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Friday, June 17, 2022
Weekend OMNICHATTER for June 17-19, 2022
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courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).
Hombre Brotani
Posted: June 17, 2022 at 01:53 PM | 119 comment(s)
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I care because I cut him from my fantasy squad this week after being frustrated by the constant parade of baserunners against him (1.50 WHIP) and his seeming inability to provide anything other than a mediocre performance.
In his 12 previous starts he'd allowed more than 3 earned runs only once (5), but only twice did he pitch more than five innings while allowing fewer than 3 earned runs.
Just a string of 3-to-6-inning starts allowing 2-4 runs, and boatloads of baserunners.
When all is said and done, another typical Ranger Suarez performance: 5.2 ip, 9 baserunners, 3er. He exits in line for a win, with the Phils up 5-3.
I'm over a month into being blacked out from all New York-based team games, as my IP address is showing me 150 miles southwest of my actual location, and MLB says to contact my internet provider, my internet provider says to contact my router manufacturer, my router manufacturer says it's got nothing to do with them.
A few folks said that MLB Extra Innings will "override" your blackouts if you explain your situation, but my multiple attempts---including asking them directly to do so---have been fruitless.
Reminds me, hadn't checked if it will work through my phone. Whaddya know, phone works fine.
Morton has led his league in HBP four times previously, which seems like a lot. I guess that happens when you have a ridiculous curveball.
Miggy 294/332/371, 106 OPS+ (3 HR in 208 PA)
Pujols 210/315/361, 96
Votto 206/342/375, 92
Cruz 261/337/401, 114
Yadi 213/225/294, 49
K Suzuki 257/315/389, 72
Lowrie 207/278/304, 72
Y Gurriel 218/269/385, 82
Cano don't ask
Verlander 8-2, 194 ERA+
Hill 2-4, 95
Greinke 0-4, 80
Waino 5-4, 137
Morton 4-3, 77 (improving some today)
So the hitters have caught up to the pitchers some but none of them having a Verlander/Wainwright type season yet. Miggy, Pujols, Votto, Cruz have combined for 19 HR in 776 PA although Cruz's power may have finally arrived this year.
After 5/1's game, Votto went on the IL and he was slashing .122/.278/.135 with 0 HRs (22 games). He came back on 5/20 and since then is hitting .279/.398/.581 with all 5 of this year's HRs (25 games). I recall him having some pretty notable slow starts, but this is quite the turnaround after getting healthy.
Back in his prime Molina used to walk between 6% (about average) and 9% (above average) of the time, but it dropped under 6% in 2017, to 3.9% in 2020, and now it's an absurd 1.5%.
In his last four starts, Greinke has given up 21 runs in 18 innings.
Can the pen hold it?
Then the reliever walks the leadoff batter.
Haven't the Braves been watching guys like Mikolas and Tyler Anderson zooming way over 100 pitches when they're still pitching well?
Cue the Hollywood script - Lindor hits a 3-run HR, and he is GIDDY
EDIT: Followed by back-to-back doubles by Gleyber Torres & Joey Gallo. 6-1.
EDIT II: Rizzo Grand Slam makes it 10-1.
Mets have 1st and 2nd, nobody out, ball hit to the CF wall. ump mistakenly thinks it's a catch, so runners have to go backwards.
after realizing the ball was a hit, the imbeciles in NY decide that McNeil only moves from 2nd to 3rd base on a 400-foot "single." I mean, Ernie Lombardi would have scored on this play. the only interesting part would have been if the Mets scored two runs, not just one. but with McNeil clogged on third, the runner on first only moves up one base - and the batter can't be put anywhere but on first.
OTOH if the Orioles can survive their starters, 6 of their 7 top relievers in terms of innings pitched are sporting ERA+ numbers of 467, 231, 231, 292, 153 and 146. Too bad they're out of most of their games before the bullpen can even come into play.
This is a guy with an ERA over 7.00, 1.70 WHIP, and 5.6K/9. It's as if he wants to keep giving him chances to justify the decision to sign him to a $2.5M deal in the offseason.
Both lefties and righties have an OPS over .900 against him. The first batter he sees in a game is hitting .450/.500/.650.
With RISP, his OPS against is *1.418*
And this is the guy Marmol brings into a close game in the 7th with men on base. With Cabrera, Helsely, Gallegos, and four other guys better than McFarland available.
