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Monday, July 29, 2019

What’s next after the Mets shook up the trade deadline?

Imagine being Marcus Stroman right now. He had to be 100 percent certain that he was headed to the Yankees or Astros as the missing piece for a World Series favorite.

Surprise, Marcus! Welcome to the New York Mets, a team that is decidedly not a World Series favorite, with a 50-55 record and odds of making the playoffs at 9.6%, according to FanGraphs. The Mets’ chances of winning the World Series? A microscopic 0.3%.

While the deal left most (including our Keith Law) scratching their heads, this trade, more than anything else, throws another kink into a completely unpredictable trade deadline that just got even more confusing—and keep in mind that the one and only deadline this year is July 31. There is no backdoor route to deals in August like the Justin Verlander-to-Houston blockbuster of 2017.

Well, we could always take mambo lessons….

 

QLE Posted: July 29, 2019 at 09:56 AM | 95 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marcus stroman, mets being mets, trade deadline

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   1. The Duke Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5865925)
Mets pulled off a heist. Everyone should want to do a deal like this except the blue jays
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:26 AM (#5865928)
Not sure what the Blue Jays were thinking. They were allegedly holding out for the Yankees best prospect (Deivi Garcia) but took the Mets #4 and #6 instead.
   3. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:27 AM (#5865929)
Those guys are both prospects, but why did the Blue Jays want to do this? Word on the street has, for weeks, been that Stroman was on his way to NYY for Deivi Garcia. And while Garcia isn't Mackenzie Gore exactly, I like him a lot better than these two. He's two years older than Woods-Richardson, but has had similar success at AA and is pitching reasonably well at AAA now (despite relatively high RA; SS warning for both his "pitching reasonably well" and "high RA", it's only 3 games at AAA).
   4. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5865931)
How does this work? snapper beat me to the Garcia line by one minute, but I said more about him (hence spent more time writing). Does snapper get half a coke? Maybe a fanta-brand cola?
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5865932)
How does this work? snapper beat me to the Garcia line by one minute, but I said more about him (hence spent more time writing). Does snapper get half a coke? Maybe a fanta-brand cola?

Full imaginary Coke, cheapskate.

More importantly, if Garcia reaches the majors, he will be only the 2nd Deivi in history to play in MLB, after the immortal Deivi Cruz.
   6. bfan Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:51 AM (#5865943)
I so admire the Mets GM for making things so interesting for all of us; he understands that this is all for our entertainment and discourse. I assume this isn't the Mets' last trade, this deadline.
   7. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5865950)
Possibilities;

-the Blue Jays were never asking f r Garcia, that was just a rumor started by one source or another withno basis in fact.

- the Jays like getting multiple prospects rather than one top prospect.

- the Jays like one of these prospects better than García
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5865952)
More importantly, if Garcia reaches the majors, he will be only the 2nd Deivi in history to play in MLB, after the immortal Deivi Cruz.
Paging Bote Man...
   9. Rally Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5865958)
Possibilities;


Another possibility is that the Yankees were not willing to trade Garcia.
   10. rconn23 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5865965)
"Another possibility is that the Yankees were not willing to trade Garcia."

I really like Garcia, his stuff is ridiculous, but I think I would have traded him for Stroman. I think Cashman is going to have to do the rare overpay, much like the Cubs did by giving up Gleyber to get Chapman. This team is good enough to win the WS and flags fly forever.
   11. Bote Man Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5865966)
Randy @pamsson
I don’t think that Mendoza-Arod conversation about Thor last night is getting enough attention. A Mets employee basically told the world a player is available and then talked about it on air with a Yankees employee. And then they talked about what it would cost.

Also, re No.8 the #FireDeivi bandwagon is fully charged and has plenny room for everyone!
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5865971)
I really like Garcia, his stuff is ridiculous, but I think I would have traded him for Stroman. I think Cashman is going to have to do the rare overpay, much like the Cubs did by giving up Gleyber to get Chapman. This team is good enough to win the WS and flags fly forever.

Hard pass. What does Stroman do, increase their WS odds by 0.3%? He's not even an elite SP.

This team is good enough to win the WS, and that means nothing. They've got ~ 1 in 6, per Fangraphs. It's not getting much better than that.

