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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 4060 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   2801. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5933760)
I'm sorry, PepTech. Welcome to the club.

I think "not a concern for young people" may be an overstatement. Like maybe it's not enough of a concern that they shouldn't be going to work, but it seems like a decent number of people under 50 still require hospitalization for it.


Speaking of which, my hospitalized 4-year-old niece's covid-19 test won't come back for at least two days, but she's tested negative for everything else they can easily test for, so they're (wisely) treating her as a presumptive covid-19 case.

Her sisters (6 and 2) and mother (39) presumably are already infected (though not yet symptomatic) so I'll have to report back over the next week or so as to how their symptomology develops. The scarier part is that my in-laws (late 60s, MIL is a heavy smoker, FIL has high blood pressure) have been exposed as well.
   2802. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5933765)
662 new deaths (at least, officially) in Italy. The leveling off continues. Lombardy has 387 new deaths, which is higher than the last couple days but consistent with a leveling off overall.

6047 new tests done in Lombardy, with 2543 new cases (42%).
   2803. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5933767)
Sorry to hear about your job, PepTech, and your relatives, PASTE. I hope both of you get some better news soon.
   2804. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 26, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5933770)
Meanwhile, the UK has been receiving some flak for not joining in an EU-wide procurement effort for medical equipment. The UK is no longer in the EU, but under the transition period, it is treated mostly as if it still is, and the EU confirmed that it invited the UK to participate. The initial UK response was "we're not in the EU any more," which: true, but irrelevant. The new explanation is a doozy:

According to one government source, the UK did not participate in the first procurement schemes launched by the EU because the emails sent to the UK inviting it to take part were somehow missed.


Perhaps the EU shouldn't have been added to the UK's spam filter quite so rapidly.
   2805. bunyon Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5933778)
PepTech and PASTE, very sorry. I hope the job comes back and the niece recovers.

   2806. Sunday silence Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5933779)
One of the ongoing issues has been how do you value life and/or we cannot give a value on it. I think it was PF or someone how says they would abstain from the argument of putting a value to it. However, dont we do this every day? We cross the street to go to work, we'er not going to avoid that risk if it means we cant afford to have a house or cant afford new clothes. We make choices/valuations like this every day. Perhaps not consciously, perhaps not by using specific numbers. Instead we say "the risk is very slight" and I need to eat. But we still do it.
   2807. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5933780)
Dr. Fauci is on a podcast with Steph Curry today (had 50K+ live listeners). maybe he reads BBTF

Michele Steele
@ESPNMichele
·
1m
At least 10x more fatal than the typical flu, per Dr. Fauci - @StephenCurry30 using his platform to help get medical info out
   2808. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5933785)
Good on Steph. (And good on Fauci, for that matter.)
   2809. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5933787)
Turns out it's actually 712 in Italy for today. Piedmont had 449 as of yesterday and still was listed as having 449 as of today. Regional totals show 499 for today instead, so there are 50 more than shown in the country totals.
   2810. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5933788)
Everyone remembers Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, whose initial study was so influential -- essentially the driving force behind the shutdowns. Well, he's back in the news today, providing evidence to a parliamentary inquiry in the UK.

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.(*)

The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units.

The Imperial model has played a key role in informing the UK’s coronavirus strategy, but this approach has been criticised by some. “To be fair, the Imperial people are the some of the best infectious disease modellers on the planet,” Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, told New Scientist last week. “But it is risky to put all your eggs in a single basket.”

Ferguson said the current strategy was intended to keep transmission of the virus at low levels until a vaccine was available. Experts say that could take 12 to 18 months and Ferguson acknowledged it was impractical to keep the UK in lockdown for so long, especially because of the impact on the economy. “We’ll be paying for this year for decades to come,” he said.

The UK government is aiming to relax restrictions on people’s movements only when the country has the ability to test more people for the virus, said Ferguson. Some have criticised the UK for not following the advice of the World Health Organization to “test, test, test”. But Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available.

He said the UK should have the testing capacity “within a few weeks” to copy what South Korea has done and aggressively test and trace the general population.

New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected. The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government.

Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee.



Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6Hp1ZH8AP


(*) Down from 510,000 described in the main report a few weeks ago.
   2811. . Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5933789)
Italy new death rate down to 8.6%.
   2812. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:55 PM (#5933791)
A couple of highlights from Ferguson's comments in [2810]:

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks
...
“That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.
   2813. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5933792)
9.5%, per the Piedmont correction, a tad lower than yesterday's 10%. Should keep dropping because of their lockdown though.
   2814. tshipman Posted: March 26, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5933793)
The UK really does have death panels, and cost/benefit analysis is part of their medical culture.

