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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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Page 42 of 81 pages ‹ First  < 40 41 42 43 44 >  Last ›
   4101. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5936384)
viral bump
   4102. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:23 AM (#5936385)
Howie, she is my congressperson too. I'm in Pompton Lakes...how about you?

close enough to grab a beer at Thatcher McGhee's - in 2022. we should live so long.
   4103. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:40 AM (#5936388)
As I type this, they're showing 698,344 total tests in the U.S. (2,110 per 1 million people)
Looks like they already have updated. Now double that for number of tests, with no more positive, so 20% positive.
   4104. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:54 AM (#5936389)
Someone very close to my family has fatigue, a lot h grade fever, somewhat crunchy noises in their lungs and a pending Coronavirus test. #### just got real for me.


That's rough, smileyy. Were you/your family exposed?

I mentioned my sister-in-law's 4-year-old a few days back. The whole family is sick now, but the covid-19 test came back negative.
   4105. smileyy Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:07 AM (#5936392)
I don't want to say too much and divulge someone's health information but I'll let y'all know how the test turns out or if my immediate family shows symptoms.
   4106. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:49 AM (#5936393)
For China, it's very hard to tell if their undercounting of deaths in Wuhan was more or less similar to what we have seen in Europe (and likely will see here) or something more substantial. China would censor reports of more dead regardless, for internal propaganda reasons if nothing else, so we really can't tell from their actions after the fact. It seems fairly clear that the major problem they had in Wuhan has been pared way way back after the long lockdown.

Another interesting question is to what extent they are suppressing death/case reports in Wuhan and the rest of the country now. Is it actually circulating at the very low rates like they have been reporting, at higher but still manageable rates (per capita) something like South Korea, or at even higher rates, putting them at risk for another major outbreak? I haven't seen any reliable information on this.
   4107. Karl from NY Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:15 AM (#5936399)
Also not a doctor but, it seems to me, if people are contagious for a week before symptoms and a week after, an R0 of 2-3 is actually pretty low.

This is correct. If the average contagion period is 9 days and R0 is 3.0, then each infected person is spreading a new case only once every 3 days on average. It's not at all like the perception that one person walks into a store and boom a hundred people get it. It spreads so much because the incubation period is so long for so many interactions, not because the contagion per-interaction is particularly high (measles is higher.)
   4108. Swedish Chef Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:23 AM (#5936403)
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”
   4109. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:04 AM (#5936404)
This is correct. If the average contagion period is 9 days and R0 is 3.0, then each infected person is spreading a new case only once every 3 days on average. It's not at all like the perception that one person walks into a store and boom a hundred people get it. It spreads so much because the incubation period is so long for so many interactions, not because the contagion per-interaction is particularly high (measles is higher.)

I don't think that is a great way of looking at it. First of all, being contagious is not a binary condition. It is a spectrum. You will likely be vastly more contagious towards the middle of that period, than you are towards the fringes. Then you have the fact that the spread is on some level self-limiting. Once people get sufficiently sick, even without a lockdown, they tend to isolate because they are too sick to go out. So for any individual, the spread may well be clustered towards 1-2 days, rather than be evenly distributed across all 9 days, even if that is the period where they theoretically are contagious.

Secondly, the R0 of 3 or 2.4 or whatever it turns out to be, is an average. That doesn't mean that every single person transmits it to exactly 3 other people like clockwork. Some people are likely to reach higher peak levels of contagiousness than others, and be expelling many more viruses into the environment than others. We know a lot of people remain completely asymptomatic, and don't develop a cough that likely increases the level of contagiousness by several orders of magnitude.
Also, many people will not spread it to anyone, because they self-isolate, or are naturally fairly socially distanced. Or they only to family who then stay contained and don't pass it on. But some others will be running around in public being Typhoid Marys, and may be passing it on to dozens or even hundreds of people.
   4110. Greg K Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:37 AM (#5936409)
Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford,

I'm not sure I can trust a guy who passes up the opportunity to go by "Thomas" here.
   4111. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:08 AM (#5936410)
Of course it’s an average. To be safe, everyone should assume both that they’re contagious and that every encounter is with a contagious person. But to predict society wide outcome, it’s the average that matters.

It’s like the baseball season. The dodgers were going to win 95 or so games and the division. But that doesn’t tell you anything about the outcome of a their game on April 4.

   4112. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:45 AM (#5936413)
Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”


I'm very confused as to why a brand new and absolutely tiny sample of Chinese tests is considered "very important." 130 of 166, reported by China? What the ####? The Western world has now performed several million tests. It should take literally about 4 hours to surpass this sample in both size and reliability.

