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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   3101. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:14 AM (#5934344)
So, all the world’s non-Trump governments are doing better than the U.S.? The data doesn’t seem to show that.
The US is comfortably in the bottom third of governments.
Thats pretty misleading. The U.S. is doing better than most of the countries that have significant interaction with China and roughly comparable health care. Just in Western Europe, the U.S has a lower per capita death rate than Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, U.K., Sweden, Denmark, Portugal & Austria. Many of the countries that claim a lower rate just don’t collect or announce the data well or at all.

Those who take a negative view of all things Trump want to blame him for the Corona Virus crisis, but not many are buying it, perhaps because most of those same folks were highly critical of Trump when he imposed China travel restrictions. Given the interconnected world and the U.S being a most-favored travel destination, no President would have been able to keep the virus entirely out of the country.
   3102. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:23 AM (#5934345)
Every President would and should avoid picking fights with individual states
   3103. tshipman Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:25 AM (#5934346)
Just in Western Europe, the U.S has a lower per capita death rate than Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, U.K., Sweden, Denmark, Portugal & Austria


So far.

Remember earlier in the thread when you were confidently going to spring training games?

no President would have been able to keep the virus entirely out of the country.


This is a total strawman.
   3104. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:28 AM (#5934347)
Every President would and should avoid picking fights with individual states
"time for some traffic problems in fort lee lansing"
   3105. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:36 AM (#5934349)
   3106. deleuze68 Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:44 AM (#5934350)
I came across this document today https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf

I find it interesting because a lot of the discourse has focused on American exceptionalism/unpreparedness for a pandemic of severe proportions. These guidelines suggest that this reasoning is slightly unfair. Bill Gates was not the only one who foresaw today's dilemna. Of particular note is that an excess supply of ventillators would not make a difference since there would not be enough health care professionals trained to properly operate the ventillators ("purchasing additional ventilators beyond a threshold will not save additional lives, because there will not be a sufficient number of trained staff to operate them") There is also the consideration that the cost to stockpile enough ventillators to satisfy the most severe pandemic has to be weighed against the cost to fulfill present health initiatives. Thus, on page 30 NY calculated that there would be suffiicient ventillators to satisfy the needs of a pandemic on the scale of 1958 or 1969 but during peak demand week of an influenza pandemic on the scale of 1918 there would be a shortage of 15,000+ ventillators. Hence the need to triage patients prioritizing those that have the greatest chance of survival.

It is sort of eerie perusing this document as it appears to be written yesterday when in fact it is 5 years old. I'll leave you with this from page 72, "Many people, however, will not be aware of the Guidelines until a pandemic is declared. At that time, the public should be informed about the goals and steps of the clinical ventilator allocation protocols. Information should emphasize that pandemic influenza is potentially fatal, that health care providers are doing their best with limited resources, and the public must adjust to a different way of providing and receiving health care than is customary"
   3107. PepTech Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:44 AM (#5934351)
Right, Antietam :D
   3108. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:47 AM (#5934352)
So far. Remember earlier in the thread when you were confidently going to spring training games?
I noted that spring training attendance was about the same to provide anecdotal evidence of how baseball was affected by the virus. I don’t recall making any predictions, confident or otherwise, about whether all games would be played, and I’m hard-pressed to see how the fact that games were canceled was Trump’s fault.
   3109. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:47 AM (#5934353)
3036. PepTech Posted: March 27, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5934240)
@Howie - Sorry, no intent to single you out or anything. As the Commish surmised, just happened to click on the front page for this thread and thought "wow, how things have changed". Nothing to do with you (or puck).

I was actually thinking along the same lines as you - picking up cheap flights to Vegas or Hawaii, in my case...

But that was then.

my apologies, PepTech.

I actually tried to delete my post just in case, upon further review - but just missed the quick 'remorse' time frame of BBTF.
   3110. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:57 AM (#5934354)
"I look at my own behavior and consider myself very lucky that I didn't contract it, since I was basically living my normal life in NYC until 3 weeks ago."

that's from Dave "Never Give An Inge" in 3054.

we have met (and I recommend same!).

I can objectively say that given our age and relative fitness, him being in "normal life" in NYC until around March 6 and me being taking a train to and from midtown Manhattan on Feb. 29 and driving to Newark - with countless mass transit connections for those I encountered at a conference to and from midtown - on March 10-11 makes me, it appears, (literally) the bigger bullet dodged.

of course, Yogi - who lived in my neck of the woods - warned us that it ain't over til it's over.
   3111. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 02:00 AM (#5934355)
The lag from infection to death is roughly 14 days. Things started seriously locking down roughly 10 days ago, so we still have at least 4 more days until any decrease in new infections shows up in new deaths.
I think things began to change at least a week earlier than that, when hand sanitizer disappeared from the stores. Presumably, people were using it, and washing their hands more frequently. Mitigation efforts continued to ramp up with a cascade of actions by governments and businesses, which probably did peak about a week ago, but the initial steps may have some effect.
   3112. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 28, 2020 at 02:01 AM (#5934356)
#3106 - Thans for the link. If only they could be usefully weaponized there'd be no shortage.
   3113. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:34 AM (#5934360)
Thats pretty misleading. The U.S. is doing better than most of the countries that have significant interaction with China and roughly comparable health care. Just in Western Europe, the U.S has a lower per capita death rate than Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, U.K., Sweden, Denmark, Portugal & Austria. Many of the countries that claim a lower rate just don’t collect or announce the data well or at all.

