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Friday, June 17, 2022

Weekend OMNICHATTER for June 17-19, 2022

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: June 17, 2022 at 01:53 PM | 119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6082496)
The Phillies' Ranger Suarez had a 1-2-3 first inning for only the second time all year---and first since April 27th---today vs. the Nats, in this, his 13th start of the year.

I care because I cut him from my fantasy squad this week after being frustrated by the constant parade of baserunners against him (1.50 WHIP) and his seeming inability to provide anything other than a mediocre performance.

In his 12 previous starts he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs only once (5), but only twice did he pitch more than five innings while allowing fewer than 3 earned runs.

Just a string of 3-to-6-inning starts allowing 2-4 runs, and boatloads of baserunners.
   2. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 02:21 PM (#6082501)
Luis Severino missed last night’s start against the Rays due to potential Covid symptoms, but has since tested negative and is making the trip to Toronto. The player who replaced Severino on the Yankees roster, Ryan Weber, has been designated for assignment, but his 2-hit, 1-run, 3.2 innings of work last night, along with his good record at Scranton, should get him some offers.
   3. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6082510)
With 12 Ks in 6 ip in his last start, vs. the Pirates, and so far 7 Ks in 3 ip vs. the Cubs, Charlie Morton now has 19 strikeouts in his last 9 innings.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6082511)
In a nearly annual tradition, something goes wrong with my (all international?) MLB accounts. Yesterday afternoon I couldn't log in. This morning after I shut down my VPN, I can log in but it tells me all of the games are blacked out. Oh well. If this follows its usual path, their customer service will (a) tell me how to reset my password even though there's nothing wrong with the password and (b) explain the blackout rules although they don't apply. Then a couple of days later, everything will be fine.
   5. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6082513)
Just a string of 3-to-6-inning starts allowing 2-4 runs, and boatloads of baserunners.

When all is said and done, another typical Ranger Suarez performance: 5.2 ip, 9 baserunners, 3er. He exits in line for a win, with the Phils up 5-3.
   6. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6082517)
(b) explain the blackout rules although they don't apply.

I'm over a month into being blacked out from all New York-based team games, as my IP address is showing me 150 miles southwest of my actual location, and MLB says to contact my internet provider, my internet provider says to contact my router manufacturer, my router manufacturer says it's got nothing to do with them.

A few folks said that MLB Extra Innings will "override" your blackouts if you explain your situation, but my multiple attempts---including asking them directly to do so---have been fruitless.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6082520)
This does happen to me almost every year (maybe last year it didn't) and it just "goes away." Never any useful response from customer service.

Reminds me, hadn't checked if it will work through my phone. Whaddya know, phone works fine.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6082521)
Oh god, Cubs are wearing those horrible Wrigleyville uniforms.
   9. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:01 PM (#6082526)
Charlie Morton hits his NL-leading 9th batter of the year, and the 147th of his career, tops among all active pitchers, and 35 more than next in line, Johnny Cueto.

Morton has led his league in HBP four times previously, which seems like a lot. I guess that happens when you have a ridiculous curveball.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6082532)
Maybe time for an old farts update:

Miggy 294/332/371, 106 OPS+ (3 HR in 208 PA)
Pujols 210/315/361, 96
Votto 206/342/375, 92
Cruz 261/337/401, 114
Yadi 213/225/294, 49
K Suzuki 257/315/389, 72
Lowrie 207/278/304, 72
Y Gurriel 218/269/385, 82
Cano don't ask

Verlander 8-2, 194 ERA+
Hill 2-4, 95
Greinke 0-4, 80
Waino 5-4, 137
Morton 4-3, 77 (improving some today)

So the hitters have caught up to the pitchers some but none of them having a Verlander/Wainwright type season yet. Miggy, Pujols, Votto, Cruz have combined for 19 HR in 776 PA although Cruz's power may have finally arrived this year.
   11. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:13 PM (#6082533)
Votto 206/342/375, 92

After 5/1's game, Votto went on the IL and he was slashing .122/.278/.135 with 0 HRs (22 games). He came back on 5/20 and since then is hitting .279/.398/.581 with all 5 of this year's HRs (25 games). I recall him having some pretty notable slow starts, but this is quite the turnaround after getting healthy.
   12. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6082535)
That .225 OBP by Molina is especially painful.

