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Thursday, July 21, 2022

What Yankees, Mets refuse to do in Juan Soto trade sweepstakes

Early word is the Nationals may be willing to accept a prospect-heavy package, especially if an acquiring team is willing to take on a “bad” contract, for 23-year-old wunderkind Juan Soto. The seeming interest in prospects over current pennant-race contributors is leading folks to believe Soto has a decent chance to be dealt now.

That might mean a package ask from the Yankees starting with Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza and Jasson Dominguez. And from the Mets a package beginning with Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio.

There’s no confirmation on any exact request yet. But as to whether the Mets or Yankees would surrender their three top prospects plus more, the answer from folks on both teams was the same: No.

It’s no surprise the Nats may prefer to dump a bloated contract, possibly Patrick Corbin — who has two years left on his $140 million, six-year deal. The interest in prospects would open the field to include more contending teams, while the preference to include an overpriced veteran could eliminate some smaller-market teams — a team taking Soto plus Corbin would be adding $40M.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 21, 2022 at 08:13 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: juan soto, mets, yankees

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   1. JJ1986 Posted: July 21, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6087715)
Why the #### would the Nats want to trade Soto for "current pennant-race contributors"?
   2. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 21, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6087718)
. . . a team taking Soto plus Corbin would be adding $40M.
Quite a bit more than that. Soto is getting $17.1M this year, and figures to make ~ $55M in his 2 remaining arbitration years. Corbin has a significantly backloaded contract, $23,416,666 this year, $24,416,667 in 2023 & $35,416,667 in 2024. That’s ~ $115M for 2023-24, plus the remainder of this season’s salaries. Not cheap.
   3. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 21, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6087721)
Of course if St. Louis wins the Soto sweepstakes and end up with Corbin also, Soto will have a slightly down 2nd half, only posting an OPS+ of 152. Corbin on the other hand will go 7-2 with an ERA+ of 123, because somehow that's how the Cardinals roll.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: July 21, 2022 at 10:48 PM (#6087723)
The difference between if the Cardinals acquire Soto vs the Yankees and Mets, is that the Cardinals fully know they won't be able to sign him, it's more or less renting him for 2.5 years and then hearing the familiar refrain of the player leaving while saying he loved playing here. Heck Cardinals management has flat out claimed that they will be perennially the brides made not the bride because of the coast preference for players.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 21, 2022 at 11:54 PM (#6087726)
brides made not the bride because of the coast preference


I have to assume you meant bridesmaid and cost preference? I see it's late in the midwest, you must be either drunk or tired? If drunk and if you're old like the rest of us, will be tired very soon....
   6. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: July 22, 2022 at 01:08 AM (#6087728)
For the first time in years, a likely Yankee Bad Contract is not immediately apparent to me.

They're talking about a longterm obligation to a fading veteran - late Bernie and late A-Rod-like. I guess you can make a Stanton case, but I wouldn't. He generates significant positive value.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: July 22, 2022 at 01:21 AM (#6087729)
Why the #### would the Nats want to trade Soto for "current pennant-race contributors"?

It's at best awkwardly phrased but presumably they mean "young MLers" (and ML-ready prospects). Jeremy Pena is an Astros' "current pennant-race contributor" who is a 2022 debut, a SS with a 115 OPS+ and 3.1 WAR already this year. That would be an awesome piece to get back in a Soto deal, likely much better than Anthony Volpe. Houston's also got some guys like Cristian Javier, about to enter arb with a 122 career ERA+.

Even more obviously, if Seattle called, Rizzo would enquire about Julio Rodriguez. Michael Harris or Spencer Strider from the Braves or Nolan Gorman from the Cards would probably be asked for.

Now neither the Mets not Yankees seem to have a single player like that so it's a silly point to make when focusing on those two teams. The closest the Dodgers come is Gavin Lux with 4 more years per-FA and Will Smith with 3.