It has not been part of ours.
   2815. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5933794)
Yeah, it's pretty clear that guy Ferguson is saying the revised projections are because of the restrictions (in addition to the expectation of increased hospital capacity), not despite them.

also of note, it looks like Ferguson's current projection of 20,000 dead assumes the restrictions last until the vaccine is available, something that most people think is impossible:
Ferguson said the current strategy was intended to keep transmission of the virus at low levels until a vaccine was available.
   2816. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5933795)
I just came back from running a quick errand. I live on a busy road, busy enough that making a left turn out of my driveway is all but impossible from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM. (I usually have to turn right, then left into a parking lot 200 yards later, spin around and another right to get going the other way.) For most of the past week, though (since Pennsylvania went into full shutdown), it's been eerily quiet--I'd say 25% of normal traffic at most.

Today, though, the traffic came roaring back. It must be 80-90% of normal. Part of that is doubtless because today is the first nice weather day we've had since last Friday, and it's projected to rain for the next three days too. But I fear that part of it is a week is about as long as people are willing to live with being stuck at home all day.
   2817. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5933796)
thank you steph. appreciate the effort.

just got texted an emergency alert from harris county telling us that covid 19 is RAPIDLY spreading throughout harris county

it is now at juvenile detention center and 2 harris county guards have been positive and i think 1 inmate. theres gonna be a LOT more deaths

sigh
   2818. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5933799)
Pep, sorry to hear about your job loss. Hope you get some relief from this.

Took a walk around town. Beautiful day, a lot of people out at the park. Not that much vehicle traffic, though, as MD remains in lockdown. I thought people were a little more lax about social distancing today than recently, but it might just be random.

Glad to hear Steph Curry is giving the Dr a forum for those he might not otherwise reach.
   2819. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5933802)
#2814 Policy choices can give you an implied value rather than an explicitly stated one. See for instance the paper "An Empiric Estimate of the Value of Life: Updating the Renal Dialysis Cost-Effectiveness Standard" (which gets each year of quality life as $129K)

What's more, there's a Department of Transportation document called, "Guidance on Treatment of the Economic Value of a Statistical Life" which got the value at $9.2M in 2014 and a revised calculation had it at $9.6M two years later.

And in 2010 the FDA got it at $7.9M and the EPA got it at $9.1M

All in all US policy choices seem to give a reasonably consistent result.

All numbers nabbed from wiki. Value of life
   2820. Ron J Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5933806)
#2817 Yeah I fear for the prisons. Staff and inmates. I know in Ontario who was a presumed positive was sent to prison (he made sure to inform everybody. Seems to have been dismissed as an attempt to avoid jail).

A staffer has already tested positive. Of course that doesn't mean he got it from the new guy, but unless that new inmate is kept in complete isolation it's almost certain others will. And once it's in you can pretty much guarantee 100% exposure.
   2821. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5933807)
So you can hide bodies, by never testing people who die. It seems probably Italy has been doing just that, even if it was partially or entirely inadvertent.
possibly. but then, you just need to dig into the raw totals rather than data that's been pre-filtered. that's probably the way it should be done, anyway, even if the data isn't being juked.

compare this year's total deaths to an estimate based on previous years for the country/region, and that will get you to a number that's real and reliable.
The epidemiologists deal with this by measuring excess mortality. That can't be hid without mass graves.

#puertorico.
   2822. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5933811)
Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the town most hard hit in per capita terms by COVID-19. Currently the town has 31 deaths attributed to COVID-19. But when the two authors looked at the total number of deaths registered in the town in January, February and March and compared it to the average for that period in previous years they found the number was dramatically larger. 158 deaths have been registered in the town during that period this year compared to an average of 35 in previous years.

The math is simple: the average of 35 plus the 31 COVID-19 deaths gets you to 66. But the town has recorded almost 100 more deaths on top of that. As the authors say, “The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation.”

The authors applied the same analysis to two other towns and in both came up with anomalous deaths 6.1 times the number officially attributed to COVID-19. The ratio was even higher for Bergamo as a whole


Link...
   2823. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5933812)
I am not asking this to be flip, but isn't that $9.1M figure close to the consensus value of 1 WAR?
   2824. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5933813)
I know in Ontario who was a presumed positive was sent to prison (he made sure to inform everybody. Seems to have been dismissed as an attempt to avoid jail).


Couldn't they have just tested him?
   2825. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5933814)
   2826. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5933815)
possibly. but then, you just need to dig into the raw totals rather than data that's been pre-filtered. that's probably the way it should be done, anyway, even if the data isn't being juked.
Right, based on early returns, if you do that in northern Italy you get far higher death totals at least in some localities. So if anything, this thing could be deadlier than the 1% that people have so far been estimating.

