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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   3601. PreservedFish Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5935295)
Flipped: I was still a chef in California when the state ruled that all cooks serving ready-to-eat food needed to wear gloves. Chefs were angry and openly defiant. The sushi chefs seemed particularly aggrieved and insulted. They overturned the rule quickly, because it was a huge pain in the butt and didn't actually make things much safer. You'd need to change gloves a billion times to make a real difference. I understand why, like, Subway and Chipotle make their workers change gloves every time, but it's not really workable for a regular restaurant. Maybe the salad station.
   3602. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5935296)
Coronavirus deaths in the US will likely surpass 9/11 deaths today.


Yep, we're now past 6 Epstein Units and heading for 7 or 8 by the end of today.


How many is that in Yankee Stadium premium seating capacities?
   3603. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5935297)
Some folks are using plastic bags on their hands when pumping gas or engaging in similar tasks - easier to get on & off than disposable gloves and more available. Regular gloves wouldn’t seem like a good option unless you are constantly changing/cleaning them, which may not be that easy.
   3604. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5935298)
I carry a tube of disinfecting wipes in my car. When I pumped gas, I wiped down the touch screen, and held the pump handle with the wipe. When I was done, I wiped my hands, threw it away, and used santizer when I got in the car. If I get it from touching surfaces, we are all doomed.
   3605. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5935299)
"Patrick McEnroe has confirmed he tested positive for coronavirus. The veteran ESPN tennis commentator took to Twitter on Tuesday to discuss his symptoms and life under quarantine.

McEnroe says he's been under quarantine in his basement for 11 days after he showed minor symptoms of the virus. He went to a drive-thru testing center in New York and got his results back Tuesday morning.

McEnroe reiterated that his symptoms have passed and he feels fine and that his family has been quarantined for "well over" two weeks now."
   3606. Tony S Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5935300)
I carry a tube of disinfecting wipes in my car. When I pumped gas, I wiped down the touch screen, and held the pump handle with the wipe. When I was done, I wiped my hands, threw it away, and used santizer when I got in the car. If I get it from touching surfaces, we are all doomed.


I've been driving so little I haven't had to get gas in three weeks...
   3607. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5935302)
Well, when I said get, I meant got. I have filled up once in the last 3 weeks.
   3608. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 31, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5935303)
Kind of sucks not to be driving more with gas so cheap
   3609. BrianBrianson Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5935307)
Wait, you guys are going out?

Naw, just joshin'. I've twice walked the 600 yards to the grocery store over the last 15 days. Each way.
   3610. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5935308)
Not every idea works - Astrophysicist Gets Magnets Stuck Up His Nose Attempting To Make Face-Touching Alarm:
An Australian astrophysicist has been admitted to hospital after getting four magnets stuck up his nose in an attempt to invent a device that stops people touching their faces during the coronavirus outbreak. Dr Daniel Reardon, a research fellow at a Melbourne university, was building a necklace that sounds an alarm on facial contact, when the mishap occurred on Thursday night.
. . .
“I had a part that detects magnetic fields. I thought that if I built a circuit that could detect the magnetic field, and we wore magnets on our wrists, then it could set off an alarm if you brought it too close to your face. A bit of boredom in isolation made me think of that.” . . . Reardon said he placed two magnets inside his nostrils, and two on the outside. When he removed the magnets from the outside of his nose, the two inside stuck together. Unfortunately, the researcher then attempted to use his remaining magnets to remove them.

“At this point, my partner who works at a hospital was laughing at me,” he said. “I was trying to pull them out but there is a ridge at the bottom of my nose you can’t get past. “After struggling for 20 minutes, I decided to Google the problem and found an article about an 11-year-old boy who had the same problem. The solution in that was more magnets. To put on the outside to offset the pull from the ones inside.

“As I was pulling downwards to try and remove the magnets, they clipped on to each other and I lost my grip. And those two magnets ended up in my left nostril while the other one was in my right. At this point I ran out of magnets.” . . . At the hospital, a team of two doctors applied an anaesthetic spray and manually removed the magnets from Reardon’s nose.
Might work if you just wore a magnetic helmet, along with the magnetic wristbands, eh?
   3611. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5935309)
Hell, I'm still driving on a tank I filled up in probably the fall of 2018, thanks to having to resuscitate my '96 Maxima following the apparent theft 3/7 of my '18 Versa. (I'm shocked that the gas didn't go bad in the 17 or so months the car sat up, but apparently the fact that it was pretty much filled to the brim saved me.)
   3612. Ron J Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5935310)
#3608. Now is the time to fill the basement with cheap gas. Get ahead of those suckers hoarding TP when we descend into a barter economy.
   3613. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5935313)
“As I was pulling downwards to try and remove the magnets, they clipped on to each other and I lost my grip. And those two magnets ended up in my left nostril while the other one was in my right. At this point I ran out of magnets.”
It happens. That's why you gotta have enough backup magnets.
   3614. Zach Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5935315)
"End of the Road" -- Boyz II Men.

