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Sunday, March 01, 2020

US-based pro sports leagues monitoring coronavirus outbreak

By request:

Major North American professional sports leagues are talking to health officials and informing teams about the coronavirus outbreak that has led to the first reported death in the U.S.

Officials from the National Basketball Association, National Hockey League and Major League Baseball say they are all consulting with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other organizations on a regular basis about COVID-19. Washington State reported Saturday that a man in his 50s died from the virus.

There are no immediate plans to cancel or postpone games or have them held in empty stadiums or arenas. Some of those contingencies have been taken in other countries, including Italy, where soccer matches were postponed until May.

Pro sports in the U.S. for now are going on as scheduled, though leagues are closely monitoring the situation. The NBA and NHL are in their regular seasons and MLB in spring training in Arizona and Florida with Opening Day less than a month way.

 

QLE Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:56 AM | 8016 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus

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   4701. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5937670)
The Diamond Princess now has seen 11 die of the ~3500 on board.

They tested everyone on the Diamond Princess and only ~700 people had it. I assume that having passengers self-isolate in their cabins, while not 100% effective, greatly limited how rampant it spread. I don't think 20% is a worst-case scenario in terms of infection rate throughout the population.

The "saved millions" was hyperbole but it was certainly a smart move. (I'd also note that a number of schools would have sent all of their students home by the time the tournament had started, so I don't think the NCAA would have had any choice in the end. Their hand was forced when Duke and I believe Kansas did so.)
   4702. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5937673)
The "saved millions" was hyperbole but it was certainly a smart move.

No doubt. As was canceling South by Southwest, the Boston Marathon, innumerable conventions, conferences, festivals, global summits, etc etc.
   4703. puck Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5937674)
It seems like closing gyms was a great idea given the way the virus spread among that choir. Seems like huffing and puffing around others is a really bad idea.

So cheering in stadiums, too.
   4704. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5937678)

The OP did say it's happening in other countries. Given that it happens in normal times in Turkey (for one country I'm familiar with), I'm not at all surprised.

There were a few high profile cases of attacks on doctors in China *before* COVID-19 that I had heard about. Not surprising in a country with large disparities in medical care and where you sometimes have to bribe someone to get an appointment.
   4705. bunyon Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5937682)
Schools that had spring break coming up pretty much had to shut. Having thousands of students go out in the world and party, then come back to work with a bunch of people in higher risk groups would have been a disaster.

Social distancing seems to be working. Don't get cocky.
   4706. SoSH U at work Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:29 PM (#5937685)
Schools that had spring break coming up pretty much had to shut. Having thousands of students go out in the world and party, then come back to work with a bunch of people in higher risk groups would have been a disaster.


Give Me Liberty and Give Me Death.
   4707. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5937689)
Cancelling March Madness may have saved 10,000 lives. Which is a lot of lives.

Was the NBA the first to cancel? Maybe the NBA going first and starting the dominoes saved the most lives.

Maybe the person that saved the most US lives was Rudy Gobert.

   4708. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5937691)
I do think that Gobert and Silver are important figures in the story of America's response.

IIRC, Trump imposed some significant travel restrictions to/from Europe on the same night that the NBA canceled its season. Both seemed like a very big deal to me at the time. It was a Wednesday night, and that night I went out to a bar with friends, and things felt normal. By Monday the schools were closed, I had learned the term "flatten the curve," and my family was basically in lockdown mode.
   4709. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5937692)
Continuing Howie's closed parks subthread:


Ha
rris County parks will close for Easter weekend starting Friday, Judge Lina Hidalgo announced.

The move comes days after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott closed all state parks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

"For so many of our residents, Easter and Passover is a time for spiritual fellowship with others, and I want to encourage that to continue at home and online during this critical period," Hidalgo said in a press statement. "The sooner we come through this together, the faster we’ll be able to return to normalcy and get our economy back up and running again."
   4710. baxter Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5937693)
4652, 4659; thanks for link.
Appears illness does not resemble pneumonia
Letter from Dr. Gattinoni describing findings:
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1164/rccm.202003-0817LE

Also, Medscape piece reports on hospital in Italy experienced 0% mortality on ventilators when adjusting protocols (did not name hospital).
   4711. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5937695)
The point is, "March Madness would have killed millions" is just really sloppy hyperbole. Which I guess is fine, but I appreciate that many in this thread are trying to be precise.

i won't argue that the comment was perfectly triangulated, but i also don't think it rises to the level of hyperbole.

what's happening in new york city would be happening in 50+ different metro areas, all at once. some of them may have been able to handle it adequately; many others would have been a ####### nightmare.


i would also argue there's a meaningful difference between:

"the cancellation of march madness may have saved literally millions of lives."
"March Madness would have killed millions"
   4712. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: April 08, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5937699)
IIRC, Trump imposed some significant travel restrictions to/from Europe on the same night that the NBA canceled its season. Both seemed like a very big deal to me at the time. It was a Wednesday night, and that night I went out to a bar with friends, and things felt normal. By Monday the schools were closed, I had learned the term "flatten the curve," and my family was basically in lockdown mode.

It was one week earlier here. I went to bar trivia on Thursday March 5 because we thought it would be the last one. That was the day schools were told to close, which surprised a lot of people. Then the following Monday the bar wasn't even open. (well, it's a brewery so you could still come in and buy their own beer but that's it). Then on Wednesday like you say, the NBA and Tom Hanks both having the virus felt like the other shoe had dropped.
   4713. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5937700)
It was a Wednesday night, and that night I went out to a bar with friends, and things felt normal. By Monday the schools were closed, I had learned the term "flatten the curve," and my family was basically in lockdown mode.
I played my regular weekly bar gig that Friday night, feeling a little uneasy about it. I got a haircut the next day.

