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Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Why The Mets Might Actually Be Good

If we rank off base runs’ expectations instead of the actual numbers, New York still ranks 28th in scoring but easily has the best run-prevention corps in MLB — a full half-run better than the No. 2 Dodgers. Those numbers give the Mets MLB’s fifth-best expected winning percentage according to base runs — placing them in contending territory alongside the Tampa Bay Rays and resurgent Houston Astros, rather than merely being just another decent ballclub. (They also rank fifth in OPS differential — another metric designed to convert a team’s underlying stats into a stable measure of team performance.)

Base runs can be useful in the middle of a season because it uses more information than simple wins and losses or even run differential, giving us a better picture of how a team has been playing after stripping away the luck of sequencing and performances in close games. Though the Mets may not fully fit their runs scored and allowed to base runs’ expectations over the rest of the season, it’s a good bet they’ll move some in that direction — and win more as a result.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:08 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: June 08, 2021 at 08:39 AM (#6023148)
I am not sure they are good but they might be less bad than other NL East teams.
   2. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#6023149)
If healthy, I think they can actually be good. But yeah right now they're just a decent team in a relatively weak division. Which is fine.

I expected them to be an 85-90 win team that might eke out a playoff spot, and that seems to be what's happening despite all of the injuries. What I didn't anticipate was the big improvement in defense this year. Lindor plays a big part in that, as well as some of the injuries (I like J.D. Davis' bat but he really should be on an AL team or playing 1B somewhere).
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: June 08, 2021 at 09:38 AM (#6023156)
yes, the ReplaceMets for the most part are very good defensively.

it's bizarre watching a Sandy Alderson-directed Mets team make remarkably smart plays in the field.
   4. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: June 08, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6023157)
deGrom/Stroman/Walker have combined for a 1.77 ERA in 183 IP as well. deGrom is great and the other guys are talented but that's not sustainable.
   5. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 10:12 AM (#6023165)
Right, the pitchers are not really this good (that includes the bullpen) and the hitters are not really this bad. If the pitchers regress and we don't get some of McNeil/Conforto/Nimmo back in the lineup, and Lindor continues to put up an 83 OPS+, etc., then this team will not be very good. We should consider ourselves lucky that we have made it to this point in the season with a 29-23 record given all of the injuries. They had two walk-off fielder's choices by a 27-year-old rookie, a walk-off HBP that should have been called a strike, and a few other games where they benefited from fortunate bounces. As a Mets fan, it's easy to imagine those things going the other way, and we probably can't count on them continuing all season.
   6. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: June 08, 2021 at 04:31 PM (#6023216)
does it have anything to do with not being owned by financial criminals anymore?
   7. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: June 08, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6023223)
does it have anything to do with not being owned by financial criminals anymore?

I think the guy who owns the Mets now is still a financial criminal, he's just better at it than the Wilpons.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: June 08, 2021 at 10:04 PM (#6023274)
Mets ERA from deGrom, Stroman, TWalker this season - 1.77
from all other starters - 5.38

that's before Peterson's 4 ER in 2.2 IP tonight

not great at math, but I think that "other" ERA goes up....
   9. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: June 08, 2021 at 10:17 PM (#6023285)
I think the guy who owns the Mets now is still a financial criminal, he's just better at it than the Wilpons.
fair point.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 08, 2021 at 10:17 PM (#6023286)
I am not sure they are good but they might be less bad than other NL East teams.

The AL East is a staggering 30-13 against the NL East ... and that's with the O's at 1-6. But then the NLE is even against NLC and above 500 against NLW ... while the ALE is 500 against the rest of the AL and the ALW is getting its butt kicked by NLW. In short, the transitive property does not hold in baseball.

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