User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.8048 seconds
66 querie(s) executed
| ||||||||
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
| ||||||||
Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, October 24, 2021Was This Red Sox Season a Sign of Things to Come, or Just a Surprising One-off?
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 24, 2021 at 07:05 PM | 20 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags: red sox |
Login to submit news.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: Sources: Mets, batting champ Jeff McNeil reach $50M extension
(6 - 2:34pm, Jan 28) Last: Walt Davis Hall of Merit: Ranking Right Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (18 - 2:32pm, Jan 28) Last: Chris Cobb Newsblog: Eight-time Gold Glove 3B Scott Rolen makes Baseball Hall of Fame (158 - 2:15pm, Jan 28) Last: kcgard2 Newsblog: Blue Jays to move fences in at Rogers Centre, but raise walls (3 - 1:43pm, Jan 28) Last: The Yankee Clapper Newsblog: MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects (10 - 1:11pm, Jan 28) Last: Cris E Newsblog: Sinclair’s Sports Channels Prepare Bankruptcy, Putting Team Payments at Risk (25 - 1:00pm, Jan 28) Last: Cris E Newsblog: A radical remodel of local sports TV may come sooner than expected | theScore.com (2 - 12:53pm, Jan 28) Last: Cris E Newsblog: 2023 NBA Regular Season Thread (193 - 12:28pm, Jan 28) Last: kcgard2 Newsblog: OT - 2022 NFL thread Part II (195 - 10:53am, Jan 28) Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Newsblog: Braves extend manager Brian Snitker (1 - 9:31am, Jan 28) Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Hall of Merit: Ranking Left Fielders in the Hall of Merit - Discussion thread (80 - 9:12am, Jan 28) Last: Chris Cobb Newsblog: Orioles acquire Cole Irvin in trade with Athletics (19 - 4:57am, Jan 28) Last: A triple short of the cycle Newsblog: Sources: Rays, Pete Fairbanks agree to 3-year, $12M extension (4 - 1:16am, Jan 28) Last: John Reynard Hall of Merit: Reranking Left Fielders Ballot (4 - 11:50pm, Jan 27) Last: Rob_Wood Newsblog: Gary Peters, two-time White Sox All-Star, dies at 85 (15 - 10:04pm, Jan 27) Last: baxter |
|||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.8048 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6048786)Didn't RTFA of course but these are not the same. The Red Sox might be able to maintain their 2021 level and still get beaten out by 3 better, equal or nearly equal teams.
Anyway, for 2022, my first key question is Sale. It's probably too much to expect him to bounce back to his old self but can he bounce back to 180 IP, 120 ERA+?
On contract decisions, you exercise the options on Schwarber, Vazquez and Perez but probably not Richards (who survived a season! But $10 M is a bit rich.) You've got a bit of a logjam with JDM, Schwarber and Dalbec (and Verdugo, Renfroe) so possibly explore a trade there. Make a serious run at extending Devers.
The Sale question largely answers the ERod question. Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Perez, Pivetta and a body seems solid enough if Sale is good. It may be ERod vs exercising Richards' option.
There's obviously a lot of risk for 2022 -- Sale's health, Eovaldi turning back into Eovaldi, Pivetta turning back into Pivetta, Arroyo back to Arroyo, which Schwarber do you get, is JDM gonna hit the wall at 34?
My offseason wish list would be a top CF (allows Hernandez back to 2B/super-sub) but they don't really exist so then a top 2B. After that, obviously it would be great to add a top starter or, rarest of beasties, a reliable excellent reliever.
Now, if Sale is gonna be average or can only be relied on for 15 starts, then the need for a top starter goes up quite a bit and this all looks a good bit less sustainable.
1. Rodriguez will not be back.
2. JDM will not opt out.
3. Schwarber will not be back.
4. Either Devers or Dalbec will be traded. The other will be the 2022 3B.
Where did they get this number? Sounds way too high.
I'm going to assume that Devers is not traded this offseason.
Cot's projects $151M with all the arb and pre-arb guys FWIW. I think maybe he means $190M if they bring all their FA back, and don't bring anyone new in.
