Verducci: Lack of Success for Japanese Stars Opens Debate About Next Wave

What does the 16-year history of transitions from Japan to the states mean for Darvish’s market? Not as much as you might think. One executive evaluated Darvish as a No. 2 starter. Another described him as “a middle- to top-of-the rotation starter now. He has the size, strength and age to overcome some of the transition problems. And if he does come out this year, there [are] not a whole lot of starting pitchers on the market, so that works in his favor.”

Darvish, a long-strider with a three-quarters arm slot, throws a fastball in the mid-90s, a hard-breaking slider or cutter, curveball and changeup, has exceptional command, strikes out more than a batter per inning and rarely gives up home runs. He throws with a slight “wrist wrap” as he takes the ball behind his body, adding to the impression that his pitching style evokes a taller version of David Cone. Like many Japanese aces, he often runs up big pitch counts with extra days of rest in between. In 2010 alone he threw 140 pitches or more in a game nine times—more than every major league pitcher combined over the past nine years. This year he hit 140 just once, but still reached 120 pitches 15 times. No major league pitcher has thrown 15 120-pitch games in a season since 2005, when Livan Hernandez did so.

Darvish figures to command a posting fee between Iwakuma’s $19.1 million and Matsuzaka’s $51 million—and closer to Dice-K territory.

When another executive was asked if the checkered history of other NPB pitchers would depress Darvish’s value, he replied, “Remarkably, no. In the landscape of a competitive market, people turn a blind eye to history or believe this is the one guy who is the exception to the rule—that somehow this one guy is more capable than all the others we know about. It happens with all free agents. We establish two values for a player now: what we call his fair market value—what his true worth is—and what we think he might get on the open market. Those tend to be two very different numbers.”