The Wikipedia page gushes pretty hard about this one, so I'm guessing that people like it as much as they ever did. Pretty forgettable in my book, though.

If I was born one month earlier, it would have been "Baby Got Back" by Sir Mixalot. A borderline novelty song, but boy has it ever held its audience.
   3615. McCoy Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5935318)
Not a big glove person and have never been a big germophobe. Back when I was a teenager I used to eat leftover steak on plates from customers as I was scraping the plates into the garbage. Never been worried about touching surfaces and getting sick.
   3616. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5935319)
It happens. That's why you gotta have enough backup magnets.
i have a similar issue every few weeks. i cannot recommend this enough.
   3617. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5935322)
Probably 10% of the vendors, etc. I've dealt with the last week or so have worn gloves. Till today, when I noticed a mask on the woman in the vehicle next to me was picking up a package from the UPS Store I'd driven to for the same reason, the only masked individual I'd noticed was the counter lady at the Chinese takeout place nearest me. Which has been closed for probably a week & a half now.

Otherwise, pretty much the only precautions I've been taking are ... geez, I dunno. I haven't licked any doorknobs or other surfaces.
   3618. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 31, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5935323)
Yep, we're now past 6 Epstein Units and heading for 7 or 8 by the end of today.


Epstein admitted that he made a grievous error and should have multiplied his U.S. estimate by 10, giving him estimates of 5,000 U.S. deaths and 50,000 worldwide. It appears that we are perhaps two days away from reaching both of these (although realistically, between probable under-counting from Italy, China, and Iran, we're probably already past the latter number). I'd be curious to see if the final world death totals would humble Epstein if I gave a rat's ass about him.
   3619. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5935324)
I haven't licked any doorknobs or other surfaces.
yeah, i've had to make similar sacrifices in the last few days.
   3620. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5935325)
I'd be curious to see if the final world death totals would humble Epstein
Magic 8 ball says...not likely.
   3621. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5935326)
Epstein admitted that he made a grievous error and should have multiplied his U.S. estimate by 10, giving him estimates of 5,000 U.S. deaths and 50,000 worldwide. It appears that we are perhaps two days away from reaching both of these (although realistically, between probable under-counting from Italy, China, and Iran, we're probably already past the latter number). I'd be curious to see if the final world death totals would humble Epstein if I gave a rat's ass about him.

Given we're counting these deaths based on hospital reports and not like epidemiologists do, we're probably past both numbers already.
   3622. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5935327)
The overall death rate for this seems to be going up. Per World-o-meters (they update regularly so the numbers I quote here might have changed by the time you click the link), the cumulative numbers are 41,983 deaths out of 853,127 confirmed cases, which is 4.9%. But the new numbers for today are 4,215 deaths out of 68,468 confirmed cases, which is 6.2%. I assume this means that the spread of the virus is out-pacing the availability of testing. But it also seems to me to suggest that earlier guesses that the "true" death rate might be much lower - perhaps as low as 0.5% - seem unlikely. South Korea, for example, which I was under the impression is pretty much the model for having the best handle on actual cases is showing an overall mortality rate now of 162 out of 9,786, or 1.66% and even their new deaths (4) are a higher percentage of their new cases (125 - so 3.2%).

This all seems very worrisome to me. Or are the new case data just complete junk at this point and should be ignored entirely?
   3623. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5935329)
I'd be curious to see if the final world death totals would humble Epstein
Magic 8 ball says...not likely.


Give the man a break...

He's got a bet with himself to get his google search trends ranking beyond Jeffrey by summer. If it weren't for Q - an unexpected variable his model could not account for so it just shows your intellectual ineptitude and stupidity to ask about it when he clearly implied that it was exactly the sort of caveat that anyone with half a brain would have understood because it would be on your resume - he'd have won it already.

   3624. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5935330)
I was never any sort of germophobe before, and I don't expect to be one when this is all over, but I've been a bit paranoid about infecting my older neighbors (I live in a building with a decent number of old people).

“ Siegel said that gloves are not necessarily the right answer.
"You can't change them enough to make a difference so I vote 'no' on that one. Yes, on the continued hand-washing."