The way to get flags is to have the 1 in 6 odds every year, and not focus on any given crap shoot.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5865972)
Mets pulled off a heist. Everyone should want to do a deal like this except the blue jays

I don’t quite get this, if the Mets are going to trade Syndergaard & Wheeler, as has been reported. The idea of quickly flipping Stroman always seemed improbable, since a team willing to offer more - if it exists - could have dealt directly with Toronto. I suppose the Mets are ahead if they really like Stroman more than Syndergaard, but that doesn’t seem like an obvious choice.
   14. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:53 AM (#5865973)
This team is good enough to win the WS
Whoah...weren't you just posting "nothing is ever going to help this team and they are terrible" type stuff over the weekend?
   15. the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB). Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:55 AM (#5865976)
I really like Garcia, his stuff is ridiculous, but I think I would have traded him for Stroman. I think Cashman is going to have to do the rare overpay, much like the Cubs did by giving up Gleyber to get Chapman. This team is good enough to win the WS and flags fly forever.


I'm with Snapper on this one.
   16. The Duke Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5865981)
13. Who says they sell Syndergaard ? Maybe trading for Cano and Diaz and Stroman is attempting to win.

This is a pretty good team let down by their bullpen and we all know bullpens have high volatility. I’m betting they are trying to make a run. The brew crew, d-backs, cardinals and sf giants all suck. The Mets could go on a tear.

At the end of the day getting Stroman for two prospects, one of which is a long way away is a deal every team should be wanting to make l.
   17. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5865988)
13. Who says they sell Syndergaard ? Maybe trading for Cano and Diaz and Stroman is attempting to win.


And God bless 'em if they do. Hell, even if they fall short of the postseason, having the home nine playing for something late into the season is the whole damn point.

   18. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5865990)
Maybe trading for Cano and Diaz and Stroman is attempting to win.
In the immortal words of that great American poet, Foghorn Leghorn, "I say, son, you're goin' about it all wrong!"
   19. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5865999)
I don’t quite get this, if the Mets are going to trade Syndergaard & Wheeler, as has been reported.


Why? They trade Syndergaard for some good prospects, replace him with Stroman who they get for presumably worse prospects. Combined, it's a strictly baseball trade.

"Sellers" and "Buyers" aren't like etched-in-the-cosmos binary things. They're just sports-babble words.
   20. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5866002)
The way to get flags is to have the 1 in 6 odds every year, and not focus on any given crap shoot.


Exactly. Precisely. Exactly-precisely, precisely-exactly.
   21. oscar madisox Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5866004)
I assume this isn't the Mets' last trade, this deadline.


I imagine its also possible that this isn't their last trade involving Stroman this deadline.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5866005)
In omnichatter over the weekend I said the Yankees shouldn't even worry about starting pitchers for the post season. I'm coming to believe that more and more.

Take 12 good pitchers, and use 4-5 of them every game. No one throws more than 3 or 4 IP. Throw them in unpredictable order. Keep the other team guessing, and focus on matchups. With the extra days off, they should be fine.
   23. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 29, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5866009)
I think the Mets got Stroman because they wanted him for next year more so than this year. This appears to be a farily good deal for the Mets considering the price although I don't know much about the prospects in the deal. I think that means that they will Syndergaard and hope that he's better next year than he is this year. The Mets aren't going to re-sign Wheeler, even if they probably could if that's what they wanted. If they trade Wheeler and keep Stroman, I believe they are hoping that they are good enough to contend next year with a Big-3 of deGrom, Stroman, and hopefully a more effective Thor.

They need to get better defensively and find a CF.

I am happy with this move and won't be upset if they trade Wheeler. If they aren't good next year, they could trade Stroman and/or Thor at the deadline and recoup some assets. But the plan appears to me that they are going for it next year, which I think is right.
   24. bfan Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5866040)
attempting to win.

And God bless 'em if they do. Hell, even if they fall short of the postseason, having the home nine playing for something late into the season is the whole damn point.


This is correct. If this move rallies the Mets team and pumps them up such that they get back in contention this year, and from that boost, becomes the favorites for 2020, then the GM has done a great thing. If however, it does not move the needle, and as a result, with the inevitable decline of the talented top end players as they get older, they have nothing left in the minor league system to replace that aging core (remember where DeGrom and Matz and Conforto and Alsonso and McNeil and Rosario come from), then the GM has not done a great thing.
   25. The Duke Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5866046)
Except that if the team performs badly again next year that multiple players could still be dealt for a nice return. I see no downside for the Mets
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5866047)
with the inevitable decline of the talented top end players as they get older

Is this really a risk? No one on the current roster is both old and good. The old guys suck already. The good guys are all young.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5866049)
This is correct. If this move rallies the Mets team and pumps them up such that they get back in contention this year, and from that boost, becomes the favorites for 2020, then the GM has done a great thing. If however, it does not move the needle, and as a result, with the inevitable decline of the talented top end players as they get older, they have nothing left in the minor league system to replace that aging core (remember where DeGrom and Matz and Conforto and Alsonso and McNeil and Rosario come from), then the GM has not done a great thing.


