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Friday, September 10, 2021

WEEKEND OMNICHATTER for September 10-12, 2021

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: September 10, 2021 at 03:49 PM | 118 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. The Duke Posted: September 10, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6039069)
Giants can put the Dodgers away this weekend. They managed to survive Hendricks today - just need a run to win.
   2. salvomania Posted: September 10, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6039071)
That Longoria two-run homer oughta do it...
   3. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 10, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6039072)
Longoria's first homer since coming back from the IL gives the Giants the lead.

Those Wrigleyville uniforms are atrocious.
   4. salvomania Posted: September 10, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6039074)
According to my math, among primary 3b (post-1900), Longoria is 12th in career OPS+ at 121.

He's 13th in HR, but just one behind Rolen/Cey and five behind Glaus/Castilla to get into 9th place.

He's 13th in bWAR, and 13th in WAA, but just 1.5 WAA from 9th place.

So is a top 12 player at a position a Hall of Famer? Is Evan Longoria a HoFer? Granted, several guys in his "ballpark"---Buddy Bell, Sal Bando, Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer---aren't in, so maybe he needs a couple more good years...
   5. Walt Davis Posted: September 10, 2021 at 05:50 PM (#6039082)
So is a top 12 player at a position a Hall of Famer?

Generally probably not, partly for the reason you suggest -- 12th is usually very close to 10th, very close to 15th so, from an "objective/value/whatever" standpoint, it's take all or take none. Another thing to consider is the size of the gaps. If there is, say, a sizable gap between #9 and #10, that's not in #10's favor.

But sure Longoria is close. He has been for a while. His peak wasn't amazing but he had 48 WAR through age 30 which gives you the look of a borderline HoFer and, even with decline, he was a good bet for around 65-70 WAR. But the bat fell off badly and he's been pretty blah since then ... until this year when the bat has rebounded but he's missed a lot of time. To be on a good HoF track, he should probably have about 5 more WAR right now than he's got. It was always gonna be a bit of a tough sell -- no MVP, no milestones, a lot of value in defense but not a lot of GG (3), just 3 AS games.

Just noticed ... Longoria's 20s are not a bad match for Beltre's 30s.

EL 22-30: 5474 PA, 177 Rbat, 80 Rfield, 48 WAR, 128 OPS+
AB 31-39: 5253 PA, 196 Rbat, 74 Rfield, 49 WAR, 130 OPS+
   6. The Duke Posted: September 10, 2021 at 05:50 PM (#6039083)
Did anyone watch Longoria at any point and say, there goes a Hall of Famer ? I don’t know - I just don’t ever remember thinking that.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 10, 2021 at 05:53 PM (#6039086)
Longoria has 57.5 WAR, Graig Nettles 67.9, & Ken Boyer 62.8, which suggests that Longoria, and/or the veteran’s committee, has some work to do.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 05:55 PM (#6039087)
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
The #Phillies have had a lead in 106 of their 140 games this season. By comparison, San Francisco – with a 19-game lead over Philadelphia for the best record in baseball – has led in 109 of their 140 games on the year.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 10, 2021 at 06:32 PM (#6039092)
I wonder if 3B is the position with the biggest gap between pre-war and post-war. Maybe C? Anyway, it's a lesson in why "average HoFer" isn't necessarily a useful way to think about things.

Per JAWS positional assignments, the average HoF 3B has 68.6 WAR, 43.1 WAR7 and therefore 55.9 JAWS. However the 6 pre-war guys elected are all below that average -- other than HR Baker, way below. Kell and Traynor didn't even crack 40 WAR. Post-war, the worst "3B" is Edgar with 68.4 WAR, 43.7 WAR7 and 56.0 JAWS. The worst guy is an average guy. Molitor is the only post-war HoF "3B" with a below-average WAR7 (which is mainly due to missing time in his 20s). The average post-war 3B has about 84 WAR -- a bit higher if you sensibly drop Edgar and Molitor. Night and day pre- and post-war (or even post-expansion). (I'm assuming Beltre and Rolen will make it.)

Maybe that post-war average will drop with future VC selections -- but they've had a fair bit of time to pick over Nettles, Boyer, Bell and Bando and I'm not sure any of them have even made the final cut for a vote. Nettles in particular could use a Blyleven-Simmons makeover. His main "flaws" are that he wasn't as amazing in the field as Brooks and he couldn't hit like Schmidt or Brett ... much like Blyleven wasn't Carlton or Seaver and Simmons wasn't Bench, Fisk or Carter. Of course we could say the same of Bell. Another risk with rank-based reasoning in HoF debates -- sometimes the 4th best X of your generation is HoF-worthy, sometimes best X of your generation is not.