Back in his prime Molina used to walk between 6% (about average) and 9% (above average) of the time, but it dropped under 6% in 2017, to 3.9% in 2020, and now it's an absurd 1.5%.
   13. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6082539)
Greinke 0-4, 80


In his last four starts, Greinke has given up 21 runs in 18 innings.
   14. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:26 PM (#6082542)
Cubs' bullpen seems to be performing adequately today...
   15. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:40 PM (#6082545)
Cubs could break the Braves' streak at 14... but they have to score a run first.
   16. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6082547)
Cubs with the walk, sac bunt, steal of third, and sac fly to manufacture the game's only run so far in the bottom of the 8th.

Can the pen hold it?
   17. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6082548)
That's what the Braves get for removing the starting pitcher who'd allowed three hits/no walks over 7 shutout innings, at just 94 pitches.

Then the reliever walks the leadoff batter.

Haven't the Braves been watching guys like Mikolas and Tyler Anderson zooming way over 100 pitches when they're still pitching well?
   18. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6082549)
Cubs do not have a save yet in the month of June...
   19. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6082554)
Bases loaded and two out in the 9th, David Robertson trying to end it against Orlando Arcia...
   20. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 05:02 PM (#6082556)
Grounder to first, the streaks are over!
   21. Snowboy Posted: June 17, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6082569)
Covid update: for this weekend's NYY@TOR series, there have been _no_ players put on the restricted list for being unvaccinated against covid.
   22. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 06:14 PM (#6082575)
As was the case for the Yankees 1st trip to Toronto in May.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: June 17, 2022 at 06:18 PM (#6082576)
Cubs win 1-0 against a red hot Braves team, not really any result anyone would have predicted, I know baseball gambling is not nearly as prevalent as other sports, but I imagine the house lost out on this one.
   24. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2022 at 07:33 PM (#6082588)
two sloppy plays by the Marlins put two Mets aboard in the first, and the Mets radio crew informs us that tonight is the first time that Francisco Lindor's mom has been to Citi Field. also that she has been ailing, and arrived at the game in a wheelchair along with Lindor's wife and.....

Cue the Hollywood script - Lindor hits a 3-run HR, and he is GIDDY
   25. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 08:36 PM (#6082597)
2 HRs (426 & 411 feet) so far tonight by the Nationals Josh Bell, who is having a good season. Bell will be 30 in August, and whether the Nationals seek to retain his services or move him at the trade deadline may say something about how they view their rebuilding schedule.
   26. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6082598)
Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk is listed as 5’8” & 245 pounds, but looks shorter & heavier to my eye - a real fire plug. He may be the most unathletically looking current MLB player, but he’s quite the hitter so far this season. John Kruk would be proud.
   27. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 08:50 PM (#6082600)
Stanton & LeMahieu HR back-to-back to stretch the Yankees lead to 5-1 in Toronto.

EDIT: Followed by back-to-back doubles by Gleyber Torres & Joey Gallo. 6-1.

EDIT II: Rizzo Grand Slam makes it 10-1.
   28. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:02 PM (#6082602)
What were the odds of both the Cubs & Orioles winning 1-0? The Commissioner may need to investigate those games.
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:07 PM (#6082603)
Going into tonight's game, the Blue Jays' first reliever had an ERA of 2.59. A third of an inning later, it's now 4.38
   30. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:11 PM (#6082605)
I still support replay but - man, they make it difficult.

Mets have 1st and 2nd, nobody out, ball hit to the CF wall. ump mistakenly thinks it's a catch, so runners have to go backwards.

after realizing the ball was a hit, the imbeciles in NY decide that McNeil only moves from 2nd to 3rd base on a 400-foot "single." I mean, Ernie Lombardi would have scored on this play. the only interesting part would have been if the Mets scored two runs, not just one. but with McNeil clogged on third, the runner on first only moves up one base - and the batter can't be put anywhere but on first.
   31. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:13 PM (#6082606)
What were the odds of both the Cubs & Orioles winning 1-0? The Commissioner may need to investigate those games.

OTOH if the Orioles can survive their starters, 6 of their 7 top relievers in terms of innings pitched are sporting ERA+ numbers of 467, 231, 231, 292, 153 and 146. Too bad they're out of most of their games before the bullpen can even come into play.
   32. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6082608)
I have no idea why Oli Marmol continues to make TJ McFarland an option in a close ballgame with runners on base---especially after a day off when all the relievers are rested! Comes into a 3-1 game and moments later it's 6-1.

This is a guy with an ERA over 7.00, 1.70 WHIP, and 5.6K/9. It's as if he wants to keep giving him chances to justify the decision to sign him to a $2.5M deal in the offseason.

Both lefties and righties have an OPS over .900 against him. The first batter he sees in a game is hitting .450/.500/.650.

With RISP, his OPS against is *1.418*

And this is the guy Marmol brings into a close game in the 7th with men on base. With Cabrera, Helsely, Gallegos, and four other guys better than McFarland available.

