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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   3801. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:56 AM (#5935737)

Western governments can't or won't enforce this.

I believe in Singapore and South Korea they've used apps on people's phones to track their location and who else they've come into close contact with. Then if someone tests positive for coronavirus they access the data and use that to aggressively contact trace. They say they won't access the data for any other purpose. I heard a story about a couple in Singapore who was told their daughter was a third-order exposure -- the mother of a girl in her class had taken a taxi with a driver who tested positive for coronavirus. And this couple was notified about their daughter potentially being exposed.

Could we do something like that here? I don't know. Very few people would trust the government with that data; but if a private company simply embedded the feature in a decent game, I bet millions of people would download it without giving it a second thought. Or have it just be a part of the next iOS rollout. Nobody reads those disclaimers anyway.
   3802. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:59 AM (#5935738)
Spain might catch Italy in (official) deaths per capita in a few days. Belgium and the Netherlands might pass them both in a couple weeks.

Hard to see the path forward from here and no one seems to even be bothering to talk about one. And there has to be one, because the shutdown as it is now is entirely unsustainable. It's either going to break in an organized, rational way or it is going to break is a disorganized, irrational way. But it is not sustainable.
People still seem to be hoping for a miracle. If we are serious about reducing transmission to near zero and keeping it there without extended lockdowns, we are going to need extreme surveillance, regular saturation testing of the populace, and excellent tracing and quarantine methods. We'll probably have to close the borders and quarantine any people coming in to the country for 2 weeks, like China does. We're going to need cooperation and buy-in from all parts of the country. And we'll probably have to build a wall. Around New Orleans.

The other option that no one is talking about is just building society back up slowly in such a way that you don't overwhelm hospitals (so society can function with a semblance of normality), but you don't otherwise try to prevent people from getting sick and dying. I'm starting to think that this will happen in the US and many places in Europe. The end point then is vaccine or herd immunity (or miracle cure). If you assume we start to get better at caring for people with the virus and hospitals that are not overloaded can treat people well, maybe you are looking at 0.5% mortality rate. If 50% of the country ends up getting it, that's 800,000 dead.

   3803. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:10 AM (#5935739)
Hard to see the path forward from here and no one seems to even be bothering to talk about one. And there has to be one, because the shutdown as it is now is entirely unsustainable.


I think quite a few people are talking about the path forward, but their message isn't very attractive for those who want the lockdown to end, and it's not dramatic enough for those hoping for apocalypse (in its meaning of 'complete transformation' rather than 'devastation', though there's a few hoping for the latter as a precondition of the former).

Here's the top article on The Atlantic, for example. The short version: Lots of money spent on scaling up the medical sector to where it should have been already for many countries, including the US. More central control of supplies and logistics to avoid breakdown. Slow relaxation of movement restrictions, but still 3-6 months of quite severe controls in the short-term, and probably another year of moderate controls after that. And then, constant guarding against mutations will be needed, particularly when flu season overlaps.

It's not a very attractive option and it's no wonder that we aren't shouting it from the rooftops, because we don't want people to give up and ignore the rules, and we need to buy time to adapt and see what else we learn through testing. Hard truths being less attractive than convenient falsehoods, after all . . .
   3804. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5935740)
The ultimate cause of all this was the reduction in hospital capacity and planning. And there's little question that hospital capacity was reduced so dramatically (hospital beds down from 1.5M to 900K between 1975 and today) in the name of "efficiency." And there's little question that the senior people who oversaw the gains in "efficiency" were very well-compensated for it, as were the shareholders in the stripped-down companies. But what they did was essentially slough off the social costs of a possible pandemic to society at large -- and now we're all paying for it.

So it's really just another example of privatized gains, socialized losses through massive, panicked public bailouts. Which is exactly the situation we found ourselves, under virtually identical circumstances, with Wall Street and the major banks less than 12 years ago.

With no fanfare or warning, hospital capacity turned out to be the Achilles heel of our entire way of life. No one really decided such a thing should be, no one really voted for such a thing, but it came to pass anyway. Where were the watchdogs? And not only where were the watchdogs -- where were the backup plans?
   3805. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:16 AM (#5935742)
It's not a very attractive option


It's not, but least bad is the best we're going to do. That doesn't play well on Twitter or the internet -- but it's the reality.

   3806. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:19 AM (#5935743)
Without venturing too far into OT:P, I've seen claims that hospitals are - in arguably their moment of greatest need - going bankrupt, because the elective surgeries that are profitable for them are being hugely scaled back in order to save lives, which doesn't make as much money. The disassociation of the profit motive from the wellbeing of their patients might be a leading indicator that the medical sector was not naturally adapted to scenarios other than the best case.
   3807. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5935745)
The pandemic backup plans that should have been at the ready with the shrinking of hospital capacity were the responsibility of government. The fact that we're simply winging this and there were apparently no plans to be consulted or tapped into in the event of emergency, is really inconceivable. What were we going to do if we were attacked, or if somehow a terrorist got a dirty bomb into the country or something?
   3808. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5935746)
You know who is going to get totally hammered in this? Higher Education. We were already in an enrollment decline and now? I'm a tenured professor and I'm officially worried about my job. Tenure doesn't help if your college ceases to exist.
   3809. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:29 AM (#5935747)
Public transportation is going to get totally hammered, too. We can forget about all the plans to move Americans from their cars into the cities and the buses and the subways and the monorails and the light rails and all the rest. Not happening. Public transportation is the Zanadu of disease transmission; you can likely attribute the vast majority of the higher NY state and city COVID numbers to population density and the NYC subway and Metro-North and LIRR. That's what separates us from California and its cars and that's why we've been creamed and California not so much.
   3810. Jay Z Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:34 AM (#5935748)
Here's the top article on The Atlantic, for example. The short version: Lots of money spent on scaling up the medical sector to where it should have been already for many countries, including the US. More central control of supplies and logistics to avoid breakdown. Slow relaxation of movement restrictions, but still 3-6 months of quite severe controls in the short-term, and probably another year of moderate controls after that. And then, constant guarding against mutations will be needed, particularly when flu season overlaps.


I have no problem with this. We are fighting a war and this is reality. Nothing is open right now anyway, if you want to get anything open you have to start small and limited.
   3811. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:37 AM (#5935749)
The Atlantic ideas are a sensible blueprint.
   3812. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:39 AM (#5935751)
With no fanfare or warning, hospital capacity turned out to be the Achilles heel of our entire way of life. No one really decided such a thing should be, no one really voted for such a thing, but it came to pass anyway. Where were the watchdogs? And not only where were the watchdogs -- where were the backup plans?

