I missed this when first posted. Beltre is easy for me, Mauer is pretty easy but not nearly as much of a lock for me (the short career as a part time first baseman weakens his case--but the peak is pretty strong and it's still basically 1000 games as an elite offensive catcher and plus defensive one)

The holdovers are the same story roid or other issues, or just gathering of momentum.

There are at least 13 guys here I could be convinced to vote for. Am I just a "big Hall" guy or are we back to the back ol' days of having an overloaded ballot?

I think I'm a small hall guy and I have Beltran, Beltre, Utley, Mauer, A-Rod in for sure and I'd have to think about ManRam, Sheffield, Helton, and Jones.

There are at least 13 guys here I could be convinced to vote for. Am I just a "big Hall" guy or are we back to the back ol' days of having an overloaded ballot?

I am the same way, I have 4 I considered pretty easy choices (Arod, Beltre, Beltran, and Manny) Mauer is right on that line for me also, I would vote for him, but I see the negatives of his case that I don't think he's what I would call a lock for me. But outside of those five, you still have strong cases for Utley, Andruw, Helton, Sheffield, Pettitte, Abreu, Colon, Buehrle, And then you have the writers pet projects with Wagner and Vizquel. It's not a top heavy ballot except of course Arod, but it's a strong ballot.

Regarding the newcomers, I would vote for Beltré (who should be a shoo-in), Mauer and Utley.

Of the holdovers, I'm of the "let's-move-the-line-as-quickly-as-possible" variety, so I would vote for Helton (6th year on the ballot), Wagner (9th year on the ballot), Andruw Jones (7th year on the ballot), Carlos Beltrán (2nd year on the ballot) and A-Rod (3rd year on the ballot).

That's an 8-player ballot, and I could be convinced on Sheffield and Manny Ramírez.

As I have joined the "I don't care about PED use by players since the Hall has inducted the commissioner and managers who benefited from that use, too" camp, I see eight easy calls for me: The No Brainer (Beltre), The Roid Guys (A-Rod, Manny), The Peak Guys (Mauer, Utley, A. Jones), and the Unlikeable Guys (Sheffield, Beltran). As I believe that while I might think a borderline candidate is not worthy of induction, I recognize I could be wrong and would have room on my ballot to include Helton and Abreu.

It's not a bad ballot- Shields and Reyes are the two weakest of the newcomers to me, and Reyes would probably get some votes if not for the domestic violence thing...

I guess my time not following the contemporary game is starting to affect my HoF opinions too. I've always thought myself as somewhat of a large hall guy (not "Jack Morris" large, but my mental ballots 5-10+ years ago were generally 8-10 names and some would have been larger if not for the voting limit). Beltre is the only obvious yes for me. I've generally been steroids-agnostic on Hall voting and that would put Ramirez, A. Rodriguez, and Sheffield on my ballot too if I didn't defer to the de facto standards the BBWAA has clearly enacted. Aside from that, I'd listen to cases for Beltran, Jones, and maybe Mauer, but just not seeing it for anyone else.

There are at least 13 guys here I could be convinced to vote for. Am I just a "big Hall" guy or are we back to the back ol' days of having an overloaded ballot?

To get to 13, I think you have be to be a no PED, moral turpitude, relief pitcher, or DH penalty, BIG HALL guy.

In HoF ballot terms, it's the equivalent of one of those lineups with no stars but nobody with an OPS+ worse than 102. Or if you will, probably 12-15 guys who wouuld be first-ballot inductees on a HOVG ballot. It's an uninspiring list for sure -- even a no-brainer like Beltre, will you (are you?) tellig your grandkids about him? Although he surely deserved some, Beltre didn't make a single AS team in his 20s. No MVP, no rings. Beltre is better but it's still a Palmmeiro resume.

Still, Beltre is an easy yes. The peak-only guys are the ones I struggle with -- their peaks aren't that incredible. Even when Mauer was a C, he was starting only 110-120 games back there. He played at an HoF level ... for 1000 games, 4450 PA. But Ernie Banks also played at an HoF-level (and then some) for 1000 games and 4500 PA and I'm not taking him out. And Banks is not exactly the threshold. But boy it would have been nice if Mauer could have added a Votto/Utley season or two at 1B.

Utley is in pretty much the same spot as Mauer. The voters' track record at 2B and C is spotty -- Sandberg, Alomar, Biggio all had to wait a bit and of course Grich and Whitaker didnj't make it (or come close). The WAR7 is really good although maybe a bit too reliant on defensive ratings for us to have much confidence in those 3-4 WAR differences. But as a guy who supported Larry Walker, would be fine with Dick Allen, etc. I have no good reason not to unenthusiastically tick a box for Utley.

But outside of those five, you still have strong cases for Utley, Andruw, Helton, Sheffield, Pettitte, Abreu, Colon, Buehrle, And then you have the writers pet projects with Wagner and Vizquel. It's not a top heavy ballot except of course Arod, but it's a strong ballot.

Would love to understand the reasoning for Colon having a strong case but not Wright. Or was the latter just an oversight on your list?

Would love to understand the reasoning for Colon having a strong case but not Wright. Or was the latter just an oversight on your list?

Colon was a Cy Young quality pitcher at his peak, Wright at his peak was a down ballot MVP pick. I don't even think they are comparable. (and I'm a fan of longevity and health as I give bonus value to complete seasons played)

edit: that first part overstates how good Colon was, but I do feel war underrates starting pitchers over the last 20 or so years.

Anyway, it's a weird ballot. For me, it can be broken into a few different groups:

Definite yes: Beltre, Beltran
Definite yes if not for PEDs: Manny, A-Rod, Sheffield
Borderline, but yes: Abreu, Buehrle, Helton, Jones, Mauer, Utley
Borderline, but yes if not for PEDs: Pettitte
Borderline, but no: Wright, Vizquel, Holliday, Gonzalez, Rollins (these are all guys I could see being elected by a VC at some point, and it wouldn't bother me that much)
Just no: K-Rod, Bautista, Shields, Martinez, Phillips, Reyes, Colon

Colon was a Cy Young quality pitcher at his peak, Wright at his peak was a down ballot MVP pick. I don't even think they are comparable. (and I'm a fan of longevity and health as I give bonus value to complete seasons played)

I think the opposite is true. Wright leads in WAA, 29 to 16 - he was clearly the higher peak player. Colon at his peak was a 5-WAR player who won one clearly undeserved Cy Young Award and never otherwise came close. Wright has three seasons more valuable than Colon's best, where he was a legitimately elite player (two top-3 WAR finishes). He was also higher peak than Buehrle, or Abreu but doesn't quite have their career value.

EDIT: Not to derail the conversation, since I don't think either guy is deserving or has much chance of being elected.