I have a few pairs of regular (non-disposable) gloves I wear, and I only leave the apartment once every few days, so I'm basically wearing each pair once per week. Based on my understanding of how long this virus survives on surfaces, I should be ok.

YMMV -- if you are already doing all the things you're supposed to be doing (washing hands, not touching face, etc.) then I'm not sure the gloves provide an incremental benefit. But the main positive for me is while I might forget to wash my hands immediately upon getting home (although this hasn't happened yet), I won't forget to take the gloves off.
   3625. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5935331)
I do wear gloves outside my house, but it's to serve as a constant reminder not to touch my face. I'm under no illusion gloves don't carry and transfer germs just as efficiently as my hands do.
   3626. Zach Posted: March 31, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5935333)
- i can't begin to understand how a point, which is supposed to be one dimensional, which i don't how even exists, is actually a string, which can't be one dimensional. sounds like the blind men and the elephant

First: a point is actually zero dimensional. It has neither length, nor width, nor depth.

A string is actually a good metaphor for how something three dimensional can act like something that only has one dimension. You would have to bend a string pretty abruptly before its three dimensional nature became obvious. If you're just wiggling a jump rope and watching the waves move along, you only need a one dimensional model to explain how the waves move. It's really three dimensional, but two of the dimensions don't matter.

Regarding string *theory* -- it's a cool name, but in practice it's been an unproductive boondoggle. Lots of people have put lots of hard work into it and never gotten anything out that was worth more than what they put in.

The original idea was that it might make sense of the large zoo of seemingly fundamental particles -- particles that don't seem to be made of smaller particles. The idea was that you might be able to relate them to one another as a series of vibrations on a "string" -- just like you can relate a series of that are played on the same guitar string to one another. If you can describe the density, length, and tension of a guitar string, you can in principle describe all the notes that the string is capable of playing. So by analogy, if you could describe the properties of your "string" you could derive the properties of every fundamental particle.

The problem is -- you can't. At least, nobody has, and nobody thinks there are any prospects for doing it in the forseeable future. The first problem is that fundamental particles actually differ from each other in a number of ways. If you want to describe a string that could vibrate in enough different ways to cover all of them, you need many more dimensions than have been shown to exist. So now you're saying that space isn't three dimensional, it's blah-dimensional, where blah is some large number. Even though all the experiments say that space really is three dimensional. Worse, if you stipulate that blah dimensions actually exist, you don't end up with one theory that explains what we see, you get umpteen bajillion theories that explain the particles we see, but predict different particles that we don't see. And what if our hypothetical entity isn't a string? What if it's more like a drumhead? And what if...

The human side of the problem is that people have to learn so much painful math to get to the point where it all hangs up that they're really closer to mathematicians than physicists. And mathematicians actually like that stuff, and don't really care whether it explains anything about our universe or not. So what you end up with is a bunch of physicists who don't like it but aren't really qualified to say anything about it and a few almost mathematicians who do like it but don't particularly care about the subjects that the entire rest of the field does care about, and a cool name.

But it is a very cool name.
   3627. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:12 PM (#5935340)
one sec...
   3628. Zach Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5935342)
How to tell if we're beating COVID-19

An interesting visualization. It looks like it grows at almost exactly the same rate in every country, until it stops. So whether you think any particular leader is a genius or a dunce, so far nothing has made a difference short of stopping all transmission by force majeure.
   3629. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5935343)
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

The captain of a nuclear aircraft carrier with more than 100 sailors infected with the coronavirus pleaded Monday with U.S. Navy officials for resources to allow isolation of his entire crew and avoid possible deaths in a situation he described as quickly deteriorating.

The unusual plea from Capt. Brett Crozier, a Santa Rosa native, came in a letter obtained exclusively by The Chronicle and confirmed by a senior officer on board the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following a COVID-19 outbreak among the crew of more than 4,000 less than a week ago.

“This will require a political solution but it is the right thing to do,” Crozier wrote. “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors.”


Link
   3630. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:28 PM (#5935346)
So Fauci apparently said a week ago that 1 in 1000 New Yorkers were infected, and Birx said the same thing only 6 days ago. I find that extremely hard to believe, even a week ago. With 20 million people, that means there were only 20,000 infected a week ago, at a time when 25,000+ people had officially already been confirmed infected.

Not only that, even if the number of infected has at most doubled since 6 days ago under the shutdown, the current 1500 dead in NY would be close to 4% mortality already, and growing greater every day.

The 1/1000 gives people a false sense of security. The real number was probably 10 to 20 times higher than that.
   3631. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5935347)
An interesting visualization. It looks like it grows at almost exactly the same rate in every country, until it stops. So whether you think any particular leader is a genius or a dunce, so far nothing has made a difference short of stopping all transmission by force majeure.
This is what Sweden actually said.

