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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Walt Davis on Projections

Walt Davis is one of the most insightful posters on the site. Here’s a great post about projections.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 16, 2019 at 07:23 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2019 at 03:16 AM (#5815950)
My name up in lights! Ma would be proud.

Any chance this insight and blog fame qualifies me for a $2 M contract to run the O's?
   2. Obo Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5815958)
Yes.
   3. depletion Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:24 AM (#5815959)
How about the 0's? Do I get to run the 0's?
   4. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5815961)
Special Assistant to Edward Sharpe
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5815970)
If we're talking about the O's, it probably qualifies you for a lineup spot.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2019 at 06:26 PM (#5816018)
If we're talking about the O's, it probably qualifies you for a lineup spot.

Fair point but I'd prefer $2 M to "lead" them to 45 wins than $550 K to get beaned by some A-ball ... err, ML reliever trying to impress in some intra-squad game.
   7. bbmck Posted: February 18, 2019 at 03:05 AM (#5816044)
The main issue with projections is that an outlier likely benefits the people who publish the projections. It's far more likely someone will write about an ~80 win projection for the Cubs than ~90 wins. Poking around places that stand to lose millions of dollars with ~80 wins for an over/under they are using ~90 wins. If anyone has faith in the ~80 win projection even with record in 1-run games, injuries, deadline acquisitions and other randomness you're looking at a ~75% chance to win $100 on a $110 bet which is a pretty good deal, move the decimal place according to your disposable income and risk tolerance.
   8. jingoist Posted: February 18, 2019 at 09:24 AM (#5816060)
Wow, Walt.
That is one impressive article (should be published as such) on the foibles of accurate projections.
I am continuously impressed by the sagacity and quality of the postings at this site.
   9. eric Posted: February 18, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5816061)
"lead" them to 45 wins


Buddy, you need a lesson on how projections work.
   10. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 18, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5816078)
If the O’s add Walt to their roster, he could drop them to 45 wins. When we talk about the worst fielders not having too big an impact, we’re considering guys like Gary Sheffield who still make the vast majority of routine plays. Putting some ordinary person out in the field would make things very ugly.
   11. I Am Not a Number Posted: February 18, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5816095)
Do I get to run the 0's?

Is that any different than running the O's? They should formally replace the cursive O with a 0 (the one with the line through it) until the franchise deserves better.
   12. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5816110)
1988: Orioles start the season 0-21.

The Orioles came up short in all categories again Wednesday night and are now 0-14 in 1988, which is why there was a banner hanging in the center-field bleachers at County Stadium that read:

"0-162 . . . That's Why They Call Them the O's."


LA Times
   13. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: February 18, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5816150)
Walt, you know this already, but you do great posts. Keep it up! :)
   14. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: February 18, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5816192)
Poking around places that stand to lose millions of dollars with ~80 wins for an over/under they are using ~90 wins

the latest Caeser's Palace over unders have 7 teams (including the Cubs) with an O/U >90 and 6 teams with an O/U < 75

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