Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, September 30, 2019

Where Mets, Noah Syndergaard go from here is complicated

he 2019 Mets season concluded Sunday afternoon in characteristically roller-coaster fashion, Dom Smith’s first at-bat since July 26 producing a walk-off, three-run homer to give the Mets an 11-inning, 7-6 victory over the Braves at Citi Field. Before the late-inning zaniness that also featured two homers by angry ex-Met Adeiny Hechavarria, Syndergaard ended his worst full big-league season on a positive note, allowing three runs and five hits over seven innings, walking one and striking out nine.

“Huge,” Syndergaard said. “… To be able to finish on a high note personally and as a team is something we can take into this offseason and build off of that.”

About that offseason, and the likelihood that the Mets will at least consider trading Syndergaard for the third time in a year, “I’m confident that, going into spring training next year, we’ll be reporting to beautiful Port St. Lucie and being a Met,” he said. “I love being a Met. It has a special place in my heart.”

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 30, 2019 at 08:09 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, thor

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. JJ1986 Posted: September 30, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5884585)
Maybe don't publicize the fact that you are trying to trade him, even if you are trying to trade him.
   2. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5884601)
Or, y'know, don't trade him when his value is down from where it was and go into next season with a potentially excellent rotation.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5884603)
Let's remember what happened at the trade deadline. Everyone knew the Mets would trade one of Syndergaard or Wheeler or both. And what did they do? They traded neither, and went out and got Stroman.
   4. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5884607)
I want this thread to be used to discuss this season and offseason plan as well.

On one hand, a lot of good things happened this season. It looks like the Mets might have their first legit homegrown star at firstbase. Alonso was simply amazing this year. McNeil was great, better than we could have expected. Rosario looks like he's going to be at least a solid regular. JD Davis played well and Conforto had a good year. Ramos was solid. deGrom was awesome again.

That said, it's disappointing that the Mets missed the playoffs with essentially a full year of healthy starting pitching. The Mets had four starters who made 30 plus starts, and Stroman/Vargas made 30+ starts in the 5th spot. Noah Syndergaard was OK, but I expected better. Centerfield remains a disaster. The Mets got nothing from Cespedes and Lowrie, little from Cano, and less than nothing from Diaz. Nimmo was pretty good when available but he missed a ton of time.

The Mets need to figure out the bullpen obviously and find someone to play CF. They have a bunch of corner guys and a good GM figures out a way to turn those pieces into pieces that fit better.

It was better year than most for Met fans. It could have been better but we are used to worse.
   5. Davo Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5884610)
Keep him, because he’s very good at playing baseball.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5884612)
I think the Mets are in kind of a tough spot, roster-wise. I'd give Conforto RF, which means they have Cano, McNeil, Davis and Cespedes in 2B-3B-LF. I'd probably make Jeff the regular at 3B and let Davis spell all 3 of the other guys. Lowrie is a PH, but maybe doesn't fit on the roster with Dominic Smith as a PH. I'd try to trade Dom for any decent reliever.

This is like the fourth year in a row that the Mets need a CF. I would have liked to go after Ian Happ, but he was too good in his return to the big leagues. I see so little that's available there that I would probably just use Nimmo.

I want a better backup catcher, but wouldn't spend much on one.

I don't think the Mets have any starting pitchers in the high minors and Walker Lockett is awful. They need someone to replace Wheeler.

I'd keep Diaz hoping that changing the ball at least rebuilds his value. I'd try to avoid signing any relievers to big money. Get some failed starters or young guys who throw hard. Dump all of Avilan, Bashlor, Mazza, Lockett. I'm still intrigued by Sewald.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: September 30, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5884614)
The Mets are basically set everywhere except the bullpen and centerfield.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: September 30, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5884620)
I'd accept an offer of Mets get a good bullpen, keep Wheeler and Thor, and settle for Nimmo/Lagares (and some Conforto) in CF. that dog can hunt
   9. Lassus Posted: September 30, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5884621)
What is the argument for Sewald to still be intriguing?
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5884624)
The Mets are basically set everywhere except the bullpen and centerfield.

And the excess of corner guys that need to be converted into something useful.

If you go with this lineup:

C Ramos/somebody
1B Alonso
2B platoon Cano/Lowrie
SS Rosario
3B McNeill
LF Nimmo
CF ???
RF Conforto

You need a CF. You need to trade one of Davis or Smith.

If they QO Wheeler and he accepts, the rotation could be very strong. The pen is a tire fire.

   11. Davo Posted: September 30, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5884636)
The Mets are kinda like when you just let the computer draft your fantasy baseball team. You wind up with a bunch of good players but then it’s like “Dammit, why did they give me 6 good first basemen and no center fielder? And 4 closers but my best starter is Jakob Junis?!?!?”
   12. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5884637)
10 - Snap, purposely ignoring a possible Cespedes comeback or are you simply bearish on it?
   13. PreservedFish Posted: September 30, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5884638)
And the excess of corner guys that need to be converted into something useful.