The entire health care system in this country is such an impenetrable Rube Goldberg machine that I don't think people could have chosen this outcome even if they wanted to. You find occasional examples of people sounding the alarm over this stuff over the years, but these are in the form of reports that then sit on shelves (or the Internet) and very little gets done about them.

The one thing you can't accuse the US of doing is not spending enough money on healthcare. So clearly resources have been allocated in a way that didn't anticipate this kind of crisis.

On the other hand, this is not a uniquely American issue -- even many countries with universal healthcare seem to be experiencing similar shortages of hospital beds, ventillators. So I don't think you can blame it all on the CEOs and shareholders.

One thing that this might have in common with the financial crisis is it didn't anticipate how interconnected the country and the world would become. In the financial crisis, you had all of these mortgage-backed securities which were highly rated because they were diversified by, among other things, geography. There was an assumption that even if you had a downturn in housing prices or employment in one part of the country it wouldn't hit everywhere. Of course, it did (although some areas were hit much harder than others).

Here, I wonder if there was an assumption that a localized outbreak could be dealt with by moving patients to other hospitals, bringing in doctors and equipment from other locations, etc., as a way to deal with lack of resources. There certainly didn't seem to be any anticipation of a nationwide epidemic spread by millions of people traveling internationally and domestically.
   3813. BrianBrianson Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:46 AM (#5935754)
You know who is going to get totally hammered in this? Higher Education. We were already in an enrollment decline and now? I'm a tenured professor and I'm officially worried about my job. Tenure doesn't help if your college ceases to exist.


Nothing is better for university enrollment than high unemployment rates.

SLACs stateside might get hammered, but the sector as a whole will clean up.
   3814. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:47 AM (#5935755)

On the other hand, this is not a uniquely American issue -- even many countries with universal healthcare seem to be experiencing similar shortages of hospital beds, ventillators. So I don't think you can blame it all on the CEOs and shareholders.


I've seen statistics that the US actually hss a larger number of ICU beds per thousand people than many other countries, because our system caters to those with money and ICU beds are expensive (and therefore, generate income).
   3815. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:04 AM (#5935757)
3813. I think that's sound logic for normal times, but this isn't just an economic downturn. It's a crisis of people being unable or unwilling to leave their homes. The short term carnage could be major for public and community colleges.
   3816. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:08 AM (#5935758)
The fact that we're simply winging this and there were apparently no plans to be consulted or tapped into in the event of emergency, is really inconceivable. What were we going to do if we were attacked, or if somehow a terrorist got a dirty bomb into the country or something?


There are plans, or were, or have been, and they're tested. Most recently, Event 201. October last year, which is sort of fortuitous, in a way.

But, of course, these events have no impact unless there is political will to act on the learnings, and there's seldom political will to act on the learnings unless pressure is put on politicians. 'Who do you want in a crisis?' covers this kind of event arguable with more importance than 'Who do you want to face down North Korea?' or 'Who do you want to answer the phone at 3am?' The long, slow, exhausting battles of resources, logistics, and willpower are far more demanding than the lightning judgement and moment of leadership.
   3817. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:32 AM (#5935762)
The long, slow, exhausting battles of resources, logistics, and willpower are far more demanding than the lightning judgement and moment of leadership.

I'm been thinking a lot about Tolstoy's criticism of the Great Man Theory lately. Tolstoy would say that Donald Trump (for instance) is the least important person in the world right now, that nobody else has less agency, that his every action is guided by unstoppable historical processes, that his only unique talent is the unique egoism to assume that he might actually be responsible for major events involving millions of people - same with any politician, general, billionaire. I think Tolstoy pushes the point too far, but it's an interesting framework with which to view current events.
   3818. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5935765)
After crushing the previous record last week with 3,341,000 unemployment claims (that number was revised up by 24,000) the number of new unemployment claims this past week doubled to 6,648,000. So, that's 10 million people newly unemployed in two weeks. Here's the data/press release in PDF form: here

A couple of comments. First, this is claims processed. The actual number of newly unemployed in this period is almost certainly greater than this - probably much greater than this - because state unemployment agencies simply aren't staffed to process this many claims (initial claims never broke one million during any week of the Great Recession).

Finally, BLS will release March employment data tomorrow. But these come with a huge caveat. BLS gets its numbers based on surveys, which are not taken over the course of the whole month, but are, instead, taken entirely within the week on which the 12th of the month falls (if they did surveys through the whole month, they couldn't release their data nearly so quickly). I don't know if BLS will try to make some kind of adjustment for this or give their own caveats when they release the data. But if they just use their usual methodology, the numbers reported tomorrow will exclude the 10 million+ newly unemployed of the past two weeks.
   3819. Eddo Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:48 AM (#5935768)
People still seem to be hoping for a miracle. If we are serious about reducing transmission to near zero and keeping it there without extended lockdowns, we are going to need extreme surveillance, regular saturation testing of the populace, and excellent tracing and quarantine methods. We'll probably have to close the borders and quarantine any people coming in to the country for 2 weeks, like China does. We're going to need cooperation and buy-in from all parts of the country. And we'll probably have to build a wall. Around New Orleans.

The other option that no one is talking about is just building society back up slowly in such a way that you don't overwhelm hospitals (so society can function with a semblance of normality), but you don't otherwise try to prevent people from getting sick and dying. I'm starting to think that this will happen in the US and many places in Europe. The end point then is vaccine or herd immunity (or miracle cure). If you assume we start to get better at caring for people with the virus and hospitals that are not overloaded can treat people well, maybe you are looking at 0.5% mortality rate. If 50% of the country ends up getting it, that's 800,000 dead.

AuntBea, since you seem to be very knowledgeable about this topic (what is your background, exactly? did I miss it at some point while lurking?), I ask this as a legitimate question: is zero transmission actually a good goal? Doesn't that just delay the inevitable, when we ultimately have to stop isolating, as a social species that eventually wants to start reproducing and acting human again?

I look at the South Korea figures, and I'm both impressed and concerned. Less than 1% of their population has tested positive; when they start relaxing restrictions, are they any different than a country that hadn't had an outbreak yet, that isn't doing anything about it?

