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Tuesday, July 09, 2019

What went wrong for Bryce Harper, other missing MLB All-Stars from 2018 | ESPN

As you roll into downtown Cleveland, there’s a pedestrian overpass across Ontario Street with a huge All-Star banner draped along the length of the bridge to promote the week’s festivities. It features the faces of several of baseball’s biggest stars.

One of those stars is Bryce Harper, the biggest name and most recognizable player in the sport.

The only problem, of course, is that Harper is not an All-Star. He’s not in Cleveland.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 09, 2019 at 07:47 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: all star game, life is disappointing, and so are these guys

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   1. bfan Posted: July 08, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5859958)
Harper has an .839 OPS at the all-star break; his lifetime OPS is .894. Isn't that basically within the range of a normal variance, season to season? He hasn't been great, but he has been pretty good.
   2. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: July 08, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5859968)
Unless Harper steps it up in the second half, he is slated to have his third season of the last 4 as a slightly above/below average player. Average players are useful, but unless they sign contracts for 1/3 of a $billion, they are not stars.
   3. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 08, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5859974)
Let's see:

The only other time he wasn't an All-Star was 2014. He was 21 and missed most of the first half the season with the famed hustle-induced thumb injury. Ended up with an OPS+ of 111.

2016 he ended up with an OPS+ of 114, but was much better in the first half and made the All-Star team.

Last year he had an OPS+ of 134 but bad defensive stats for the first time.

Currently he's at 117 and does not have bad defensive stats.
   4. bobm Posted: July 08, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5859995)

                                                                                                                            
Rk         Player    Split Year  G HR GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B RBI SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  TB IBB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2012 63  8 62 277 248 43 70 15  4  25 10  3 27  53 .282 .354 .472  .826 117   0  .330   103   127
2    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2013 58 13 57 242 201 38 53  9  2  29  6  3 36  44 .264 .371 .522  .893 105   2  .272   108   147
3    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2014 34  2 33 137 123 12 30  5  2  11  1  2 13  37 .244 .316 .366  .682  45   4  .333    78    94
4    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2015 81 26 81 343 277 59 94 21  1  61  4  4 63  70 .339 .464 .704 1.168 195   8  .374   109   226
5    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2016 86 19 83 368 289 50 74 11  0  52 13  6 70  58 .256 .399 .491  .891 142  16  .252   118   141
6    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2017 81 20 80 364 305 69 99 21  0  65  2  2 57  69 .325 .431 .590 1.021 180  11  .364   104   172
7    Bryce Harper 1st Half 2018 94 23 93 414 327 57 70 14  0  54  6  2 78 102 .214 .365 .468  .833 153  12  .226    87   130


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2019.
   5. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 08, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5860009)
Currently he's at 117 and does not have bad defensive stats.


Offset a little by some boneheadedly overagressive base running. The K rate has jumped too.
   6. Captain Supporter Posted: July 08, 2019 at 06:06 PM (#5860043)
Some of you folks seem to think that this is somehow worth $330 million over 13 years with the back end of the contract promising nothing but problems. Fine, but I'm very glad indeed that the Yankees showed no interest at all despite the howls from the 'star' struck section of their fan base. My crystal ball sees a future where Harper winds up being vociferously booed by the always very tolerant and understanding Philly faithful every time he steps up to the plate.
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 08, 2019 at 06:25 PM (#5860055)
He shouldn't have been an All-Star last year either, that's what went wrong.
   8. Sunday silence Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:33 AM (#5860245)
Fine, but I'm very glad indeed that the Yankees showed no interest at all despite the howls from the 'star' struck section of their fan base.


no the best part was when some writer wrote that the LAD absolutely had to sign Harper. Cause the LAD had/have more OF depth than anyone...
   9. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5860305)
Some of you folks seem to think that this is somehow worth $330 million over 13 years with the back end of the contract promising nothing but problems.

Not I. I have been the driver of the "Harper is just not all that good" bandwagon for quite a long time now.
   10. bunyon Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5860308)
I think a lot of people predicted he'd get a massive contract. I'm not familiar with anyone who said he'd be worth it.
   11. SoSH U at work Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5860311)
I think a lot of people predicted he'd get a massive contract. I'm not familiar with anyone who said he'd be worth it.


There was considerable support for a big deal. Snapper was the leader of the pay the man crowd, but he was hardly the only one.

   12. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5860314)
I think a lot of people predicted he'd get a massive contract. I'm not familiar with anyone who said he'd be worth it.
Over at FanGraphs they were constantly banging the drum of "Harper is a Generational Player who deserves $400 million and if he doesn't get it those evil owners have ruined baseball." It was way over the top.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 09, 2019 at 01:03 PM (#5860318)

There was considerable support for a big deal. Snapper was the leader of the pay the man crowd, but he was hardly the only one.


I really wanted Machado, but I'd be fine with Harper as long as he played 1B. I'd still take Harper's contract if I were the Yankees.

Even if he's a 3-4 win player going forward, it's not really much of an overpay. $25M AAV is just not that much anymoe, in a world where set-up guys with one good season get $7-8M p.a.
   14. Rally Posted: July 09, 2019 at 01:15 PM (#5860329)
25 million is fine for a 3-4 win player right now. If he’s just a 3-4 win player right now though, I don’t want to be on the hook for 25 million 5 years from now, let alone 13.
   15. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 09, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5860357)
25 million is fine for a 3-4 win player right now. If he’s just a 3-4 win player right now though, I don’t want to be on the hook for 25 million 5 years from now, let alone 13.

This. If you think Harper is a 3-4 win player, the deal only really makes sense* if you think that he's going to follow a normal aging curve from age 26 -- i.e. that he's going to improve for a few seasons before beginning his decline.

But if you think he's already on that decline, or even that he's just going to stay at this level for a few years before declining, then at best it's a mild overpay with a high level of risk.

* It's still probably an overpay in the current market, but in line with other free agent contracts from recent years at least.
   16. bunyon Posted: July 09, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5860360)
I stand corrected.
   17. TDF, trained monkey Posted: July 09, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5860374)
Even if he's a 3-4 win player going forward, it's not really much of an overpay.
Except his past 3+ seasons have been:

627 PA, 1.4 bWAR
492 PA, 4.6 bWAR
695 PA, 1.3 bWAR (I know, defense - but defense matters too)
395 PA, 1.4 bWAR so far

You can even expand that 2 more seasons - sure, it picks up the 10 WAR season but it also picks up another below average one.

Of his past 6 seasons (counting this one), 4 have been worth 0.2 WAA or less. That's not a "3-4 win player", that's a 2-3 win player.
   18. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: July 09, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5860387)
Fangraphs has him at 2.9, 4.8, and 3.5 WAR the previous 3 years (and 2.0 so far this year).

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