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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   3901. bunyon Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5935886)
Flip.

And if you guys have a clear sky, go out tonight about an hour after sunset and check out Venus (about a third of the way up in the western sky). For the next three nights, it'll be passing in front of the Pleiades.

Depending on your eyes, you may need some binoculars. Binoculars or a small telescope will certainly make it look nicer.
   3902. Ron J Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5935887)
#3674 where mask use has been an integral part of the strategy there has been a government campaign to educate people on proper mask use.

Best evidence suggests proper mask use helps. Assuming an adequate supply of good masks.
   3903. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5935889)
Definitely going to check that out, bunyon.
   3904. Hysterical & Useless Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5935892)
Assuming an adequate supply of good masks.


My wife has been making masks, sending them to relatives & friends. We're also giving a couple to our building super, who does a terrific job.
   3905. Srul Itza Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5935893)
we're probably asking too many people who view themselves as not at risk


As this thing spreads everywhere in the country, and more and more people find out that somebody they know has it, this number is going to drop.

The people who view themselves as "not at risk" are probably going to be, disproportionately, the ones who contract it, because stupid.
   3906. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5935894)
"Not at risk" isn't properly defined as "not at risk of contracting COVID."
   3907. . . . . . . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:48 PM (#5935896)
Depending on your eyes, you may need some binoculars. Binoculars or a small telescope will certainly make it look nicer.


Cool fact: I have very good visual acuity, and when I was younger, I could resolve Venus as a crescent near conjunction. Can't do it anymore, though.
   3908. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5935898)
So is poster '.....' related to poster '.' but only distantly therefore all the extra periods? What is the english say he is my cousin twice removed?
   3909. . . . . . . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5935900)
No relation. I was doxxed 4 years ago by a lunatic on another site, and as a result had to remove all identifying info from my internet handles.
   3910. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5935902)
3909--wow, that sucks. Sorry.
   3911. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5935903)
Of course, given the all but certain under-reporting of both numbers, the actual values for both numbers passed Epstein's ridiculous estimates several days, if not weeks, ago.


Case in point:

The corpses have been overwhelming Guayaquil, a port city of 2.8 million at the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis in Ecuador.

Over the last few days, several were wrapped in plastic and left on the streets. Others have lain unclaimed in hospitals and clinics that have been overwhelmed by infections. The city morgue is full.

The majority of the dead are believed to be victims of the virus, but nobody can say for sure how many. There has been little testing.

The country has confirmed 2,700 infections and 93 deaths — 60 of them in Guayaquil and its immediate surroundings. But municipal officials there said they have recovered at least 400 bodies in recent days.


400 bodies in recent days, from a city that has officially reported 60 during the entirety of this event.
   3912. Tony S Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5935906)

And Guayaquil is as hot-weather as a city can get. This isn't promising for those who project a summer "break".

Went to the grocery store today. Needed milk and a few other things. I wore a mask, was in and out of there in 20 minutes, and steered clear of others best I could. And I still feel paranoid.
   3913. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5935908)
--
   3914. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5935910)
Yeah, Guayaquil is on the equator at sea level. It's not Africa hot, but the daily mean temperature is roughly 80 degrees year round. And march is their hottest month, with a daily mean of 82.4.
   3915. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5935911)

Indeed. I'm currently stymied by a toilet that runs constantly for new reason I can find.



This worked for me over the summer.
   3916. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5935912)
Catching up on all of the education stuff on the previous page.... The woman across the street from me is a middle school ESL teacher at one of the poorer schools in town. These are kids who really need her instruction and probably benefit more from it than most middle school students do from a single class. A third of her students essentially disappeared when the school shut down, and she hopes that the other 2/3 are getting half of the instruction they normally get. It's a huge disaster.
   3917. Srul Itza Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5935913)
And Guayaquil is as hot-weather as a city can get. This isn't promising for those who project a summer "break".


We have not hit the summer high here yet, but obviously, Hawaii is warmer than most places on the Mainland. And the spread is starting to accelerate here despite distancing and stay-at-home having been in effect since the cases were in double digits.

This year, I started teaching a course (Saturday Morning) at the University of Hawaii Engineering School in Construction Law. Following "spring break", I will be teaching my first remote class this Saturday via Zoom. We will see how that goes.
   3918. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5935915)
3917--Don't use Zoom if you don't want China eavesdropping. All the Zoom developers are based in China. Tesla just cancelled using Zoom because they were told of multiple security breaches.
   3919. Ron J Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5935916)
3734. You joke, but I live in Ottawa. Gatineau Police have been posted at all of the bridges from Ottawa to Gatineau.

They aren't actually blocking all entry but they are asking everybody what their business is.
   3920. Srul Itza Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5935918)
Don't use Zoom if you don't want China eavesdropping


Hey, if they like what they hear, maybe I'll get a referral.
   3921. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5935921)
What is the english say he is my cousin twice removed?


It’s American usage, too, but people don’t tend to use it. My Dad was an oldest child and had a fertile aunt only 8 years older than him on his mom’s side. She married a little late and kept going to have 11 kids. Most of them are in the same age range as my sisters and me. Although we’re the same age bracket, they are our dad’s first cousins and my first cousins once removed. Removed = generation difference.
   3922. Swedish Chef Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5935922)
3917--Don't use Zoom if you don't want China eavesdropping. All the Zoom developers are based in China. Tesla just cancelled using Zoom because they were told of multiple security breaches.

