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Friday, March 03, 2023

Why Has No One Signed Jurickson Profar Yet?

Let’s compare him to the aforementioned trio of Brantley, Drury, and Bell. In fact, Profar is quite comparable to Brantley and Bell, who both play a position down the defensive spectrum. Both are also considerably better hitters than Profar. Brantley’s wRC+ hasn’t sat below 120 in five years, while Bell’s mark sits at 121 since the beginning of 2021. On the other hand, Profar’s 110 wRC+ last year was his highest in a full season, and his career mark of 94 is substantially worse than that of Brantley or Bell. Other outfielders like J.D. Martinez and Michael Conforto also signed in that price range. In other words, if a team was looking for an everyday left fielder who wouldn’t break the bank, Profar probably wouldn’t have been their first call.

If teams weren’t interested in Profar in an everyday role, then what about bringing him on as a part-time player? While Profar was exclusively a left fielder last year, he has significant experience at all four infield positions. Surely a league-average bat you can plug and play at five different positions would be useful to a contending team. Last season’s Phillies nearly won the World Series despite letting Didi Gregorius (58 wRC+) and Johan Camargo (74 wRC+) combine for almost 400 plate appearances, and nearly every other team has deficiencies at least somewhere on the field. Drury’s two-year, $17 million contract with the Angels shows the value teams place in a multi-positional skill set. Despite entering 2022 with just 0.6 career WAR, Drury experienced a power breakout, clubbing 28 homers and accruing 3 WAR despite not having a dedicated starting position. Instead, he took over wherever he was needed, appearing at five different positions as the Reds and Padres did everything they could to maximize his presence in the batting order.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 03, 2023 at 05:31 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jurickson profar

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   1. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: March 03, 2023 at 08:01 PM (#6119437)
Because he has murdered -- brutally, remorselessly and with his bare hands -- dozens of people who made fun of his name.
   2. GregD Posted: March 03, 2023 at 09:03 PM (#6119450)
No one who has watched him play would worry about anything that he's trying to catch in his hands.
   3. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: March 04, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6119491)
Oof.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: March 04, 2023 at 06:31 PM (#6119516)
Because they know Jurickson Profar couldn't possibly be a real name.

So what's his nickname anyway? Rick? Pro? Profie?

Many moons ago, Loyola (Chicago) made the tourney with star scorer Alfredrick Hughes. A teammate was asked what they called him. "Some of the guys call him Al, some call him Rick. Nobody has the guts to call him Fred."
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: March 04, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6119517)
Because he has murdered -- brutally, remorselessly and with his bare hands -- dozens of people who made fun of his name.

and yet Rougned Odor signed a deal with the Padres just 3 days ago (yes, really - only the paperwork remains).
   6. John Reynard Posted: March 04, 2023 at 09:52 PM (#6119523)
The most likely explanation is that he or his agent over-estimated demand for his OKish services and asked for too much money or security.
   7. Cooper Nielson Posted: March 04, 2023 at 09:59 PM (#6119524)
Many moons ago, Loyola (Chicago) made the tourney with star scorer Alfredrick Hughes. A teammate was asked what they called him. "Some of the guys call him Al, some call him Rick. Nobody has the guts to call him Fred."

Rick Porcello's full name is Frederick Alfred Porcello, and no one calls him Fred either. What's wrong with "Fred"?
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: March 04, 2023 at 10:31 PM (#6119525)
I think the article overrates the need for contenders to want someone like Profar, but at the same time there are probably 10+ teams who can use him as a gap fill type of player. The article implies that competitive teams could use him, and when I think of competitive teams, outside of the one example the article gave, I'm not sure how many teams are willing to spend for a corner outfielder that produces just about average offense. He's not an asset to a real competitor, he's an asset to a borderline team to provide a bit of certainty. Even a team like the Cubs would be better served by not signing him and letting the talent they have work their way to the lineup.

Of course he did have a career year last year, so it's worth a flier, the Royals or someone like that would be smart to make the signing, the issue might be that his agent is asking for too much.