Eight of the players on the 2024 ballot are in the Hall of Merit, with three more soon to be. All of those 11 are ranked in the top 280 in the BBF Ranking Game. Here's a list of those with their all-time ranking and the year they were elected to the HoM:

Rank HoM
16 2022 Alex Rodriguez
82 2017 Manny Ramirez
88 (2024) Adrian Beltre
132 2023 Carlos Beltran
159 2016 Gary Sheffield
164 (2024) Chase Utley
177 2020 Andruw Jones
184 (2024) Joe Mauer
222 2020 Todd Helton
256 2022 Bobby Abreu
280 2022 Andy Pettitte

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era, I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts. That is how strongly I feel about that. Add in that I'm a fan of health and longevity and it's easy for me to think of Colon as being in the conversation while thinking that Wright is not.

As you pointed out, neither is going to make it, but to me there is a line between the two. I think if we stick to the war standards of pitchers from 30 years ago, starting pitchers are pretty much going to be eliminated from consideration. In some respects giving them the catcher bonus that I give to catchers.

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era, I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts. That is how strongly I feel about that. Add in that I'm a fan of health and longevity and it's easy for me to think of Colon as being in the conversation while thinking that Wright is not.

I just think you're overvaluing Colon, so we can leave Wright out of the conversation. You're evaluating a guy who peaked 20 years ago by today's usage standards. Colon didn't lead the league in innings every year; he only had four top-10 IP finishes. It was possible for pitchers to accumulate high WAR totals when Colon pitched; but he didn't really do so. He had a decent number of contemporaries who made the HOF, will make it, or were more deserving than him but won't get in, so I don't think his era will be underrepresented in the Hall - but maybe I'm not thinking about it properly.

(Buehrle and Pettitte both finished with at least 10 more career WAR than him in about the same number of innings, but probably won't get in. Tim Hudson finished with more WAR in slightly fewer innings but was off the ballot after two years. Moyer was his closest comp and was one-and-done.)

I think the interesting thing about this ballot is that the weakest player on it is probably better than the weakest player on any previous ballot by miles. There is no Heath Bell or Matt Stairs on this ballot. Apart from two closers with massive saves totals, you have Victor Martinez or Brandon Phillips or James Shields bringing up the rear, any of whom is probably about twice as good as the worst player on a ballot normally is.

There are 8 players here I would definitely vote for, 4 more I'd strongly consider, and 2 or 3 more that wouldn't be embarrassments. Well, none of them would be embarrassments by the standards the various voting bodies have set recently. Or, none of them would be greater embarrassments, at least.

10 man ballot: Beltre, Mauer, Utley, Beltran, Andruw, Helton, Wagner, Abreu, Buehrle, A-Rod.

On an unlimited ballot, add Manny, maybe Pettitte.

Colon was a Cy Young quality pitcher at his peak, Wright at his peak was a down ballot MVP pick. I don't even think they are comparable.

Wright finished second in the NL in bWAR in 2007, and keeping him out of first relies on believing in Pujols having a +31 fielding season at 1B. (Pujols was a great first baseman, but his next-highest score is +18.)

Colon never finished higher than 5th in his league in pitching bWAR (I don't know if there's an easy way to check fWAR leaderboards, but in all of the seasons in which he got Cy votes his ERA was significantly lower than his FIP). Even evaluated among his contemporaries he doesn't particularly stand out.

I'll look at the ballot in more detail when the mock voting thread is posted, but I'm probably going to fill mine again.

Mauer is pretty easy but not nearly as much of a lock for me (the short career as a part time first baseman weakens his case--but the peak is pretty strong and it's still basically 1000 games as an elite offensive catcher and plus defensive one)

Mauer is an interesting case, but it's not 1000 games as an elite offensive catcher. He only has 885 starts at catcher, and 888 at 1B/DH, so now he's a 50/50 player, like Banks, as Walt mentioned above. Here are the MLB catchers by descending WAR with fewer than 1,900 career games, at least 50% at catcher who are in the HOF: Dickey, Cochrane, Bresnahan, Campenella, Lombardi, Schalk, Farrell. Granted his peak is really special and he's unique with those batting titles as a catcher, but then there's nothing special after he moves off the position. I'm not sure what to do with him. I think Walt's analogy of Banks is incredibly apt, but does it mean Mauer is above the line? I don't know.

The No Brainer (Beltre), The Roid Guys (A-Rod, Manny), The Peak Guys (Mauer, Utley, A. Jones), and the Unlikeable Guys (Sheffield, Beltran). As I believe that while I might think a borderline candidate is not worthy of induction, I recognize I could be wrong and would have room on my ballot to include Helton and Abreu.

Hmmm, could you define peak? Cuz Helton from 2000-2005 has an OPS+ of 158, that's 6 seasons, 933 games, 4,074 PA's, an average of 156 games & 679 PA's, with a low of 144 in 626 PA's. In WAR terms he has 42 across those 6 seasons, with 3 of those being in the MVP range that B-R sets at 8 WAR for a season. If you use WAR7, his peak is as good as McCovey, Cabrera, and Thomas. I prefer top 5 seasons for peak, which gives him the best peak of any HOF 1B whose career was after 1950 (I look at 19th C. players in one category, and pre 1950 in another, with post 1950 as the third category as far as the HOF goes). I also look at 10 years of WAR as a prime, and by that measure he's behind only Thomas and Bagwell. Those are nonconsecutive seasons as JAWS uses.

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era

Is there anybody but you in this camp?

I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts.

That is nuts.

Sure. I can see the argument that Helton had a HOF peak- I just think his overall career falls a bit short of my HOF standard. It’s possible to me for that to happen- I think the same about David Wright. For peak to matter to me, it has to be in context of the player’s overall HOF case. As I am a WAR refugee, I don’t care what WAR, WAR7, WAA, JAWS, or whatever other system says. Don’t get me wrong- I loved Todd Helton as a player. He’s one of my all-time favorites, I overspent more than once to have him on my fantasy baseball team, and am rooting for him to make it into Cooperstown. To me he falls just on the short side of my borderline but, as I said, I could be wrong on that so I would vote for him if I had room on a HOF ballot.

And please don’t take this as bashing any of you who prefer using WAR, WAR7, WAA, JAWS, Or any other system in forming your opinions. To each his own, and I do enjoy reading all of the diverse views on the Hall here at BBTF.

If Mauer had never come back from his August 2013 concussion I really think he would have gotten extra credit over what might have been and nobody would have even questioned voting him into the HOF because of his peak. The Koufax of catchers

But because the guy gutted it out for years trying to play instead voters are going to penalize him. An unreal level of stupid.

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era

Is there anybody but you in this camp?

I think there's at least an argument to be made for comparing players against their direct contemporaries, because there are factors that make it easier to accumulate WAR in some eras than others. The fact that MLB saw 16 8-bWAR seasons between 1969-73 after the league had expanded by 50% in a decade, and only 6 seasons of similar quality in the 10 years immediately before expansion ('51-'60) seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

To take the more recent example, there were 10 8-WAR seasons from 1998-2002, compared to 7 from 2013-23 (adding the extra year beyond the decade mark for obvious reasons).

An initial thought

A-Rod, Beltre, Beltran, Helton, Jones, Manny, and Sheffield.