Anyway, Longoria probably needs to get to at least 65 WAR to get serious consideration when his time comes. Covid and injuries hurt but he's had just 6.4 WAR the last 4 years and he'll be 36 next year. Contrary to their earlier history, lots of 3B have hung on into their late 30s so he might well have 4-5 fullish seasons left in him but even if he does, he might just barely scrap up the 8 WAR he needs for 65 career. That would make him look pretty much exactly like Bell/Nettles. He really needs a mini-Beltre surge to 70 WAR to have a good shot at the HoF.
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:07 PM (#6039101)
NL LEAST STANDINGS thru Thurs

ATL 74-65 ---

PHI 71-69 3.5
NY.. 70-71 5

ignoring LA/SF, the other NL WILD CARD goes to one of, thru Thurs:

SDP 74-65 ---

CIN 74-67 1
STL 71-68 3
PHI 71-69 3.5
NY.. 70-71 5


AL WILD CARD thru Thurs (TWO slots)

BOS 80-62 +1
NYY. 78-62 --

TOR 77-62 0.5
SEA 76-64 2
OAK 76-64 2

HUNGER GAMES: Mets vs Yankees, 9-11 weekend.
   11. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6039104)

Maybe C? Anyway, it's a lesson in why "average HoFer" isn't necessarily a useful way to think about things.


Im sure you've done a lot more research on this issue than me, but I've read the comments several times and I dont see anywhere where someone is arguing about the "average HoFer". So maybe if you could elaborate on what the connection is to that and someone ranked quite highly among WAR.

Another risk with rank-based reasoning in HoF debates -- sometimes the 4th best X of your generation is HoF-worthy, sometimes best X of your generation is not.


But He's not asking that at all. He's asking about someone ranked 12th all time (per one standard, albeit a well respected one) and isnt that a strong HoF argument? ANd what player post WW II is the best of his generation at a position and doesnt have a strong case? Im trying to think of an example. Al Rosen or ???

What if we re-set the question as this:

Should one expect the Hall of Fame to be filled equally by position? Why or why not?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:21 PM (#6039109)
A lot of JAWS in this post. For those that don't know, JAWS is the average of career WAR and WAR7. That means a small JAWs gap (say 3) is actually a pretty big gap equating to 6 WAR or (less likely) 6 WAR7 or some combo like that. Unless you're a freak like Beltre, by the time we're talking about your HoF chances, you're not likely to add to your WAR7 so any movement up the JAWS rankings means adding WAR ... and every 2 WAR added is just 1 JAWS added.

Note Longoria is all the way down at 18 by JAWS. His WAR7 isn't likely to improve and isn't that impressive for a HoF candidate (42, worse than almost everybody ahead of him in JAWS and below even the average including the pre-war guys). To catch Nettles for 12th, he needs 11 WAR.

#12s at other positions (using JAWS definition)

C -- Munson, probably passed by Posey. He's at the front of the group we discussed not long ago. Molina and Campy will be the only lower-ranked post-war guys who make it.

1B -- Palmeiro, soon passed by Votto. Votto has a huge edge in WAR7 over Palmeiro. Lots of pre- and post-war 1B below this are in (or would be sans roids).

2B -- Utley, a smidgen ahead of Whitaker. Biggio and Alomar just behind, lots of pre-war 2B behind.

SS -- Larkin, a very teensy smidgen ahead of Jeter, Reese just after. Aparicio and lots of pre-war SS below.

LF -- Fred Clarke, just behind Billy Williams, but comfortably ahead of Stargell. Kiner, Rice, Brock and pre-war guys well below. Roughly the top 17 are in.

CF -- Ashburn, just ahead of Dawson and Hamilton. Doby, Puckett and pre-war below this.

RF -- Sam Craford with Gwynn, Ichiro, Evans, Reggie Smith, Sosa, Winfield, Abreu, Vlad, Sheffield all well behind.

Post-war borderline for RF is around 50 JAWS which is usually a combo of just under 60 WAR and just over 40 WAR7. Smith and Evans have sub-par WAR7s which is one indicator of not being thought of as a HoFer. So does Winfield but he made it to 3000 hits and nearly 500 HR. If we applied that criteria to 3B then Longoria would already be borderline and Bell, Bando, Boyer and Nettles would all be in. Nettles and Gwynn both have 55.2 JAWS.

In CF, borderline is probably well above 50 JAWS -- Edmonds, Wynn and Willie Davis are all around 50, Dawson is at 54 but Andruw and Lofton are both just ahead and even Beltran at 57 probably isn't a slam dunk (Snider at 58 took 10 years). CF is very hard.

LF might be the easiest. Stargell had 48 JAWs with Rice and Brock behind him. Minoso (and Bonds, Rose, Manny) is the only LF on the outside with a good case.

SS is one where there's a clear gap. Cronin is #17 with 54 JAWS, then Glasscock at 51, then Sewell all the way down at 46. There is no muddle between HoF and HoVG SS, Aparicio or not.

2B is a mess as we know with Grich (#8), Whitaker (#13), Randolph (#16) and maybe Utley (#12) on the outside but like SS there's a pretty clear 3 JAWS gap between Gordon (#17) and Herman (#18) with Pedroia, Kinsler, Kent all just behind Herman -- post-war threshold is pretty clearly Gordon or higher.

1B is also a mess with guys like Perez, Cepeda, Ortiz, Hernandez, Helton, W Clark, Olerud making it difficult to identify a clear threshold. Still 50 JAWS will nearly always get you in.

C at the moment is extremely clear -- 42.6 JAWS (Simmons), definitely not 41.5 (Munson). :-) Posey will probably break 42 (needs 4 more WAR) but Yadi won't come close (he's at 35). But there are 10 guys between Yadi and Simmons so clearly Yadi isn't the threshold.

   13. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:45 PM (#6039111)
can't anybody here play this game?

Mets have 1st and 2nd, 2 out and Baez hits a routine single to left field.