No. If this move keeps the Mets in contention over the back half of the season, where the teams' games are meaningful and fans are excited, that is a good thing for the club and its fans, regardless what the hell happens in the crapshoot and beyond. Obviously, if one of these two guys turns into something meaningful, it will come at a cost. But playing meaningful games in August and September has real value in and of itself.

   28. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5866050)
If this move rallies the Mets team and pumps them up such that they get back in contention this year, and from that boost, becomes the favorites for 2020, then the GM has done a great thing.
Soooo much false assumption of causality in just this one sentence.
   29. DFA Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5866052)
I'm just fascinated to see how eliminating August trades will impact the 7/31 deadline, especially in the context of how prospects are being valued (overvalued?).
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5866055)
So, checking on my comment, I agree with myself :-)

This is the Mets core for the next two years

1B Alonso 24
SS Rosario 23
?? McNeil 27
OF Conforto 26
OF Nimmo 26
?? Smith 24
SP deGrom 31
SP Stroman 28
SP Syndergaard 26
SP Matz 28

Age related decline shouldn't be a big issue. Getting everyone to the right positions is a big issue.

McNeill should be playing a lot of 3B to see if he can be the starter there next year. Smith needs to be showcased for an off-season trade.
   31. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5866056)
It gets lost in all the new-age babble-cum-junk science, but a team would prefer to win 70 games rather than 60 because if they reach 70, they're closer to having a contender and it signals that that is the case.
   32. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5866058)
I'm just fascinated to see how eliminating August trades will impact the 7/31 deadline, especially in the context of how prospects are being valued (overvalued?).


Overvalued. Their perceived value has gone up because of reasons having nothing to do with baseball; primarily, the fact that we can know more way more about them in the 21st century media age and they're therefore tangible and sellable to the fanbase and commentators in a way they weren't when the reality of communications kept them distant and obscure. But that "value" is entirely an illusion. They're no more valuable in pure baseball terms than they ever were, and there's no reason to think they would be. People will say, "Oh, but they're cheaper," to which the only rational retort is, "Yeah, but they've always been cheaper."
   33. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5866061)
No. If this move keeps the Mets in contention over the back half of the season, where the teams' games are meaningful and fans are excited, that is a good thing for the club and its fans, regardless what the hell happens in the crapshoot and beyond. Obviously, if one of these two guys turns into something meaningful, it will come at a cost. But playing meaningful games in August and September has real value in and of itself.


Agreed philsophically, but the Mets aren't really "in contention" now.
   34. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5866063)
They're close enough, and the teams ahead of them flawed enough, that they shouldn't be packing it in.
   35. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5866066)
We agree on more than we disagree with, and the fact that a particular season has gone bad isn't now, and has never been a reason to pack it in and start dumping guys you could win in the next two or three years with. That idea is stupid junk science, too. Other than from the demands of the usual suspect blabbermouths, there's no imperative to have to declare an organizational path just because a trade deadline is coming up.

It's in the interest of GMs and ownership to be able to sell fanbases on "rebuilding" (*) and they're now able to do it far easier because of the reasons delineated in 32. Which means the ultimate source of all the media/commmentator babble about all this baseball philosophy is a fundamental secular acceleration in communication methods having nothing to do with baseball. It's virtually all an illusion.

(*) More money for the owners -- see Ricketts and Crane -- all else equal, longer job tenure for the GMs.
   36. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5866069)
In tangible baseball terms, the Cubs and Astros were no more likely to win a single World Series in the six/seven years since they engaged in their tank job than if they'd simply played it down the middle and tried to hit the crapshoot every year right from the get-go.
   37. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 29, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5866076)
So, checking on my comment, I agree with myself :-)

This is the Mets core for the next two years

SS Rosario 23


There has been talk to move Rosario to CF, as his defense at short has been so bad. That would have to be an offseason move so he could transition, and they would have to find a replacement shortstop.
   38. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 02:59 PM (#5866084)
There has been talk to move Rosario to CF, as his defense at short has been so bad. That would have to be an offseason move so he could transition, and they would have to find a replacement shortstop.

Is Andres Gimenez still considered an upper-level prospect? He's not exactly tearing up AA (.244 average, more SBs than BBs) but he's a shortstop. Of course, he's only 20 so unless he suddenly transmogrifies into the next Mike Trout they'd need someone for a year or two.
   39. Karl from NY Posted: July 29, 2019 at 03:06 PM (#5866088)
They're close enough, and the teams ahead of them flawed enough, that they shouldn't be packing it in.

