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Saturday, April 04, 2020

Who Would You Build an MLB Team Around in the 2020s?

As we’ve written in this space before, baseball is a young man’s game more than ever. Players are coming up from the minors sooner and they’re coming up as better players than the twentysomething (or teenagers) of eras past.

So with a new decade in front of us, which major league player would you want to build you team of the 2020s around?

Note to self: Review the nominees in 2030, to see how the decade went for them.

QLE Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:22 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cody bellinger, gleyber torres, juan soto, pete alonso, players, ronald acuna, teams of the future

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   1. TomH Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:55 AM (#5936407)
Color me surprised that Bellinger got more votes than Soto, given that Soto's bat is as good, and is >3 yrs younger. I would take Soto and Acuna and Lindor and Acuna and Trout over Bellinger.
   2. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 04, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5936428)
Soto is younger but will he age well? From what I’ve seen (and I’ll defer to those who have seen more though the numbers back this up) Soto is not much defensively and he looks like a guy who is ripe to pack on some pounds. Bellinger looks a lot more athletic and he’s a good defensive player. Put another way Soto looks like a Miguel Cabrera which obviously isn’t a bad thing but puts a bit of a cap on what he can do.

That said I agree with you about Acura, Lindor and Trout vs. Bellinger.
   3. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:06 AM (#5936443)
Miguel Cabrera is one hell of a cap. But Mike Trout is what makes this so difficult. If you take Trout, you're saying that his 30s will be better than Soto or Acuna's 20s. That's usually a suckers bet, except that we already know that Mike Trout is among the very greatest players of all time.
   4. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 04, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5936453)
Yeah, I’m not saying Soto is likely to be a bust of any sort but by virtue of his defense and athleticism I’d think If Soto=Cabrera then Bellinger=A-Rod. Obviously any of these guys would be players you’d be perfectly happy to have on your team.
   5. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 04, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5936464)
First, I'd make sure there's going to be a MLB in the 2020s...
   6. bbmck Posted: April 04, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5936481)
70+ posWAR over 10 years and debut since Mays and Mantle in 1951, going by Play Index, player pages sometimes have different totals:

Age 18-27 (1): Mike Trout
Age 19-28 (3): Mickey Mantle, Trout, Alex Rodriguez
Age 20-29 (5): Mantle, A-Rod, Hank Aaron, Albert Pujols, Trout
Age 21-30 (8): Mantle, Pujols, Aaron, A-Rod, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Rickey Henderson, Eddie Mathews
Age 22-31 (8): Mays, Aaron, Pujols, Barry, A-Rod, Mantle, Rickey!, Mathews

Age 23-32 (8): Mays, Barry, Aaron, Pujols, A-Rod, Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Rickey!
Age 24-33 (7): Mays, Barry, Aaron, Schmidt, A-Rod, Pujols, Mantle
Age 25-34 (5): Mays, Aaron, Barry, Schmidt, A-Rod
Age 26-35 (4): Mays, Aaron, Barry, Schmidt
Age 27-36 (4): Mays, Barry, Aaron, Schmidt

Age 28-37 (3): Mays, Barry, Aaron
Age 29-38 (3): Mays, Barry, Aaron
Age 30-39 (2): Barry, Mays
Age 31-40 (2): Barry, Mays
Age 32-41 (1): Barry
Age 33-42 (1): Barry

Wade Boggs plays 15 of the first 66 games at Age 24 and puts up 69.8 WAR, Ken Griffey Jr puts up 67.8 WAR with a strike, Cal Ripken Jr 69.8, Roberto Clemente 69.9 the final 10 years of his career and Joe Morgan 66.4 with only 10 games in 1968 are some of the players hit by the arbitrary cut-off.

