Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Based on these polls, this is what I found:
Poll #2: 17.5 singles = 12.5 strikeouts, or singles valued at 1.4X the strikeout. That’s less than its intrinsic run value.
Poll #3: 15 SO = 5 walks, or strikeouts valued at 3X the walk. Fans really don’t like walks.
Poll #4: Fans FAR prefer 3 doubles and 1 out to 4 singles.
Poll #5: Fans somewhat prefer 4 triples to 3 HR and 1 out.
Poll #1: Fans somewhat prefer doubles to steals
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Defense is fun for me to watch, that isn't covered here. Looking at the list Byron Buxton is in the top 10 for offensive fun and he's definitely fun to watch on defense.
Guys who were fun to watch at the plate: Boggs, Votto, Chipper, Manny
Guys who were fun to watch in the field: Jack Wilson, Rey Ordonez, Andruw, Brandon Phillips
But what about the pitchers? I was a pitcher, some of my favorites to watch were Maddux (easily), Big Unit, Jack McDowell. Wakefield and Candiotti and Sparks were fun because how can watching knuckleballers not be fun (whatever else you might say about it, the novelty is fun).
These lists are far from complete.
Current players who are a lot of fun to watch: Nestor Cortes, Zack Greinke, and... ummm... man. Pitching sure is awful to watch these days, isn't it?
Plus his slide is a thing of beauty.
Favorite batters to watch at the plate (no particular order):
Beautiful, textbook perfect swings - Griffey Jr, Palmeiro, Harper, Judge
McGwire - Best homerun swing
Roid Barry - So simplistic, yet so effective. No wasted movement. Hitting broken down to the basics.
Thome - Loved the bat point and the violent, corkscrew uppercut swing! Looked like he'd tear a muscle in his back every time he missed.
Manny Ramirez - So effortless. Looked just like a lazy wave of the bat, but obviously you can't argue with the results.
Bagwell - So ugly it was beautiful. Pujols had sort of a less exaggerated version.
Sheffield - The menacing bat waggle made him look like one of the most intimidating hitters at the plate, despite being one of the smallest major power hitters of his era.
Nomar - The quirky routine was epic.
Piazza - No leg kick at all! Pure upper body power.
Least beautiful super effective swing - Frank Thomas. Obviously the results speak for themselves, but the Big Hurt's swing always looked clunky and awkward to me.
Sammy Sosa was a lot of fun.
** Walker vs Unit in real games: 393/485/571
EDIT: I checked but Kessinger is also over 2000 games with no postseason appearances.
EDIT2: I was gonna guess Kurt Suzuki as the active leader but he made the WS in 2019 with the Nats.
Most fun player from my childhood: probably Eric Davis or Darryl Strawberry or Kirby Puckett
Most fun player from my adolescence: Kenny Lofton, Roberto Alomar
Most fun player of my 20s: Ichiro by a mile
Most fun player of my adulthood: I still like Bryce Harper, come at me.
Trying to describe Rickey to somebody who wasn't around in the 1980s is tough to do well. Early in his career, you'd hear people put others in his category because of the stolen bases, guys like Ron LeFlore or Omar Moreno or something. The only guy remotely like him was Tim Raines, who happened to be a contemporary. But then add the swagger; the unique batting stance; the way he slid into the bases; the flare for the dramatic. He led the league in stolen bases for Oakland as a 21-year-old (with 117 walks)...and a 39-year-old (with 188 walks)! He was from Oakland, born on Christmas Day 1959, and he kept ending up back in Oakland to play baseball. Super smart, kept figuring out ways to get better. Then, when he physically clearly was in decline, he figured out ways to retain enough value to keep playing well into his 40s.
And Pedro? Peak-of-his-powers Pedro in Boston was the closest thing I've ever seen in my 40+ years of being a baseball fan of watching a region just stop what they were doing to watch a regular season game like it was an NFL game. 1999-2000 Pedro, in particular, was so uniquely captivating - not just dominant, but hypnotically captivating - that people would literally plan their schedules around Pedro's next start. It'd be a July weeknight, and you'd go to a neighborhood bar in Brighton or Somerville, and the bar would be filled with people focused on the TV, watching the 4th inning of a game against Minnesota or KC or something in rapt attention, so long as Pedro was pitching.