Villar reaches the third-base bag just as Gallo scoops up the ball and begins his throw.

the defending Gold Glove OF tosses a rocket to the plate, and Villar is out by 15 to 20 feet.

wait, he's 15 to 20 feet away when Sanchez catches the ball.

Sanchez then inexplicably goes into full "toreador mode," causing Villar - who was about to stop and let Sanchez tag him in the chest - to say what the hell, I'll slide, then. Sanchez tags him on the helmet.

the home plate ump, not to be outdone by the stupidity of the third base coach (or Villar) and Sanchez, calls him out.

after a review that took several minutes too long, Villar is safe.

it's getting where you have your Little Leaguer watch MLB not to learn how to play the game properly, but as a cautionary tale for what bad things happen when you don't grasp fundamentals.

excuse me, I think I hear a couple of kids I need to get off my lawn....
   14. Walt Davis Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:59 PM (#6039113)
#11 ... this is how conversations progress. Topic A proceeds to Topic B proceeds to Topic C.

But He's not asking that at all. He's asking about someone ranked 12th all time (per one standard, albeit a well respected one) and isnt that a strong HoF argument?

You don't see how a comment that focusing on rank is sometimes misleading relates to an argument based on ranking? My comment is a comment on how RANKINGS CAN ALWAYS BE MISLEADING. It doesn't matter if that's a ranking over the last 20 years or the last 75 years or the last 150 years.

And his numbers appear to be off. By WAR and WAA he is 15th (Schmidt, Mathews, Beltre, Boggs, Brett, Jones, Brooks, Santo, Rolen, Nettles, Bell, Baker, Boyer, Bando). He's 14th in WAR7. (Excluding Molitor, Edgar, Evans and Allen which I assume Salvo did as well). He's about equal in WAA to Nettles and Bell (and others) but is about 2500 PA behind those guys. If Longoria hangs on, which he pretty much needs to do to have a shot, he will be lucky if his WAA doesn't drop.

Then need I go on that those are not just his "all-time" ranks but that those are essentially his post-war (he goes up one spot in WAR when Baker is out) and post expansion (Mathews) ranks as well. When a position has changed as much over time as 3B has there's really no point comparing over all time.

So you do understand that a question such as "should the 12th best of all-time be in the HoF" raises several questions: how do we decide best? does it make sense to compare over all time? how does Longoria compare to other 3B of his era? how does he compare with other 3B of his generation (not actually addressed)? should we apply the same standards across all eras? how does he compare in terms of peak? how does he compare in terms of career?

Because the answer to "is 12th best good enough?" is "it depends." A rather useless answer if you don't provide some discussion of what it depends on. For Longoria, wherever he's ranked, I vote "certainly not yet and probably never."

   15. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 10, 2021 at 08:20 PM (#6039115)
Tonight's starting pitcher Ohtani with homer #44 in the top of the first off Valdez, who hadn't surrendered a homer to a lefty since 2019.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6039119)
Let's point out that a guy who is still currently playing ranking on a rate stat is a horrible way to evaluate a player for the hof. I would more focus on his career stats than rate stats in any discussion of an active player, and to be honest rate stats are usually garbage anyway when talking about the hof outside of the inner circle. Darrell Evans ops+ was 121 after 9892 pa, why should his career be diminished in a ranking system against a guy who only has 121 over 7596 pa?
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 08:47 PM (#6039120)
Should one expect the Hall of Fame to be filled equally by position? Why or why not?


Absolutely not. For one, there are almost always going to be position chameleons, people like Stan Musial or Pete Rose that float all around the diamond based upon the team needs. Second you will have the two position players, guys who's skills evolved into old player skills who move from position to another position, but aren't really a lock for a position, (Ernie Banks, Arod etc.) Then you have your positions that just don't have a high rate of longevity, such as catcher. Or you have your interchangeable positions such as corner outfielders or corner and first base.

There is literally no reason to think that every position over an extended time, will have an equal number of representatives worthy of the hof.

We rank players based upon positions simply because it's a way to rank players and it's nice and convenient. Stan Musial is one of the 15 best players to ever play the game, and if we ranked him as a first baseman, which nobody ever does, which is literally the position he's played the most games at in his mlb career, he would be first all time and it wouldn't even be close. But because he played a bunch of other positions, the assumption is corner outfielder and he gets beat by either Ruth or Bonds or Aaron or whatever... the point is that positions aren't fixed. A player isn't locked into it, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer are going to be classified as catchers, but they aren't "just catchers".
   18. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2021 at 08:49 PM (#6039121)
Sanchez then inexplicably goes into full "toreador mode," causing Villar - who was about to stop and let Sanchez tag him in the chest - to say what the hell, I'll slide, then. Sanchez tags him on the helmet.


In all the recent discussion of catcher defense, this was something that gets overlooked that I think is really important: a catcher's ability to make a tag. It seems like some catchers are really bad at it. And while it doesn't happen that often, every time it does, it's a critical play, the difference between a run and an out. Biffing three or four of them in a season is a fairly big deal.

