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Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Who Will Have the Guts to Trade for Ryan Braun?

The stock of former Brewer golden boy Ryan Braun has hit bottom. And with the Brewers not likely to contend soon, GM Doug Melvin would likely trade the slugger for a discounted rate. But would any team be audacious enough to withstand the public relations problem? They should.

MUGGER Posted: November 05, 2013 at 12:47 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dock Ellis Posted: November 05, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4594406)
Stop linking to your own content.
   2. SG Posted: November 05, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4594420)
Are you sure that someone that's made 23 entries that all link to the same blog and has posted 0 comments is self-linking?
   3. JJ1986 Posted: November 05, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4594426)
Isn't Braun singed through 2022 or thereabouts?
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: November 05, 2013 at 04:35 PM (#4594511)
"Isn't Braun singed through 2022 or thereabouts?"

many posters here have tix for Bring Your Own Torch and Pitchfork Night already

#cmonitwasonatee
   5. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: November 05, 2013 at 06:50 PM (#4594631)
Paging Mr. Dombrowski.
   6. I Am Not a Number Posted: November 05, 2013 at 07:09 PM (#4594644)
Isn't Braun singed through 2022 or thereabouts?

He was Sing Singed in 2013. His sentence is now up.
   7. Bruce Markusen Posted: November 05, 2013 at 07:22 PM (#4594649)
As someone who has no power to link articles, I don't care at all if any of you "self-link" as long as the article is a good one. Given some of the marginal articles that have been posted to BTF of late, the concern should be about "quality linking" and not "self-linking."

Do we really need to see another Bill James Mailbag, where he refuses to answer questions in a respectful manner, or another Murray Chass article that is being posted solely so that others can pile on? Give us more of John D'Acquisto, or Baseball Prospectus, or someone like Rich Barbieri at The Hardball Times, or Grant Brisbee at Baseball Nation.
   8. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: November 05, 2013 at 07:40 PM (#4594657)
No one outside of Jimmy or Repoz can "self-link." Anyone else can submit an item for approval, be it there own or someone else's work.
   9. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 05, 2013 at 07:47 PM (#4594660)
No one outside of Jimmy or Repoz can "self-link."


Not entirely true. Some other people have keys, myself included.

-- MWE
   10. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: November 05, 2013 at 07:50 PM (#4594662)
Fair enough. I seriously doubt MUGGER has keys.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2013 at 08:15 PM (#4594672)
Through 2020 (age 36) actually but for "only" $117 M.

Should they? While I lean towards "I doubt PEDs have a massive impact on performance" I obviously don't know that for a fact. Why should a team take that risk?

So it depends on what it would take. Will the Brewers eat some salary or will they trade him for pennies on the dollar. It also depends on what you think future salaries will look like -- 4/$56 for Swisher last year and even a diminished Braun for 30-36 should be better than Swisher 32-35 so 7/$117 doesn't look scary.

And of course why should the Brewers trade him? Local fans have been reasonably forgiving of their roided stars and there's never any benefit to selling low.

As some folks have noticed, I fing Braun's stat history quite interesting. He debuted with a ridiculous amount of power (310 ISO), very high BABIP and quite high K rate. For each of the next 4 years, the K-rate went down, eventually reduced by 1/3. For the first 3 of those years, the ISO also went down, also by about 1/3. In 2011, it all came together -- career low K-rate, career high BB-rate, 276 ISO, 350 BABIP.

In 2012 though, the K-rate spiked back up to 2008 levels. Everything else stayed pretty much the same but a big boost in his HR/FB rate (from 13.6 to 17.4) maintained the high ISO. With some league-wide decline in offense, he basically maintained his OPS+.

2013 didn't help clarify things. The K-rate jumped again to his rookie-year levels ... of course K-rates jumped league-wide. But he also inched up the BB rate which is suggestive of a shift towards TTO. The ISO and HR/FB fell to 2010 levels. A BABIP of 360 kept this from being his worst offensive year. Of course 2013 was only 253 PA so I'm not going to draw much conclusion from that. He also missed a month due to injury but he's otherwise been a quite durable player.



Braun 2013 was still an excellent player of course -- on pace for 5-6 WAR over a full season. He remains a good defender in LF.
   12. JoeHova Posted: November 05, 2013 at 09:12 PM (#4594702)
Brewers would be stupid to think of doing this. They're not going to sign anybody better for the same money. Doug Melvin could not be trusted to wisely spend the savings anyway. Also, the team suffered from a decade of disinterest the last time they got rid of all their good players. Better to keep a good player who is on a fairly good contract and hope to fill in around him over the next 7 years.

Even if he starts sucking without steroids, who cares? If an MLB team can't afford to keep around a popular (in Milwaukee), fairly young former MVP at $17 million per year, they might as well fold. The potential rewards outweigh the risk.
   13. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 06, 2013 at 12:07 AM (#4594773)
Braun 2013 was still an excellent player of course -- on pace for 5-6 WAR over a full season. He remains a good defender in LF.

This sounds pretty good to me, although I'm not sure about the good defense part. Cespedes for Braun!
   14. Esoteric Posted: November 06, 2013 at 02:03 AM (#4594789)
The only "self-linker" -- more accurately, self-link SUBMITTER -- I'll tolerate is John D'Acquisto. (He doesn't actually submit them, he has someone who's associated with him submit them.) And the only reason he gets a pass is because the stuff is just so damn good.
   15. OCD SS Posted: November 06, 2013 at 07:39 AM (#4594805)
Even if he starts sucking without steroids, who cares? If an MLB team can't afford to keep around a popular (in Milwaukee), fairly young former MVP at $17 million per year, they might as well fold. The potential rewards outweigh the risk.