Final line: 3 batters faced, 3 hits, 2 runs allowed, and 1 inherited runner allowed to score.
   33. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6082610)
This ump calling the Phillies- Natinals game is terrible. At first, he was missing strikes on the edges but then started calling obvious balls strikes.
He called a 3-0 foot too high ball a strike to Harper. It sure looked like a pitch around. But then he hung a curve that Harper ripped for a double to tie the game so I guess it worked out.
   34. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:53 PM (#6082616)
Anthony Rendon has a reasonable stat line for the Angels so far: 20 HR, 89 RBI, .252 AVG, and 117 OPS+ in 155 games.

of course, those are 2020-2022 stats combined, and they paid him to do that every year.
so $90M for 155 reasonable games - not a bargain.

he'll return next spring, with any luck - and he just turned age 32!
plus he's only guaranteed another $153 million in the next 4 years.

what could go wrong?

   35. Banta Posted: June 17, 2022 at 09:55 PM (#6082617)
So, uh, weird little thing. SNY just showed Chris Bassitt’s ERA for the season at 4.01. It stood out because I remembered he got under 4 in his last 8 IP, 0 ER outing. If I google search him, gamelogs that come up show 3.89 as I remembered but going to baseball-reference or MLB shows the 4.01. Now I’m assuming a previously unearned run was now charged as earned, but it wouldn’t be his last start because no runs were scored then against him. I didn’t realize they would change a scoring decision that much later or is it some sort of a weird database issue? Or something else I’m not thinking of?
   36. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:02 PM (#6082622)
Matt Vierling hits his second homer of the night against the Nats, giving the Phils a 6-5 lead. I have no idea who he is, and neither do you, probably.
   37. salvomania Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:21 PM (#6082628)
Marmol's decision to piss away the close game by bringing in McFarland comes back to bite the team in the ass---Cardinals score 4 in the 9th, all the baserunners coming with 2 out, but fall just short, 6-5, as Goldschmidt is frozen on a 3-2 pitch from Houck right over the plate with the tying runner on second.
   38. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:27 PM (#6082629)
Joey Gallo’s 2-run HR to RF (403 feet) makes it an even dozen runs for the NYY. Good enough most days.
   39. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:27 PM (#6082630)
Matt Vierling hits his second homer of the night against the Nats, giving the Phils a 6-5 lead. I have no idea who he is, and neither do you, probably.

mixed blessing of playing NL-only Rotisserie baseball - Vierling is owned in our league, so we all know who he is. and we know that he hit well late last year - .324 in 71 AB.

but when they name the AL All-Stars next month, there will be a couple of names where I'm like, "Hmm, is he a hitter or a pitcher?" because most/all of us don't follow The Junior Circuit.

it is a weird tradeoff.
   40. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:28 PM (#6082631)
Phils throw away the lead. Extras in Washington.
   41. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 17, 2022 at 10:59 PM (#6082636)
Vierling is 25 yo AAAA versatile OF, who faked a game at 2B, with good speed. He’s already exceeded expectations of a 5th round pick. In this modern age of minimal benches, he might hang around for 6-8 years because of his versatility.
   42. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 17, 2022 at 11:01 PM (#6082638)
Joey Gallo’s 2-run HR to RF (403 feet) makes it an even dozen runs for the NYY. Good enough most days.

What I love about Gallo is the way he saves his hits for when they really matter, usually when the Yankees are about 5 or more runs ahead.
   43. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 17, 2022 at 11:55 PM (#6082645)
Angels no-hit through six innings. AGAIN.
   44. Snowboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 12:11 AM (#6082647)
Justin Upton released by Angels this year. Picked up by Seattle, debuting tonight for them, ironically against LAA.
Hitting in the 5th inning, SEA (ROOTS Sports) announcers are waxing poetic about his career, about 324 career HR in 1800 games, many seasons of 30 HR, many others with 20+, All-Star games, silver sluggers, being a first round pick...no, wait a 1-1: first overall pick in the 2005 draft, out of high school in Virginia.

Just then, he gets hit in the head by a pitch. A changeup that got away from Michael Lorenzen. Straight to the temple of his batting helmet.
The Mariners broadcast doesn't say much but gasp for a few minutes.
Upton is down for a long time.
He is eventually helped up, and walks off the field straight down into the clubhouse.
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: June 18, 2022 at 12:14 AM (#6082648)
I dealt directly at times with the owner of the Knicks 20 years ago, and know too much about other failures.

look at Jerry Jones and the Cowboys.

no reputable company outside of sports (I like to think) would tolerate decades of failure and incompetence. heads, obviously, must roll.

but they never will - not Moreno, not Dolan, not Jones, not Snyder, etc.