One point about that, though, is that every country so far has taken great pains, one way or another, to stop the growth rate, and the growth rate tended to stop or at least slow down soon after. If you make no attempt, what happens? Most likely you end up like small towns where 1% or more of the population dies.
   3632. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5935351)
as God is my witness, Trump just said:

"People were saying, 'Just ride it out, it's like the flu.' It's not like the flu. This is vicious."
   3633. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5935354)
From TFA linked in 3629:

Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan Administration, said that “it is very unusual” for a ship captain — someone who is typically on a career track to become an admiral — to write such a letter.

“It shows that this is a person who is putting the welfare of his sailors ahead of his career,” said Korb, a retired Navy captain who is now a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress think tank.
I will be the first to admit I have zero experience with the military mindset and probably just don’t “get it” at all...but why would the captain’s career possibly be at risk here?
   3634. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5935357)
as God is my witness, Trump just said:

"People were saying, 'Just ride it out, it's like the flu.' It's not like the flu. This is vicious."

Hey, he's not lying (in that particular little snippet). He is just intentionally withholding critical information, that he was one of the people saying it. And saying it loudest.
   3635. Tony S Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5935358)
Hey, he's not lying (in that particular little snippet). He is just intentionally withholding critical information, that he was one of the people saying it. And saying it loudest.


And his cult won't notice it for a second.
   3636. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 31, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5935359)
He is just intentionally withholding critical information, that he was one of the people saying it. And saying it loudest.
And will no doubt continue to withhold this information despite being confronted with video evidence of him saying exactly that. Quite loudly.
   3637. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5935363)
I will be the first to admit I have zero experience with the military mindset and probably just don’t “get it” at all...but why would the captain’s career possibly be at risk here?
Because we’re reading about the letter on the internet.

Promotions above O-6 are political and this makes his superiors look bad.

He’s also telling China that they successfully disabled a capital ship without even trying.
   3638. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5935364)
From WaPo.

During a phone call on Saturday, DeSantis complained about people with the coronavirus traveling from New York to Florida. Minutes later, Trump publicly said he was considering a quarantine for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He ultimately decided against it.
...

One White House official said Trump is attuned to the electoral importance of Florida in November, giving added weight to the arguments DeSantis has made to the administration that his state’s economy should reopen as soon as possible.

"The president knows Florida is so important for his reelection so when DeSantis says that, it means a lot,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be frank. “He pays close attention to what Florida wants."
   3639. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:17 PM (#5935365)
in the press conference just now, a reporter basically said that DeSantis is now passing the buck - that if Trump/CDC tell him he must do a statewide shutdown, he will comply.

Trump just said what a great Governor DeSantis is and how there are two reasonable approaches there.

meanwhile, if Florida thinks they can win a travel war with NYC/NJ/CT, they are delusional.

they need 'us' more than we need them.

(not that I can't appreciate that a less-infected state will be reluctant to welcome those coming from a war zone.)
   3640. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:35 PM (#5935367)
USA TODAY Sports
@usatodaysports
Longtime NFL agent Buddy Baker has lost his not one but both of his parents to COVID-19, he announced Tuesday afternoon.

“Just a few weeks ago, they were in perfect health.”

................

[Baker added that they died six minutes apart.]
   3641. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5935368)
Up until now, I have been giving DeSantis high marks in his governorship (you can look it up). But on this he gets an F--
   3642. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5935369)
. . . if Florida thinks they can win a travel war with NYC/NJ/CT, they are delusional.

they need 'us' more than we need them.
If numerous Governors are restricting non-essential travel, or begging people not to do so, why shouldn’t those in NYC/NJ/CT stay put? Seems like a double standard here.
   3643. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 31, 2020 at 07:58 PM (#5935371)
If numerous Governors are restricting non-essential travel, or begging people not to do so, why shouldn’t those in NYC/NJ/CT stay put? Seems like a double standard here.


I'm having trouble parsing this. Too many conflicting negatives.
   3644. Eric L Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:17 PM (#5935374)
It’s not often I agree with clapper but staying put is the thing to do.
   3645. Karl from NY Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5935377)
The overall death rate for this seems to be going up. ... I assume this means that the spread of the virus is out-pacing the availability of testing.

This is correct. As each new jurisdiction wakes up and starts testing, they test only the most severely symptomatic cases first, which gives both more positives-per-test and deaths-per-positive.