As I've said before in one of the catcher threads, Mauer is the very definition of my in-out line. While a Guardian fan, I always rooted for Mauer because I liked his story so I will probably vote for him on my fake HOF ballot, but on a real ballot I would likely flip a coin.

I'm a non-PED guy and I have Beltran, beltre, Buehrle, Jones, Sheffield, Vizquel . I wouldn't vote for beltre on the first ballot. I'm close on Helton and mauer. I'd like to vote for Bartolo and if anyone can make his PED thing immaterial (I go there with Sheffield), I'd vote for him

The difficulty I have with Maurer is, even forgetting the 5 years he wasn't a catcher at all, (which represented a third of his career) he still played a lot of games at positions other than C.

Even his MVP year, he had 28 starts at DH. That's half as many as Ivan Rodriguez had in 21 years. Victor Martinez had 34 total from 2002-2010. Posada had 34 total from 1998-2007.

So I feel like even a peak argument gives him value at C he didn't actually accrue there.

In his prime Mauer was catching a pretty typical full-time load. In that MVP year he ranked 11th in innings at catcher, and that's between seasons ranking 4th and 7th. Sure he DHed a lot, but that's because it was worth keeping him in the lineup as much as possible.

If Mauer had never come back from his August 2013 concussion I really think he would have gotten extra credit over what might have been and nobody would have even questioned voting him into the HOF because of his peak. The Koufax of catchers

A huge part of Koufax's legacy is the fact that he pitched for three WS winners, posted an ERA of 0.95, and was WS MVP twice. He clinched a series with a Game 7 shutout on two days rest.

Mauer's teams lost all 10 postseason games he played in, and in those 10 games, he had a .641 OPS scored exactly 1 run and drove in exactly 1. He was a lousy postseason player on a franchise whose postseason failures became a joke.

Being "Koufax but with a bad postseason legacy instead of an all-time great one" is a far cry from being Koufax.

Sure he DHed a lot, but that's because it was worth keeping him in the lineup as much as possible.

You can use whatever reason you want. Doesn't change that, to me, because he was frequently DHing, he shouldn't necessarily get full credit at C for those seasons.

Koufax also pitched more than 20 percent of the Dodgers' entire regular-season IP total in each of his 3 best seasons (while going 78-22 with 74 CG including 24 ShO in those three seasons), and even more in the World Series.

Now, I'm not a huge Koufax lover - he had only 6 significant seasons, yet he gets touted as if he's in the inner, innermost circles.

But even with Mauer as a catcher winning batting titles, I don't see him as worth of the title "the Koufax of catchers."

I'm a non-PED guy and I have Beltran, beltre, Buehrle, helton, Sheffield, Vizquel . I wouldn't vote for beltre on the first ballot. I'm close on jones and mauer. I'd like to vote for Bartolo and if anyone can make his PED thing immaterial (I go there with Sheffield), I'd vote for him

I struggle with anyone who's case revolves around defensive stays (utley ) but I'm a big fan of Vizquel simply on the basis of sustained excellence over a lot period of time. Jones, I'm in the same boat but he's got a pretty good offensive case. Bottom line is he didn't do it long enough.

Beltran - the Astros cheating scandal has me concerned but the way that team keeps winning and the core players keep playing has led me to view it as a negative but not disqualifying. Beltran - his HOF career was on the books. He lost a sweet managerial role so I'm ok not using the death penalty. Plus he won the Clemente award

Sheffield is such an awesome offensive player, he's just hard to ignore.

Buerhle. I saw the Hudson comment. Probably should be in too but it won't stop me voting for Mark. His case will look better every year

I started drafting my note above so you can see how my drafting and thinking process works - strangely

You can use whatever reason you want. Doesn't change that, to me, because he was frequently DHing, he shouldn't necessarily get full credit at C for those seasons.

Do you also discount Ohtani's pitching because he DHs on his days off? Mauer was catching a full load in his best years, and tagging on additional PAs as a DH, he wasn't Gene Tenace or anything like that.

If mauer is in, Munson is in right ?

Do you also discount Ohtani's pitching because he DHs on his days off? Mauer was catching a full load in his best years, and tagging on additional PAs as a DH, he wasn't Gene Tenace or anything like that.

Ohtani's hitting on days he doesn't pitch don't add to his stats as a pitcher, so...no?

Full loads? Mauer had 5 seasons where he caught even 100 games. That's nothing.

Mauer is an interesting case, but it's not 1000 games as an elite offensive catcher.

I listed 1000 for a couple of reasons, one rounding up(921 games as catcher), two in his first few seasons he didn't play first at all, he was catcher DH, so to me he's still a catcher then just getting rest. I'm fine with giving him catcher playing time credit in those years, once he started putting up 20+ games at first base, I think of him as a multi-position player.

re: Mauer

Hasn't it been illustrated that there are fewer full time catchers than there used to be? If catchers really do catch less nowadays, then the voters are going to have to adjust for that going forward, same as they will with starting pitchers.

If Mauer isn't a HOFer, than I'm not sure there's going to be another HOF worthy catcher for a long time. He's better than Posey, Molina, Perez, Realmuto, etc. The days of no doubt HOF career backstops like Fisk, Carter, Rodriguez, and Piazza may be over. Now you get to pick between short but dominant peaks (Mauer, Posey), or long careers without much true dominance (Molina).

If mauer is in, Munson is in right ?

Eh, not really. Posey is a much better Munson comp. And even so, comparing guys hitting the ballot now with someone who debuted over 40 years ago isn't very useful. Voting patterns have changed drastically since then.

Is there anybody but you in this camp?

I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts.

That is nuts.

Note, I'm not saying that they are equivalent value to that type of player, but when looking at the hof case for a pitcher and comparing across eras, I'm saying his performance in this era is equivalent relative to his peers as that addition. So a 50 war modern day pitcher(who consistently ranked high in innings pitched and games started) is probably ranked equivalent to a 60 war pitcher from the 70's (assuming that they both are equal in relative performance)

edit: and note for this ballot, I haven't studied Colon or anyone that much yet, just going on first impressions when I put out my initial comments, as I know that there are even people pushing for Torii Hunter for the hof.

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era, I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts. That is how strongly I feel about that. Add in that I'm a fan of health and longevity and it's easy for me to think of Colon as being in the conversation while thinking that Wright is not.

Sounds like you're adjusting for modern workloads, which IMO is jumping the gun by about a dozen years with regards to Colon (who debuted in 1997). Pitchers who debuted from the late 90's to the late 2000's were still capable of tossing 220-250 innings per season and racking up "traditional" HOF career totals (i.e. 200+ wins and 3000+ IP). It's not until we start evaluating the hurlers who debuted post 2010 that we're really going to have to start making adjustments.