It's not only China you have to be worried about, it's a free-for-all. You don't even have to have any technical knowledge, you can partycrash meetings just by randomly trying meeting numbers, they use just ten digits in the meeting URL.
   3923. tshipman Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5935923)
Official worldwide reported death toll on Worldometers has offically passed Epstein's ridiculous estimate (50,000). Total official cases will pass Epstein's ridiculous estimate (1,000,000) later today (probably within the next 30 minutes or so - it's just under 997,000 as I type this) - seriously, somehow he came to the conclusion that there would only be one million cases worldwide; what the absolute ####!?. Of course, given the all but certain under-reporting of both numbers, the actual values for both numbers passed Epstein's ridiculous estimates several days, if not weeks, ago.


Why, it's almost as if he's an idiot clown who has no idea what he's talking about!
   3924. Swedish Chef Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5935925)
The UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands all took at a shot "herd immunity" early on.... and while it's certainly too soon to figure out what, if any, policy would have been best -- all 3 countries are now seeing big spikes in deaths and all 3 have also done a complete 180...

Sweden certainly haven't done a 180, they have tightened restrictions a bit but that was telegraphed several weeks ago. What Sweden isn't doing is that whole only running "essential" services thing. Because that isn't tenable for very long (essential services need a whole lot of "non-essential" stuff after a while).
   3925. Ron J Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5935927)
I'm seeing a special kind of stupid now. Several stores are limiting the number of people allowed inside. They're lining up shoulder to shoulder outside.

Oh and one of those sores is an electronics store. They are requiring you to sanitize as soon as you enter but that's still as pretty stupid situation.

No I didn't go in to any of these places. I noped out of the area as soon as I saw the lines.
   3926. Ron J Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5935928)
#3839 A friend was telling me that one of the Quebec grocery stores now has official flows. You go down one row, on to the next. No backtracking. No getting closer than 1 meter. They have actually hired bouncers.

Drove her nuts. Like many people she backtracks a lot while shopping normally. She found it weirdly stressful to try and process what she needed from any given row.
   3927. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5935929)
stores here have either markers on the pavement outside the store or line monitors or both.
   3928. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5935933)
Most things that make people feel like they have the flu aren't actually "the flu." I was sick over the holidays, wound up with the worst sore throat of my life by a factor of like 50, went to the doctor. They tested and I had neither flu nor a strep throat. Symptomatically, it felt entirely like both.


I wrote this on March 2, in a bit of a different context, but upon re-evaluation of my schedule, it's 90%-plus certain this was the Coronavirus. The only hesitance I have is that it was really early; had the same thing happened a month later it would be virtually certain. December 17, we went for our fake law office holiday lunch at the biggest dim sum restaurant in NYC Chinatown (*) and then we walked around and went into a bunch of shops and the like. By December 22, I felt bad enough that I told my sister I wasn't going to be able to fly to KC as planned for the holidays. Started feeling kind of ok, and then Phase 2 hit on Thursday, including diarrhea, which I've never had in my life and which we now know is a telltale sign. I also hurled that day, which also very rarely happens and is essentially unthinkable five days into an ordinary cold/flu. The fever got worse as time went on, the night massive cough and sore throat hit the next Sunday -- eight days in -- the sore throat didn't get any better, and the fever remained in the 101s at which point, 10-11 days in I had no choice but to go the local urgent care to get it checked out on New Years Day (Wednesday). As I wrote before, they tested me for strep and flu and I tested negative, which was kind of shocking but I tested negative because it was COVID.

None of what was going on made any sense at the time as just the "flu" and now it's clear why. I don't act as if it was COVID; I'm entirely paranoid now and wear a mask (**) on the rare occasions I even venture out and wash my hands incessantly and disinfectant wipe the food delivery packages ... but it was COVID. (**) (And the real inception date is going to continue to move back from November 17, itself moved back from December. It probably got going in Wuhan in September or October.)

(*) Jing Fong -- now closed, though probably temporarily. Has to seat at least 1,000 people.

(**) Since it was the holidays and my plans were nuked and I felt awful and I wasn't planning on working anyway, I effectively but unintentionally "self-quarantined." I was supposed to go back to work January 2, but still felt too bad and didn't make it back until the next Monday. A "flu" of that length is really unheard of, and that's because it wasn't the "flu."
   3929. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5935934)
Local drug store is limited to 10 people inside, so people naturally hang outside, not appropriately socially distanced.
   3930. tshipman Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5935935)
I wrote this on March 2, in a bit of a different context, but upon re-evaluation of my schedule, it's 90%-plus certain this was the Coronavirus.


Nah.

Edit: 100% certain you're an attention whore.
   3931. Snowboy Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5935936)
Write it down - when we return to socializing, I'm going onstage at open mike night, and I'm gonna riff about "remember the time of covid-19? I got laid off from my job at the airport, but I found work as a grocery store bouncer. I would yell "hey, social distancing ############!" and threaten people with a six foot long loaf of Italian bread." It's gonna play.

ADDED: When I get picked up and go on tour, the Quebec version will be "CALLIS! La distance de social, tabarnak!"
   3932. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5935940)
Write it down - when we return to socializing, I'm going onstage at open mike night, and I'm gonna riff about "remember the time of covid-19? I got laid off from my job at the airport, but I found work as a grocery store bouncer. I would yell "hey, social distancing ############!" and threaten people with a six foot long loaf of Italian bread." It's gonna play.

ADDED: When I get picked up and go on tour, the Quebec version will be "CALLIS! La distance de social, tabarnak!"


I support your ideas and dreams. I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
   3933. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5935941)
You didn't catch coronavirus in a Chinese restaurant in NYC in mid-December.
   3934. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5935942)
You didn't catch coronavirus in a Chinese restaurant in NYC in mid-December.