Thats pretty misleading.
   3114. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:25 AM (#5934361)
Let's all just agree that Trump's doing better than Bolsonaro.
   3115. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:54 AM (#5934363)
So I actually watched the video posted in 3080 that prompted this summary:

TL;DR: this pandemic should have been drowned in a bathtub months ago, and the reason we're at this point is, essentially, trump.

The video, in fact, doesn't even mention Trump, nor does it explicitly discuss any policy decisions, real or hypothetical, at all. So I would categorize this as a lazy, bull-#### OT:P comment that doesn't belong in this thread.

The video is a primer on disease spread and how different factors change the growth pattern. The conclusions are basically similar to the Imperial College study, which is that as long as we're falling short of the standard that South Korea set - aggressively contract tracing and isolating in addition to social distancing, ceasing travel, and improving hygiene - the infection will grow bigtime. Social distancing is terrific, but as soon as people stop, the virus explodes in a second wave. And if even only 10% of the population flouts social distancing measures, damn near the whole country gets infected eventually. It also concludes that limiting domestic travel would only have a limited effect.

I despise Trump and I think his behavior in all this has been, in total, an embarrassment. But I don't think it's realistic to think that he singlehandedly stood in the way of a South Korea style attack on this infection. The experience of basically all the other Western democracies shows that we cannot assume that a competent executive would have done it.

Obviously there was a total debacle in the CDC with ramping up reliable testing, but it seems like a stretch to blame that on Trump rather than typical bureaucratic inefficiency. I'm not sure that if you gave Dr. Fauci dictatorial powers and an unlimited budget that he would have done what was needed to quash the outbreak on American soil.

This has been a great thread, but comments like "this is all Trump's fault" bring the level of conversation way down, and they inspire further ###-for-tat bullshit OT:P comments that derail everything for those of us that are totally uninterested in political posturing.
   3116. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:58 AM (#5934364)
Ha, ###.
   3117. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:45 AM (#5934369)


Spain deaths

3/19 1326
3/20 1720 +30%
3/23 2182 +27%
3/24 2696 +24%
3/25 3434 +27%
3/26 4089 +19%
3/27 4858 +19%
3/28 5690 +17%


Madrid
Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
March 27     2412            322
March 28     2757            343
   3118. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 08:05 AM (#5934370)
Would you care to guess what the Madrid death curve would look like in the absence of control measures?
   3119. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 08:41 AM (#5934371)
A friend of mine who works in the MD health-care bureaucracy tells me that "Our state is on top of things. We had a meeting Friday and there is a lot going on behind the scenes here in Maryland to handle the virus. Our state healthcare infrastructure has the flexibility to respond where the rest of the country can't."

I cross my fingers he's right. This was a private conversation, not a public press release, so I have no reason to disbelieve him.
   3120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5934372)
Would you care to guess what the Madrid death curve would look like in the absence of control measures?


Twice the number of deaths so far, but no slowing down of deaths on the near horizon. Maybe 2.5 to 3 million already infected. People massively infecting the rest of Spain. 40,000-50,000 likely to die even if they were to start a lockdown now.
   3121. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 28, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5934374)
Would you care to guess what the Madrid death curve would look like in the absence of control measures?

Probably not too different from the one in #3117. We are only just moving into the window where we see any impact on the number of deaths from SD measures (depending whether it is closer to 14 days from infection to death or 18). Probably would be around 400-450 a day currently, but that's little more than an educated guess.

The real benefit is that hopefully it starts tapering off now, and we aren't over 1000 a day in a week, or multiples of that in a fortnight.
   3122. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: March 28, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5934377)
"I look at my own behavior and consider myself very lucky that I didn't contract it, since I was basically living my normal life in NYC until 3 weeks ago."


No way of knowing if it has been a factor, but thanks to my car theft 3 weeks ago today I basically got a one-week head start on social distancing & such. Regaining mobility, for various reasons, took me most of the ensuing week, to the point that I spent only 6 or 7 hours, tops, in the office. We've been working from home ever since.
   3123. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 09:09 AM (#5934380)

I started staying home from work on Wednesday 11 March, a few days ahead of most of the rest of the state. My employer was declared essential and remains open (they're doing some social distancing at the workplace, but I'm taking no chances) so I've just been burning PTO. Better than getting sick.
   3124. BrianBrianson Posted: March 28, 2020 at 09:38 AM (#5934382)
Yeah, it's obviously dishonest to compare countries by where they are today, rather than to when it first broke out or whatnot. It's probably not worth engaging such silliness.

