5 for $75 for Benintendi vs 8 for $160 for Nimmo.

Who ya got?

He had 140 hits, total, in 2022, and I doubt that was second in the league.

He had 140 hits, total, in 2022, and I doubt that was second in the league.

I think all those stats carry through the through his first 93 games qualifier. i.e. he had a good half-season.

Benintendi is certainly cheap, but he's just so average. I don't really see any upside. if you're a contender, you're always going to wish you had someone better. Can't see locking yourself into him for 5 years.

Seems like an overpay but maybe 5 / $75 is reasonable for a good but not particular great hitting outfielder.

I'd rather have neither of them at those prices (Nimmo only because of health concerns, his deal is OK if you can assume you get even 3 150 game seasons out of him in the contract and they're soon, rather than when he's declined).

This seems like an overpay for Benintendi. Just sign Conforto to a 1-year deal if you need a guy right now and wait for better options over the next few years.

5 for $75 for Benintendi vs 8 for $160 for Nimmo.

Who ya got?

Throw Yoshida into the debate too:

5 years/$90 mil

He's better than I thought he was when looking at the stats. I guess this helps fill a bunch of needs: lefty, OF, good defense.

This is the most expensive player contract given out in White Sox history.

I'm just wondering WITH the Yankees' starting LF next year is going to be. I doubt if whoever it is will be an improvement over Benintendi.

That this signing makes me relieved that the plan isn't to make Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, or Eloy Jiménez stand in left field on a regular basis indicates what kind of organization Jerry Reinsdorf runs. (The kind that once made Carlton Fisk stand in left field.)

I'm just wondering WITH the Yankees' starting LF next year is going to be. I doubt if whoever it is will be an improvement over Benintendi.

Probably one of the young IFs. Whoever it is, he won't cost $24M (Benintendi's salary plus the luxury tax) and will probably be like 0.5 WAR worse.

Conforto or Brantley can probably replicate Benintendi for 2023 on a 1 or 2 year deal at an equal or lower AAV.

I'm just curious how the hamate injury will affect him. I recall that sapping power, and granted his game last year wasn't based on that.

But you'd think if it saps power, it would also affect ability to hit the ball hard, and that might make it more difficult to maintain a high BA.

The Yankees could have The Martian (Jasson Dominguez) & The Left-Handed Aaron Judge (Spencer Jones) in the outfield in a year or two, but right now they’re a bit short of MLB-ready outfield prospects. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera & Estevan Florial would seem to be the current LF possibilities on the 40-man roster, not counting Stanton who should probably be limited to DH to keep him healthy while better defenders patrol LF.

Probably one of the young IFs. Whoever it is, he won't cost $24M (Benintendi's salary plus the luxury tax) and will probably be like 0.5 WAR worse.

I dunno. It's nice to save the money, but a healthy Benintendi is a very good all-around player who's capable of producing 4 or 5 WAR. I can't see any alternative with that sort of upside.

This is either 2 years longer or at least $18 M more than I'd have guessed. But I probably under-rate him and it's ages 28-32 so there's no reason to think he can't keep being a 2-2.5 WAR OF. Just seems an odd guy to tie up for 5 years. Others from last year: Schwarber 4/$79 and Castellanos 5/$100. Nobody wants Castellanos right now of course. Schwarber vs Benintendi is about as classic a "big bat" vs "all-arounder" comparison as you can get.

EDIT: In the abstract I'll take Nimmo. I'm highly confident he'll out-WAR Benintendi although he might not out-WAR/$ him (how do you like that verb English mavens?). But really he's the better hitter and the better defender. But if Robert is healthy (I just jinxed him) I can see the Sox don't need Nimmo's CF ability so Benintendi is a more obvious fit without putting $160 M on the line.

I was thinking Thomas's long buyout must have topped $75 M (but not this AAV) but man that was a long time ago. His last season was 15 years ago now. That was such a weird contract I don't know how it was valued.

When Thomas first agreed to his contract in 1997, the guaranteed amount of the first four years averaged $7,756,750, the 10th-highest average salary in baseball

Any White Sox free agent signing will hit .230/.320/.350. Might as well lock that up for five years at once instead of dooming four other guys.

Not sure what the $/WAR average is these days but $15M/year for a 2.5-3 WAR 28-year-old seems like a bargain to me.

.I think all those stats carry through the through his first 93 games qualifier. i.e. he had a good half-season.

Yes.

I wonder what would have happened if Benintendi had not been traded after that terrible (albeit brief) 2020 season. Boston clearly traded low on him to get out of paying him ~$8m in arbitration money, but got very, very little back, in hindsight: Josh Winckowski, Franchy Cordero, and a few other minor-leaguers.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox were platooning Christian Arroyo and Jackie Bradley Jr to open the 2022 season, and Average Alex Verdugo was the team's best outfielder in 2022. And Schwarber is hitting 46 bombs for the Phillies because we thought he wasn't worth 4/$79m. Good times.

My guess is Aaron Hicks gets first crack at left for the Yankees. Then the kids, and if they don’t have a solution by mid season they’ll get the next Benintendi (decent player in last year of contract) in a trade.

I feel like the narrative on Benintendi was poisoned in Boston due to the hype around him. Because he was the 7th pick in a loaded draft people assumed he had a high ceiling. But he was pretty much a finished product on arrival, he just doesn't have the body type for 25 HR seasons, and he was never going to be a great defensive CF. So when he slumped it was a bit more panic than needed. I always felt if he was a 15th round pick out of North Dakota he would've been better off.

5 for $75 for Benintendi vs 8 for $160 for Nimmo.

Who ya got?

Nimmo. Benintendi is a year younger, and his contract is shorter, but Nimmo is the better hitter, consistently posting xwOBAs a good bit higher than Benintendi. 8 years is a long time, and Nimmo carries injury risk, but the ceiling is higher IMO.

Not sure what the $/WAR average is these days but $15M/year for a 2.5-3 WAR 28-year-old seems like a bargain to me.

Yes and no. The lower-end of the market is almost always "underpaid" by $/WAR. Too much supply maybe? They also aren't usually signed for 5 years. It's quite possible that Benintendi got an offer like 3/$54, 3/$57 but preferred the security of 5/$75. And finally -- hitters get paid, all-around WAR tends not to get paid as well, presumably because hitting ages fairly well/predictably.

Apparently ZiPS now guesstimates $ value as $5.3 for the first WAR and $8.3 for each WAR after that. Certainly the 1-WAR end of the market doesn't command $8-9 M very often so Dan seems closer to reality on this one. If Benintendi is a 2.5 WAR player that works out to about $17.7 ... which gets us back to questions like did he prefer the security of 5/$75 or maybe that he projects as 2.5 now but is expected to decline slightly as he ages. Anyway, using Dan's formula, the Sox are paying for about 11 WAR over 5 years -- sounds close enough to me.

(Note, those might be Dan's estimates for 2022 not 2023; or he might need to adjust them if 2023 has seen a big jump which it seems to have -- i.e. don't blame Dan yet if those are way off, blame me for not caring enough to dig out the detail.)

There's a huge disconnect between Benintendi's OAA (-9 runs) this season vs DRS. Any ideas on that?

He seems average in arm and holding runners so if you buy into the -9 runs in range he's more like a 2 WAR player than a 3 WAR. And over 5 years I project 8 WAR using the conservative age-distribution method I suggested in the Correa thread.