Does it really surprise you that people think this?
   3935. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5935949)
We're friends with an Ecuadorean couple here whose families live in Guayaquil. The wife's elderly parents were visiting when the borders closed, so they haven't been able to go back. Which would be for the best, except for the fact that, oh yeah, the husband is a doctor who is treating COVID patients. So they're all living together (along with the couple's 6-year-old son) in a condo in a high-rise downtown that is, although quite upscale, also not large at all. Their lives are...stressful.

We have offered to let the parents live in our empty condo, which we haven't been able to sell yet, but the wife is concerned that the isolation would potentially be more detrimental to them than the risk of infection.
   3936. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5935952)
It was really just a post for informational purposes; whether I did or didn't have it really -- believe it or not -- isn't subject to likes or upvotes on the internet. If you want to strenuously disbelieve someone had COVID, mmm-kay, I guess? Knock yourselves out.(*)

I will say, though, that it's a little ... odd ... to see how easily people get invested in their narratives and then everything works back from there. But in any event, it was certainly possible to catch COVID in mid-December in NYC Chinatown -- not for me in particular, but for anyone -- and it's virtually impossible to discern how anyone could think otherwise, much less feel the need to express the contrary opinion on the internet. Between November 17 and December 17, tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people flew from China to JFK airport in NYC. They didn't just stay at the airport.

(*) What exactly would one expect me to do with the downvotes? "Oh, OK, some guys that post on a baseball site on the internet that I post on insist I didn't have COVID, even though everything about it felt like it and now knowing what we know totally looks like it and even though two or three really smart sane people who actually know me agree with me. I must not have had it because the guys on the internet baseball site say so"??????? Kinda not how these things work. Sorry.
   3937. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5935953)
I wrote this on March 2, in a bit of a different context, but upon re-evaluation of my schedule, it's 90%-plus certain this was the Coronavirus.
If folks in contact with you, or who had been where you had been, didn’t come down with the virus, I’d be skeptical that you had it in December.
   3938. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5935956)
Like I wrote, I wasn't in contact with anyone. I was supposed to go to KC, it was the holidays, my son went without me, I felt like #### and stayed in my apartment the whole time and didn't go back to work until January 6. I could have maybe gutted out a day of the three or four "Phase 1" days at work, but wasn't scheduled to work so I didn't. After Phase 2 hit the day after Christmas, there was no chance of working and it stayed that way for a week and a half.
   3939. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5935960)
These are difficult times for the Richard Epsteins who walk among us...
   3940. PepTech Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5935962)
I will say, though, that it's a little ... odd ... to see how easily people get invested in their narratives and then everything works back from there.
Ain't THAT the truth.
   3941. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5935963)
I don't mean this to be OTP, but let's be realistic in discussing this here - it's pretty much only one side of the political spectrum that is belligerent about the lockdown measures.
Justice Ginsburg defying the Stay-At-Home Order to continue sessions with her personal trainer at the Supreme Court gym? All the folks crowding into urban parks, as mentioned by several posters here? Maybe, but I suspect you can find examples across the spectrum, although not that many, if you want to look.
   3942. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5935964)
That was a bit overboard compared to my actual thoughts. I was just saying does it really surprise you that old white people from flyover country do actually think that?
   3943. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5935965)
Does Alex Trebek have pancreatic cancer??? America, you decide!!!! Text 311 if yes, 411 if no. T-Mobile customers can vote free! The 150th yes and no votes will win a free, all-expenses-paid trip to Caesars Palace in beautiful, sunny Las Vegas!!!!! (Roaming charges may apply.)
   3944. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5935967)
Did Alex Trebek self-diagnose his cancer?
   3945. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5935969)
I know you can't really do this, but...

They announced 6.6M jobless claims today, making it 10M for two weeks, 1000+ Americans are dying a day in a pandemic... yet the market went up 2% today.
   3946. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5935973)
Anybody includes anybody. Everybody includes everybody. Those aren't political sentiments.
   3947. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5935974)
That was a bit overboard compared to my actual thoughts. I was just saying does it really surprise you that old white people from flyover country do actually think that?
Like the Mayor of NYC, who was urging people to go to their neighborhood bar on March 15, because no one knew how long it would be open?
   3948. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:14 PM (#5935977)
That was a bit overboard compared to my actual thoughts. I was just saying does it really surprise you that old white people from flyover country do actually think that?Like the Mayor of NYC, who was urging people to go to their neighborhood bar on March 15, because no one knew how long it would be open?


Bingo. We were actually planning on going to one the night of the ohio lockdown. Until the news said they had to close at 9pm. I closed the shop at 7. Pointless. So home drinking has commenced. And I've probably had a couple days of too much. But its not like I have anywhere to go. Or a reason to wear pants.
   3949. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5935978)
Yankee Clapper, you are the living spirit of OT:P. I understand that it must be frustrating to be a lone conservative voice in this place, but the dinky little ###-for-tat "liberals did something similar bad once too" comments are just ... ugh. Please stop. There are better ways to contribute.
   3950. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5935983)
Yankee Clapper, you are the living spirit of OT:P. I understand that it must be frustrating to be a lone conservative voice in this place, but the dinky little ###-for-tat "liberals did something similar bad once too" comments are just ... ugh. Please stop. There are better ways to contribute.
Fish, you (and others) don’t seem to have any problem with those here who have repeatedly injected politics into this thread, but seem to object when I correct their misstatements or express a different view. If folks don’t want to read contrary political statements or opinions, which may be the case for some here, they should stop injecting their own political views.
   3951. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5935984)
I haven't been a contributor for almost 10 years and the same people are doing the same dumb ####. Its like I never left. LOL
   3952. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5935985)
France just announced 1,355 new deaths, which is up from yesterday's 509 new deaths which had been their previous high. Although, it looks like this is because they did a mass add of nursing home deaths today - 884, which would leave 471 hospital deaths which is a bit fewer than yesterday.
   3953. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5935986)
You didn't catch coronavirus in a Chinese restaurant in NYC in mid-December.