Colon doesn't really stand out from his contemporaries from a value standpoint. Starting a few years earlier to capture his true peers - and continuing all the way through the 2000's debuts - lots of pitchers were able to put up comparable or superior value, playing under the same era related handicaps that Big Sexy was. Obviously some of these are peak guys with very different career shapes, but still...(debut year in parenthesis):

Andy Pettitte (1995) - 256 wins, 3316 IP, 60.2 WAR

Bartolo Colon (1997) - 247 wins. 3461 IP, 46.2 WAR

Roy Halladay (1998) - 203 wins, 2749 IP, 64.2 WAR

Tim Hudson (1999) - 222 wins, 3126 IP, 57.9 WAR

Mark Buehrle (2000) - 214 wins, 3283 IP, 59.1 WAR

Johan Santana (2000) - 139 wins, 2025 IP, 51.7 WAR

Roy Oswalt (2001) - 163 wins, 2245 IP, 50.0 WAR

CC Sabathia (2001) - 251 wins, 3577 IP, 62.3 WAR

Zack Greinke (2004) - 225 wins, 3389 IP, 77.5 WAR

Justin Verlander (2005) - 257 wins, 3325 IP, 80.9 WAR

Felix Hernandez (2005) - 169 wins, 2729 IP, 49.7 WAR

Adam Wainwright (2005) - 200 wins, 2668 IP, 44.9 WAR (was 46.9 before this past season!)

Jon Lester (2006) - 200 wins, 2740 IP, 43.5 WAR

Cole Hamels (2006) - 163 wins, 2698 IP, 59.0 WAR

Clayton Kershaw (2008) - 210 wins, 2712 IP, 79.9 WAR

Max Scherzer (2008) - 214 wins, 2834 IP, 75.0 WAR


There could be more. These are just the ones I remembered to look up. How many of these guys are HOFers? Even counting just the ones that are already in (Halladay) or look like locks to get in (Sabathia, Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer), 6 HOF starting pitchers from a 12 year (or whatever) span doesn't seem like a historically low number; feels like a pretty typical amount, actually (compare that to say, 1971-1983 when the dubious VC pick Jack Morris was the only HOF starter to debut). It's certainly not low enough that we need to start dropping the standards yet, at any rate. And even if you think 6 HOF starters from that span isn't enough, there's still more guys on that list that I'd definitely pick before Colon (Pettitte, Hudson, and Buehrle for sure. Possibly a few of the peak guys)

So a 50 war modern day pitcher(who consistently ranked high in innings pitched and games started) is probably ranked equivalent to a 60 war pitcher from the 70's (assuming that they both are equal in relative performance)

I agree with this in general; I just don't think Colon is a good example of it, since there were lots of pitchers from his own era with more WAR. I suspect it might end up being a good argument for say, Aaron Nola, and almost certainly Gerrit Cole (who could end up amongst the highest WAR totals of his era with "only" 60-ish).

That argument is actually always how I viewed 1970's pitchers. For whatever reason, the conditions of their times allowed them to throw 250-300 innings a year for 25 years (give or take), so even "regular" (i.e. not inner circle) HOFers like Niekro, Perry, and Blyleven were able to put up inner circle WAR totals (90+). By the 1990's, that number had dropped to 80 WAR for the consistent and durable but non inner circle HOF pitchers (Mussina, Glavine). By the 2000's-mid 2010's, it was down to 70 (Greinke without batting credit). And now in the 2020's, IP totals have plummeted so dramatically that even reaching 50 WAR will likely be a rare achievement.

Mauer had 5 seasons where he caught even 100 games. That's nothing.

I’ve noted before that the Hall of Fame is long overdue making a proper positional adjustment for catchers, and I thought Ted Simmons veterans committee election might be the start of that, but it now appears to be just an individual thing. Electing Mauer won’t do much for the long haul catchers who caught well over 100 games per season for a decade or more, and I’m on the fence on his Hall worthiness. The peak is quite impressive, but there’s nothing else. That makes him like a lot of guys whose path to the Hall was derailed by injury. Maybe I’ll withhold my hypothetical ballot for a few years to mull it over.

#41 you could add Pedro to that list (debuted in 1992 but only 6 months older than Pettitte and 18 months older than Colon). They were certainly contemporaries.

And yeah looking at that list, it is interesting that very few of those guys put up comparable innings totals to Colon. The argument for Colon would be that our replacement level for starting pitchers of his era is too high, and there was some added value to his innings eating not captured in how we are calculating WAR today.

The arguments against Colon would be that from that list, there’s at least 3 eligible guys not in the HOF yet with similar inning totals who are clearly better than him (Hudson, Pettitte, Buehrle). And if you start the list a few years earlier there are other guys whose careers overlapped that look very similar (Moyer, Kenny Rogers, probably others). Also that his added innings come mainly from pitching for more seasons, not from greater in-season durability. Also that his added longevity may have been due to PED usage.

I agree with all of the points made against Bartolo Colon being inducted, but c’mon guys- wouldn’t you love to see a plaque in Cooperstown emblazoned with the nickname “Big Sexy”?

Colon has kind of two careers. His contemporaries for the part where he gets most of his value stop in 2005. Then he has a second career where he piles up counting stats and has one or two good years. So everyone up to sabathia feels more like his comp set (add Pedro).

It is the Hall of Fame. If anyone should get extra credit for the "fame" part, it should be him

I think all those guys on the list have good cases. Pettite and colon have PED issues. I like Lester a lot because he played on a lot of winning teams. Wainwright will likely end up with an announcing career and get in via the vets for total contribution.

Hopefully Buerhle gets some traction

Colon stole Johan Santana's Cy Young award but shouldn't steal his spot in the Hall of Fame.

Note: I know that Kershaw, Scherzer, etc aren't really part of Colon's "era"; I included them just to show that it was still possible for pitchers to put up big numbers at least a decade beyond Bartolo's peak. Unlike current pitchers, Big Sexy's career value wasn't hampered by his era much, IMO*

* Unless you're a very big hall guy and believe most of the other pitchers in #41 should get elected too.

#48 - (responding to myself)

Or I suppose if you value quantity over quality. As pointed out above, Colon's wins and IP totals really are quite high for his era. Both are going to finish top 4 amongst the group listed.

Edit: I'm generally a career over peak (fake) voter too, but IMO there still needs to be a baseline level of dominance. No one should get elected simply for showing up for a long time. Colon, Moyer, Vizquel, and even Tommy John are all easy "no's" for me.

So who does everyone think will actually be voted in this year?

For me I think it's

Helton
Beltre
Wagner

I wouldn't be surprised at Sheffield

Next year should get Jones, maybe Beltran, maybe Mauer, suzuki and sabathia

So maybe 8-9 guys in the next two years

It is the Hall of Fame. If anyone should get extra credit for the "fame" part, it should be him

Bartolo Colon????

I wouldn't vote for beltre on the first ballot.

Wow, I thought it was odd Walt was saying people wouldn't be telling their grandkids about Beltre, but this! The best defensive 3B not named Brooks, extraordinary counting stats and longevity, an all time great "old" player (you look at what he did from 31 on), more career WAR than any 3B not named Schmidt or Mathews, as good a WAR7 as Chipper, JAWS equal to Brett, who was playing 1B and DH at the age Beltre was putting up his best seasons.