That was the last time I've been out in public except to take a walk or go to the grocery store.
   4714. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5937701)
what's happening in new york city would be happening in 50+ different metro areas, all at once.


Just because of March Madness? No it wouldn't. March Madness is not a unique event. The people that were at Mardis Gras and the beaches for Spring Break went back to 50+ different metro areas too.

It was hyperbole. Just own it. It's not a big deal.
   4715. Tony S Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5937703)
There's some agitation in a few circles to lift the social-distancing restrictions because the (reported) cases and deaths have fallen short of the worst-case scenario so far.

These are probably the same people who stop taking their antibiotics because they're feeling better.
   4716. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5937704)
The letter in 4710 is great to see. Here is a practical interpretation for doctors. Here is a non-technical interpretation.

It's not exactly that it doesn't resemble pneumonia. It is still pneumonia. The surprising thing is that the lung tissue isn't as damaged as you would expect based on blood oxygen levels. These are lungs that are not getting oxygen to the blood, but it's not because the structure has broken down - it looks like there's still sufficient air volume in the lungs and sufficient surface area to get contact between the air and the blood vessels. Therefore they say there is no need to give the usual positive-pressure ventilation/intubation to help people breathe who can't breathe because their lung tissue has broken down. Instead you do what you do when people are struggling to breathe at high altitudes - give as much oxygen as possible. I don't know any of these techniques but it makes sense that they are both easier and have less risk of CAUSING lung damage than ventilation.

End result: Elon Musk's CPAP machines that he was pretending were ventilators will help after all. Or any CPAP machines. Or a lot of machines. Also ventilators themselves.

Complication: These less invasive techniques increase the amount of dangerous droplets in the air because they aren't a closed system like you get with intubation. But the less invasive techniques are being used anyway - these findings indicate they should also be used for severe cases.
   4717. Ron J Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5937706)
Actually I think March Madness is pretty clearly a worst case for spreading a disease.

Large numbers in small spaces with people coming from and returning to pretty much all corners of the US.

And as others have pointed out it's not just the arenas. Though I think they overestimate the secondary effects. Sports bars and the like would have had plenty of people in that time frame without the lockdown.
   4718. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5937707)
The Law School Admission Test (LSAT) is going to be offered as an At-Home, On-Line, Remotely-Proctored Exam In May for those who had been scheduled to take the canceled March & April tests. One can only speculate as to how many lives were saved by canceling those exams.
   4719. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5937710)
One can only speculate as to how many lives were saved by dispersing those potential law students.
Yeah, but they're going to be lawyers, so...
   4720. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5937712)
Just because of March Madness? No it wouldn't. March Madness is not a unique event. The people that were at Mardis Gras and the beaches for Spring Break went back to 50+ different metro areas too.

It was hyperbole. Just own it. It's not a big deal.
fun fact:

louisiana has the 3rd highest mortality rate of any state so far (behind NJ and NY), with 140 deaths per 1MM population, according to worldometers.


and yes, march madness is more unique than spring break. if a group of 10 frat people come back from spring break with the virus, it'll be bad, but isolation and contact tracing can still be effective at slowing/stopping the rate of transmission.

when hundreds of people come back infected, contact tracing is not a viable response anymore. there are too many nodes to track.


also, as noted by others: being outside in the sun at the beach is a lower risk activity than screaming for 5 hours in a packed arena.
   4721. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5937713)
also, as noted by others being outside in the sun at the beach is a lower risk activity than screaming for 5 hours in a packed arena.
Have you met spring breakers? It's more the indiscriminate sharing of saliva that would be the issue.
   4722. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5937714)
Might still be early but -- any info on where to donate a CPAP for hospital use?
   4723. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5937715)
The surprising thing is that the lung tissue isn't as damaged as you would expect based on blood oxygen levels.


I've heard anecdotes from a couple of docs of patients with blue lips and O2 sats in the 70s but no discomfort or shortness of breath. This thing is just freaking weird.

Edit - not sure this means that CPAP is the answer though, since the patients don't have obstruction either; people might do fine on high levels of oxygen without the need for positive pressure.
   4724. base ball chick Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5937717)
cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5937660)

...
Then again, I don't really believe the numbers from Texas either


- the numbers from texas are as reliable as pete rose saying he never bet 0n baseball
very few people are able to get tested and it is tatking DAYS to get resultsd and people who die who didn't get tested are not being called covid deaths even if they came in with covid symptoms

- these jerks are as repressive as the commies in china

cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5937715)

The surprising thing is that the lung tissue isn't as damaged as you would expect based on blood oxygen levels.

I've heard anecdotes from a couple of docs of patients with blue lips and O2 sats in the 70s but no discomfort or shortness of breath. This thing is just freaking weird


so why on earth would people with oxygen that low not have no shortness of breath???
   4725. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5937718)
CPAPs don't blow oxygen, do they? Just regular ~21-percent-oxygen air. Not going to help if oxygen saturation is the problem.

It seems likely that even if this new revelation turns out to be true--that simple oxygen helps as much as intubation with lesser life-altering consequences--it won't change much, because there will instantly be a dire shortage of oxygen tanks. That industry is already, you know, efficiently meeting the needs of the legions of elderly people with ruined lungs.
   4726. Srul Itza Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5937719)
Hawaii Numbers:

15,000 people tested (the State is still insisting on only testing people showing symptoms, though private companies are doing more)

435 confirmed cases

42 Hospitalizations

6 Deaths
   4727. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:14 PM (#5937721)
Irresponsibility leads to yet another restriction, as Chicago has now banned liquor sales after 9 p.m. after instances of people congregating at liquor stores.