Yeah, but maybe he gave it to people in a Chinese restaurant the night before a bunch of patrons flew to Wuhan. Him being the real Patient Zero would explain some things here.


The job numbers are, as far as the stock market is concerned, good. As in, higher joblessness helps the IHME and worldometers pages. It sucks, but distancing is the only way forward.
   3954. Srul Itza Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5935987)
There are better ways to contribute.


Not for him. One trick pony.
   3955. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5935989)
Fish, you (and others) don’t seem to have any problem with those here who have repeatedly injected politics into this thread,


Thread after thread after thread has been injected with politics since the end of OTP and it's utterly amazing that they don't see this.(*) This thread itself has been a non-stop politics-fest. Virtually every comment here has been political.(**) Since I'm an adult and able to tolerate and read and evaluate political commentary of all perspectives, no matter how ridiculous, it's no skin off me ... but the notion that there has been no politics in this thread other than Clapper's is a howler of the highest order and completely removed from reality.

(*) The absolute classic was last summer's Women's World Cup soccer thread which almost immediately turned into a group hug over equal pay for the USWNT and sexism and oh how awful it was that no one wanted to watch and all the rest. Politics virtually from start to finish. We might consider the degree to which the ignore feature and the intolerance of other perspectives and the 24/7 curated echo chambers have formulated a worldview and perspective and notion in the heads of avid practitioners that the political things they believe ... aren't really even political things, but instead just ... things. That's what happens when you intentionally and with great fanfare shut yourself out. This is essentially a newer species of what was referred to frequently on the late OTP boards as "Pauline Kaelism" -- How could Nixon have been elected; no one I know voted for him.

(**) The absolute classic in this vein was the attempted "shoot-down" of the anti-malaria drug idea, even after Andrew Cuomo pronounced his optimism -- just because Big Orange had spoken optimistically about it.
   3956. Jay Z Posted: April 02, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5935994)
Write it down - when we return to socializing, I'm going onstage at open mike night, and I'm gonna riff about "remember the time of covid-19? I got laid off from my job at the airport, but I found work as a grocery store bouncer. I would yell "hey, social distancing ############!" and threaten people with a six foot long loaf of Italian bread." It's gonna play.

ADDED: When I get picked up and go on tour, the Quebec version will be "CALLIS! La distance de social, tabarnak!"


Probably won't play. I doubt that anything virus will play when it's all done. People won't want to remember it. Better off finding some ridiculous meme or running gag and beating it into the ground. That'll play.
   3957. Mefisto Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5936003)
Yeah, but maybe he gave it to people in a Chinese restaurant the night before a bunch of patrons flew to Wuhan.


Walking through the streets of SoHo in the rain
He was looking for a place called Lee Ho Fook's
Gonna get a big dish of beef chow mein
   3958. Bowling Baseball Fan Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5936004)
Probably won't play. I doubt that anything virus will play when it's all done. People won't want to remember it. Better off finding some ridiculous meme or running gag and beating it into the ground. That'll play.


Right now, the meme world is on fire because of this.
   3959. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5936005)
Alex Halpern
@HalpernAlex

U.S. Navy on war crimes: Yes, Gallagher can come back and retire, we won't make too big a fuss.

U.S. Navy on officer trying to save his sailors: Literally get the #### out of here
   3960. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5936006)
Anyone have any idea why "SHUT YOUR DAMN MOUTH!" is not part of the list of daily precautions?

I understand that someone coughing on you is not the only way to get this - but it is a major way, ain't it?

When I make occasional brief forays out, my mouth is closed at all times. If I make a purchase, I'm not saying "Hello" or "Thank you" or anything. I'm glad you have that protective plastic sheet; I'll see your sheet and raise you a closed mouth.

If you can't breathe through your nose - doesn't that quite possibly mean you are an at-risk person?

I'll nod or tip my cap to a friendly person who is 15 or 20 feet away, maybe. But I ain't talking (and hell, if I can make that adjustment, anybody can!).

maybe I'm missing something.
   3961. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5936007)
If you can't breathe through your nose


Wait. COVID-19 is nasophobic?

I talk nonstop if the air's going out, nothing;s getting in. Best defense ifs a good offense.
   3962. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5936010)
if it was nasophobic, I wouldn't care as much if the other person talked - or generally was a mouth breather.
   3963. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5936012)

Like I wrote, I wasn't in contact with anyone. I was supposed to go to KC, it was the holidays, my son went without me, I felt like #### and stayed in my apartment the whole time and didn't go back to work until January 6.

You think you caught it at a work lunch on Dec. 17. How many other people at your lunch got sick?

You said you didn't feel sick until Dec. 22. Did you not interact with anyone during that time period?

Between November 17 and December 17, tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people flew from China to JFK airport in NYC. They didn't just stay at the airport.

Yes, but there were a small number of cases in China at that point, which were mostly if not entirely confined to Wuhan, which has <1% of China's population. How many people from Wuhan flew to the US? How many of those likely had coronavirus. How many of those ended up in a restaurant in Chinatown?

If it were spreading through Chinatown in mid-December then we'd be much further along in the outbreak than we currently are. There would have been coronavirus deaths in NY in January and February, rather than the first reported death being on March 14.

