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Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Why Teams Wait To Make Trades

Teams looking to make a playoff push are waiting for the market to expand. Depending on how you look at it, there are only six to eight obvious sellers right now, and many of them don’t have much of interest on the available menu. There are an equal amount of teams on the bubble in late June, and these are teams with better rosters full of plenty of players that winning clubs would like to have. The Cubs and Giants, who were seen as two of those bubble teams entering the year, are loaded with excellent players on expiring contracts, but at this point, they’re buyers.

But even with those options off the table, there are plenty of very good players who are not available today but might be two to four weeks from now. What if the Angels go cold and are suddenly willing to talk about Alex Cobb and Andrew Heaney? Are there scenarios where another losing streak for the Nationals makes (gulp) Max Scherzer available?


Even while trying to remain patient to see if more players become available, buyers stay in close contact with those already in sell mode to try to ensure that if they miss out on an early deal, they won’t be taken by surprise. “Hey, we’re not ready to move now, but if you are getting ready to deal the player, please check in with us first,” is a consistent message relayed to selling teams. That allows a buying team to hold off on making a decision about ending their waiting game until absolutely necessary. Sellers are usually more than happy to comply; if they have an acceptable offer on the table and are ready to move, why not shop it around to see if you can get something better before logging into eBIS and submitting the deal?

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 23, 2021 at 11:02 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: trades

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 24, 2021 at 12:17 AM (#6026061)
Are there scenarios where another losing streak for the Nationals makes (gulp) Max Scherzer available?
The Nationals current 9-1 surge is pushing them more toward the buyers camp. Still a lot of time to the deadline, but I doubt Scherzer becomes available.
   2. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: June 24, 2021 at 12:50 AM (#6026066)
I've never understood why more sellers don't sell sooner, like when the Indians traded Justice to the Yankees at the end of June in '01 (for the law firm of Ledee, Day & Westbrook). Just makes more sense to me to move the impact guys earlier and gain the extra trade value from an extra month with the acquiring team. Setup-type reliever? Sure, let the market drive up the price as demand increases. But a guy like Trevor Story? Find who wants him now.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:49 AM (#6026080)
My guess is they get lowballed early on, and the offers improve as teams get more desperate?
   4. Walt Davis Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:05 AM (#6026083)
#2 ... I think you've got that backwards. There's no particular advantage to a seller selling early and the only way they can speed up the process is by accepting less in return now than they can get later. If a buyer wants to move early, they can by making a better offer than other teams are likely to make now or in a month. But sure, there's not much reason for the Twins to hang onto Cruz for another 5 weeks.
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:35 AM (#6026090)
There's no particular advantage to a seller selling early
The advantage would be that what they are selling has more on-field value.
   6. sanny manguillen Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:47 AM (#6026093)
When the Pirates tore things down 15 years ago, nearly every trade was near the deadline. This time around, the deals have come in the offseason under both Huntington and Cherington. I think they got burned a couple times where a hot July got them within striking distance of a playoff spot, so they couldn't trade veterans who really should have been dealt. More recently, I think they're afraid of players having big years that might drop them from a top three draft pool to a top eight pool.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#6026098)
The advantage would be that what they are selling has more on-field value.


Also you avoid the risk of injury. I remember David DeJesus was having a career year in his walk year, and the Royals were engaged in talks with the Red Sox to try to get Jed Lowrie or Josh Reddick. Then DeJesus broke his wrist and missed the next 2 months, and they missed their window. I think especially for pitchers, you may be motivated to move a guy earlier rather than later.

Just makes more sense to me to move the impact guys earlier and gain the extra trade value from an extra month with the acquiring team.


Well it doesn't make more sense for the seller unless they get more value. It may make more sense for the buyer to make a move early to get more value, especially since if you do have a losing streak, you can always try to flip that guy in July. But I suspect teams want to know for sure if they are "in it" or not before making a move.
   8. The Duke Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:25 AM (#6026102)
It’s awfully hard to know if you are are aren’t in contention. The cardinals were in first place and playing well for a number of weeks and then collapsed. The senators (sorry that’s just a better name ) looked like they were dead and now are hot. Even the day-backs were a.500 team 30 games into the season. A lot can happen in a month. You need time to sort the wheat from the chaff
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6026104)
Even while trying to remain patient to see if more players become available, buyers stay in close contact with those already in sell mode to try to ensure that if they miss out on an early deal, they won’t be taken by surprise. “Hey, we’re not ready to move now, but if you are getting ready to deal the player, please check in with us first,” is a consistent message relayed to selling teams. That allows a buying team to hold off on making a decision about ending their waiting game until absolutely necessary. Sellers are usually more than happy to comply; if they have an acceptable offer on the table and are ready to move, why not shop it around to see if you can get something better before logging into eBIS and submitting the deal?

but enough about Rotsisserie League baseball...

(I'm a seller who was fortunate to make the only major player dump, back in late May. that owner was on the cusp of taking a large lead over what had been a tight pack, and the market has almost completely dried up as the few possible contenders are owners who are reluctant to take chances - same sort of thing that can happen in MLB. "There's no particular advantage to a seller selling early" was not written by a fantasy baseball owner.)
   10. Buck Coats Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:51 AM (#6026106)
I think they got burned a couple times where a hot July got them within striking distance of a playoff spot


Lucky for the Pirates there's no risk of that this year
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 24, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6026126)
There's no particular advantage to a seller selling early
in addition to the potential benefits already mentioned, there would be salary savings on some players, always a concern for the particularly tight-fisted teams. Lots of reasons to wait for the deadline, too, but it’s always good to explore all options.

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