Sure. I can see the argument that Helton had a HOF peak- I just think his overall career falls a bit short of my HOF standard. It’s possible to me for that to happen- I think the same about David Wright. For peak to matter to me, it has to be in context of the player’s overall HOF case.

Cool, thanks. I still don't understand how you contextualize his career though. If WAR, etc. are out, what are you using to determine a HOF career, peak and prime?

even a no-brainer like Beltre, will you (are you?) telling your grandkids about him?

I laughed because although our granddaughter is only two-and-a-half, when we go outside to play I wear a Beltre 29 hat and she always brings it to me and puts it on my head. So I actually do tell her about Beltre, in her terms. Though I think she prefers Adolis Garcia. Anyway, she likes the Garcia T-shirt I bought her.

I realize that calling Beltre's a "Palmeiro resume" is just shorthand for "career candidate," and Palmeiro had a 72-bWAR career and is hardly a dismissive comp. And Beltre did have numerous unimpressive years in his 20s. But Beltre had a greatly distinctive and charismatic presence. Oddly enough, his defense and his flair at the plate and his general personality are exactly the kinds of things that might overrate Beltre in the "tell your grandkids" department, if one can overrate a 93-bWAR career.

#50 - I think Beltre, Helton, and Wagner are locks, with Mauer being a dark horse 4th candidate. I think he'll get in pretty quick, but I have no idea whether voters see him as a 1st ballot guy or not (see our discussion above).

It would be wild if Gary Sheffield of all people was the one who cracked the PED barrier when Bonds and Clemens couldn't.

(He won't though. I suspect the majority of the writers still withholding votes for him are hardliners that will never change their minds)

#52 - Yeah, that one surprised me too. Beltre leads all 3B in hits, doubles, rbi, and total bases, and he's 3rd in HR. And he's one of the best defensive 3B of all time too.

If he's not a first ballot type of player, I don't know who is...

I mean, Rolen was (rightfully) elected just last year, and Beltre is basically Rolen with an extra 1000 hits, 150 HR, and 400 rbi...

Hasn't it been illustrated that there are fewer full time catchers than there used to be? If catchers really do catch less nowadays, then the voters are going to have to adjust for that going forward, same as they will with starting pitchers.

If Mauer isn't a HOFer, than I'm not sure there's going to be another HOF worthy catcher for a long time. He's better than Posey, Molina, Perez, Realmuto, etc. The days of no doubt HOF career backstops like Fisk, Carter, Rodriguez, and Piazza may be over. Now you get to pick between short but dominant peaks (Mauer, Posey), or long careers without much true dominance (Molina).

I haven't heard that before, but even if true, you can see the voters are going to take a LONG time to do that as they haven't come anywhere near to doing it for pitchers yet. "Better than" is pretty much entirely individual perspective, right? Posey has a comparable peak by WAR, perhaps in more traditional ways as well (ROY, MVP, batting title). How much does a voter value 3 WS rings, a career .300 average, Captain of the Giants, and stayed behind the plate for his whole career? Regardless of the growing popularity of WAR, Molina seems to be widely viewed as an all time great, and I think he'll do much better than Mauer in HOF voting.

As far as "full time" catchers, I did look at seasons from 2000 forward for at least 1000 games caught and came up with 25 players, 12 of them started their careers after Mauer, and 4 are active. In the 24 years prior, 1976 to 1999 there were 22 players with at least 1000 games caught, so doesn't seem to have been a decrease in "full time" catchers by this methodology at least.

I laughed because although our granddaughter is only two-and-a-half, when we go outside to play I wear a Beltre 29 hat and she always brings it to me and puts it on my head. So I actually do tell her about Beltre, in her terms. Though I think she prefers Adolis Garcia. Anyway, she likes the Garcia T-shirt I bought her.

I realize that calling Beltre's a "Palmeiro resume" is just shorthand for "career candidate," and Palmeiro had a 72-bWAR career and is hardly a dismissive comp. And Beltre did have numerous unimpressive years in his 20s. But Beltre had a greatly distinctive and charismatic presence. Oddly enough, his defense and his flair at the plate and his general personality are exactly the kinds of things that might overrate Beltre in the "tell your grandkids" department, if one can overrate a 93-bWAR career.

Solid take! And big time bonus points for sharing that really cool story about your granddaughter!!

It would be wild if Gary Sheffield of all people was the one who cracked the PED barrier when Bonds and Clemens couldn't.

I'd actually bet it was Ryan or Fisk who cracked that barrier, but if you want to be more contemporary, go with Rodriguez or Piazza. And don't you love the irony of Big Hurt railing against PED's all these years pushing a testosterone enhancer on TV? Makes me laugh anyway!

#60 - Well yeah, I'd bet all my money - and all of yours! :-D - that there's already multiple PED guys in the HOF. I just meant the first guy that is universally considered to be a PED cheat to be elected despite that knowledge already being available at the time. There's Ortiz, of course, but voters collectively decided that the (admittedly flimsy) evidence against him didn't count, whereas equally flimsy evidence against Sosa and even lesser evidence against Clemens did count.

I like Beltre but I don't think he should be unanimous. That distinction should be reserved for the very very best. Beltre is the next tier down. He's not a Mays or Aaron.

Colon isn't the definition of Fame? He's Big Sexy with the best HR in baseball history

I don't know whether there are fewer full-time catchers now than there used to be. Catchers have always had a hard time putting up big career WAR totals. The very best (Bench, Fisk, Carter, Berra, Rodriguez, Piazza) have 60-75 WAR, the best of the rest tend to have 50-55. Mauer got to 55 by putting up 10 WAR as a 1B/DH, but otherwise he seems to fit well in that second group.

Colon isn't the definition of Fame? He's Big Sexy with the best HR in baseball history

Of the names we are looking at here, I would say A-Rod and Ichiro are the only ones even remotely famous outside of serious ball fans. Maybe Jose Bautista (in Canada only).

Colon played for 11 teams and rarely (if ever) spoke English in the media. I suspect you could show his photo to 5,000 people on the street and get about 4,950 blank stares.

#60 - Well yeah, I'd bet all my money - and all of yours! :-D - that there's already multiple PED guys in the HOF. I just meant the first guy that is universally considered to be a PED cheat to be elected despite that knowledge already being available at the time.

Agreed, except for the part where you're being so liberal with my money :-D

I like Beltre but I don't think he should be unanimous. That distinction should be reserved for the very very best. Beltre is the next tier down. He's not a Mays or Aaron.

A) You didn't say unanimous, you said first ballot. B) Mays and Aaron weren't unanimous. C) Beltre is a clearly qualified, over qualified is more like it, first ballot candidate.

As far as "full time" catchers, I did look at seasons from 2000 forward for at least 1000 games caught and came up with 25 players, 12 of them started their careers after Mauer, and 4 are active. In the 24 years prior, 1976 to 1999 there were 22 players with at least 1000 games caught, so doesn't seem to have been a decrease in "full time" catchers by this methodology at least.