And for what it's worth, I took the subway to and from Chinatown multiple times in Jan and Feb, including going to the Lunar New Year fireworks celebration on Jan 25. If I or anyone else who I was with those days caught it, we were asymptomatic.
   3964. aberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:17 PM (#5936014)
Did I ever tell you guys about how I went to college with Tupac in the early '00s? A bunch of people told me the timing didn't make sense becuase Tupac "died" almost a decade earlier, but I see right through their agendas. This guy looked and sounded just like Tupac. It was definitely him.
   3965. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:19 PM (#5936015)
"according to a federal official, the C.D.C. will now recommend that everyone wear face coverings in public settings, like pharmacies and grocery stores, to avoid unwittingly spreading the virus. Public health officials have stressed that N95 masks should be saved for front line doctors and nurses, who have been in dire need of protective gear."

apologies if already posted
   3966. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5936016)

I will say, though, that it's a little ... odd ... to see how easily people get invested in their narratives and then everything works back from there.

Anyway, I don't care whether you believe you had it personally, as long as you don't take any risky actions because you think you're immune now or anything like that. As much as I disagree with you on here, you seem like a decent guy and I wouldn't want to see you catch this thing.

But the notion that the virus was spreading in downtown Manhattan in mid-December is simply inconsistent with all the other information we have about the outbreak in NYC and how the virus has behaved in other locations. Given how much of the discussion here has been about how contagious and lethal this virus is, and how it got to the US, it seemed worth it to correct the misinformation.
   3967. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5936017)
The captain of the Theodore Roosevelt is going to be removed from command. Announcement today.
   3968. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5936018)
The captain of the Theodore Roosevelt is going to be removed from command. Announcement today.
Please help me understand this. Did he actually do anything wrong? Did any of his actions have anything to do with the introduction or spread of the virus on the ship?
   3969. villageidiom Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5936019)
I wrote this on March 2, in a bit of a different context, but upon re-evaluation of my schedule, it's 90%-plus certain this was the Coronavirus. The only hesitance I have is that it was really early; had the same thing happened a month later it would be virtually certain. December 17, we went for our fake law office holiday lunch at the biggest dim sum restaurant in NYC Chinatown (*) and then we walked around and went into a bunch of shops and the like. By December 22, I felt bad enough that I told my sister I wasn't going to be able to fly to KC as planned for the holidays. Started feeling kind of ok, and then Phase 2 hit on Thursday, including diarrhea, which I've never had in my life and which we now know is a telltale sign.
When people say you didn't catch coronavirus in a Chinese restaurant in NYC in December, the important takeaway here is that if by chance the symptoms you developed by 12/22 and which grew on 12/26 was coronavirus, you cannot possibly trace it back to a lunch on 12/17. Like, it can't. It doesn't matter how many people were there, nor the cuisine. Relating the story (as, basically, "I went to a Chinese restaurant with a lot of people, then some time later I was very sick") just makes it sound like you're relying on racism to make the link. You might not have been doing that at all, or maybe you got invested in your narrative and then everything worked back from there. I'm just saying that, from across the internet, it's hard to tell the difference.

I had pretty much the same symptoms as you from 12/31 through around 1/6. I'd had a flu shot in October, and this sure seemed like the flu but worse. It was relentless, starting with the sore throat settling in late on the 31st, fatigue starting on 1/2, fever late on 1/2 and rising through 1/4, diarrhea on 1/3. I really didn't catch a break until I slept through most of 1/5.

On 12/31 before symptoms presented, I went to the movies; I went to a restaurant; I hung out with my family and a few friends. For days leading up to that I spent a lot of time visiting my mother at her assisted living facility, full of prime candidates for infection. I went to a celebration of life for a colleague's daughter who'd passed a couple of weeks earlier, and at that event I was with hundreds of people, including my co-worker and her immuno-compromised husband. If what I had had been COVID-19, surely one of these people would have caught it. My wife or kids? No. Other family? No. Co-worker's husband? No. Any one of the residents or employees at my Mom's place? No. None of them has it. Like, if I had COVID-19 several of these people would be dead, and many would have been ill like you and I were. Nope. Maybe it killed off a bunch of people I encountered, like at the movie theater, but happened to miss all the high-risk people about whose health I'm still informed.

Whatever I had did not have the same effects as COVID-19. It didn't have the same ease of transmission. It didn't have the same duration of contagion. It didn't have the same respiratory characteristics. It was different in ways that are material enough that I can state with confidence it wasn't COVID-19. I am, however, fairly confident based on what you described upthread that the same thing you caught in December in NY I caught in December in CT. I hope that narrows it down for you.
   3970. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5936020)
Please help me understand this. Did he actually do anything wrong? Did any of his actions have anything to do with the introduction or spread of the virus on the ship?
No, and no.

But he made the President look bad - can't have that!
   3971. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5936021)
it killed off a bunch of people I encountered, like at the movie theater, but happened to miss all the high-risk people about whose health I'm still informed.


Incredibly fortunate!

:D
   3972. puck Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5936023)
The official reason for Crozier's relief of duty is a loss of trust and confidence, according to the officials who spoke to NBC News [Story link]


Must be for the letter, or leaking it, etc.

Edit: Definitely not saying it's right.
   3973. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5936024)
Well, I can see the military perspective that a carrier captain shouldn’t be going public with “my vessel has seriously reduced capabilities at the moment”....

Still, sorry snowflakes, but it needs to be said.... I cannot help but compare a captain whose aim - however wrong he went about it - was protecting his grew from the disgraceful Gallagher bullshit.
   3974. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5936025)

U.S. Navy on war crimes: Yes, Gallagher can come back and retire, we won't make too big a fuss.

U.S. Navy on officer trying to save his sailors: Literally get the #### out of here


To be fair, the Navy brass actually opposed Gallagher coming back, and were overruled by Trump and the Secretary of Defense. The Sec of the Navy was actually fired over it.
   3975. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5936026)
You think you caught it at a work lunch on Dec. 17. How many other people at your lunch got sick?