(Also, it seems to me your second option is actually the one I hear being discussed more, what the ramping back up to "normal" could look like, but that could be because I'm an American displaced to the UK, so my new / commentary consumption is odd.)
   3820. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5935771)
But if they just use their usual methodology, the numbers reported tomorrow will exclude the 10 million+ newly unemployed of the past two weeks.


One critical data point in the unsustainability of all this.

I ask this as a legitimate question: is zero transmission actually a good goal?


Putting aside the medicine, herd immunity, and similar considerations -- zero transmission is an impossible goal. No new cases is an impossible goal. We are going to be living with cases and deaths for months and months, and maybe forever as we do with the flu. Maybe it's still a bit too early in the grieving process to come to terms with this, but soon we are going to have to. It's a tough mental jump to contemplate doing all this and not really accomplishing anything close to "victory," but it's a mental jump we are going to have to make.

   3821. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5935772)
actual headline from tampabay.com

Tom Brady has arrived in Tampa Bay, moving into Derek Jeter’s mansion
The 30K-foot waterfront home on Davis Islands will be the new residence for the Bucs quarterback.
   3822. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5935773)
The other option that no one is talking about is just building society back up slowly in such a way that you don't overwhelm hospitals (so society can function with a semblance of normality), but you don't otherwise try to prevent people from getting sick and dying.

it seems to me your second option is actually the one I hear being discussed more...



This has been an acknowledged goal of the "flatten the curve" theory from the beginning - that you cannot really prevent X00,000 people from dying from this thing, but you can at least prevent an additional many thousands from dying needlessly due to badly overburdened healthcare resources.

But nobody is yet explicitly saying that there's a certain amount of death that we will tolerate. It's a tough conversation to have. But it's something we will have to confront. The rather extreme social distancing we're doing now must significantly hinder the spread of the virus, and we could (in theory) keep it up until a vaccine is widely available, which I think would certainly save lives, not just from the secondary bucket of people that would die because the hospitals are incapable of helping them, but from the primary bucket of people that will die if they contract COVID even under the best of circumstances. But gosh, it's difficult to imagine keeping this dead-economy isolated life thing up for 18 months.
   3823. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5935774)

The other option that no one is talking about is just building society back up slowly in such a way that you don't overwhelm hospitals (so society can function with a semblance of normality), but you don't otherwise try to prevent people from getting sick and dying. I'm starting to think that this will happen in the US and many places in Europe. The end point then is vaccine or herd immunity (or miracle cure). If you assume we start to get better at caring for people with the virus and hospitals that are not overloaded can treat people well, maybe you are looking at 0.5% mortality rate. If 50% of the country ends up getting it, that's 800,000 dead.

This was what "Flatten the Curve" originally was intended to mean, right (not the exact numbers, but the concept? It wasn't supposed to eliminate the curve, but rather spread it out over a longer time frame in order to reduce the strain on the healthcare system and the mortality rate, and buy us time to improve treatment / prevention.
   3824. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:01 AM (#5935778)
that his only unique talent


I'm afraid he has plenty of "unique talent"s ... that kinda why we're all ###### ... ya know?
   3825. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5935780)
But gosh, it's difficult to imagine keeping this dead-economy isolated life thing up for 18 months.


I put the outer limit of sustainability at something like two more months. Eighteen is inconceivable; there will be nothing to "come back to" if it's that long. I can see mass gatherings like sports staying away for 18 more months, but not regular businesses and gatherings and activities.
   3826. Jay Z Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5935781)
yeah, re 3813, this isn't an economic issue. If this is really the "new normal" changes to society will be massive and will require decades.

Any return to status quo at this point will create super spreader events and result in overwhelming local resources. Perhaps a really limited loosening of certain retail could be done if group interactions are avoided. I am more worried about groups than I am the grocery store at this point. I am also not sure how much that will help.

We can talk all we want about how Western democracies will not do such and such, but this is basically a wartime situation. I have said it could be one to two million dead in USA, perhaps more. Reality has to sink in at some point that at least temporary changes in the way we do things have to happen.
   3827. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5935786)
SBB: Eighteen is inconceivable; there will be nothing to "come back to" if it's that long. I can see mass gatherings like sports staying away for 18 more months, but not regular businesses and gatherings and activities.

To me, it's conceivable, if only barely so. Imagine another pandemic, where the likely death toll included millions of American children. But of course, that's not COVID.

Jay Z: Perhaps a really limited loosening of certain retail could be done if group interactions are avoided.

Soon we'll see a bunch of different proposals on how to stagger entry back into normalcy - one city at a time, first this business, then another, maybe one week on, two weeks off, etc. But how in the hell would this ever get organized? Another thing that's difficult to imagine.
   3828. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:40 AM (#5935787)
this is one depressing thread!
   3829. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5935789)
   3830. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5935790)
actual headline from tampabay.com

Tom Brady has arrived in Tampa Bay, moving into Derek Jeter’s mansion
The 30K-foot waterfront home on Davis Islands will be the new residence for the Bucs quarterback.
Florida does have a lot of sand for head-burying purposes.
   3831. BrianBrianson Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5935791)
3813. I think that's sound logic for normal times, but this isn't just an economic downturn. It's a crisis of people being unable or unwilling to leave their homes. The short term carnage could be major for public and community colleges.


Oh, yeah, in the short term it's awful in some corners. I'm on a postdoc that's only funded through October, so I continue to apply for permanent jobs but am trying to figure out another strategy. Already one search I applied to is cancelled, and another delayed. But for this year you already have their money, for next year, the downsides are big; but there'll also be a lot of people looking for credentials come September. So, other than those of us trying to get new jobs for next year, or places really dependent on that "hands-on" experience, I think the outlook is probably very rosey. Even in the short term, most students are paying via loans or parents and have already paid, so there's less of a short term cash problem than most businesses.
   3832. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5935792)
Perhaps a really limited loosening of certain retail could be done if group interactions are avoided. I am more worried about groups than I am the grocery store at this point.
The problem is, people have shown time and time again in this crisis that they can't be trusted not to be stupid, even in the face of being well informed as to what's going on. If you open things up a bit, people will be right back to congregating in groups.
   3833. BrianBrianson Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5935793)
But nobody is yet explicitly saying that there's a certain amount of death that we will tolerate.