Of course in any and all cases, the impact of Soto's 2-3 WAR over the last two months is reduced if you're losing 1-1.5 WAR from your rookie SS. Teams rarely toss genuine current contributors into trades like this unless (a) they are being directly replaced by the new guy or (b) they are promising part-timers or otherwise redundant to current needs. The offseason, when young GMs' fancies turn to thoughts of missing pieces and their own genius, is the time to trade Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon.
   8. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 22, 2022 at 08:50 AM (#6087749)
I have to assume you meant bridesmaid and cost preference

He got bridesmaid wrong, but I think he meant "coast preference" (as in playing on the east (NY/BOS) or west coast (LA/SD), and not in the "fly over" states.
   9. salvomania Posted: July 22, 2022 at 09:59 AM (#6087761)
The packages I've seen bandied about of prospective trades from the Cardinals seem slightly insane: one had them sending their Nos. 1, 2, 4 and 6 prospects, plus Dylan Carlson, as well as taking on Corbin's contract.

As a fan, as much as I appreciate Soto, that's too much to give up.

That said, a Cardinal fan somewhere posted lists of the Cardinals "top prospects" from a few years ago, and you reaize that most of the time these No. 1-5 prospects don't all become solid contributing major leaguers, much less stars.

(The Cardinals' No. 1 is Jordan Walker, who "looks like" a bonafide star in the making, and one of those other prospects is Masyn Winn, who had that 100+ MPH throw from SS in the Futures game.)
   10. The Duke Posted: July 22, 2022 at 10:09 AM (#6087762)
The really interesting deal would be if Strausburg also got included with Corbin. They both have NTCs but why would you want to stay ?

If you do that, then prospect return becomes de minimums. The new team is taking on almost $100 million in salary.

Why would the Nats do this ? If you are selling the team in a year, you increase your profits by $100 million a year until you sell plus new Owners can have flexibility on how they want to approach the team.
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2022 at 10:19 AM (#6087763)
The really interesting deal would be if Strausburg also got included with Corbin. They both have NTCs but why would you want to stay ?
Strasburg has only played for this one organization. He's not pitching anyway, so he wouldn't get to enjoy any pennant race or anything. And by the time he can pitch again, the team could have new owners and be good. Why wouldn't he want to stay?
   12. greenback needs a ride, not ammo Posted: July 22, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6087769)
Why wouldn't he want to stay?

Lower state income taxes? Maybe?
   13. The Duke Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6087774)
Why wouldn't he want to follow soto to a contender?
   14. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:20 PM (#6087778)
Why wouldn't he want to follow soto to a contender?
Because he's not pitching.
   15. Ron J Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6087779)
#13 A lot of people really hate moving. And sometimes there are family situations.

Players really do like the option to control where they play.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6087785)
What team is willing to pay Corbin + Strasburg + Soto (I'm assuming signing him to a long-term deal is priority #1)???
   17. JJ1986 Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6087787)
Looking at the CB tax numbers on Cot's, the Orioles are the one team who could easily add $100 million to payroll.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: July 22, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6087788)
Yeah, but the franchises have beef. They have not traded since the move from Montreal.
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 22, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6087813)
What team is willing to pay Corbin + Strasburg + Soto . . .
BBTF is the only place I’ve seen suggesting Strasburg could be included in a Soto deal. Including Corbin saves the Nationals ~ $67M, while significantly reducing their prospect/player haul. Expecting more than that, especially considering Strasburg’s current injury situation, is unrealistic.
   20. The Duke Posted: July 22, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6087815)
It's a huge benefit to the lerners personally and to the new owners if salary is cleared. It could happen. You don't have to take Soto up to 40 aav for 2.5 years. Corbin is basically gone and Strausburg only has a couple years left . A lot of teams could this - it's expensive but preserves your prospects
   21. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 22, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6087824)
At the rate the Nats are going, they might as well have Calvin Griffith as their owner.

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