I also don't understand how the virus could be "everywhere" without a concomitant and easily observed death count. If it is everywhere, how do we explain the carnage in Lombardy and Madrid and Wuhan and NYC?
   4113. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5936414)
Meanwhile, my dystopian vision gets some life in Italy: In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies
   4114. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:32 AM (#5936416)
I'm not sure I can trust a guy who passes up the opportunity to go by "Thomas" here.

I assume Thomas is not as popular a historical figure in England as he is in the US.
   4115. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5936417)
I'm very confused as to why a brand new and absolutely tiny sample of Chinese tests is considered "very important." 130 of 166, reported by China? What the ####? The Western world has now performed several million tests. It should take literally about 4 hours to surpass this sample in both size and reliability.

I also don't understand how the virus could be "everywhere" without a concomitant and easily observed death count. If it is everywhere, how do we explain the carnage in Lombardy and Madrid and Wuhan and NYC?
Right. This is one of the dreams of the people that want to pretend that everyone who is going to die from this is already dead, so we might as well all go back to work already and save the economy. It's completely at odds with what we are seeing in Bergamo (now close to 0.5% of the entire population is dead there).
   4116. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:48 AM (#5936418)
AuntBea, I clicked a few times and found Professor Tom Jefferson's article, which is really an op-ed, and doesn't martial much evidence, nor does it give the impression that the author has really thought about this much. I got the feeling that he has an axe to grind on this issue.
   4117. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5936419)
Ok, now I just googled him:

THE MOST vocal—and undoubtedly most vexing—critic of the gospel of flu vaccine is the Cochrane Collaboration’s Jefferson ... Among his fellow flu researchers, Jefferson’s outspokenness has made him something of a pariah. At a 2007 meeting on pandemic preparedness at a hotel in Bethesda, Maryland, Jefferson, who’d been invited to speak at the conference, was not greeted by any of the colleagues milling about the lobby. He ate his meals in the hotel restaurant alone, surrounded by scientists chatting amiably at other tables...

“Tom Jefferson has taken a lot of heat just for saying, ‘Here’s the evidence: it’s not very good,’” says Majumdar. “The reaction has been so dogmatic and even hysterical that you’d think he was advocating stealing babies.” Yet while other flu researchers may not like what Jefferson has to say, they cannot ignore the fact that he knows the flu-vaccine literature better than anyone else on the planet. He leads an international team of researchers who have combed through hundreds of flu-vaccine studies. The vast majority of the studies were deeply flawed, says Jefferson. “Rubbish is not a scientific term, but I think it’s the term that applies.”


The Atlantic, years ago

Sounds like an interesting fellow. He advocates for doing placebo trials of flu vaccines, which almost everyone else considers unethical.

So he's either a genius maverick that's the only guy telling the truth about the whole thing ... or he's just a dick.

Either way, his little bit on COVID smacks very strongly of a guy that has a pre-determined spin on the issue and is looking for tiny scraps of evidence that support it.
   4118. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: April 04, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5936430)
Another issue with that tiny China study -- these are people flying into China. Presumably most people who are actively and obviously sick aren't going to get on an international flight at this stage in the game, or if they're obviously ill won't be allowed onto an international flight. So of course the vast majority of infected people flying into China are asymptomatic. The test set is pre-selected for asymptomatic people.

(It would be helpful to know how many of them are still asymptomatic a week after the test.)
   4119. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 10:59 AM (#5936439)
Spain

3/19   1326
3/20   1720   +398   +30%
3/23   2182   +462   +27%
3/24   2696   +514   +24%
3/25   3434   +738   +27%
3/26   4089   +655   +19%
3/27   4858   +769   +19%
3/28   5690   +832   +17%
3/29   6528   +838   +15%
3/30   7340   +812   +12%
3/31   8189   +849   +12%
4/01   9053   +864   +11%
4/02  10003   +950   +10%
4/03  10935   +932    +9%
4/04  11744   +809    +7%


Madrid (is this finally the beginning of the end of the first wave? Remains to be seen...)
Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
March 27     2412            322
March 28     2757            345
March 29     3082            325
March 30     3392            310
March 31     3603            215
April 01     3865            262
April 02     4175            310
April 03     4483            308
April 04     4723            240
   4120. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 04, 2020 at 10:59 AM (#5936440)
At this point, everyone should be treating this like it's Schrödinger's Virus.

Until you get a reliable antibody test, you have to assume that you haven't had the virus (by avoiding other people in case you catch it from them), but at the same time you have to assume that you have the virus (by avoiding other people and possibly passing it on because you are asymptomatic). You wear a mask and you do social distancing/sheltering-in-place because you both don't want to catch it AND you don't want to pass it on.
   4121. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5936442)
Of course it’s an average. To be safe, everyone should assume both that they’re contagious and that every encounter is with a contagious person. But to predict society wide outcome, it’s the average that matters.