Well, zero deaths is not an option we can choose. And really, complete shutdown isn't a minimum of deaths - you can't shut down food production, food distribution, medical care and production, and supporting industries, and achieve a minimum of deaths.

If it was geographically confined, like it appeared to be in Wuhan, you can shut down a limited region and send in everything from elsewhere. But now that it's essentially global (save Antarctica, it seems), you can't home for a total shutdown and to stomp out the remaining bits. Only a sufficient slowdown that hospitals don't have to turn away people who could survive with medical care.
   3834. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5935794)
The problem is, people have shown time and time again in this crisis that they can't be trusted not to be stupid, even in the face of being well informed as to what's going on. If you open things up a bit, people will be right back to congregating in groups.


I don't have a good feeling for how common or rare these brazen quarantine-flouters are.
   3835. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5935795)
I don't have a good feeling for how common or rare these brazen quarantine-flouters are.
At least here in Chicago, public spaces had to be shut down one after the other as people showed that if the weather was good, they would congregate wherever was open. Most recently this was on the lakefront and the "606" walking path when we had a nice day last week. My guess is that parks will be next if/when we start seeing more basketball games and such as the spring weather improves.
   3836. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:09 AM (#5935797)
What does "congregate" mean? People should be allowed to use public spaces, if possible, encouraged even, as long as they're mindful of keeping distant from one another. Pickup basketball is obviously beyond the pale. I'd nope out of any area that was crowded enough to resemble a public bus or train.
   3837. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5935798)
This is where leadership is crucial. If we all had a clear plan, plainly stated and explained in ordinary language, on what we should do and how we should expect this to play out, I think most people would be fine with that. But what we have is a welter of different institutions and communities making reactive decisions with no ability to plan for the long-term, and that's not sustainable.
   3838. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5935800)
But nobody is yet explicitly saying that there's a certain amount of death that we will tolerate. It's a tough conversation to have. But it's something we will have to confront. The rather extreme social distancing we're doing now must significantly hinder the spread of the virus, and we could (in theory) keep it up until a vaccine is widely available, which I think would certainly save lives, not just from the secondary bucket of people that would die because the hospitals are incapable of helping them, but from the primary bucket of people that will die if they contract COVID even under the best of circumstances. But gosh, it's difficult to imagine keeping this dead-economy isolated life thing up for 18 months.


IMO, this conversation is not going to take place. We live in a democracy and we're probably asking too many people who view themselves as not at risk to make sacrifices for the common good. Public opinion is not going to turn on the macro view of what's best for society as a whole.

My hope is we do the most with this window of time to prepare for the medical emergency. If the status quo pushes into May and June I think we are seriously risking violent outcomes.
   3839. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5935801)
Just got back from the local store ... They now have giant rectangular plastic shields in between the checkout line and the cashiers.
Anyone else?
   3840. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5935802)
The problem is, people have shown time and time again in this crisis that they can't be trusted not to be stupid, even in the face of being well informed as to what's going on. If you open things up a bit, people will be right back to congregating in groups.


Problem is that congregating in groups for many, many people isn't really "stupid" in any serious sense and certainly isn't any more "stupid" than any manner of risky activity in which people engage. People are effectively being asked to massively sacrifice for one particular, and only one particular risk and moreover for a risk that really isn't even that risky to them -- and would be even less risky if they could be ensured a hospital bed and treatment in the extraordinarily unlikely event they will need one.

And worsening the problem is that many of the people are being effectively forced into congregating in groups because they have to go to work. For them to have to congregate in groups to make the money to pay rent, mortgage, food bills and then being told that congregating in groups in their leisure time is "stupid" and out of bounds is really kind of a ridiculous expectation. We can't build serious public policy around such unrealistic notions. You're 20 and healthy, but you can't play basketball in a public park for 18 months or two years? That's just crazy talk. As a temporary month or six weeks deal, maybe, but even that's a stretch.
   3841. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5935804)
What does "congregate" mean? People should be allowed to use public spaces, if possible, encouraged even, as long as they're mindful of keeping distant from one another. Pickup basketball is obviously beyond the pale. I'd nope out of any area that was crowded enough to resemble a public bus or train.
Not that crowded, i.e. with people right on top of each other, but from the photos/video I saw, definitely way too many for proper distancing. The Tribune has a few photos here - not sure if it's behind the paywall or not.
   3842. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5935805)
You know who is going to get totally hammered in this? Higher Education. We were already in an enrollment decline and now? I'm a tenured professor and I'm officially worried about my job. Tenure doesn't help if your college ceases to exist.

Same here. But, really, this is just a sign of how bad things are clearly going to get. When tenured professors are worried, the #### is long dried on the wall behind the fan. I really do think, short term, we're in about as good a spot as anyone (who isn't a billionaire). We'll do less research and we'll teach more classes than we like, but your example is the only way we lose our jobs (if our college closes). The adjuncts and visitors and teaching professionals and, probably, even a lot of staff and non-faculty admin go before us.

I mean, I'd rather be a tenured professor at the moment than just about any other "regular" job I can think of outside medical. Lawyers, I guess. Losing your job because your company went under isn't a new phenomenon.

Times are going to be tough. I don't get the idea that this doesn't play well on twitter or the internet. The only place I'm seeing people acknowledge how ###### the economy is is online.

I wish healthy and prosperity for you all. And compassion and recovery for the many of us who aren't going to get those first two.
   3843. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:26 AM (#5935806)
I've also been imagining the (rational but dystopian) future where some of us have been certified "Immune" and get a big green badge or something to prove it, and the people with badges are allowed to re-enter society and those without must remain quarantined. It can get even more dystopian if you imagine that, say, it costs $100 to get your badge, creating a stark class divide, or if it becomes common to wear the badge pinned to your clothes, and the badgeless are shunned and bullied. Maybe I've just read The Sneetches about 400 times in the last few years.
   3844. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5935808)
They now have giant rectangular plastic shields in between the checkout line and the cashiers.
Anyone else?


Yep. Makes sense, too.

