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Friday, September 24, 2021
Vaxed, waxed, and ready for the WEEKEND OMNICHATTER!, for September 24-26, 2021
Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).
Hombre Brotani
Posted: September 24, 2021 at 02:40 PM | 141 comment(s)
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Cardinals have three 30-homer hitters for the second time (2004).
If Reyes does get the win, he'll be 10-8 in 2021, which seems like an awful lot of decisions for a pure reliever these days.
Could be a huge blow to the Cardinals, considering how well he's played (3.3 bWAR, 2.2 WAA in just 315 PA) in place of Paul DeJong.
EDIT: Maybe not, just gave up a 2-run homer to Sergio Alcantara.
With the Cardinals leading by two, he loaded the bases with just one out but then struck out the next two hitters to preserve the lead, his last batters faced before leaving after four scoreless innings with 7 Ks.
That is the Cardinals first hit batter in more than a month, and their 31-game streak with no hit batters is the longest in MLB since the Padres' 32-game streak in 1992.
Prior to the Cardinals' streak, they were actually on pace to set a new MLB record for most hit batsmen, currently held by the 2003 Devil Rays (95) and threatened by this year's Cubs, who have 93. That one by Reyes is the Cardinals 83rd of the year.
EDIT: and now a double, another run, 8-5.
This has to be statistically significant, doesn't it? That kind of turnaround can't happen by chance.
In related news, Padres reliever Austin Adams has continued to hit guys to a record pace. In September, he's plunked six batters in just four innings. He's also allowed eight runs in those four innings.
They did jettison a bunch of wild arms, but still most of the same guys who'd been hitting batters remained, and they all stopped hitting batters.
As of August 5, they'd hit 78 batters in 108 games, a pace of 117 (current record is 95, by the 2003 Rays). When their streak began, on Aug 21, they were still on pace to hit 110 batters---or 28 more over the rest of the season's 41 remaining games. They hit zero, until today, and it was by the thinnest of margins, a thread scraper.
And he went 2 for 4 today with a hr and 3 rbi, O'Neill could only go 1 for 4 with a hr and 2 rbi.
Cards with an 8 to 5 victory to extend their streak to 13, going for 14 tonight.
Meanwhile ESPN has an article up in which Hoyer claims the Cubs are going to be "very active" in the FA market. Granted, he doesn't say whether that means real players or a large set of 1-year fill-ins so he's probably not technically lying. But what a silly statement. He also went a bit far in refusing to commit to Wisdom, Schwindler and Ortega -- it's fine to use the old "everybody has to win a job" line but to mention that their age is a concern seems a bit much. (In fairness, that might have been part of the question.)
Anyway, there's no way to build from the current Cubs' roster to a competitive team. Even TB would find it challenging -- they'd have better pieces already in place. And given the Cubs have almost nothing in the high minors, the obvious (and correct) move is to see if those guys can repeat next year since they aren't blocking anybody anyway. It is sort of a "problem" for the Cubs:
C -- Contreras/Amaya
1B -- Schwindel
2B -- Madrigal
SS -- Hoerner
3B -- Wisdom
OF -- Happ/Ortega/Heyward/Brennan Davis at some point
bench -- Bote, Alcantara
That's a terrible team but they've got "might as well see what they can do" guys at pretty much every spot. A real CF or at least a real corner that pushes Heyward to the bench would be nice. And obviously you could sign real players for any of those IF/OF spots and still find solid playing time for Hoerner, Schwindel, et al.
For the record, I will be thrilled if we can get one average starter and one solid 400-PA bench player out of Schwindel, Widsom, Ortega, Hoerner
I said pretty much the second part today. I don't have an issue with split dh, but then they should be complete games.
That walk off grandslam by the Brewers pretty much really ruined any outside chance of the Cardinals winning the division. Not that there was any chance even then, but that is a two game magic number swing there, and if the Cardinals win that game, the magic number is now five and not three, with the Brewers only having 6 games against a non-Cardinal opponents(three of which is probably a busting for a division Dodgers)... (and there are only 3 games remaining between the two, they just completed a four game series)
The irony is that being up 6-0 early pretty much guarantees you'll see the worst guys from Boston's pen. Definitely a Perez siting is due. No sense in Cora throwing anyone decent out there unless the Sox manage to peg back the lead in the next couple of innings.
The winning streak is not looking too good at this point.
Safe to assume that the Red Sox will ditch their “lucky yellow uniforms” if they don’t make a comeback tonight? Maybe that tropical art deco look would work for the Marlins, but it has to be just about most unredsoxy design imaginable.
When these teams last met, the Padres were at 93% to make the playoffs, the Braves 8%. That has changed.