It’s like the baseball season. The dodgers were going to win 95 or so games and the division. But that doesn’t tell you anything about the outcome of a their game on April 4.

The point is more that it isn't at all clear, that a single person can't spread it to large amounts of people, in a very short amount of time. Especially in confined spaces. We know from South Korea, that a single person refusing to isolate, is responsible for a vast, vast number of infections. Primarily by going to packed religious ceremonies. We know that Germany's good early outcomes were often attributed to the fairly young profile of victims, because they mostly stemmed from skiers coming back from Italy, who then passed it on to people at nightclubs. Etc.
   4122. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5936446)
Another issue with that tiny China study -- these are people flying into China. Presumably most people who are actively and obviously sick aren't going to get on an international flight at this stage in the game, or if they're obviously ill won't be allowed onto an international flight. So of course the vast majority of infected people flying into China are asymptomatic. The test set is pre-selected for asymptomatic people.

Right. And I don't see a denominator - how many COVID negative tests there were - so we have zero basis to determine that it's "everywhere."
   4123. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:26 AM (#5936449)
At this point, everyone should be treating this like it's Schrödinger's Virus.

that is brilliant, frankly.
   4124. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5936452)
meanwhile, all commissioners of major sports leagues are going on a conference call with Trump in 20 minutes.

what could go wrong?

btw NCAA is NOT on the call - because after all, that's just a bunch of students engaging in a little extracurricular activity as a way of blowing off steam between classes. ok, occasionally other students and alumni - up to 100,000 of them at at time - do stop by to enjoy the pastime.

best guess I've seen: Trump calls on all sports to resume on July 4 (including NFL training camps).

so much fireworks. so much winning. so much losing.

but mainly, so much winning. so much winning that we'll almost be sick of so much winning - that much winning.
   4125. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5936468)
or are naturally fairly socially distanced


Yay!

BBTF!!

#WINNING!!!
   4126. Jay Z Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5936471)
At this point, everyone should be treating this like it's Schrödinger's Virus.

Until you get a reliable antibody test, you have to assume that you haven't had the virus (by avoiding other people in case you catch it from them), but at the same time you have to assume that you have the virus (by avoiding other people and possibly passing it on because you are asymptomatic). You wear a mask and you do social distancing/sheltering-in-place because you both don't want to catch it AND you don't want to pass it on.


Yeah, I'm fine with that for now. April is just going to suck, I know it will, just take care of the sick, data gather and roadmap solutions. That's all we got for the present.
   4127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5936478)
Italy had the lowest increase in a while. Just the weekend?

+681 (officially) or +4.6%. Lombardy was +345, or +4.2%. 23% of the recent tests in Lombardy came back positive.

edit: and Spain will pass Italy in deaths per capita later today, and officially tomorrow after both countries' totals are announced. It's way past time to think of Italy as a special exception.
   4128. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5936479)
4118, 4122: And the point about who is and is not flying is basically the "healthy user effect" that TH and those who agree with him are using to question the flu vaccine's effectiveness.

I did find that Atlantic essay interesting and a "justification" for not getting the flu shot.
   4129. tshipman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5936480)
What is going on in the UK?

Worldometers lists them as having 41.9K cases and 4.3K deaths, for a death rate of over 10%. That implies that we're seeing as many as 10X cases as the official records.

The same is true of Spain and Italy. How are they still not testing enough people?
   4130. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5936483)
What is going on in the UK?

Isn't it pretty much they had an incredibly dumb "herd immunity" plan that they had to abandon, and now they're in the same place we were two weeks ago? Except they gave the virus even more time to spread before they got their stuff together.

Nobody in the West, except maybe Merkel, seems to have had a viable plan until they got hit in the face. Kinda like a reverse Mike Tyson.
   4131. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5936486)
The same is true of Spain and Italy. How are they still not testing enough people?
It's a big effort. They've been testing 6000 people a day in Lombardy out of 10 million. Total tested there is now is 142,000, about 1 in 70 people.

The problem is that it's likely up to a million or more people (10% or more) there now have, or previously had, the virus.
   4132. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5936488)
big one for sports people, given the noon conference call he had with all the pro sports commissioners

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
I will be holding a News Conference at 3:30 P.M. at the White House. Thank you!
   4133. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5936491)
big one for sports people, given the noon conference call he had with all the pro sports commissioners


need a president, get Don King.
   4134. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5936493)
What is going on in the UK?


Three main things:

1) Started from a weak position, with very few ventilators/ICU places compared to their peers, and a health service already running near capacity after a decade of under-investment
2) Not much testing, which is turning into a mini-scandal with even the Conservative-friendly media taking a swing at the government. The solution has been to set more aggressive targets further off, which doesn't help that much right now
3) Slow to start the suppression strategy, and unclear during it, with 'recommendations' not to go to pubs, gyms, etc., but actual prohibitions took longer to come down
   4135. DCA Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5936494)
Nobody in the West, except maybe Merkel, seems to have had a viable plan

To be fair, this is true of pretty much everything.
   4136. Swedish Chef Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5936496)
The same is true of Spain and Italy. How are they still not testing enough people?