Final line: 3 batters faced, 3 hits, 2 runs allowed, and 1 inherited runner allowed to score.
He called a 3-0 foot too high ball a strike to Harper. It sure looked like a pitch around. But then he hung a curve that Harper ripped for a double to tie the game so I guess it worked out.
of course, those are 2020-2022 stats combined, and they paid him to do that every year.
so $90M for 155 reasonable games - not a bargain.
he'll return next spring, with any luck - and he just turned age 32!
plus he's only guaranteed another $153 million in the next 4 years.
what could go wrong?
mixed blessing of playing NL-only Rotisserie baseball - Vierling is owned in our league, so we all know who he is. and we know that he hit well late last year - .324 in 71 AB.
but when they name the AL All-Stars next month, there will be a couple of names where I'm like, "Hmm, is he a hitter or a pitcher?" because most/all of us don't follow The Junior Circuit.
it is a weird tradeoff.
What I love about Gallo is the way he saves his hits for when they really matter, usually when the Yankees are about 5 or more runs ahead.
Hitting in the 5th inning, SEA (ROOTS Sports) announcers are waxing poetic about his career, about 324 career HR in 1800 games, many seasons of 30 HR, many others with 20+, All-Star games, silver sluggers, being a first round pick...no, wait a 1-1: first overall pick in the 2005 draft, out of high school in Virginia.
Just then, he gets hit in the head by a pitch. A changeup that got away from Michael Lorenzen. Straight to the temple of his batting helmet.
The Mariners broadcast doesn't say much but gasp for a few minutes.
Upton is down for a long time.
He is eventually helped up, and walks off the field straight down into the clubhouse.
look at Jerry Jones and the Cowboys.
no reputable company outside of sports (I like to think) would tolerate decades of failure and incompetence. heads, obviously, must roll.
but they never will - not Moreno, not Dolan, not Jones, not Snyder, etc.
I do feel for the fans of those franchises, as they strike me as hostages.
The Mets lucked into getting out from awful owners to - while he's not my pick for Man of The Year in any category - at least has the financial capital that matches the size of his market AND it does not yet appear that he is trying to run the damn team himself like these other guys.
In-broadcast speed gun said 91 mph; USA Today says 90.6. That's an average cutter from him, or a low-end fastball.
That's a relief, he left last night's game after being hit in the head by a pitch.
Fields. He's the perfect utility guy but he's lacking in defensive chops and isn't particularly fast. He's a lesser version of Edman but with one huge advantage - he's left handed. I haven't seen him play one position well yet. Bad first baseman, bad right fielder, passable at 2nd and SS. I wonder if they should try him at catcher.
Considering that in the Central it's really just a two team race, it seems a bit weird to penalize the Brewers that much... and considering that the central is probably the weakest division in the league, it's very likely that as the season goes on, the Brewers and Cards are going to exploit their records against the lesser divisional teams that they have to face.
I always laugh at teams doing this - if the costs weren't spread over 30 teams and they had to bear the costs themselves, teams would never do this.
Don't get me wrong, it's a great thing to do but it isn't a great thing the Brewers are doing - they only bear 1/30 the cost of the decision.
He's +1 rfield overall. I don't think that he has hurt the team at any position he's played, just been average to decent. No mistakes, but obviously not Goldy or Arenado or Sosa or Edman at the positions he plays. But also not Lonnie Smith.
My thing is that he wasn't even on the top 30 prospect list, he was drafted in 2018 and covid might have slowed down his recognition as a major league player, but there is nothing in his game that indicates he isn't a 2-3 regular war player. (he's playing at a rate of a 6 war player, but that happens over a short sample size) The Cardinals brought him up because he played well but there was nothing on his resume indicating he was going to play like an all star, so they had no worry about his playing time. At the same time he's gotta be on the short list now for roy consideration. He reminds me of Matt Carpenter, with a better glove. (less power also)
Oh yeah, that's just position players. Down to the pitcher table ... Cinci has a SP named Graham Ashcraft at 1.6 WAR; Cards have Andre Pallante at 1.4 WAR and lots of relievers.
