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Monday, December 26, 2022

What’s done and what remains for Orioles - Blog

I like the moves the Orioles have made. They aren’t big moves but they’re complementary and fit well in their timeline.

With smart management in place in Baltimore, I’d say the Red Sox have the fifth smartest management team in the AL East. That’s not a good situation if you are a Red Sox fan.

jimfurtado Posted: December 26, 2022 at 11:47 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: orioles

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 26, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6110933)
This team could really us a big bat at DH but I don't think there are ny left (there weren't many available). Which leaves us with a Trey Mancini type.
   2. DFA Posted: December 27, 2022 at 01:52 AM (#6110937)
The Orioles are loaded with young hitting talent. The big ticket item was and remains a top of the rotation starter. It is true that the likes of Verlander and Rodon had better options, but the Orioles really missed an opportunity. It's doubtful Verlander would have chosen the perennial second division Orioles over a top team, but the Orioles have not resolved any questions as yet IMO. Next year's free agent class is looking pretty good, actually, so we shall see (Giolito, Julio Urias, Flaherty, Kershaw, Nola, Snell, Darvish among others). The Orioles could still make a move for a starter, possibly Eovaldi or acquiring a starter via trade. Would it be surprising if the Orioles exceed expectations one year but regress to the mean the next? We like to remember bad teams who surprise one year and then keep it going, but that's just confirmation bias. Going into Spring Training, the Orioles are looking like 3rd place is the ceiling. Disappointing IMO.
   3. JRVJ Posted: December 27, 2022 at 12:22 PM (#6110944)
I can almost justify the Orioles not spending much in FA this year from a competitive standpoint (though I'm pretty sure it's driven from general miserliness).

What surprises me is that the Orioles are not trading players away like they were headed by Jerry Dipoto. Objectively, they have / will have a surfeit of talent at certain positions.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2022 at 12:39 PM (#6110946)
No they aren't. The have a lot of 105-110 OPS+ hitters. Adley and Gunnar are probably a bit better than that. O's fiished 10th in runs last year, the lineup is largely the same, the current DH is a combo of Urias, Vavra, McKenna, Stowers and Adley for 50 games or so. (Yes, the DH will be the guy those guys sub for but they are the bats.)

Or maybe you mean 1-3 years from now, the O's will have some more hitters developed. Great. The 2023 lineup could really use a big bat in the middle of the lineup not that any are left. I think Voit is still out there, he might be the best option at this point and not very expensive.
   5. sunday silence (again) Posted: December 27, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6110951)
Im struggling to see why any team looking to the future would want Voit. Hes on the downside of his career and his ceiling seems to be about 1WAR and its very questionable he could even play 1b. Possibly a late season guy to plug a hole but that's it. But Im just looking at numbers on my laptop. Am I missing something? thanks
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: December 27, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6110955)
If they had even a somewhat respectable payroll level last year, they probably make the playoffs and who knows how deep they go. They gave a lot of plate appearances to terrible hitters, and a lot of innings to terrible pitchers.
   7. DFA Posted: December 27, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6110960)
The Orioles have a top 5 farm system, and that doesn't count Rutschman. They do have a lot to young talent on the cusp. In AAA they have their CF of the future in Colton Cowser, and they have a bunch of interesting middle infielder types, including Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Connor Norby. Normalizing for age and level, those three performed last year. Westburg is probably ready out of the gate, with Norby and Ortiz likely ready by July. In AA, the team has Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad as top 100 types. In A ball you get last year's 1:1 in Jackson Holliday and another top college bat in Dylan Beavers. What the Orioles lack is top end pitching talent outside of Grayson Rodriguez. DL Hall is a Nuke Laloosh redux, so who knows with him? Regardless, the team should be trading arbitration eligible position players for arb eligible pitchers, and let the kids play. Of course, I'm sure Al Avila thought the same thing a year ago and that didn't turn out great.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2022 at 09:20 PM (#6110989)
Im struggling to see why any team looking to the future would want Voit

Voit isn't the future, he's a 124 career OPS+ bat for 400-500 PAs in 2023. He will make about $7-8 M tops. If you don't want him back for 2024, you non-tender him.

The O's DH is currently non-existent. That's OK, that's true for lots of teams.
The O's starting 1B is Ryan Mountcastle. He had 1.3 WAR in 600 PA last year and 0.9 WAR in 600 PA the year before.
The O's starting LF is Austin Hays, career OPS+ of 104 -- plenty of defense so leave him in LF when he plays
The O's starting RF is Anthony Santander, career OPS+ of 104 -- mediocre defense, he comes out average.
One young corner OF is Kyle Stowers with 98 career PA but a 113 wRC+ projection at fg
Another is Coton Cowser with 124 not very good AAA PA but somehow a 113 wRC+ projection at fg (previous minors numbers solid)
I assume most of the IF time is Frazier, Mateo and Gunnar, leaving Urias and his 109 OPS+ as the backup and possible DH

Of course fg only projects Voit to a 106 wRC+ so it is of course possible he's nearly done and no better a bat than the rest of these guys. So good thing you only want him as a stopgap. He'd be a better fit if he was LHB so he could steal some PAs from Mountcastle and if I could think of a LHB Voit currently available, I'd suggest him. Josh Bell would have been a better fit, Abreu would have been a better fit but I can see why they didn't got that high for Abreu. A healthy Conforto or Brantley obviously would be very nice. They sat on the sideline for those. If Nelson Cruz hadn't flatlined, he'd be perfect.

There's absolutely no reason the O's can't contend in 2023. Winnning fewer games in 2023 doesn't help the 2024-26 O's at all so stop spinning the wheels. To have a serious shot at it, an upgraded offense would help. They should be a bit better from having Gunnar there all year and Frazier almost has to out-hit Odor.** It wasn't a great offseason for cheap, short-term upgrades to offense but it's not like the O's don't have tons of payroll room for some short-term overspends.

**Adley was there for a big chunk, a full year from him likely only helps a small amount.

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