Running testing takes personnel and PPE (as well as test kits which are in limited supply).
   4137. Swedish Chef Posted: April 04, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5936499)
France's statistics are completely wacky, they keep finding previously dead.
   4138. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5936500)
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
·
1m
NBA commissioner Adam Silver told those on Trump conference call that the leagues were the first to shut down and that they would love to lead the way in starting the economy once there was an “all clear” from public health officials, sources familiar with call told ESPN.

..............

Woj/Schefter tag team:

In a conference call with major league sports commissioners on Saturday, President Donald Trump said he believes the NFL season should start on time in September, sources familiar with the call told ESPN.

Trump also said he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.
   4139. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5936501)
"all clear"?
   4140. tshipman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5936502)
Adam Silver is much more likely to do the right thing than POTUS.
   4141. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5936503)
France's statistics are completely wacky, they keep finding previously dead.


Happening in the UK as well, for a long time the daily stats were only those dying in hospitals. Care homes are starting to report in, but their numbers are delayed.

EDIT: Further reading. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
   4142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5936505)
Good summary article about excess mortality data in a few countries, with links to government data. Upshot is that yes, as far as we can tell, deaths are being massively undercouunted, probably everywhere.
   4143. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5936507)
Adam Silver is much more likely to do the right thing than POTUS.


Quite probably, but he's only as good as the guidance he gets, and we've got a ratings-obsessed president. (That's not OT:P, it's verifiable fact.)

though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline


They're easily replaced.
   4144. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5936508)
My neighbors, an elderly couple in their 80s, are having their house painted. Teams of guys coming and going. I...am flabbergasted. He's been very careful not to approach any of us (a lot of us chat up and down the street and across the street) and has said he isn't going out for groceries.

But, he's had at least six different guys in his house today. I just don't get it. I asked what he was doing and he just said, "Painting."
   4145. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5936510)
Trump also said he hopes to have fans back in stadiums and arenas by August and September, sources said, though it is currently unclear if medical experts find that to be a realistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.

Bullshit. It is completely clear that medical experts find that to be a completely unrealistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.

Journalists need to stop coddling that narcissistic little manchild. Truth and facts are too important, especially in this current situation, to give your readers half-truths and allusions.
   4146. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5936511)
I think it's a foregone conclusion that society will, mostly, open up again long before end of summer. It probably shouldn't but there is no way a bunch of pols up for election in November are going to lock everyone in their homes until there is a vaccine.
   4147. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5936512)
There is a middle ground between locking everyone up, and green-lighting sporting events with 80,000 spectators.
   4148. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5936513)
A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission.


Follow them for three weeks and show me that they never became symptomatic and then we'll talk.

He advocates for doing placebo trials of flu vaccines, which almost everyone else considers unethical.


That's because it is unethical.
   4149. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5936514)
It is completely clear that medical experts find that to be a completely unrealistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.


New (in May, wait for it) CDC head Richard Epstein wishes to disagree.
   4150. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5936516)
I think it's a foregone conclusion that society will, mostly, open up again long before end of summer. It probably shouldn't but there is no way a bunch of pols up for election in November are going to lock everyone in their homes until there is a vaccine.
Could be. Even if so, I sure hope the government doesn't call the great reopening an "all clear" when it happens later this summer. That seems unwise.
   4151. Howie Menckel Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5936517)
Liz Habib
@LizHabib
·
7m
BREAKING NEWS: Gov. Gavin Newsom just said he doesn’t anticipate sports leagues starting up in September with full stadiums. (Contrary to reports of Trump expectations but maybe NFL is thinking empty stadiums?)
   4152. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5936518)
I think it's a foregone conclusion that society will, mostly, open up again long before end of summer.

I don't see much basis for the conclusion, but if that comes to pass, I'm guessing we'll learn about the effectiveness of masks.
   4153. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5936520)
My conclusion is political, not epidemiological.
   4154. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5936521)
Going back to some of the stuff on the last couple of pages...

1) We don't need a miracle cure, we just need reasonably effective treatments available in adequate supply. Not to rekindle the flu analogy, but Tamiflu and other anti-flu drugs aren't miracle cures. They do significantly reduce the duration of symptoms (and therefore morbidity and mortality) and accelerate clearance of the infection (and therefore reduce transmission).