During the McGwire/Sosa HR chase, you'd see some of that at a local bar, but only when the record-chaser was coming up. Then, everybody would be quiet for a few minutes to see if a HR would be hit. But with Pedro, he could keep your attention for the better part of three hours, no records or pennant on the line. Just pure charisma, talent, bulldog competitiveness, and smarts, wrapped into one person.
Position player-wise, it's the same sort of deal. My favorite guy of the last decade or so was/is (he'll be in NPB this year) Willians Astudillo. Short, squat, slow. Swings everything, makes contact anyway. Plays super hard, looks kind of ridiculous. Plays all over the field, including at positions he has no business being at. When he plays, my eyes go to him.
It's one of the best things about baseball - there's so many pathways to usefulness and yet, every once in awhile, some guy finds a path not often taken.
Position players based on games played
Pitchers based on games pitched
Mike Trout is not the active leader
I haven't looked at him yet, but my initial guess for active leader is McCutchen... looking it up, he hasn't made a WS appearance, not sure where he ranks, but I can't think of anyone with more games than him who hasn't.
Edit: After cheating, the active leader is kinda obvious.
(Mentioned first by Votto himself in #14, but never answered)
Which would bias things towards relievers. Ignoring WS criteria, the first SP on the most games list is Cy Young at #25. David Weathers is in the top 20 all-time in games pitched. (OK, Eck is at #5 if you want to count him.) Games pitched is just a moronic criterion for something like this.
Ken Griffey Jr is correct
2022 Lindor = fun
Nimmo is goofy fun, complete with the Pete "Charlie Hustle" Rose sprint to first base after a walk.
McNeil is fun a la Post 18 - he noticeably checks out the defensive alignment just before entering the batter's box to guide his swing decisions and he rarely strikes out; toughest in NL to whiff in 2022. plus he rarely HRs or walks. bottom line, he's probably going to hit the ball and a fielder is going to have to chase after it.
Little guys who hit everything hard:
Jose Altuve, Bo Bichette, Mookie Betts
Tall guys who can move:
Oneil Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, Vaughn Grissom
The Natural:
Gunnar Henderson
Short pitchers who bring it:
Dylan Cease, Spencer Strider
Old glove guys who can still sling it around:
Kevin Kiermeier, Brandon Crawford
yea, I think I would prefer it to be innings pitched as the criteria, games just doesn't really give the elite names you will get on the list as innings pitched, and somewhat a point of these lists is to have familiar names on there. With the expanded playoffs now it is probably going to be interesting to see who has most games played (career starting after 1990) who have never appeared in the post season. Although it's probable that with so many post seasons games, that the names will not be that interesting, so it's a toss up...
This either means that everything was more fun when we were younger. Or perhaps that styles of play are getting more homogeneous all the time. Every pitcher throws hard fastballs that move, every hitter takes a bunch of pitches and then goes launch-angle or strikes out, and there aren't many balls in play to field. They're good but none of them stand out.
Of course people were probably saying the same thing in the 1960s, they don't make 'em like Sibby Sisti anymore, etc.
The 2022 Rangers outfield was fun to watch at times … though I have to admit I don't entirely remember who these guys were.
As for fun players, I loved watching prime Johnny Cueto pitch.
How can someone not like Bryce Harper? I put him with Machado in the category of people who are somewhat unfairly disliked, or Beltre who are guys who act in a beat to a different drummer. Harper's only flaw is because of peoples expectations towards him, and it created a ton of pre-judgement.
It's not that it's awful, it's just that it's generic, every team has two or more guys throwing 100 mph who aren't consistent enough to be the closer for multiple seasons. The fun aspect is either the surgical precision of a Maddux or the dominance of a Ryan/Johnson or both with a Pedro. Nobody is really going out of their way to watch a reliever. At the same time a peak Thor or Kershaw was worth a watch.