I like this Flaherty starts, Hudson relieves as the option, until we get faith in Flaherty. But if things pan out, the Cardinals might have a really good rotation going into the post season, and if they manage to win the one game playoff game, they have a chance to be as likely to win a series as any team in baseball.
That is just hilarious.
The one he hit tonight was gargantuan.
He’s a lot like Voit and everyone hates him too. The Cubs should pick Voit up this winter. Yankees have decided they like Rizzo more.
And it leaves me to ponder if 7-inning games are worse than extra-inning free runners.
I hate the 7 inning thing if the game is remotely in doubt. I know it's baseball and technically no game is impossible to come back, but anything that is within 4 runs with two innings to go, is still within doubt in my opinion.
Votto's the only active player who's drawn more than 134 walks in a season.
Wisdom Aug-Sept: 196/268/448, 89 OPS+ (with a 45% k-rate)
Wisdom pre-season ZiPS projection: 223/292/411, 82 OPS+
Wisdom ZiPS RoS: 228/296/453, 98 wRC+
Wisdom Steamer RoS: 213/286/412, 85 wRC+
Given the season's almost over, the RoS projections should be basically the 2022 projections except the (mild) age penatly hasn't been applied yet.
It is certainly true that Wisdom hits the ball very, very hard. Alas, he does not hit it very often. If he's on a 50-55 HR pace then he is also on a 275-300 strikeout pace. That's rather a lot of strikeouts.
cards down 2 in the seventh? no worries, they just start the inning with 4 straight hits to tie it.
this is some turnaround since earlier in the year.
dejong with a sac fly scores bader from 3rd, now they are ahead.
that double play only works if you run the benny hill sax music behind it ...
;-)
cards win!
wotta game ...
good night and good luck!
Edit: oops I was wrong on that. (For some reason I thought he only had a single in the ninth not the double)
There is a thought process that should go through a runner's head when caught in a rundown:
1. Are there less than two outs?
2. Are there other runners on base?
3. Am I Javy Baez?
If the answers are "yes" "yes" and "no" then your only goal is to stay alive as long as possible to allow other runners to advance. Bote instead of continuing to head home to draw a throw or at least get run down failed that test by trying the ol' deke and spin that only works like 1/3 of the time even if you are Javy Baez.
If you are a runner on 2nd base when a runner is caught between 3rd and home, your thought process is pretty simple:
1. How does my speed compare with Nelson Cruz?
Assuming that is a reasonably favorable comparison, the runner should advance to third. Of course it would be helpful if the runner caught between bases was not about to get himself out more quickly than he needed to.
If you are the batter coming into first base, your thought process is pretty simple:
1. I should advance to second if at all possible
2. However, since the play is right in front of me and I play for the Cubs, I should check to make sure the guy on second isn't still uselessly standing 3 feet from the bag. How stupid will it look if we run into a double play on a rundown?
Oh well, not like the Cubs were gonna win that one anyway.
3-2-5-4-2-8-6
Molina was involved in both the 3rd-home rundown of the runner on 3rd, and the 2nd-3rd rundown of the runner coming around from 1st base.
On the replay I was shocked to see Bader in there, which I hadn't noticed in real time. Just a ridiculous play.
for instance, there's the 1935 Cubs with 21 (MLB Network incorrectly listed the "1935 Pirates".)
and..... okay, that's the whole list.
Sept. 4-27 was the 1935 Cubs streak to climb from third place at 79-52 into first at 100-52, putting them 4 games up on the Cardinals with 2 to play.
the Cards then snagged the final two, meaningless, games of the regular season and the Cubs lost in the World Series.
Cubs future HOFers included C Gabby Hartnett, 2B Billy Herman, and OFs Chuck Klein, Kiki Cuyler, and Fred Lindstrom, (and HOMer Stan Hack).
1Bs Charlie Grimm, who debuted in 1916, and Phil Cavaretta, who lasted in MLB until 1955, also were on the squad.
as per the custom of the era, only 13 H had more than 26 AB and only 9 P tossed more than 23 innings.
Stanton GS
I was in my car when it happened and the radio announcers were so enamored with the concept that literally all nine Cardinal fielders were on the infield when the inning ended. And I'm thinking "what happens if there is a bad throw?" I get it's cool, but you might want to have someone backing up because there were still two live runners at all point in time.
At the same time, it's only fitting in that game that Harrison Bader was involved in that play.
Catcher: Carson Kelly
1B. Luke Voit
2B. Kolten Wong
SS
3B. Patrick wisdom
OF: Arozarena,Pham, adolis Garcia, laneThomas
SP: Lance lynn , sandy alcantara, Zac Gallen, Luke weaver, Austin gomber
RP: Crismatt, Ron Gant, Marco gonzales, Adam ottavino, mike Mayers
No obvious SS but there are many stories about Tatis sr begging the Cardinals to sign Tatis jr and they declined.
