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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   4601. Tony S Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:26 PM (#5937424)

Hmmm.

So do the states need to take the lead, or not?
   4602. Mefisto Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5937425)
I've been also thinking lately about what it would take for a virus to really cause like a Mad Max level apocalypse. Something that mutates as fast as AIDS, that spreads as easily as the Flu, and that is deadly as like, I dunno, Hanta Virus or something would probably do the trick right?


A virus like that would be very unusual from an evolutionary standpoint. It would quickly use up all its hosts and thereby stop its own spread. In general, the more lethal a virus is, the less contagious, and vice versa.
   4603. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5937426)
Hmmm.

So do the states need to take the lead, or not?


The Liberty Valence theory of federal intervention?
   4604. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5937428)
The thing to remember about the hemorrhagic fever viruses is that they all have animal hosts that they happily coexist with. Hantavirus doesn't kill half of tbe rodents it infects. Ebolavirus doesn't kill half of the bats.
   4605. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5937430)
As to drugs, I think we should be getting some trial data on remedisvir very soon, right?
   4606. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:51 PM (#5937433)
Also, just saw Murphy closed the state parks in New Jersey. That seems dumb and counterproductive to me. What's a lower risk activity right now than hiking in the woods?
   4607. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5937434)
Yeah, first Remedesivir results might come out this week.
   4608. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5937436)
I've been also thinking lately about what it would take for a virus to really cause like a Mad Max level apocalypse. Something that mutates as fast as AIDS, that spreads as easily as the Flu, and that is deadly as like, I dunno, Hanta Virus or something would probably do the trick right?

Boy, do I have a game for you.
   4609. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 07, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5937437)
They just closed the HS tracks and fields where I live because people using them were refusing to follow social distancing guidelines. Also issued a warning that the parks will be next if folks don't stay at least six feet apart when using them.
   4610. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:01 PM (#5937438)
Also, just saw Murphy closed the state parks in New Jersey. That seems dumb and counterproductive to me. What's a lower risk activity right now than hiking in the woods?

playing animal crossing on a switch.
Hmmm.

So do the states need to take the lead, or not?
"time for some traffic problems in fort lee"
   4611. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5937440)
I've been also thinking lately about what it would take for a virus to really cause like a Mad Max level apocalypse. Something that mutates as fast as AIDS, that spreads as easily as the Flu, and that is deadly as like, I dunno, Hanta Virus or something would probably do the trick right?

nah. all you have to do is destroy the food supply, and then people will inevitably destroy themselves. #monsanto.
   4612. Jay Z Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5937442)
All animals have potential virus issues, I guess look at the animal kingdom?

Passenger pigeons are rumoured to have had virus issues. Then again, a sky full of flying rats might have made me get out the shotgun as well. In addition to the fact that they only seemed happy in their huge groups, which causes diversity issues for survival.

So other than animals which have limited habitats and other issues, that's where I would look.
   4613. Howie Menckel Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:15 PM (#5937445)
re NJ and parks:

Bergen County parks closed a couple of weeks ago, which made sense. they tend to be not as large as the ones to the west, and the ones that are big typically get HUGE crowds on a nice day. like, 'you may not find a parking spot in this big lot' huge.

a bit to the west, the parks tend to get bigger (and hillier) yet the crowds are smaller and the percentage of visitors who are hiking is larger.

the one I visit - not sure if it's a county park or municipal. the latter are up to "local officials" whether to close. I don't think this one needs to do that. last 3 visits, I had no difficulty staying 20+ feet away from everybody. the only "offense" I saw was 5 dopey teenage boys a little too close together as they chatted. and closing that park would just mean they do the exact same thing somewhere else.

ultimately I think it's a springtime issue.

people in Bergen County - who are way more likely to be carrying the virus - might well know of a state or county park 25 miles away and go for a drive. but they are less likely to be aware of a municipal park, and figure it's not worth the effort to find one even as the weather turns lovely.
   4614. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:34 PM (#5937446)
Murphy closed the state parks in New Jersey. That seems dumb and counterproductive to me. What's a lower risk activity right now than hiking in the woods?
In theory, yes, and it should have been the same for beaches. Easy to distance oneself when you’re in the wide open spaces - but apparently some don’t. I think people are probably overreacting to the some of this - the people violating the 6 foot rule may be living together - but politicians are making these decisions, and they’re sensitive to optics, and the public mood seems to lean ‘better safe than sorry’ at the moment, at least in the hotspots.
   4615. Mefisto Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5937450)
Yikes. This paper says that R0 for the virus was 5.7 in Wuhan.
   4616. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 07, 2020 at 07:52 PM (#5937451)
Paris has banned daytime outdoor exercise (between 10 am and 7 pm) after people were generally defying the lockdown orders in the parks this past weekend. The previous rules had allowed people to run / exercise outdoors within 1 km of their residence. The goal is to get people off the streets when they are otherwise at their most busy with people who otherwise need to be out there for grocery shopping, getting to essential work, etc.
   4617. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5937452)
[The last 24 hours] have brought two new proposals. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday that MLB is focused on a plan to play its entire season in Arizona, with protocols in place to keep umpires at a safe distance from the players and the players sitting 6 feet apart in the empty stands rather than sharing a dugout. (The plan doesn’t specify how MLB will combat baseball players’ tendencies to constantly spit, rub their hands all over the ball, and repeatedly touch their faces.) On Monday, UFC president Dana White said that he’s close to purchasing a private island on which he could host prized international fights; as Spencer Hall points out, this is more or less the plot of the 1973 Bruce Lee film Enter the Dragon.
But these ideas may also have backing from entities with no revenue at stake: governments. ... (No government official from any nation has condoned Dana White’s Secret Bloodsport Island.)

link
   4618. Howie Menckel Posted: April 07, 2020 at 08:17 PM (#5937456)
welp, my park is a county park after all.