Worth a reminder here that about 1.7% of South Koreans who tested positive have died, if you put in the approximate two-week time delay that we are seeing in other parts of the world (even longer in Wuhan, actually). And that's known deaths, which have been undercounted elsewhere. Yeah they didn't find everyone who was infected, but they must have found a decent fraction to reduce the spread by so much.
   2827. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5933816)
2822, meet 2721 and 2734.
   2828. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5933818)
ventured into a market for the first time in two full weeks - the local Target in northern New Jersey.

is soup the new bottled water?

because there was NO soup, and warnings about limiting the amount one can buy (all the macaroni and cheese boxes you could hoard, though, which strikes me as weird).

yet aside from no 24-packs of water, there was enough of, say, a pack of the small bottles or a tall bottle.

toilet paper - no dice. but I guess I knew that. down to 3 rolls, but "I have a guy" who has a 4-pack set aside for me if it comes to that(or so he says!).
   2829. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5933819)
because there was NO soup
For you?
   2830. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5933820)
is soup the new bottled water?

because there was NO soup,


Can you buy a whole chicken and fresh vegetables? if so, you can make your own soup
   2831. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5933821)
The bottled water hoarding made no sense to me. If you're going to be stuck at home all day, it's actually the easiest time to make the environmentally conscious decision and drink tap water. Obviously if you live somewhere with bad tap water it's different. But in NYC there's no good reason.
   2832. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5933822)
The bottled water hoarding made no sense to me. If you're going to be stuck at home all day, it's actually the easiest time to make the environmentally conscious decision and drink tap water. Obviously if you live somewhere with bad tap water it's different. But in NYC there's no good reason.
#flintlives
   2833. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5933823)
A water/sewage disaster resulting in lengthy outages is possible, with idiots who run out of toilet paper flushing paper towels, baby wipes, pieces of newspaper, etc.
   2834. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5933824)
A water/sewage disaster resulting in lengthy outages is possible, with idiots who run out of toilet paper flushing paper towels, baby wipes, pieces of newspaper, etc.
just hop into the shower.
   2835. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5933827)

A water/sewage disaster resulting in lengthy outages is possible, with idiots who run out of toilet paper flushing paper towels, baby wipes, pieces of newspaper, etc.

Has anyone actually run out of toilet paper, or know anyone who ran out of toilet paper?
   2836. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5933829)
anyone pooping in a shower at MAH house gonna get his ass kicked so HARD he gonna look like 9 month pregnant grrrl

run out of TP? yes, a few old people I know, brought them some
   2837. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5933832)
So you can hide bodies, by never testing people who die. It seems probably Italy has been doing just that, even if it was partially or entirely inadvertent.


I think in the hard-hit places in the US there is a stated policy to not test people who die, and also to not test people who are already sick enough that the test wouldn't affect how they get treated. If we ever don't have a shortage of tests this might change.
   2838. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5933833)

anyone pooping in a shower at MAH house gonna get his ass kicked so HARD he gonna look like 9 month pregnant grrrl


Not pooping in the shower, showering "off" afterwards.

I told a woman friend of mine that was my emergency plan after we had exhausted all TP (we were already out of PT at that point) and usable paper products.

She was like, "clever, very clever, also I'm never going near your shower again."


Has anyone actually run out of toilet paper, or know anyone who ran out of toilet paper?


I share a bathroom with a housemate and we were down to one roll, before he swung by his mom's house and scored a 4 pack of Scott ... which should last several weeks.

Turns out we would have been ok, our downstairs housemate has plenty and since she decided to hole up in Vegas with her boytoy until "things calm down", we can always raid her stash (she's not coming back any time soon).

   2839. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5933834)
If we ever don't have a shortage of tests this might change.


Not a matter of a shortage of tests. It's a shortage of the PPE needed to administer the test. A self test kit is coming which should oviate that problem.
   2840. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5933835)
Not pooping in the shower, showering "off" afterwards.

I told a woman friend of mine that was my emergency plan after we had exhausted all TP (we were already out of PT at that point) and usable paper products.

She was like, "clever, very clever, also I'm never going near your shower again."


People are really weird. My morning constitutional takes place on a toilet right next to my shower. If we run out of TP, for sure I will just take a freakin shower after I am finished. C'mon! The Romans used to share sponges! And they ruled the whole Western world. We can survive without toilet paper!
   2841. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5933836)
We can survive without toilet paper!


GO LONG ON BIDETS!
   2842. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5933837)
Georgia schools officially closed until at least April 24.
   2843. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 26, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5933839)
Everyone remembers Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, whose initial study was so influential -- essentially the driving force behind the shutdowns. Well, he's back in the news today, providing evidence to a parliamentary inquiry in the UK.


