production marker - when it landed in early September rather than mid-October..

BTW, just to be clear -- while doctors say that the antivirals used in both vaccinations and treatment of influenza (baloxavir marboxil (Xofluza), oseltamivir (Tamiflu), and zanamivir (Relenza)) are far more effective and better used for vaccinations... the and treatment matters, too.

I.e., they're used to treat people who are infected with influenza viruses, too because they also have effectiveness in actual treatment.
   2796. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5933755)
so sorry Pep Tch

hope it isn't permanent
   2797. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5933756)
the flu meds only work if you start them right away

and you ALREADY got the flu and spread it around to who knows how many other people

better to get the flu shot in the first place. i've never missed a flu shot - and i've never gotten the flu. same with my kidz - and mah Husband, after we got married (he got asthma and i am not never going through no ICU experience again with him because he scared of an itty bitty shot)
   2798. Greg Pope Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5933757)
Sorry to hear, PepTech. I hope things pick up.
   2799. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5933758)
Sorry to hear that PepTech. Hopefully a quick recall.
   2800. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5933759)
Oh, I agree.... The H1N1 fall 2009 was the only time I waited to get a flu shot... I'm fortunate that my company does a couple days of free flu shots every year for anyone in the building (though I WFH, I always make it a point to do a day in the office when they do so) - but they cancelled 2009 and health officials asked middle-aged/healthy/kid-less folks to wait, so I technically didn't get the 2009 shot until the following January...
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