2) If the convalescent plasma trial works out, then the best hope for a miracle drug any time soon is probably something along the lines of ZMapp for ebolavirus (a cocktail of human or humanized monoclonal antibodies that neutralize the virus).
   4155. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5936522)
Can't wait to see how quickly all the sports leagues shut down again as soon as the first player tests positive.
   4156. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5936523)
It is completely clear that medical experts find that to be a completely unrealistic timeline amid the current coronavirus pandemic.
I don’t see a complete list of public health officials completely ruling out such events 5 months ahead, nor have I seen most state & local officials making such claims, and the sports leagues themselves haven’t yet ruled out returning to action in 5 months. It may not happen, but claiming that it’s already “completely clear” that it won’t seems like an overbid.
   4157. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5936526)
"Medical experts" and "public officials" are (usually) different people. Fauci can't say "we need to lock down for 12+ months" without creating a total shitstorm, even if he absolutely believes it.
   4158. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5936527)
And the chorus is already in place to say the deaths are worth it. What better cause than football?
   4159. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5936531)
Football players already put their lives on the line for our entertainment; isn't it about time fans took some risk?
   4160. base ball chick Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:10 PM (#5936532)
hello boys

hope all yall and all yours are doing ok. we are all fine as far as we know

i'm worried about the people who catch the virus and have no symptoms and want to know if they are as contagious as people who have symptoms. as well as the fact that i understand that you are contagious a few days BEFORE you have any symptoms

i don't see how the country can stay shut down for 12+ months. too many people already out of $$$
   4161. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:32 PM (#5936536)
Everyone should pick a Taiwanese team now and get used to it. I call Brother Elephants!
   4162. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:32 PM (#5936537)
Fauci can't say "we need to lock down for 12+ months" without creating a total shitstorm, even if he absolutely believes it.
I doubt that Dr. Fauci believes that we should lockdown for 12+ months, or that we could successfully do so, but he’s about as free to speak his mind as anyone anywhere. He has over 50 years of government service, long ago maxed out his pension at more than 80% of his salary, and would be snapped up by a university or pharmaceutical company just for the prestige of his name if he were to leave government service.

The societal risk question brings to mind the old law school hypothetical about whether the U.S. should accept all the benefits of the automobile or ban it, knowing that the cost of the automobile would be 50,000 lives a year (about the number of auto accident fatalities at the time). Of course, retroactively banning the automobile was never a real possibility (relying on horses caused problems, too) but one’s approach to the hypothetical may have varied depending on whether you considered it as a mass-killing of 50K, or a slightly elevated risk of dying (~ 1/6,000) in exchange for the benefits of the automobile. Similarly:
So let's take a simplistic, intentionally skewed example: the government wishes to undertake an intervention that the best economists predict will lead to a permanent reduction in overall wealth of 10%, with vast unequal distribution of burdens, say shutting down all businesses for six months. The same person who would never acknowledge being willing to consign 100K people to death for "economic" reasons may very well be willing to accept, both personally and for the collective, a one in three thousand chance of dying (or a 3% average increase in the chance of dying) this year, or even a much higher risk, so that both society as a whole doesn't become significantly and permanently poorer, and some people (e.g., small business owners) don't lose everything.
I don’t know exactly where we should draw the lines, and it’s unlikely that decision-makers can get it exactly right or please everyone. The best case scenario might be that in another month or two we have a much better idea of what the trade-off would be, and thus what risks might be acceptable.
   4163. Sunday silence Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5936540)

"Medical experts" and "public officials" are (usually) different people. Fauci can't say "we need to lock down for 12+ months" without creating a total shitstorm, even if he absolutely believes it.


how is that disagreeing with what YC said? He's saying no one in medical/political field has come out and flat out said we wont be back to normal in Aug/Sept. I dont recall anyone saying that. Other than possibly Bill Gates I guess. So you agree with YC then?
   4164. Sunday silence Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5936542)
The same person who would never acknowledge being willing to consign 100K people to death for "economic" reasons may very well be willing to accept, both personally and for the collective, a one in three thousand chance of dying (or a 3% average increase in the chance of dying) this year, or even a much higher risk...


I get this analogy and do find it useful for further discussion. I think one problem at the outset though is that we dont all increase our risk by the same rate.

I for one, am probably willing at this pt. to risk an increase of 1/1000 chance of death this year if it means I wont be stuck in my house for 8 or 9 months. At the same time by doing that, I might be increasing the risk of my quite old neighbors by say 1/100. Is that fair to them? Is that acceptable?

These are very difficult problems that will in the end come down to political decisions. ALmost certainly before the year 2020 is out. Maybe by Sept or so, people will have to really think about this.
   4165. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5936543)
My conclusion is political, not epidemiological.