Really good news if the extract is true. The UK's likely to have severely limited movements for 2-3 months as a minimum, but according to Ferguson, that plus the ramp-up of medical resources may save - may already be saving - 490,000 lives. It's impossible to scale that directly to other countries, as the UK has certain unique factors in its composition, as do all nations, but some basic comparisons suggest that globally, millions of lives could be saved. Millions even within the US, according to the Imperial College modelling.
   2844. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5933841)
miserlou

there was a shortage of tests here in houston AND in all of texas LONG before they started worrying about PPE
   2845. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5933842)
The bottled water hoarding made no sense to me. If you're going to be stuck at home all day, it's actually the easiest time to make the environmentally conscious decision and drink tap water. Obviously if you live somewhere with bad tap water it's different. But in NYC there's no good reason.
People want to ‘do something’ in a crisis, so they pick easy stuff like stocking up on TP & bottled water, which wasn’t really necessary, as well as hand sanitizer, which would be useful. Hopefully, they’re also doing the physical distancing and enhanced hygiene measures, which seems to mostly be the case.
   2846. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:23 PM (#5933843)
   2847. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5933844)
she decided to hole up in Vegas


What a strange place to hole up during this.
   2848. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:27 PM (#5933846)
Chicago closed the entire lakefront today, as well as other public spaces, because apparently people *still* can't get it through their heads that "stay at home" means "stay the #### at home."

It's like we're a country full of Cartmans.
   2849. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5933848)
GO LONG ON BIDETS!


Squeezable water bottle and a washcloth. We actually still have a handful of cloth diapers lying around (don't ask me why; youngest kid is 25!).
   2850. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:31 PM (#5933849)
Chicago closed the entire lakefront today, as well as other public spaces, because apparently people *still* can't get it through their heads that "stay at home" means "stay the #### at home."


I could have done with the scary emergency phone alert on the announcement though.... I suppose it's the best way to inform a lot of people all at once though. Maybe the system just needs to add more than one tone -- a softer ding, dang, dong for alerts like this.
   2851. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5933850)
Well, here we go - looks like the train is pulling away from the station:

Illinois saw a spike of 673 coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the statewide total to 2,538 with 26 deaths, health officials said Thursday.
   2852. SoSH U at work Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5933851)
Chicago closed the entire lakefront today, as well as other public spaces, because apparently people *still* can't get it through their heads that "stay at home" means "stay the #### at home."


The mayor showed remarkable restraint in never once using the phrase dumbfucks during her briefing yesterday, though it was clear she wanted to.
   2853. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:42 PM (#5933852)
LA County saw a similar spike, but the reason given was that testing is more prevalent, not to mention catching up with a backlog of samples.
   2854. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:44 PM (#5933853)
I haven't seen anything to that effect in media reports for Illinois, although they did just announce it a couple hours ago. You'd think that the authorities would emphasize that in the announcement if that was the case, though.
   2855. Due to the leadership of Zonk... Posted: March 26, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5933854)
The mayor showed remarkable restraint in never once using the phrase dumbfucks during her briefing yesterday, though it was clear she wanted to.


Some officials are being less restrained... which can also be a good thing.
   2856. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 26, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5933858)
Some officials are being less restrained... which can also be a good thing.

Am I the only person who think it's odd that the word for poop can be spelled out explicitly, but the word for screw needs to be redacted?
   2857. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5933860)
The US has now passed China and Italy in (reported) COVID-19 deaths.
   2858. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5933861)

What a strange place to hole up during this.


Nookie.
   2859. Snowboy Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5933862)
The US has now passed China and Italy in (reported) COVID-19 deaths.

Source please? That doesn't sound correct.
   2860. Jay Z Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:16 PM (#5933863)
One of the ongoing issues has been how do you value life and/or we cannot give a value on it. I think it was PF or someone how says they would abstain from the argument of putting a value to it. However, dont we do this every day? We cross the street to go to work, we'er not going to avoid that risk if it means we cant afford to have a house or cant afford new clothes. We make choices/valuations like this every day. Perhaps not consciously, perhaps not by using specific numbers. Instead we say "the risk is very slight" and I need to eat. But we still do it.


But we've made life safer for that sort of thing over time. Traffic deaths peaked in 1972. They're a quarter, per mile driven, of what they were. Even in 1972 driving was five times safer, per mile, than it had been when records started in 1920.

Mass transit, also safer. Homes likely safer as well. Workplaces safer, at least in the USA.

Plus, food is now a tiny portion of our real budget. Even animals place danger above food. They're not starving yet, a threat is perceived, they take off.

So I think people are making the correct calculus in prizing their safety above the pittance in real value it takes to get a meal today.