I wonder if they'll stay up forever.
   3845. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:29 AM (#5935809)
When tenured professors are worried, the #### is long dried on the wall behind the fan.
It wouldn't be behind the fan, would it? The whole point is that the fan scatters the #### in all directions, all over the room.
   3846. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5935810)
I mean, I'd rather be a tenured professor at the moment than just about any other "regular" job I can think of outside medical. Lawyers, I guess.
i think the defense industry will end up doing very well out of this.
   3847. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5935811)
I also think it's essentially impossible for most people to gather and not get close. I'm not the most socially outgoing guy in the world and when I've chatted with neighbors across the street (about 25 feet), we inevitably end up taking a few steps toward each other. The change from yard to pavement alerts us to our drift and we stop. You just can't have people out and about and expect them not to occasionally get close to each other whether by intent, accident or unconscious drift.

This either ends with a favorable mutation (unlikely given the virus' known mutation rate), an effective vaccine (here the mutation rate helps), a miracle drug (unlikely), accurate, easy, cheap and scalable testing with dramatic increase in hospital capacity or herd immunity with a very large number of dead. What we're doing now is just buying time for those first four.
   3848. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5935815)
I've also been imagining the (rational but dystopian) future where some of us have been certified "Immune" and get a big green badge or something to prove it, and the people with badges are allowed to re-enter society and those without must remain quarantined. It can get even more dystopian if you imagine that, say, it costs $100 to get your badge, creating a stark class divide, or if it becomes common to wear the badge pinned to your clothes, and the badgeless are shunned and bullied. Maybe I've just read The Sneetches about 400 times in the last few years.

HIV testing writ large.


It wouldn't be behind the fan, would it? The whole point is that the fan scatters the #### in all directions, all over the room.

Yeah, that's what I meant. A scatter plot on the wall behind (my impression is most goes through? I may get bored enough to experiment.
   3849. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5935818)
Just got back from the local store ... They now have giant rectangular plastic shields in between the checkout line and the cashiers.
Anyone else?

this is the case in every single place I've been in North Jersey of late. most are very handmade, but it looks, at least, as if they would be of help.

at a local liquor store, they don't even ask you to sign the credit card slip anymore, to make the experience even less tactile (or so I'm told).

as for parks.... it depends.

Bergen County - right across from the George Washington Bridge and the NYC epicenter - has closed its county parks. most of them draw large crowds on any decent weather day - too large.

I'm 10-20 miles west, and the parks tend to be larger, and the crowds smaller. so they remain open. I have been to one a couple of times, and seen ZERO failure to social distance. lots of solos, some couples, a small family here or there. but no close-up conversations among strangers or acquaintances.
   3850. bob gee Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:35 AM (#5935819)
3839 - Several supermarkets in my area put up the glass as well. I know they were up as of 5 days ago, I don't know when they started before that (they weren't there 2 weeks before that).
   3851. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5935820)
Yeah, that's what I meant. A scatter plot on the wall behind (my impression is most goes through? I may get bored enough to experiment.
If most goes through, then essentially you're just throwing #### at the wall to see what sticks, and that's an entirely different figure of speech. So I think most of it has to hit the fan and get scattered. Thus, the wall directly behind the fan would probably be the area with the least ####, relatively speaking. I could be wrong, though - let me know the results of your empirical research.
   3852. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5935821)
I've also been imagining the (rational but dystopian) future where some of us have been certified "Immune" and get a big green badge or something to prove it, and the people with badges are allowed to re-enter society and those without must remain quarantined. It can get even more dystopian if you imagine that, say, it costs $100 to get your badge, creating a stark class divide, or if it becomes common to wear the badge pinned to your clothes, and the badgeless are shunned and bullied. Maybe I've just read The Sneetches about 400 times in the last few years.


The UK is considering this, and claiming that it's not that bad because someone else had the idea first.

Even worse: imagine if the badge is a ticket to re-enter society, how many will actively seek to get infected?

I mean, I'd rather be a tenured professor at the moment than just about any other "regular" job I can think of outside medical.


You do not want to be a frontline medical professional right now. You will almost certainly contract Covid-19, and therefore you will almost certainly want to isolate even from your own household (my brother has moved out of his house and into student accommodation near his hospital. His daughter is 3 months old). You will have to deal with many patients who 'deserve' a bed, or a ventilator, and won't get one. You will have to deal with patients who expect non-coronavirus medical care, and don't understand why they should have to wait longer. You will have to deal with the crazies who think it's all a giant conspiracy and go round ripping off people's PPE or faking bomb threats. Maybe some of them aren't fake.

And you're really quite likely to get sick and die, if heavier viral loads mean more severe infections, and it seems quite likely that they do. All this so that you can work 16-hour+ days doing something that you always knew could happen, but that your managers decided wasn't worth preparing for in the name of 'efficiency'.
   3853. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5935822)
It's not just going to be the SLACs but also peripheral colleges like the one I teach at in TX. The state derives its money from taxes (greatly sales) and oil revenue. Both have cratered. That's going to destroy budgets here, budgets that never recovered from 2008.
Colleges have historically seen benefit from high unemployment, but we;ve never been in a context before where a large segment of the population has been trained to regard college as a threat to Murika, while the press has had a field day with poorly researched and written stories of rising college costs. (As a full prof I make slightly more (I think) than a brand new asst prof at our fancy private in Houston.)
If classes will be online, the non-completion and dropout rates are much higher than in brick-and-mortarville. I see a lot of my students (first generation, minority) having problems with connectivity and hustling to patch together their rents, feed their families.
I'm no more sanguine than Weekly.
   3854. Greg Pope Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5935823)
Just got back from the local store ... They now have giant rectangular plastic shields in between the checkout line and the cashiers.
Anyone else?


I've seen that at a few places. Also the tape on the floor marking 6 feet apart.

I went to Sam's Club for my groceries. They have an app where you can scan your items on your phone and pay for them. So I didn't have to touch anything except the cart (which they're disinfecting) and the stuff I bought.
   3855. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5935824)
You do not want to be a frontline medical professional right now. You will almost certainly contract Covid-19,

True. Just thinking in terms of sustained employment. Obviously, a tenured prof sitting in his living room (well, garage in my case) designing online content is a much cushier job).

The weird thing about the USA paying so much for health care is I'd be all for doubling (or more) salaries for the folks actually delivering the health care.


Delivering higher ed remotely is very challenging under the best of times. I have no idea how secondary schools are doing it.
   3856. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5935826)
Delivering higher ed remotely is very challenging under the best of times. I have no idea how secondary schools are doing it.
According to my friends with kids, the answer to this is mostly "with limited success and at significant frustration to parents." Which is pretty understandable at least initially, given the difficulties of transitioning to an online environment this quickly and unexpectedly.
   3857. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5935828)
Also the tape on the floor marking 6 feet apart


Yeah, that's been in place for about a week now.
   3858. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5935832)
And the departments that don't directly train people for clear, obvious employment paths will certainly not see any increase in employment; they'll see an even more rapid decrease than before.