1,500 acres and 9 miles of hiking trails. but you know what, I'm good with it anyway.

let's kill this motherfocker.
   4619. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 07, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5937458)
Houston Audubon
@HoustonAudubon

Due to the extension of stay home orders in Harris and Galveston counties and the safety of our staff, volunteers, and visitors, our offices and sanctuaries will remain closed through April 30, 2020.
   4620. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 07, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5937460)
Denmark announces a phased re-opening of schools beginning next week:
Denmark's government has announced plans to reopen kindergartens and schools for children up until the age of 11, as it takes the first steps in a gradual lifting of the country's coronavirus lockdown. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the government was opening schools for students up until class five first, because the requirement to care for them represented a greater burden on society .
. . .
The government said that adults, who on March 12 were asked to work from home if at all possible, could now start to return to their workplaces more often if they took care to "follow the general guidelines on appropriate behaviour".
. . .
Older children from class six (11-12) until class ten (15-16) will be able to return to school at the earliest on May 10, Frederiksen said, as will pupils in upper secondary school. As a result, all end of term exams for pupils will be cancelled. Churches, libraries, and club premises for sports and other activities will also be closed until at least May 10, as will shopping centres.
At the moment, Denmark ranks just one place lower than the U.S on per capita coronavirus deaths by country, 35.0 to 39.1 per million.
   4621. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5937461)
I continue to have a hard time believing lockdown will last longer than another month in the U.S. Too many people are going to refuse to abide by it, there won't be the police or political will to arrest everyone that doesn't (and if there were mass arrests/fines, there would be civil unrest and rioting, IMO), and small-to-medium businesses, once they reach the point where continuing to abide by a government order to stay closed means being forced into bankruptcy and out of business, will open in defiance of the orders as a Hail Mary in the hope they can eventually win a lawsuit over it, calculating that they have nothing to lose. And the many people who stand to permanently lose their jobs will support it.

There are a lot of people who don't have anywhere near the savings to weather months of unemployment, and to put it kindly and mildly, government assistance of these people has been haphazard and unreliable. That's apart from the (IMO) real and serious issue that extroverts will generally begin to go crazy from the isolation as we approach two, three months of it (and with the restrictions tightening by the week). It can't last much longer.

I want to be careful to say I am not arguing as to whether it should or shouldn't last; just saying I greatly doubt that it can, at least in the U.S. I hope our "leaders" and hospital administrators are at least cognizant of this possibility and preparing as best they can for the catastrophic overcrowding that may well be yet to come.
   4622. Mefisto Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:15 PM (#5937463)
I think it'll vary from state to state, depending on when it was first imposed and how bad conditions are at the time. For example, I can't see NY lifting the restrictions right now, nor do I think people expect it. In CA and WA, the shutdowns seem to be working well enough now that there can be relaxation in 2-3 weeks. Other states are just getting started so we'll have to wait and see.

ETA: The big hope is that we can get the blue states running. They're the economic engines for the country.
   4623. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5937465)
The rona got John Prine. :(
   4624. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5937466)
Fun experiment:

Allan Randrup Thomsen, Professor in the Department of Immunology at Copenhagen University, said that the decision to reopen was risky.

"We do not know how big the infection pressure is among smaller children," he told Danish state broadcaster DR. They are holding the binoculars to their blind eye. It may be that the epidemic starts to take off again."

Mølbak said his mathematical model had found that only 1.8 percent of children had probably been infected with coronavirus, while his institute believed between 10 and 11 percent of adults had been.


TFA Doesn't say what the modeling is based on.
   4625. Tony S Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:35 PM (#5937468)
The rona got John Prine. :(

I knew I shouldn't have checked this thread before going to bed :(
   4626. baxter Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5937470)
you can gaze out the window get mad and get madder throw your hands in the air say what does it matter but it don't do not good to get angry so help me I know
RIP Mr.Prine
   4627. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5937473)
I can't see NY lifting the restrictions right now, nor do I think people expect it
New York has more coronavirus deaths than the next 11 states combined, and a per capita death rate more than twice that of any other state. Not going to be easy to lift restrictions there, although it may be easier in Upstate NY, or parts thereof. I believe NYC is far worse off.

EDIT: Here’s some NYS coronavirus data by county.
   4628. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5937474)
Yikes. This paper says that R0 for the virus was 5.7 in Wuhan.