Of the three parts of the economy, capital, labor, and consumers, it's clear to me that the consumers are the most valuable today. W didn't make his "go shopping" comment for nothing. Labor, real value of labor is tough because of productivity improvements and automation. Only need so many people for the vital tasks. Capital, look at the interest rates. Plenty of that to go around. Consumption is the rare one.
   2861. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:18 PM (#5933864)
Source please? That doesn't sound correct.


Here you go.

China OR Italy, not China AND Italy, to be clear.

But we're #1 now in something besides incarceration rates!
   2862. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:18 PM (#5933865)
Source please? That doesn't sound correct.

Here is one example. China stopped reporting cases, essentially, weeks ago. Nobody knows whether that's because they have the virus under control or because they've decided it's better to pretend everything is rosy.
   2863. Snowboy Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:23 PM (#5933867)
Thanks for link.
I suspected you misspelled "deaths" for "cases", and link confirms it. Not yet ahead of either in deaths.

ADDED: It's a health situation, but also a political shell game. For example, Italy having huge spike in death rate, but now stops assigning cause of death to corona, leading to what looks like drop in deaths attributed to virus. Certain areas drop back rate of testing, making it look like less cases, while others who ramp up testing get cracked because as more cases get reported it looks like disease is spreading. Honest and transparent reporting and testing would help this situation, but there is a strong economic argument to not tell everyone to stay at home.
   2864. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:26 PM (#5933868)
Thanks for link.
I suspected you misspelled "deaths" for "cases", and link confirms it. Not yet ahead of either in deaths.


You're right. It's cases, not deaths.

Unless a miracle occurs, we'll pace the field in that category soon enough.
   2865. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5933869)
How is the morale of the staff?

It’s pretty common to see someone crying in the hallway. I saw that twice today. Something like 12 people died yesterday. [The New York Times reported 13 deaths.] These are bonkers numbers for a hospital, where you’d usually have one or two a day. They don’t even change in and out of PPE. They gear up one time, and that’s it for the whole shift. They don’t want to be exposed for a second, and lots of them are already calling out with fevers. The morale among ER people is extremely low. People are anxious, making morbid jokes about dying. Talking about what would happen if I quit, I didn’t sign up for this.

The chatter you hear outside of these units is very grim. An attending will come in and say, “I’m flashing back to Vietnam” or “it’s a ####### nightmare” or “this box of masks will last until Friday.” It’s bad.

The patients are all silent. Because they are being intubated and in medically induced comas. Normally patients this sick are surrounded by family, who are talking to you and asking questions, concerned, crying. But there’s no visitors allowed in the hospital now so these people are dying alone. There’s this awful quietness. This mechanical hiss, in and out, back and forth, of the ventilator.

As someone who takes care of critically ill patients, I’m used to seeing people on ventilators. I’m used to the idea that patients can’t respond. But normally not all of my patients are intubated — some people will be recovering. This is just so different. Everyone is doing worse all the time. The only way more vents are freeing up is more people are dying. It’s crushing.


From Doctor At Overwhelmed Hospital's Inside Account Of Treating Coronavirus Patients

h/t greenback
   2866. Snowboy Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5933872)
Unless a miracle occurs, we'll pace the field in that category soon enough.


Probably true, just not yet.

I apologize for pointing out the error. This has mostly been a great, informative thread, but I don't want misinformation to spread. Meanwhile, yeah, it'll soon be small beer when we look back and analyze "when did THIS moment happen?"
   2867. Tony S Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5933874)
I apologize for pointing out the error.


Oh, you're fine. I HAD originally read it as "deaths".
   2868. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 26, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5933875)
China OR Italy, not China AND Italy, to be clear.

We have cranked up the testing though, and we'll probably pass the combined total in a little over a week.

I guess "reported cases" is kinda becoming the equivalent to batting average in terms of quantifying the spread of the disease.
   2869. Greg Pope Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5933877)
If we run out of TP, for sure I will just take a freakin shower after I am finished.

Yeah. Hop in the shower, use a washcloth, then throw it in the washer. I mean, people still use reusable diapers, it's basically the same thing.

Of course, I had picked up a package from Sam's Club about a week before this shortage hit, so I figure I'm good for another 2 months, at least. Although the two younger children should be in high school and the two older ones should be in college. Instead, they're all using the facilities at home for the foreseeable future...
   2870. Greg Pope Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5933880)
The mayor showed remarkable restraint in never once using the phrase dumbfucks during her briefing yesterday, though it was clear she wanted to.

Governor Pritzker is the cool but firm dad. He set the rules. When people broke them, he said he was mad, but he basically said, "I'm disappointed in you. You didn't listen. Now here's whats going to happen."

Mayor Lightfoot is the stern mom. She told everyone to stay home. They didn't. She flipped out and basically said, "I told you to do something and you didn't do it! That's it! I'm grounding you for a month!"

