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Wednesday, February 20, 2019

White Sox boss on Manny Machado signing with Padres: ‘We thought we were the high offer’

Manny Machado isn’t going to Chicago after all. The Chicago White Sox, who signed Machado’s brother-in-law Yonder Alonso this offseason and added his friend Jon Jay, lost out to the San Diego Padres, who agreed to a 10-year, $300 million deal Tuesday with the star free agent.

Kenny Williams, the White Sox’s executive vice president, expressed surprise that they were beat out for Machado. He told reporters at White Sox camp they thought they had the highest offer.

Turns out they didn’t, especially when you consider this tidbit: They weren’t willing to go up to $300 million.

The level of management competence we’ve grown to expect from Kenny Williams!

 

QLE Posted: February 20, 2019 at 04:17 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: kenny williams, outbid, white sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. asinwreck Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5816821)
"We thought everyone else was playing by our self-imposed rules."
   2. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5816823)
"He gone."
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:28 PM (#5816824)
"Alonso, Jay Among Sox' First Spring Roster Cuts"
   4. DCA Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5816831)
If the Sox, as reported, had offered 8/$250, that could be considered a higher offer. It's more per year, and it pays out sooner.
   5. DCA Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5816836)
To follow up on #4, assuming for ease of analysis that both the White Sox rejected offer and the Padres accepted offer paid at a constant rate ($31.25m or $30m per year, respectively) and using a discount rate of 5 percent:

8/$250m is $212m in present value; 10/$300m is $243 in present value. Should Machado be able to get a 2/$47 contract (in 2027 dollars, equivalent to 2/$32 in 2019 dollars), that would bring the 10 year payoff to exactly equal in value.
   6. RoyalFlush Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5816838)
If the Sox, as reported, had offered 8/$250, that could be considered a higher offer. It's more per year, and it pays out sooner.


It may be considered the "better" offer by some (not sure who) - not sure how it's ever considered a "higher" offer.
   7. DCA Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5816839)
Higher based on expected 10 year payout.

High is also generally a synonym for "best" in an auction market. I mean, technically 1/$200 is also less than 10/$300 but there's little doubt that you'll get far more money signing a the former contract than the latter.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5816841)
Should Machado be able to get a 2/$47 contract


Does that seem likely at age 34-35?
   9. DCA Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5816846)
Also, Machado should fire his agent if Kenny Williams really didn't know that the White Sox weren't the high bidders (by total value). That's malpractice.
   10. DCA Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5816850)
That's the same contract Michael Brantley got (age 32-33). Andrew McCutchen got 3 years at the same AAV (age 32-34). Donaldson got one year at way more $ per year (age 33).

It's a risk, of course, but I think it's more likely Machado is able to beat those contract offers at age 34-35 than fall short. McCutchen may be particularly instructive, as he has been slightly below average on aggregate the last three years (mostly due to 2016, he's been slightly positive for the last two) and still got a pretty nice deal because of early career excellence.
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5816851)
Also, Machado should fire his agent if Kenny Williams really didn't know that the White Sox weren't the high bidders (by total value). That's malpractice.
It's late February - I'm guessing the agent either wrangled as much out of the White Sox as possible, or knew that they weren't going to add enough to make it more attractive than going to the Padres.
   12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5816854)
Also, Machado should fire his agent if Kenny Williams really didn't know that the White Sox weren't the high bidders (by total value). That's malpractice.

Why would Kenny Williams believe some player's agent?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5816866)
I can certainly understand that Machado would prefer to have the guaranteed money rather than take the risk in his age 34 and 35 season that he won't get that kind of deal.
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5816878)
"We thought we were the high offer because we were high when we made it!"
   15. Zonk Will Be Reinstated in August Posted: February 20, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5816895)
It's late February - I'm guessing the agent either wrangled as much out of the White Sox as possible, or knew that they weren't going to add enough to make it more attractive than going to the Padres.


Or told them point blank he had a 10/300 offer and they didn't believe him....
   16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 20, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5816905)
He probably told them he had a 12/500 offer and they didn't believe him.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: February 20, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5816917)
8/$250 vs 10/$300 depends on the deferment schedule. Cot's doesn't have any details yet (slow for them) but let's try some sceanrios.

8/$250 -- I'll assume that's 3 at $30 and 5 at $32. That's a NPV (5$) of $201. That's also minimal deferment. It's possible payments could be brought forward a little via a signing bonus. It obviously could be substantially deferred.

So what would we have to do to 10/$300 to get it substantially below $201 ... probably a lot. Even if we go to a Natsian extreme of paying out $300 M in 15 equal annual chunks, the NPV comes to $207. I can't imagine that the Padres' offer is deferred substantially more than that. In that sceanrio though, Machado probably turns them down figuring he can easily beat that $6 -- easily worth the risk. So obviously there's a lower-level of deferment where Mahado would still go for the non-deferred 8/$250. For example 10/$250 with 5/$50 deferment puts the NPV at about $220 ... probably somewhere between those two is where it's not worth taking the chance.

But that assumes the White Sox offer wasn't deferred much at all which I find unlikely. It also may have been that the Sox weren't willing to give the opt-out -- not worth heaps usually but enough to tilt the deal if the decision was close. Then of course other factors like San Diego is a pretty lovely spot year-round vs. the cold April/Sept (and god forbid Oct) in Chicago along with its lovely hot, humid summers.

(Agreed, if still healthy and reasonably productive, Machado could probably get the 2029-30 equivalent of 2/$32 or more suggested above ... but that's far from certain. Better $32 M in 2019 $ in hand IMO. And with a NTC, you still get to decide where you might play those last 2-3 years if somebody wants you and the Padres stink.)

   18. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: February 20, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5816922)
Also, Machado should fire his agent if Kenny Williams really didn't know that the White Sox weren't the high bidders (by total value). That's malpractice.

If you're going to take Kenny's asssaving bullshit at face value...well, you need to fire your agent.
   19. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: February 20, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5816923)
Cot's doesn't have any details yet (slow for them) but let's try some sceanrios.

Supposedly there's no deferred money at all in the Padres deal.
   20. bfan Posted: February 20, 2019 at 05:10 PM (#5816936)
There is another way to look at this, to make the white sox offer to be better. I assume both contracts give him generational wealth (not just quitting money); his kids and his kids' kids will not have to work a day in their life, if there is no Nicolas Cage level stupid spending. Maybe Machado only wants to work for 8 more years, not 10 years, so that the extra money (however discounted) for 2 extra years work is not worth it to him (or, when he gets to the rip old age of 34, he can decide then whether he wants to put in another year or 2 of work). In this scenario, money in his age 35 and 36 seasons is just monopoly money, because he can never spend that money and would rather spend those years as leisure time instead of labor time.
   21. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: February 20, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5816940)
Glad to see Machado's staying out of the AL Central, anyway. (Of course, my team's idea of a big free-agent signing is some stiff with a 80 OPS+ last year. Great.)

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