I didn't say I caught it at a work lunch; I said there was a work lunch on the day I likely caught it if I caught it. The lunch wasn't the only part of the half-afternoon tour of Chinatown. I explicitly said that. Nor is it certain that I caught it, if I caught it, in Chinatown. It's merely reasonable speculation and a suspicious data point.

Who else caught it? Don't know. Maybe none. Doesn't really matter; they didn't touch the same things I touched, they didn't interact with the same people in the same way I interacted. There's literally zero scientific support for the proposition that if more than one person in an exposure didn't catch it, the person in the exposure didn't catch it.

Did you not interact with anyone during that time period?


Not much at work, but I went to the Rangers/Maple Leafs game on Friday, December 21. Don't know if anyone who sat around me caught it. It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't know, and they wouldn't know, given the relative unknowingness in the country about it at that time.

Yes, but there were a small number of cases in China at that point, which were mostly if not entirely confined to Wuhan, which has <1% of China's population. How many people from Wuhan flew to the US? How many of those likely had coronavirus. How many of those ended up in a restaurant in Chinatown?


The odds that no one was in Chinatown as a carrier of the virus on December 17 and the day or two before are effectively nil. There's no support for the proposition that an American in Chinatown on December 17 couldn't have contracted the virus. The people who brought the virus here didn't have to be "from Wuhan," they would only have to have been in Wuhan or in contact with someone from Wuhan or in contact with someone who had been to Wuhan. It had spread for at least a month before December 17, more likely two or three months.

Nor were there really a "small number" of cases in China at that point, but that's not a particularly important point to quibble about.

If it were spreading through Chinatown in mid-December then we'd be much further along in the outbreak than we currently are.


Nope -- that's inferring backward from current status, not evaluating first principles. The relevant question isn't "How likely is it to have caught COVID given the date and what we think we know about how "far along" things are?," it's "How likely is it that you had COVID based on the symptoms and experience you had?" And who said "spreading through Chinatown"? It was "in" Chinatown. Its spread and footprint by then was obviously not big. But of course it wouldn't have to be for random people to randomly catch it.

There would have been coronavirus deaths in NY in January and February, rather than the first reported death being on March 14.


No indication there weren't. There almost certainly were, but just not attributed to COVID. The odds that the first COVID death in NYC was March 14 are effectively zero.

And for what it's worth, I took the subway to and from Chinatown multiple times in Jan and Feb, including going to the Lunar New Year fireworks celebration on Jan 25. If I or anyone else who I was with those days caught it, we were asymptomatic.


There's no reason to believe merely traveling to Chinatown then would wind up with you or anyone with you having COVID. Catching it has a big component of random bad luck. I took the subways full time until Monday, March 16. There was unquestionably COVID on those trains and the odds are very high that one or more riders on the very same trains caught COVID. I got lucky not getting it (assuming I didn't already have it, which almost certainly would have made me immune.) Everyone who took rush hour subways in February and March without getting it got lucky.
   3976. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5936027)
Never mind... sorry inge... quoted and started typing before my brain comprehended the whole post :-)

I think it’s a recurrence of that COVID 19 I had when I was 12.... I read it causes cognitive hiccups.
   3977. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5936028)

#3969 yeah, my wife was extremely sick in mid-January with something similar. She had some coronavirus symptoms, but also some symptoms that are not consistent with coronavirus. It was bad enough that she went to the ER, but the doctors couldn't diagnose her. After about a week she was better. She later thought it might have been the coronavirus, and I had to convince her otherwise (if she had it, she didn't transmit it me or any of the hundreds of people she interacted with during that time period).
   3978. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5936030)
Hey can we get a game thread for tonight's HOME vs. AWAY Lotte Giants matchup from Busan, SK? Away put a thumping on them yesterday and Home is out for revenge.
   3979. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5936031)
It had spread for at least a month before December 17, more likely two or three months.


The spread of the virus results in a doubling of cases approximately every 3 days if unchecked. If 1 person had it on September 17, then the number of people with it on December 17 would be just over a billion. If on October 17, then about a million. In either case, nearly everyone on the planet would have had it by mid-February.
   3980. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:56 PM (#5936032)
She later thought it might have been the coronavirus, and I had to convince her otherwise


Why? That's the part I don't really get. None of my friends or the people who know me and with whom I interact have anything close to this perspective. The only thing that remotely makes sense would be to try to make sure someone who speculation thinks they had it doesn't become stupid and act as if they had it and can't get it, but beyond that, I can't get my head around the impulse. What drives people to take it upon themselves to insist to other people that those other people didn't have COVID?

Nor, honestly, does anything in the story you've reported that even confirms your conclusion that she didn't. Based on what? She very well may have -- I assume she lives in NYC and takes the subway and walks the streets and all that -- although you know more about her symptoms and experience, obviously, than I do.
   3981. . Posted: April 02, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5936034)
The spread of the virus results in a doubling of cases approximately every 3 days if unchecked. If 1 person had it on September 17, then the number of people with it on December 17 would be just over a billion.