New Jersey is the leading example here. By overall percentage infected, it's been maybe just a couple days behind New York, but didn't start ramping up tests to thousands per day until over a week later.
   3646. Nasty Nate Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5935379)
A travel war? No one is traveling anywhere.
   3647. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5935380)
It's not a travel war, it's a blame war.
   3648. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5935381)
yeah, nobody should be going anywhere.
   3649. PreservedFish Posted: March 31, 2020 at 09:08 PM (#5935384)
I'd like to walk through Manhattan - or Paris, or Rome, or wherever - with quiet streets.
   3650. Tin Angel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 09:45 PM (#5935389)
I'd like to walk through Manhattan - or Paris, or Rome, or wherever - with quiet streets.


Bismarck ND would be cool too.
   3651. Howie Menckel Posted: March 31, 2020 at 09:54 PM (#5935390)
I visited the Atlantic City Boardwalk two weeks ago. if 'social distancing' was 20 feet instead of 6, still not even a challenge to comply. roughly one person per each city block. and COVID-19 still hasn't even hit nearly as hard in South Jersey.

but all the casinos there had to close (March 16), because they get so many visitors from all over.

it's so bittersweet. at first the emptiness is so depressing. I mean, there is a souvlaki stand that has a "WE NEVER CLOSE!!!" sign as part of its awning - and it, too, was closed.

but the worst part is also the best part, from both the Boardwalk to the rest of the city where I saw zero gatherings. at worst, two teenage residents together on their bikes.

that city absolutely cannot afford an outbreak, and God willing they may not get one.
   3652. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 31, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5935391)
Because we’re reading about the letter on the internet.

It was a letter to his superior officers, not a tweet.

Promotions above O-6 are political and this makes his superiors look bad.

He’s also telling China that they successfully disabled a capital ship without even trying.

I'm guessing they already knew that.

I get your overall point, but it hasn't been a secret that American security has been compromised by the weird politicization of the virus.
   3653. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 31, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5935393)
No one is traveling anywhere.
Escaping ‘diseased’ urban area for the countryside has been a thing since the Middle Ages, when folks were trying to dodge the Black Plague. Some who have second homes in ‘healthier’ areas, or who can afford to travel, are trying to relocate, although few take it this far:
In a scramble to escape the coronavirus, a couple drove more than 3,400 miles across Canada and then flew another 500 miles deep into the northern Yukon territory. Upon their arrival in the remote community of Old Crow, the visitors were swiftly ushered into self-isolation and eventually sent packing.
. . .
“They had sold everything that they had, drove across the country and jumped on a flight to our community. He said that they literally just picked it out on a map and figured it would be the safest place in Canada to weather a Covid-19 storm.”
I’d be more impressed if they had arrived in winter.
   3654. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: March 31, 2020 at 10:52 PM (#5935395)
It was a letter to his superior officers, not a tweet.
there are secure means of transmitting information to a superior. The fact that this “letter” was sent means that he already sent a message up through a secure channel and didn’t like the answer he received. Or someone in his chain released it to embarrass him, which is also not a good sign.

Even without the letter, though, he was probably done. As a Captain, he doesn’t get to say “I don’t take responsibility for anything”. He is responsible for the fact that a key piece of the Navy can’t leave port and that’s not a good OPR bullet.
   3655. Omineca Greg Posted: March 31, 2020 at 11:21 PM (#5935396)
I’d be more impressed if they had arrived in winter.


Overnight low in Old Crow tonight is forecast at -13 F.

Warming up to 12 F tomorrow during the day.

It's a weird story though. Tell me, is there anybody here who thinks you can go to an Arctic village of 220 people, unannounced, and just rent an apartment and get jobs? There are are no free market jobs (only a slight exaggeration) and even people who have lived there their whole life have a hard time getting housing. It's such a bad plan...I mean look at it. There's a no road access in Summer, and the Winter road isn't open to the public. I guess they could have tried their hand at bootlegging.
   3656. Eric L Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:46 AM (#5935399)
Looks better than Tuktoyatuk.
   3657. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:05 AM (#5935401)
Deaths in Bergamo province for March were counted/estimated (actually counted for about 60% of the region, by population, and estimated for the other 40%). 5400 people are estimated to have died in March this year. Since the average of the last 3 years is about 900, that's an excess of 4500 (0.40% of the entire population). Only 2060 of those have been officially attributed to coronavirus.

Their data is also broken down by city/town. I'm not sure if these individual cities/towns cover all areas officially surveyed or also the ones estimated.

If these numbers are right, pretty much the lowest possible mortality rate in Bergamo province is about 1.1%. That assumes 50% of the population has are already been infected and another 1500 of this portion will die. The number could still be quite a bit higher. Same caveats: older population and overburdened hospitals.