My pick for the 2020s is Mike Trout, even if he's the next Albert Pujols and he "only" averages 4-5 WAR a season at 28-37 that's a really good negative outcome and he certainly has the potential to be the next Hank Aaron and average 7-8 WAR a season. If money is factored in then I'd go with Ronald Acuna Jr's contract locking him in at $17mil a season through 2028 over Trout's $37mil a season through 2030.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 04, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5936506)
Soto is not much defensively and he looks like a guy who is ripe to pack on some pounds.
I don’t think we have sufficient data to evaluate Jose’s ability to remotely project MLB players future weight gain, but Juan Soto arrived in the Majors at age-19 with only 35 PA above A ball. He was an emergency call-up, after the Nationals were decimated by outfield injuries, who hit so well he became a franchise cornerstone. It’s not surprising that the defensive side of his game left a bit to be desired, but he did improve from his 1st year to the 2nd. By my eye, he never was a bad outfielder in the sense he botched the catch or throw, but more that every once in a while he didn’t pick up the ball off the bat that well, or didn’t take the most efficient route. That doesn’t seem like a huge deal for a player who hadn’t played in stadiums with 3+ decks before and was making his first visits to opposing team parks around MLB. Soto is in elite company on the MLB Age-20 Leaderboard - not many of those guys disappointed.
   8. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 04, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5936525)
To be clear, I’m not saying Soto is going to disappoint or not be a superstar. I think he’s as well suited to be a Hall of Farmer as any player of his age. I just think the likely ceiling for him is Best Hitter in Baseball rather than Best Player in Baseball.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: April 04, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5936541)
He's been fraglie, which is worrying, but I think Carlos Correa deserves a mention here. He did very well in the bWAR defense update and the statcast IF thing kinda loves him at +9 in just half a season last year and +13 in 2/3 of a season the year before that. That puts him as a slightly better hitter and maybe slightly better fielder than Lindor while being almost a year younger.

It's still hard to get away from Trout though. If I had to bet on one of the young'uns, I'd go with Acuna. But at 20-21, Acuna has a 130 OPS+ -- which is pretty awesome for anybody but especially for a good glove CF. But at those ages, Trout had a 174 OPS+. Over the last two years, Trout has had a 191 OPS+. The young guys are just so far behind where Trout was then (who isn't) and so far behind where he is now that even with his aging, I'm not sure they'll do better than finally catching up to him when he turns 34. The SS and Acuna have a shot at passing him before then based on defensive value but who's gonna catch him as a hitter?

Wow, this I hadn't quite realized ... WAR for ages 20-21, expansion era

Trout 19.4
ARod 15.1
Griffey 12.3
Correa 11.8
Bench 11.1
Andruw 10.7
Acuna 9.9

Anyway, when you look at that list by OPS+, nobody comes particularly close to Trout's 174. Pujuls at 157 but that was just age 21. Soto could of course turn into a 170 OPS+ monster any day now. But out of the group we've chatted about, I'd expect Trout to be the best hitter over the next 7 years or so which is a nice start on best player. Agreed, once you bring money into it, Acuna jumps to the front.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: April 05, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5936654)
And although I famously have expressed some doubts about sustained greatness and I don't think he'd rank very high, we still need to have Mookie on the list of candidates.

Maybe that's what we need ... at each position, pick the player you'd most want for the next 10 years. Yes, it's impossible to know for C, just do your best. I suppose we can allow something like a CF moved to a corner.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: April 05, 2020 at 05:37 AM (#5936671)
So let's see ... Trying not to cheat too much ...

1B: Matt Olson ... 26
2B: Torres (same age as Albies) ... 23
SS: Lindor (on durability) ... 26
3B: Bregman** ... 26
LF: Trout (or DH or 1B or wherever he needs to play as he ages) ... 28
CF: Acuna ... 22
RF: Bellinger ... 24

For C, there's very little to choose from. Sanchez (turning 27) is the youngest guy who's any good. Contreras is only a year older than Sanchez and b-r gives him a smidgen more WAR. Young guys without a track record are Will Smith and Carson Kelly, both already 25. 1B is somewhat similar -- you could move Trout to RF, Soto to LF and Bellinger to 1B ... I couldn't decide if that was cheating or not. (Bellinger has played 1B of course.) The other option is Alonzo, turning 25 who of course had an awesome season.

** I was surprised to learn that Jose Ramirez has out-produced Machado for ages 23-26. Chapman is the same age but has lapped these guys in WAR/650. While that requires having faith in DRS, even if you penalize him there, he's still better than those guys on a PA basis. Bregman took it by being a year younger
   12. bookbook Posted: April 05, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5936713)
Maybe Trout is the best single choice.