It's kinda funny in a way, we have preached that the all around player was underrated in the past, the Bobby Grich's, Trammels etc, but now more and more players are becoming all around, even the MVP types. I mean Goldy isn't Hernandez on the field, but he's quite good, nor is he Frank Thomas at the bat but he's good enough. The one skill that is really missing with the modern guys is the batting average dominance, as you mentioned the Boggs or Gwynn's or Puckett of the world. Base running has also taken a hit, but we've seen some guys have a few years doing that well enough (obviously Billy Hamilton) to merit a watch, but there really isn't a Gwynn or Ichiro equivalent out there right now. I fully understand that there is a cycle to things, but at the same time it feels to me that we are less likely to see a .350 avg season going forward than a 50 hr season. (and I don't count LeMathieus .364 in 2020 in that discussion-- last time we had a .350 season was 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2004, 2003... since then we have had 50 hr seasons in 2022, 2019, 2017, 2013, 2010. )
For the most part, yeah, although with the overall rise in homers, no one is going to reach 70 WAR with only 185 (Trammell), 224 (Grich), or 244 (Whitaker) homeruns anymore. The current all around stars - the new Trammell/Whitaker/Grich types - say, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Correa, and Francisco Lindor - are all going to top 300 HR. So even their greatness won't be THAT obscure to the casual/old school fans and voters.
Yep. None of us are old enough to have seen a .400 season, of course, but growing up in the 80's and 90's it at least still felt remotely possible, with Carew hitting .388 in 1977, Brett hitting .390 in 1980, and Gwynn hitting .394 in 1994. Plus several others who eventually tailed off but were still hitting .400 or very close to it at the All Star break (Galarraga and Olerud in 1993, Walker and Gwynn in 1997, Helton and Nomar in 2000, etc).
Luis Arraez is a fun player and probably the closest we have now to a Gwynn or Ichiro, but while he might've hit .350 too if he'd played in the 1990's/2000's, if you're going to win batting titles with no power, hitting just .316 feels a bit "meh".
#45 - Good hitting pitchers is another sliver of excitement we've lost with the current game (other than Ohtani).
This either means that everything was more fun when we were younger.
Most of us are old enough we haven't had actual fun in 30 years. Now get off my lawn and edge yours!
Baez obvsiously but he's already been mentioned by many. Oneil Cruz has some fun potential. There's wonderful entertainment value in Dan Vogelbach, at least for a gentleman of my stature. Votto is a pretty funny guy. Buxton might be massively fun if he can just stay healthy for once. I had high hopes for Wander Franco but he seems to have settled into boringly good not OMG good but I think he's still just 17 so there's hope.
I suppose the lack of adventurous baserunning has also deprived us of those great Barfield, Dawson, Clemente, etc. throws. If there's a current famous gun in RF these days, I can't think of who it is.
The causal structure is complicated but this all goes back to the death of the good nickname!
So, Kingman, Garvey, Tommy John, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Ron Cey, Bill Russell (because he so often just got completely fooled by a pitch), Rickey, Ron Guidry, Goose Gossage, Kent Tekulve, Pete Rose, Fernando Valenzuela, Nolan Ryan, Jerry Reuss, Burt Hooton, Dave Stewart, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Phil and Joe Niekro, Charlie Hough, Rusty Staub, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Ozzie Smith, Steve Yeager, Dave Winfield, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Mike Flanagan, Jim Palmer, Rick Reuschel, Mike Torrez, Bob Knepper, .....
Later day players - Ichiro, Khris Davis in his 0.247 BA years, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, R.A. Dickey, Tyler Rogers, Brad Ziegler and other submariners, Mark Gardner because he was just getting by on guile and that's always interesting, Barry Zito, likewise, Hideki Matsui, .....
Pitching the guy to imitate was Orel Hershiser. Nothing special but just so clean. Unusual deliveries are fun too. Fernando! I liked Mussina's dipping bird. Sublime pitches are fun too. Young Barry Zito's curve would buckle my knees watching from the couch. I never got to see peak Blyleven but I assume it was similar.
