Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, July 03, 2020

With baby on the way, Trout unsure if he’ll play

“Honestly, I still don’t feel comfortable with the baby coming,” Trout said via Zoom. “Obviously with the baby coming there’s a lot of stuff going through my mind right now, my wife’s mind, my family. Trying to get the safest and most cautious way to get through a season. I told [general manager] Billy [Eppler] and I told a bunch of guys, it’s going to be tough. I have to be really cautious the next few weeks. The biggest thing is I don’t want to test positive and bring it back to my wife. I’ve thought hard about this and I’m still thinking about this.”

Trout, 28, worked out with his teammates at Angel Stadium on Friday—the first day of official workouts—but he wore a mask while running the bases and during outfield drills. Trout wants to play but said he has nightly conversations with his wife and things could change.

“Obviously, sports is really big for the country right now but we’re risking our families and our lives to go out there and play for everyone,” Trout said. “My mindset is to play. I want to play. It’s just a tough situation. I have to play it by ear. You never know what’ll happen tomorrow or the next day. There could be an outbreak. There are a lot of questions I don’t have the answer to.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 03, 2020 at 05:36 PM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus, mike trout

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 09:07 PM (#5960931)
He might want to watch this
   2. Zach Posted: July 03, 2020 at 10:33 PM (#5960936)
It would be ironic if the Angels took advantage of a short year and made a run with Trout out.
   3. Hank Gillette Posted: July 04, 2020 at 05:20 AM (#5960961)
For his sake and his family’s sake, I hope he opts out. Why put your future at risk for a fractional part of a season that is unlikely to even be completed?
   4. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: July 04, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5960967)
Wasn't he on the "tell us when and where" train?
   5. The Duke Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5960968)
He has to play because if he doesn’t, they will win it. Albert will lead them to glory
   6. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5960980)
4 - It wouldn’t surprise me if he was, he’s a baseball rat. When would that have been? I don’t think it’s unreasonable that someone would change their mind somewhere between 500 deaths and 125,000 deaths.
   7. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:32 AM (#5960981)
If Trout ops out can he opt back in? Say she has the baby mid-August and the Angels are playing well would he be eligible to come back on September 1 or is it a situation where he has to make a decision now?
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5960982)

Wasn't he on the "tell us when and where" train?



Back in April, he expressed skepticism over the initial one-city plan precisely because of his wife's pregnancy and all that entailed.


“I obviously want to play as fast as we can. Get to a city, maybe Arizona, they’re throwing out Florida. Being quarantined in a city, if we play a couple of months, it would be difficult for some guys,” Trout said Wednesday in a video interview with NBC Sports. “What are you gonna do with family members? My wife is pregnant. What am I gonna do when she goes into labor? Am I going to have to quarantine for two weeks after I come back?

“Because obviously I can’t miss that birth of our first child. So there’s a lot of red flags, a lot of questions.”


I think he's been pretty consistent on this.
   9. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 04, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5961024)
1) Trout has been publicly consistent on this.
2) I wouldn't play if I were him. At most, he'll play 45 regular-season games. Within those 45 games, he could get hurt, could get COVID. It'll marginally help his counting stats, but who cares - it's 45 games, max. He's set for life financially, so that's not an incentive.
3) He's having his first kid this summer. He'll never regret doing everything this summer to be ready for it.

This is a no-brainer!

BTW, I told my wife today that Mike Trout might not play this year because his wife is expecting during the season. She said, "I don't know who he is, but I definitely would think more of him for making that decision."

Then, she was like, "Baseball's playing this year? I know basketball is planning on it, but didn't hear anything about baseball."

If you did a ratio of "How awesome is the player" to "how well-known are they in mainstream America", Mike Trout must have the worst ratio. Maybe some non-Tiger golfers would be in the conversation? Actually, some NHL players could win this contest: Can anybody name the league's MVP last season? What if I told you he played for Tampa Bay? I bet 95% of Americans couldn't name the MVP of the NHL last season if I gave them his team...anyway, Mike Trout shold take the season off.
   10. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 04, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5961025)
Actually, some NHL players could win this contest: Can anybody name the league's MVP last season? What if I told you he played for Tampa Bay?
okay, so i'm enough of an NHL fan to be able to narrow this down to 3 (hopefully...)

it's either stamkos, point or kucherov.

point is too unknown; stamkos is always hurt; i'm going kucherov.

and i'm wrong.


no, i'm not. it's kucherov. okay then.
   11. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 04, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5961027)
For his sake and his family’s sake, I hope he opts out. Why put your future at risk for a fractional part of a season that is unlikely to even be completed?

agreed.

noone who opts out will look back on that decision 30 years from now and think "i made a huge mistake".

   12. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 04, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5961035)
noone who opts out will look back on that decision 30 years from now and think "i made a huge mistake"
If you get the virus anyway because you or your family & friends were too lax - or just unlucky - while your teammates who reported virus-free remained that way because they and the team’s staff fully adhered to the rigorous mitigation measures, you might have a few regrets.
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 04, 2020 at 07:40 PM (#5961057)
What if I told you he played for Tampa Bay?