And with the sudden switch to online, the early returns in my classes do certainly seem to indicate that there are several students in them who are finding it difficult to make the transition. I'm trying to keep reaching out, but there isn't anything I can do beyond that. I can't get them more time or more money, which are undoubtedly the things they need.
   3859. tshipman Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5935833)
Re: People throwing up their hands and saying this is all impossible and we were destined for this from the beginning:

That's just not true. In San Francisco, where the mayor acted appropriately and quickly to this, there is no emergency.
   3860. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5935834)
I've certainly got some students who are hard to reach. However, they were hard to reach before we retreated.

As chaotic as the transition has been, I'm glad to have had half a semester with them. I think that makes a huge difference. If we have to start the fall online, it'll be a much different situation.
   3861. Eddo Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5935835)
Re: People throwing up their hands and saying this is all impossible and we were destined for this from the beginning:

That's just not true. In San Francisco, where the mayor acted appropriately and quickly to this, there is no emergency.

The early action is great, but I think we need to wait and see. Has it just not hit San Francisco badly yet? If it's not spreading there, what happens when restrictions get relaxed?

Similar question to what I asked about South Korea earlier. If only 1% of the population has had it, is it ever safe to relax restrictions without the whole thing starting over?
   3862. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5935836)
As chaotic as the transition has been, I'm glad to have had half a semester with them.


Absolutely. I've been surprised to find out how muchnot being able to move around affects my teaching. Who knew there was a choreography to it.
   3863. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5935837)
Because we can never have enough grim news:

Late Wednesday night, the IHME released revised estimates, based on new data. During the first wave of the epidemic, its model projects, the death toll will be 93,765 — an increase of 14 percent from its model the previous day. That’s just the first wave, looking at the number of deaths through July. In the fall and winter, the virus is expected to reemerge and pose a significant threat once again.
   3864. Jay Z Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5935838)
The UK is considering this, and claiming that it's not that bad because someone else had the idea first.

Even worse: imagine if the badge is a ticket to re-enter society, how many will actively seek to get infected?


Right now, there's no society to re-enter, so knock yourself out in getting infected, I guess.

You also have to be willing to put the people who are going to cheat the system in prison.

If you don't want to do that because you don't want to give the power to the state, fine, but it certainly will be given in certain cases. And we are already self limiting our behavior anyway.

As far as the whole "people will riot" bit, what exactly will they be rioting against? The virus? The virus wins right now. Go ahead, have your rogue church service because you think God requires you to be physically in the same place. The virus doesn't care why you are all in the same room.
   3865. Zonk is Dominating the Battlespace Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5935840)
The UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands all took at a shot "herd immunity" early on.... and while it's certainly too soon to figure out what, if any, policy would have been best -- all 3 countries are now seeing big spikes in deaths and all 3 have also done a complete 180...
   3866. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5935841)
Mayor, that's a grim forecast. And it's also an optimistic one.
   3867. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5935842)
Similar question to what I asked about South Korea earlier. If only 1% of the population has had it, is it ever safe to relax restrictions without the whole thing starting over?


It's never going to be completely safe. But you're going to get better outcomes by delaying the highest risk to a time of greater preparation. (And, cynically, by your population having seen how badly things can go wrong if they don't follow instructions about distancing, cleanliness, etc.)
   3868. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5935843)
According to my friends with kids, the answer to this is mostly "with limited success and at significant frustration to parents." Which is pretty understandable at least initially, given the difficulties of transitioning to an online environment this quickly and unexpectedly.


My wife teaches elementary school, so we've been able to observe the process close up, at least for our district. At least colleges have people around with online education experience (and college education is, at least ostensibly, being delivered to adults who are considered responsible for themselves). It's really challenging to re-imagine and re-implement the whole process of delivering instruction within a two-week time period. They're trying to train everyone right now. One of the problems that they can't do anything about, of course, is that online elementary education relies heavily on parents to do the actual implementation of the lesson, and there's really no way around that, since classroom education relies heavily on the teacher circulating among the students. The parents who are lucky enough to have jobs that allow them to work from home and are still going on are, well, working from home! They can't also be teaching school at the same time.

While the teachers are having seminars on how to design distance-learning content and operate the applications, the district is trying to get computers distributed to the families who need them. Internet access is a bottleneck, though; Comcast has apparently refused to set it up for any household with an outstanding bill even though the district has promised to pay for it. Partly for those reasons, the order has been given that for the online period, no assignment will be graded except as "pass" or "incomplete." It's absolutely understandable and necessary to do it this way, but it contributes still further to driving down the incentive for either students or parents to engage with the situation even to the extent that they actually can.
   3869. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5935844)
The UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands all took at a shot "herd immunity" early on.... and while it's certainly too soon to figure out what, if any, policy would have been best -- all 3 countries are now seeing big spikes in deaths and all 3 have also done a complete 180...


Did Sweden give up on this? The latest I saw earlier this week is that most businesses are still open and they're trying to keep separation going without asking everyone to stay home.

As far as the whole "people will riot" bit, what exactly will they be rioting against? The virus? The virus wins right now. Go ahead, have your rogue church service because you think God requires you to be physically in the same place. The virus doesn't care why you are all in the same room.


I think they will be rioting/disobeying to "own the [insert opposed political clique]", and will in turn infect other at-risk groups who will add to the strain on hospitals, and indirectly cause further deaths among others.
   3870. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5935845)
I've certainly got some students who are hard to reach. However, they were hard to reach before we retreated.

As chaotic as the transition has been, I'm glad to have had half a semester with them. I think that makes a huge difference. If we have to start the fall online, it'll be a much different situation.


I agree with all of the above.
   3871. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5935849)
3861--San Fran focus now is finding rooms for homeless who have been virus so they can be quarantined. 53 police officers have been placed under quarantine after two were confirmed with virus.

As of yesterday SF has 434 confirmed cases and 7 deaths. Santa Clara has 956 cases and 32 deaths. San Mateo 388 and 10 deaths. Contra Costa 250 cases and 3 deaths. Don't have hospitalizations sorry.