Isn't the risk that once he starts sucking, he'll no longer be popular, and then unmoveable? If he comes back and is fine in 2014, your point would be vindicated, but how certain is it that he comes back to previous levels?
   16. Lassus Posted: November 06, 2013 at 08:05 AM (#4594806)
If the Mets get Braun I'll buy a damned jersey.

Also, Is this the dude from the old New York Press?
   17. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: November 06, 2013 at 08:13 AM (#4594810)
The only "self-linker" -- more accurately, self-link SUBMITTER -- I'll tolerate is John D'Acquisto. (He doesn't actually submit them, he has someone who's associated with him submit them.) And the only reason he gets a pass is because the stuff is just so damn good.


Why do you hate America?
   18. tfbg9 Posted: November 06, 2013 at 10:03 AM (#4594883)
16-Russ Smith, right? He didn't use all caps.
   19. Ray (CTL) Posted: November 06, 2013 at 10:50 AM (#4594926)
1. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 05, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4594406)


Stop linking to your own content.
2. SG Posted: November 05, 2013 at 03:33 PM (#4594420)


Are you sure that someone that's made 23 entries that all link to the same blog and has posted 0 comments is self-linking?


What's the problem with this? Is it against the site's rules?

And he's not the one who "linked to it," anyway; he submitted it, and someone approved it and posted it.
   20. Ron J2 Posted: November 06, 2013 at 11:02 AM (#4594936)
#19 A lot of people would be happy(ish) if Jim made it against the rules. Link spam is a common problem (though requiring approval pretty much eliminates the spammish aspect)

But Jim's the Man and makes the rules. And I doubt he's upset by the fact that somebody with the keys approved a self-link. Jim's pretty good at letting people know where he thinks the line should be drawn.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 06, 2013 at 11:04 AM (#4594938)
Self-linking is not against the site's rules - although I wish that the self-linkers would, you know, actually participate in the discussion about their writing.

-- MWE
   22. Bote Man Posted: November 06, 2013 at 12:16 PM (#4594996)
9 - Not entirely true. Some other people have keys, myself included.

I would fully support a coup by Mike Emeigh to make him Official Article Moderator On High. I just pass over 60-70% of stuff Repoz posts these days because it's typically flame-bait or just plain off-topic to a site supposedly devoted to the "thinking baseball fan". If you need your full fix just follow @RRepoz on Twitter, which is where most of that stuff should stay.

A move toward linking to better quality articles and resulting discussions would increase the value of this site, even if it might reduce click-through counts.
   23. Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2013 at 01:29 PM (#4595052)
My thoughts about self-linking have changed over time. In the past I didn't allow people to submit their own stuff. As the number of people who have the "keys" and can approve their own links has dwindled (due to the addition of the "Submit News" page) I have softened my stance and now allow people to self-link. That's because submitted links now need to get approved by Repoz or me on our approval page. Admittedly, sometimes he and I approve things too quickly, especially when we are busy. At the same time, we regularly reject some links, either because we just don't link the article or a very similar article has already been approved.

As for linking to better quality articles, if you find something good, I invite you to submit it. I don't have as much time to look for stuff as I used to and I would greatly appreciate the help.
   24. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: November 06, 2013 at 01:54 PM (#4595074)
Yeah, I wish more primates would scour the internet and submit good stuff. Don't be shy dorks!
   25. Dock Ellis Posted: November 06, 2013 at 01:59 PM (#4595081)
Sometimes I find interesting things worth sharing but I'm always thinking someone else is beating me to it. Also I still can't figure out the submission process.
   26. catomi01 Posted: November 06, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4595094)
Self-linking is not against the site's rules - although I wish that the self-linkers would, you know, actually participate in the discussion about their writing.


Has anyone asked Brian McCann if this is a violation of the site's un-writen rules?
   27. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 06, 2013 at 02:52 PM (#4595130)
Sometimes I find interesting things worth sharing but I'm always thinking someone else is beating me to it.


That's not a big deal. If you do happen to submit a redundant item, it just won't get approved. This has happened to me many times, particularly for big stories.

Also I still can't figure out the submission process.


Hit "submit news item" in the upper left on the front page. The instructions are pretty clear from there.
   28. alilisd Posted: November 06, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4595138)
Has anyone asked Brian McCann if this is a violation of the site's un-writen rules?


You don't have to ask, he'll tell you.
   29. Dock Ellis Posted: November 06, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4595140)
Hit "submit news item" in the upper left on the front page. The instructions are pretty clear from there.

I know that bit, my problem is getting some of the content to appear as a quote. I'm never successful. I just tried submitting a news item, so we'll see.
   30. Gch Posted: November 06, 2013 at 03:19 PM (#4595146)
I know that bit, my problem is getting some of the content to appear as a quote. I'm never successful. I just tried submitting a news item, so we'll see.


Are you using < blockquote > or [ quote ]? The submission page says to use blockquote and I've never had a problem with that.
   31. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: November 06, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4595147)
I know that bit, my problem is getting some of the content to appear as a quote. I'm never successful. I just tried submitting a news item, so we'll see.


For quotes, just use the blockquote tag, like so:

<blockquote>
Quoted text goes here.
</blockquote>

It will look like this:


Quoted text goes here.

   32. Jim Furtado Posted: November 06, 2013 at 03:39 PM (#4595157)
There is a bug in the underlying Expression Engine software which prevents the styling buttons (like right above the comment box) from showing up. Hopefully their newest updates will provide a fix. Unfortunately, I've been too busy to test things. Hopefully the issue will be resolved soon. Sorry for the problem.
   33. Dock Ellis Posted: November 06, 2013 at 04:07 PM (#4595172)
I did it! Thanks guys.

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