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Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Which Young Players Should Be Next To Sign Long-Term Deals?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Eight years, $174 million
Vladito is making nearly $8 million this year and not in a family hurting for financial resources, so he has a reasonable risk profile to try to wait out free agency and grab a monster deal then. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays shouldn’t at least try; it will be a shame if his stay in Toronto is already half over.

While Guerrero’s offensive numbers have come back down since last year’s Triple Crown run, the disappearance of run scoring around the league makes the drop look far more significant than it actually is. In rest-of-career value, ZiPS has him fourth in baseball among hitters, and none of the top three are gettable….

Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners: Six years, $103 million
Remember when some people were actually worried about him? Seattle’s patience with Jarred Kelenic hasn’t yet paid off, but the team’s aggression in putting Rodríguez on the roster appears to be a bonanza. The first week or so was rough, but since that first multi-hit game, he’s been one of the hottest players in baseball, hitting .330/.385/.466 over 24 games. Not bad for a guy who has played all of six weeks of Double-A ball.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 18, 2022 at 10:40 AM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: andres gimenez, dylan cease, julio rodriguez, shane mcclanahan, tyler stephenson, vladimir guerrero jr., yordan alvarez

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   1. John Northey Posted: May 18, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6077353)
As a Jays fan I'd LOVE it if Vlad's agent is bad enough to accept an 8/$174 deal. That would be fantastic for the Jays. Same with Bo Bichette, I'd be very, very happy for the Jays to sign either to that deal.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 18, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6077355)
If I were a young star like Guerrero, I think I'd look to securitize 30% or so of my future earning. Put $100M in the bank, and then I get to decide where I want to play. No chance in getting tethered to a corpse of a franchise like happened to Arenado.
   3. bookbook Posted: May 18, 2022 at 03:43 PM (#6077359)
I don’t think either side wants the 6-year, $103 million for Julio. No free agent years bought out for Seattle, not enough $ for Julio.

Maybe 9 years, $190m?
   4. Walt Davis Posted: May 18, 2022 at 04:31 PM (#6077367)
Jays have 3 more years of control ... those years will likely cost at least $50 M, maybe as much as $65 M. So this is suggesting 5 FA years for a price of (at most) $125 M. I don't see Vlad taking that offer in his cirumstances.

I don't know nothing about Julio Rodriguez but Luis Robert only got 6/$50 and that was expensive by brand new player standards. Nobody makes $100 M in arb -- even Soto will top out around $80-85. Rodriguez should take that deal in a second. The only attraction in a 6-year deal for Seattle would be to reduce the arb costs and gain cost certainty. Now if the notion is that 6 years includes the first FA year (Seattle god love them did not play service time games with him ... yet) and Seattle gets a couple of options ... well $100 is still too high but the options could make it well worth it. After his first not full season, Acuna got 8/$100 and Atlanta holds 2 options at $17.

I know 6/$100 sounds cheap and, assuming he's real good, is obviously a great bargain vs having to buy all that WAR on the FA market. But 6/$100 for Rodriguez would be projecting him to be a lot better than Robert, at least as good as Acuna and maybe even needing to be as good as Soto to be "market value" for players still under team control.

Juan Soto was a super-2 and got $8.5; this year he's at $17. He'll likely get $55-60 in the next two years. Correa made just $25 M in 3 arb years; Seager $25 in 3; Bryant $62 in 4; Judge <$40 in 3 years.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: May 18, 2022 at 05:55 PM (#6077382)
It was a long time ago now but even Trout only got $42 in his 3 arb years as part of 6/$144 that bought out those 3 years and 3 FA years. The Angels were able to hold off on that offer until he had 2+ seasons and nearly 20 WAR under his belt. And I should add that the White Sox have 2/$40 in options on Robert so 8/$90 signed in 2020.

I'm surprised Dan would put Rodriguez at 6/$100, it's way overpriced.

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