Everything I've read about Wuhan says that once they got their #### together, the Chinese government viewed Wuhan as their Stalingrad. It's still locked down as hard as most American cities, although they just announced they are unsealing the city.
   4629. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5937475)
I continue to have a hard time believing lockdown will last longer than another month in the U.S.
the earlier the lockdown is reversed, the more likely it is to be reinstated.
small-to-medium businesses, once they reach the point where continuing to abide by a government order to stay closed means being forced into bankruptcy and out of business, will open in defiance of the orders as a Hail Mary in the hope they can eventually win a lawsuit over it, calculating that they have nothing to lose. And the many people who stand to permanently lose their jobs will support it.

any business that is on the brink of bankruptcy will be ###### over whether or not they reopen prematurely.

if you figure that reopening will get them ~60-ish% of their pre-pandemic revenue, that's not enough to stave off bankruptcy. at that point, it's like rolling over payday loans: even if it lets you live hand to mouth for an extra two or three months, as you do it, the interest on what you owe piles up, and soon enough, you lose everything anyway.


i'm not even close to an expert on this, but my inclination would be to file for bankruptcy protection as soon as possible, and try to discharge as much as debt as you can while these lockdowns are in place. my guess is that courts (whenever they reopen) will be fairly forgiving for businesses** that are driven into bankruptcy because of the pandemic, so if owners can protect their core business until this subsides, they may be able to come out of this in pretty solid shape.


** for businesses that file for bankruptcy. people who get driven into bankruptcy will, of course, get ###### over seven ways from sunday.
   4630. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:45 PM (#5937477)
** for businesses that file for bankruptcy. people who get driven into bankruptcy will, of course, get ###### over seven ways from sunday.


Instead of pandemic advice, the president should be giving advice on bankruptcy. That’s something he has plenty of experience with.
   4631. Jay Z Posted: April 07, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5937483)
the earlier the lockdown is reversed, the more likely it is to be reinstated.


I have said that restrictions are going to be lifted way before 18 months or anything. I have even said they will be raised earlier than appropriate in places and I'm "okay" with that, I understand mistakes are going to be made.

But I'm really not going to be on the front line patronizing your business. I'll leave that to someone else. See how things go. Someone else wants to rush back first thing, that's up to them.

I care about my kids, my mom, my girlfriend. I miss some of the other stuff, will enjoy it when it feels safe again, but I'll make it right now. Because I value my health and my life more than that.

I'm in Wisconsin, so I know all about "leaders" who don't give a rat's ass whether I live or die. I'm still working. I know I could lose my job too. Whether I do, whether any of us do, is bigger than what I can do.

But where there is life, there is hope. Sickness, death, not so much. If I feel that business owners are breaking laws, stamping their feet to open again when it's not safe, #### that ####. I really don't need you, your non essential business, at all. And if that's what you stand for, I won't be back at all.
   4632. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2020 at 11:33 PM (#5937486)
South Korea crude CFR is almost up to 2%.
   4633. Karl from NY Posted: April 07, 2020 at 11:48 PM (#5937488)
I continue to have a hard time believing lockdown will last longer than another month in the U.S.

I have no problem believing this. Nobody that has issued any sort of lockdown can risk lifting it until cases drop to like 1% of current levels -- which is nowhere in foreseeable sight until we get to the endpoint of 70% herd immunity or vaccine. Lockdown orders may be increasingly ignored or defied, but they aren't going away for what could easily be all year.
   4634. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:27 AM (#5937489)
Of current levels where? tri0state NY, yeah, but Houston/Harris County has 23 total deaths and 1,820 active cases across about 4.8 million people. I'd expect that by a month from mow there will be phased lifting of restrictions.
   4635. puck Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:34 AM (#5937490)
FWIW, the IMHE model had CO's peak on 4/3, with 113 patients on ventilators. The CO hospital association said as of today that the state "has nearly four times that many patients already using a ventilator." Deaths went up by 29, the biggest daily jump, and hospitalizations are still increasing.
   4636. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:43 AM (#5937491)
Thanks puck. Happy thought for bed. ;)
   4637. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:45 AM (#5937492)
I've been also thinking lately about what it would take for a virus to really cause like a Mad Max level apocalypse. Something that mutates as fast as AIDS, that spreads as easily as the Flu, and that is deadly as like, I dunno, Hanta Virus or something would probably do the trick right?
You would also need a pretty long period in which patients are asymptomatic yet contagious.
   4638. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:57 AM (#5937493)
there has been a lot of talk among the sports leagues executives about, at some point, saluting the medical community for their heroics at numerous "back to normal" games a la the Mets/Yankees wearing hats of NYPD, FDNY, and other heroes after 9-11.

I love the idea - for Dad the retired fireman then, and for nephew the doctor and niece the ER nurse now (and yeah, that's kind of the American Dream).

it's all almost perfect. but not complete. so many other Americans are also playing a role in keeping this scenario from being a lot worse than it is.

put some of them on the field, and on the court, when the time comes, as well.

a salute to grocery store workers

SAN FRANCISCO — While the worsening coronavirus pandemic has shuttered most businesses nationwide to promote social distancing, grocery stores have remained open, putting their employees on the frontlines in a public health emergency.

A worker at Steve’s C-Town in Park Slope, Brooklyn, who spoke to Yahoo News on the condition of anonymity, said he doesn’t think the supermarket is taking the health of its employees or customers seriously.