I think they're both doing well, but they have very different styles.
   2871. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5933884)
China had a couple of days with zero cases reported, but has been running a little under a hundred a day this month. Believe them or don't as you see fit, but it isn't correct to say that they've stopped reporting new cases.
   2872. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:13 PM (#5933890)
Speaking of conditions in Chicago, I went shopping today for the first time in 11 days. I live in the boundary area between the far western Chicago suburbs and true farm country. Everything I wanted was in stock, even TP, paper towels, and cleaning supplies. There were even some 12 packs of TP available. The last time I shopped, there were giant holes on the shelves where things should have been, but I didn't see any holes today. I didn't look at hand sanitizers, so I don't know if they were available.

There was one interesting event. A lady had a shopping cart loaded to the brim with cleaning supplies when one of the store managers told her there that "while there is no explicit limit on cleaning supplies, the store was suggesting that people only take what they need now and not hoard it." They talked quietly for a little while and she left with the full cart of supplies.
   2873. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:15 PM (#5933891)
A lady had a shopping cart loaded to the brim with cleaning supplies when one of the store managers told her there that "while there is no explicit limit on cleaning supplies, the store was suggesting that people only take what they need now and not hoard it." They talked quietly for a little while and she left with the full cart of supplies.
Yep, she's a Cartman.
   2874. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5933893)
I guess "reported cases" is kinda becoming the equivalent to batting average in terms of quantifying the spread of the disease.
no, it's junk data. it's the equivalent of batting average vs. RH relief pitchers, in day games, on odd numbered dates, following a rest day.

it should be meaningful data, but the spottiness in the collection of it means it has no utility whatsoever.
But we're #1 now in something besides incarceration rates!
obesity?
   2875. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5933894)
Epstein wrote a follow-up article for the Hoover Institute three days ago now (currently 2nd most popular on the site) predicting 2000-2500 US deaths. Too stupid to link to, but the below probably takes the cake. Apparently, since this problem will last at least 3 months, any government action now is foolish. What we really need is more debate.

We need a public debate on the political response to COVID-19, and we need it now. I fully understand the need for immediate responses to immediate threats, like fires, but not for crises that may last for three months or more.
   2876. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:27 PM (#5933896)
China had a couple of days with zero cases reported, but has been running a little under a hundred a day this month. Believe them or don't as you see fit, but it isn't correct to say that they've stopped reporting new cases.

I did put the word "essentially" in there for that reason. What you're describing is rounding error. To transform that quickly from where they were to where they are, they have essentially stopped reporting cases. The US had as many new positive cases today as China claims to have had in total outside Hubei. Either they are propagating one of the great lies of the 21st century, or they are responsible for possibly the greatest public health success in history. There is no middle ground here.
   2877. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5933897)
Most of the cases that China's reported recently have been identified as travelers returning from abroad.
   2878. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5933898)
I fully understand the need for immediate responses to immediate threats
I'm not sure you do, guy.
   2879. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:31 PM (#5933899)
I did put the word "essentially" in there for that reason. What you're describing is rounding error. To transform that quickly from where they were to where they are, they have essentially stopped reporting cases. The US had as many new positive cases today as China claims to have had in total outside Hubei. Either they are propagating one of the great lies of the 21st century, or they are responsible for possibly the greatest public health success in history. There is no middle ground here.
"it's not a lie...if you believe it."
   2880. base ball chick Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5933900)
Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:13 PM (#5933890)

There was one interesting event. A lady had a shopping cart loaded to the brim with cleaning supplies when one of the store managers told her there that "while there is no explicit limit on cleaning supplies, the store was suggesting that people only take what they need now and not hoard it." They talked quietly for a little while and she left with the full cart of supplies


- well, youneverknow

she might could be getting stuff for shut in people who don't dare even go to the grocery store

i do that
   2881. greenback slays lewks Posted: March 26, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5933901)
it should be meaningful data, but the spottiness in the collection of it means it has no utility whatsoever.

This is false. It establishes a clear floor on expected deaths two weeks from now. We will not go below 200 deaths per day for the next two weeks. Yes, that's on the low side, but it's pretty easy to see that Richard Epstein has a problem already. More seriously, you can get a little smarter with the modeling and come up with a mortality multiplier, although you will need to have an almost constant adjustment.
   2882. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5933904)
Neil Ferguson on Twitter:

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
   2883. bobm Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:45 PM (#5933906)
[2819]
#2814 Policy choices can give you an implied value rather than an explicitly stated one. See for instance the paper "An Empiric Estimate of the Value of Life: Updating the Renal Dialysis Cost-Effectiveness Standard" (which gets each year of quality life as $129K)

What's more, there's a Department of Transportation document called, "Guidance on Treatment of the Economic Value of a Statistical Life" which got the value at $9.2M in 2014 and a revised calculation had it at $9.6M two years later.