No, it doesn't and no it wouldn't. There isn't even a dependable measurement of cases even sitting here today. This is pidgin science. Stop. We have no idea how many cases of COVID exist in the world today and we have no idea how many cases existed on February 1 or January 1.
   3982. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5936037)
from the account of un unfortunately-surnamed CNBC reporter:

Steve Liesman
@steveliesman
·
11h
Talked to a small biz owner who says his best course could be to get the govt loan, pocket the money, not pay employees and default. His concern: if this lasts longer than 8 wks, he will be out of business and have no $ to live on or pay his own taxes, losing his home.1/

Steve Liesman
@steveliesman
·
11h
2/ He says his employees will get UI benefits. He says govt needs to guarantee now it will be there w/ second round of aid if problem persists. He doesn't want to do this but concerned there is no choice. What's the point of saving a biz now that is destined to fail?
   3983. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5936038)
U.S. Navy on officer trying to save his sailors: Literally get the #### out of here

To be fair, the Navy brass actually opposed Gallagher coming back, and were overruled by Trump and the Secretary of Defense. The Sec of the Navy was actually fired over it.
And the “acting SecNav” fired this captain- full circle.

Still, it was the right move, much as I hate this administration. And the Captain will likely be allowed to retire. It would be shocking if he was not. He’ll just finish his career running a ROTC detachment or sitting at a desk in the basement of the pentagon.
   3984. Srul Itza Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5936040)
you seem like a decent guy



My sentiments exactly
   3985. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5936041)
Two questions:

My mother read or heard something a couple days ago that 6 feet really isn't sufficient, people should be 20 feet apart to ensure they can't infect anyone. Anyone else seen something like this from a reputable source?

Someone (cuomo?) was saying they expect the peak to be at end of April. Why would that be? If people started taking social distancing seriously a couple weeks ago (obviously not everyone, but a lot of people, whether by choice or imposed upon them), wouldn't we expect observable cases to start going down this week or at least by next week? Why would it keep rising for 3-4 more weeks, if distancing makes a difference?
   3986. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5936042)
This is pidgin science. Stop


And yet still more reliable than your suppositions. You don't need good evidence to destroy a hypothesis based on no evidence.
   3987. puck Posted: April 02, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5936044)
More on why the captain of the Teddy Roosevelt was relieved:

Modly told reporters that Crozier was removed for showing "extremely poor judgment" and creating a "firestorm" by too widely disseminating the memo detailing his concerns, copying some 20 to 30 people.

He said Crozier was not removed because of any evidence suggesting he leaked the memo to the press, but rather for allowing "the complexity of his challenge with the Covid breakout on the ship to overwhelm his ability to act professionally when acting professionally was what was needed the most at the time."


and

Modly said Crozier was relieved because he went outside the chain of command and sent his memo over an unsecured system, adding to the chances it could be leaked.
"He sent it out pretty broadly, and in sending it out broadly he did not take care to ensure that it couldn't be leaked, and that's part of his responsibility, in my opinion," Modly said.
"I have received absolutely no pressure. I have had no communication with the White House about this," he added.
   3988. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5936045)
3985 - I heard something similar from an overseas friend but didn't trace it.
   3989. PreservedFish Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:01 PM (#5936046)
On 12/31 before symptoms presented, I went to the movies; I went to a restaurant; I hung out with my family and a few friends. For days leading up to that I spent a lot of time visiting my mother at her assisted living facility, full of prime candidates for infection. I went to a celebration of life for a colleague's daughter who'd passed a couple of weeks earlier, and at that event I was with hundreds of people, including my co-worker and her immuno-compromised husband. If what I had had been COVID-19, surely one of these people would have caught it. My wife or kids? No. Other family? No. Co-worker's husband? No. Any one of the residents or employees at my Mom's place? No. None of them has it. Like, if I had COVID-19 several of these people would be dead, and many would have been ill like you and I were. Nope. Maybe it killed off a bunch of people I encountered, like at the movie theater, but happened to miss all the high-risk people about whose health I'm still informed.


It's not that easy. The natural R0 of the virus is thought to be 2.4ish - that is in the absence of any controls. You may have infected as few as 1-2 people. As many as 1-2 of them may have been asymptomatic or virtually so. Maybe you're better at covering your face when you cough than most people, so you infected even fewer.

Yes yes, exponential growth, but you'd have to infect about 100 people to kill 1 on average. "Several would be dead" is totally hyperbolic.
   3990. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:04 PM (#5936048)
I do understand this issue is critically important for so many people, so just in from USA Today:

WASHINGTON – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced Thursday that many Americans reeling from the financial impacts caused by the coronavirus outbreak can expect to see their one-time stimulus checks of up to $1,200 show up in their bank accounts in about two weeks. For those without direct deposit, Mnuchin promised checks would go out quickly in a matter of "weeks."

The announcement followed a memo sent out by House Democrats that warned some Americans could have to wait up to 20 weeks – or five months – before they receive their checks.

When asked about the memo, which was sent out by the House Ways and Means Committee, during a White House coronavirus task force briefing Thursday, Mnuchin said it was "not going to take" that long.

"Quickly, as a matter of weeks and not months," Mnuchin said of the money going out.
   3991. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:27 PM (#5936052)
Washington Post story has more information on how checks will go out for those without direct deposit:
Taxpayers who haven’t provided direct deposit information on their 2018 or 2019 tax returns will be able to enter it in a portal the IRS is setting up to speed up receipt of their checks, McLaughlin said.

The IRS plan would distribute paper checks to the lowest-income Americans first, prioritizing payments for individual taxpayers with incomes of $10,000 or less on April 24.
Checks for earners of $20,000 or less would be in the mail May 1, followed by those with incomes of $30,000 on May 8, $40,000 on May 15, and continuing in income increments of $10,000 each week, according to the plan. The IRS plans to issue about 5 million checks each week.

Stimulus checks would be issued on Sept. 4 to joint taxpayers earning $198,000, the maximum allowed under the stimulus. All others would be sent on Sept. 11, in most cases because the IRS did not have prior tax information for them and they need to apply for the checks.