I've "discovered" Spencer Strider of the Braves. He's a 23-yo pitcher who either was being used as the "not starter" that comes in after the opener or the generic mid-game innings eater then was moved into the rotation -- 20 IP in 4 starts which is a "legit" starter these days. Anyway he had 11 relief appearances, 24 IP, just 6 ER with 37 K (!), 14 H, 11 BB, 0 HR. In 4 starts it's 19.2 IP, 31 K, 8 R (6 ER), 11 H, 10 BB, 2 HR. It all adds up to 44 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.3 WAR and 13 K/9. That will start getting noticed soon enough.
The last team I remember doing this (or I thought they were, not so sure in retrospect) was the Astros of the Oswalt era. Scott Elarton had been up a couple years before, mostly in relief for his first two years. He wasn't too good in the rotation though, maybe they should have left him in the pen. Oswalt was pretty clearly being handled this way, but it was just 8 relief appearances in his first month then into the rotation for 20 starts. I thought maybe Tim Redding too but he doesn't fit the pattern at all.
If he ends up being Matt Carpenter part two nobody is going to complain.
Not exactly ... I mean 1+ WAR in 1/3 of a season is plenty good. What is true is that there aren't any good NL rookies who have been in the lineup for the entire season so far. So Donavan's 1.8 WAR is in 159 PA so a 7/650 pace (don't imagine he's expected to keep it up). Thomas has 1.3 in just 136 PA, so a 6+ pace. The only guy near the top in NL rookie WAR who's been playing the whole way if Geraldo Perdomo who is the DBacks SS. Even he hasn't hit 200 PA yet and he's a bit above-average WAR wise.
So it raises the question of "who were the big-name NL rookies when the season started?" No names jump out at me but maybe Joey Bart and he was a disaster, now in the minors. Whether that's a terrible sign for the NL's future or just means their big prospects are still a year away I don't know. But MLB.com does have the top 5 all in the AL (still incl Rutschman) and the only top NL prospect they give a 2022 ETA to is CJ Abrams, a SS for the Padres.
It's pretty stark, NL just 4 of the top 15. #16 Brennen Davis of the Cubs is out with back surgery so he'll be plunging down the rankings. Alek Thomas is still listed at #17 overall.
That they should have given HoJo more time at SS?
Not sure I get the odds on bb-ref. Cardinals have an 89% odds to make the post season, the Brewers who are 1 game back, and widely considered the better team coming into this season have 29% chance.
B-R's playoff projections are based on simulations that are apparently based on the SRS stat. SRS, if memory serves, incorporates strength of schedule, run differential ... and maybe that's it. Anyway, SRS puts the Brewers as a slightly below average team. Given that, the 36-30 record is some combo of an easy schedule to date or "luck" -- either way, the simulation has them playing 500 ball from here. It projects the Cards to a 7.5 win edge, going 55-41 the rest of the way. What really kills them is that they are the #9 team by SRS with the Cards actually being the #7 team. So the Brewers are nearly as likely to pass the Cards as pass the lower WC contenders and, as we might expect, the simulation doesn't see them as being very likely to pass the Cards given it projects them 7 games worse from here.
So poking into whether SRS is actually any good is what you want. Injuries (Brewers returning from, Cardinals going to), call-ups and trades are things that no projection system incorporates so it shouldn't be any worse than other systems in that regard. But it is intentionally a "simple" system that I think relies on current stats not projections. Fangraphs might poject the Brewers to start playing better.
The b-r odds table does say the Brewers have lost 10 percentage points in a week and a whopping 64% in the last 30 days. The Padres and Red Sox chances have jumped by 50% in the last 30 days. So it's fair to say that early-season SRS is a wee bit variable. I'd be curious if the simulation incorporates the uncertainty around SRS itself. I don't know if SRS on any date is there anywhere, but pythag is and even a month ago the Cards had a 613 pythag, 40 points better than the Brewers, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards were already ahead in SRS and playoff odds despite being 2.5 games behind.
Yea, right now Goldy is having a good year, but Machado is my pick right now. And I'm fine with that, he was probably second runner up for player of the month in April (and probably should have won it over Arenado) and in May he was also top five.
You know, I haven't bothered to look at Trout's numbers this year... let me rectify that. 58 games played out of his teams 66, so mostly healthy this season. 3.6 war which has to put him in the top 5 or 10 in baseball (knowing that Edman leads with 3.9 and Alcantara is tied there, but without bothering to look at the rest of the list) 1.031 ops, just a tad below Goldy while playing a more premier position. (looking at the team page, and who the #### is Taylor Ward) 192 ops+ typical Trout, once again a guy who will and deserves mvp votes.
