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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, November 27, 2019Why did the Orioles, who lost 108 games last year, just waive their most valuable position player?
The Orioles are a truly mismanaged team, aren’t they?
QLE
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 09:53 PM | 65 comment(s)
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1. Qufini Posted: November 27, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5904297)I'm not trolling here and I'm definitely not as sabery as most you here, can someone explain their reasoning behind this to me?
Villar would probably get around $10 million in arbitration, and was a 4 WAR player this year. Why would the Orioles spend $10 million to chase $2 million?
The Orioles, unlike Houston, do not play in a large Metro area and they need bodies to get back in the habit of showing up at Camden Yards. Baltimore has had urban unrest with too many city murders this year to feel comfortable about future attendance. When you are 28th in MLB attendance, you might error on the side of keeping a few bright lights.
The Os do not have any middle infield prospects in the system who seem like they will field, hit, hit with power or steal bases. Last season they played poor outfielders and better infielders. This is a move that will make pitching for the Os an ordeal for a very weak pitching staff.
1.6 - DET Niko Goodrum: last pre-arb year
2.6 - SEA Tom Murphy: last pre-arb year
2.7 - SEA Edwin Encarnacion: traded with cash during 2019 for minor leaguer, 2020 FA
2.7 - DET Nicholas Castellanos: traded with cash during 2019 for 2 minor leaguers, 2020 FA
2.8 - SFG Mike Yastrzemski: first pre-arb year
2.8 - TOR Cavan Biggio: first pre-arb year
3.0 - TEX Joey Gallo: 1st arb year
3.8 - MIA Brian Anderson: last pre-arb year
3.9 - PIT Bryan Reynolds: 2nd pre-arb year
4.0 - BAL Jonathan Villar: placed on waivers in final arb year
4.0 - KCR Whit Merrifield: 3/15.25-19.25 or 4/25-29
4.2 - SDP Fernando Tatis Jr: 2nd pre-arb year
4.2 - TBR Willy Adames: 2nd pre-arb year
4.4 - PHI JT Realmuto: final arb year
4.5 - CIN Eugenio Suarez: 5/56.2 or 6/69.2
4.6 - CHW Yoan Moncada: last pre-arb year
4.7 - CLE Francisco Lindor: 2nd arb year
4.7 - STL Kolten Wong: 1/11.25 or 2/22.75
4.8 - CHC Javier Baez: 2nd arb year
5.0 - NYM Pete Alonso: 2nd pre-arb year
5.0 - NYM Jeff McNeil: 2nd pre-arb year
5.7 - MIN Jorge Polanco: 4/22.92 or 5/32.42 or 6/43.67 with escalators
6.0 - NYY DJ LeMahieu: 1/12
6.1 - ATL Josh Donaldson: rejected QO
6.3 - WSN Anthony Rendon: rejected QO
6.4 - COL Trevor Story: 2nd arb year
6.8 - BOS Mookie Betts: final arb year
6.9 - ARI Ketel Marte: 3/21.2, 4/28.2 or 5/37.2
7.1 - MIL Christian Yelich: 2/27.75 or 3/41.5
8.1 - OAK Marcus Semien: final arb year
8.3 - LAA Mike Trout: 11/391.3
8.4 - HOU Alex Bregman: 5/100
9.0 - LAD Cody Bellinger: Super 2
Alex Bregman is tied for around 30th largest active contract for a position player and has the 2nd largest contract for a team position player WAR leader.
Right, but they can trade him without the waiver period at any time up until the non-tender deadline can't they? What is achieved by putting him on waivers that wouldn't be achieved by not doing anything?
It kinda fits with their team concept to loudly communicate how feckless, arbitrary and terrible they are.
This is someplace where the commissioner should step in for best interests reason. He should void any attempt by a team to ditch a good, fairly paid player just to save money.
Sounds like a good way to get fired.
That's why the commissioner was designed to be a lifetime appointment.
Baseball would have integrated far earlier had it been possible to fire Landis.
I assume it's fairly normal.
I don't think there's any evidence that most of the owners were any more pro-integration than Landis. This is Rob Neyer's take on the issue (ESPN through WIKI):
It's also highly likely that baseball would have had continued gambling scandals without Landis. If Comiskey could have gotten Landis fired, how long do you think he would have put up with losing most of his best players, while his team was mired in the 2nd division?
Are these two sentences related or are you suggesting that COmiskey would have tried his hand at fixing the world series? Cause I dont understand what you're saying here.
I'm saying that if Landis wasn't secure in his job, Comiskey would have gotten Jackson, Cicotte, Weaver and co. reinstated in short order, and more game fixing scandals would have followed.