There are countries that're going to be much worse than the US. Egypt and Iran are two very obvious ones. So we'll see what that case looks like.
   3125. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 09:56 AM (#5934384)
I reckon India most likely will end up the runaway "leader" in this nightmare ...
   3126. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:23 AM (#5934395)
India, a place where they still don't have tuberculosis beat, and one not exactly known for high sanitation standards, seems like a tinderbox. But it also has relatively few elderly, very little smoking, and very little obesity. They have shut the entire nation down to an improbable degree - trains, buses etc are all stopped, you're not even supposed to go to the grocery store. This will have insane unintended consequences - reports are that huge numbers of people are walking hundreds of miles to get from here to there, and who knows what else in a land of such poverty and inconceivable diversity - but it could also slow the spread of the virus considerably. I guess I'm saying, who knows.
   3127. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5934400)
Spain deaths

3/19 1326
3/20 1720 +30%
3/23 2182 +27%
3/24 2696 +24%
3/25 3434 +27%
3/26 4089 +19%
3/27 4858 +19%
3/28 5690 +17%


El Pais has acquired a copy of a recent report that looks at excess deaths in three of the hardest-hit areas: Madrid, Castilla-León and Castilla-La Mancha. It indicates that the number of excess deaths over the last 7-10 days over the baseline suggests a much greater number of deaths than officially reported.

For example: for the period March 10-16, Madrid reported 192 deaths from the coronavirus. Average mortality for that week is 794, actual dead was 1318, or 524 excess deaths. It suggests based on this that the total death count is at least double the official totals. Part of this seems to be a policy to only register a death due to COVID-19 if there was a positive test.
   3128. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 28, 2020 at 10:58 AM (#5934401)
It's not a conspiracy theory if all it takes is one or two people making a mistake with no agenda or motive. It's Occam's Razor.


You ever seen a BSL-3 lab? Occam puts bats ahead of lab accident by several orders of magnitude.

In the immortal words of Laurence Fishburne: We don't have to worry about somebody weaponizing bird flu. The birds are taking care of that.
   3129. bob gee Posted: March 28, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5934402)
Northern NJ hospitals and the struggles, forgoing CPR on corona virus patients, etc.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/columnists/christopher-maag/2020/03/28/coronavirus-nj-covid-19-overwhelms-one-hospital-threatens-another/2930244001/
   3130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5934407)

El Pais has acquired a copy of a recent report that looks at excess deaths in three of the hardest-hit areas: Madrid, Castilla-León and Castilla-La Mancha. It indicates that the number of excess deaths over the last 7-10 days over the baseline suggests a much greater number of deaths than officially reported.

For example: for the period March 10-16, Madrid reported 192 deaths from the coronavirus. Average mortality for that week is 794, actual dead was 1318, or 524 excess deaths. It suggests based on this that the total death count is at least double the official totals. Part of this seems to be a policy to only register a death due to COVID-19 if there was a positive test.
Thanks This seems to be happening all over the world now--only those tested count as coronavirus deaths, when there are a lot of people who never get tested, for various reasons. I was hoping large places like Madrid might be more accurate than smaller places like Bergamo, but maybe that isn't the case. Frightening.
   3131. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5934418)
Unsurprisingly, the swine flu death estimates are based on looking back at excess deaths after the fact.

“Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact,” says the CDC in a website explanation of how it estimates deaths caused by seasonal influenza.

Researchers such as Viboud use a time series analysis to estimate how many excess deaths in a given period can be attributed to a viral disease such as the flu but are not counted in the official death statistics.

For instance, in the 2009 swine flu pandemic, 2,096 laboratory‐confirmed deaths were reported in the United States from Aug. 30, 2009, to April 6, 2010, the second wave. But a 2013 study that Viboud participated in concluded that the excess deaths that could be attributed to the pandemic in that period amounted to about 14,800. In other words, the official lab count in the United States missed 6 in 7 deaths.

Another 2013 study, examining data across the globe, concluded that the World Health Organization laboratory-confirmed count missed 9 in 10 deaths that could be attributed to the swine flu pandemic.