Annoying aspect of SF and SV in general is that everyone is now an expert, they are all supposedly making ventilators or would if they were not stuck at home, they all have access to some stash of masks and ##### about the FDC or someone not letting them sell them or give them to hospitals and all want hydroxychorloquine/Azithomycin/Tocilizumab distributed en masses as its 'obviously effective'
   3872. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5935851)
Late Wednesday night, the IHME released revised estimates, based on new data. During the first wave of the epidemic, its model projects, the death toll will be 93,765 — an increase of 14 percent from its model the previous day. That’s just the first wave, looking at the number of deaths through July. In the fall and winter, the virus is expected to reemerge and pose a significant threat once again.


If we come in under 100k, I'm going to be shocked.

Happy, so VERY happy, but shocked.
   3873. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5935853)

Similar question to what I asked about South Korea earlier. If only 1% of the population has had it, is it ever safe to relax restrictions without the whole thing starting over?

You'd need aggressive contact tracing. And older/at-risk people will probably need to take greater protections than most people. There will probably be greater tolerance for people working from home (especially when they're sick), and doing videoconferences rather than traveling for in-person meetings. I mean, it's already kind of stupid to get on a plane/train for a 1-2 hour client pitch in a lot of cases, even though I've done it dozens of times.
   3874. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5935854)
Speaking as someone who is both teaching 5 college courses online and homeschooling my 7 year old first grader I can say that there is very little "distance learning" happening. My YouTube video lectures are mostly jokes about my slovenly appearance and teaching my son involves a lot of chess and Pokemon card game. Though actually that is probably more edifying than the usual first grade curriculum. Oh we are also reading Matilda together which is fun.
   3875. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:46 PM (#5935855)
It's really challenging to re-imagine and re-implement the whole process of delivering instruction within a two-week time period. They're trying to train everyone right now. One of the problems that they can't do anything about, of course, is that online elementary education relies heavily on parents to do the actual implementation of the lesson, and there's really no way around that, since classroom education relies heavily on the teacher circulating among the students. The parents who are lucky enough to have jobs that allow them to work from home and are still going on are, well, working from home! They can't also be teaching school at the same time.
Yep. This is exactly my friends' experience.
   3876. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5935856)
So bottom line is we should enjoy the hell out of August?
   3877. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5935857)
I think they will be rioting/disobeying to "own the [insert opposed political clique]",
I don't mean this to be OTP, but let's be realistic in discussing this here - it's pretty much only one side of the political spectrum that is belligerent about the lockdown measures.
   3878. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5935858)
I don't mean this to be OTP, but let's be realistic in discussing this here - it's pretty much only one side of the political spectrum that is belligerent about the lockdown measures.


. . . I was trying SO HARD . . .
   3879. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5935859)
Yes to what Vaux said. For elementary kids there really isn't any "remote instruction" happening. There is, at best, remote content delivery. The parents must do the actual instruction. I don't blame teachers for this, and I'm lucky my son and I get on well with this kind of thing. Yesterday in gym class I swear he was touching 50 mph in the backyard judging by the pop of my mitt.
   3880. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5935860)
3877--FWIW check out the comments online about the parents of kids at Liberty University. Typical comment starts, "I am conservative to the core but you (meaning Falwell) are the" followed by a string of insults. Pretty hilarious. I don't sense conservative parents or people who actually love the old people in their family are on the side of FREEDOMS!
   3881. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5935862)

For the professors teaching online, are the lessons recorded? I am not someone who learns that well in a lecture hall (partially due to bad hearing), and always found it was helpful to be able to go back and watch the lecture again where available, when I could pause/rewind if I didn't hear things properly. Not sure if that would help your students who are falling behind. Maybe this is obvious and everyone already does this; when I was in college I had to check out VHS tapes from the library and only a few big lecture classes did it.
   3882. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5935864)
3877--FWIW check out the comments online about the parents of kids at Liberty University. Typical comment starts, "I am conservative to the core but you (meaning Falwell) are the" followed by a string of insults. Pretty hilarious. I don't sense conservative parents or people who actually love the old people in their family are on the side of FREEDOMS!
That's good, and I'm not suggesting that all, or anywhere near all,* of those on the right are anti-safety measures. Just that pretty much all of the belligerence seems to be coming from that side, whatever fraction of the right that it represents, and if we're going to discuss what rioting would look like, we should take that into account.

*Or even a majority - I haven't looked at polling on that issue recently.
   3883. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5935865)
3881. every professor is different. I don't do anything"synchronous." Everything whether written or recorded is simply posted to Moodle (online course software). Nobody has to be online at any particular time.
   3884. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5935867)
For elementary kids there really isn't any "remote instruction" happening. There is, at best, remote content delivery. The parents must do the actual instruction. I don't blame teachers for this


My kid's school is making a great effort. This morning they had a 20 minute Zoom with the teacher and the class where the teacher taught them how to draw 3-D prisms and did some fractions stuff. They'll have another Zoom today at 3pm. They're not going to churn through a lot of academic material at this rate, but it's something. It frames the day, and keeps her in touch.

Mostly it is content delivery, but we've been pleased with the content they're delivering. Great videos about science, ideas for projects. Good books. My daughter is highly motivated to get the most points in a math game the kids all have access to.

This suits us well. We let the kid choose what she wants to do, and otherwise don't sweat it. It's basically summer vacation mode but with 1-2 hours of self-directed and optional "homework" time per day. I've long been homeschool-curious so I've really been enjoying it. The wife and I are very, very lucky to be able to mix & match flexible work schedules and share the teaching duties.
   3885. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5935868)
For elementary kids there really isn't any "remote instruction" happening. There is, at best, remote content delivery.


Yeah, but in Turkey, they managed on day one for the grammar-schoolers to air the execution of Menderes (who Erdogan sees himself as a second coming of) and Daladin beheading the Infidel. Eat your heart out Dan Patrick.
   3886. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5935869)
Oh we are also reading Matilda together which is fun.

Same. I had never read that one. Strange book...
   3887. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5935870)
For the professors teaching online, are the lessons recorded?