2014
Pre-arb (5): Anthony Rendon 6.6, Jose Abreu 5.8, Juan Lagares 5.3, Brian Dozier 5.2, Yasiel Puig 5.1
Arb (12): Mike Trout 7.6, Josh Donaldson 7.5, Michael Brantley 6.7, Jonathan Lucroy 6.6, Giancarlo Stanton 6.5, Andrew McCutchen 6.1, Jose Altuve 6.1, Jason Heyward 5.8, Buster Posey 5.4, Todd Frazier 5.2, Anthony Rizzo 5.2, Paul Goldschmidt 4.6
FA (13): Jose Bautista 6.7, Adrian Beltre 6.7, Alex Gordon 6.5, Robinson Can 6.4, Jhonny Peralta 5.9, Steve Pearce 5.9, Ian Kinsler 5.8, Troy Tulowitzki 5.5, Ben Zobrist 5, Dustin Pedroia 4.7, Brett Gardner 3.9, Jimmy Rollins 3.9, Seth Smith 3.4
2009
Pre-arb (7): Joey Votto 4.8, Yunel Escobar 4.3, Pablo Sandoval 4.3, Justin Upton 4, Kurt Suzuki 3.4, Garrett Jones 3.3, Alexei Ramirez 2.4
Arb (16): Ben Zobrist 8.6, Joe Mauer 7.8, Hanley Ramirez 7.4, Ryan Zimmerman 7.3, Adrian Gonzalez 6.9, Kevin Youkilis 6.6, Franklin Gutierrez 6.6, Troy Tulowitzki 6.5, Prince Fielder 6.3, Ian Kinsler 6, Aaron Hill 5.8, Shin-Soo Choo 5.5, Michael Bourn 5, Matt Kemp 4.9, Angel Pagan 4, Alberto Callaspo 2.5
FA (7): Albert Pujols 9.7, Chase Utley 8.2, Chone Figgins 7.7, Derek Jeter 6.6, Derrek Lee 5.4, Miguel Cabrera 5.1, Brian Roberts 3
2004 (Ties: BOS Damon and Ortiz, TEX: Blalock and Teixeira)
Pre-arb (8): Orlando Hudson 5.2, Travis Hafner 5, Carl Crawford 4.9, Hank Blalock 4.6, Mark Teixeira 4.6, Lew Ford 4.5, David Wright 2.2, Chad Tracy 1.8
Arb (7): Ichiro Suzuki 9.2, Lance Berkman 6, Aaron Rowand 5.7, Brad Wilkerson 5.1, Jack Wilson 4.8, Adam Dunn 4.7, Brady Clark 2.1
FA (17): Barry Bonds 10.6, Adrian Beltre 9.6, Scott Rolen 9.2, Todd Helton 8.3, JD Drew 8.3, Alex Rodriguez 7.6, Miguel Tejada 7.4, Bobby Abreu 6.6, Mark Loretta 6, Vladimir Guerrero 5.6, Eric Chavez 5.5, Carlos Guillen 4.6, Aramis Ramirez 4.4, David Ortiz 4.3, Johnny Damon 4.3, Mike Lowell 4.3, Joe Randa 2.7
1999 (Ties: LAD Beltre and Karros, SEA Griffey and Edgar)
Pre-arb (4): Magglio Ordonez 5.8, Adrian Beltre 3.9, Troy Glaus 3.1, Corey Koskie 2.6
Arb (11): Derek Jeter 8, Andruw Jones 7.1, Brian Giles 6.7, Nomar Garciaparra 6.6, Bobby Abreu 6.1, Jason Giambi 5.9, Mike Cameron 5.5, Johnny Damon 5.4, Jeff Cirillo 4.8, Vladimir Guerrero 4.4, Luis Castillo 2.3
FA (17): Roberto Alomar 7.4, Jeff Bagwell 7.4, Robin Ventura 6.7, Ivan Rodriguez 6.4, Luis Gonzalez 6.4, Shawn Green 6.4, Brady Anderson 5.9, Mark McGwire 5.2, Larry Walker 5.1, Edgar Martinez 4.9, Ken Griffey Jr 4.9, Sammy Sosa 4.8, Reggie Sanders 4.1, Fred McGriff 4, Eric Karros 3.9, Barry Bonds 3.8, Brad Ausmus 3.4
1994 (Ties: BAL Palmeiro and Ripken, MON: Alou and Grissom, OAK Rickey and Javier)
Pre-arb (4): John Valentin 4.3, Mike Piazza 3.6, Bob Hamelin 2.6, Jose Valentin 2.5
Arb (10): Jeff Bagwell 8.2, Kenny Lofton 7.2, Ken Griffey Jr 6.9, Frank Thomas 6.4, Moises Alou 5.1, Marquis Grissom 5.1, Chuck Knoblauch 4.1, Sammy Sosa 3.8, Mark Whiten 3.1, Jeff Conine 2.9
FA (17): Barry Bonds 6.2, Tony Phillips 4.7, Fred McGriff 4.6, Wade Boggs 4.5, Tony Gwynn 4.2, Rafael Palmeiro 4, Barry Larkin 4, Cal Ripken Jr 4, Paul Molitor 3.6, Will Clark 3.6, Rickey Henderson 3.5, Stan Javier 3.5, Jay Bell 3.4, Chili Davis 3.1, Bobby Bonilla 2.8, Darren Daulton 2.5, Andres Galarraga 2
1989
Pre-arb (2): Ken Caminiti 4.9, Roberto Alomar 4.5
Arb (9): Will Clark 8.6, Barry Bonds 8, Fred McGriff 6.6, Ruben Sierra 5.9, Kirby Puckett 4.9, Devon White 4, Jerry Browne 3.8, Barry Larkin 3.8, Jim Eisenreich 3.1