Direct comparison numbers for the US at this stage would give you the following:


Swine Flu

April 15, 2009 — first infection detected
June 19, 2009 — 21,449 cases, 87 deaths

Covid-19

Jan. 20, 2020 — first infection detected
March 25, 2020 — 69,344 cases, 1,050 deaths
   3132. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: March 28, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5934438)
I reckon India most likely will end up the runaway "leader" in this nightmare ...
Bolsonaro seems to be doing his best to get Brazil into contention. Is the “leader” based on total deaths or on per capita deaths?
   3133. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 28, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5934445)
I'd go with per capita. I'm not much on compilers.
   3134. Karl from NY Posted: March 28, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5934446)
The U.S. is doing better than most of the countries that have significant interaction with China and roughly comparable health care. Just in Western Europe, the U.S has a lower per capita death rate than Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, U.K., Sweden, Denmark, Portugal & Austria.

Two counterpoints to this. One, most of Europe had a 7-10 day head start on the US. Two, that's cherry picking, by calling out the specific worst and most urbanized European areas compared to all of the US. That cherry picking can easily be done in the opposite direction: NY, NJ, SF, WA state have a higher per capita death rate than Europe as a whole, since that factors in relatively less affected areas like Poland and Hungary.
   3135. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5934459)
I'd go with per capita. I'm not much on compilers.


Deaths Above Replacement?
   3136. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5934462)
One, most of Europe had a 7-10 day head start on the US.
That’s not entirely a matter of luck. The U.S. placed restrictions on China travel much earlier than Europe. Italy concedes it was far too slow, and admits they feared offending China or being perceived as ‘racist’. They even went so far as to have a “hug a Chinese person day” on February 1. With the E.U. open borders, things quickly got worse across the continent.
   3137. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5934464)
Deaths Above Replacement?


You joke, but isn't this exactly how it's going to be eventually measured - excess mortality regardless of "official" outcome? Ideally, you'd probably also want to adjust for age somehow, although "excess mortality" would do that at least somewhat via the baseline mortality rate.
   3138. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5934466)
That’s not entirely a matter of luck. The U.S. placed restrictions on China travel much earlier than Europe. Italy concedes it was far too slow, and admits they feared offending China or being perceived as ‘racist’. They even went so far as to have a “hug a Chinese person day” on February 1. With the E.U. open borders, things quickly got worse across the continent.


But the U.S. travel restrictions obviously didn't work to completely keep the virus out of the U.S. - which I'm not arguing is some kind of failure; in retrospect, it's pretty clear the virus was/will eventually hit pretty much every country that even slightly interacts with other countries. So, the only advantage of the quicker ban in the U.S. would have been if the U.S. had started the other stuff - social distancing, lockdowns, rolling out mass tests - at the same time as Europe, which would have given the U.S. a permanent one-week head start. But that didn't really happen so all the extra 7-10 days did was shift the U.S.'s curves to the left on the graph relative to Europe, but is there any reason to expect them to be flatter as a result?
   3139. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5934467)
if you need something to hang your hat on

"With the apex of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic expected to be in 14 to 21 days, 209 deaths related to the virus were reported in the last 24 hours.

The fatalities, reported at midday on Saturday, March 28 by Gov. Andrew Cuomo at a news briefing in Albany, brings the state's total to 728.

[ok, not that part.]

Amid the grim news, there were a few encouraging developments even as the number of confirmed cases continues to climb in the state.

The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations declined by 307 since Friday, March 27.

The number of patients admitted to ICU beds declined by 202 since Friday, March 27.

Cuomo said it's too early to say if this may indicate the rate of the spread may be stabilizing, even if temporarily, but is encouraging for now.

So too is news that the New York Department of Health gained federal approval to start a precedent-setting antibody test, to see if people have an immunity to the virus. This could mean employees could be cleared to return to workplaces earlier.

"It could be a big breakthrough," Cuomo said.
   3140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5934468)
889 reported deaths in Italy, 542 of which are Lombardy. That's almost 6000, or .06% of the entire population of Lombardy now reported (and potentially twice that, or even more, if you think these excess death totals will be more accurate in the final accounting). The official too is going to increase a lot before this first wave is over, and seems like at the very minimum it will double.

6643 new test results, and 2147 more cases, so around 32%. Still not likely that more than 25% of Lombardy is currently infected. Putting that all together and you are looking at a minimum IFR (mortality rate once infected) in Lombardy of close to 1%.

(All calculations are only as good as the data and assumptions, of course. So feel free to disagree.)
   3141. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: March 28, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5934470)
I despise Trump and I think his behavior in all this has been, in total, an embarrassment. But I don't think it's realistic to think that he singlehandedly stood in the way of a South Korea style attack on this infection. The experience of basically all the other Western democracies shows that we cannot assume that a competent executive would have done it.

Obviously there was a total debacle in the CDC with ramping up reliable testing, but it seems like a stretch to blame that on Trump rather than typical bureaucratic inefficiency. I'm not sure that if you gave Dr. Fauci dictatorial powers and an unlimited budget that he would have done what was needed to quash the outbreak on American soil.