I still don't see it. You can go back a month in this thread, and you will see claims that we can't shut down all public events, and yet that's precisely what we did. The reason we did it isn't so much the POTUS told us (LOL) or even the governors told us. I mean, I'm going nuts, but I don't want to kill somebody's grandma. Behavior changes in the face of significant environmental change, and the main change has happened.
   4166. Tony S Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5936545)
I for one, am probably willing at this pt. to risk an increase of 1/1000 chance of death this year if it means I wont be stuck in my house for 8 or 9 months. At the same time by doing that, I might be increasing the risk of my quite old neighbors by say 1/100. Is that fair to them? Is that acceptable?


For a lot of people it's more like an extra 5-10% chance of death rather than an extra 0.1% chance of death.

And with automobiles, you personally can do things to minimize your risk chances -- drive carefully, drive defensively. With this virus, there's no way to minimize your chances of contracting it short of isolating yourself.
   4167. Srul Itza Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5936546)
Finished my first experience teaching my Construction Law course by Zoom. 12 out of 16 students showed up. The chat feature and the PowerPoint presentation worked.

Four more classes to go.
   4168. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5936548)
Good for you, Srul. For me, it is disorienting being tethered to a laptop, but it gets done & students are forgiving.
   4169. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5936549)
With this virus, there's no way to minimize your chances of contracting it short of isolating yourself.
There are a number of mitigation measures short of total isolation (social distancing, increased hand washing & disinfecting, avoiding face-touching, wearing a mask, limiting activities, etc) that will reduce your chances of contracting the virus, or experiencing a high-dose exposure to the virus. It’s not an all or nothing situation.
   4170. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5936550)
I doubt that Dr. Fauci believes that we should lockdown for 12+ months, or that we could successfully do so, but he’s about as free to speak his mind as anyone anywhere. He has over 50 years of government service, long ago maxed out his pension at more than 80% of his salary, and would be snapped up by a university or pharmaceutical company just for the prestige of his name if he were to leave government service.


Oh please. Sure, if Dr. Fauci creates a total shitstorm, he could have a comfortable retirement and probably a generous sinecure ... after he's been engulfed by said shitstorm, and his name forever inextricably associated with a generation-defining recession.

The point is that academics are absolutely free to say "if we don't lockdown until there's a vaccine, even if that takes more than a year, millions will die," and many have said exactly that. Public health officials, governors, and the commissioners of major sports leagues will naturally be more cautious in their public statements, for obvious reasons.

And of course, the academics might be wrong. There's still much to learn about this thing. It's good for our public health officials to be more circumspect.

I don’t know exactly where we should draw the lines, and it’s unlikely that decision-makers can get it exactly right or please everyone. The best case scenario might be that in another month or two we have a much better idea of what the trade-off would be, and thus what risks might be acceptable.


Yes. I agree. The trade-off analysis is difficult to perform and difficult to grasp intuitively. But it's something that the big decision makers will need to grapple with.
   4171. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5936555)
Fauci also has to be cognizant of his boss's record of pliable idiot replacements.
   4172. Jay Z Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5936556)
For a lot of people it's more like an extra 5-10% chance of death rather than an extra 0.1% chance of death.

And with automobiles, you personally can do things to minimize your risk chances -- drive carefully, drive defensively. With this virus, there's no way to minimize your chances of contracting it short of isolating yourself.


Yeah, in these early days, there's really not much more we can do. That choir practice where 45 out of 60 got the virus, 2 died, that seems VERY repeatable. Kind of knocks out a lot of behavior in the short term.

In the long term... a year from now I expect us to be in a different place. This is a serious deal, but some of these problems are solvable. Testing, masks... churn 'em out. That shouldn't be a problem down the road. Treatment, vaccine... keep working on it. Study what are REALLY the high risk events and what aren't. I am not going to be too critical of re-openings that need to be shut down, that is just a reality. As I said in another post, time marches on, and as the months march on we need to ask what we keep and what we discard. Does every person over 75 stay under glass for the rest of their lives?
   4173. tshipman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5936557)
In theory at least, we don't need a 12 month shutdown, more like a 12 week shutdown.

Hubei province was shut down for just about 8 weeks, I believe.
   4174. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5936558)
In theory at least, we don't need a 12 month shutdown, more like a 12 week shutdown.

Hubei province was shut down for just about 8 weeks, I believe.


Well, Hubei was just one place. It's everywhere in the US now.

But otherwise, the 12 weeks only works if we implement extraordinary testing & tracing and if people comply when an entire family is asked to self-isolate for 2 weeks because one of them sat next to someone on a bus. I'm hopeful, but, I don't know...
   4175. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5936559)
Forget public transportation if you don't want the virus spreading like wildfire. Can't do it.

This is a major nuisance in most U.S. cities. It's a total showstopper in NYC. It's a big problem.
   4176. Tony S Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5936560)
But otherwise, the 12 weeks only works if we implement extraordinary testing & tracing and if people comply when an entire family is asked to self-isolate for 2 weeks because one of them sat next to someone on a bus. I'm hopeful, but, I don't know...