Perhaps less accurately, they then divided by 1.57%, a mortality rate they apparently got from NYU research (no idea how accurate it is as applied to Bergamo) and got a total infected number of 288,000, or 29% of the population. If that's right, it most likely represents the number infected as of 2 weeks or so ago now, so would likely be at least a little higher now. The hardest hit areas were close to 50% infected using that mortality rate.

   3658. BrianBrianson Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:07 AM (#5935402)
This all seems very worrisome to me. Or are the new case data just complete junk at this point and should be ignored entirely?


The fact that almost every country is following the same curve is a pretty good indication that the data has some element of fact underlying it. Undercounting almost certainly exists, but numbers aren't being made up whole cloth, by and large (exceptions may exist).

The one bent curve I'm pretty confident is correct is South Korea's, so I don't think the argument you're just going to have to lie back and take it is correct. Part of this is definitely speed - people want instant answers, but you need 2-3 weeks for it to start, and then another several days to actually see it; e.g., since we started lockdown in France a little over two weeks ago, our curve might start flattening today-ish, so you'll need to wait 'til perhaps lundi prochain to have enough flat curve to see it's changing. Italy does look like it's flattening out, but I'd say it's only been the last 4 days where you should be at all confident you're seeing it, so you need to think about whether there are reporting issues, noise issues, etc.
   3659. bobm Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:14 AM (#5935405)
[3656] Tuktoyaktuk
   3660. bobm Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:19 AM (#5935407)
[3657]

Bloomberg: Italy’s Mild Flu Season May Solve Mystery of Coronavirus Deaths

Low flu deaths increased pool of those vulnerable in epidemic

Before outbreak, flu mortality among elderly was below average
   3661. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:27 AM (#5935408)
So let me get this straight. Flu, which kills 10,000 people in an average year in Italy, is down 3% this year versus the average (or 300 fewer deaths). Over a 5 month flu season that's 50 deaths per month. Call it 55. Bergamo represents 1/5th of Italy's population, so we can attribute 1 of those excess 4500 deaths in March to the mild flu season.

Mystery solved.'



   3662. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:42 AM (#5935410)
Gah, Can't do math. (Also Bergamo is 1.1 million, or 1/55th of Italy)

Reading the article a little bit closer. They are actually saying that the average is 12,000 per average year in Italy, so about 218 per year in Bergamo (1/55 of Italy), or about 109 for half the average Bergamo flu season. Down 6% for 3 months (per the article, so about half the flu season) so an expected reduction of about 6.5 people, creating 6.5 extra easy targets for the coronavirus. Out of 4500 (so far). The plot thickens.
   3663. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 01, 2020 at 02:48 AM (#5935412)
Even without the letter, though, he was probably done. As a Captain, he doesn’t get to say “I don’t take responsibility for anything”. He is responsible for the fact that a key piece of the Navy can’t leave port and that’s not a good OPR bullet.
He’s supposed to take personal responsibility for a biological contagion?
   3664. Tin Angel Posted: April 01, 2020 at 03:11 AM (#5935414)
That's what Captain Jeets would do, so yeah.
   3665. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 01, 2020 at 05:58 AM (#5935418)
I know a few people who left NY. But they’re all self-quarantining wherever they went. One of them went to help her parents in FL through this, but she’s self-quarantining at an Airbnb for several weeks before going to their house.
   3666. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 01, 2020 at 06:17 AM (#5935420)
He’s supposed to take personal responsibility for a biological contagion?

That's what Captain Jeets would do, so yeah.

Is that what the gift baskets were for?
   3667. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 07:07 AM (#5935423)
My daily visit to Worldometers was not very enjoyable. The US may have set the record for deaths in a day - if not, we'll set it soon, and repeatedly shatter that new record in the coming weeks.

Big death totals in the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland. Germany is +100 three days in a row, which is not a lot yet, but may indicate that their charmed run is ending.
   3668. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 08:16 AM (#5935436)
Spain

3/19 1326
3/20 1720 +398 +30%
3/23 2182 +462 +27%
3/24 2696 +514 +24%
3/25 3434 +738 +27%
3/26 4089 +655 +19%
3/27 4858 +769 +19%
3/28 5690 +832 +17%
3/29 6528 +838 +15%
3/30 7340 +812 +12%
3/31 8189 +849 +12%
4/01 9053 +864 +11%

Madrid
Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
March 27     2412            322
March 28     2757            345
March 29     3082            325
March 30     3392            310
March 31     3603            215
April 01     3865            262


Spain/Madrid seems likely to have mostly leveled off, similar to Italy/Lombardy. Madrid may have leveled off while the rest of Spain is still growing slightly.