I do feel for the fans of those franchises, as they strike me as hostages.

The Mets lucked into getting out from awful owners to - while he's not my pick for Man of The Year in any category - at least has the financial capital that matches the size of his market AND it does not yet appear that he is trying to run the damn team himself like these other guys.
   46. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:01 AM (#6082649)
A changeup that got away from Michael Lorenzen.

In-broadcast speed gun said 91 mph; USA Today says 90.6. That's an average cutter from him, or a low-end fastball.
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6082678)
Since I love talking about my team, how about that Brendan Donovan kid? I don't have pi anymore, but he has to be on a short list of favorite roy candidates right now, the issue of course if he'll get more playing time, and the fact that he isn't a touted rookie (I don't see him anywhere on the Cardinals top 30 prospect list) he's more a Joe McEwing or Bo Hart right now. Guy in the right place at the right time and since he's not scouted as well as other players, able to take advantage of that.
   48. Snowboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6082686)
Justin Upton penciled into the lineup of SEA's first game today, hitting sixth as DH.
That's a relief, he left last night's game after being hit in the head by a pitch.
   49. The Duke Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6082692)
Donovan looks to be ok. He doesn't appear to be someone who the league will "figure out". Seems to cover the plate well, hits to all
Fields. He's the perfect utility guy but he's lacking in defensive chops and isn't particularly fast. He's a lesser version of Edman but with one huge advantage - he's left handed. I haven't seen him play one position well yet. Bad first baseman, bad right fielder, passable at 2nd and SS. I wonder if they should try him at catcher.
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6082693)
Not sure I get the odds on bb-ref. Cardinals have an 89% odds to make the post season, the Brewers who are 1 game back, and widely considered the better team coming into this season have 29% chance. That just doesn't really track. I'm a fan of the Cardinals and do think they were underrated by the oddsmakers coming into the season, but still, that seems a bit extreme. The third place Giants have 88.9% chance of making the post season, the second place Braves have an 74.3% chance. Heck the Phillies with a worse record than the Brewers have a 47% chance.

Considering that in the Central it's really just a two team race, it seems a bit weird to penalize the Brewers that much... and considering that the central is probably the weakest division in the league, it's very likely that as the season goes on, the Brewers and Cards are going to exploit their records against the lesser divisional teams that they have to face.
   51. The Duke Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:10 PM (#6082694)
Brewers let Cain get to ten year service time and then DFA him.

I always laugh at teams doing this - if the costs weren't spread over 30 teams and they had to bear the costs themselves, teams would never do this.

Don't get me wrong, it's a great thing to do but it isn't a great thing the Brewers are doing - they only bear 1/30 the cost of the decision.
   52. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6082695)
Donovan looks to be ok. He doesn't appear to be someone who the league will "figure out". Seems to cover the plate well, hits to all
Fields. He's the perfect utility guy but he's lacking in defensive chops and isn't particularly fast. He's a lesser version of Edman but with one huge advantage - he's left handed. I haven't seen him play one position well yet. Bad first baseman, bad right fielder, passable at 2nd and SS. I wonder if they should try him at catcher.



He's +1 rfield overall. I don't think that he has hurt the team at any position he's played, just been average to decent. No mistakes, but obviously not Goldy or Arenado or Sosa or Edman at the positions he plays. But also not Lonnie Smith.

My thing is that he wasn't even on the top 30 prospect list, he was drafted in 2018 and covid might have slowed down his recognition as a major league player, but there is nothing in his game that indicates he isn't a 2-3 regular war player. (he's playing at a rate of a 6 war player, but that happens over a short sample size) The Cardinals brought him up because he played well but there was nothing on his resume indicating he was going to play like an all star, so they had no worry about his playing time. At the same time he's gotta be on the short list now for roy consideration. He reminds me of Matt Carpenter, with a better glove. (less power also)
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6082696)
(for the record, I do wish that game chat was just two per week, the weekday game chat is just too short and doesn't allow detailed discussions)
   54. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 18, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6082705)
When Aaron F. Hicks can clear the bases with a line drive double off Cy Young Alek Manoah, I'm getting the feeling that things are going right for America's Team. (smile)
   55. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 04:33 PM (#6082707)
#47 ... it's not easy to find but there is a list of rookie players at b-r and you can sort it by WAR. Unfortunately that's career WAR so be careful (AJ Puk is still a rookie for example). Jeremy Pena (2.9 WAR) and Julio Rodriguez (2.1) lead overall and Donavon does indeed lead the NL at 1.8 WAR and leads in OPS too. Alek Thomas (1.3) is probably the favorite with more name recognition. Morel (just 0.7 due to bad DRS) has started getting some national attention so he might make a run.