Edit: note it wouldn't surprise me at all that Profar has a second half resurgence in his career, he's a well touted young player who hasn't exactly stunk up the place, just didn't realize his potential. He might end up becoming the next good full time surprise player like Jose Bautista (yes I get that it's a stretch, but look at Bautista 2004 to 2009 years and compare it to Profar career so far---obviously that is a best case scenario, but my point is that it's not out of the range of possibility)
   9. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 04, 2023 at 11:10 PM (#6119527)
So what's his nickname anyway? Rick? Pro? Profie?
J-Pro, duh.
   10. BDC Posted: March 05, 2023 at 11:20 AM (#6119543)
The Rangers recently signed Robbie Grossman to be fourth-OF insurance, also a switch-hitter, older, in decline. Of course Grossman signed for 1/$2M and TFA suggests that Profar should merit a lot more than that.

Speaking of journeymen, the Rangers just DFA'd Mark Mathias, in a move that seems odd. Mathias hit for an OPS of .940 in AAA last year and then .919 in 24 games for the Rangers; he is younger than either Grossman or Profar. Maybe there is some injury issue with Mathias that hasn't been publicized.
   11. bookbook Posted: March 05, 2023 at 12:47 PM (#6119548)
it wouldn't surprise me at all that Profar has a second half resurgence in his career


I was there, too, but his underlying numbers weren’t good in 2022. Despite the pedigree, the smart money is betting that last year was more fluke than breakthrough.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: March 05, 2023 at 01:37 PM (#6119557)
Even a team like the Cubs

Even? Even? :-)

But yes. I looked the other day and the Cubs currently have 20 position players on the 40-man which is a lot these days. In addition to the starters Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki and DH/1B/OF Trey Mancini and IF/maybe OF Christopher Morel, the Cubs have Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Nick Velazquez and Alexander Canario (just 19, not sure he needed to be on the 40-man but there he is). No guarantee any of them are as good as Profar but they're gonna find out.

Jose Guillen might be a more realistic version of Profar's "upside" but yes, you never know when one of these guys is going to put it together to be a solid everyday player (or much, much better a la Edwin Encarnacion, J Turner, Donaldson to go with Bautista). As to contenders needing him .... the Dodgers ended up using Trayce Thompson for 240 PA and he seems to be locked in for a substantial role this year. He's been around forever, is 32 and was arb-eligible for the first time this year ($1.45).
   13. Walt Davis Posted: March 05, 2023 at 04:52 PM (#6119574)
Before Mama Velazquez panics, her son Nelson is still on the Cubs' 40-man and has not changed his name to Nick.

EDIT: And double d'oh, it's Alcantara who's 19, Canario is 22. I can't keep all these guys straight.
   14. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 05, 2023 at 06:29 PM (#6119578)
How many years in the organization until a player has to be put on the 40 man or risk rule 5? Alcantara has been in the cubs org since 2019. He missed 2020, but that's still 4 years ( 3 seasons).
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: March 05, 2023 at 06:34 PM (#6119580)
How many years in the organization until a player has to be put on the 40 man or risk rule 5? Alcantara has been in the cubs org since 2019. He missed 2020, but that's still 4 years


per mlb website

Held each December, the Rule 5 Draft allows clubs without a full 40-man roster to select certain non-40-man roster players from other clubs. Clubs draft in reverse order of the standings from the previous season. Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.
   16. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: March 05, 2023 at 06:43 PM (#6119582)
Thanks. So, assuming 2020 counts, this is his 5th season with the Cubs. 2019-2023. And it must, or else why else would he be on the 40 man? Not sure anyone would want him on their ML roster all season, he has one pretty good season at A ball, but I guess they are not taking any chances.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: March 05, 2023 at 09:22 PM (#6119593)
That's my issue with the way that rule is written on that website which I've seen before ... "within five seasons" is unclear. Assuming 2019 counts as a full season, that's 4 seasons and adding him anytime this season would be "within five seasons" as I would normally understand that phrase, meaning the Cubs need to add him before the end of the season (or before the next rule 5 maybe). "Prior to their 5th season" would be much clearer. (Signed by the Yanks by the way, picked up in the Rizzo trade in 2021.)

Per the net, Alcantara was signed in 2018 after turning 16 in July that year. So maybe 2018 counts as his first "season" even though he didn't play.

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