Of course, it would be virtually impossible to gauge on a historic basis.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6039123)
Let me put it this way, if some how I was able to erase my entire memory of the hof and never knew it was a thing, and if I was told to imagine such a thing over the course of baseball history based upon what I know, and asked to create a list of the 250 greatest players of all time, and then to break it down into whether or not positions would be equally represented, even after knowing what I know about Stan Musial, Arod, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, Biggio and others... I would without a second thought say that my 250 greatest players will feel like it's leaving out third baseman, second baseman and catchers, and probably an abundance of centerfielders, corner fielders and first baseman with shortstops representing the "average"... and obviously starting pitchers will more than triple any position out there. And I would be fine with that, as I think there is very likely a good chance that those positions have a higher than average rate of injury, drop off of performance etc.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:15 PM (#6039124)
In all the recent discussion of catcher defense, this was something that gets overlooked that I think is really important: a catcher's ability to make a tag. It seems like some catchers are really bad at it. And while it doesn't happen that often, every time it does, it's a critical play, the difference between a run and an out. Biffing three or four of them in a season is a fairly big deal.

Of course, it would be virtually impossible to gauge on a historic basis.


It might be important, but I doubt it's statistically significant to the point that it's ever going to be a measurable skill, there are just not enough plays at the plate for it to matter in any given season.
   21. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6039125)
Lester has given up two hits, homeruns to Votto and Suarez....
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6039126)
Yadier with his second hit of the night, a homerun to tie the game. My VPN is on it's second week of not working properly so I cannot watch the game for some ####### reason.
   23. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:33 PM (#6039127)
Sanchez seems like the anti-Piazza - he is terrible in every measurable way you can be as a catcher, except he has a rocket throwing arm. last night he threw out a guy at second base while still on his knees after a pitch in the dirt.
   24. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:33 PM (#6039128)
CFB, check your BTF-associated email.
   25. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6039129)
Do I have one?


Nevermind, I figured it out, thanks.
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6039131)

Sanchez seems like the anti-Piazza - he is terrible in every measurable way you can be as a catcher, except he has a rocket throwing arm. last night he threw out a guy at second base while still on his knees after a pitch in the dirt.


I like that description. The thing is that I am in the camp that think Piazza is wrongfully maligned for his defense simply because of his arm being poor. As a fan of Ted Simmons, who was also often called a poor catcher, because many people thought that the arm was the only thing that matter, it always made me aware of other catchers strengths and defects beyond the obvious arm strength.

Piazza who I thought was "Simmons over empathized" was always a guy I was going to like, he had a brain, did the job of handling a pitching staff etc... just didn't have one tool.
   27. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6039132)
The Astros are treating Ohtani like they treat every pitcher. Ooof.
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6039133)
Just saw this on Twitter: Ohtani just became the first American League pitcher to be intentionally walked since Minnesota's Jim Kaat on Sept. 1, 1970.
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:00 PM (#6039135)
Minnesota's Jim Kaat on Sept. 1, 1970.


I was 1 month and 3 days old when that happened. (I know most of us can figure out the math, but that means I'm 51 years old now)
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:10 PM (#6039136)
Lester has been surprisingly good, a couple of first bad starts, but after that he's been solid if not actually good. Last five starts not counting tonights 2 runs and 7 inning performance was 8 runs allowed over 26 innings for a 2.70 era... 2 runs tonight over 7 innings is not going to hurt that number at all.
   31. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:16 PM (#6039137)
I know he's not elite or anything but Lucas Sims could do no wrong that inning. Absolute command on his pitches. That was a Maddux level clinic on how to pitch.
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#6039138)
Good... Shildt isn't giving up, he's bringing in Garcia.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6039139)
I'm in the same camp as Edmonds, he's watching Garcia and cannot understand how a guy with this amount of movement, control could have been this bad of a pitcher over his career.
   34. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6039140)
Rockies just went up 11-0 on the Phillies in the ninth. Does anyone want the second NL wild card?
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6039142)
hilarious, Garcia has thrown three pitches in the strike zone called balls, against Votto he throws one pretty obviously out of the strike zone and it's called a strike.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:28 PM (#6039143)
Rockies just went up 11-0 on the Phillies in the ninth. Does anyone want the second NL wild card?


I don't think so... I think the Blue Jays want it, but they are in the wrong league.
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:35 PM (#6039144)
Is Stephenson a bad defensive catcher? He just looks bad at "pitch framing"... what is his reputation?
   38. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:43 PM (#6039145)
Another fantastic defensive play by Yadier.
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:46 PM (#6039147)
poor execution by the Cardinals, but ultimately I don't think it actually matters one bit.... the real thing was allowing the batter to reach third.

Man on first one out, double to the wall, runner scores, wild ass throw allows the hitter to reach third, there was a small hope that perfect play results in a runner out at the plate, the real situation was that that wasn't likely. Poor throw, batter reaches third.
   40. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#6039148)
NL LEAST STANDINGS thru Fri

ATL 75-65 --- (W)

PHI 71-70 4.5 (L)
NY.. 71-71 5 (W)

Braves closing in now...
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:53 PM (#6039149)
Cardinals gave up two runs that inning on plays that were logic plays, and more or less made the proper plays while not getting the desired results... I think the double, play should have been played more cautiously, but the scoring situation did kind of require the high effort play.