Oh yeah, that's just position players. Down to the pitcher table ... Cinci has a SP named Graham Ashcraft at 1.6 WAR; Cards have Andre Pallante at 1.4 WAR and lots of relievers.

I've "discovered" Spencer Strider of the Braves. He's a 23-yo pitcher who either was being used as the "not starter" that comes in after the opener or the generic mid-game innings eater then was moved into the rotation -- 20 IP in 4 starts which is a "legit" starter these days. Anyway he had 11 relief appearances, 24 IP, just 6 ER with 37 K (!), 14 H, 11 BB, 0 HR. In 4 starts it's 19.2 IP, 31 K, 8 R (6 ER), 11 H, 10 BB, 2 HR. It all adds up to 44 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.3 WAR and 13 K/9. That will start getting noticed soon enough.
   56. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 04:33 PM (#6082708)
Jody ... JOOOODY Davis ... King of the Wild Frontier
   57. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6082710)
Looking at Strider, I'm reminded of the old approach of introducing young starters. I don't know if it was the Braves' intent but a fairly common pattern in those days was to send a rookie starter to the pen for a half-season or more to pitch 2-3 inning lower leverage relief stints to learn how to pitch a bit. Current usage almost makes that a given these days whether it's 3-4 inning starts or 3-4 innings "starts after some reliever leaves."

The last team I remember doing this (or I thought they were, not so sure in retrospect) was the Astros of the Oswalt era. Scott Elarton had been up a couple years before, mostly in relief for his first two years. He wasn't too good in the rotation though, maybe they should have left him in the pen. Oswalt was pretty clearly being handled this way, but it was just 8 relief appearances in his first month then into the rotation for 20 starts. I thought maybe Tim Redding too but he doesn't fit the pattern at all.
   58. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 18, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6082714)
As I mentioned in another thread, the Brewers did that with Corbin Burnes, who was a starter in college and the minors but pitched mostly in relief his first couple of seasons in the majors.
   59. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 18, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6082716)
I get to listen to the SNY team today as a regional antenna TV station is airing the Mets Marlins game. A treat to watch this particular Mets team and a great joy listening to Gary, Keith, and Ron
   60. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6082718)
Classic millenial name matchup in Boston tonight as Dakota Hudson of the Cards goes up against Kutter Crawford of the Sox.
   61. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 05:39 PM (#6082719)
Boy Corbin Burnes 2019 -- 49 IP, 70 K ... and 70 H. Ks = Hs is not that uncommon these days (e.g. 1 H and 1 K per inning) but it's pretty weird when both are 13/9. With 17 HRs!! That guy had future CYA written all over him. :-)
   62. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 18, 2022 at 05:42 PM (#6082720)
Just learned that Amed Rosario is the Mets SS single year leader for RBI. What does that say about the Mets history?
   63. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:03 PM (#6082727)
SNY guys just corrected that fact by mentioning Jose Reyes. I feel better about that one
   64. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:15 PM (#6082729)
But only one year better than Rosario (81 vs. 72 RBI).
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:19 PM (#6082730)
#55 it's just weird that Donovan is doing so well. He feels like a "late" call up to fill space(even though he's been on the roster pretty much from the beginning of the season) , but apparently there are not any rookies worth a crap so far in the NL. Add in that he isn't actually a prospect, not in the traditional sense. As I mentioned he's just filler but apparently he's much better than expected or at least playing better than expected.

If he ends up being Matt Carpenter part two nobody is going to complain.
   66. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:36 PM (#6082734)
Barring some disaster Linder will shatter that RBI record this year.
   67. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:41 PM (#6082735)
For reasons unknown to anyone but Leo Durocher, the Nats have let Josiah Gray throw 117 pitches in 6 innings (just 4 Ks, 3 BB and 1 H). As a stark contrast, Aaron Nola is on 60 pitches through 5. Scoreless tie.
   68. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 06:55 PM (#6082737)
apparently there are not any rookies worth a crap so far in the NL

Not exactly ... I mean 1+ WAR in 1/3 of a season is plenty good. What is true is that there aren't any good NL rookies who have been in the lineup for the entire season so far. So Donavan's 1.8 WAR is in 159 PA so a 7/650 pace (don't imagine he's expected to keep it up). Thomas has 1.3 in just 136 PA, so a 6+ pace. The only guy near the top in NL rookie WAR who's been playing the whole way if Geraldo Perdomo who is the DBacks SS. Even he hasn't hit 200 PA yet and he's a bit above-average WAR wise.