This has been a great thread, but comments like "this is all Trump's fault" bring the level of conversation way down, and they inspire further ###-for-tat bullshit OT:P comments that derail everything for those of us that are totally uninterested in political posturing.
i don't think that's unfair; however, i would note that this would not have happened under a president jeb, either. so this is not about politics; it's about competence.


the last 4 years have seen an exodus of brainpower from federal agencies, and that includes positions related to infectious diseases.

given the outsized effect that aggressive early interventions can have on halting the spread of infectious diseases, and the failures of this country to enact such measures as soon as possible, it is irresponsible to ignore the role the current administration had in allowing this to take root.
   3142. BrianBrianson Posted: March 28, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5934473)
It is definitely far too early to make any kind of outcome based judgement of Trump vis-a-vis European leaders given neither place has peaked yet.
   3143. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5934476)
i don't think that's unfair; however, i would note that this would not have happened under a president jeb, either. so this is not about politics; it's about competence.


What does "this" refer to?

It is definitely far too early to make any kind of outcome based judgement of Trump vis-a-vis European leaders given neither place has peaked yet.


Agreed, and the most important and difficult decisions may be yet to come.
   3144. pikepredator Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5934485)
personally, i think this is going to get a lot worse, and it's going to stay that way for a lot longer than people realize.


I'm definitely becoming more and more convinced of this as the health care officials have been right about all of their other dire predictions, and back when there were 15 cases at the end of Feb our fearless leader was of the mindset that it was "About to go away". We are closing the barn door long after the horse escape, now the barn is on fire, and everything is trapped inside (if I may mix my metaphors).

Blaming NY for the Florida deaths is only the latest example of the failure to take resposibility.
   3145. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5934486)
the last 4 years have seen an exodus of brainpower from federal agencies, and that includes positions related to infectious diseases.
That’s another made-up statement, with no basis in fact. Dr. Fauci, who’s been around since the AIDS crisis, is still going strong. Sure some federal employees retired in the last 4 years, including some in healthcare fields, but that’s primarily because they became eligible and/or could afford to do so as the stronger economy boosted their Thrift Savings Plan accounts (the 401(k)-like part of the Federal Employees Retirement System).
   3146. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5934490)
Blaming NY for the Florida deaths is only the latest example of the failure to take resposibility.


Who is making this claim?
   3147. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5934497)
   3148. pikepredator Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5934500)
At the risk of dragging this into an OTP-quagmire which - as a lurker - I apologize if I am doing:

there’s a possibility that sometime today we’ll do a quarantine — short term, two weeks for New York, probably New Jersey and certain parts of Connecticut.”

He said that if such a move happened, it would be primarily a restriction on residents of those states traveling to other parts of the country. He later said that, if enacted, it would not affect truckers or trade.

He said that he had spoken to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and said there was a problem with people from New York traveling down to Florida: "We don't want that."

"This will be an enforceable quarantine, but hopefully we won’t need it," he said.


Cuomo was reportedly caught completely off-guard by the announcement, and said:

from a medical point of view I don't know what you would be accomplishing


The strategy here is clear. After all, I live in VT and we have people coming from NY/CT/NJ (and MA) to VT as well, but there's no mention of protecting my state. The specific reference to Florida is to lay the groundwork for blaming the forthcoming Florida disaster (fueled by that state's resistance to take action) on NY. More preferential treatment for a governors who is supportive, and a slap at someone who has pointed out the shortcomings of this admin.
   3149. Mefisto Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5934502)
i would note that this would not have happened under a president jeb


I'm not sure I'd use the guy responsible for Terri Schiavo as a role model for appropriate medical responses.
   3150. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5934503)
There are a lot of governors who have responded strongly and forcefully to the health crisis -- DeWine, Inslee, Hogan, Cuomo, Baker, to name five. There are others.

DeSantis is not one of them. His state has a large senior population. They're going to have a very, very rough time, unfortunately.
   3151. Mefisto Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5934504)
At the risk of dragging this into an OTP-quagmire which - as a lurker - I apologize if I am doing


Someone is trying to drag this into OTP, but it isn't you.
   3152. Mefisto Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5934505)
DeWine, Inslee, Hogan, Cuomo, Baker, to name five. There are others.


Cuomo has done well since he started taking action, but he was late to take action. I substitute Newsom.
   3153. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5934506)
Not just Florida - Rhode Island Police, Troops Stopping Incoming New Yorkers To Force Quarantine. It’s pretty clear that during public health emergencies, quarantine measures are legal, but those are normally restrictions on people leaving an area, or unnecessarily moving around within it, rather than entering, which is a bit more murky. Some jurisdictions, mostly islands I believe, are banning non-full time residents from entering at all, even those with homes on the island. I have some doubt that such measures - which go well beyond just requiring new arrivals to self-quarantine for 14 days - would be upheld for non-hotspots, but few are likely to be filing lawsuits during a pandemic.
   3154. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5934507)
The strategy here is clear. After all, I live in VT and we have people coming from NY/CT/NJ (and MA) to VT as well, but there's no mention of protecting my state. The specific reference to Florida is to lay the groundwork for blaming the forthcoming Florida disaster (fueled by that state's resistance to take action) on NY. More preferential treatment for a governors who is supportive, and a slap at someone who has pointed out the shortcomings of this admin.