Put your makeup on
Fix your hair up pretty
Meet me tonight in...... the liquor store?
   4728. baxter Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5937722)
4716 thanks; that first article you link is the one mentioning the 0% fatality rate at the Italian hospital.

Hopefully, other institutions can replicate the results.

I noted Boris Johnson received oxygen but did NOT go on a ventilator.
   4729. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5937723)
I am about 10 minutes behind the live feed, but Twits are telling me Trump in this briefing got a question about "Tiger King."
   4730. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5937724)
Put your makeup on
Fix your hair up pretty
Meet me tonight in...... the liquor store?
I hear the fields behind the Dynamo are still open. For now.
   4731. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5937725)
Twits are telling me Trump in this briefing got a question about "Tiger King."
"Are you more or less orange than the typical tiger?"

"Who is less qualified to be the president, you or anyone on that show?"
   4732. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5937726)
this is CNN fact check dude:

Daniel Dale
@ddale8
Trump is asked about a pardon for Joe Exotic of Tiger King.

Trump: "I know nothing about it...he has 22 for what? What did he do?"

Trump to the reporter asking/explaining: "You think he didn't do it? Are you on his side? Are you recommending a pardon?"
6:20 PM · Apr 8, 2020
   4733. Sit down, Sleepy has lots of stats Posted: April 08, 2020 at 07:10 PM (#5937727)
Wow, joe exotic ran for president in 2016. Shame he didn’t make it on stage for the debates.
   4734. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: April 08, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5937729)
so why on earth would people with oxygen that low not have no shortness of breath???


No idea. Like I said, freaking weird. But I guess we should keep in mind that the plural of anecdote is not data.
   4735. baxter Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:12 PM (#5937731)
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173

Article discusses chloroquine.

I understand about every 10th word; microbiology not my discipline
   4736. Zach Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:16 PM (#5937733)
The difference between my age and Boris Johnson's is immaterial, so I'm not talking my book in the least here. If I had it in late December -- and it's quite likely I did; virtually every sign points to it, particularly the staged advance and the massive dry cough -- I'm very lucky I wound up where I did. And if I didn't, I'm in an at-risk group. Not the highest risk to be sure, but I'm unfortunately not 25 anymore.


You didn't.

The strains circulating in the US have common ancestors that were circulating in China around January 15. If you were sick in December you had the boring 'ol flu.
   4737. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5937734)
I’ve been anxious in the past that a book I’m working on will be superseded by another book with a similar premise, or that a social or political issue central to the book’s themes will no longer be in the zeitgeist by pub day. It never occurred to me to worry that a massive crisis would so change the fabric of how we live that my work of realistic fiction would no longer seem remotely realistic.

The pandemic has taken a lot of things that occur in this book, things that were just the basics of human experience—people going to bars, seeing doctors, shaking hands—and recoded them, charged them with new meaning. The coronavirus’s influence extends beyond behaviors and into the unseen emotional currents of our lives: how we think about each other, about our institutions, our future, our mortality. What it feels like to be a person, a parent, a citizen; what it feels like to wake up in the morning; what it feels like to greet a stranger, to call your mother, to leave your house. Some of these changes will be fleeting; some will be permanent. We don’t know yet which will be which.

Right now, we are in the middle of total and utter upheaval. What reader will accept that my characters blithely go about their business in Los Angeles in the spring and summer of this year we’re in? The virus—news of it, reaction to it, fear and dread and anger surrounding it—has so swamped human experience that any work of fiction set during these months must either be about the pandemic or contend with its presence page by page.

an interesting point of view.
   4738. Snowboy Posted: April 08, 2020 at 09:05 PM (#5937738)
4737 yeah even those videos posted by the deposed rugby announcer calling street crossings and park pram races have gone from cutesee to verboten in two weeks. Quickly and suddenly everything normal is forbidden - going to a pub for trivia with friends, are you mad?

It snowed here the other day. My friend (and fellow laid-off co-worker) asked if we should do as normal: go outside and shovel? Or just wait for Ma Nature to do her thing?

Shoveling is not so much about me, but it's about my neighbours, the people who live down the street, or around the corner and always take their dogs for a walk, and the people who come here to go to the school, church, and factory I can see out the window.

Not much traffic at the school, church, or park across the street these days, but the factory is still going. And it's not the dog's fault, he needs to pee, and a clear path to the tree on my lawn will keep him calm. (Calmer?)

I'm not giving up on society. We'll figure this out. People will come, Ray, people will most definitely come.

I shoveled.
My house, and my next door neighbours sidewalk. As you do.
   4739. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5937745)
4737. Yes, a former grad school colleague of mind made the comment yesterday that every movie ever made is now a period piece.
   4740. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:42 PM (#5937746)
New York Times live updates:
Coronavirus in New York came mainly from Europe, studies show.

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.
   4741. PreservedFish Posted: April 08, 2020 at 10:57 PM (#5937749)
Germany +333 deaths yesterday. Soon, perhaps, we'll stop reading about how they did everything right.
   4742. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:12 PM (#5937751)
Supposedly the Bundesliga will be back playing games in 3+ weeks.
   4743. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:13 PM (#5937752)
New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia.


China virus, EU virus, win-win.
   4744. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:24 PM (#5937753)
Germany +333 deaths yesterday. Soon, perhaps, we'll stop reading about how they did everything right.

but will it have to be over their dead bodies?
   4745. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:29 PM (#5937754)
Oh. Didn't realize the IHME model broke down some foreign countries by region.