With almost 600 per million dead in Madrid (officially, real numbers likely to to be twice as high), and Spain at almost the same number dead per capita as Italy, it's past the point where people can point to Italy as a uniquely bad case. Spain does not have a young population relative to the world, but they are significantly younger than Italy.
   3669. Tony S Posted: April 01, 2020 at 08:20 AM (#5935437)
Have there been any reports yet of ventilators being denied patients in the US?

I ask because I saw this article.

The "surge" is NOW.
   3670. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 08:55 AM (#5935446)
NYC tracks cases deaths and hospitalizations daily, as well as some other stuff. Archive here.

As it was for the Netherlands, it appears cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are assigned to the actual day they took place, so the most recent dates are not complete.
   3671. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 09:07 AM (#5935447)
Another death from the Diamond Princess. Wikipedia has that as the 12th, Worldometer as the 11th. Either way, it's way more than the original 6 that was used for many earlier models. (The guests and crew were not a random sampling of any population, being older than average but likely more healthy than average for their ages).
   3672. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 01, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5935449)
[He is responsible for the fact that a key piece of the Navy can’t leave port and that’s not a good OPR bullet.


I understand the political side of things, but I will point out he specifically says in the letter that the ship could leave port and fight if it needed to.
   3673. Greg Pope Posted: April 01, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5935466)
Just catching up, and I wanted to comment on the gloves thing. I don't know about COVID-19, but viruses like cold and flu will only actually live on human skin for about 20 minutes. Whereas on plastic surfaces they can live for 24 hours. I don't know about latex gloves, but it seems to me like you might be letting the virus live longer on your fingers when you're wearing gloves. If you touch your face while wearing the gloves, or get it on your fingers when removing the gloves, it might actually make it worse.

I commented on that to one of my kids a few days ago when picking up food at a drive thru. Again, I don't know if my assumptions are true.
   3674. bunyon Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5935489)
If you touch your face with gloves, or don't wash your hands thoroughly after taking them off, you're doing it wrong.

Same with masks. They aren't armor and can be (often are) misused. I think this is a lot of why experts advise against their use. They know most people are going to #### it up.
   3675. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:37 AM (#5935495)
The expert consensus on the efficacy of masks appears to change week-by-week.
   3676. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5935502)
Whereas on plastic surfaces they can live for 24 hours.


With COVID-19, I've heard up to 72 hours on non-porous surfaces.
   3677. SoSH U at work Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5935503)
Copper, of course, is king. Only four hours. Everything else is 24 or more.

Copper is also the most antimicrobial surface.
   3678. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5935504)
My local hardware store has wrapped its door handles in copper.
   3679. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 01, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5935505)
The proper use of gloves involves changing them frequently. If you wear a pair of latex or nitrile gloves for an hour, you're doing it wrong. I've been going through a box every two days at work lately.

The biggest benefit of wearing a surgical mask might be keeping you from touching your nose and mouth. I saw a half dozen people with N95s last Saturday. Only one was wearing his correctly.
   3680. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:17 PM (#5935508)
3679--the CDC has a hand washing vid. Did they put out anything on how to wear masks or proper glove usage? Did a quick search and nada. Thanks
   3681. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5935509)
My understanding is that the gloves issue for everyday life is all but irrelevant anyway, since as far as the experts have yet been able to tell transmission via surface contact is extremely rare and 99% of cases are contracted from being too close to an infected person who is shedding germs with every breath, or in an enclosed space (a bus, a meeting room, an airplane, an apartment, etc) with one.
   3682. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5935513)
Concur with 3681. This NY doctor's video about the virus and protection seemed particularly good

"Dr. David Price is a critical care pulmonologist caring for COVID-19 patients all day in NYC at Weill Cornell Hospital. He has a lot of great information to share. In the last portion he answers some fantastic questions. It's almost an hour and a cuts out a bit, so be patient."
   3683. Swedish Chef Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5935514)
New cases increased to 4782 in Italy, new deaths down to 727.
   3684. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5935515)
Copper, of course, is king. Only four hours. Everything else is 24 or more.


Well, don't mention that over *there* ... I posted an article about copper and people treated me like I had three heads and was talking about pizza parlour basements ...
   3685. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5935516)
My understanding is that the gloves issue for everyday life is all but irrelevant anyway,

That's been my guess. I think the only way to get COVID from a box of Rice-a-Roni is for the shelf-stocker to hock a loogie on it and for you to scrape off the loogie, put it in an atomizer, and spray a fine loogy mist into your own face. Which, you know, I stopped doing about 3 weeks ago, so I'm good.
   3686. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5935519)
This wasn't the article, but it was similar

https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it
   3687. SoSH U at work Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5935520)
https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it


I've written about the subject pretty extensively. And I'm planning to write another in June given that it's also the best surface at virus killing.