If the professor remembers to press record, than they are in Zoom and Blackboard Collaborate, the two platforms I've dealt with. My own experience was that the latter platform easily overwhelmed and crashed,, the former only sometimes. Part of the problem is that no matter how fast the cable in the street (outside of cities, not very) and from wall to modem to computer are, if the stuff in the wall is the same age as the building, you're not getting anything like the the highest possible speed.In my case, it seems to run about 500MbS

obviously, I'm still doing synchronous. I don't want to think about sitting alond, sober, in front of a camera producing a lecture.
   3888. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5935871)
Also, I may end the school year on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. I'm sleeping with the principal so I think I can swing it.
   3889. pikepredator Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5935873)
One of the problems that they can't do anything about, of course, is that online elementary education relies heavily on parents to do the actual implementation of the lesson, and there's really no way around that, since classroom education relies heavily on the teacher circulating among the students. The parents who are lucky enough to have jobs that allow them to work from home and are still going on are, well, working from home! They can't also be teaching school at the same time.

[/quote

I openly cop to having all the advantages (ed degree, still employed from home, sufficient money and supplies to not worry about the immediate future) and so my 10-year old daughter is having fun and learning math, reading, writing, some science, every day. I'm able to balance working from home with guiding her learning, she's responsible enough to follow through when I give her a task. She works it for 15-30 minutes while I'm working, she takes a break to play or have a snack, rinse, repeat. That's our hourly schedule from about 9-4. My older son will be able to help her in the event that I go back to my workplace in the next few weeks, and by then we'll have a solid routine going anyway.

There aren't too many people who have the combination of factors necessary to make this happen, and it will play out in unpredictable ways when kids go back to school this fall. If she was even just a couple of years younger, it would be so much harder to manage. Assuming school starts up in the fall as usual, the teachers are going to have to deal with even wider ranges of skills than usual.
   3890. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5935874)
Yes to what Vaux said. For elementary kids there really isn't any "remote instruction" happening. There is, at best, remote content delivery. The parents must do the actual instruction. I don't blame teachers for this, and I'm lucky my son and I get on well with this kind of thing. Yesterday in gym class I swear he was touching 50 mph in the backyard judging by the pop of my mitt.

I am tied for greatest parent in the world (i.e. I don't have kids) but for anyone under 12 or 13, just make sure they can read at level (or above) and do math at least as well as they should be able to. Get them interested in both as much as you can. Beyond that, I'm not sure there is a lot before high school that can't be caught up. I don't mean that to disparage those teachers, even doing as much as I suggest with a room full of diverse children is hard ####### work. And there is plenty in high school and even college that could be caught up. I'm just saying, in these trying times, make sure they can do the the three Rs and call it good.


For the professors teaching online, are the lessons recorded? I am not someone who learns that well in a lecture hall (partially due to bad hearing), and always found it was helpful to be able to go back and watch the lecture again where available, when I could pause/rewind if I didn't hear things properly. Not sure if that would help your students who are falling behind. Maybe this is obvious and everyone already does this; when I was in college I had to check out VHS tapes from the library and only a few big lecture classes did it.


3881. every professor is different. I don't do anything"synchronous." Everything whether written or recorded is simply posted to Moodle (online course software). Nobody has to be online at any particular time.


I don't routinely record lectures but that might have changed for good at this point. I've done it in the past when I've had students with disabilities that prevent notetaking. I think 50-75 minutes is a long time to stay engaged in a lecture even in person. So I have, when I have time or think of it, put shorter snippets online for students. I'm doing that conscientiously now. Problem sets (I teach chemistry) and keys, along with video problems where I pose a problem, tell them to hit pause, work the problem and then play for the solution.

I am still meeting with them during our assigned class times but I'm not presenting new material. It's Q&A and discussion. I've been doing some advising for fall classes and, as much as I'm able, advising on how to deal with current circumstances. Mostly I want to be sure they're ready to go on to the next class (chemistry is more sequential than most fields). If they know acid/base chemistry and how carbonyls react, I'll be happy.

I find my video lectures are watched by about three-quarters of the class and attendance at real class is about 90%. Honestly, both numbers are better than I expected.

I do hear stories about colleagues (at my school and others) who seem to have gone full authoritarian. Seems counterproductive.


They're taking a midterm right now, so I'll know soon enough how it's going.

I would also like to have someone to play catch with.
   3891. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5935875)

entering today, NJ had 355 reported COVID-19 deaths.

update today: add 182 more, to 537.
   3892. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5935876)
Late Wednesday night, the IHME released revised estimates, based on new data. During the first wave of the epidemic, its model projects, the death toll will be 93,765 — an increase of 14 percent from its model the previous day. That’s just the first wave, looking at the number of deaths through July. In the fall and winter, the virus is expected to reemerge and pose a significant threat once again.

Yeah, I mentioned this last night. Their model has been running short on day 1 (on worldometers) of each projection they update.

It's pretty bleak.
   3893. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5935877)
Assuming school starts up in the fall as usual, the teachers are going to have to deal with even wider ranges of skills than usual.

No kidding. Also a problem in higher ed with pre-reqs. Thought not as great, obviously.

But if I'm alive and healthy in the fall, I'll deal with it.


   3894. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5935878)
38092 -- sorry, missed that, but checked only the present page
   3895. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5935879)
For anyone looking for a good read along storybook at the Roald Dahl level, the late Terry Jones' "Nicobobinus" is a great option.
   3896. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5935881)
Official worldwide reported death toll on Worldometers has offically passed Epstein's ridiculous estimate (50,000). Total official cases will pass Epstein's ridiculous estimate (1,000,000) later today (probably within the next 30 minutes or so - it's just under 997,000 as I type this) - seriously, somehow he came to the conclusion that there would only be one million cases worldwide; what the absolute ####!?. Of course, given the all but certain under-reporting of both numbers, the actual values for both numbers passed Epstein's ridiculous estimates several days, if not weeks, ago.
   3897. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5935882)
My guess is he was banking on even more under reporting than there has been.
   3898. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5935883)
but for anyone under 12 or 13, just make sure they can read at level (or above) and do math at least as well as they should be able to. Get them interested in both as much as you can. Beyond that, I'm not sure there is a lot before high school that can't be caught up.

Certainly our philosophy. I'd rather teach the kids some practical #### than belabor the 2nd grade academics.
   3899. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5935884)
Our software doesn't show me who's watched my videos. It shows me who's logged on and when, so that's something.

   3900. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5935885)
Certainly our philosophy. I'd rather teach the kids some practical #### than belabor the 2nd grade academics.

Indeed. I'm currently stymied by a toilet that runs constantly for new reason I can find.
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