Ultimately it resulted in the worse situation possible. 2 runs.
   42. The Honorable Ardo Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6039150)
Two more hits for Miguel Cabrera tonight in Detroit's 10-4 win over the Rays. 27 hits and 20 games to go.
   43. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:56 PM (#6039151)
I still hate the way Stephenson catches the pitch. He has got to be among the worst in baseball an pitch framing right now.
   44. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:57 PM (#6039152)
Two more hits for Miguel Cabrera tonight in Detroit's 10-4 win over the Rays. 27 hits and 20 games to go.


It's not likely, but it's not impossible for him to get 3000 this year.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6039153)
I always (as anyone would) hate games which we could have won and we don't.
   46. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6039155)
Sanchez then inexplicably goes into full "toreador mode," causing Villar - who was about to stop and let Sanchez tag him in the chest - to say what the hell, I'll slide, then. Sanchez tags him on the helmet.

the home plate ump, not to be outdone by the stupidity of the third base coach (or Villar) and Sanchez, calls him out.


Someone on Twitter said tonight’s game was like watching the Mets playing the Mets, which I thought was a great description.

But I have a question about your description above, Howie. Is tagging a guy on the helmet not an out? I turned on the game late and only saw the play during the highlights. It looked like he might have gotten Villar on the helmet so I was surprised they overturned the call on the field.
   47. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2021 at 11:08 PM (#6039156)
tagging a guy on the helmet CAN be an out, sure. and he did indeed tag him on the helmet.

but, well, a runner's feet are about, oh, 6 feet closer to the plate - so they have a funny way of getting there before the tag lands on the helmet. which is what happened here.

:)
   48. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 11:17 PM (#6039157)
Got it, thanks.
   49. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2021 at 11:26 PM (#6039158)
Someone on Twitter said tonight’s game was like watching the Mets playing the Mets, which I thought was a great description.


To be fair, the Mets offense doesn't consist of waiting around for the Outfield of Giants to hit a solo homer.
   50. Howie Menckel Posted: September 11, 2021 at 12:10 AM (#6039162)
Stanton, who has something like 22 HR in 55 games at CitiField, got a well-earned night off tonight.

meanwhile, if SEA and OAK hold these leads, there will be FIVE AL wild card contenders with 63 or 64 losses. two move on, three go home....
   51. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 12:55 AM (#6039164)
Dodgers holding on tenaciously but they’ll never catch the giants if the giants never lose.

Padres don’t seem to be able to hit anymore
   52. Howie Menckel Posted: September 11, 2021 at 01:01 AM (#6039165)
wow

AL WILD CARD thru Fri (TWO slots)

BOS 80-63 +1 (L)
NYY. 78-63 -- (L)

TOR 77-63 0.5 (L)
SEA 77-64 1 (W)
OAK 77-64 1 (W)

................

the second NL WILD CARD goes to one of, thru Fri:

SDP 74-66 --- (L)

CIN 75-67 --- (W)
STL 71-69 3 (L)
PHI 71-70 3.5 (L)
NY.. 71-71 4 (W)

   53. Jay Z Posted: September 11, 2021 at 02:21 AM (#6039166)
Indians catcher Ryan Lavarnway committed both a catcher's balk and catcher's interference in the Indians' 10-3 loss to the Brewers last night. Both were run scoring plays. Lavarnway also recorded an unassisted putout on a tapper just in front of the plate.

Lavarnway has played 163 games in ten seasons since 2011 with eight different teams.
   54. dejarouehg Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:13 AM (#6039171)
Indians catcher Ryan Lavarnway committed both a catcher's balk and catcher's interference in the Indians' 10-3 loss to the Brewers last night. Both were run scoring plays. Lavarnway also recorded an unassisted putout on a tapper just in front of the plate.


I'm assuming Tim Kirkjian lost his mind over this Trifecta. If only ESPN still cared about baseball, I'd be able to find him talking about this. (I'm currently reading a book of his, which is great but I don't remember the title of (something about Sacrifice Flies,) and this would be considered a Quirkjian.)
   55. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 03:22 PM (#6039222)
Giants on an epic run. They never lose. The Dodgers probably Can’t overcome them now. It’s amazing. Three fabulous teams in NL: LAD, SFG, MIL. Any of them will be worthy WS competitors
   56. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6039233)


Then you have your positions that just don't have a high rate of longevity, such as catcher.


That's has to be wrong argument unless Ive miscommunicated. THe hypothesis is that we rank them position by position.

Molina or Munson at Catcher are being ranked vs other Catchers. So it makes no difference their longevity.

COrrect? Or am I missing something?
   57. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6039239)
Absolutely not. For one, there are almost always going to be position chameleons, people like Stan Musial or Pete Rose that float all around the diamond based upon the team needs.


Yeah that's an interesting argument. I was thinking we could prorate them somehow but not sure that's possible if we start out, ab initio, by placing players in pigeon holes labeled: SS, RF etc.
   58. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#6039246)
Yes, we should expect there to be the same amount of players by position over a long period. Ebbs and flows being what they are, some positions have bubbles but over time it should more or less even out. Position chameleons are just examples used to muddy the broader discussion. There aren’t enough of them to really affect the larger proposition. The reasons why there are not equal positions really boils down to offense. Catchers don’t put up enough offense compared to other positions so they lag. The standards (3000 hits, 500 HRs, for example ) don’t really describe what you wound expect from a HOF SS. 3rd basemen also are key defensive positions and are under represented.