No, they're out of it for this year. 6 games back sounds surmountable... if that were trailing one team. They have to climb past SIX teams right now and it's functionally impossible they'd *all* tank enough for the Mets to vault over.

And that's just to make the WC coin flip game of course. Losing that does no good whatsoever - nobody even remembers the Mets were there as recently as 2016.
   40. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 29, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5866091)

And that's just to make the WC coin flip game of course. Losing that does no good whatsoever - nobody even remembers the Mets were there as recently as 2016.


They were talking about it during the Mets trip to San Fran. Bumgardner and Thor both pitched that series.
   41. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5866093)

Is Andres Gimenez still considered an upper-level prospect?


MLB.com has him at #94.
   42. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5866101)
No, they're out of it for this year. 6 games back sounds surmountable... if that were trailing one team. They have to climb past SIX teams right now and it's functionally impossible they'd *all* tank enough for the Mets to vault over.

And that's just to make the WC coin flip game of course. Losing that does no good whatsoever - nobody even remembers the Mets were there as recently as 2016.


Bullshit. Having an entire second half of the season with games that count, where you care about the outcomes, is great. Even if your team flames out in the one-game playoff, or even comes up a little short, being in the chase has value. It's a damn shame that too many fans, sportswriters and front office executives have forgotten that and replaced it with this ring or nothing nonsense.



   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5866111)
Bullshit. Having an entire second half of the season with games that count, where you care about the outcomes, is great. Even if your team flames out in the one-game playoff, or even comes up a little short, being in the chase has value. It's a damn shame that too many fans, sportswriters and front office executives have forgotten that and replaced it with this ring or nothing nonsense.


Amen.
   44. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5866112)
Bullshit. Having an entire second half of the season with games that count, where you care about the outcomes, is great. Even if your team flames out in the one-game playoff, or even comes up a little short, being in the chase has value. It's a damn shame that too many fans, sportswriters and front office executives have forgotten that and replaced it with this ring or nothing nonsense.


Yep, totally weird and bizarre. "Asset accumulation" has literally no relevance beyond what the assets produce in actual baseball games. That's their only value.
   45. . Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5866113)
Amen.


Thirded, obviously. It's a ridiculous state of affairs that SoSH's obviously true statement even needs to be repeated and litigated.
   46. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5866116)

The Mets only need to pass 5 teams to get a WC spot, not 6.

Having an entire second half of the season with games that count, where you care about the outcomes, is great.

Yep. Honestly, if you had told me in February that Cespedes would miss the entire season, Nimmo would be injured, Cano would bat .240, Diaz would have an ERA over 5 (ok, 4.95 currently), and DeGrom would be the only starter with an ERA under 4, and we wouldn't be completely eliminated at the end of July, I'd be pretty happy.

This is a team that could still go on a tear if the bullpen has a few good weeks or they get a few weeks of starters going deep into games. It's unlikely but not impossible. I'm glad to see them not completely throwing in the towel.

I think they plan to trade Wheeler, who is a FA at the end of this season, rather than re-sign him. Stroman is his replacement for the rest of this year and next year.
   47. JJ1986 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5866121)
Source: A Jason Vargas trade is close
Woohoo!
   48. rconn23 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5866125)
Vargas to the Phillies. LOLOLOL
   49. Davo Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5866127)
Jason Vargas has a 3.66 ERA in 18 starts this year.

Chris Sale has a 4.26 ERA. Aaron Nola 3.72. Trevor Bauer 3.79.

So, Vargas is better than ALL of those chumps.
   50. Adam Starblind Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:03 PM (#5866128)
I was about to post that the Mets have 6 starters, so somebody's gotta go. Later, Vargas. Not a terrible pitcher, but too ugly to have around. So bad looking.
   51. rconn23 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5866129)
"Chris Sale has a 4.26 ERA. Aaron Nola 3.72. Trevor Bauer 3.79."

I, for one, would have supported a Sale for Vargas trade straight up.
   52. rconn23 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:09 PM (#5866130)
Mets getting a 25-year old catcher hitting .195 repeating AA in return, apparently.
   53. Davo Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5866133)
51- Psssht, like the Mets would ever agree to that!
   54. Karl from NY Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5866136)
(#42) I call bullshit right back at you. The Mets are 50-55 right now. What are the odds they somehow rip out a .700 tear to wind up at 90 wins? Something like 5% at best?

And what are the chances that the Cubs AND Nationals AND Phillies AND Brewers AND Giants AND Diamondbacks ALL go .500ish from here to finish under that? No more than 50% for each team individually. Less in aggregate considering when they play each other and someone has to win.

You're talking like one chance in nearly a thousand. The Mets are dead and anything else is either wishcasting or mathematical illiteracy.