“To be honest, I don’t think we’re doing much,” the worker, who is in his 20s, said. “They don’t tell us to do any precautions. I try to wear gloves and I’m trying to order a mask.”
   4639. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:57 AM (#5937494)
You would also need a pretty long period in which patients are asymptomatic yet contagious.
Yet spares post-punk fashion designers!
   4640. BrianBrianson Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:09 AM (#5937495)
Paris has banned daytime outdoor exercise (between 10 am and 7 pm) after people were generally defying the lockdown orders in the parks this past weekend.


This is a way oversell. Parks are locked, so no one was there. Foot traffic on the streets is way, way down, though there are still people in the streets, the vast majority of whom certainly seem to be complying with the order, if you include that we're allowed to grocery shop, do a bit of jogging near the house, walk the dog, etc. They felt the number of people on the streets was still too high, but the lockdown measures are very popular in France (and of course Paris is 10 million people, even 99.9% compliance would be ten thousand people not complying)

Technically I live in Hauts-de-Seine, but we also got the outdoor exercise is restricted to nighttime, and takeaways have to close earlier modifications. So I expect it's pretty much the same. There's certainly no wide scale breaking of the lockdown, though it's easy to relax (and honestly, I'm probably far more relaxed about grocery shopping than I was the first time I went).
   4641. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:25 AM (#5937496)
“The WHO... receives vast amounts of money from the United States, and uh, we pay for a majority of, the biggest portion of their money,” Trump said. “And they, uh, actually criticized and disagreed with my travel ban at the time I did it, and they were wrong. They’ve been wrong about a lot of things.... they seem to be very China-centric.”

“And we have to look into that, so we’re gonna look into it... because they really are, uh, they called it wrong. they called it wrong,” Trump added. “They really, they missed the call. They could have called it months earlier, they would have known, and uh, they should have known, and they probably did know... We’re gonna put a hold on money spent to the WHO, we’re gonna put a very powerful hold on it, and we’re gonna see.”
####### shitheel dumbcunt.
   4642. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:07 AM (#5937497)
4641L It's simple, really. People are dying here and the closings are hurting the economy. He was told this was a real threat in January and denied it would ever be a problem, unlike the WHO. The conclusion has to be that it's their fault. Who else could possibly responsible?
   4643. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:28 AM (#5937498)
The comparison between Sweden and Norway may be worth monitoring to see how 'strong lock-down' versus 'weak social distancing' plays. While we will never have such a thing as a controlled sample for these cases, Norway and Sweden are pretty darn close, though Norway is somewhat less populated and wealthier.
   4644. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:57 AM (#5937499)
Reuters: Special Report: Johnson listened to his scientists about coronavirus - but they were slow to sound the alarm

If unconstrained and if the virus behaved as in China, up to four-fifths of Britons could be infected and one in a hundred might die, wrote the scientists, members of an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, on March 2. Their assessment didn’t spell it out, but that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million.

Yet the next day, March 3, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was his cheery self. He joked that he was still shaking hands with everyone, including at a hospital treating coronavirus patients.
...
The upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak, a Reuters investigation has found.
...
But the interviews and documents also reveal that for more than two months, the scientists whose advice guided Downing Street did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the public or the government. Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak.


Concerning reporting from the UK that inconsistent or fatalistic scientific assessments, including 'Britons just won't follow lockdown processes' assumptions that narrowed the thinking considerably. (Also worth noting that some of the sources for the story are Conservative politicians, so perhaps motivated to see this narrative shared.) Definitely implies an ossification of the processes around the UK response, though.
   4645. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 08, 2020 at 07:12 AM (#5937504)
How ###### are you once you need to be put on a ventilator?
   4646. Ron J Posted: April 08, 2020 at 07:20 AM (#5937505)
#4645 Depends on other factors, which is which if they run short they triage.

A pretty decent number survive. There are long-term health issues for the survivors though.
   4647. Ron J Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:06 AM (#5937510)
There was an interesting article I read that says that while the focus is on deaths, there seems to be a consensus among statisticians that hospitalisations provide the most signal in terms of where we're at.

With the caveat that this information is always dated.
   4648. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5937513)
Generally, you are very ###### once you're put on a ventilator. Like 86% ######. But that's for all comers, and most people who go on one have a ####-ton of other meducal issues aside from breathing.
   4649. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:25 AM (#5937516)
Spain is still on the rebound, but it's not looking like the immediate drop-off predicted by IHME.
3/19   1326
3/20   1720   +398   +30%
3/23   2182   +462   +27%
3/24   2696   +514   +24%
3/25   3434   +738   +27%
3/26   4089   +655   +19%
3/27   4858   +769   +19%
3/28   5690   +832   +17%
3/29   6528   +838   +15%
3/30   7340   +812   +12%
3/31   8189   +849   +12%
4/01   9053   +864   +11%
4/02  10003   +950   +10%
4/03  10935   +932    +9%
4/04  11744   +809    +7%
4/05  12418   +674    +6%
4/06  13055   +637    +5%
4/07  13798   +743    +6%
4/08  14555   +757    +6%