EDIT: Pitchers that were fun include Luis Tiant turning his back, Machichel's foot over his head, any knuckleballer ever, Rod Beck throwing that soft spreadable cheese down the middle and daring guys to swing at it. New mechanics have wrung a lot of variation in motions from players as they approach optimal performance, and while 95mph is cool and certainly effective, it's not as fun.
Tony Phillips was another one for my backyard wiffle ball games.
Ozzie Albies is another current player that I thought of last night after hearing the Braves spring training report. Acuna to some extent, but he seems to have gotten more risk averse since he had some injuries.
Current player: The 2022 Judge
Players I saw in person: The pre-1957 Mantle; the post-Korea Ted Williams
Players I wish I'd seen: Ty Cobb; Babe Ruth; The pre-injury Dizzy Dean; Satchel Paige in his prime; Jackie Robinson up through 1951
Two of the top 10 were mentioned as "fun" players above
Walt also got Ernie Banks, which I missed but he comes in at #5 on the list.
three more Cubs in top10 but only one of them known for being a Cub including the number 1 position (hint: not a hall of Famer but should be).
I really like watching Jeff McNeil hit, probably for the reasons articulated in #41 by Booey. O'neil Cruzes highlights are awesome, although I can't imagine actually watching Pirates games.
Yordan Alvarez is a guy I will figure out when he's hitting so I make sure I've got eyes on the screen. I try to watch Shane Mclanahan and the Brewers aces when I can. Ks are boring for relievers, IMO, but when starters are mowing guys down I am entranced. Severino is a hoot too, even if he isn't a dominant force any more.
I think the data we have available makes it even easier to identify fun players/guys who fit your aesthetic. You can figure out who is actually the fastest, who actually has the strongest arm, who actually hits the ball the hardest, who has the sharpest breaking ball. And also that Jeff McNeil does none of those things particularly and is still a fantastic ballplayer some how. I don't watch much baseball any more but there are definitely players who still make it worth sitting through the commercials, the lack of contact, and the excruciating pace of play.
Dawson, Palmeiro, Sandberg.
Palmeiro is number 1. Dawson is #4
So 1-5 have been identified
Three hall of famers still in the next 5
Early Childhood: Canseco, Rickey! Dave Stewart, Eck, McGwire (that HR derby in Boston was crazy)
Teenage - 20's: Bonds, Vlad Sr., Cespedes, Zito, Gagne, Halladay
Current: Ramon Laureano, Liam Hendriks, Kershaw.
Also guys with insane pitches: Devin Williams, Aroldis Chapman in his prime, Wakefield and all knucklers, Unit etc.
I was reading some article and they talked about how dominant Alvarez's bat is, he's in the 100th percentile in pretty much every contact measurement (exit velocity, hard hit percent etc.) so he's obviously a guy that is fun to watch, if you know anything about him.
When I was trying to think of guys who might post a high average going forward, the only two names that felt right to me was Arraez and McNeil. (I think age has caught up to Altuve) I'm sure I'm missing people, but those are really the only two that seem young enough and consistent enough to put forth predictable .300+ seasons.
.308 - Miguel Cabrera
.307 - Jose Altuve
.303 - Mike Trout
.302 - Trea Turner
.301 - Robinson Cano
Since Altuve, Trout, and Turner look very likely to lose their .300 avg by the time they retire, Cabrera may end up holding the "last .300 hitter"* title for quite a while.
Is it unrealistically optimistic to hope that bigger bases and the crackdown on shifts might reverse this trend?
* Career .300 hitter. Obviously .300 seasons will still happen (for a while, anyway)
** Mauer, Posey, and Cano all debuted after Cabrera, but retired earlier, which would make Miggy the last IMO
*** As mentioned already, Arraez (.314 in 1569 PA's) and McNeil (.307 in 2039 PA's) seem like the best bets to thwart Miggy's shot at this distinction
Pre-stance: it is, was and always will be the great Stargell windmill.