It's pretty indefensible it isn't more common on touch surfaces in hospitals.
   3688. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5935522)


The biggest benefit of wearing a surgical mask might be keeping you from touching your nose and mouth. I saw a half dozen people with N95s last Saturday. Only one was wearing his correctly.


And if you wear it incorrectly, does it give like 75% of the protection? Or does it actually harm you?
   3689. Howie Menckel Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5935523)
incredible that this would qualify as "good news"

Nick Reisman
@NickReisman
·
4m
Cuomo says one projection by the Gates Foundation says 16,000 people in New York will die and 93,000 people nationally.
   3690. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5935524)
In my hometown, if you coated your door handle in copper, the handle would be gone the next morning.
   3691. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5935525)

In my hometown, if you coated your door handle in copper, the handle would be gone the next morning.


Then you wouldn't have to worry about getting infected from the handle anymore.


It's pretty indefensible it isn't more common on touch surfaces in hospitals.


There is a global shortage of copper, is probably one factor.
   3692. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5935527)
I think the only way to get COVID from a box of Rice-a-Roni is for the shelf-stocker to hock a loogie on it and for you to scrape off the loogie, put it in an atomizer, and spray a fine loogy mist into your own face.


Nah, it's probably enough for you to just stick the loogy up your own nose.
   3693. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5935528)
@SoSH

This was the article

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere


In 1852, physician Victor Burq visited a copper smelter in Paris's 3rd arrondissement, where they used heat and chemicals to extract the reddish-brown metal. It was a dirty and dangerous job. Burq found the facility to be "in poor condition," along with the housing and the hygiene of the smelters. Normally, their mortality rates were "pitiful," he observed.

Yet, the 200 employees who worked there had all been spared from cholera outbreaks that hit the city in 1832, 1849, and 1852. When Burq learned that 400 to 500 copper workers on the same street had also mysteriously dodged cholera, he concluded that something about their professions—and copper—had made them immune to the highly infectious disease. He launched a detailed investigation into other people who worked with copper, in Paris and cities around the world.
Advertisement

In the 1854 to 1855 cholera epidemic, Burq could not find any deaths of jewellers, goldsmiths, or boilermakers—all those who worked with copper. In people in the army, he found that musicians who played brass instruments (brass is partly copper) were also protected.

In the 1865 Paris epidemic, 6,176 people died of cholera, out of a population of 1,677,000 people—that’s 3.7 people out of every 1,000. But of the 30,000 who worked in different copper industries, only 45 died—an average of around 0.5 per 1,000.
   3694. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5935530)
I have a small copper saucepan. Maybe I'll start a habit of cradling it during idle moments.
   3695. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5935532)
And if you wear it incorrectly, does it give like 75% of the protection? Or does it actually harm you?


Unlike a simple surgical mask, an N95 is designed to provide respiratory protection to the wearer. It filters 95% of particles 0.3 microns or larger. It's basically a HEPA filter for your face. If you aren't wearing it right you will breathe around it instead of through it and it will provide little protection if any.
   3696. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5935533)
Cuomo says one projection by the Gates Foundation says 16,000 people in New York will die and 93,000 people nationally.
I don't really see how these numbers are possible unless we don't come out of lockdown until there is a vaccine (or some other major medical breakthrough that comes earlier but is just as effective).
   3697. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 01, 2020 at 12:59 PM (#5935535)
I have a small copper saucepan. Maybe I'll start a habit of cradling it during idle moments.


@SoSH ... see?
   3698. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5935538)
"Dr. David Price is a critical care pulmonologist caring for COVID-19 patients all day in NYC at Weill Cornell Hospital. He has a lot of great information to share. In the last portion he answers some fantastic questions. It's almost an hour and a cuts out a bit, so be patient."
Of course it's long - he probably wandered around adjusting his scrubs for 60 seconds between each sentence.
   3699. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5935541)
Italy +727, or +6%. Lombardy was +394, for 7593 total (+5.5%). Consistent with the plateaued peak.

Lots of test results came in today for Lombardy (6908), and only 23% positive. If those tests were all done recently (unclear) and were not selectively sampled somehow for negative tests (which is possible), it seems at most 20% of Lombardy can have been infected as of very recently.
   3700. PreservedFish Posted: April 01, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5935542)
#98 - Took me a second to find that joke.
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