Madrid
Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
March 27     2412            322
March 28     2757            345
March 29     3082            325
March 30     3392            310
March 31     3603            215
April 01     3865            262
April 02     4175            310
April 03     4483            308
April 04     4723            240
April 05     4941            218
April 06     5136            195
April 07     5371            235
April 08     5586            215
   4650. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:30 AM (#5937518)



This is a way oversell. Parks are locked, so no one was there. Foot traffic on the streets is way, way down, though there are still people in the streets, the vast majority of whom certainly seem to be complying with the order, if you include that we're allowed to grocery shop, do a bit of jogging near the house, walk the dog, etc. They felt the number of people on the streets was still too high, but the lockdown measures are very popular in France (and of course Paris is 10 million people, even 99.9% compliance would be ten thousand people not complying)

Technically I live in Hauts-de-Seine, but we also got the outdoor exercise is restricted to nighttime, and takeaways have to close earlier modifications. So I expect it's pretty much the same. There's certainly no wide scale breaking of the lockdown, though it's easy to relax (and honestly, I'm probably far more relaxed about grocery shopping than I was the first time I went).


I believe you, but I was basing my comment on this BBC article, which states the following:

The Paris daytime jogging ban followed a sunny weekend marked by large groups of people running and walking in the city's parks, despite police controls that include fines for violating the lockdown.

...

France has been under strict lockdown measures for almost a month. Anyone who goes outside is required to carry a document stating their reason for leaving home: shopping for necessities, visiting a doctor, or exercise within 1km (half a mile) of their address.

Police have fined hundreds of thousands of people for breaking the tight restrictions.
   4651. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:31 AM (#5937519)
IHME is now predicting 60,000 US deaths, and no day more than 2212. That's basically a prediction that only 2% or so of the country will ever become infected.

edit: Also that NY has hit its peak deaths already, yesterday, and that we are essentially in the clear in 3 weeks (deaths become a rounding error). This... should get interesting.
   4652. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5937520)
I've seen some anecdotal reports - from doctors on the line, who dealing with capacity so it's not like they're able to carefully gather evidence and study - that oxygen therapy may be a better course of treatment than ventilators... not a doctor, so what do I know, but likening bad covid19 cases more to hypoxia than pneumonia, and as such they're having more success delivering more oxygen than forcing lung function.
   4653. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5937521)
How ###### are you once you need to be put on a ventilator?

Proper fucked.
   4654. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 09:10 AM (#5937523)
From the IHME abstract. It explicitly assumes trajectories will follow Wuhan, because there is no other hard data for coming off a peak and what happens next.

At this point in the epidemic, we have had to make arbitrary assumptions in our model on the equivalency between implementing 1, 2, or 3 measures — and we have implicitly assumed that implementing 3 of 4 measures [(school closures, closing non-essential services, shelter-in-place, and major travel restrictions)] will be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan.
   4655. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5937525)
Last two weeks of March, excess deaths in Madrid were close to double the COVID deaths.
   4656. BrianBrianson Posted: April 08, 2020 at 09:21 AM (#5937526)
Yeah, the number of fines reported is quite high. I've been out thrice (and I think my wife four times), and although there are a lot of police about, they never asked to see attestations. But most people's purpose is quite obvious. The early fines were only €35, which some people might've been willing to just eat (and there are reports of people with at least 8 charges getting community service or jail time). Or, of course, the usual police-gypsy conflict or such.

But foot traffic on the street, and car traffic, are both obviously way, way down. There is a large-ish park I can see from my window, its gates are locked and I haven't seen a single person in it. But it is anecdotal, I haven't been more than half a kilometre from my house since the lockdown started, and I'm a few kms from Paris propre.
   4657. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5937530)
NY state, starting from lockdown date.

The pattern is very similar to Spain and Italy. We seem close to the peak now, but are likely to have 10+ days over 300 deaths per day going forward. IHME model predicts something similar. The big question is what happens after that. Do we drop off to nothing and stay there forever? Do we do a slow burn for months? Do we have a second peak, as deadly as the first?

Date     positive  negative   hospitalized  deaths
07 Apr   138,863   201,195    32,083     5,489
06 Apr   130,689   190,122    30,203     4,758 
05 Apr   122,031   180,249    28,092     4,159 
04 Apr   113,704   169,917    26,383     3,565
03 Apr   102,863   157,657    23,696     2,935 
02 Apr    92,381   146,584    20,817     2,373
01 Apr    83,712   137,168    18,368     1,941 
31 Mar    75,795   129,391    15,904     1,550 
30 Mar    66,497   119,971    13,721     1,218 
29 Mar    59,513   112,847    12,075       965 
28 Mar    52,318   103,616    10,054       728 
27 Mar    44,635   101,118     8,526       519 
26 Mar    37,258    84,846     6,844       385 
25 Mar    30,811    72,668     3,805       285 
24 Mar    25,665    65,605     3,234       210 
23 Mar    20,875    57,414     2,635       114 
22 Mar    15,168    46,233     1,974       114 
21 Mar    10,356    35,081     1,603        44 
20 Mar     7,102    25,325                  35
   4658. Ron J Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:20 AM (#5937533)
Dr. Drew has done a rather heart felt mea culpa for his flu comparisons.