Making up 6 games against one rival is unlikely but feasible. Making up 6 games against 6 different rivals is not. For every "but this team in that year came back!!" instance, there are thousands of team-years that didn't.
   55. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5866140)
I was calling bullshit on the idea that losing the wild card "does no good whatsoever."

The Mets are not likely to pass all of the teams they need to (though it's made more likely since none of them are particularly good), but they can be in the mix. That matters.

This idea that the only thing that counts is who's left standing at the end of the playoff tournament is nonsense.

   56. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:36 PM (#5866149)
In order for the Mets to make a run, a lot of things would need to happen
1) Better performances from starters- possible
2) Better performances from relievers, plus they need to add an arm.
3) They need something from centerfield. If the Mets are serious about a run (which I think is crazy) they need to add a decent center.
4) Better output from second base. Either Cano needs to improve, or they need to move McNeil to second and play Dominic Smith in left more. He gives up a lot with glove though. I don't see the Mets doing this though.

The Mets have a 3.5% chance of making playoffs. Those are not great odds.
   57. Banta Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5866152)
If the Mets play above .500 ball the rest of the way out, it's worth it for the fanbase engagement both this season and going into the next, and for Brodie personally, it helps the PR battle. The trade was a no-brainer for anyone in his position, especially in light of his moves and attitude coming in. There's no regrouping here, the Mets will be "competing" as long as he's GM, for better or worse.

Personally, at least it's interesting.
   58. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:46 PM (#5866153)
#54 there are two Wild Card spots. They only need to pass 5 of those teams, not 6.

The *best* teams of that bunch are on pace to win 86 games. None of them is projected to win more than 86 (well, the Cubs are, but they're projected to win the division and the Cards to finish with only 84 wins). One of those 6 teams might go on a tear and finish with 90+ wins. If the Mets play .630 ball and finish with 86 wins, and the other 5 play like they've been playing (keep in mind 3 of those teams have been outscored this season, 2 even worse than the Mets), well, it will be a crazy ending to the season.

I mean, it's like a 5% chance. You don't mortgage the future to go for it. But you don't have to wave the white flag just yet either.
   59. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5866155)
I mean, it's like a 5% chance. You don't mortgage the future to go for it. But you don't have to wave the white flag just yet either.


That's my feeling. I'm not advocating the Mets go on a spending spree. Just that they still have a chance to be in the mix in the second half, and that has value regardless the end result.

   60. Bote Man Posted: July 29, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5866157)
Matt Gelb @MattGelb
Phillies have said they erred last July when they did not consider clubhouse fit when acquiring some veterans. It'll be interesting to hear about background work done in this instance (with Vargas).

LOLz
   61. billyshears Posted: July 29, 2019 at 06:10 PM (#5866160)
The Mets season has been really weird. They have two first year position players in the top 15 of wRC+. That's an absurdly positive development. If every other player on the team had produced within reasonable parameters of expected performance, they would be a playoff team. But, like, it doesn't matter what the projection systems say - any aging 2b the Mets acquire is going to turn into Carlos Baerga and any closer they acquire will eventually morph into John Franco. Still, I look at the roster and read articles clamoring for the Mets to rebuild while mocking the Mets for attempting to compete in the near present, and I can't help but think that those conclusions are more based on the aura of disaster and incompetence that has enveloped the Mets for 30 years than a rationale evaluation of the roster.

And still, while I'm pretty resolute as a fan, I've finally given in to the belief that there's some sort of mystical hex that condemns the Mets to futility. One year in ten, a light will shine through the darkness and the Mets will go on a captivating run. The other nine years it's just going to be an embarrassing struggle against the forces of inevitability. I'm pretty sure this year is going to be one of the nine, but not, like, 100% sure.
   62. Bote Man Posted: July 29, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5866162)
From the "don't let the door slam you in the butt" desk:

Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets
A Blue Jays official on Stroman: “Sometimes players get real comfortable when they have been there a while and they think they are the veteran. I think when he gets into a group with deGrom and Syndergaard over there he will fit right in like he is supposed to do.”
   63. Walt Davis Posted: July 29, 2019 at 07:13 PM (#5866170)
Put me down with the old fogey "trying to win more games is a useful endeavour" crowd.

