Darin Ruf's regression also hasn't helped (from 143 OPS+ in 312 PA in 2021 to 97 OPS+ in 314 PA in 2022; 3.5 WAR difference). DeSclafani also went from a 130 ERA+ in 167.2 innings last year to a 63 ERA+ in 19 innings this year.

Giants winning percentages over the last 5 years: .451, .475, .483, .660, .475. I feel like if you presented this list to Sesame Street, they would reject it for being too easy to find the one that doesn't belong.

Also, it probably doesn't help that last year's starting lineup had one player under 30, as did the starting rotation.

They got career years from a number of players, but even more than that they got the key hit every time they needed it.

Hmmm ... Joey Bart has really turned his season around. Shipped out on June 4 with a 596 OPS, he was back about a month later ... took him a few days to get going but since July 12, he's hit 304/333/527. Too many Ks, not enough BBs and an unsustainable 380 BABIP but better than a 600 OPS.

Weirdly, a lot of their moves worked -- Pederson, mid-season add JD Davis, call-up David Villar, Rodon, Cobb and Longoria's hitting again (and missing time again). By DRS, Olney's right about the defense -- even Pederson is a bit below average overall which is tough to do on a 142 OPS+.

And yet the Giants opened the 2022 season at +2800 (or 29 to 1), better then 17 other teams' odds.
https://www.thelines.com/odds/world-series/

a case of recency bias. The article here, pretty much everyone says "oh yeah we knew this was coming"

Darin Ruf's regression also hasn't helped (from 143 OPS+ in 312 PA in 2021 to 97 OPS+ in 314 PA in 2022; 3.5 WAR difference).

Don't worry, he's stinking it up on the Mets now.

Yes

Ruf 2022 OPS+

Giants 97
Mets 9 (not a typo)

The answers to this question were for me the most intriguing:

What is one move you would make this offseason if you were running the Giants?

Doolittle: This team has the resources to spend big and if there is one thing I'd splurge on, it would be that big run-producing slugger that Gabe Kapler can just pencil in and leave alone. And, yes, Aaron Judge is the first name that leaps to mind.

Gonzalez: Sign Aaron Judge. The Giants have the financial resources -- and Farhan Zaidi has the wherewithal -- to supplement the major league team while building up the farm system. And both are necessary right now. The Giants need much more than just Judge, of course; they need a first baseman, a third baseman, some bullpen help, and they'd probably like to re-sign Carlos Rodon. But Judge headlining an offense that can mix and match with the best of them when the pieces are right would instantly make this team a threat.

Keown: If we're talking overall philosophy -- which we're not, but whatever -- the Giants need to commit to getting younger and more athletic. This may mean coming to the harsh realization that a short-term rebuild may be in order. If Farhan Zaidi is not interested in that approach, he'll have to employ his skills of persuasion to get the team owners to open the checkbook wide for Northern California native Aaron Judge. I'm betting on the rebuild.

Olney: I'm echoing the chorus here: Aaron Judge. He would give them everything they need in the moment -- a face of the franchise, a power hitter, a leader, someone who will help to sell tickets.

Ruf 2022 OPS+
Giants 97
Mets 9 (not a typo)

I blame the Cubs for ####### up our season and refusing to reasonably trade Contreras.

And yet the Giants opened the 2022 season at +2800 (or 29 to 1), better then 17 other teams' odds.
https://www.thelines.com/odds/world-series/

a case of recency bias. The article here, pretty much everyone says "oh yeah we knew this was coming"

A team that won 107 games was regarded as basically average by the bettors. Seems like they knew quite well that 2021's performance was totally unsustainable.

Mets 9 (not a typo)

I didn't think it was a typo, Howie, only that you forgot a second digit. (smile)

The truly bizarre thing is, not only did that that Giants team win 107 games or whatever, they didn't wildly outperform their underlying stats -- a pythag of 103-59. But if you look at the individual guys on that roster, you think, "How did this collection of has-beens and never-weres outscore their opponents by 220 runs?"

What team would NOT be improved by a massive Judge injection?

They'll need to just slightly heat up these last few weeks to get there, but Kapler's got a good shot at making it 4 out of 5 seasons as a manager finishing within two games of .500. The 5th season being, of course, very possibly the biggest single season fluke in baseball history.

Reminds me of the football coach Jeff Fisher, about whom it was quite accurately said that you could give him 4-12 talent and he'd go 8-8 with it, and you could give him 12-4 talent and he'd go 8-8 with it. But he had a couple of 13-3 fluke seasons, too, over his long career.