Quoting from an article:

In his apology, Drew said that he was “part of a chorus” comparing COVID-19 to the flu. He said he didn’t understand the ferocity of the illness and had been primarily looking at the number of influenza cases.
   4659. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5937536)

Generally, you are very ###### once you're put on a ventilator. Like 86% ######. But that's for all comers, and most people who go on one have a ####-ton of other meducal issues aside from breathing.


There are some hints that may in part be due to the ventilator protocols that are generally used.
   4660. . Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5937552)
Anyone who would compare it epidemiologically to the flu is a buffoonish idiot, particularly at this early stage or even earlier stages.
   4661. puck Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5937554)
#4659 is interesting, and hopeful.
   4662. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5937584)
4659 - when I said all comers I meant all comers, as in outcomes for all who get intubated for any non- surgical reason; not COVID patients specifically.
   4663. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5937585)
+938 in the UK.

Only +542 in Italy (second lowest in weeks) and only +238 in Lombardy (lowest in weeks).

In Lombardy, 1089 new positives in 7770+ new tests (14%)
   4664. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5937586)
Nick Reisman
@NickReisman
·
3m
Gov. Cuomo briefing:

He says the curve is flattening in New York, and he attributes it to social distancing.

The number of hospitalizations over a 3-day average is down in the state.
   4665. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5937588)
It looks like New York, Spain, and Italy have released death totals for today. Per Worldometers, Italy has 17,669 total deaths (542 today), for a total of 292 deaths per million people (that's per total population, not per COVID case). Spain has 14,673 deaths (628 today), for a total of 314 per million people.

New York has 6,268 total deaths (779 today) or 319 deaths per million people.
   4666. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5937589)
from what i can tell, the cancellation of march madness may have saved literally millions of lives.
   4667. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5937590)
If Lombardy's intensive care numbers can be believed, they are still near their high, and they have been within 10% of their high for the last two weeks. Italy as a whole is fairly similar. The projections on IHME said they should have reached a peak on March 27 and be at just over 50% now. The actual peak was later (according to the Italian website), and is 85-90% now.

Likewise, for NY, IHME predicts peak ICU was yesterday, and ventilators and general beds are today.
   4668. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5937591)
From the IHME abstract. It explicitly assumes trajectories will follow Wuhan, because there is no other hard data for coming off a peak and what happens next.
okay, so it's worthless.

please stop talking about it.


i really don't mean to shut down the conversation, but a theoretical model that is explicitly built on false assumptions is actively harmful and it cannot be taken seriously.
   4669. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5937592)

The number of hospitalizations over a 3-day average is down in the state.
Must mean "new" hospitalizations? The numbers I posted above came from the NY state website, showing hospitalizations have continued to rise.
   4670. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5937594)
there is no other hard data for coming off a peak and what happens next.


Basically agree with #4668. If I were inclined to do any data analysis of all of this, I'd exclude China (and Iran and probably a handful of other countries) from the dataset before starting.

In terms of "hard data for coming off a peak" we do have data from Italy.Worldometers' Italy page has several graphs. They don't show hospitalization data, but if Italy's hospitals reached capacity at peak, then hospitalization data would be of only limited value anyway. Anyway, there's a graph of "Deaths per Day" on the page which shows a peak day of March 27th (919 deaths). We're 12 days past that now with 542 deaths (which haven't been added to the graph as I look at it right now, but which fit well along the backside of the graph). If you go 12 days before the peak - March 15th - there were 368 deaths (which was actually a bit of an outlier - the day before that had only been 175, the next two days were 349 and 345). Anyway, Italy seems to be coming back down from peak about half as fast as it went up to peak.

Still too early to tell where the numbers bottom out, of course.
   4671. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5937597)
Sorry Stiggles, one more. At this precise moment, the model might be even more broken than ever:

How are social distancing measures used in the model?

The model uses the time from implementation of social distancing measures to the peak of deaths in locations where this peak has already been reached or passed in order to model this relationship for locations where daily deaths have not yet reached their maximum.

Initially, only Wuhan city had progressed far enough through its outbreak for this to be used in our model. An additional 7 locations have since reached or passed the peak of daily deaths (see updates April 5th) – many in less time than was observed for Wuhan city – and this broader evidence base is now used to forecast the date of the peak in daily deaths for each US state and countries in the EEA. The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assumed that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths, the timing of the peak of daily deaths, and thus the burden on hospital systems that the model estimates. The model does not yet explicitly address when or whether social distancing measures could be lifted.



It's a black box to me, but that description implies that to model the "way up" they use Wuhan + several other locations (shortening the time to the top and thus the intensity of the peak, since most of these other places hit their peak faster), but on the "way down" they still use only Wuhan (because nobody else has gone down very far yet, and certainly nowhere near all the way back down). That's the most optimistic of both worlds.
   4672. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5937605)

from what i can tell, the cancellation of march madness may have saved literally millions of lives.


As a Rutgers fan I will only grudgingly admit that it was POSSIBLY the right call.
   4673. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5937610)
So convalescent plasma hocus pocus is looking promising it seems!
   4674. tshipman Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5937612)
Just eyeballing the china graphs and the Italy graphs on Worldometers, China seems to have dropped off faster.