That said, in any given deadline season, it depends what's on offer. If you have a chance to pick up Stroman (owed just $7.5 next year) in exchange for little, you take it. Maybe you decide he's the better long-term bet than Noah (or easier to sign) and you extend him. If somebody wants to trade you a tippy-top prospect and other stuff for Noah, maybe you take that too. You're losing Wheeler either way probably and he's unlikely to be the difference over the rest of the season so if you get a good offer for him, you probably still do the deal. There is always a balancing act between wins today and wins tomorrow and that doesn't go out the window at the deadline ... but I suppose it's possible that it's counter-productive if some trades for today and others for tomorrow cancel each other out.
   64. SoSH U at work Posted: July 29, 2019 at 07:25 PM (#5866172)
I suppose it's possible that it's counter-productive if some trades for today and others for tomorrow cancel each other out.


Isn't that the Rays' model?

   65. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 29, 2019 at 07:37 PM (#5866175)

Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets
A Blue Jays official on Stroman: “Sometimes players get real comfortable when they have been there a while and they think they are the veteran. I think when he gets into a group with deGrom and Syndergaard over there he will fit right in like he is supposed to do.”


I don't know what this is supposed to be hinting at.
   66. JJ1986 Posted: July 29, 2019 at 07:50 PM (#5866178)
Stroman is a veteran.
   67. Davo Posted: July 29, 2019 at 08:01 PM (#5866179)
65- Toronto is fed up with Stroman’s hip-hop-style pitch sequences.
   68. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 29, 2019 at 08:02 PM (#5866180)
Mets getting a 25-year old catcher hitting .195 repeating AA in return, apparently
Reportedly, the Mets are saving $2M on the deal, which seems to have been the priority.
   69. Banta Posted: July 29, 2019 at 08:06 PM (#5866182)
If the Mets had acquired an average center fielder instead of Cano and everyone in the bullpen wasn't dreadful, it would have made a huge difference, even with the starters outside of deGrom being very meh. What sucks about that appraisal is that the current management totally whiffed with regards to their first off-season strategy. They also acquired a catcher who their top two pitchers don't want to pitch to.

All optimism I have about the team is on the strength of Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, and deGrom and they were already here (though they did resign deGrom). Up until this trade, the Mets new front office has been badly burned on what they've tried to do and I just don't think they can survive in their environment without an immediate change in results. And that makes me concerned more than anything, because running through GMs isn't a great path to success and that seems like the train that we're on now.

To be clear, I like the Stroman trade but I have a feeling I'm not gonna like the next one (Vargas is a non-entity, current year above-averagish aside)
   70. Howie Menckel Posted: July 29, 2019 at 08:31 PM (#5866188)
according to WFAN radio in NYC, the non-prospect who the Mets got went to college at Penn with owner Jeff Wilpon's kid (so Fred Wilpon's grandkid).

it's the Mets, so who knows? I doubt The Onion writers even waste their time with the Mets.
   71. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5866192)
(#42) I call bullshit right back at you. The Mets are 50-55 right now. What are the odds they somehow rip out a .700 tear to wind up at 90 wins? Something like 5% at best?

Fangraphs gives the Mets 15%. That seems high, but it might be 10%.
   72. Howie Menckel Posted: July 29, 2019 at 09:13 PM (#5866195)
I have no idea why the Mets bullpen has been really good since the All-Star break. but if it somehow continued, and the offense maintains its level, they would win a lot of games. (if IFS and BUTS were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas! - Eddie Kasko)

meanwhile, Vargas was a 6th SP for Mets now and despite a 102 ERA+ this year - which almost no teams have at 5th SP and many don't even have at 4 SP - he wasn't going to fetch all that much.

but why would you deal him to one of those wild card contenders? there are plenty of AL teams that would give up a mid-20s-aged C non-prospect.
   73. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 29, 2019 at 09:18 PM (#5866196)
Put me down with the old fogey "trying to win more games is a useful endeavour" crowd.


Me too. There is value in trying to be competitive through to the end of the season.

I just think the trade was good one for the Mets regardless of where there are on the winning curve, etc. Any team that could have acquired Stroman for pennies on the dollar should have made this trade. You can never, ever, ever, ever have enough good pitching, ever.
   74. The Duke Posted: July 29, 2019 at 09:28 PM (#5866197)
So replacing Vargas with Stroman seems smart. Get younger, get better and get more flexible on deals
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: July 29, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5866199)
Stroman today said yes, he was angry about the trade per overheard post-game locker room tantrum - but claims he was mad about the "process" of how it was handled, not coming to the Mets.

he grew up on Long Island (as did Matz) as a Mets fan, and posted a boyhood photo today of him in a little Mets uniform. the CitiField crowd will be fired up, and if he/team get off to a good start, he'll be local royalty.