Dom Smith has nowhere to play, so they should think about moving him.

But Cano/Lowrie/McNeil/Davis for 2B/3B and a little bit of LF doesn't seem like a huge problem. They'll probably all get injured and we'll end up with Hechavarria again somehow.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5884646)
10 - Snap, purposely ignoring a possible Cespedes comeback or are you simply bearish on it?

I'm assuming he's done. The injury sounded gruesome. I think the Mets are also hoping he's done. Gives them insurance money to play with.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5884648)
But Cano/Lowrie/McNeil/Davis for 2B/3B and a little bit of LF doesn't seem like a huge problem. They'll probably all get injured and we'll end up with Hechavarria again somehow.

True, but if you could convert Davis into a player that fills an actual need, I think you have to consider it.
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5884675)
Mets relative to NL average, by position (averages are adjusted for example, for the fact that the average NL team was -2.8 WAA in the bullpen, so the Mets' -3.6 is only a -0.8 in this table):

SP 5.6
RP (0.8)
C (0.7)
1B 2.7
2B (0.9)
3B (0.4)
SS (1.1)
LF 0.6
CF (1.4)
RF 1.2
DH 0.0
PH 0.1

Ramos was above average but Nido was below replacement by WAR. We could use a better backup although I know some of the pitchers like throwing to Nido.

Cano could continue to decline so I don't view having strong backups for 2B/3B as a problem. At the very least he should be platooning with someone who can hit lefties.

Not surprisingly, bullpen and CF are the other obvious weaknesses. Rosario was a bit below average but he looked much better after the first couple months of the season, so I'm not worried about him for next year.

   17. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: September 30, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5884701)
I gotta tell you, I haven't been this excited/anxious to get to "next year" -- absent some ludicrous Winter Meetings action -- since the end of the 1985 season. Going into 1987, 1989 and 2007, I was actually overconfident. I mean, I sounded like a Yankee fan, for Godssakes!

Won't make that mistake again anytime soon...

   18. Walt Davis Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:37 AM (#5884835)
I would have liked to go after Ian Happ

You have a low threshold for "center fielder." (OK, he was adequate out there this year in not a lot of time.)

Still, he probably wouldn't be THAT hard to acquire, at least in the abstract. He added 177 points of OPS and 5 HR over his last 8 games to get that nice-looking "seasonal" line (480/519/1200 over that stretch). Alas, the Cubs #1 need is a CF so unless you're parting with Thor or taking on Heyward's contract or something equally silly, it's hard to see a fit. I'll save you some time and let you know that the only thing close to a good CF among the FAs is Gardner. So you're gonna have to trade something but I don't see how you get a starting CF for Smith or Davis but maybe you can get a glove-only guy (Cubs have a similar problem).

It wouldn't have solved all problems but man, I wish the Cubs had signed Cain when they had the chance (yes, I know he didn't hit this year).
   19. Adam Starblind Posted: October 01, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5884883)
This year felt a little like 1997 to me. Obviously 2017-18 do not compare to 1992-96 in terms of prolonged ineptitude. I just mean that I feel good about the team winning 86 games despite not making the playoffs, and it's a fun group particularly in light of excellent young talent (ish in McNeil's case). Plus in the present case, a Cy Young starter (or at least Cy Young caliber).

Everyone prefers to make the playoffs, but I can't say that the 87-win, wildcard exit 2016 Mets were considerably more satisfying, for instance.
   20. Esoteric Posted: October 01, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5884893)
I'm not even a Mets fan (obviously) and I found this season's squad to be extremely likable, and the games enjoyable to watch. There is no reason they can't compete for a Wild Card spot next season if they fix their tire-fire of a bullpen, especially given that the Nationals may be without Strasburg and Rendon. But...as Nationals fans can tell you, easier said than done. They're clearly a more talented team than the Phillies right now.

I wonder how many homers Pete Alonso would have hit with a non-sillyball. Probably still in the 40s, kid's got some ridiculous power.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 10:34 AM (#5884896)
There is no reason they can't compete for a Wild Card spot next season

Why can't they compete for the division? The Braves are no super-team. The Nats would have beat them this year if they had even a below average bull-pen.
   22. PreservedFish Posted: October 01, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5884906)
I also think it was a good year for the Mets. Lots to enjoy watching. Alonso is a joy. McNeil impressed. It is a privilege to watch DeGrom's mastery. The giddy finish on Dom Smith's homerun seemed very appropriate.