So it raises the question of "who were the big-name NL rookies when the season started?" No names jump out at me but maybe Joey Bart and he was a disaster, now in the minors. Whether that's a terrible sign for the NL's future or just means their big prospects are still a year away I don't know. But MLB.com does have the top 5 all in the AL (still incl Rutschman) and the only top NL prospect they give a 2022 ETA to is CJ Abrams, a SS for the Padres.

It's pretty stark, NL just 4 of the top 15. #16 Brennen Davis of the Cubs is out with back surgery so he'll be plunging down the rankings. Alek Thomas is still listed at #17 overall.
   69. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 07:02 PM (#6082738)
It's a teeny sample of course but in his last 10 games, Rutschman has hit 324/378/559 with just 3 K in 37 PA. He had 15 K in his first 57 PA. Time for some breaking stuff.
   70. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6082739)
What does that say about the Mets history?

That they should have given HoJo more time at SS?
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:23 PM (#6082753)
Cardinals up 5-2 after losing a close game last night.
   72. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6082755)
Make that 7-2 after Edman singles with the bases loaded. As it stands right now, it's hard to not think of Edman as a legit MVP candidate, it's not just the under rated parts of his game that is part of it. Still, he's doing the Mookie Betts thing and just good at every aspect that is measurable.
   73. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6082756)
9-2 after a Goldy single... Game is looking like a lot more fun than last nights.
   74. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6082757)
C'mon now, I gave you folks a couple hours there to post something ... oh well ...

Not sure I get the odds on bb-ref. Cardinals have an 89% odds to make the post season, the Brewers who are 1 game back, and widely considered the better team coming into this season have 29% chance.

B-R's playoff projections are based on simulations that are apparently based on the SRS stat. SRS, if memory serves, incorporates strength of schedule, run differential ... and maybe that's it. Anyway, SRS puts the Brewers as a slightly below average team. Given that, the 36-30 record is some combo of an easy schedule to date or "luck" -- either way, the simulation has them playing 500 ball from here. It projects the Cards to a 7.5 win edge, going 55-41 the rest of the way. What really kills them is that they are the #9 team by SRS with the Cards actually being the #7 team. So the Brewers are nearly as likely to pass the Cards as pass the lower WC contenders and, as we might expect, the simulation doesn't see them as being very likely to pass the Cards given it projects them 7 games worse from here.

So poking into whether SRS is actually any good is what you want. Injuries (Brewers returning from, Cardinals going to), call-ups and trades are things that no projection system incorporates so it shouldn't be any worse than other systems in that regard. But it is intentionally a "simple" system that I think relies on current stats not projections. Fangraphs might poject the Brewers to start playing better.

The b-r odds table does say the Brewers have lost 10 percentage points in a week and a whopping 64% in the last 30 days. The Padres and Red Sox chances have jumped by 50% in the last 30 days. So it's fair to say that early-season SRS is a wee bit variable. I'd be curious if the simulation incorporates the uncertainty around SRS itself. I don't know if SRS on any date is there anywhere, but pythag is and even a month ago the Cards had a 613 pythag, 40 points better than the Brewers, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards were already ahead in SRS and playoff odds despite being 2.5 games behind.
   75. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6082758)
If his own teammate wasn't hitting 344 with a 202 OPS+, 16 HR and 56 RBI, Edman might have a shot.
   76. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 09:57 PM (#6082759)
I've argued in other venues about the Cardinals rank on power rankings, based a large part on their pyth and srs and even sos, but that to me was a different story. I just do not see the Brewers not making the playoffs with their crappy division. It's very likely that 3 of the 5 worst records in the NL might come from the central, and that ultimately means that the Cardinals and Brewers are going to be eating wins. There is no way that both the Braves and Phillies are going to be able to make up that difference or Padres and Giants. At least not in a convincing fashion that bb-ref numbers indicate. The Brewers at 29% behind the Phillies (or any third place team) is a bit of a misstep with the system.
   77. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:01 PM (#6082760)
If his own teammate wasn't hitting 344 with a 202 OPS+, 16 HR and 56 RBI, Edman might have a shot.