China cut daily deaths by 90% in two weeks from peak. Italy is two days away from two weeks off peak daily deaths but has only cut deaths by about 1/3.
   4675. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5937613)
With delayed spread to rural areas, coronavirus exhibits lack of respect for for good country people.
   4676. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5937617)
With delayed spread to rural areas, coronavirus exhibits lack of respect for for good country people.
Uh-oh. It's starting to get to the Real Americans.
   4677. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5937618)
Another wave, another lockdown in Singapore
   4678. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5937619)
From the CDC website. NYC is one of the only places that has reasonably up to date overall mortality counts. We don't know how up to date it is, so should probably be viewed as a floor.

2/1/2020 to 4/4/2020: New York City 1,712 COVID; 14,001 total (128% of expected, for 3063 excess).

The COVID deaths only explain 56% of the total excess deaths in this period (pending more being reported, if any). That's roughly consistent with other relatively similar places in the world (Italy and Spain).
   4679. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5937620)
from what i can tell, the cancellation of march madness may have saved literally millions of lives.


You wanna show your work on this one?
   4680. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5937624)
NYC is one of the only places that has reasonably up to date overall mortality counts. We don't know how up to date it is, so should probably be viewed as a floor.
Chicago Tribune is reporting 73 deaths in Illinois yesterday, the highest daily total, bringing the total mortality count to "at least 380."
   4681. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5937627)
You wanna show your work on this one?


Not that hard to imagine--people traveling by the thousands from every corner of the country to sit in an enclosed arena in a massive, densely packed crowd, screaming for two and a half hours, and then returning home (many of them flying, which is the #2 most reliable way for adults to spread germs, behind attending concerts/sporting events) where they'll all spread it around, everywhere, at the same time. Those who attended the games, plus numerous people unfortunate enough to have been on the plane with them.

The argument against the assertion "saves millions of lives" is that by canceling March Madness, perhaps you're not saving that many lives, you're just delaying inevitable deaths. But the counter-argument to that counter-argument is that March Madness probably leads to disastrous hospital overcrowding nationwide, all at the same time, and by canceling it and pushing some cases backward in time, you definitely are saving some lives.
   4682. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5937631)
You wanna show your work on this one?
not particularly.

basically, just imagine hundreds of thousands of people flying across the country (in close quarters), so they can sit next a bunch of random strangers (who also just flew across the country), only to immediately fly back across the country again, sitting next to a bunch of other random strangers again, bringing all of those exposures back to their home communities. plus, everyone they contacted along the way would have been exposed, and everyone those people contacted would be exposed.


it would have been a cataclysmically calamitous calamity.


oh, and then there's all of the people who would go to bars to watch, who would go to parties to watch. i mean, #######.
   4683. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5937633)
from the link in 4682:
“Some 40,000 Bergamo inhabitants went to Milan to watch the game. Others watched it from their homes, in families, in groups, at the bar,” Gori said Wednesday. “It’s clear that evening was a situation in which the virus was widely spread.” It’s unlikely that it was the only cause of the virus’s explosion, but it will take time to unravel the unknowns about the pandemic’s spread. What we do know is Atalanta fans piled in cars, buses, and on trains that evening to make the 30-mile trip to Milan to cram into the San Siro stadium against the team from Spain. In retrospect, the match was “a biological bomb,” says the head of pulmonology at a hospital in Bergamo.
...
Four days after the match, Italian authorities locked down cities across the Lombardy region. Schools were closed and sporting events canceled

   4684. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:41 PM (#5937635)
China cut daily deaths by 90% in two weeks from peak. Italy is two days away from two weeks off peak daily deaths but has only cut deaths by about 1/3.

That makes sense. I don't think Italy completely sealed off Lombardy the way the Chinese sealed off Hubei. Even then, clearly in the US we didn't isolate Washington or New York, which means the virus spreads in waves, and could possibly wash back.

Speaking of Washington, it's moved out of the top ten states in number of cases. Presumably deaths will follow in a few weeks.

ETA: It's kinda odd that nobody trusts China's numbers, except the gold standard projection that everybody is quoting.
   4685. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5937637)
I think it's more than just people attending march madness...

I'm not even a big college hoops fan - but sure... I head out to the local watering hole for packed game watching and likewise usually attend a well-attended party at friends.

Is there a bigger and broader sports-induced social event - Superbowl aside - than March Madness?

I doubt it... it's the sort of thing even non-sports fans often "attend" in some social gathering or another.
   4686. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5937640)
from CNN:

A nursing home in Milan, Italy had 150 residents on March 1.
By April 1, there were only 87 left.
   4687. puck Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5937641)
The stories about the challenges medical workers are facing are astounding. People getting fired for talking to the media, people being fired for wearing PPE (in places where the hospital doesn't have enough and the worker brings their own). Then in other countries, it's worse, with medical workers being assaulted over fear they're carriers.

How widespread is this? I hope it's a "few bad apples." They are taking big risks and undergoing a lot of hardships (as there are also plenty of stories of medical personnel isolating themselves from their families).
   4688. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5937642)
and to sitting together at games, add restaurants, bars, mass transit in the city and whatever ancillary events are staged at the later rounds.