I'm still trying to digest the idea that the Mets might have made a smart trade, but.....
   76. Howie Menckel Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:19 PM (#5866204)

the epicenter of the MLB universe - at least til Wednesday night

07.29... Rival evaluators have predicted to ESPN's Buster Olney that the Mets will trade Edwin Diaz prior to Wednesday's deadline.
Spin: Olney adds that the Red Sox "are viewed as the suitors most invested in the chase." Boston could obviously use some bullpen help, but they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and the Mets are reportedly looking for a package bigger than the one they gave up for Diaz over the winter. On paper, it's difficult to see this one lining up.

07.29... Rival teams have predicted to ESPN's Buster Olney that the Astros will wind up trading for Zack Wheeler.
Spin: The fit makes sense, especially if the Astros aren't willing to part with top prospect Kyle Tucker. Wheeler's 4.71 ERA this season is a disappointment, but he boasts a 137/34 K/BB ratio over 124 1/3 innings and is the kind of arm that the Astros could probably get the most out of. The righty landing in Houston might be the best-case scenario for his fantasy outlook.

07.29... ESPN's Buster Olney reports that other teams are aware of the tension between Noah Syndergaard and the Mets' front office and believe it will be a factor in their decision whether to trade him.
Spin: It's not clear what exactly caused the rift between the two sides. The Mets have already traded Jason Vargas and are expected to trade at least one of Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler, as well. Wheeler still seems to be the more likely one to go since he's an impending free agent, but perhaps a frayed relationship between Thor and the front office will help lead to his exit.
   77. Walt Davis Posted: July 29, 2019 at 11:59 PM (#5866219)
I just think the trade was good one for the Mets regardless of where there are on the winning curve, etc.

How dare you say in one sentence what I was trying to say in 5! Add the second sentence of "and that doesn't negate that (say) Wheeler for a solid return isn't also a good trade regardless..."

Isn't that the Rays' model?

Don't know their transactions well enough to say. The specific example I was contemplating is "what does it mean if the Mets now trade Noah?"** If they got back something much better than they gave up for Stroman then that's probably a hit on short-term value (esp given Noah under control for an extra year) but a plus on future value ... so pretty good. If they got back basically the same as what they gave up, then not good. If it's somewhere in between and they lose maybe 3 wins over the next 2 years while gaining 4 wins over 2022-24 then that's pretty much a wash ... and maybe they'd be better off just doing the Noah deal. I just suspect that while a certain amount of balance is good, a specific team probably should put more emphasis on either the present or the future.

** I think all moot now. If they planned to trade Wheeler or Noah, they wouldn't have traded Vargas. That's potentially one way in which the single deadline changes things -- in the past, the Mets could have done this deal, still tried to trade Wheeler/Noah knowing that, if they couldn't find the right deal, then they'd still be able to find some deal for Vargas after the deadline. It's harder now to wait for all of the dominoes to fall. (Granted, I'm not sure there are examples of such a sequence in the past.)

   78. Adam Starblind Posted: July 30, 2019 at 07:39 AM (#5866225)
The Mets are dead and anything else is either wishcasting or mathematical illiteracy


In other words, a sports fan.
   79. . Posted: July 30, 2019 at 07:47 AM (#5866227)
The Fangraphs/BB-ref playoff projection "odds" are junk science.
   80. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 30, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5866253)
I don't get the Vargas trade if they are still shopping Wheeler and Thor. They could have held off a day as they will need a starter for the rest of the year.
   81. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5866259)
I don't get the Vargas trade if they are still shopping Wheeler and Thor. They could have held off a day as they will need a starter for the rest of the year.

My guess is the cheap-ass Wilpons make them offset Stroman's salary. Vargas make $8M, Stroman $7.4M.
   82. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 12:33 PM (#5866364)
42

Even if your team flames out in the one-game playoff, or even comes up a little short, being in the chase has value. It's a damn shame that too many fans, sportswriters and front office executives have forgotten that and replaced it with this ring or nothing nonsense.


I call it the Yankification of the sport. Met fans are as guilty of it as anyone, as laughable as that may sound at the moment. After the 2015 World Series, Yankee fans were all, "METS SUCKZZZ!!1!1!!!!!!!!11 LOL!" I would go, "Um...excuse me, but tell me again who was just in the World Series?" They'd be "Yeah, but they didn't win it! LOLZ!" Like there's some kind of shame in a NL pennant.
   83. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5866375)
I call it the Yankification of the sport. Met fans are as guilty of it as anyone, as laughable as that may sound at the moment. After the 2015 World Series, Yankee fans were all, "METS SUCKZZZ!!1!1!!!!!!!!11 LOL!" I would go, "Um...excuse me, but tell me again who was just in the World Series?" They'd be "Yeah, but they didn't win it! LOLZ!" Like there's some kind of shame in a NL pennant.