Yea, right now Goldy is having a good year, but Machado is my pick right now. And I'm fine with that, he was probably second runner up for player of the month in April (and probably should have won it over Arenado) and in May he was also top five.
   78. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6082761)
Goldy with a 2 for 5 day lowers his ops from 1.057 to 1.052
   79. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:24 PM (#6082765)
watching this game on whatever network I am, and these announcers are just freaking boring. Is this a real broadcast team, or just two random guys they grabbed from the street?
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6082766)
Apparently this is a fox sports broadcast. I know one of these guys was a 2000+ player, still boring and uninteresting as ####.
   81. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6082767)
ump trying to speed the game up... even the announcers know it was a bad call on strike three to Edman.
   82. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 10:51 PM (#6082769)
The announcer is "nobody predicted the Cardinals would be in first place at this time." and I'm thinking umm, yes some people did, the difference between the Brewers and Cardinals wasn't really that massive. The surprising story of the season is absolutely the Mess and Padres. And even the Yankees. The turnaround from the Red Sox after their start is also a story. Cardinals are basically the same winning percentage they had last year. (.556 last year, .561 this year)
   83. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 18, 2022 at 11:29 PM (#6082772)
Mike Trout is 4-14 so far in the series against Seattle. All four hits are homers.
   84. cardsfanboy Posted: June 18, 2022 at 11:38 PM (#6082773)
Mike Trout is 4-14 so far in the series against Seattle. All four hits are homers.


You know, I haven't bothered to look at Trout's numbers this year... let me rectify that. 58 games played out of his teams 66, so mostly healthy this season. 3.6 war which has to put him in the top 5 or 10 in baseball (knowing that Edman leads with 3.9 and Alcantara is tied there, but without bothering to look at the rest of the list) 1.031 ops, just a tad below Goldy while playing a more premier position. (looking at the team page, and who the #### is Taylor Ward) 192 ops+ typical Trout, once again a guy who will and deserves mvp votes.
   85. Walt Davis Posted: June 19, 2022 at 01:35 AM (#6082775)
#76 ... The Brewers have already played 24 against Cubs, Pirates, Reds and are 17-7 against them ... which puts them 3 under against everybody else. You can add 12 games against O's, Nats, Marlins (7-5). Now they still have 33 against C/R/P so still plenty of wins to pick up but also the Dodgers, Giants, Yanks, Rays, Jays and Red Sox.

The Cards have had 21 against the 3 bad teams (15-6); their last 33 games include 19 against those. Still, a pretty similar schedule as the Brewers. At its simplest, it's little other than that the Cards are on 40 pythag wins and the Brewers on 35 coming up on the 40% mark. Their run differential is just 13, -28 against the non-crap.

Now they could go 23-10 against the crap, putting them on 60 wins through 100 games. That would require 24-38 against the rest from here to finish on 84 wins and that does seem very harsh. Fangraphs does disagree, putting Brewers on 88 and Cards on 87, Brewers with roughly a 2/3 chance at the playoffs. And that's projecting the Bad 3 to play 450 or better from here (that seems very optimistic).
   86. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 01:51 AM (#6082776)
My comment is more that bb-ref thinks that it's massively more likely that the 1 Dodgers (duh) 2. Mess(duh again) will make the post season, but that the Braves, Phillies, Giants and Padres have twice the percentage of the Brewers of making it.



The conceit is that no team from the central other than the divisional champion will make the post season. They are basically assuming that the east and west will produce the two wild cards, which just goes counter to intuition. It can happen of course, but considering that the central is a weak division, it makes some sense to assume that the two strong teams are going to win an unfair proportion of the games that they have within their division.

The Brewers are still clearly in the hunt for the division, add in that even without the division they are probably going to end up with around 90 wins... the thought process that the Braves and Phillies or the Padres and Giants will all end up with better records is a bit of a stretch. The odds of all four of them being better is just ridiculous.
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 08:46 AM (#6082781)
Brewers win, Cardinals win, the odds of the Brewers making the post season on bb-ref has moved from 29% to 33%. (Cardinals moved from 88 to 91%)

I think both numbers are wrong, I'm a Cardinal fan and thought it was obvious the Cardinals were going to win the division, but I have red covered spectacles. The reality is the Brewers are a strong team, and a one game difference isn't even a difference, as it stands the Cardinals have been better this season (not just by record but by pyth etc) but the Brewers just haven't really played to their potential, while the Cardinals arguably have. (sure down seasons for O'Neil, Carlson etc are happening, but at the same time up seasons from Edman, Goldy and Arenado are also happening)
   88. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 19, 2022 at 10:12 AM (#6082782)
2. Mess

cfb, how long have you been using that term for the Mets? The reason I ask is because during the Whiteyball era I knew a red hot Cardinals fan who hated three teams with a passion: "The Sleaze" (the Yankees), "the Scum" (the Mets), and "the Slime" (the Dodgers), but in polite company he would refer to the Mets as "the Mess".
   89. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 19, 2022 at 10:18 AM (#6082783)
538 gives the Brewers a 65% chance of making the playoffs and the Cardinals also a 65% chance. In germs of winning the division, it’s a 50-49 edge to the Brewers so basically a coin flip. If I bet on sporting outcomes (I don’t), I would put far more weight on the 538 projections.
   90. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6082784)
cfb, how long have you been using that term for the Mets? The reason I ask is because during the Whiteyball era I knew a red hot Cardinals fan who hated three teams with a passion: "The Sleaze" (the Yankees), "the Scum" (the Mets), and "the Slime" (the Dodgers), but in polite company he would refer to the Mets as "the Mess".