But I was thinking about this a little differently:

I would take Trout against the field for the next 5 years. He probably builds up an early lead, so I'd take him against the field for the next 7.

For a period of 8 years or longer, I'd definitely take the field. I don't think there's more than a 20% chance that Trout's the best player for the next decade (and the loss of 2020's season just makes the odds longer).

Does that mean Bellinger or Acuna or Torres or Jared Kelenic (who kind of looks like Trout) rising up? Lindor finding another gear?I don't know. But Trout's had some injuries. I don't expect him to go Ken Griffey Jr. on us, but big, muscular guys--even really fast ones--don't always age perfectly. If you look at lists of who played the best in their 20's they don't overlap very much with who played the best in their 30's.

   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 05, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5936720)
at each position, pick the player you'd most want for the next 10 years. Yes, it's impossible to know for C, just do your best.
I assume the player has to have already made his ML debut? Adley Rutschman is probably the answer without any constraints.
   14. bbmck Posted: April 05, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5936754)
Top catching prospect:

2011 - Jesus Montero
2012-13 - Travis d'Arnaud
2014 - Austin Hedges
2015-16 - Jorge Alfaro
2017 - Francisco Mejia
2018 - Joey Bart
2019-20 - Adley Rutschman

   15. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 05, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5936762)
Hmmmm...without a ton of thought on the matter;

1B - Alonso 25
2B - Albies 23
3B - Devers 23
SS - Baez 27
LF - Trout 28
CF - Acuna 22
RF - Betts 27
C - Realmuto 29

I don’t love picking a 29 year old catcher but I’m more confident in Realmuto than any other catcher to be very good for the next 4-5 years. Sanchez gets hurt and his defense is a mess, Rutschman hasn’t played in the bigs yet, Kelly hasn’t really done it yet. So I’m getting a catcher I’m confident in for a half a decade. Soto belongs on the team but like Walt said if you put him with Trout in left it’s hard to sell Soto as the answer. I’ve got Baez at short because Torres (who is the Yankees’ SS now with Didi leaving I think) doesn’t rate well defensively. That scares me a bit. If you count Torres as a second baseman then I agree with Walt that I’d take Gleyber over Ozzie. Alonso at first...he just feels right. Devers is a homer pick but I love the kid. He seems to have a great work ethic and he has improved his game a lot since coming to the majors. He’s much better defensively than he was. That bodes well.
   16. SandyRiver Posted: April 05, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5936787)
Another Raffy homer here. His big improvement, both bat and (to a lesser degree) glove makes one wonder hat that improvement means. Could be reaching his level, could be a career year bound to regress, could be a step on the way up. At age 23 each is possible. I'm rooting for the last - which would be the only one keeping him in this discussion - but would be okay with the first.
   17. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: April 05, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5936796)
I'd be scared of the older guys on that team (except for Trout). Thirty seven is very old in baseball years. I love Mookie as much as the next guy, but you put Trout in right and Soto in left.

Realmuto is also not the answer. I get the idea that at least he'll be good for a while, but you're pretty much guaranteed at least a half-decade of suck. The options are ugly, but my pick would probably be Francisco Mejia. Or you could get Soto some catchers gear and tell him that he owes you an extra double for each passed ball.
   18. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 05, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5936802)
Ziggy - I share your Realmuto concerns as I said but I just don’t see a better choice. If there is a catcher who is more likely to put up 4-5 good years in the next decade I’m all ears. Mejia is an interesting thought that I hadn’t considered and I’m not at all opposed to Rutschman but if it’s my money, I’m spending it on Realmuto.

Re: Trout and Mookie: Yeah I hear ya’. Trout really hasn’t played any right field (he’s also played left less than I realized). My thought is that if Trout’s not a center fielder he moves to left rather than right due to the loss of speed as he ages. Again, Soto in left, Trout in right, yeah I’d take it. Frankly I’m not 100% sold on Mookie in this spot but really was thinking Trout as a left fielder. if I’mmaking him a right fielder then yeah, Soto/Trout on the corners works.
   19. bbmck Posted: April 05, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5936806)
Everyone with 50+ career posWAR has passed their Age 35 season except Mike Trout and Evan Longoria so using born in 1983 (Miggy, Votto, Mauer and Pedroia) as one cutoff and born in 1931 (Mays, Mantle, Mathews, Banks and Boyer) as the other cutoff to limit the impact of wars on WAR. 3000+ PA at Age 30-39.