It has the best chance of working if people's financial needs are taken care of during that time. If people are forced to break the quarantine so they can pay their rent, then no, it won't happen.

$1,200 per person isn't going to do it.
   4177. tshipman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5936563)
Well, Hubei was just one place. It's everywhere in the US now.

But otherwise, the 12 weeks only works if we implement extraordinary testing & tracing and if people comply when an entire family is asked to self-isolate for 2 weeks because one of them sat next to someone on a bus. I'm hopeful, but, I don't know...


If you have the whole country on lockdown, it could work. You have to say zero travel, zero unnecessary work.

If you had done it 3 weeks ago, you could have saved thousands upon thousands.
   4178. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:35 PM (#5936564)
That China was (apparently) able to totally quash the epidemic within its borders is still almost beyond belief.

I don't believe that the country could possibly hide it if the bug were still killing thousands. The story of its success must be largely true.

I know that they were able to mobilize resources in a way that Western nations cannot, and could employ autocratic measures that Western nations will not, but still. It's still almost beyond belief. If Wuhan has enough back-and-forth traffic with Lombardy to quickly cause a local epidemic, just imagine the connections Wuhan had with Beijing and Shanghai and everywhere else.

It's so beyond belief that it actually suggests that we're making some fundamental mistake in our understanding of the virus. In my humble opinion.
   4179. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5936565)
If you have the whole country on lockdown, it could work. You have to say zero travel, zero unnecessary work.
It’s a big country, with vast differences in population density and virus risk. A one-size-fits-all total lockdown wouldn’t be appropriate everywhere.
   4180. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5936569)
That China was (apparently) able to totally quash the epidemic within its borders is still almost beyond belief. I don't believe that the country could possibly hide it if the bug were still killing thousands. The story of its success must be largely true.
China lied repeatedly about the Wuhan virus, insisting for months that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission even as family members, close contacts, and health care workers kept getting the virus. China not only lied, they also arrested and threatened folks trying to get the truth out, and shut down some prominent Western news outlets, too. Might be a reason you’re only hearing good news now, but that doesn’t seem like much of a reason to believe it.
   4181. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5936570)
China lied repeatedly about the Wuhan virus, insisting for months that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission even as family members, close contacts, and health care workers kept getting the virus. China not only lied, they also arrested and threatened folks trying to get the truth out, and shut down some prominent Western news outlets, too. Might be a reason you’re only hearing good news now, but that doesn’t seem like much of a reason to believe it.


There are still a zillion Westerners in China, there are spies, there are Twitter users, there are dissidents, etc. Our satellites can tell us when nations dig mass graves and when they build new hospitals, and sometimes we even read about it in the newspaper. It's a safe bet that China is lying about all sorts of things, primarily to their own people, probably. But I don't believe that they could perfectly hide an epidemic of the type of huge scale that almost anybody would have expected to develop. Do you?
   4182. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5936571)
There are several reports that U.S. intelligence agencies believe China is vastly understating the number of new cases & deaths, while overstating the tests conducted. If, as you say, China’s claims seem beyond belief, maybe they are. Consider the source.
   4183. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5936572)
China lied repeatedly about the Wuhan virus, insisting for months that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission even as family members, close contacts, and health care workers kept getting the virus.


This is a huge oversell. No human to human transmission lasted about a week, not months. Same for only old people with preexisting conditions get pneumonia. China HAS lied repeatedly, and is almost certainly still lying. On the other hand, western goverments, including our own, haven't exactly been paragons of transparency either.
   4184. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:32 PM (#5936575)
Also YC, consider that stuff you're reading in the NYT today was in POTUS' daily intel briefing back in January.
   4185. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5936576)
There are several reports that U.S. intelligence agencies believe China is vastly understating the number of new cases & deaths, while overstating the tests conducted. If, as you say, China’s claims seem beyond belief, maybe they are. Consider the source.


Yep, I've read that. Did you? The article does not describe a massive coordinated effort to obscure entire epidemics that are now unknown to the outside world. It mostly describes mid-level bureaucratic obfuscation, as well as some of the same honest accounting difficulties that Western countries are struggling with.

It does suggest that an additional 2,000-3,000 might have died in Wuhan that aren't in the official numbers. But if COVID had spread to the rest of the country and done the type of damage that we believe it's capable of, we'd probably be talking about hundreds of thousands of corpses by now.