Honestly, league average production for 180 IP, while pricey given his contract, is to me what we should hope for. Anything beyond that is gravy. And while such a performance would be pricey, at least it would be 180 IP covered and to me that incredibly valuable. If you look at what we rolled out there this season as a rotation, the fact we won 92 games is all underpinned by--first and foremost--not having 1-2 black holes in the rotation.
I don't get the $190 million figure thrown out either, unless they've extended Devers or signed Schwarber as part of that. Cot's has them projected at $174 and while that's probably a bit low, it seems about right. (Though looking at their spreadsheet, they don't seem to show Xander as having an opt-out after 2022, though I may be mis-reading the sheet.) I will also say they're projecting Devers for 2022 at $10.25 million in arb and that seems like it may well be off by a bunch.
TE's wish list:
1) Pick up Vasquez's option. No sense having to upset the apple cart and get a new catcher in for the staff, especially considering it's a 1/$7 deal.
2) Shop Renfroe. Because he has some control left (2 more arb years), he may have some value.
3) Try to sign Schwarber (this is more about post-2022 than 2022). I wouldn't go crazy with the AAV unless the years were short, but of you offset the signing with a Renfroe trade, the net payout isn't that bad, and it is a hedge against Martinez falling off the cliff/injury.
4) I'd let EdRod walk unless the price is much more reasonable than I'd imagine it to be, but offer him the QO--at worst, him on a 1-year deal for that amount is not awful.
5) Try to extend Devers/Xander. I suspect you might be able to swing the former, but suspect the latter is following a Mookie path and we'll be exploring trade options this winter as a result if there's good offers for him. (Of course, trading Xander opens up all sorts of other problems in the infield, etc.)
I didn't realize how many guys we would still have under control for 2022/2023--we're not in bad shape, but obviously there's work to be done. Pretty much from 2023 forward, though, they have a ton of payroll flexibility, so I'm hoping they realize that signing Devers/Xander to long-term deals would be worth their while.
Cot's Contracts - Red Sox
In all the discussion about how good or bad the Red Sox are, I think something Red Sox fans miss is most teams have 2-3-4 black holes in their rotation. Even the Dodgers ended the season shy of starting pitching. Busting through the salary cap is no longer a guarantee of having depth.
It's interesting the ways in which sports media carries management's water with the unspoken assumption that staying under $210 mil--which is not even the CBT threshold for 2022--is the standard.
I didn't realize it was a mutual option for Schwarber, makes sense. I suspect Schwarber would love to be back. I have no idea what he's gonna get.
EDIT: On Devers ... he's obviously getting a big raise but he made just $4.6 M this year so $10 M is already a raise of more than 100% and it's rare a player will do substantially better than that in arb. Baez got $5 M after a 6 WAR season then a raise to $10 M after another 6 WAR season. Corey Seager went from $4 to $7.6; Story from $5 to $9 (after back-to-back 6 WAR seasons); Correa from $5 to $8 but injuries were involved there ... still the same WAR as Devers this year.
In 2022, Sale will be five years removed from his last season with more than 160 IP.
Last year six pitchers total in the AL reached 180 IP.
I think it's extremely optimistic to set 180 IP---league average production or otherwise---as a hope for Sale in 2022.
It's fair enough that with the way things are trending, even 180 innings is a big ask but the question remains -- is Sale a #1.5 starter (poor #1 to good #2) or is he a #3-4 or is it 15 starts of whatever you get and on the IL the rest of the time? Other than HRs, he looked pretty good in his regular season return.
A quality Sale and a sustaining Eovaldi is a good front of the rotation and the rest looks pretty well sorted. If you decide to pencil in Sale for just 15 starts, then you want to find a solid #2. (Which could be Houck or Whitlock I suppose.)
Whitlock will be an interesting decision. I wouldn't count on him moving back to starting. It's true he was a starter in the minors but he also missed time at the end of 2019 and of course did whatever he did during 2020. They've found a successful role for him, it's quite possible they'll decide to leave him there. Have there been other recent young minors starters who spent an entire successful season in a ML bullpen then into the rotation the next season? It used to happen a lot, I assume it must still happens occasionally but nobody's springing to mind (which doesn't mean much).
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main