Some goodies:
          projected total     actual (as of April 8)
Lombardy        10,451        9,722
Emilia Romagana  2,355        2,234
Madrid           5,684        5,586
Catalonia        3,437        3,041
Castilla y Leon  1,165        1,028


Madrid will pass that tomorrow. The others probably by the end of the week.
   4746. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5937755)
Tuscany now had 392 of a projected 343 deaths. They're already overperforming.

It's a small number of total cases, but it's one of the regions that IHME was saying it used for building their models.
   4747. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:46 PM (#5937756)
Supposedly the Bundesliga will be back playing games in 3+ weeks.

Dietmar Hopp will be happy nobody is in the stands.
   4748. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5937758)
As of April 5, when Tuscany had 325 deaths, IHME projected 18 more total (i.e. ever). Since then they've recorded 67 in the last 3 days (25, 19, and 23). That's not solid projecting.

edit:


IHME started making projections of the pandemic’s impact in the United States state-by-state on March 26. Today’s announcement is the first set of predictions for European nations and is based on modeling the peak in death rates and hospital usage in Wuhan City in China, where the virus was first discovered, as well as data from seven European locations that have peaked, including Madrid, Spain; Castile-La Mancha, Spain; Tuscany, Italy; Emilia-Romagna, Italy; Liguria, Italy; Piedmont, Italy; and Lombardy, Italy.
   4749. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:02 AM (#5937760)
4668. send the 57i66135 over with flamethrowers Posted: April 08, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5937591)
From the IHME abstract. It explicitly assumes trajectories will follow Wuhan, because there is no other hard data for coming off a peak and what happens next.
okay, so it's worthless.

please stop talking about it.


i really don't mean to shut down the conversation, but a theoretical model that is explicitly built on false assumptions is actively harmful and it cannot be taken seriously.




auntbea: i sincerely appreciate your contributions to this thread. whenever i check into this thread, you are on point (more than anyone else) and it's great... but this is making me twitch.


also, i do realize this is my problem, not yours, so feel free to carry on without regard for it. but i may twitch somewhat uncontrollably from time to time as a result.



on a completely unrelated note: does anyone know if weighted blankets are being given priority by amazon?
   4750. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:19 AM (#5937762)
Over the last two weeks, FDNY officials said 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year. On Tuesday evening, the city reported 3,544 people have died of coronavirus, as confirmed by lab tests.

Earlier in the day, Mayor Bill de Blasio acknowledged that the vast majority of deaths taking place at home were likely also due to the virus, meaning the death toll could be as much as 70 percent higher than currently reported figures.
(Source)
   4751. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5937763)
and that 25 in Tuscany tied the peak or does it redefine the peak?
   4752. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 09, 2020 at 02:59 AM (#5937767)
Germany +333 deaths yesterday. Soon, perhaps, we'll stop reading about how they did everything right.


Definitely possible. However, based upon https://ncov2019.live/data/europe, Germany (and Austria) have a pretty enviable deaths/million rate compared to their peers. France and the UK are both multiples higher, and the Netherlands is about 4-5 times smaller in population terms, but with about the same number of deaths.
   4753. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 09, 2020 at 04:57 AM (#5937770)
Oh. Didn't realize the IHME model broke down some foreign countries by region.
[...]
Madrid will pass that tomorrow. The others probably by the end of the week.

I mean, it is way passed over-determined at this point, that the IHME model is complete GIGO. The sooner people stop referring to it at all, the better.
   4754. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 09, 2020 at 05:16 AM (#5937771)
Definitely possible. However, based upon https://ncov2019.live/data/europe, Germany (and Austria) have a pretty enviable deaths/million rate compared to their peers. France and the UK are both multiples higher, and the Netherlands is about 4-5 times smaller in population terms, but with about the same number of deaths.

Comparisons in deaths/million at this point are not very informative. Or actually strike that, are hugely misleading, and misinformative.

The virus does not spread to each region at exactly the same time. Different regions and countries are at vastly different points in their curve. It is way too soon to say with any confidence, whether a country is genuinely doing better, or is simply at an earlier point in the inevitable curve. Which when you are dealing with something that displays exponential growth, makes a huge difference.

France reached >100 deaths on March 15th. Germany not until March 23rd. From there it took France 14 days to get to ~2300 (where Germany is now), and Germany 16 days. If Germany's deaths double every 3 days, they will be right at about the same number of deaths France is now.

So maybe they will do better. Maybe they will hit their peak by then, or at least slow growth to a point that it keeps the totals lower. But maybe they are just at the same point France was about a week ago. And are going to get just as fucked.

All of that is of course without going into the obvious point, that there are huge discrepancies between countries, as to the identifying, counting, and reporting of corona deaths, that make the total number of deaths a very imprecise number.
   4755. Sebastian Posted: April 09, 2020 at 07:31 AM (#5937774)
Here in Austria they’re having a go at trying to quantify the unreported cases. They tested 2,000ish random households last week and are supposed to present the results of that study today or tomorrow. The rate of new infections has been vaguely trending downward for the last couple of weeks, while testing seems to have increased. I know that the government is really hoping for good news from the random sample, because they want to start easing off on the restrictions from Tuesday onwards. For what it’s worth, all hospitals are running well below capacity in terms of intensive care and ventilators.