Rate wise .560/.592/1.00/1.592 (assuming I'm not messing up the math) (27 pa, 25 ab, 14 hits, 2 hr, 5 doubles, 1 walk and 1 hbp)
All told he has 14 hits in 25 at at bats, with 2 hr, 5 doubles, 5 rbi, 9 runs 2 stolen bases and of course playing gold glove quality defense in centerfield (with one mistake) And still one game to go for the week.
Your definition of frog to prince is interesting. Pham, Wong, Lynn, and a few others were already prince like when they left. I mean I made comments that Lynn was a legit possibility for 300 win pitcher simply because he was good enough to pitch on a team like the Cardinals going forward. They might have improved a bit in some weird way, but it wasn't like they were frogs. Wong is in his first season with a new team, and no matter how you construct it, is probably at best his third best season of his career(and depending on how you look at 2020, maybe his fifth best season of a 9 season career) But his stretch from 2018-2020 with the Cardinals on average is absolutely superior to what he's done since he left. And Pham has not remotely touched his 2017 season with the Cardinals since he left. Lynn in 2015 was at 61-39 at age 28, it's a stretch to think he is a 300 winner, but if you look at the history of 300 winners, he was on the 10% trajectory type of thing, a guy who could do it if things worked out without any hiccuups. (injury, recovery year and 2020 destroyed that chance... but in another universe, he doesn't miss 2016 and gets 16 wins, 2020 doesn't happen and he gets another 10 wins and we are looking at a 34 year old with 150 wins and pitching like a legit ace now... still a 10% longshot vs a 2% longshot that he is now)
He is the World's Most Special Boy.
Now it's looking like that if that didn't happen, there is a small possibility the Brewers are actually playing for games that matter (They still make the post season no matter what, but I am talking about there is an 8% possibility that the Brewers are the wild card team without that damn grand slam.... as of now, there is something like a .05% possibility that they are the wild card)
Lynn was a middle of the rotation starter churning out 2-3 WAR per year. He’s now an annual fixture in cy young discussions. Cards just let him walk.
Wong for sure was good for cards and continues the same. He was given away.
Nobody else had done much before being jettisoned
The cards create a ton of major league talent that never play much for us. At least they got goldschmidt. And O’Neill might finally win that Gonzales trade. They should be about even by end of next year with O’Neill likely to surge beyond that. I doubt Liberatore will ever best out Randy - he’ll have to be an all star to do it
Pham put up a 6.2 war season with the Cardinals the year before he was traded, not sure how you call that a frog. He was a talent which the team felt they had better value going forward relative to cost.
Lynn was not a middle of the rotation starter, he posted 565 innings at 128 era+ his last three seasons in St Louis. Since then he has posted 595 innings at 128 era+.... Not really seeing the difference there. (and note Lynn went through two other teams -- the Twins and Yankees-- before he received one single cy young vote as a Ranger)
I don't think you really understand the economics of baseball... without jettisoning Pham, the Cardinals don't get Carlson at 8mil less to play the position at twice the quality. Which of course freed the team to get Arenado.
It was a thought concept. People were always saying that "we'll never see another 300 win pitcher" and my argument was someone like Lynn, who at 28 had averaged 32 games started a year, who played for a team like the Cardinals, who already averaged 15 wins a year, and was probably going to be a better player over the next 5 to 10 years if healthy so might change that to 17 wins a year, will put themselves in a good position to reach 300...
It wasn't really about a particular player, but more about a particular arc of a player. 300 wins is not out of the future, the biggest factor is 1. being healthy for 15 seasons (and willing to go an extra 5) 2. playing for good teams so that you can out perform your 'win expectancy' a few years. Lynn was doing the first part and second part, he was playing for good teams and staying healthy, and at age 28 he had 61 wins, not a huge amount, but he had gone 4 consecutive seasons with 29 or more games started... A good pitcher, for a good team that averages 30 starts a season is very likely to win 15 games a year. Some years more, this makes up for the season or two that they only go 25 or so games... as long as they avoid the two season injury, they should still be okay.
You always take the under on a stat that is based upon a 20 year career for a player that is under 30 years old, that is a given. I'll take the under on Trout hitting 500 homeruns. I hope I'm wrong on it, but it accentuates the point.
Note... that my be a bit of an exaggeration as if someone asked me to bet on that, I probably go with the over, but I'm not sure if that is my heart or logic talking at that point in time.
He adds another triple, because why not.
There is a small chance he'll lead or tie the league in triples, homeruns, have 24 steals (although since the Angels are out of it, it would be funny for him to just go for 30/30) and just randomly win 9 games as a pitcher. and have a 100 runs/rbi season
I do not see how there is anybody in baseball that challenges him for mvp. Regardless of how the rest of the season goes.
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