Ranking by position is a good way to find where the writers have not Done a good job. Simmons is a great example and Munson and Freehan should follow

There are a number of great players missing at 3B including Boyer, nettles, Bando, Allen (he’s a chameleon) and perhaps Darrell Evans. Rolen and beltre will go in eventually.
   59. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6039250)
NOTE ON CATCHER def. runs saved.

We were having this discussion in the Molina thread last week and since I can't find that I'll mention it here. We were arguing about adding more value to C. I did some calculations that were both repetitive and erroneous. In any event, BRef seems to be saying that they only value they are using for C def value is CS/SB. See here under "FIelding RUns" :

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml

This applies to their values given both before and after 2003 (when they changed from TZ to DRS system for their def values). THere is a slight tweak to the 2003 values (and following years) where they factor in the pitcher's value in SB prevention.

So there's lots of room there for adding more value to catchers (aside from the framing boogeyman). YOu've got PB/WP; fielding bunts and fielding pop ups. So lots more to chew there should we revisit.

NOTE ON VALUE OF PITCHING.

CFB mentioned this in another thread and I'll be damned if I can find it now. He was saying that pitchers get 35% or something. BRef is saying they assign 41% of the total WAR out there to pitchers. Same link above under "Replacement level." Since pitchers do bat, perhaps 2 or 3% of that is batting and so perhaps 38% of baseball is pitching; 12% fielding and 50% divided up between hitting and running, I guess.

   60. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 06:15 PM (#6039253)
Absolutely not. For one, there are almost always going to be position chameleons, people like Stan Musial or Pete Rose that float all around the diamond based upon the team needs.


Im gonna walk back my comment on this a little because I do think we could just pro rate guys like Musial or Rose and we should expect that there should be about the same amount of WAA at every non pitcher position.

So like at first base you'd have Pujols with 60 WAA and Gehrig with I dunno 40 WAA, and you have partial seasons for Stargell and Musial and they put up 15 WAA there. And in the end through all of history you have like 800 WAA at the 1st base position and all others. Except maybe LF would be 750.

So then you'd say that we have 15.5 LFers in the HoF and we have 14.7 1bmen cause we have 1/3 of Stargell player and 1/2 of Musial and 1/4 of Rose. You do it that way, and it should be pretty even no?

Assuming 1) that WAR is being assigned correctly and obviously we have arguments about C value and def value etc. 2) assuming manager's and GMs behave rationally they should seek to distribute talent as evenly as possible. Why would they not do that?

Also with understanding that at some pt. the talent will run out and some positions will under perform. For me, I see that as LF and DH. If LF is easier to play than RF, those guys should hit a little better, but they don't at least not every season. So it seems to me obviously the distribution of talent is not completely even. ANd same for DH.

Right? So everyone is getting the same chance to bat, and if they're not then they should be contributing more to defense. So a SS batting 8th should be contributing more on defense, otherwise something is wrong. Everyone is out there in the field the same time, and if someone gets less chances, then he should make up for it with his bat.

So perhaps LF might be under represented in my perfect HoF. BUt I dont see how 3b or Catcher would be. I dont see talent really running out there.

Second you will have the two position players, guys who's skills evolved into old player skills who move from position to another position, but aren't really a lock for a position, (Ernie Banks, Arod etc.


I think this is the same argument as your number 1; but if you want to explain then go ahead.
   61. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6039257)
Ebbs and flows being what they are, some positions have bubbles but over time it should more or less even out.


I agree with what you're saying there. The fact that there is a current logjam at 3b and I guess at 2b shouldn't invalidate the general proposition that talent should be equally distributed since all those positions have the ability to contribute equally.

So there's about 6 third baseman all have about the same WAR. In a perfect HoF maybe only 3 should go in, but its hard to choose 3 so here we are, with an unequal distribution of HoF honor. That's just a random occurance it doesnt mean or shouldn't mean that there are as many great 3bmen as great RFer. I think that proposition would be irrational.
   62. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 07:59 PM (#6039260)
Molina or Munson at Catcher are being ranked vs other Catchers. So it makes no difference their longevity.

COrrect? Or am I missing something?


I may not be arguing it correctly is probably the issue. To me hof is different than just ranking of players by position. There are a few things for hof arguments. One is how much of a separation between players at a position. The other is career and peak value.

If we rank players by positions and it's a legit argument that the difference between 10th and 20th is simply a matter of perspective for one position, while the difference between 10th and 15th is pretty obvious for another position, we have a clear line for that position. Add in if a position has career value that is less on average, then exceeding the career average could be construed on one side of the argument as being more worthy regardless of actual value or the argument could be made that the player isn't worthy of inclusion as the hall is about career value.

Both arguments are legit. It's just accepting different ways of looking at it.


Personally I absolutely will always argue for longevity, reliability and consistency beyond just war and waa.

   63. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 08:07 PM (#6039261)
CFB mentioned this in another thread and I'll be damned if I can find it now. He was saying that pitchers get 35% or something. BRef is saying they assign 41% of the total WAR out there to pitchers. Same link above under "Replacement level." Since pitchers do bat, perhaps 2 or 3% of that is batting and so perhaps 38% of baseball is pitching; 12% fielding and 50% divided up between hitting and running, I guess.