23 players average 5+ posWAR per 650 PA at Age 30-39. Roberto Clemente 8.3 posWAR per 650 PA in his 30s after 4.3 in his 20s is by far the biggest gain. Larry Walker 6.6/4.9, Ozzie Smith 5.4/3.8, Adrian Beltre 5.9/4.3, Mark McGwire 6.1/4.5 and Barry Bonds 9.3/8 are the other players to gain at least 1 posWAR per 650 PA.

41 players average 4-4.9 posWAR per 650 PA at Age 30-39. Carlos Ruiz 4.2/1.6, Jose Bautista 4.3/1.7 and Julio Franco 4.2/2 gain at least 2. Willie Stargell 4.8/3.4, Jeff Kent 4.4/3.2, Mark Belanger 4.6/3.5, Tony Phillips 4/3 and Jose Cruz 4.4/3.4 gain at least 1.

42 players average 3.5-3.9 posWAR per 650 PA at Age 30-39. Mike Stanley 3.6/0.5 with by far the highest % increase among the 106. Edwin Encarnacion 3.8/2, Ron Fairly 3.6/1.9, Ken Caminiti 3.5/2.3, David Ortiz 3.8/2.8 and Jose Valentin 3.7/2.7 gain at least 1.

posWAR per 650 PA at Age 30-39 as a % of same at 20-29:

686% - Mike Stanley
269% - Carlos Ruiz
256% - Jose Bautista
150-199% - 5 players
140-149% - 2 players

130-139% - 9 players
120-129% - 4 players
110-119% - 6 players
100-109% - 10 players
90-99% - 15 players

80-89% - 24 players
70-79% - 18 players
60-69% - 5 players
59% - Chase Utley

58% - George Brett
57% - Gary Carter
54% - Frank Thomas (Jr)
53% - Carlton Fisk

Clemente at 5.9 per 650 for Age 26-29 is definitely already a star. Ruiz is definitely not a star in his 20s but by catching standards he becomes a star, while Stanley doesn't catch much in his 30s so much harder to describe him as a star. Bautista with his breakout season at Age 29 is 7th in posWAR for 2011-15 his Age 30-34, you probably wouldn't want him for the next 10 years after his breakout but if the 2020 season is wiped out he's a very respectable 32nd.

If you don't use per 650 or a similar metric then someone like Ichiro Sukuzi 5/3.9 will show up for going from 16.9 WAR in his 20s to 42.4 WAR in his 30s or Edgar Martinez 5.9/5.6 and 18.9/46.6 but they are already proven very effective MLB players before their Age 30 seasons.

The Top ~2 position players per year of birth in their 30s are mostly among the best position players in their 20s. Born 1931-1983, 500+ G in CF and 4+ posWAR per 650 PA at Age 20-29, largest drops at Age 30-39:

-5.1 - Ken Griffey Jr 7.1/2
-4.4 - Grady Sizemore 4.4/0
-4.3 - Cesar Cedeno 5.4/1.1
-4.3 - Andruw Jones 5.8/1.5
-4.1 - Adolfo Phillips 4.1/0

-3.8 - Paul Blair 4.8/1
-3.4 - Vada Pinson 4.6/1.2
-3.4 - Mickey Mantle 8.6/5.2
-3.4 - Eric Davis 5.4/2

-3.3 - Bobby Murcer 4/0.7
-3.1 - Aaron Rowand 4/0.9
-3.0 - Andre Dawson 5.7/2.6
-3.0 - Garry Maddox 4.5/1.5

Rowland Office by virtue of -0.1 WAR in 3 PA in his 30s is technically the largest decline per 650 PA. The 4 WAR cutoff also eliminates players like Marquis Grissom 3.9/0.6, Mark Kotsay 3.2/-0.6 and Chris Singleton 3.2/-0.5.