FA (15): Lonnie Smith 8.8, Wade Boggs 8.4, Ozzie Smith 7.3, Howard Johnson 6.9, Cal Ripken Jr 6.7, Ryne Sandberg 6.1, Robin Yount 5.8, Lou Whitaker 5.3, Von Hayes 5.1, Carney Lansford 4.6, Steve Sax 4.4, Harold Reynolds 4.3, Tim Wallach 4.1, Willie Randolph 4.1, Carlton Fisk 3.3
1984
Pre-arb (4): Wade Boggs 6.3, Tony Gwynn 6.3, Don Mattingly 6.3, Alvin Davis 6
Arb (11): Cal Ripken Jr 10, Ryne Sandberg 8.6, Lloyd Moseby 7.3, Rickey Henderson 6, Tony Pena 5.9, Kent Hrbek 5.6, Chili Davis 5.1, Harold Baines 4.3, George Vukovich 4.1, Mike Scioscia 3.7, Eddie Milner 2.4
FA (11): Gary Carter 7.5, Mike Schmidt 7, Alan Trammell 6.7, Jose Cruz 6.3, Keith Hernandez 6.3, Buddy Bell 6.1, Robin Yount 5.9, Dale Murphy 5.6, Ozzie Smith 5, Willie Wilson 4.3, Fred Lynn 3.8
1979 (Tie: MIL Sixto and Molitor)
Pre-arb (3): Paul Molitor 5.6, Lou Whitaker 4.5, Dave Revering 1.8
Arb (10): Fred Lynn 8.9, Keith Hernandez 7.6, Gary Carter 6, Chet Lemon 5.8, Sixto Lezcano 5.6, Willie Randolph 5.3, Lee Mazzilli 4.9, Butch Wynegar 4.4, Leon Roberts 3.9, Jack Clark 3.5
FA (14): George Brett 8.6, Dave Winfield 8.3, Mike Schmidt 7.9, Buddy Bell 6.9, Dave Parker 6.7, Bobby Grich 6, Johnny Bench 5.6, Ken Singleton 5.3, Ron Cey 5.1, Jose Cruz 4.6, Gary Matthews 4.4, Dave Kingman 4.1, Bobby Bonds 3.5, Otto Velez 2.9
LOL, no.
If you're trying to signal that you *are* going to come to some sort of final arrangement with Villar rather than just dangling him before tendering him, then it is different. Big gamble, but it's what they're trying to do.
Most, no. Even in the early days of integration, it was just Rickey and Veeck. Veeck wanted to buy the Phillies and populate them with black players in the early 40's and Landis stopped him.
Uh, no. At the time of Robinson's signing, every other owner opposed integration. Veeck didn't become the Indians' owner until 1946, and no Commissioner in 1943 would've approved Veeck's stated plan for the Phillies. The only way he could've done it would've been to have shut up about it and then just done it once he got control of the team, as Rickey did with Robinson.
I'd be more comfortable with that if one of them was a LHB. I think you're locking in poor performance vs RHP if you go that route, and Villar's bat has been good only 2 of his 4 full seasons.
Man, when you're salary dumping to the Marlins, you've really hit rock bottom. Is there a 12 step program for sports franchises? If so, sign up the Jets too.
Bullshit. Anyone think Villar's salary will be re-invested in the team?
Meanwhile, the big score for the Orioles?
Could - possibly - with good development - project as a back-end starter.
so, i like this move for miami and dislike it for baltimore -- but, here's why i think this non-insane (this repeats rambles from another thread - and these are rambles versus a coherent argument):
- replacement level for second base is kinda high, higher than we use in war calculations (imo), and there are some good values plays on the middle infield reclamation/fa market if they wanna go that route
- villar is likely closer to a 2 war player than a 4 war player, i don't think you can count on him being a 20/40 guy going forward.
- baltimore can lose without him and one of the most valuable resources they have is pt to offer players to see what they can be.