I'm fairly certain that offense is over 50% in most systems, Bill James in his historical abstract went with 45/55 if I remember correctly. (or maybe 47/53... something like that) and his argument was basically that it worked. In theory it could have to do with the fact that there isn't as many bottom half of the ninth inning or something else, but ultimately you cannot win a game 0-0, but you can win 1-0, meaning perfect defense on both sides of the equation doesn't figure into a win.

   64. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 08:18 PM (#6039262)
I agree with what you're saying there. The fact that there is a current logjam at 3b and I guess at 2b shouldn't invalidate the general proposition that talent should be equally distributed since all those positions have the ability to contribute equally.

So there's about 6 third baseman all have about the same WAR. In a perfect HoF maybe only 3 should go in, but its hard to choose 3 so here we are, with an unequal distribution of HoF honor. That's just a random occurance it doesnt mean or shouldn't mean that there are as many great 3bmen as great RFer. I think that proposition would be irrational.


The thing is that selective decisions for players negates some of that. We choose centerfielders based upon their speed, we put them in the batting order if they are good enough top of the lineup because their speed translates to those positions... Over the course of ANY season centerfielders will have more plate appearances per game than a catcher or third baseman, this is a given, so offensively a centerfielder value relative to average at his position is already more valuable than other positions, this doesn't even account for the quality of their defense, this means that an elite centerfielder has more of a chance to separate himself from the pack.

We also accept poor offense from a few positions (shortstop in the 70's notably, but catcher throughout history) This means when we get a Bench, Piazza, Simmons type of hitter at the position, it's easier for them to separate themselves from the other catchers who are batting 6th or later in the lineup. But if we don't have tools that accurately accesses their defensive value, we are then potentially overrating the separators, if their defense doesn't match up. Also this means that positions that are defense first on an annual basis, due to the lack of great defensive data, aren't going to allow for the separation as much as you would expect in a war system.
   65. JJ1986 Posted: September 11, 2021 at 08:21 PM (#6039263)
What the #### did MLB.com do to its homepage? It looks like they just accidentally loaded a basic Wordpress template.
   66. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:03 PM (#6039267)
not seeing a difference.
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6039269)
Yes... arenado with a 2 run homerun.
   68. cardsfanboy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 10:01 PM (#6039270)
Losing 4-0... Cardinals win 6-4... have to love that if you are a Cardinal fan.
   69. Howie Menckel Posted: September 11, 2021 at 11:11 PM (#6039273)
Baez is known to be gifted defensively, creative on the bases, and prone to the bonehead play.

in just 6 weeks with the Mets, he already has shown more of all three categories than I would have expected.

7-7, 1st and 2nd, 2 outs in the 8th, tough hop to Lindor at SS, handles it and they get the force at 2B. while even rookie ball INFs would know to eat the ball there, Baez tosses it 10 feet high to first base. no, Alonso is not quite the tall even with an upraised arm, and there is the potential winning run for the Yankees with the Mets' entire season on the brink.

I believe that Cubs fans were so dazzled by his upside that he could do no wrong in their eyes. but did management ever sit him down for a couple of hours in the offseason to watch some film?

his brilliant moves can be applauded - while he needed to get some sort of wisdom (not Patrick) on how to stop undoing the good he does with such nonsense.

(the ridiculous high K rate, albeit with lots of power, is a different issue.)
   70. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 11:37 PM (#6039274)
I wouldn’t have javy Baez on my team for free. I don’t like the wide variability of outcomes.
   71. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 11:40 PM (#6039276)
LA leaning hard on their best pitchers right now. Scherzer, urias and Buehler logging lots of pitches. But giants never lose so it might go for naught.

Surely, they have someone Better than Bellinger. He needs to go on IL and call it a season. He’s hurting them out there
   72. The Duke Posted: September 11, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#6039282)
Joe Kelly comes in and shuts down Padres in 8th. One run game. LAD needs to avoid machado and Tatis batting again
   73. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2021 at 12:21 AM (#6039288)
AL WILD CARD thru Sat (TWO slots)

BOS 81-63 +1 (W)
TOR 79-63 --- (W twice)
NYY.79--63 --- (W)

SEA 77-65 2 (L)
OAK 77-65 2 (L)

................

NL LEAST STANDINGS thru Sat

ATL 75-66 --- (L)

PHI 72-70 3.5 (W)
NY.. 71-72 5 (L)

the second NL WILD CARD goes to one of, thru Sat:

SDP 74-67 --- (L)

CIN 75-68 --- (L)
STL 72-69 2 (W)
PHI 72-70 2.5 (W)
NY.. 71-72 4 (L)
   74. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 12:32 AM (#6039290)
Dodgers win again - pick up no ground on Giants.

Padres still can’t hit -
   75. Walt Davis Posted: September 12, 2021 at 12:35 AM (#6039291)
Javy tries the impossible because he can do the impossible. Rather difficult to get a player to try only the impossible stuff he can do. And the defense is not highly variable. The offense is as variable as most high-K hitters seem to be -- feast or famine. And that's more of an in-season rather than cross-season issue. Over the last 5 years, he's averaged a 110 OPS+. That went 102, 129, 115, (59), 114 which, when we know that the 59 is really just 2 momths, is a common level of variation for a 110 OPS+ hitter. So sure, for two months his bat will be dragging you down and for 2 months he'll be carrying your team. Not a big deal.