And in 2010 the FDA got it at $7.9M and the EPA got it at $9.1M

All in all US policy choices seem to give a reasonably consistent result.

All numbers nabbed from wiki. Value of life


See also the "September 11th Victim Compensation Fund" and Kenneth Feinberg's work. wiki

DOJ statistics:

TABLE I
General Award Statistics
(last updated January 28, 2005)
Claims Submitted 7,408
Total Claims Resolved by the Office of the Special Master 7,408
Number of Award Letters Issued 5,562*
Other Claims Resolved by the Office of Special Master 1,846**
Average Deceased Victims Awards After Offsets $2,082,128
Median Deceased Victims Awards After Offsets $1,677,633

* Claimants have 21 days to respond to award letters.
** Includes inactive, denied, denied on-appeal, and voluntarily withdrawn claims.

TABLE II
Range of Award Values
for Claims Relating to Deceased Victims

Award Ranges Stated Are After Collateral Offsets
        Income Level         Age Range
     $50,000 or less 35 or Under $250,000 to $3.2 million
     $50,000 or less     Over 35 $250,000 to $4.1 million
 $50,000 to $100,000 35 or Under $250,000 to $4.2 million
 $50,000 to $100,000     Over 35 $250,000 to $4.3 million
$100,000 to $200,000    All Ages $250,000 to $5.5 million
       Over $200,000    All Ages $250,000 to $7.1 million

   2884. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:46 PM (#5933907)
A lady had a shopping cart loaded to the brim with cleaning supplies when one of the store managers told her there that "while there is no explicit limit on cleaning supplies, the store was suggesting that people only take what they need now and not hoard it." They talked quietly for a little while and she left with the full cart of supplies.

this is so Midwestern (and I love the Midwest).

but it reminds me that in my very sporadic forays of the past 2 weeks, while not even getting within 6 feet of anybody at all - I have not heard one single cough, still, in spite of the deathly quiet environments. the legendary.... er, gruffness of Jersey is a curse and a blessing.

if someone out here has, say, a typical light cough from allergies or whatever - I suspect they are self-quarantining. belt out a cough in the middle of a supermarket, and you might just get a "knuckle sandwich."

that hoarder? well, I was just watching one of those Jurassic Park movies and I think of that. the footage on the local news would just show the ravenous crowd forming around here - and then the blood spatter on the side of the checkout aisle glass.
   2885. bobm Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5933908)
   2886. PreservedFish Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:08 PM (#5933911)
Those compensation numbers are fundamentally different from the numbers that Ron J posted, which do not attempt to quantify a person's earning potential or economic productivity but rather are "used to quantify the benefit of avoiding a [single] fatality."
   2887. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:14 PM (#5933913)
I did put the word "essentially" in there for that reason.


Sorry, missed that. But count me in the "hard to hide bodies" camp. Even for the Chinese communist party. Impossible to know from where we sit, but maybe they really were able to essentially stop the thing with the "advantage" of totalitarianism.
   2888. Homer Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:14 PM (#5933914)
Thanks for the link 2885
   2889. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5933917)
she might could be getting stuff for shut in people who don't dare even go to the grocery store


I'm guessing that it was more industrial. I noticed her a couple of seconds before the manager said something and I did a double take because the cart was loaded with a bunch of the large size bottles (1-2 gallon?) of cleaners. There were no normal house sizes.

I just thought it interesting that a store employee talked to someone about hoarding even though they didn't impose any limits of the products being bought.
   2890. Howie Menckel Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5933918)
my only comment on the 9-11 aspect is, as I have mentioned often here, my father was FDNY for 39 years - and long retired by that tragic day.

he was distressed, though, by the massive fundraising for families of those fallen firefighters -just because so many others badly needed those charitable donations but would miss out.

"that's how the whole thing worked - you risked your life on the job, but you always knew that if you didn't make it, your family was fully taken care of," he said. "what is this other money supposed to do?"

the road to hell really is paved with good intentions.
   2891. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: March 26, 2020 at 11:36 PM (#5933919)
I'm guessing that it was more industrial. I noticed her a couple of seconds before the manager said something and I did a double take because the cart was loaded with a bunch of the large size bottles (1-2 gallon?) of cleaners. There were no normal house sizes.