We kind of cheated, of course. Tons of people got infected around the end of February/beginning of March, but they then all went back home to wherever there are no mountains.
   4756. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 09, 2020 at 07:38 AM (#5937775)
I'm not sure I disagree with any of 4754 specifically. But when you look at deaths on a log scale without the per capita qualifier, Germany still looks like it's towards the lower end of its peers. If this link works, it should show the 'Confirmed Covid-19 deaths' against a log scale with some of the countries most comparable to Germany highlighted. There are certainly other curves with shallower climbs (Austria, Denmark, Ireland), but based on the data we do have - which I acknowledge is subject to inaccuracies and inconsistencies - learning things from Germany seems like it might be productive.
   4757. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 08:08 AM (#5937779)
Different countries and locations got hit with a virus problem at fairly different times, but for the most part they all started social distancing at around the same time (roughly...). So generally speaking places that got it later really are "doing better".
   4758. Tony S Posted: April 09, 2020 at 08:10 AM (#5937780)
I mean, it is way passed over-determined at this point, that the IHME model is complete GIGO. The sooner people stop referring to it at all, the better.


I agree. Is anybody with any authority still seriously and unquestioningly referring to it? (That way I know who not to listen to.)

On a related note, it looks like the hydroxychloroquine hype has died down somewhat. It's no longer on the CDC website.
   4759. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5937781)
4756 - on that graph is looks to me that Germany is on basically the same curve as the Netherlands and Belgium. Which is not something to brag about.

My non-expert and unstudied opinion is that there's a ton of luck involved here. Lombardy had the bad luck to get a big concentrated dose of the virus straight from Wuhan. Perhaps Germany had good luck to avoid a serious infection for a much longer time, longer than France/UK/Spain/USA. The pressure to lock down spread over Europe much faster than the virus itself did.

[edit - exactly what AuntBea said]

Meanwhile, I keep seeing journalists talk about Germany's low mortality rate (meaning the deaths:confirmed cases ratio), and not realizing that this is likely more a reflection of testing practices than it is the actual lethality of the virus within German borders. Very frustrating.
   4760. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 08:14 AM (#5937783)
Spain is still on the rebound. NYC looks a bit like Madrid, 10-14 days behind.
3/19   1326
3/20   1720   +398   +30%
3/23   2182   +462   +27%
3/24   2696   +514   +24%
3/25   3434   +738   +27%
3/26   4089   +655   +19%
3/27   4858   +769   +19%
3/28   5690   +832   +17%
3/29   6528   +838   +15%
3/30   7340   +812   +12%
3/31   8189   +849   +12%
4/01   9053   +864   +11%
4/02  10003   +950   +10%
4/03  10935   +932    +9%
4/04  11744   +809    +7%
4/05  12418   +674    +6%
4/06  13055   +637    +5%
4/07  13798   +743    +6%
4/08  14555   +757    +6%
4/09  15238   +683    +4%

Madrid
Date        total deaths    new deaths
March 10       21             13   (as of 9pm the prior evening, so would be prior to the shutdown)
March 11       31             10
March 12       56             25
March 13       81             35
March 14        ?              
March 15        ?
March 16      213
March 17      355            142
March 18      390             35
March 19      498            108
March 20      628            130
March 21      804            176
March 22     1021            217
March 23     1263            242
March 24     1535            272
March 25     1825            290
March 26     2090            265
March 27     2412            322
March 28     2757            345
March 29     3082            325
March 30     3392            310
March 31     3603            215
April 01     3865            262
April 02     4175            310
April 03     4483            308
April 04     4723            240
April 05     4941            218
April 06     5136            195
April 07     5371            235
April 08     5586            215
April 09     5800            214
   4761. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5937786)
In Germany they ran antibodies on 1000 people from the Heinsberg district (where Germany had an early problem but quarantined people) and got back results from 509, finding 14% (71) had the antibody and 2% (10) currently had the virus (1% still infectious I think, so only 5 more). From this they estimate that the mortality rate is 0.37% (based, I assume, on the number of people who actually died in the district). Heinsberg was initially hit with the virus in mid-February.

Here's a link describing the original study. The 1000 people were chosen to represent Germany demographically, so hopefully the 509 do as well. Still a pretty small sample.

Worth pointing out again that there have already been 5000+ excess deaths in Bergamo (1.1 million) (0.45% or more) in the time of the coronavirus, in a much larger sample. Not everyone in Bergamo could have gotten infected. Bergamo skews old though, and hospitals were overwhelmed, so the two different numbers could potentially be reconciled.

Even assuming Heinsberg's 0.37% mortality, that's still 200,000 Germans dead to reach herd immunity, and 800,000 Americans.
   4762. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 09, 2020 at 09:02 AM (#5937788)
4756 - on that graph is looks to me that Germany is on basically the same curve as the Netherlands and Belgium. Which is not something to brag about.


I'm not clicking my heels in delight over it, but English-language press is probably rather naturally going to compare Germany to the UK and to its nearest 'large' peer in terms of economy, population, international traffic, and geopolitical importance: France. It's certainly valid to ask if Austria, Denmark, Lithuania, and Luxembourg are doing something right that other nations aren't, but I'm not shocked that's not the first comparisons people reach for.

Meanwhile, I keep seeing journalists talk about Germany's low mortality rate (meaning the deaths:confirmed cases ratio), and not realizing that this is likely more a reflection of testing practices than it is the actual lethality of the virus within German borders. Very frustrating.


Totally agree with this and the 'luck' point, of course. It also skews the Recovered/Deaths ratio, which otherwise would be helpful in understanding mortality rates as well.
   4763. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: April 09, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5937791)
AuntBea:

Thank you for posting this stuff.
   4764. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5937792)
It's certainly valid to ask if Austria, Denmark, Lithuania, and Luxembourg are doing something right that other nations aren't, but I'm not shocked that's not the first comparisons people reach for.