- revealed preference: the market wasn't exactly hot for him either - everyone knew they could have him for a song and a song is all he cost (apologies to lucas, who had a decent debut for an org guy, but still looks like a likely org guy - hope i'm wrong)
that said,
- villar is likely to produce more value than he costs in salary. you generally want those players.
- he offers positional versatility. he played second and short last year and was solid in a flash of time in center in the past. he need not block anybody.
- though i'm pro-tanking, i think teams should sell excitement and hope, false or true. signalling too hard "we are going to be bad, don't waste your time" can be bad for the health of a franchise. villar helps here.
side note: miggy's miguel diaz note in #15? he was non-tendered yesterday. agree that that's the kind of player that would've made sense in a deal here; it's just funny.
He didn't specify that it's the team whose future is being prioritised.
How does it make sense for the Orioles to spend money on him?
They aren't signing his 2019 season. They are signing his 2020 season. If it was such a no-brainer, many teams would have traded for his services.
But more broadly: He is a good player. They are a bad team. Bad teams need good players to get better. If they acquired good players instead of the opposite, maybe they would be expected to win more than 60 games.
It seems like the money isn't going back into the team, so how does trading him for nothing make them better?
"Generally" nothing, that's the whole point of a baseball team. If you think he's going to bring in more revenue than he's going to cost, you want him on the team.
Maybe the Orioles were asking for too much in a trade. I am assuming the Marlins were one of the first teams with waiver priority, so it's not like a ton of teams passed on him.
Well, if they hadn't put him on waivers, that wouldn't have been a big issue.
"Generally" nothing, that's the whole point of a baseball team. If you think he's going to bring in more revenue than he's going to cost, you want him on the team.
Well, if more net revenue than the alternative - PT is a fixed asset. You could construct an argument that they should swing Alberto to more shortstop time (to maximixe his value) or go Rule 5 shopping again or...
All this said, I think Baltimore should have kept him, I'm playing devil's advocate here.
While that's probably true, baseball is better if all of its teams willingly participate in the shared fantasy that winning actually matters.
Huh, I am rather confused by this all.
Orioles put him on waivers which remove him from the 40-man roster, and then teams have a few days to decide whether to make a claim before any claims are processed. But the Orioles still have his rights and can trade him elsewhere during that time period, which nullifies all the waiver business.
If no trade had been worked out, and if no claims had been submitted, he would have become a free agent.
At that point, I think the Orioles would have either released him or offered him an outright assignment to AAA, and he would've had the choice between accepting that assignment and declining it in favor of free agency.
Yes. $75M in major league contracts or you lose revenue sharing money dollar for dollar.
I think you can always be offered an outright assignment, even if you're over the minimum of service time (as Villar is). You just don't have any obligation to accept it or any negative consequences for rejecting it.
Villar clearly wouldn't accept in this case, and I'm not sure that the Orioles would even choose to extend the offer. But it's still a step in the procedure.
I'd rather set it up as $75M in major league contracts or the current year salaries of all players on your 40-man roster are increased proportionally until the total value meets or exceeds $75M. Why should MLB as an institution keep that money, rather than it going to the players?
Sure, good change. Or contribute it the the pension fund.
well in theory they could be trying to build up their cash reserves with the idea of spending it down the road. I realize for teams e.g. PIT etc its a pipe dream but in theory its their money and their right to use it strategically.
Money received as revenue sharing is not the individual team's money. It is a subsidy to small markets to help them compete. If they choose not to try and compete, they shouldn't get the money.
Since MLB effectively has a salary cap today, it needs a floor.
A salary floor hurts ownership. From some perspectives revenue sharing with no salary floor is a good thing. It guarantees profits with no risk! That's fantastic! I'd go for it if I could find an investment that offered that (Bernie Madoff-style "investments" excluded). If you're going to advocate a salary floor you either need to suggest something that the players can give back (or advocate a strike); otherwise you're just complaining that you don't like it when franchises don't field competitive teams.
Yes, that's exactly what I am doing. It is bad for the sport to have a dozen teams a year actively trying to not compete. Refusing to sign/keep players who would make your team better just to save money. And I'm not saying every team needs a $30 million contract on the books. But there was no legitimate reason for a team like the Orioles to cut/trade a player like Villar. They could afford to keep him, and he made the team better.
In a capitalist society, all companies have the need to grow and consume until they encompass the entirety of human existence. It is their raison d'etre.
Shareholder value stomping on a human face, forever.
I'd meant realistic option (that he might accept it) - but what you said is fair and true.
Complaining, and also pointing out that it's bad for MLB as a whole. MLB with 10 teams not trying at all, is going to generate less revenue than MLB with everyone trying.
When the tanking teams attendance and ratings tumble, you don't get an equivalent increase for the 92 wins teams that now become 100 win teams, and the 98 win teams that become 108 win teams.
More parity (within broad limits) leads to more revenue.
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