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Sunday, September 11, 2022

Why San Francisco Giants have gone from 107 wins to sub-.500

Keown: This is what happens when a team built on depth no longer has it. Gabe Kapler is mixing-and-matching and playing the percentages just as he did last year, but the system-wide lack of production—up and down the lineup, in the bullpen—turned last season’s alchemy into this season’s futility.

Olney: In 2021, future Hall of Famer Buster Posey had one of the best seasons of his career—and then retired; at 34, Brandon Crawford had his best offensive showing ever; a 33-year-old Brandon Belt bashed 29 homers and posted an OPS just under 1.000. And all three were very strong defensively. If you didn’t expect a significant regression, well, you weren’t paying attention, and the Giants have taken a big step back, especially on defense.

Gonzalez: The bullpen is certainly among the most prominent reasons. The Giants’ relief corps went from either first or second in the majors in ERA, WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio last year to the bottom third in all three of those categories this year. No man personifies that better than Jake McGee, who went from being a lights-out co-closer in 2021 to released at midseason in 2022. Tyler Rogers, who shared ninth-inning duties with McGee, also took a step back, as did Dominic Leone. It should be noted, however, that the Giants’ bullpen benefited from plenty of batted-ball luck last year and is not doing so this year.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 11, 2022 at 05:58 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants

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   1. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: September 11, 2022 at 08:27 PM (#6095791)
Darin Ruf's regression also hasn't helped (from 143 OPS+ in 312 PA in 2021 to 97 OPS+ in 314 PA in 2022; 3.5 WAR difference). DeSclafani also went from a 130 ERA+ in 167.2 innings last year to a 63 ERA+ in 19 innings this year.
   2. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: September 11, 2022 at 08:34 PM (#6095793)
Giants winning percentages over the last 5 years: .451, .475, .483, .660, .475. I feel like if you presented this list to Sesame Street, they would reject it for being too easy to find the one that doesn't belong.

Also, it probably doesn't help that last year's starting lineup had one player under 30, as did the starting rotation.
   3. Mefisto Posted: September 11, 2022 at 10:17 PM (#6095798)
They got career years from a number of players, but even more than that they got the key hit every time they needed it.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: September 12, 2022 at 01:00 AM (#6095802)
Hmmm ... Joey Bart has really turned his season around. Shipped out on June 4 with a 596 OPS, he was back about a month later ... took him a few days to get going but since July 12, he's hit 304/333/527. Too many Ks, not enough BBs and an unsustainable 380 BABIP but better than a 600 OPS.

Weirdly, a lot of their moves worked -- Pederson, mid-season add JD Davis, call-up David Villar, Rodon, Cobb and Longoria's hitting again (and missing time again). By DRS, Olney's right about the defense -- even Pederson is a bit below average overall which is tough to do on a 142 OPS+.
   5. TomH Posted: September 12, 2022 at 09:09 AM (#6095814)
And yet the Giants opened the 2022 season at +2800 (or 29 to 1), better then 17 other teams' odds.

a case of recency bias. The article here, pretty much everyone says "oh yeah we knew this was coming"
   6. Lassus Posted: September 12, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6095817)
Darin Ruf's regression also hasn't helped (from 143 OPS+ in 312 PA in 2021 to 97 OPS+ in 314 PA in 2022; 3.5 WAR difference).

Don't worry, he's stinking it up on the Mets now.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2022 at 10:13 AM (#6095818)

Ruf 2022 OPS+

Giants 97
Mets 9 (not a typo)
   8. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 12, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6095822)
The answers to this question were for me the most intriguing:
What is one move you would make this offseason if you were running the Giants?
Doolittle: This team has the resources to spend big and if there is one thing I'd splurge on, it would be that big run-producing slugger that Gabe Kapler can just pencil in and leave alone. And, yes, Aaron Judge is the first name that leaps to mind.

Gonzalez: Sign Aaron Judge. The Giants have the financial resources -- and Farhan Zaidi has the wherewithal -- to supplement the major league team while building up the farm system. And both are necessary right now. The Giants need much more than just Judge, of course; they need a first baseman, a third baseman, some bullpen help, and they'd probably like to re-sign Carlos Rodon. But Judge headlining an offense that can mix and match with the best of them when the pieces are right would instantly make this team a threat.

Keown: If we're talking overall philosophy -- which we're not, but whatever -- the Giants need to commit to getting younger and more athletic. This may mean coming to the harsh realization that a short-term rebuild may be in order. If Farhan Zaidi is not interested in that approach, he'll have to employ his skills of persuasion to get the team owners to open the checkbook wide for Northern California native Aaron Judge. I'm betting on the rebuild.

Olney: I'm echoing the chorus here: Aaron Judge. He would give them everything they need in the moment -- a face of the franchise, a power hitter, a leader, someone who will help to sell tickets.
   9. Lassus Posted: September 12, 2022 at 12:14 PM (#6095824)
Ruf 2022 OPS+
Giants 97
Mets 9 (not a typo)

I blame the Cubs for ####### up our season and refusing to reasonably trade Contreras.
   10. Baldrick Posted: September 12, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6095829)
And yet the Giants opened the 2022 season at +2800 (or 29 to 1), better then 17 other teams' odds.

a case of recency bias. The article here, pretty much everyone says "oh yeah we knew this was coming"

A team that won 107 games was regarded as basically average by the bettors. Seems like they knew quite well that 2021's performance was totally unsustainable.
   11. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: September 12, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6095830)
Mets 9 (not a typo)
I didn't think it was a typo, Howie, only that you forgot a second digit. (smile)
   12. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 12, 2022 at 05:53 PM (#6095872)
The truly bizarre thing is, not only did that that Giants team win 107 games or whatever, they didn't wildly outperform their underlying stats -- a pythag of 103-59. But if you look at the individual guys on that roster, you think, "How did this collection of has-beens and never-weres outscore their opponents by 220 runs?"
   13. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: September 12, 2022 at 07:10 PM (#6095875)
What team would NOT be improved by a massive Judge injection?
   14. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 13, 2022 at 12:56 AM (#6095913)
They'll need to just slightly heat up these last few weeks to get there, but Kapler's got a good shot at making it 4 out of 5 seasons as a manager finishing within two games of .500. The 5th season being, of course, very possibly the biggest single season fluke in baseball history.

Reminds me of the football coach Jeff Fisher, about whom it was quite accurately said that you could give him 4-12 talent and he'd go 8-8 with it, and you could give him 12-4 talent and he'd go 8-8 with it. But he had a couple of 13-3 fluke seasons, too, over his long career.

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