Carew: He actually had several stances, dependent somewhat on situation, pitcher, etc. He probably coulda hit as many HR as Ichiri if he wanted to. :-)
Altuve and 300: I suspect he'll hold on. All comes down to how much longer he'll play but his current contract runs out in two years and that's probably the last long-term one of his career. Once he's down to a 250 hitter with mid/late-30s defense and declining power, he's done. If he makes it as far as 10,000 PAs, he needs to hit about 284 to maintain that 300 average. That would be a tough ask. If he only makes it to about 9000 PA then he needs to hit only about 278 and, other than his horrid 2019, that's the worst BA of his career. Two solid years then a cliff dive would do it; or 4-5 solid years then a cliff dive. He doesn't want to Joe Morgan it out to 11,000 PA if he wants to hit 300.
Did it ever interfere with the catcher's throwing lane?
Maybe, but he also could be chasing 3000 hits (another feat that's going to be exceedingly rare going forward) by the end of his career, so that would likely take precedent over maintaining his .300 avg.
There are probably a dozen guys who could put up a .330 season in the future, but I'm thinking more like the Boggs/Gwynn/Carew guys who you can predict with certainty that they will be contending for the batting title "next season". I used to think Matt Carpenter was going to be one of those guys early in his career and he never realized it, even though he put up good offensive numbers overall for many of the years. There are a handful of guys today playing that I can turn into true .300 hitters, but that doesn't mean they will.
Modification on a previous post. I completely forgot about Freeman, he's a true .300+ hitter now also. (even if he's already in his 30's)
can confirm
They are 7,10,8
So still missing number 6 and number 9. Number 9 is on the current Hall of Fame ballot and number 6 is not a HOFr but has been mentioned in this thread.
Yeah, I think one of the keys to maintaining a .300 career average (minimum 3000 PA) is avoiding that end-of-career decline, and the easiest way to do this is to simply stop playing. Pujols lost his .300 career average in his age-40 season; Will Clark retired at 36 (after hitting .319) with his .303 intact. Hal Morris (.304) was done at 35, John Kruk (.300) at 34, Rusty Greer (.305) at 33, Sean Casey (.302) at 32. If those guys wanted to/were able to play until their 40s, I have no doubt they would have finished below .300 (except for Clark, maybe).
So when we're looking for the next "last .300 hitter" it might very well be someone with a short career rather than a truly elite hitter.
Moises Alou is a weird counter-example. It looks like his career average might have dipped below .300 midseason around his age 36-37 seasons, then he hit .322 over his last four (partial) seasons from ages 38 to 41 to finish at .303.
Anyway, for sure, there is a solid chance that Altuve plays well enough to be worth playing regularly until he's 40 while playing not well enough to maintain that 300 average.
Altuve just posted a 5.1 war season, he's a free agent next season.... he has 1935 career hits, there is absolutely no reason to think he won't get a minimum of a 5 year contract going forward, which mean's he's pretty much guaranteed starting status for the next 4 years minimum and up to 6 years. No matter how good you actually are, starting status gives you 120 hits a season if you can stay on the field, so you are looking at a guy who is pretty much guaranteed 480 hits in a worse case scenario going forward(putting him at 2415 hits in a worse case scenario, meaning he drops to a 2 or less war player starting in 2023.)
Altuve isn't just going to make a serious run at 3000, he's pretty much guaranteed a serious run, even assuming a Renteria like collapsed based upon Renteria's last good year, we are still talking 400 hits going forward. Altuve is almost a lock for 2600 career hits, after that it just depends on how steep of a decline he has.
with a 1.085 OPS vs the Oakland dynasty, after a 1.123 OPS in the NLCS vs the Big Red Machine
4 HR, 11 RBI in 11 G
2 bites at the postseason apple in 23 seasons, pretty good results
retired a year before the 1986 Mets WS title, after a 126 OPS+ as a PH in 1985 (55 PA in 54 G and .400/.400/.800)
Mickey Vernon
Buddy Bell
Tori Hunter
Sammy Sosa
Jose cruz
Brian downing
Frank Thomas
BJ surhoff
Chris speier
Andes Gallaraga
And finally clocking in at 21 is Ron Santo
That's a lot of Chicago players in the top 21
Yep, retiring early is how Mauer and Posey were able to keep their .300 avgs. Cano didn't have a short career or retire early, but he would've dropped below last season if teams didn't keep cutting him after a dozen (or less) games.