Going out the door to walk the dog I had the thought it would be better to look at this on a per season basis than in total games played. So I kept the same time periods but used 100 games caught as a "full time" measure. For 1976-1999 there were 405 such seasons, 2000-2003 had 426. If you add the teams per season for each period, to account for expansion, and then divide the number of seasons in each period you get 0.63 per season for the earlier time period and 0.59 for the later period. So slightly fewer on a seasonal basis, but doesn't seem significantly fewer. This seems likely to drop a bit more now that there's a DH for the NL. Why not use a Mauer or Posey like hitting catcher at DH a bit more and put less wear and tear on them behind the plate? But those are still pretty rare players so it may not change all that much even so. Baltimore looks like they may try to do that with Rutschman, Milwaukee may be leaning that way with Contreras.

Catchers have always had a hard time putting up big career WAR totals. The very best (Bench, Fisk, Carter, Berra, Rodriguez, Piazza) have 60-75 WAR, the best of the rest tend to have 50-55. Mauer got to 55 by putting up 10 WAR as a 1B/DH, but otherwise he seems to fit well in that second group.

Right, he does. Using JAWS for a shorthand, he's right between Berra and Dickey, but Berra only started 248 games at a position other than catcher, Dickey didn't play a single game at another position. Going down the list a bit you come to Cochrane and Hartnett, the former had a very short career for a HOF, but still started over 400 more games behind the plate than Mauer, and the latter nearly twice as many. I'm not trying to argue against Mauer, I'm just trying to put him into context, and simply using WAR or JAWS as a shorthand doesn't work for me, at least not yet. I guess you could say he has a catcher's HOF peak/prime by more traditional stats and by WAR, but then he has nothing outside of those 10 seasons at catcher because he never caught another game. This seems to me to take us back to Banks, but at least Banks had 4 MVP caliber seasons at SS and 500 career HR. Mauer won and MVP, but even giving him extra credit for catching did he have any more of that caliber?

Not directing this at you, Dave, just using your comment as a jumping off point.

Beltran, Beltre, Helton, Jones, Mauer, Sheffield and Wagner all at 100% per the tracker! ;-)

67. I wouldn't vote for Beltre on first ballot because I don't want it to be unanimous. Sorry I had to spell it out. Or to be even more clear, if he didn't get in on first, I'd vote on the second. I know people didn't get in unanimous before, doesn't mean I want players a level down to them to get in that way. It doesn't matter one way or the other but that's what I'd do.

If Wagner goes, how many more years will it be before we start hearing that Francisco Cordero and Fernando Rodney are deserving too?

Colon played for 11 teams and rarely (if ever) spoke English in the media. I suspect you could show his photo to 5,000 people on the street and get about 4,950 blank stares.

And the other 50 are probably his children from secret marriages...

It would be wild if Gary Sheffield of all people was the one who cracked the PED barrier when Bonds and Clemens couldn't.

Or Colon!

an all time great "old" player (you look at what he did from 31 on)

This argument never worked for Barry Bonds...

Just to clarify, the only reason we are talking about Colon is simply because I listed him as a guy I would consider/have strong cases and yet didn't list David Wright. It doesn't mean I think Colon is a hofer or that he would get my vote, but he's a guy I can see being convinced to consider. I don't think of Wright as that way.

As far as other names mentioned. I've pushed for Santana (and Kevin Brown) for the hof in the past, so yes I have him above Colon.

As to who I think will get in as Duke asked upthread. I think Beltre is a lock, Helton pretty much also. Wagner should be locked in after his vote total last year and the history of the voting, but at the same time, it's hard for me to believe that less than 25% of the voters nowadays are hard core stat guys. (of course Rivera went in unanimously so maybe I'm over estimating the current electorate)

I think Beltran will have the biggest jump among returning candidates, but not enough to get in.

I think Mauer comes in at 50% or higher, nobody else breaks 50% among new candidates.

I prefer top 5 seasons for peak, which gives [Helton] the best peak of any HOF 1B whose career was after 1950

By fWAR, Bagwell easily beats Helton in 5-year peak by 5.5 WAR.

I'm in the camp that war underrates starting pitchers in this era

Is there anybody but you in this camp?

I think I'm also in this camp.

I more or less will give a 1.5-2.0 war bonus to any pitcher who has 200ip and 32+ starts.

That is nuts.

And even I agree that level of adjustment is straight nuts.

And even I agree that level of adjustment is straight nuts.

It wasn't fully thought out, it was an approximation and not something I've yet done mathematically, so don't know where the number really lies, but my point was that I look at starting pitchers war in this era as being low for the workhorses (actually I think the workhorses war in most eras is probably a bit lower than their actual value, but I think it becomes more pronounced in the more current time frame)

Colon isn't the definition of Fame? He's Big Sexy with the best HR in baseball history

That makes him the definition of, like, mild amusement. (Especially since "best HR" is clearly being judged on "most surprising" rather than "most important.")

If Wagner goes, how many more years will it be before we start hearing that Francisco Cordero and Fernando Rodney are deserving too?

I don't know, but I'm pretty sure you'll start hearing that this year about Francisco Rodriguez.

Wagner should be locked in after his vote total last year and the history of the voting, but at the same time, it's hard for me to believe that less than 25% of the voters nowadays are hard core stat guys. (of course Rivera went in unanimously so maybe I'm over estimating the current electorate)

I'd say you're overrating them by a pretty significant amount. Despite the prevalence of voters who are more open to advanced metrics, very few of them only rely on that as their means of analysis. You correctly, IMO, mention Rivera as an example of this. Many of those who do use or consider advanced metrics still believe in the narrative of the closer. Others think that they can justify using JAWS for relievers and believe it's a valid stat based methodology. They do consider closers to be a different position than starting pitcher. Just look at the voting results for Hudson, Buehrle, Pettitte. Hell, Wagner debuted very low, but Hoffman came on the same year and shot right past Mussina. In their third year Hoffman went in while Wagner languished, but Mussina still wasn't in and it was his fifth year. Santana debuted that year and couldn't even get 5% desptite 2 CY's, a pitching triple crown, leading the league 3 times in WAR, and over twice as many IP as Wagner.

By fWAR, Bagwell easily beats Helton in 5-year peak by 5.5 WAR.

Interesting. I see in Jaffe's article about Helton on Fangraphs he uses Baseball-Reference WAR.

Note, I'm not saying that they are equivalent value to that type of player, but when looking at the hof case for a pitcher and comparing across eras, I'm saying his performance in this era is equivalent relative to his peers as that addition. So a 50 war modern day pitcher(who consistently ranked high in innings pitched and games started) is probably ranked equivalent to a 60 war pitcher from the 70's (assuming that they both are equal in relative performance)

Ahh, Sorry, I did misread what you wrote, confused the bit about eras and in-season durability. I thought you were giving 1.5-2 WAR for pitching 200 rather than 160 in a season.

