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Friday, March 12, 2021

What will the Mets pay to keep Francisco Lindor?

Here are what four rival agents believe his next contract will look like:

Agent 1: “If I’m Lindor and I see Tatis sign for $340 million, I’m not taking less than that on a 10-year deal. He’s probably shooting for Mookie Betts’ deal (12 years, $365 million) but more realistic is $350-ish million. Maybe 11 years if you count this year. But if I’m the Mets, I don’t go that high. I’ll go $320-330 million and make him decide.”

Agent 2: “Lots of variables to consider right now. Teams will want to point to the pandemic, uncertainty about fans in the stands and the potential work stoppage. But Mookie’s deal illustrates that when you acquire impact talent in their walk year, you intend on making a run at locking them up even in the face of all those issues.

“Mookie was/is a way better player. I’d imagine a 10-year, $300 million deal would be the bar his camp is going for. Get as much in the form of a signing bonus as possible to minimize the New York taxes and enjoy Florida’s no state income tax when he collects his money. The signing bonus also isn’t subject to a work stoppage or proration so he’ll ensure he keeps getting paid regardless.”

Agent 3: “It’s a tough one to peg. But I’d say $35-40 million (annually) for 7-12 years. If Tatis is getting $40 million in his free-agent years NOW, this far away, then Lindor is worth more.”

Agent 4: “Sky’s the limit with him. He’s going to want 10 years at least. He doesn’t need to take a discount. He’s about to be a free agent. $35 million a year is easy. Should be more.”


RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: francisco lindor, mets

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   1. Darren Posted: March 12, 2021 at 02:35 PM (#6008461)
Nothing between 10/$300 mil and 12/$400 mil would surprise me.
   2. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 12, 2021 at 03:40 PM (#6008466)
The Mets would be risking a self-immolation inferno if Lindor isn’t re-signed, so he has considerable leverage.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: March 12, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6008471)
Tatis of course is 5 years younger. On the other hand, the first 4 years of the contract cover pre-FA years then the Pads get 4 cheap FA years ($20-25 M) before he starts getting $36 M for the last 6 years. That puts him at about 10/$300 for his FA years and that sounds about right for Lindor. I'm not sure he'll like that AAV but the higher AAV option is probably something like 8/$270 which would be about the same; 10/$320-$330 is obviously possible.

I think 12/$400 is a stretch but I won'd rule it out. The main problem is that it would take him through 38 and I don't think anybody's gonna do that at that AAV. Rendon's 7/$245 that takes him through 36 is a reasonable comp here, putting 10/$350 into play for Lindor.
   4. puck Posted: March 13, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6008532)
How many of other FA shortstops are going to leave their teams? Story, Semien. How about Correa and Baez? I assume the Dodgers will re-sign Seager.

   5. Walt Davis Posted: March 13, 2021 at 06:58 PM (#6008537)
Semien already jumped to the Jays on a 1-year contract. A pretty strange thing to do if he had any choice in the matter -- barring a big season, he'll be low down the FA market next offseason. Anyway, unless you consider the Jays "his team" then he's already left. Still he got a solid $18 M while Andrelton only got $10.5 which makes no sense at all.

I'm confused why the Cubs didn't tie up Javy a couple of years ago. They're waiting awfully late if they intend to do it. Still at this point, after last year's offensive disaster, Javy needs to hit to establish any real value in the market. Otherwise he'll get at most a 3/$30-36 style contract just for his defense. My WAG at this point is that he will go FA, find nobody wants to give him big money, comes back to the Cubs where at least he's a fan favorite.

Correa too has been playing himself out of a big contract -- he's fragile and his OPS+ over the last 3 "seasons" (1000 PA) is only 110. I'll WAG the Astros want to see how this season goes -- if it's another 500-ish season, they'll shift towards rebuilding; if they play pretty well, they'll look to keep him. Seager has had some injury issues too but the bat has been pretty consistent so he might be #2 on the market behind Lindor (which I would not have guessed a couple of years ago). Still he strikes me as the guy most likely to move off of SS around age 30. The Dodgers do seem the right fit though. Story -- who knows? The Rox surely need some position player their fans have heard of but why would Story want to stick around this team. Then the question of what can be expected outside of Coors. I'm getting a bad vibe that the Rox are looking at the Marlins as a model so Story is gone, maybe at the deadline.
   6. puck Posted: March 14, 2021 at 03:13 AM (#6008554)
Yeah, Correa and Seager are interesting ones...tremendous early seasons, then injuries. If Correa has a big year, some team has a tough choice on their hands.

I don't think the Rockies are looking to be the Marlins. If they were going to rebuild they'd trade German Marquez and try to get some decent prospects. They seem to be sticking with the strategy of hoping everyone hits their 110% projection.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2021 at 03:23 AM (#6008555)
Barring some moves, the Rox will enter next year with just $20 M in guaranteed salaries ($11 of it Marquez) and a lot of cheap arb players. That sounds like the Marlins to me.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2021 at 08:24 PM (#6008589)
EDIT on #7: Actually probably $41 M in guaranteed salaries because, per b-r, Blackmon has a $21 M player option that serves as an excellent example of why the Rox aren't a good organization. (You never know, Blackmon could have one of his monster years but 4 WAR, -1 WAA for 2018-20 is not attractive to other teams.) But at least Desmond will be off the books.
   9. . Posted: March 15, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6008647)
Said it with Reyes, said it with Hamilton, said it with Cano, said it with Harper -- these contracts are almost never worth it. That said, other than Trout and Mookie, Lindor would probably be the one guy I'd pay. And even with that said, I wouldn't pay him beyond age 33 or 34. So that's basically 8 years/$250 million as my top offer. If he doesn't take it, I move on. Especially with the expanded playoffs,(*) there's just no need whatsoever to pay a guy big dollar into his 30s. You're not even getting cost certainty on arb years as you got with Acuna Jr., Tatis Jr., Albies, etc. Thanks, but no thanks.

(*) And roid testing, of course.
   10. Adam Starblind Posted: March 29, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6010635)
Daily News reporting that Lindor is not moving off of 12/385. Multiple outlets reporting that Mets offered 10/325. If 12/385 is serious, then bye.
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: March 29, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6010636)
The Mets would be risking a self-immolation inferno if Lindor isn’t re-signed, so he has considerable leverage.

you are misreading the room - WAIT: your comment was from 3 weeks ago so never mind.

but still - this ain't the Wilpons anymore.

if Lindor blows off 10 for 325 to play in the country's biggest market before a fan base that is desperate to fall in love with him - ahead of an all-time spectacular group of peers available after the season - without working out a similar deal, well, buh bye.

he has had ONE season above a 117 OPS+. he's a truly great all-around player, obviously, and everyone wants him both for tangible and intangible reasons. but if he repeats his 102 of last season (sample size issues; still) or goes lower, he may dislike the postseason offer even more.

the Wilpons, with a few notable exceptions, didn't even wade into this pool. Cohen dove in with a major deal and is making a big offer. Lindor strikes me as a savvy guy - and if he thinks he's going to outfox this wolf, he might get bitten.

final thought: I think the deal gets announced on Opening Day - or at the Mets home opener. Cohen has a little flair in him.

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