Yeah, I could definitely see Altuve becoming a .270 hitter with 20-25 homers a year as he advances deeper into his 30's. For a second baseman, that's still a good enough hitter that he could remain a full time starter until he's 40, while also dropping his career avg into the .290's.
I wonder if would have gone in if he gets to 3000 hits
Mickey Mantle hit .245 and .237 in his final two seasons of 1967 and 1968 and finished at a .298 career mark.
he said it bugged him that he let the AVG go below .300.
he also felt like he was just, well, bad at baseball in 1968. true that his knees were shot and he was stuck at 1B in his last two seasons - quite a comedown for a glamorous CF in his prime.
but - not that anybody noticed at the time - he drew 107 and 106 walks in those two seasons at age 35 and 36 (2nd best both seasons to Killebrew 1967, Yaz 1968). and of course 1968 in particular was the Year of the Pitcher.
top 10 in AL OPS both seasons, pretty good. but I guess when you have been to the mountaintop, anything short of that doesn't feel like much of an achievement.
As a youngster in the 1950’s, it was Mays, Mantle and Musial
By the 60’s it was still Mays, but I would add Clemente and Gibson and Frank Robinson.
The 70’s brought Wilbur “ spread some chicken on the hill Wil” Stargell and Morgan, Rose and Bench.
Cal Ripken was my go to guy in the 80’s and 90’s; sure did like to watch Clemens and Maddux pitch
Barry owned. The 2000’s.
Now I really watch Harper, Trout and Trea Turner and Ohtani
Your facts are off a bit -- he's signed through age 2024, his age 34 season. That guy doesn't get a 5-year contract almost no matter how well those seasons go.
Again ... to get to 10,000 ABs, he'll need to get to about 11,000 PAs and he'll need to be a career 300 hitter then to have 3000 hits. He's at 6900 PA right now. Based on his recent track record, that will take 7 full seasons. Give or take, to have 3000 hits at that point, he needs to hit 289 from here on out. We can quibble but "The only way for Altuve to make a serious run at 3000 hits is to keep hitting around 300" seems a fair enough statement to me. Now if he can push on to 11,500 PAs or especially 12,000 PAs then he's got plenty of wriggle room.
No disagreement that he's got the best chance at 3000 hits I just don't think it's particularly good.
The original question was a career 300 BA. To do that he either needs a small number of decline PAs (i.e. he cliff dives whenever it happens) or no substantial decline (i.e. he makes a run at 3000 hits). What threatens both 300 and 3000 is several years as a solid 2B with a 270 BA. Altuve 2021 (278 BA) needs about 4700 more PA (11,600 career) to make it to 3000. That roughly is Biggio ages 33-39 (275 BA) and would give Altuve a bit more than the 1065 hits he needs. The main difference between the two players being that Biggio regularly put up 650-700+ PAs every year while Altuve seems to have settled in around 600.
So yes, it's quite possible Altuve will finish his age 39 season with something like 2920 hits and somebody will give him a job at 40 to finish it off.
oops... not sure how I messed it up, looked at bb-ref, but must have had another name pulled up at the same time.
It does change some of the math of course, so he's probably not locked into anything other than 2300 hits with his current contract. Depending on where he ends up in value on his next free agent year really does make a difference. And honestly completely changes my evaluation. if he puts up a 3+ war in 2024 then he has a serious run at 3000 hits regardless of the number of hits he actually has at that point, if he doesn't then he's dealing with 2 or 3 year contracts where they can dump his ass.
Franco is obvious, but I never would have guessed Abreu.
Because you're surprised he didn't make the Series or that he played that many games? As for the latter, he was one of the most durable guys of the 21st century (13 straight years of 150 or more, leading the league in games played twice). Outfieldfenceaphobia has its merits.
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