It's valid, but I think the statistics are muddy, and the progression of the virus poorly understood, and as a result we are seeing a ton of the spurious narrative-building that we are familiar with from the world of baseball commentary.
   4765. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5937797)
I should say, "some of the spurious narrative-building," not a ton. I've also read plenty of journalism and commentary that doesn't overreach or overexplain the unknowns. Most articles about Japan, for example, quite plainly state that nobody really has any idea why the epidemic hasn't taken hold there yet.

I got put in a bad mood yesterday when I read a National Review piece on Sweden, stating, as you might imagine, that they're the only country doing it right. I find Sweden fascinating and well-worth studying, but the argument was not worth linking: it was 96% ideology, 4% evidence.
   4766. Tony S Posted: April 09, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5937798)

New Zealand continues to be a success story.

And they're not lifting their lockdown until the beast is completely tamed.
   4767. Tony S Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:20 AM (#5937803)
An encouraging assessment from Dr. Fauci.

Social distancing seems to be working as intended.

But if we pull back too quickly, we'll be back at square one:

“The real data are telling us it is highly likely we are having a definite positive effect by the mitigation things that we’re doing, this physical separation,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC in an interview.

“I believe we are going to see a downturn in that, and it looks more like the 60,000, than the 100,000 to 200,000” projected fatalities, he said. “But having said that we better be careful that we don’t say, ‘OK, we’re doing so well we could pull back.’”


   4768. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5937804)
it was 96% ideology, 4% evidence.
You were expecting something different from the National Review?
   4769. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5937805)
I'm not super familiar with the National Review, except by reputation, and that only vaguely. I had hoped that it might be a proud enough publication to not publish rank bullshit. But, who knows. And even great newspapers and magazines seem to tolerate bullshit in the op-ed pages.

To give you an idea, the article looked at Sweden (79 dead per million) and Norway (19 dead per million) and concluded that Sweden is doing much better than Norway, I think because Norway has more positive COVID cases (duh, they've done twice the number of tests).
   4770. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:45 AM (#5937809)
Assuming South Korea is counting most of the dead correctly, their mortality rate is around 2.2% with the lookback factored in. To get down to 0.37% they'd have to have only identified 1/6 of their cases at that time. That's awfully low for a test/trace system that appears to be working, but I guess it's possible.

With such a low number of deaths, it's also possible that South Korea is actually overcounting the number dead (unlike everyone everywhere else), which could skew the results.
   4771. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5937811)
Belgium is catching up to Spain/Italy in the deaths per million competition. Better news from Belgium: Orangutans and otters living together at this Belgium zoo have become best friends
   4772. Hot Wheeling American Posted: April 09, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5937812)
Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears

Some local officials are disappointed the federal government will end funding for coronavirus testing sites this Friday. In a few places those sites will close as a result. This as criticism continues that not enough testing is available.

In the Philadelphia suburbs, Montgomery County has a drive-through site that has tested 250 people a day since March 21.

"It has been a very successful site. We are hoping by the time it closes Friday afternoon that we will have tested a little over 5,000 individuals," says Dr. Valerie Arkoosh, who chairs the commission in the county of more than 825,000 people.

...

Arkoosh says local officials staffed the site and the federal government provided much-needed testing supplies and access to a lab. "This site came with a contract with LabCorp, who accepted 250 samples from this site every day," and she says the county is not able to secure the supplies and tests on its own.

Arkoosh says the site, located on a local college campus, will shut down Friday. Similar announcements have been made in Colorado Springs, Colo., and nearby Philadelphia.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services tells NPR, "Many of the Community-Based Testing Sites (CBTS) are not closing, but rather transitioning to state-managed sites on or about April 10."

The agency and a spokesperson for FEMA say the CBTS program originally included 41 sites. It was intended as a stop-gap to bring testing to critical locations, especially for health care facility workers and first responders.

"The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most," the HHS spokesperson said.

But that doesn't satisfy Arkoosh in Montgomery County, who says, "I am understandably disappointed that the supplies and federal contract for lab testing is ending just as we are heading into the surge here in southeastern Pennsylvania."

Arkoosh says local hospitals do have their own testing sites set up now, but it's not yet clear if they will be able to handle the extra testing now that the federal help is being withdrawn.


This seems pretty bad! So I'm actually jonesing for The Yankee Clapper's spin on how this is actually ok and Dr. Arkoosh and I are overreacting. (not snark - I'd love it if the federal government is not abandoning even its half-assed response)
   4773. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5937813)
I'm not super familiar with the National Review, except by reputation, and that only vaguely. I had hoped that it might be a proud enough publication to not publish rank bullshit. But, who knows. And even great newspapers and magazines seem to tolerate bullshit in the op-ed pages.
It's one of those publications that starts with the premise that the right-wing position is the right answer to any question, and then works back from there.
   4774. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5937814)
This seems pretty bad! So I'm actually jonesing for The Yankee Clapper's spin on how this is actually ok and Dr. Arkoosh and I are overreacting. (not snark - I'd love it if the federal government is not abandoning even its half-assed response)
Well, reducing testing should help to bring the numbers down.
   4775. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5937816)
More on that German study: it seems to have been done entirely within Gangelt (population 12,529). A representative sample was taken "from the community". It's hard to believe that can really be a representative sample of Germany or the world as a whole. 80% agreed to participate (I read elsewhere). That creates a separate sampling problem.

It's also unclear what deaths they are using to determine 0.37%. It can't be deaths in their sample, since that would be 1.85 deaths out of 500. Is it deaths in the town they sampled from? That would be about 19 deaths only, so highly sensitive to a million other factors, including lady luck. Is it deaths from a larger area, like the entire district? That would be a little bit of apples to oranges.