Going forward, the lineup has easily identifiable holes. If they have Wheeler/Syndergaard/Matz/Stroman all healthy next season, one of those guys is going to give them an All-Star #2 starter, and as a group they could all be much better. (Of course they could all be much worse too)

I don't know how you fix the bullpen, but we can hope they figure it out.
   23. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5884918)
This year felt a little like 1997 to me. Obviously 2017-18 do not compare to 1992-96 in terms of prolonged ineptitude. I just mean that I feel good about the team winning 86 games despite not making the playoffs


Good comp, I think.
   24. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5884930)
JBJ could be available, assuming the Sox do go the 'dump payroll' route. His bat may be super streaky, but he does end up around 90 OPS+ with superlative defense (although the vagaries of Rfield may disagree).
   25. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5884931)
The Mets to me were a team of some good players with a whole bunch of WTF guys where you see them in the lineup and you are wondering 'wtf, why is this guy playing?'
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5884935)
JBJ could be available, assuming the Sox do go the 'dump payroll' route. His bat may be super streaky, but he does end up around 90 OPS+ with superlative defense (although the vagaries of Rfield may disagree).

Would you really give anything up to pay Bradley $12M+? He's basically an average player, the glove doesn't grade as special anymore.

I'd be interested in him if the Sox non-tender him.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5884940)
I think the premise would be that they wouldn't have to give anything (or would have to give barely anything) for JBJ for the reasons you describe.
   28. PreservedFish Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5884942)
If JBJ were a righty, he'd be perfect, but with Nimmo as a plausible CF, they should be looking for a righty guy. Lagares would have been perfect himself, if he didn't suck. Broxton was a good gamble that didn't work out. They need a Jake Marisnik type.
   29. JJ1986 Posted: October 01, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5884944)
Looking through depth charts, maybe Kevin Pillar is the righty-platoon guy with good defense. He might be available in trade or non-tender.
   30. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5884947)
The Mets to me were a team of some good players with a whole bunch of WTF guys where you see them in the lineup and you are wondering 'wtf, why is this guy playing?'


Not quite sure who you mean by the "WTF" guys. Guillorme? Rajai? Rene Rivera/Nido?
   31. J in the Slope Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5884974)
To me this season was fun but absolutely a missed opportunity. Before the season started everyone thought the team was a couple of bullpen pieces away from contention, but should have a solid back-end of the 'pen. Turned out that Familia and Diaz were wretched and the team was 2-3 bullpen pieces away. That said, the same team with the same problems should be back next year.

I'd probably keep everyone and try to figure out what Cespedes can offer, if anything.
C - Ramos/Nido/someone
1b - Alonso
2b - Cano/Lowrie
3b - McNeil (2b/lf/rf)
SS - Rosario
RF - Conforto (cf)
CF - Nimmo (lf/rf)
LF - JD Davis (3b)

backup IF1 - Lowrie (2b-3b-emergency SS)/Cano
backup IF2 - ? FA
4th OF - Cespedes
5th OF - Dom Smith (+ 1b)
   32. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5884984)
They definitely need a center fielder. Nimmo is below average in center. They have too many LF/RF types. I don't know if you could get any value for Dom Smith or JD Davis. Davis has a good bat, but is terrible at 3rd and bad in left.
   33. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5884987)
Nimmo isn't the most durable guy in the world and he's passable in center at best. They still need someone who can center well enough to be an everyday option there. They need a trade IMO.
   34. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 01, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5884989)
The problem with Nimmo is not that he is durable (he has been prior to this year), but he had a back/neck injury. Is this likely to come back or hurt his performance?
   35. J in the Slope Posted: October 01, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5884999)
How about grabbing Starling Marte? Nimmo had a better UZR/150 than him last year but Marte was better (and above average) in center the couple of years before that. Marte's on the wrong side of 30 and has two team option years ($11.5m and $12.5m) remaining. I bet JD Davis (.307/.369/.527) would be enough to get him, though maybe it is too much? JD Davis (4 years of team control remaining) for Marte and a reliever (Richard Rodríguez)?

1. Nimmo - L
2. McNeil - L
3. Alonso - R
4. Conforto - L
5. Marte - R
6. Cano - L
7. Ramos - R
8. Rosario - R

Bench:
Lowrie - S
Dom - L
Nido - R
Cespedes - R/IL
   36. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5885004)

Not quite sure who you mean by the "WTF" guys. Guillorme? Rajai? Rene Rivera/Nido?

Yes, and Aaron Altherr.

Hechevarria was pretty bad as well -- a team with as many 2B/3B options as the Mets really shouldn't have given 150 PAs to him but I get it that a lot of guys got hurt and as a backup 2B he wasn't that bad.

The Mets bench wasn't as terrible as it felt last year, and the priority should be filling the obvious holes in the roster. I include backup catcher on that list, unless advanced metrics tell us Nido is much better than his 39 career OPS+.

