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Friday, March 26, 2021

Why the Mets lineup can be ‘holy crap’ terrifying: Sherman

“Jeff McNeil is hitting sixth. Do you know how good your freaking lineup is when Jeff McNeil is hitting sixth?”

The quote is from a top NL executive when asked a simple question: What do you like about this Mets team?

The executive added: “They were hard to pitch to last year, and they just replaced [Amed] Rosario and [Wilson] Ramos with [Francisco] Lindor and [James] McCann.”

The executive offered two other words: “Holy crap!”

This enthusiasm led me to two other questions: Is this the best lineup in New York (you know, Mets vs. Yankees) and does this have a chance to be the best Mets offense ever?

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 09:48 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. flournoy Posted: March 26, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6010246)
They might be even better than the last time I remember the media anointing them as the best team ever!
   2. Adam Starblind Posted: March 26, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6010248)
They might be even better than the last time I remember the media anointing them as the best team ever!


I was so excited and disappointed by the return of David Cone.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6010276)
They also have really poor defenders in LF and at 3B and a corner outfielder in CF.
   4. Adam Starblind Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6010277)
They also have really poor defenders in LF and at 3B and a corner outfielder in CF.


Davis and Smith are alarming, but Nimmo has kept his defense to merely below average thus far.
   5. Lassus Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6010281)
I am assuming the lineup is in the best shape of its life.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:41 PM (#6010283)
The failure to turn Smith into some sort of CF is the biggest head scratcher of the off-season.
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6010288)

They had an OPS+ of 120 last season and 109 (non-pitchers) the year before that. And as TFE notes, they replaced Rosario with Lindor. (I don't see McCann as a huge upgrade but would love to be surprised there.) So the offense should be good. But will the pitching and defense be good enough? I expect them to be in the mix for the division but not the clear favorite like some people seem to think.

2021 ZIPS OPS+

C McCann - 92
1B Alonso - 132
2B McNeill - 125
3B Davis - 108
SS Lindor - 122
OF Conforto - 130
OF Nimmo - 122
OF D Smith - 117
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 02:58 PM (#6010291)

2021 ZIPS OPS+

C McCann - 92
1B Alonso - 132
2B McNeill - 125
3B Davis - 108
SS Lindor - 122
OF Conforto - 130
OF Nimmo - 122
OF D Smith - 117


It's hard for me to believe they can tolerate having Smith and Davis in the field at the same time very often.
   9. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 26, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6010293)
Dodgers say lmao
   10. Adam Starblind Posted: March 26, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6010296)
The Dodgers' OPS+ last year was an extraordinary 1 point higher than the Mets'.
   11. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6010320)
It's hard for me to believe they can tolerate having Smith and Davis in the field at the same time very often.

I expect the Mets will do their usual thing of giving a surprisingly large number of PA to bad utility players, so yeah they’ll avoid playing those two together a fair amount. Here’s also hoping that replacing Rosario with Lindor helps make up for some of the shortcomings on the left side of the defense when Davis is playing.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 05:28 PM (#6010323)
I expect the Mets will do their usual thing of giving a surprisingly large number of PA to bad utility players, so yeah they’ll avoid playing those two together a fair amount.

Well, you can't let Smith and Davis give away 40-50 runs on D. Their bats aren't that good.

   13. JJ1986 Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6010331)
The failure to turn Smith into some sort of CF is the biggest head scratcher of the off-season.
There will probably be a DH next year. And I'm not sure Alonso is better than Smith.
   14. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:36 PM (#6010336)
bad utility players
Jonathan Villar is a pretty decent-sized step up from the usual dreck.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 26, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6010338)
There will probably be a DH next year. And I'm not sure Alonso is better than Smith.

Well, you can't be sure, but it's silly to let 200 PA change your opinion of a hitter. Alonso has hit better than Smith at every level they've played.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: March 27, 2021 at 01:06 AM (#6010378)
The failure to turn Smith into some sort of CF is the biggest head scratcher of the off-season.

But what sort? Smith has hit quite well the last two years but remains a 26-yo 1B with fewer than 750 career PA, somewhat platooned (fairly standard platoon split but it's just 157 PA vs LHP). He might be a much better hitter than Schwarber (for example) or he might not. But presumably you mean somethng more than Jake Marisnick who you had last year and got only $l.5 M this year. Maybe Mallex Smith with a career high of 127 starts but overall average thanks to strong baserunning? Manny Margot in 2019 certainly cost less than Dom Smith and is pretty much what the Mets need. TB probably has too many Dom Smith types but probably none are as good as he is. If you want to eat some salary, maybe Kiermaier is available.
   17. Howie Menckel Posted: March 27, 2021 at 01:41 AM (#6010380)
CF Pillar and UT Villar will play a lot.

the Mets have zero enthusiasm for playing JD Davis a lot at 3B. don't be surprised if Guillorme - who can field and had a 139 OPS+ in 68 PA in 2020 - grabs the gig.

ex-Cardinal Jose Martinez may mash lefties once he returns from the IL. they have Almora and Khalil Lee.

I realize that after almost 60 years, it's hard to imagine that if the Mets finally, finally hit - then there's no way they can also play any defense.

but it's possible.
   18. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: March 29, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6010570)
They might be even better than the last time I remember the media anointing them as the best team ever!
That's a wild confluence of 34/35 year old ballplayers, all wearing the same t-shirt. Well, occasionally.
   19. dejarouehg Posted: March 29, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6010573)
There will probably be a DH next year. And I'm not sure Alonso is better than Smith.


If the Alonso of spring training - laying off non-competitive pitches - is the real deal, then I'd have to say Alonso is better. But, if I had to bet on who is likely to be a more consistent, solid hitter, I'd go with Smith. I think what he did last year is less of a fluke than Alonso's rookie year. (Hope I'm completely off base about Alonso.)

As much as I hate the DH I was hoping for the Mets that it would happen so that Dom could play first and Alonso would DH.

Bottom line, would love to see both of them locked up for a long time to stay in Flushing, certainly more so than Conforto.

I would also start Pillar over Nimmo. Then again, I think David Peterson is the second best starter on the team now.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 29, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6010574)
But, if I had to bet on who is likely to be a more consistent, solid hitter, I'd go with Smith. I think what he did last year is less of a fluke than Alonso's rookie year.

What are you basing this on? Smith looked better last year b/c he had a .368 BABIP and Alonso was at .242. Alonso's peripheral stats, and EV didn't decline.
   21. dejarouehg Posted: March 29, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6010581)
Alonso reminded me of Sammy Sosa back in the day, continually chasing pitches low and away, refusing or unable to let them pass. The holes in his swing were magnified and he was easy to pitch to.
   22. PreservedFish Posted: March 29, 2021 at 03:10 PM (#6010583)
Um, Sammy Sosa hit like 600 homeruns.
   23. dejarouehg Posted: March 29, 2021 at 03:27 PM (#6010587)
Um, Sammy Sosa hit like 600 homeruns.
I initially wrote in Javy Baez but decided to go with Sosa because they are similar types of hitters. I would love for Alonso to have a Sosa career, bad pitch chasing and all. That said, Alonso (like Baez - and Bryant - last year) was constantly chasing non-competitive pitches.

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