Translation posted on Reddit:

Background: The municipality of Gangelt is one of the places in Germany most affected by COVID19 . It is assumed that the infection is due to a carnival session on 15 February 2020, as several people tested positive for SARSCoV2 in the aftermath of this session. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session are currently being investigated in more detail. A representative sample was taken from the community

Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) in the Heinsberg district. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol in which, depending on the expected prevalence, 100 to 300 households are randomly examined. This random sample was coordinated with Prof. Manfred Güllner (Forsa) to ensure its representativeness.

Aim: The aim of the study is to determine the status of SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected persons) in the community of Gangelt, which have been and are still occurring. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2 immunity shall be determined.

Procedure: A serial letter was sent to about 600 households. In total, about 1000 inhabitants from about 400 households took part in the study. Questionnaires were collected, throat swabs taken and blood tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA). The interim results and conclusions of approx. 500 persons are included in this first evaluation.

Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined. About 2% of the persons had a current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by PCR method. The infection rate (current infection or already been through) was about 15 % in total. The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37 % with the preliminary data from this study. The lethality rate currently calculated in Germany by Johns-Hopkins University is 1.98 %, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15 %.

Preliminary conclusion: The lethality calculated by Johns-Hopkins University is 5 times higher than in this study in Gangelt, which is explained by the different reference size of the infected persons. In Gangelt, this study covers all infected persons in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and mild courses. In Gangelt, the proportion of the population that has already developed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is about 15%. This means that 15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer become infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the process has already begun until herd immunity is achieved. This 15% of the population reduces the speed (net reproduction rate R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of SARS-CoV-2 accordingly.

   4776. Howie Menckel Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:50 AM (#5937829)
now NY Gov Cuomo makes the weird comparison of 9-11 lives lost in NYC - 2,753 - to COVID-19's 7,067 in the state so far.

one thing happened in a few hours, the other happened in a month. (today's high of 799 is the new record.)

one thing killed people somewhat evenly across the age spectrum, the other mostly is confined to the elderly.

one thing happened mostly in two skyscrapers, the other happened across the entire NYC region and somewhat beyond.

and so on.

pro tip: if your comparison pretty much begs a certain group to bring up the number of flu deaths or traffic fatalities - you're not doing it right.
   4777. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5937832)
Oops, it could be even worse than I thought. The study said 0.37% of the estimated infected were dead in Gangelt, and that 15% of Gestalt was infected. That's 12,529 * 15% *.37% = only 7 people, or 0.06% of the population. The 0.15% stated above may have been the total mortality in Gangelt in a month, including non-coronavirus deaths (it's unclear).

If these numbers are based on 7 deaths only...

   4778. bob gee Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5937836)
Didn't like the comparison to 9/11.

But did like that the new people into ICU, and new people into hospitals, is falling off a cliff. That's really good news for New York, but I think Long Island is still increasing?
   4779. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 09, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5937839)
The infection rate (current infection or already been through) was about 15 % in total. The case fatality rate in relation to the total number of infected persons in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37 % with the preliminary data from this study. The lethality rate currently calculated in Germany by Johns-Hopkins University is 1.98 %, which is 5 times higher. The mortality in relation to the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15 %.


I must be missing something. The first sentence estimates that 15% of people in Gangelt got COVID-19. The last sentence reads to me that 0.15% of the population of Gangelt died of COVID-19. So, the percentage of people with COVID-19 who die(d) of COVID-19 should be the latter number (0.15%) divided by the former number (15%). That equals 1%, not 0.37%.
   4780. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5937843)
Yeah, it's hard to know what the 0.15% number signifies. Some speculated excess deaths (total, including coronavirus) in March in Gangelt.
   4781. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:10 PM (#5937846)
0.15% would be roughly Gangelt's total "normal" mortality rate over a 2-3 month stretch. Not sure if that's what they're getting at.
   4782. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5937847)
New York as of yesterday. Yesterday there were fewer hospitalized (must be some being released as well as fewer coming in)
+799 today in deaths, which will lag behind a bit. We should be at/near the peak there, now that we are 18 days or so into the stay at home order.
Date     positive  negative   hospitalized  deaths
08 Apr   149,316   215,837    32,669     6,268
07 Apr   138,863   201,195    32,083     5,489
06 Apr   130,689   190,122    30,203     4,758 
05 Apr   122,031   180,249    28,092     4,159 
04 Apr   113,704   169,917    26,383     3,565
03 Apr   102,863   157,657    23,696     2,935 
02 Apr    92,381   146,584    20,817     2,373
01 Apr    83,712   137,168    18,368     1,941 
31 Mar    75,795   129,391    15,904     1,550 
30 Mar    66,497   119,971    13,721     1,218 
29 Mar    59,513   112,847    12,075       965 
28 Mar    52,318   103,616    10,054       728 
27 Mar    44,635   101,118     8,526       519 
26 Mar    37,258    84,846     6,844       385 
25 Mar    30,811    72,668     3,805       285 
24 Mar    25,665    65,605     3,234       210 
23 Mar    20,875    57,414     2,635       114 
22 Mar    15,168    46,233     1,974       114 
21 Mar    10,356    35,081     1,603        44 
20 Mar     7,102    25,325                  35
   4783. bobm Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5937855)
[4776]

one thing killed people somewhat evenly across the age spectrum, the other mostly is confined to the elderly. [...]

pro tip: if your comparison pretty much begs a certain group to bring up the number of flu deaths or traffic fatalities - you're not doing it right.


Isn't that the essential (political, not necessarily scientific) tension here as the lockdown continues?