From the top on down, this, sadly, angrily, unfortunately appears to be the set up: We did everything we could and we would have gotten away with it been fine if it weren't for those Blue state governors and those cowardly, fleeing "coasters" infecting real 'Muricans with the Kung Flu.

#### DeSantis ...though I'm cynical enough to imagine he's not going to get nearly enough #### for his disastrous decision making in what is going to happen in Florida.
   3155. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5934518)
#### DeSantis ...though I'm cynical enough to imagine he's not going to get nearly enough #### for his disastrous decision making in what is going to happen in Florida.


Well, it's going to be hard to hide that he kept the beaches wide open when other governors were shutting things down in their states.
   3156. bunyon Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:29 PM (#5934523)
This will be like all other recent political battles. Whoever's side you were on at the start is where you'll be at the end. I have my feelings, too, of course, but there is little convincing idiots.

Perhaps after sufficient blood letting, we'll all be a little more amenable to listening to others.
   3157. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5934524)
Well, it's going to be hard to hide that he kept the beaches wide open when other governors were shutting things down in their states.
His supporters will explain that away and/or incorporate it into their narrative as described in 3154. The concept of people changing their minds based on facts is seeming more and more quaint.
   3158. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5934525)
People changing their made-up minds based on the persuasiveness of facts isn't a thing that is dying in the social media age. It is a thing that has never existed.
   3159. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5934526)
the last 4 years have seen an exodus of brainpower from federal agencies, and that includes positions related to infectious diseases.

That’s another made-up statement, with no basis in fact. Dr. Fauci, who’s been around since the AIDS crisis, is still going strong. Sure some federal employees retired in the last 4 years, including some in healthcare fields, but that’s primarily because they became eligible and/or could afford to do so as the stronger economy boosted their Thrift Savings Plan accounts (the 401(k)-like part of the Federal Employees Retirement System).


My god that's an idiotic statement, completely contradicted by facts across the federal government.

Well, Ignore is my friend.
   3160. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5934527)
I hope my state wins the Hunger Games.
   3161. tshipman Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5934528)
Look, we need to go to a nationwide lockdown for two to three weeks TODAY.

If we do that, then we have a chance at not being shut down for 3 months. This is a failure in leadership every single day. You cannot beat this by going state by state, or enforcing travel restrictions against certain areas. Those are idiotic half-steps that won't be effective.

The only thing that has been shown to work is shelter in place, and for it to stop the nationwide spread, it needs to be EVERYWHERE. Every day this does not happen is a failure of leadership.
   3162. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5934529)
Every day this does not happen is a failure of leadership.


Yeah, ####### Obama.
   3163. Sunday silence Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:48 PM (#5934531)
It looks like Jim Edmonds has the virus although they are doing further testing.
   3164. . . . . . . Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5934532)
I live 3 blocks away from a major teaching hospital in Manhattan. Everything is peaceful, quiet, and work is quite busy. But the incessant drone of the ambulances is pretty creepy.
   3165. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5934533)
Are they using the sirens? Because at a certain point, they made a conscious decision not to use them in Italy.
   3166. bunyon Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5934535)
It looks like Jim Edmonds has the virus although they are doing further testing.

When that guy coughed, it was headed right for Edmonds.

He dove in front of it anyway.


(Too soon?)
   3167. Mefisto Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5934536)
I hope my state wins the Hunger Games.


There's a good chance it will if you volunteer as tribute. :)
   3168. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5934541)
This will be like all other recent political battles. Whoever's side you were on at the start is where you'll be at the end. I have my feelings, too, of course, but there is little convincing idiots.

Perhaps after sufficient blood letting, we'll all be a little more amenable to listening to others.
The concept of people changing their minds based on facts is seeming more and more quaint.
This is the poll you'll want to watch: Republicans' net satisfaction of the government's (i.e., Trump's) pandemic response. The line hasn't dropped much this month - but it *has* dropped.
   3169. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5934542)
that's a fascinating poll - and it's non-political data.

90 pct of Rs 65+ are 'mostly' or 'completely' satisfied, while only 66 pct of Rs aged 18-34 say the same.