It still doesn't make sense but I will grant it non-nuts status. :-) I think the argument you are looking for is that top pitchers of today are as talented (of as high quality) as the top pitchers of earlier eras but either (a) pitching is much harder than it used to be in some absolute sense and/or (b) strategies have radically changed.** Then argue that the HoF's responsibility is to put in the best pitchers. WAR then is a tool for helping to idenfiy who the best pitchers are, a better idea than messing up all the WAR math. Still you're baiscally arguing that Colon's 3500 innings (48 WAR) are "worth" the same as Reuschel's 3500 innings (68 WAR) which is gonna be a challenge. (Or at least a challenge without essentially saying "I don't believe in any of WAR's adjustmments.") In fact I'm not sure you're not arguing that Colon's 3500 innings should be worth more than Reuschel's since pitching 3500 innings was so more rare during Colon's era.

So Fergie threw (give or take) 21-22% of all Cub innings at his peak; Scherzer threw about 15% of all Nat innings at his peak. Fergie was throwing 40% more innings per year. That can't just be waved away. And even if you wanted, that extra 90 innings a year for Fergie only gave him about 8-9 more Rrep (near as I can tell) not 15-20. Or you could make the argument that today's pitchers emphasize quality at the expense of quantity and so Scherzer produces more on a per-inning basis that Fergie but Fergie produces more innings -- which is pretty much exactly what WAR balances.

Note: Fergie 4500 IP, 82 WAR, 42 WAA ... Scherzer 2835 IP, 74 WAR, 50 WAA ... I think it's hard to argue that WAR is substantially over-valuing Fergie's 1700 inning edge. That's 60% more career innings!

Note: Mr. WAR is around but as I understand it ... era differences for everybody are primmarily captured via slightly different RAA to WAA conversion rates, mainly based on scoring context. For pitchers they are also captured in RA9role -- Scherzer gets credit for 0.18 R/9 for being a SP while Fergie just 0.09 R/9. Fergie then gets "credit" for 45 runs in his 4500 IP while Scherzer gets credit for 57 in RA9role. Fergie's RAA/WAA conversion rate is about 8.3 RAA per WAA while Scherzers is about 8.7 RAA per WAA so Fergie picks up about 2 WAA there.

** Note that historically position player usage strategies have been essentially constant across eras. This might be changing -- e.g. catchers, the decline in qualified batters.

Mauer's usage: I don't think anybody is saying that Mauer never had a full season behind the plate. He's gone one season of 135, that's a robust total. Than 119 which was about common for a "full-time starting C" (recognizing that it has always been true that many teams in a season don't have a "full-time starting C" becaue neither of their Cs can hit). Then he has 3 sesons in the 105-110 range which is ... not much. It's simply not impressive even on a "peak" basis and certainly not in a "career catcher" sense.

For contrast:

Realmuto: 130/130/130/125/124/116/112/111
Yadi: 142/136/133/133/131/131/130....
Perez: 143/137/128/126/120/113

Mauer's usage is very much in line with Posey, Grandal, Contreras and, so far, Rutschman and Smith. Of course one reason teams limit a guy's time back there is hoping to extend his career back there which unfortunately didn't work in Mauer's case.

MLB catchers by descending WAR with fewer than 1,900 career games, at least 50% at catcher who are in the HOF: Dickey, Cochrane, Bresnahan, Campenella, Lombardi, Schalk, Farrell.

And you'll note that all those guys are pre-war (Lombardi had a few games) and Campy who got a late start and had a tragic accident. Something happened to C durability in the 2nd half of the 20th centuury (a small part being 162 games) such that "lots" of guys reached the 1500 games caught and even 2000+ games caught mark.

Anyway, sure, Mauer is high on the list of all-time C peaks. And that might be worthy of the HoF. All I hope for is that we properly acknowledge that his C career was short, a substntial portion of his career was spent elsewhere and therefore he moves conisderably down the career C list. Not his fault of course anymore than it is Banks' fault his knees went or Yount's fault he had that (shoulder?) injury or Puckett's fault his eyes went bad or Campy's fault he had a car accident (you know what I mean) or Eric Davis's fault he couldn't stay on the field or Bo's fault he chose football (you know what I mean).

On the broader scale, I'm just less engaged with the HoF than I used to be. Baines kinda broke me, this year's VC selections, to a lesser extent Ortiz and Mo as the first unanimous and soon I think Wagner will break me for good ... and of course Bonds et al are out. Every "great to see a guy like that get through" seems balanced by two "WTF is that guy doing there" and a "Grich still can't even get on a ballot." Joe West might be a HoFer for crying out loud.

84. I like to think the Hall is composed of two groups. Those voted in by writers who are a reasonable proxy of the fans. The second group is composed of players that baseball insiders want to see enshrined. It's by definition a different process. I like it. It interests me to see who the insiders really think belong. I'm willing to accept they have a different view than just a sabrmetric focus.

However, I struggle with the writers desire to put in every retired reliever with a pulses. And Joe West? Ugh. Anyone but Joe.

The problem I have with JAWS and statistical analysis is that it's made HOF criteria very plain vanilla. The vets get a chance to correct for that

How much does a voter value 3 WS rings, a career .300 average, Captain of the Giants, and stayed behind the plate for his whole career?

Re: Posey "staying behind the plate for his whole career," it's sorta true but sorta not. It's true that he ended his career at catcher and never was moved to another primary position (as Bench, Mauer and Victor Martinez were) -- over his last two seasons (2019 and 2021) he played 207 games at catcher, only 4 at 1B, and 3 at DH.

But in the middle of his career, he played quite a lot of 1B:

2012: 114 games at C, 29 at 1B (20% of defensive games)
2013: 121 C, 21 1B (15%)
2014: 111 C, 35 1B (24%)
2015: 106 C, 42 1B (28%)
2016: 123 C, 15 1B (11%)
2017: 99 C, 38 1B (28%)

In total, he logged 1093 games at C and 229 at 1B -- about 17% of his defensive games were at 1B. So he wasn't really a "pure" catcher. (He also played 31 games at DH. If he had been on an AL team, presumably many of those 1B games would have flipped to DH.)

Some comps:

Pudge Rodriguez: 2427 C, 8 1B (rounds to 0%)
Yadier Molina: 2184 C, 48 1B (2%)
Pudge Fisk: 2226 C, 72 elsewhere (3%) +166 games at DH
Sal Perez: 1200 C, 32 1B (3%) +170 games at C
Jorge Posada: 1574 C, 42 1B (3%) +181 games at DH
Gary Carter: 2056 C, 216 elsewhere (10%)
Ted Simmons: 1771 C, 264 elsewhere (13%) +279 games at DH
Victor Martinez: 858 C, 214 1B (20%) +More games at DH than at C

The resistance to Mauer from some here is baffling. He put up 55 WAR, which is close to the borderline no matter what position a guy plays. But he accrued the vast majority of that value at the position that every damn person here knows is one that players aren't capable of stockpiling value the way they are at other positions. And he did it not in a Johnny Damon kind of compiler way, but the high peak that many here claim to prefer. How the hell is that guy not a Hall of Famer?

Thibs put out a poll on what voters think will happen and Mauer was projected very highly (I think higher than Beltran), so I think he will do well and get in pretty quick . His only issue is McCann comes on and then Posey and then Molina so he needs to get in quick before the other catchers start dividing the vote up.