Can the lockdown ease up entirely? Or does the political pressure rise to accelerate an easing of the lockdown and a limiting of the lockdown just to people under 60 and not immune-compromised? I am not advocating one way or the other, just asking the question.
   4784. Ron J Posted: April 09, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5937863)
#4783 That's essentially what Sweden tried. It's been pretty rough on the elderly. As in death rate higher than its neighbours but but skewed very heavily to the elderly.

Impolitely called, let's kill grandpa. I want to shop.
   4785. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5937864)
Better news from Belgium: Orangutans and otters living together at this Belgium zoo have become best friends


They house their animals alphabetically?
   4786. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5937865)
I think Bob's point may be that if you shut down all conversation regarding comparative death totals, you quickly get into "if it saves even one life!!" territory, which is no way to make decisions.
   4787. tshipman Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5937870)
I think Bob's point may be that if you shut down all conversation regarding comparative death totals, you quickly get into "if it saves even one life!!" territory, which is no way to make decisions.


This would be a fair point if anyone were making that argument.

Everyone should be looking at the New Zealand example and saying, how hard is the political lift to do that? Test widely, quarantine incoming travelers, and shelter in place until the curve drops.

That's it. That's the playbook.

You don't have to do the crazy draconian stuff. You just have to do the smart stuff that people have already figured out. It's way more effective the sooner you do it. And you have to hold to it, despite a low number of cases and deaths, because it's easy to see what the alternative is.
   4788. Ron J Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5937871)
#4786 Sure. And while I can see my last line as an attempt to shut the conversation down it wasn't intended that way.

But it does need to be acknowledged that any reopening of society before the damned thing is snuffed out is going to be rough on the elderly. Even if merely a partial reopening.
   4789. Ron J Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5937875)
Incidentally I apologise if I'm coming off as other than my normal sweet self. Alarming news from my baby sister. Bad cough and extreme fatigue.

EDIT: Assistant manager at Wal-Mart so she's been dealing with the public daily.
   4790. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5937877)
Latest estimate I saw is that 24-25 percent of the workforce is over 55. No idea what percentage is immune-compromised. Some lines of work can handle that better than others, and deaths skewing older isn't the same as deaths exclusively among what you whippersnappers call the old.
   4791. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5937878)
Good luck to her, Ron.
   4792. Eddo Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5937882)
I think Bob's point may be that if you shut down all conversation regarding comparative death totals, you quickly get into "if it saves even one life!!" territory, which is no way to make decisions.

This would be a fair point if anyone were making that argument.

Well, you did reply with "Okay. We'll kill your parents first." when PreservedFish dared to ask how much death is acceptable a few pages ago, so it seemed to me like you were making an argument something like that.

(EDITED to clarify I am speaking solely for myself.)
   4793. Ron J Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5937883)
#4792. Beginning to look like run of the mill exhaustion. She just woke up from a really long sleep (done very little besides sleep for a day and a half) and the cough is gone. Here's hoping.

   4794. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5937887)
To be clear, I wasn't offended by tshipman's response, then or now. And I really was just trying to explain what I thought BobM's point was, not trying to make a point myself.
   4795. Eddo Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5937888)
To be clear, I wasn't offended by tshipman's response, then or now.

Fair enough. I thought it was a uncalled-for response to a legitimate question you were asking. And sorry for the use of we - I actually didn't realize you were the one who added to bobm's comment. I've edited my comment.
   4796. PreservedFish Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5937890)
Everyone should be looking at the New Zealand example and saying, how hard is the political lift to do that? Test widely, quarantine incoming travelers, and shelter in place until the curve drops.

That's it. That's the playbook.


It's a great playbook, and I think it's admirable that they are now tightening restrictions even though they have already flattened the curve. But in reality, yes, I think that would be a tough sell in America. And I wonder if it's unrealistic. Is New Zealand going to stay locked down until there's a vaccine? Or can they seal the borders off well enough to remove distancing restrictions? Could America do that too?
   4797. . Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5937891)
Well, you did reply with "Okay. We'll kill your parents first."


That was a completely creepish response -- kind of par for the ol' course. No one uses "kill" as the verb for the deaths that result from carrying on during the various flu seasons.

I think Bob's point may be that if you shut down all conversation regarding comparative death totals, you quickly get into "if it saves even one life!!" territory, which is no way to make decisions.


Or you quickly get into, "He's comparing it with the flu, look, OMG he really is comparing it with the flu!!" territory

"Sheltering in place" for much longer is utterly unsustainable, which is why we're having the discussion in the first place. We don't "shelter in place" during flu seasons and as a result, thousands or tens of thousands of people die. That happens every single flu season. If we did what we're doing now every winter, we'd have saved probably 100,000 lives over the past 20 years. Probably more.
   4798. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: April 09, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5937895)
It's a great playbook, and I think it's admirable that they are now tightening restrictions even though they have already flattened the curve. But in reality, I think that would be a tough sell in America. And I wonder if it's unrealistic. Is New Zealand going to stay locked down until there's a vaccine?
Since New Zealand is pretty isolated it should be easier for them to enforce mandatory quarantines for anyone coming into the country.
   4799. tshipman Posted: April 09, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5937901)
Well, you did reply with "Okay. We'll kill your parents first." when PreservedFish dared to ask how much death is acceptable a few pages ago, so it seemed to me like you were making an argument something like that.


Because I ####### hate this discussion. We haven't even started Shelter in place, and already there's all this handwringing about when we can start killing off grandmas so the stock market can recover.

We aren't choosing between draconian measures and minimally acceptable losses. That's a false representation of reality. We're choosing between a relatively mild set of measures and a million deaths.

We haven't even committed to a nationwide lockdown, and people are already getting antsy about when it's going to end.
   4800. Snowboy Posted: April 09, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5937902)
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