'completely' is 46 pct for seniors and 27 pct for the young'uns.
   3170. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5934543)
Dispatch from a swing state: I spent 20 minutes in a local hardware store today, a place that is frequented by contractors, not where the little old ladies buy bird seed or potting soil, certainly a mostly pro-Trump staff and clientele. Overheard quite a bit of talk about coronavirus - the general opinion seemed to be that (1) it's best to be careful but (2) it's not a huge deal and it'll all blow over sooner rather than later. No talk of conspiratorial media or anything like that, but I don't think these folks are paying close enough to attention to demerit Trump for his handling of the crisis. At least so far. It hasn't gotten ugly here yet.
   3171. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5934544)
90 pct of Rs 65+ are 'mostly' or 'completely' satisfied, while only 66 pct of Rs aged 18-34 say the same.


Not sure which is the more terrifying part ...
   3172. . . . . . . Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5934545)
Are they using the sirens? Because at a certain point, they made a conscious decision not to use them in Italy.


Yep. There’s still a fair amount of cars on the road by a normal standard - just not by NYC standards.

It’s still so much quieter than normal that when the sirens aren’t going you hear tons of migrating songbirds singing. Really lovely.
   3173. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5934547)
Interesting, thanks. Songbirds *would* be lovely about now ... things haven't really changed on the streets where I live.

Kids are still playing (and screeching) in the street (good god, did we raise such a racket when we were young ... GET OFF MY LAWN!).
   3174. puck Posted: March 28, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5934550)
good god, did we raise such a racket when we were young ... GET OFF MY LAWN!


Yeah, I apologize to all my old neighbors; my brothers and I were constantly dribbling a basketball or playing football in the street or some such thing.

That quote I made back on March 1 (about it seeing unrealistic that everyone everywhere was going to cancel public events) seems so so long ago. It also seems like long ago that everyone did cancel everything.

   3175. puck Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5934551)
Is there much news out of places like Brazil, the Phillipines (Manila), large African cities?
   3176. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:21 PM (#5934560)
new Twitter meme is that whatever song was No. 1 on your 12th birthday is your "pandemic song."

some of the early responses are suspicious, but somehow I laughed ruefully:

Bridge Over Troubled Water
Hello/Goodbye
The Tide Is High
I Hear A Symphony
Eve of Destruction
Take Good Care Of My Baby
Stayin' Alive
The Way We Were
Joy To The World
I Wanna Hold Your Hand
Just My Imagination
Return To Sender

let's see, mine is..... holy crap - "Touch Me In The Morning" by Diana Ross

if anyone wants to play....
   3177. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5934561)

I'll play... mine is "Silly Love Songs". Which I actually like. (ducks)
   3178. mathesond Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5934563)
I get "I Love Rock and Roll". I think I even got the album as a birthday gift!
   3179. Laser Man Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5934565)
That’s not entirely a matter of luck. The U.S. placed restrictions on China travel much earlier than Europe. Italy concedes it was far too slow, and admits they feared offending China or being perceived as ‘racist’.
Just want to point out for the record that Italy banned all flights from China on January 31. The U.S. enacted restrictions four days later, on February 4, which restricted foreign citizens and screened (but not tested) U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Flights between the U.S. and China continued for many more weeks; Italy has had a complete ban.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2020/03/12/italy-banned-flights-from-china-before-americait-didnt-work/#4c518365481b
   3180. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5934571)
"Tonight's the Night," Rod Stewart. I can live with that.
   3181. Greg Pope Posted: March 28, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5934572)
For me, it's "Billie Jean". Which I don't really like. A month and a half before, it was "Africa", which spent about 20 years as my favorite song of all time (primarily due to nostalgia, but still).

I'm going to pick that one.
   3182. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:00 PM (#5934573)
new Twitter meme is that whatever song was No. 1 on your 12th birthday is your "pandemic song."

Mine is "Candle in the Wind (1997)." Which is... well, funereal.
   3183. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5934574)
This is the poll you'll want to watch: Republicans' net satisfaction of the government's (i.e., Trump's) pandemic response. The line hasn't dropped much this month - but it *has* dropped.
I would think Trump’s Job Approval On Handling The Corona Virus would be the most important poll. 50.6% Approve, 44.9% Disapprove in the RCP average at the moment. That’s not just Republicans.
   3184. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5934575)
"Africa", which spent about 20 years as my favorite song of all time


This deserves its own thread. Which 20 years? Are you aware that there was a hipster revival of interest in this song, which was capped (and probably ended) when Weezer recorded a totally insipid cover? Did you know that "Rosanna" was stuck in my head for about 18 months recently, and it didn't even bother me?
   3185. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5934576)
If I were a week younger, "Candle in the Wind" would be mine, too. Instead, it's "Truly, Madly, Deeply" by Savage Garden. Boring.
   3186. Snowboy Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5934577)
Look, we need to go to a nationwide lockdown for two to three weeks TODAY.

If we do that, then we have a chance at not being shut down for 3 months. This is a failure in leadership every single day. You cannot beat this by going state by state, or enforcing travel restrictions against certain areas. Those are idiotic half-steps that won't be effective.