Mike Trout at 9 WAR per 650 PA is really good in his 30s even with a Ken Griffey Jr or Albert Pujols 7.9/2.9 drop. Assume Trout's Age 28 season is lost and he continues his path of being the next Mickey Mantle and that's still 35.9 WAR in the 2020s, he has a ?10%? chance of being that "bad"? If Mike is only a "star" then his 30s are a pretty big gamble, Mookie Betts with his 8.7 oWAR in his MVP season vs Trout averaging 8.9 oWAR over the last 8 years, one of those guys is a pretty safe bet to be pretty good during the 2020s.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 05, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5936820)
I share your Realmuto concerns as I said but I just don’t see a better choice. If there is a catcher who is more likely to put up 4-5 good years in the next decade I’m all ears.
Offense counts, too, and Gary Sanchez is only 27, two years younger than Realmuto. Sanchez is off to a terrific start, according to BB-Ref, hitting .344/.417/.531, so there’s reason to be optimistic!
   21. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 05, 2020 at 07:54 PM (#5936839)
My concern with Sanchez is more health related. He’s obviously a terrific hitter but poor defense and and not a great health record puts him behind Realmuto for me. I suspect he winds up at 1B or DH sooner than later. But yeah, he’s a really good option.
   22. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: April 06, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5937041)
1B is somewhat similar -- you could move Trout to RF, Soto to LF and Bellinger to 1B

Dan O'Dowd posted the handwritten Cleveland Indians '97 roster when they were departing Spring Training on Instagram a couple of days ago -- and it occurred to me at the beginning of that season the Indians had Thome starting at 1B, with Richie Sexson at AAA and Sean Casey in AA. The Indians were in an ideal situation to leverage such depth -- but of course, to paraphrase a line from Barton Fink, you could throw a shoe at professional baseball in the late 90s -- early 00s and hit a slugging first baseman. It was a saturated market. For whatever reason I feel we've hit a down-cycle in terms of slugging first baseman these last few years. I was wondering if athleticism played a role. Perhaps the elite amateur left-handed slugger can now more than handle the outfield. (like Bellinger) But where have you gone Brad Fulmer? Remember when the Texas Rangers had Travis Hafner, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Pena and Teixeira in the organization within a couple of years of each other? How many teams currently have two first baseman on the roster with MLB caliber bats? There's Dom Smith moonlighting in left-field for the Mets. (he really should be a first baseman exclusively) The Padres should probably bench Hosmer for Will Myers. But Hosmer kinda stinks. And Myers stunk last year. Seth Beer is a prospect who could have a massive bat. But he's awful defensively. Andrew Vaughn went high in the draft to the White Sox, and Torkelson is supposed to be amazing. It'll be interesting to see if we ever cycle back to plentiful slugging first baseman / DH's, to the extent where they become undervalued again. I mean, a cheap 110 OPS+ first baseman is pretty valuable right now, whereas twenty years ago, you could probably easily find and acquire five or six guys like that blocked in AAA on various teams throughout the league. (not per team, but around the league)

My concern with Sanchez is more health related. He’s obviously a terrific hitter but poor defense

As a Yankees fan, I think this is a fair take. I've often wondered if they would have been better-off moving Sanchez to first-base following '17 or even '18 when it became clear that Bird could not stay healthy. Sanchez has a pretty special power bat. 34 homers last season (moon-ball caveat) in only 106 games played. The problem with moving Sanchez off catcher is that he shows flashes of being above-average defensively: let alone passable. His arm-strength is tremendous. (but did not throw out runners well last year) He's also shown competence at framing pitches, and was much better at blocking last year. It seems though that things never totally click. When he was throwing out base-stealers, his blocking was horrible. Then when his blocking improved, his pitch-framing and throwing declined. Plus the injuries. The Yankees hired a new catching coordinator during the offseason, and he had Sanchez in a new stance that was supposed to benefit his framing and throwing. Problem was that he came down with back soreness before the civilization ended. And there were a lot of questions about whether such a large human could physically withstand altering the catching mechanics he'd employed for his entire life. Overall Sanchez could probably be a 35+ homer player for four or five years if he stays healthy. And I think its a fair question whether he'll stay healthy at catcher, along with if the Yankees should keep playing him there. Obviously the reward for such a risk is an insanely valuable catcher. But that hasn't quite happened yet, despite some mean, injury-truncated production last year.

If I'm picking a catcher for the 20s, I might go with Luis Campusano, who only was in A+ last season, but seems like a pretty damn good prospect.

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