For those not paying attention, Javy has been blisteringly hot for the Mets, hitting 291/348/563, a 148 OPS+, despite the horrible early stretch for them. He's credited with 0.9 WAA in a month of games, might be the best pickup of the deadline. Rizzo and Bryant have been their basic above-average selves, Schwarber is raking but his WAA is half of Javy's. Certainly any Mets fan complaining about Javy's performance to date is a moron (not saying you were Howie, I'll let you decide).

Javy may not age well -- a little slowing of the bat will probably kill his offense and an aging body shouldn't be trying the impossible but Javy will probably continue to -- but all signs indicate he'll remain about a 4-5 WAR player until that decline starts, he may just drop faster than most. That just means you don't offer him 8 years.
   76. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 12:37 AM (#6039292)
Mets/Padres have a terrible remaining schedule. Cards is bad. Reds is good and Phillies are great. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Phillies take last wild card. If the Mets were to pull this out they deserve it. It’s more likely they play about .333 ball the rest of the way.
   77. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2021 at 01:32 AM (#6039297)
No-hit games have become so common that today’s effort by the Brewers didn’t warrant an OmniChatter mention? Indians becoming the 1st MLB team to be no-hit 3 times in a season might be worth a snarky comment, too, if anyone was still here.
   78. The Honorable Ardo Posted: September 12, 2021 at 02:47 AM (#6039298)
Three fabulous teams in NL: LAD, SFG, MIL. Any of them will be worthy WS competitors
I'd argue all three are better than any team in the American League.
   79. TomH Posted: September 12, 2021 at 08:12 AM (#6039299)
on what Basis are the Brewers better than the Rays??

W-L record
runs scored / runs allowed
league quality adjustment
previous season record (2020, 2019)

0 for 4 and counting....
   80. stanmvp48 Posted: September 12, 2021 at 09:34 AM (#6039302)
5 teams within 2 games for both AL wild card spots. I wonder how they would break that
   81. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 12, 2021 at 09:48 AM (#6039303)

I'm fairly certain that offense is over 50% in most systems,


Im 100% certain that is incorrect. Thats impossible.
   82. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 12, 2021 at 10:06 AM (#6039304)
We choose centerfielders based upon their speed, we put them in the batting order if they are good enough top of the lineup because their speed translates to those positions... Over the course of ANY season centerfielders will have more plate appearances per game than a catcher or third baseman,


yeah thats a more interesting argument for sure.
   83. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6039310)
Baez has hit great for the Mets, and of course I did not claim otherwise. I did note that his defense and his creativity are even more than I expected.

but WAA is not going to capture debacles like his game-losing stupid throw to cost them the must-win Sunday night game, I don't think. and I see no reason to believe, at this point, that he'll ever stop making such stupid plays. it's part of his resume just like the good stuff (and the whiffs).

well, he just needs two teams (or one that thinks there are two) for him to get rich anyway. will be interesting to see how that plays out come the offseason.

and as for "best pickup of the deadline," that's going to depend on how the first-round CF pick the Mets surrendered pans out, I would think (as well as the seeming boxes of rocks dumped for the other acquisitions).
   84. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#6039317)
Juan Soto went into today’s game hitting .349/.522/.645 since the All-Star break, and promptly adds a 1st inning BB. He might win the MVP if the Nationals were a playoff team, but should still do well in the balloting, somewhere in the top 5 depending on how he and the other contenders finish.
   85. O Tempura, O Morays ('Spos) Posted: September 12, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6039321)
Bombs away in Baltimore.
   86. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: September 12, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6039332)
Jays up 22-5 in the 6th.
   87. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 03:35 PM (#6039333)
Sonny Gray mowing down cardinals today but down 2-0 on one bad pitch to Arenado. I doubt Happ and the bullpen can hold a two run lead and Gray is only at 60 pitches.
   88. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6039335)
Hampson from Rockies having a career day today. 2 run homer and a three run homer against the desperate Phillies to account for all of Rockies scoring
   89. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6039336)
Juan Soto 2-for-3 today (triple & double), with 2 BB, bringing his BA to .311, within range of NL leaders Trea Turner (.317) & Nick Castellanos (.315).
   90. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6039338)
Sonny gray dazzling that Redbirds through 7 but his teammates can’t score. Gray at 99 pitches but bats second in the 8th. Likely done for day. Good riddance.
   91. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6039339)
Cardinals clinging to lead through 7 1/2. Gray is finally out - an insurance run would be great
   92. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6039341)
Phillies give Rockies a free out in ninth with a sac bunt. Rockies win
   93. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 05:03 PM (#6039344)
Scherzer about to make history - 2999 Ks
   94. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6039345)
Snell leaves with what looks like groin injury in first - the death knell for San Diego
   95. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6039346)
Scherzer perfect through 4, immaculate inning and one shy of 3000.
   96. The Duke Posted: September 12, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6039347)
3000!!!!!!
   97. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 12, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6039350)
Scherzer perfect through 7....

Does he have one of these already? I can't remember.
   98. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6039351)
Scherzer perfect through 7....
I think we know who to blame.
   99. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 12, 2021 at 06:30 PM (#6039352)
shiiiiiit...I should have never posted!
   100. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 12, 2021 at 06:43 PM (#6039353)
Flip.
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