   3992. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5936053)

The only thing that remotely makes sense would be to try to make sure someone who speculation thinks they had it doesn't become stupid and act as if they had it and can't get it, but beyond that, I can't get my head around the impulse. What drives people to take it upon themselves to insist to other people that those other people didn't have COVID?

Because it's not true, and she shouldn't go around spreading false information, including to people who she was with at the time. This was more of a concern a month ago when there might have been a legitimate concern that she was still contagious if she had actually had it, it's less of a concern now.

The odds that no one was in Chinatown as a carrier of the virus on December 17 and the day or two before are effectively nil.

I would put the odds at nearly 100%, given that we did not see people dying of coronavirus in NY until mid-March. Maybe there were a few cases before then, but if Chinese people were showing up in NYC hospitals dying of respiratory failure there is NFW that it wouldn't have received widespread press coverage.

Nope -- that's inferring backward from current status, not evaluating first principles. The relevant question isn't "How likely is it to have caught COVID given the date and what we think we know about how "far along" things are?," it's "How likely is it that you had COVID based on the symptoms and experience you had?"

No, the question is, how likely is it that you had it based on all of the information we have available, which includes how prevalent it was in NY in the weeks and months subsequent as well as your claimed symptoms. You almost certainly didn't have it. Not much else to say.

And who said "spreading through Chinatown"? It was "in" Chinatown. Its spread and footprint by then was obviously not big. But of course it wouldn't have to be for random people to randomly catch it.

If it was "in" Chinatown then it was spreading. It's nonsensical and inconsistent to say that because there were a few cases in *Wuhan* in November you likely caught it in New York in December, but the fact that there were a few cases in *Chinatown* in December doesn't mean it was spreading in New York at that time.
   3993. Howie Menckel Posted: April 02, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5936055)
Mnuchin is contradicting what Wa Po says is "an internal document" about timelines. so there we have it.
   3994. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: April 02, 2020 at 09:08 PM (#5936058)
Mnuchin says that checks will be going out in a matter of weeks and the IRS document says that checks will start going out in a couple of weeks. That isn't much contradiction.
   3995. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 02, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5936070)
Scored a 12-pack of TP today - Charmin “Mega Rolls”, said to be the equivalent of 48 standard rolls on the package. They were putting cases of it on the shelves when I was there, but it appeared to be the only TP available. Maybe just luck, but I prefer to think it’s a step toward a return to normalcy.
   3996. Karl from NY Posted: April 02, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5936089)
Why would it keep rising for 3-4 more weeks, if distancing makes a difference?

The peak means currently active cases, not daily new cases. The disease lasts up to 3-4 weeks. For the total active case count to go down, you need today's new cases to drop below the daily new cases 4 weeks prior.

Also the people who won't or can't distance will continue to catch it during those 3-4 weeks.
   3997. BrianBrianson Posted: April 03, 2020 at 12:51 AM (#5936095)
Mnuchin says that checks will be going out in a matter of weeks and the IRS document says that checks will start going out in a couple of weeks. That isn't much contradiction.


Yes, though they're trying to contradict a warning that "some" people will not get it for months. If it starts in "weeks", and they'" prioritising certain people, then it's pretty likely some will take "months". So, pointless partisanship, for the most part.


And if you guys have a clear sky, go out tonight about an hour after sunset and check out Venus (


You guys are going outside? </memes>
   3998. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2020 at 01:20 AM (#5936097)
The country has confirmed 2,700 infections and 93 deaths — 60 of them in Guayaquil and its immediate surroundings. But municipal officials there said they have recovered at least 400 bodies in recent days.
Not good. My guess is that this is already fairly common throughout the world, and we'll be hearing many more like it soon. We've already seen it happen in Iran--a country people stopped talking about weeks ago but no doubt has the highest deaths of anywhere in the world.

   3999. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2020 at 01:50 AM (#5936100)

AuntBea, since you seem to be very knowledgeable about this topic (what is your background, exactly? did I miss it at some point while lurking?), I ask this as a legitimate question: is zero transmission actually a good goal? Doesn't that just delay the inevitable, when we ultimately have to stop isolating, as a social species that eventually wants to start reproducing and acting human again??


No background. Just have been finding this a lot more interesting than my law job of late, and am also trying to share a little bit of numerical literacy with people I interact with, since there's a lot of total crap analysis around.


I look at the South Korea figures, and I'm both impressed and concerned. Less than 1% of their population has tested positive; when they start relaxing restrictions, are they any different than a country that hadn't had an outbreak yet, that isn't doing anything about it?
Basically no, but I would worry much more about everyone else. South Korea has found something they can probably do for the long haul. Maybe they'll slip a bit but they have a much better chance than other places. For example, I'd be surprised if NYC ever gets their infected rate down to where South Korea as at its peak, and we probably will get nowhere near that until something major changes. At least right now, it doesn't seem like a country can really test, trace and selectively quarantine their way through this unless they have only a very low level of cases in the community. I'm skeptical that we will be able to get down to that level in the US anywhere that has already has an outbreak, and we may need to essentially do it everywhere at once.

It's possible Germany's system of extensive testing and tracing worked kind of well when they had only a few cases, but maybe they couldn't keep pace with the spread and the dam eventually broke. In retrospect, they obviously went through a period of rapid spread starting at least a month ago.

Maybe it becomes much more efficient to do widespread testing and tracing, and maybe technological or social innovation makes it more efficient, in which case you can keep pace with a higher proportion of the population infected (1% for example, rather the .01%). It would be nice to see that.
   4000. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2020 at 02:10 AM (#5936105)
Was too busy today to check on Italy, but they were +760 (+6%), with +367 in Lombardy for almost 8000 (officially) dead. 1292 cases and 6837 test results, so only 19% positive out of these recent tests.
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