I just thought it interesting that a store employee talked to someone about hoarding even though they didn't impose any limits of the products being bought.
there's a fine line between hoarding cleaning supplies during an emergency, and stocking up on chemical reagents in order to build a truck bomb.
   2892. PepTech Posted: March 27, 2020 at 12:53 AM (#5933923)
Washington State:

March 12: 4807 tested, 457 positive, 4350 negative
March 13: 6569 tested, 568 positive, 6001 negative
March 14: 7766 tested, 642 positive, 7122 negative, 40 dead.
March 15: 10220 tested, 769 positive, 9451 negative, 42 dead.
March 16: 12486 tested, 904 positive, 11582 negative, 48 dead.
March 17: 14129 tested, 1012 positive, 13117 negative, 52 dead.
March 18: 17195 tested, 1187 positive, 15918 negative. 66 dead.
March 19: 20712 tested, 1376 positive, 19336 negative, 74 dead.
March 20: 23243 tested, 1524 positive, 21719 negative, 83 dead.
March 21: 27121 tested, 1793 positive, 25328 negative, 94 dead.
March 22: 30875 tested, 1996 positive, 28879 negative, 95 dead.
March 23: 33933 tested, 2221 positive, 31712 negative, 110 dead.
March 24: 34181 tested, 2469 positive, 31712 negative, 123 dead.
March 25: 34292 tested, 2580 positive, 31712 negative, 132 dead.


March 26: 46380 tested, 3207 positive, 43173 negative, 147 dead.

Testing ramping up bigtime. Also, the UW has a revised analysis of The Curve, with estimates of peaks in different states and a total US tally of 81,000.
   2893. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: March 27, 2020 at 01:21 AM (#5933927)
Walking on the beach on eastern Long Island today, I saw a group of about a dozen older adults (youngest one I spied looked to be about 60) sitting close to each other having a ####### picnic.

Alternatively, my dad is spending every waking moment disinfecting everything he sees and won't stop talking about how he needs to get a gun to prepare for the coming hordes (if he does go make the purchase, my mom will probably immediately use said gun to murder him).

And my one-year-old nephew won't stop touching his face, and he never washes his hands. We're all doomed.
   2894. BrianBrianson Posted: March 27, 2020 at 03:42 AM (#5933932)
I know it feels like deliberate undercounting when you're confined to your house and hitting refresh every 30 seconds, but the reality probably has a big dose of "once community spread is the main transmission mechanism, determining cause of death isn't a priority". When you can hope to trace individual infections and confine people along those lines, you want really good data and quickly. Now, there are a lot of places where accurate and timely numbers aren't going to be a priority.
   2895. Ron J Posted: March 27, 2020 at 07:18 AM (#5933934)
#2824 He had been tested.

Sent to jail while waiting for the results to come back.
   2896. Ron J Posted: March 27, 2020 at 07:34 AM (#5933937)
#2886 There's an interesting disconnect between compensation amounts and implied value of life in policy decision. Presumably because potential earnings figure in the former.

Bobm, thanks for digging up those numbers.
   2897. Ron J Posted: March 27, 2020 at 08:04 AM (#5933942)
Hopefully this generates a storm and … speeds up the assessment (from Political Wire which references a NYT article)

“The White House had been preparing on Wednesday to announce amid an escalating pandemic that a joint venture between General Motors and Ventec Life Systems would begin producing as many as 80,000 desperately needed ventilators when word suddenly came down that the announcement was off,” the New York Times reports.

“The decision to cancel the announcement, according to government officials, came after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it needed more time to assess whether the estimated cost was prohibitive — more than $1 billion.”

Yes, the headlines for most articles say something like, "called off" when the actual claim is "need more time to assess".

And yes, there are unconfirmed reports that this is driven by Trump's skepticism about the need. In a sense I hope it's true because if it is he can approve and cry, "Fake News!". Because the real key is to get more ventilators in a timely fashion.

On a related note, the UK is getting 10,000 ventilators from Dyson. Went from call from Boris Johnson to design to production in 10 days.

EDIT: Perhaps not unconfirmed. Kaitlan Collins (on twitter) posted

Trump: "I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals sometimes and they'll have two ventilators. Now all of a sudden they're saying, 'Can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"

Not sure the source of the quote.
   2898. Sebastian Posted: March 27, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5933944)
Talking about Boris Johnson, guess who just tested positive?
   2899. Tony S Posted: March 27, 2020 at 08:25 AM (#5933946)
The decision to cancel the announcement, according to government officials, came after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it needed more time to assess whether the estimated cost was prohibitive — more than $1 billion.”


Were these kinds of questions asked when the issue was bailing out Boeing and other companies? Because that involved a lot more than $1 billion.


We need a public debate on the political response to COVID-19, and we need it now. I fully understand the need for immediate responses to immediate threats, like fires, but not for crises that may last for three months or more.


"We need to come up with a rationale for throwing seniors under the bus that doesn't sound quite as crass as the one's we've offered up to this point."
   2900. BrianBrianson Posted: March 27, 2020 at 08:28 AM (#5933949)
Politicians are probably not as bad now, but that loads of them would be positive ain't surprising. They travel a lot, meet and touch a lot of people, etc.
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