For as long as bbtf has been around, maybe even the Neyer board.

The Scum for the Mets was an old joke from the mid 80's. A local radio station used to call them pond scum, and David Letterman did a bit(someone sent him a letter with ps, the Mets are pond scum) in which he argued the Mets weren't pond scum by comparing pond scum to the Mets. (Pond scum can't throw out Vince Coleman, neither can the Mets, Pond scum can't beat the Cardinals, neither can the Mets, The mets have a player named mookie, everyone is named mookie with pond scum or something to that affect... I have the video saved somewhere)

But I'm lazy so Mess vs Mets works for me, no matter how well they do in certain years, it feels like they are just a season away from messing it up.

I don't really hate any team, just like them to different degrees. (I mean if you ask around here, I supposedly hate the Red Sox more than any other team, but in actuality, they are my third favorite AL team behind the A's and Royals(or fourth behind the Rays)... I just generally don't like AL teams)
   91. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6082785)
538 gives the Brewers a 65% chance of making the playoffs and the Cardinals also a 65% chance. In germs of winning the division, it’s a 50-49 edge to the Brewers so basically a coin flip. If I bet on sporting outcomes (I don’t), I would put far more weight on the 538 projections.


That seems much more likely. I just found it weird that being one game out in the division, in which they were predicted to win by pretty much everybody, would flip the odds so much that they are listed as low chances. Add in that third place teams like the Phils and Padres/Giants were given much higher odds and it just seemed a bit wrong.
   92. JJ1986 Posted: June 19, 2022 at 10:56 AM (#6082787)
If I bet on sporting outcomes (I don’t), I would put far more weight on the 538 projections.
538 gives the Boston Celtics an 80% chance of winning the NL Central.
   93. The Duke Posted: June 19, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6082788)
Betts: I wonder how good he is when he's not playing with a broken rib
   94. The Duke Posted: June 19, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6082795)
I read the MLB article on Koufax statue. The statue is awesome - whoever did that got it perfectly. Being from STL, the statues of our guys never look that good.

And Koufax himself is the definition of California cool. He looks great
   95. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 19, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6082798)
The Scum for the Mets was an old joke from the mid 80's. A local radio station used to call them pond scum, and David Letterman did a bit(someone sent him a letter with ps, the Mets are pond scum) in which he argued the Mets weren't pond scum by comparing pond scum to the Mets. (Pond scum can't throw out Vince Coleman, neither can the Mets, Pond scum can't beat the Cardinals, neither can the Mets, The mets have a player named mookie, everyone is named mookie with pond scum or something to that affect... I have the video saved somewhere)

So I guess my Cardinals fan friend wasn't as original as I thought. And I wonder what that radio station had to say in 1986.

------------------

And Koufax himself is the definition of California cool. He looks great.

Maybe that's because California cool is just Brooklyn cool transplanted.
   96. Howie Menckel Posted: June 19, 2022 at 12:48 PM (#6082801)
1 Dodgers (duh) 2. Mess(duh again)

amusing conceit, when the Mets have won a pennant more recently than the poster's beloved squad (and of course now have Daddy Warbucks as an owner)

:)
   97. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 01:07 PM (#6082802)
amusing conceit, when the Mets have won a pennant more recently than the poster's beloved squad


Ehh, post season is the post season, that year the Cardinals won 10 more games than the Mess, and outside of 2016 when they won 87 vs the Cardinals 86, it's been a while since the Mess had a better season record than the Cardinals. (and nobody forget that 83 win Cardinal team over the 97 win Mess team of 2006) :)
   98. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 19, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6082805)
Apologies if this has been mentioned already:

Yasmani Grandal is always good for crazy stats. So far, in 201 PAs, he has scored 6 runs. S-I-X!
   99. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 19, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6082812)
Is Nick Plummer really more worthy of a roster spot than Dom Smith?
   100. cardsfanboy Posted: June 19, 2022 at 02:33 PM (#6082815)
Cardinal announcers are not being respectful at all about the quality of defense that the Red Sox have (focusing on Devers, but also the team as a whole)(funny is that Devers is having a good defensive season for him)
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