84. I like to think the Hall is composed of two groups. Those voted in by writers who are a reasonable proxy of the fans. The second group is composed of players that baseball insiders want to see enshrined. It's by definition a different process. I like it. It interests me to see who the insiders really think belong. I'm willing to accept they have a different view than just a sabrmetric focus.

It's more "Which of my friends do I want to hang out with once a year at induction parties?" which makes me hopeful they tell Joe West to stay home.

On the broader scale, I'm just less engaged with the HoF than I used to be. Baines kinda broke me, this year's VC selections, to a lesser extent Ortiz and Mo as the first unanimous and soon I think Wagner will break me for good ... and of course Bonds et al are out.

just to piggy back onto this. One moment that stands out for me is Willie Davis being somehow left off the ballot entirely and sits at 60.5 WAR. But that was a long time ago. THe recent change to ten years of candidacy just seems totally nuts to me. If you're gonna change the rules that drastically well fawk how do you even compare guys who got in under the old rules vs the new? Or Kenny Lofton being one and done. He has 68 WAR after googling that. What was your moment the HoF Jumped the Shark?

****

A few months back I was arguing that we should just draw a line at 62 WAR and waive in anybody over that (other than Joe Jackson) because that represents 50% of the HoF total. As luck would have it Andruw Jones sits right near that with 62.7. So can we just call it the Andrews Jones Line?

I think the Mauer situation is most closely related in terms of career WAR to Gene Tenace and Joe Torre. I realize Torre is in, but presumably his managing and executive work accounts for some of that. If Torre never coached do either he or Tenace deserve to be in the HoF? I guess that's how I word it.

My votes (all time/positional rankings in parentheses):

No Doubters:

A-Rod (17/2)
Beltre (102/8)
Ramirez (111/6)
Jones (128/12)
Pettitte (136/43)
Beltran (150/14)
Utley (174/16)
Sheffield (176/16)
Mauer (243/13)

That's nine spots taken up. I got three other guys in my PHoM:

Buehrle (234/70)
Abreu (247/24)
Wright (267/22)

And I got one guy who's close to being elected, and on my borderline - Helton (304/32). Plus the other guy close to being elected - Wagner (5th ranked closer, but well outside my PHoM). So that's five players to consider for the final spot. Do I go strategic and try to save a guy like Wright or Buehrle? Or do I try to free up some ballot spots and help get Helton off the ballot? I guess I'd choose Wright for my last spot, hoping he gets to 5%. I'll assume Helton and Wagner don't need my help to get in this year. And I'll assume that Abreu is safe, and hope that Buehrle is as well.

I think the Mauer situation is most closely related in terms of career WAR to Gene Tenace and Joe Torre. I realize Torre is in, but presumably his managing and executive work accounts for some of that. If Torre never coached do either he or Tenace deserve to be in the HoF? I guess that's how I word it.

Torre yes, Tenace no

One moment that stands out for me is Willie Davis being somehow left off the ballot entirely and sits at 60.5 WAR.

I would bet the farm that this was a clerical error. Davis last played full-time in the majors in 1976, then went to Japan for two years, then back to the Angels for a full season where he batted 56 times, then to Mexico for a final season. Until someone documents it better, I'm assuming the Hall just put his index card in the wrong box.

Re: HOF jumping the shark? -

Other than the writers bizarre fetishization of closers and their spiteful and sanctimonious sudden devotion to the character clause after ignoring it for 70 years, I actually think the BBWAA does a pretty good job. Not perfect, certainly, but some of that isn't their fault. Lofton, mentioned above, might not have been solely the victim of writer incompetence. If they had an unlimited ballot and collectively decided that he wasn't worthy of even a second look, that would've been idiotic and scorn worthy. But it wasn't unreasonable for 97% of the voters to decide he wasn't one of the top 10 players on THAT ballot. They were hamstrung by a stupid rule (the 10 man ballot limit). I think he's a HOFer, but he wouldn't have made my top 10 that year either.

My biggest problem with the HOF is the various incarnations of the VC and their seemingly random, all over the map standards for induction.

#90 - Do you mean that everyone with 62+ WAR gets elected automatically and the voting still happens with everyone below that to take into account narrative, peak, extenuating circumstances, etc? Or that raw WAR totals should solely determine who gets enshrined?

The former is a good idea, although I'd raise the automatic line to 70 WAR (which still would've gotten Whitaker, Grich, and Dahlen elected). The latter would be crazy IMO and make the HOF much less interesting. A HOF that can't be bothered with the likes of Ichiro, Vlad, Rivera, Ortiz, Berra, Piazza, Killebrew, or Stargell (amongst others) is much worse than the real one.

(Apologies if you've answered this before. I know I had this conversation with someone a few months ago; just can't remember if it was you. I'm getting old)

Mock ballot for the executives is up now

And you'll note that all those guys are pre-war (Lombardi had a few games) and Campy who got a late start and had a tragic accident. Something happened to C durability in the 2nd half of the 20th centuury (a small part being 162 games) such that "lots" of guys reached the 1500 games caught and even 2000+ games caught mark.

There's definitely a change. I would think better protective equipment helped. Not sure how much the mitt changed and when, but improvements in catcher's mitts could be a potential game changer. If guys were getting busted up with those old pie tin shaped gloves, the new hinged glove could have prevented a lot of broken fingers and sprains.

87: I will likely hurt your rep being in agreement. But this place one weird stance is Mauer isn’t a HOF worthy player.

I hold that he should have bagged it after the concussion. Then like Puckett would have likely gone in easily on what might have been

Plus unlike Puckett he’s a good guy by every account.

Shame on him for playing with a brain injury and not still being great

A few thoughts here.

86 - With Mauer and Posey (in future years) the bat was so good, that from a team perspective it made more sense to have them catch 110 games and play first or DH for another 35 (assuming health) rather than play 125 and significantly increase the risk of injury / significantly reduced effectiveness. Pudge Rodriguez wasn't the same level of hitter (outside of his peak years), Yadi never was but both were defensive superstars. Posada and Simmons are probably the most apt comparisons. Fisk and Carter on a a different level in terms of longevity and hitting ability when combined. I see Posada and Simmons also have a healthy enough number of games away from catcher.

87 - Mauer is borderline onbWAR alone, but then given he is 2/3 or 3/5 catcher, puts him squarely over the line. Plus he has the peak, good durability during his prime. He's not inner-circle or even upper half, but is comfortably enough in.

90 - as with 96, I'd use 70 or 75 bWAR as the auto-in line, the closer you get down towards 62bWAR, the player pool increases increasingly quick. Slight differences in assessment of fielding value or other things can make a huge difference.

95 - Lofton came on in 2013, a very stacked ballot. Most other years (especially 2020 - present) he would've lingered for multiple ballots. Johan Santana in 2018 is in the same boat, if he pitches an inning in 2013 or especially 2014, he is eligible in 2019 and in all likelihood isn't one and done. The ballot was so loaded from 2013-19.