Why Rob Manfred’s job isn’t in danger as MLB heads toward a lockout—and what it would take to change that

That, fittingly, brings us back to Manfred. The only way he could lose his job is by losing money for owners. There’s a couple of paths toward such an outcome. One could be failing to maintain or even carve out new economic territory for the management side during the ongoing negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement. The players are mobilized, unified, and armed with an aggressive wish list after years of seeing their share of revenues pruned down. It’s possible they’ll come away from the table with a win, provided they win what seems like the inevitable staredown—i.e., a likely lockout by owners should no new agreement be reached by the time the current one expires on Dec. 1.

That said, Manfred has a post-Fay Vincent lack of autonomy as commissioner, and the idea that he’d force through an agreement that’s not to the liking of most owners is far-fetched in the extreme (he also has an extensive background in labor negotiations, including during his time as one of Selig’s lieutenants). You can bet anything Manfred does toward advancing an agreement will have the imprimatur of the owners upon it. Moreover, Manfred isn’t even the lead negotiator for the club side. That’s deputy commissioner Dan Halem. In that sense, there’s a possible buffer between Manfred and accountability for any losses at the conference table.