Credit, too, to Austin's mayor for canceling SXSW on 6 March and the organizers for going along, and Houston's mayor and the Harris County Judge for closing the Rodeo five days later at the first sign of trouble.
   4689. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5937644)
The stories about the challenges medical workers are facing are astounding. People getting fired for talking to the media, people being fired for wearing PPE (in places where the hospital doesn't have enough and the worker brings their own). Then in other countries, it's worse, with medical workers being assaulted over fear they're carriers.

How widespread is this? I hope it's a "few bad apples." They are taking big risks and undergoing a lot of hardships (as there are also plenty of stories of medical personnel isolating themselves from their families).

anyone who would physically assault a random medical worker (or asian, i guess #MAGA #chinavirus) should be executed without trial.
   4690. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5937646)
anyone who would physically assault a random medical worker (or asian, i guess #MAGA #chinavirus) should be executed without trial.


The OP did say it's happening in other countries. Given that it happens in normal times in Turkey (for one country I'm familiar with), I'm not at all surprised. That's not to say it doesn't happen here. A highly regarded surgeon in Houston was shot and killed whil riding his bike to work. My immediate guess was that a relative of a patient who died was responsible and indeed he was.
   4691. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5937648)
March Madness is a big event and a bad place for the virus to run amok. But there are many major events across the country. They cannot all be responsible for the deaths of millions of people.

The Diamond Princess now has seen 11 die of the ~3500 on board. If the United States were just a big cruise ship full of old people, and the virus were exactly that lethal, about 1 million people would die. Obviously, this ignores many factors, such as the overburdened healthcare system factor. But that number, 1 million, is within spitting distance of the ugliest projections I've seen. It's a decent guess as to the maximum impact of COVID. So I think it's fair to say that "March Madness would have killed millions" is garbage.
   4692. . Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5937651)
If the United States were just a big cruise ship full of old people, and the virus were exactly that lethal, about 1 million people would die.


And of course the United States isn't just a country of old people. COVID looks like it's skewing even older in its lethality, but even with the flu, the relative numbers are staggering. In the 2018-19, flu season, the 18-49 group had 33.5 percent of the symptomatic illnesses, and 7.2 percent of the deaths, while the 65 and over group 8.7 percent of the cases and 74.8 percent of the deaths. If my math is right, that's a 40 times higher mortality rate and that's against a group going all the way up to age 49.

The "first wave" has already, pretty much by definition, culled out vast numbers of the most vulnerable members of the herd; one would assume the modeling is also taking this unfortunately gruesome and tragic and awful fact of nature into account.
   4693. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5937656)
COVID looks like it's skewing even older in its lethality, but even with the flu, the relative numbers are staggering. In the 2018-19, flu season, the 18-49 group had 33.5 percent of the symptomatic illnesses, and 7.2 percent of the deaths, while the 65 and over group 8.7 percent of the cases and 74.8 percent of the deaths. If my math is right, that's a 40 times higher mortality rate and that's against a group going all the way up to age 49.
Still not comparing COVID to the flu, lady (is BBC here today?) and gentlemen.
   4694. Ron J Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5937658)
#4691 Hyperbole to be sure. But it probably creates Northern Italy across pretty much all of the US at more or less the same time. And that's plenty bad enough for me.
   4695. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5937660)
So if the real death toll in Wuhan was 40k and the true CFR is 0.5%, then they should have herd immunity there now. Of course, this would also mean that the lockdown accomplished nothing. Not sure what I make of this, except that there seems to be whole lot of cherry picking going on amkng the model builders.

I don't believe the numbers from China. Then again, I don't really believe the numbers from Texas either.
   4696. BrianBrianson Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5937662)
Diamond Princess had a lockdown and excellent medical care. It's not quite worst case scenario (and, people from it continue to die. Death toll is at least 12, as someone died on March 28th). If the US really did nothing, the death toll is probably more in the ~3 million dead range. As it stand, with lockdowns and ramping up medical equipment production going forward, the worst case now is probably closer to one million dead. And the median guess is probably one to two hundred thousand.
   4697. puck Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5937663)
Yes--the assaults were in other countries. Example story, looks like there are other stories on NYT, WaPo. The linked story did mentioned an assault in Chicago.
   4698. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5937665)
If the US really did nothing, the death toll is probably more in the ~3 million dead range.

Could be.

The original Imperial College paper said 2.2 million, independent of the knockdown effects of a failing health care system.

The point is, "March Madness would have killed millions" is just really sloppy hyperbole. Which I guess is fine, but I appreciate that many in this thread are trying to be precise.
   4699. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5937668)
This is the definition of not good:

Officials with the Louisiana Department of Health announced they have identified COVID-19 in 70 nursing homes in the state.

There are a total of 436 nursing homes and adult residential care facilities in Louisiana. Within nursing homes, 363 patients have been reported to have COVID-19. Among nursing home residents, 103 deaths have been reported.

LDH has stopped reporting new “clusters.”
   4700. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5937669)
Irresponsibility leads to yet another restriction, as Chicago has now banned liquor sales after 9 p.m. after instances of people congregating at liquor stores.
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