The only thing that has been shown to work is shelter in place, and for it to stop the nationwide spread, it needs to be EVERYWHERE. Every day this does not happen is a failure of leadership.


Never in my life, or my study of history, have I ever seen or heard of the Canada-US border being closed (well, it's not closed, but severely restricted. Announcing "no non-essential travel across the border" and Air Canada cancelling basically all flight to USA, it's a singular event.) Now there is talk of closing provincial borders (I don't even know how to do that? There is rarely even a sign on the highway you've entered a new province, let alone a physical checkpoint?)

And there is now a conundrum within the province of Ontario: an hour or two north of Toronto is an area colloquially called "Cottage Country" where rich folks have secondary residences, summer cabins. The permanent residents of those areas and the provincial government are now advising people to NOT go their secondary residences, lest they bring the virus with them from the big cities, and overwhelm the medical (and other) facilities of the small towns.

Link
   3187. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:12 PM (#5934579)
My song is "My Sweet Lord". Although there are more appropriate words than "sweet".
   3188. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5934580)
Similar stories in my neck of the woods, which has many second homes. An island in the Penobscot Bay, North Haven, is attempting to bar all non-natives from the island. Not clear if they're allowed to do so.
Lots of threats of legal action.

Norway has banned city people from decamping to their country homes.
   3189. PreservedFish Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5934581)
Never in my life, or my study of history, have I ever seen or heard of the Canada-US border being closed

War of 1812?
   3190. Tony S Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:15 PM (#5934582)
Did you know that "Rosanna" was stuck in my head for about 18 months recently, and it didn't even bother me?


Being home all the time I have the phone on my desk next to me, set to vibrate. Whenever I get a Slack or WhatsApp message the hum sounds exactly like the first two chords of Alice Cooper's "No More Mr. Nice Guy", which is now permanently etched in my head.
   3191. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:24 PM (#5934584)
Long and Winding Road; I can live with it
   3192. Hot Wheeling American Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:40 PM (#5934587)
Just want to point out for the record that Italy banned all flights from China on January 31. The U.S. enacted restrictions four days later, on February 4, which restricted foreign citizens and screened (but not tested) U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Flights between the U.S. and China continued for many more weeks; Italy has had a complete ban.

Jeez...how can Da Yankee Clapper show his electronic face around here again after being shown to have spread lies about the global pandemic?
   3193. Snowboy Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5934588)
War of 1812?


Haha, yes, other than THAT skirmish.
(I sometimes mutter "you're welcome" as we sit at a game after The Star-Spangled Banner.)
   3194. Hot Wheeling American Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5934591)
For ya boy...Can’t Help Falling in Love from the hit motion picture Sliver.
   3195. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5934592)
Hmmmm ... Looks like "Every Breath You Take"
Creepy, but I'll take it ...
   3196. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:47 PM (#5934594)
Yascha Mounk on The Atlantic website

"[F]or the first time in living memory, the German embassy has now asked citizens who are currently in the United States to return home as quickly as possible. Rather than trusting the most powerful nation on Earth to protect its residents against the coronavirus pandemic, Germany has apparently decided that its citizens are not safe here.

"That tells you a lot about just how badly America is handling the pandemic. For those like me, who were born and raised in Germany but have chosen to make a home for ourselves here in the United States, it also raises a set of rather more personal questions."

   3197. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:48 PM (#5934596)
My 12th birthday song is a positive one, showing the recovery side of things: My Boyfriend's Back.

It was somewhat overshadowed on that day by Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech.
   3198. Greg K Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:49 PM (#5934597)
Montell Jordan's classic "This is How We Do It".
   3199. Jay Z Posted: March 28, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5934598)
12th Birthday song? I got "Dreams" by FM.

For 1977, when I coulda had:

You Make Me Feel Like Dancing - Leo Sayer
Torn Between Two Lovers - Mary MacGregor
Don't Give Up On Us - David Soul
Southern Nights - Glen Campbell
When I Need You - Leo Sayer
Undercover Angel - Alan O'Day
Da Doo Ron Ron - Shaun Cassidy
Looks Like We Made It - Barry Manilow
Star Wars Theme/Cantina Band - Meco
... and for 10 ####### weeks... You Light Up My Life - Debby Boone.

Dreams is an excellent result.
   3200. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2020 at 08:01 PM (#5934600)
there is now a conundrum within the province of Ontario: an hour or two north of Toronto is an area colloquially called "Cottage Country" where rich folks have secondary residences, summer cabins. The permanent residents of those areas and the provincial government are now advising people to NOT go their secondary residences, lest they bring the virus with them from the big cities, and overwhelm the medical (and other) facilities of the small towns.

we're way ahead of you in NY - zillionaires retreating from NYC to their 'cottages' in the Hamptons - and NJ - zillionaires retreating from North Jersey to The Shore.

same exact concerns
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