But the Wild Card will likely be decided by a few games again next year so if we can avoid giving up a couple of wins with terrible backups we should do so.
   37. J in the Slope Posted: October 01, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5885020)
Man, Jarred Kelenic would be nice to have in this system. Finished his season at AA, plays CF, 20 years old. The Mets have *nothing* in the minors in the OF. I can't think of a single prospect in Syracuse, Binghamton, or St. Lucie.
   38. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5885046)

Yeah, Kelenic finished the year the #14 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. I was kind of neutral on the trade during the offseason -- boy was I wrong.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5885065)
Yeah, Kelenic finished the year the #14 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. I was kind of neutral on the trade during the offseason -- boy was I wrong.

You weren't necessarily wrong. Diaz hit like his 5th %-ile outcome, Cano his 35th %-ile outcome, and Kelenic his 85th %-ile. The expected values may have added up in the Mets favor, and it still turned out horribly.
   40. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:19 PM (#5885099)
Never mind that Dunn also made the majors this year. I was against this trade mostly as they gave up too much. Not because I thought Kelenic was that great, but they were taking on a lot fo salary.
   41. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 05:37 PM (#5885108)

I think the trade was ok based on what we knew at the time, although there was more downside risk for the Mets given that they were the ones taking on a lot of additional payroll. I foresaw the possibility that Cano might suck but I really didn't anticipate Diaz being this bad.
   42. J in the Slope Posted: October 01, 2019 at 07:18 PM (#5885127)
The Mets were displacing their biggest breakout surprise of 2018 (McNeil) and were about to sign another 2b (Lowrie) to get a guy with a huge salary on the wrong side of 35. On a franchise that doesn't spend big money anymore. They dealt from a position of weakness (minor league system, especially minor league outfielders) to shore up a position that was already a strength. They did the deal because they didn't want to shell out big bucks on a top-tier reliever. If they didn't need Brodie to be revenue neutral (not that they ever announced that they needed him to be, but I'm sure that was the deal), they could have just spent money on relievers and spent money on Manny Machado. That's what they would have done from 1985 - 2010. Plus they added MORE than Kelenic to take on Cano's salary and Diaz's elite arm.

I was not in favor of the deal when it went down, but I was a big McNeil believer at second.
   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2019 at 07:26 PM (#5885129)
I was not in favor of the deal when it went down, but I was a big McNeil believer at second.

I've always been high on McNeill, but I didn't think this deal would push him out of the lineup. I thought he'd mainly play 3B, but OF was also on the table.
   44. J in the Slope Posted: October 01, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5885158)
Sure, but the infield depth was Alonso, McNeil, Rosario, Frazier, with Lowrie and half of JD Davis. The outfield was Conforto, Nimmo, Lagares, Broxton, the other half of JD Davis, and Cespedes by the All-Star Break. Why add an old, expensive 2b and move McNeil to third when you had Frazier, JD Davis, and Lowrie already at third base?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogLawmakers push for Curt Flood’s enshrinement in Hall of Fame
(14 - 1:27am, Feb 29)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogMLB’s Winning and Losing Efforts to Conquer TV, Part I: The Strike
(4 - 1:26am, Feb 29)
Last: QLE

NewsblogYasiel Puig is still a free agent
(33 - 1:22am, Feb 29)
Last: Howie Menckel

Hall of Merit2021 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(177 - 11:55pm, Feb 28)
Last: Jaack

NewsblogGary Sánchez Takes a Knee
(16 - 11:50pm, Feb 28)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(1506 - 11:45pm, Feb 28)
Last: Tin Angel

NewsblogWhiff: Nats closer Doolittle calmed by lavender oil on glove
(44 - 11:28pm, Feb 28)
Last: the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB).

NewsblogAwestruck Ted Simmons marvels at the Baseball Hall of Fame
(6 - 10:01pm, Feb 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogBregman becomes 7th Astros player hit by pitch in 5 games
(25 - 8:53pm, Feb 28)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogYouTube TV, Sinclair engaged in dispute impacting broadcasts of 15 teams
(38 - 8:51pm, Feb 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogBy 3 to 1 Margin Americans Say Astros Investigation was a Coverup and Players Need to Be Punished
(12 - 8:40pm, Feb 28)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogDavid Ortiz selling baseball mementos, household items
(14 - 7:50pm, Feb 28)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-28-2020
(8 - 6:56pm, Feb 28)
Last: Hank Gillette

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1924 Ballot
(2 - 5:45pm, Feb 28)
Last: John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(701 - 4:44pm, Feb 28)
Last: AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther

Page rendered in 0.4182 seconds
46 querie(s) executed