The Cards have had 21 against the 3 bad teams (15-6); their last 33 games include 19 against those. Still, a pretty similar schedule as the Brewers. At its simplest, it's little other than that the Cards are on 40 pythag wins and the Brewers on 35 coming up on the 40% mark. Their run differential is just 13, -28 against the non-crap.
Now they could go 23-10 against the crap, putting them on 60 wins through 100 games. That would require 24-38 against the rest from here to finish on 84 wins and that does seem very harsh. Fangraphs does disagree, putting Brewers on 88 and Cards on 87, Brewers with roughly a 2/3 chance at the playoffs. And that's projecting the Bad 3 to play 450 or better from here (that seems very optimistic).
The conceit is that no team from the central other than the divisional champion will make the post season. They are basically assuming that the east and west will produce the two wild cards, which just goes counter to intuition. It can happen of course, but considering that the central is a weak division, it makes some sense to assume that the two strong teams are going to win an unfair proportion of the games that they have within their division.
The Brewers are still clearly in the hunt for the division, add in that even without the division they are probably going to end up with around 90 wins... the thought process that the Braves and Phillies or the Padres and Giants will all end up with better records is a bit of a stretch. The odds of all four of them being better is just ridiculous.
I think both numbers are wrong, I'm a Cardinal fan and thought it was obvious the Cardinals were going to win the division, but I have red covered spectacles. The reality is the Brewers are a strong team, and a one game difference isn't even a difference, as it stands the Cardinals have been better this season (not just by record but by pyth etc) but the Brewers just haven't really played to their potential, while the Cardinals arguably have. (sure down seasons for O'Neil, Carlson etc are happening, but at the same time up seasons from Edman, Goldy and Arenado are also happening)
cfb, how long have you been using that term for the Mets? The reason I ask is because during the Whiteyball era I knew a red hot Cardinals fan who hated three teams with a passion: "The Sleaze" (the Yankees), "the Scum" (the Mets), and "the Slime" (the Dodgers), but in polite company he would refer to the Mets as "the Mess".
For as long as bbtf has been around, maybe even the Neyer board.
The Scum for the Mets was an old joke from the mid 80's. A local radio station used to call them pond scum, and David Letterman did a bit(someone sent him a letter with ps, the Mets are pond scum) in which he argued the Mets weren't pond scum by comparing pond scum to the Mets. (Pond scum can't throw out Vince Coleman, neither can the Mets, Pond scum can't beat the Cardinals, neither can the Mets, The mets have a player named mookie, everyone is named mookie with pond scum or something to that affect... I have the video saved somewhere)
But I'm lazy so Mess vs Mets works for me, no matter how well they do in certain years, it feels like they are just a season away from messing it up.
I don't really hate any team, just like them to different degrees. (I mean if you ask around here, I supposedly hate the Red Sox more than any other team, but in actuality, they are my third favorite AL team behind the A's and Royals(or fourth behind the Rays)... I just generally don't like AL teams)
That seems much more likely. I just found it weird that being one game out in the division, in which they were predicted to win by pretty much everybody, would flip the odds so much that they are listed as low chances. Add in that third place teams like the Phils and Padres/Giants were given much higher odds and it just seemed a bit wrong.
And Koufax himself is the definition of California cool. He looks great
So I guess my Cardinals fan friend wasn't as original as I thought. And I wonder what that radio station had to say in 1986.
------------------
And Koufax himself is the definition of California cool. He looks great.
Maybe that's because California cool is just Brooklyn cool transplanted.
amusing conceit, when the Mets have won a pennant more recently than the poster's beloved squad (and of course now have Daddy Warbucks as an owner)
:)
Ehh, post season is the post season, that year the Cardinals won 10 more games than the Mess, and outside of 2016 when they won 87 vs the Cardinals 86, it's been a while since the Mess had a better season record than the Cardinals. (and nobody forget that 83 win Cardinal team over the 97 win Mess team of 2006) :)
Yasmani Grandal is always good for crazy stats. So far, in 201 PAs, he has scored 6 runs. S-I-X!
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