When Wuhan was in the ####, China migrated tens of thousands of medical personnel, isolated the city, and built entire hospitals in days. Do you imagine that this sort of thing is happening all across the country today and that nobody knows about it? Or that they've changed strategies and are just quietly murdering COVID patients, perhaps?
   4186. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5936578)
This is a huge oversell. No human to human transmission lasted about a week, not months.
Sure about that? There are references to China making such claims from early December to late January. Many are in Chinese, but’s here’s an example of them lying to the World Health Organization in mid-January:
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
Jan 14
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China
China knew that wasn’t true, but they were arresting people who tried to tell the truth.
   4187. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:47 PM (#5936579)
Not to go OTP
But, I made te mistake of watcing todays briefing
Im officially ... terrified.
   4188. Zonk is Dominating the Battlespace Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5936580)
It’s everyones duty to watch the briefings.

Experts fear we my be in for a rough week- ratings may fall from Bachelor levels down to Skating with Celebrities levels... and if they fall to Born in the Wild or the Dating Life of Honey Boo Boo’s liposuctioned Mom levels?

All hope would be lost. It is critical we keep the ratings up.
   4189. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5936581)
This is a huge oversell. No human to human transmission lasted about a week, not months.

Sure about that? There are references to China making such claims from early December to late January. Many are in Chinese, but’s here’s an example of them lying to the World Health Organization in mid-January:

World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
Jan 14
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China


Well, that evidence --preliminary investigation -- does not look like months. MAybe there is evidence; that ain't it.
   4190. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5936582)
It’s everyones duty to watch the briefings.

Oh, hell no. I gotta be sober enough to teach later in the day. I'll stick with print news coverage.
   4191. tshipman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5936585)
The fact that Yankee Clapper keeps calling it the "Wuhan virus" should indicate that he's not arguing in good faith.
   4192. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:09 PM (#5936587)
I wanted to post this in case it hasn't been mentioned:
Science Magazine: You may be able to spread coronavirus just by breathing, new report finds

Anyone who has done a curbside pickup, did an employee come to your car window? We did one and the employee just put the stuff in the trunk like he was supposed to. But then we did another one, and the employee came to the window. My wife rolled the window down out of habit, because we hadn't thought through what to do if it happened. The employee even leaned into the car to hand her one of the bags, which I'm sure isn't the store policy. So now we're scared to do that again. We're already terrified, because she has increased risk factors.
   4193. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:20 PM (#5936590)
Well, that evidence --preliminary investigation -- does not look like months. MAybe there is evidence; that ain't it.
So you think that China didn’t know that there was human-to-human transmission by January 14, six weeks after the first case? Really? They were medically incompetent and didn’t notice that family members, close contacts, and health care workers were getting the virus? So, they were arresting and threatening whistleblowers because they really thought they were enemies of the state just making up lies? Seems like one would have to be pretty gullible, or a willing dupe, to believe that, but I suppose anything is possible. There are more articles I could link to that document China claiming that here was no evidence of human-to-human transmission, but then some might say I was politicizing the thread. Those interested should be able to find the info on their own.
   4194. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5936591)
It’s a big country, with vast differences in population density and virus risk. A one-size-fits-all total lockdown wouldn’t be appropriate everywhere.


Nope, just where the bulk of the economy and all the ML sports teams are.
   4195. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:24 PM (#5936594)
Curbside where I grabbed a pizza meant you walk in the door and there's a table with the pickup orders on them.
Curbside at the local Total Wine, meant walk into the store and wait 5 minutes for someone to come to pre-order and take you through the process. Won't make that mistake again.
   4196. Tony S Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5936596)
Nope, just where the bulk of the economy and all the ML sports teams are.


Well, the more sparsely populated parts of the country also have fewer and less advanced hospitals and medical facilities, so they're more vulnerable that way. And certain states have governors who remain way behind the curve on action. I don't think any particular part of the country is going to get off easy.
   4197. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5936597)
The fact that Yankee Clapper keeps calling it the "Wuhan virus" should indicate that he's not arguing in good faith.
You beclown yourself. I’ve used a variety of terms for the virus, including “Wuhan Virus”, but the New York Times called it the Wuhan Virus as did the Washington Post and numerous other news outlets. Now some have changed their tune after China objected, but many of those news outlets publish paid Chinese propaganda formatted to resemble news articles, while I don’t. How do you feel about Spanish Flu, West Nile Virus, and Lime Disease? Naming an illness by the location at which it first appears is as old as the hills.
   4198. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:31 PM (#5936598)
Nobody's disputed that China has lied, and will continue to lie. This country has ####### internment camps for Uighers, the government is outrageously immoral. The question is whether or not they could possibly be hiding tens of thousands of deaths. I contend that they cannot. And an unfortunate tweet by the WHO in January doesn't really address that question.
   4199. SoSH U at work Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5936599)
How do you feel about Spanish Flu, West Nile Virus, and Lime Disease?


The latter goes goes well with Corona virus.
   4200. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: April 04, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5936600)
Spanish Flu

You mean te flu tat orginated in Kansas?
Tat our government ten lied about?
Yea Id figure Youd be good wit tat
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