Well, when your team made the playoffs every year for 15 years, you can sort of understand the mentality. I still think it's wrong (pennants are always worth celebrating).

But why have other fanbases adopted it? Why do knowledgeable fans around hear root for complete teardowns in search of a single WS?
   84. . Posted: July 30, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5866376)
Why do knowledgeable fans around hear root for complete teardowns in search of a single WS?


Because they think it promotes and ratifies doctrinaire saberism.
   85. formerly dp Posted: July 30, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5866492)
I am not a huge fan of the buy high/sell low strat BVW has been employing: d'Arnaud was cut loose at his absolute lowest point, and has since caught fire for the Rays. They grabbed Cano and Diaz after both had good seasons for Seattle last year. Bruce and Swarzak--sent to balance cash after miserable years last season--have each been decent this year. They even gave up 3 prospects for Broxton, who they then cut when--surprise!--it turned out that he couldn't actually hit. If they deal Diaz and Thor, it'll be a similar situation: both have underperformed and their value is lower now than it was at the start of the season. Davis is the only guy BVW grabbed who has exceeded expectations, and even in his case, they gave up a few players to get him. Very bummed about the team's leadership, if not necessarily the roster as currently constructed.
   86. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5866547)
Very bummed about the team's leadership, if not necessarily the roster as currently constructed.


Thank Sandy Alderson for practically all of the upside on said roster: McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, Dom Smith, Rosario, Thor, etc. All came aboard under his watch. All Brodie can point to so far are JD and now Stroman.
   87. SoSH U at work Posted: July 30, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5866555)
All Brodie can point to so far are JD and now Stroman.


That's all right. Eight of the 12 most valuable Dodgers in 2019 were brought into the organization by Ned Colletti, and he's been gone for five seasons.

   88. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5866559)

#85, they had d'Arnaud for 6 years and he couldn't stay healthy for even one full season. I don't blame them for finally cutting him loose. If he can put things together for Tampa, good for him/them. I feel similarly about trading Bruce -- this team doesn't need another corner OF.

They overpaid for Cano/Diaz and that trade has played out about as poorly as one could imagine, but it's not like it was either guy just had one good season prior to the trade.
   89. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 30, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5866567)

I should add - even after Bruce had a solid start to the season for the Mariners, it's not like they got much back in return for him from the Phillies.
   90. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 31, 2019 at 10:27 AM (#5866811)
Curiouser and curiouser...

"I don't think anything is going to happen … I think I'm staying put," Syndergaard said, via SNY.


Maybe they are going for it.
   91. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 31, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5866818)
Maybe the are going for it.

Going for it, and planning on competing in 2020-21 are going to look very similar. They've got Syndergaard controlled for 2 more years.

I still expect Wheeler to go.
   92. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:38 AM (#5869421)

So, the Mets have now won 13 of 14 and are a half-game out of the Wild Card. They’ve passed two of the five teams they needed to pass and are tied with a third. They have three games coming up against the Nats, and a pretty tough schedule going forward in general, but this should be interesting. And not to toot my own horn, but:

This is a team that could still go on a tear if the bullpen has a few good weeks or they get a few weeks of starters going deep into games. It's unlikely but not impossible. I'm glad to see them not completely throwing in the towel.

....

#54 there are two Wild Card spots. They only need to pass 5 of those teams, not 6.

The *best* teams of that bunch are on pace to win 86 games. None of them is projected to win more than 86 (well, the Cubs are, but they're projected to win the division and the Cards to finish with only 84 wins). One of those 6 teams might go on a tear and finish with 90+ wins. If the Mets play .630 ball and finish with 86 wins, and the other 5 play like they've been playing (keep in mind 3 of those teams have been outscored this season, 2 even worse than the Mets), well, it will be a crazy ending to the season.

I mean, it's like a 5% chance. You don't mortgage the future to go for it. But you don't have to wave the white flag just yet either.


Basically everything I said might happen by the end of the season happened in 10 days. Baseball is a wonderful game.
   93. Meatwad Posted: August 08, 2019 at 02:52 AM (#5869423)
Give it another week and things will change. Baseball really is fun. I left the mets for dead in april.
   94. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2019 at 07:49 AM (#5869443)
#93 sure. Against good teams the Mets could very well struggle. Their bullpen is still a liability. The one saving grace is that 29 of their remaining 47 games are at home.
   95. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 08, 2019 at 10:38 AM (#5869486)
#93 sure. Against good teams the Mets could very well struggle. Their bullpen is still a liability. The one saving grace is that 29 of their remaining 47 games are at home.


Beat up on the bad teams, play .500 against the good ones. That will win you a pennant more times than not.

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