I honestly didn’t remember that Tampa still had a team - I guess I was thinking of Atlanta?

I don’t really follow hockey, though.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 04, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5961073)
I bet 95% of Americans couldn't name the MVP of the NHL last season if I gave them his team.

Well, 30% of Americans probably couldn't tell you where Tampa Bay is. Another 65% would sensibly respond "they play hockey in Tampa?" So giving them the team is not going to help at all.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: July 04, 2020 at 08:46 PM (#5961077)
Which kinda got me thinking, what would the quiz wild guess be without a hockey knowledgable person. And somebody would say "probably some French Canadian guy, let's guess some French name." And then I wondered who the last French Canadian to win the Hart was and, without taking the time to check actual birthplaces of everybody, the "obvious" last one was Martin St-Louis in 2003-4 for, coincidentally enough, Tampa Bay. And reading his Wiki (I don't think I'd every heard of him and I was still in the US then), he was undrafted. So there ya go.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: July 04, 2020 at 08:52 PM (#5961080)
And furthering my NHL exploration, I see Tampa's goalie won the Vezina last year too. Brodeur 07-08 looks to be the last Quebecois to win that one -- wasn't he about 60 at the time? (I kid, I kid)
   17. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 04, 2020 at 09:04 PM (#5961081)
And furthering my NHL exploration, I see Tampa's goalie won the Vezina last year too. Brodeur 07-08 looks to be the last Quebecois to win that one -- wasn't he about 60 at the time? (I kid, I kid)
fun fact: he played 10 more years after that.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:40 PM (#5961094)
Not quite. 2014-15 was his last season. (5 starts at age 42 ... still a GAA under 3.) He'd be one of those guys who just misses out on the 1-team thing as those were the only appearances he made that weren't for the Devils. Career #1 in goalie games played, wins and losses. He gave up more goals than anyone in NHL history! A bum.

He was a #20 pick in the draft. I have no idea what NHL drafts look like but, "WAR" ordering aside, that looks like a pretty deep one. #1 pick was Owen Nolan who played 1200 games (15 full seasons). Jagr was at #5 and he went on for over 1700 games. All told, 5 of 21 1st round picks made it to 1200+ games and another 6 were in the 900-1100 range. The 90 MLB 1st round started with Chipper (that was a good pick) and 8-10 more guys had quite long careers of 10-12 years of regular play. 9 picks had 64 or fewer games.

The always reliable Pirates took RHP Kurt Miller at #5 who went on to 81 career innings of a 7.48 ERA (none for the Pirates though). There don't appear to have been any early injuries and he was a top 15 prospect for a couple of years. But he never got the hang of AAA much less MLB. He was traded from Pitt to Tex for Steve Buchele then from Tex with Robb Nen (oops) to the Marlins for (not that one) Cris Carpenter. His final MLB stop was the Cubs. Then to Japan where he got knocked around some more. (Not to pick on Mr. Miller but that 7.48 ERA stood out that hign in the draft so I was curious what his story was.)

EDIT: And the NHL-MLB difference there isn't the typical difference between MLB and NFL/NBA where the players are more obviously ready for the pros and mostly developed in college ... nearly everybody drafted in the 1st round of the NHL draft was 18. They were all playing juniors or in foreign leagues though. Only one college draftee that year and he didn't make it.
   19. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 04, 2020 at 11:55 PM (#5961110)
He was a #20 pick in the draft. I have no idea what NHL drafts look like but, "WAR" ordering aside, that looks like a pretty deep one.


It's in the top 10 for draft years. Using "point shares" you have two inner-circle hall of famers (Jagr and Brodeur), then a bunch of very good players (Zubov, Tkachuk, Bondra, Nolan, Weight).

2003 would probably be the best one ever. It doesn't have the peak players like 1990, but it has HOF-level players like M.A. Fleury, Burns, Weber, Staal, Suter, Getzlaf, Perry, Bergeron, and great players like Phaneuf, Pavelski, and Carter.

1983 was an interesting one because it has two easy HOF'ers drafted early (Yzerman at #3, Lafontaine #4), arguably the greatest goalie ever at #199 (Hasek), and then 3 HOF Soviet players were also picked that year (Fetisov, Makarov, and Tretiak).
   20. Itchy Row Posted: July 04, 2020 at 11:58 PM (#5961112)
If there’s a time when he tells little Tyler Skaggs Trout that baseball ended because he didn’t want to miss Tyler’s birth, he will have still made the right call.
   21. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5961113)
Not quite. 2014-15 was his last season. (5 starts at age 42 ... still a GAA under 3.) He'd be one of those guys who just misses out on the 1-team thing as those were the only appearances he made that weren't for the Devils. Career #1 in goalie games played, wins and losses. He gave up more goals than anyone in NHL history! A bum.
it was not intended to be a factual statement.
He was a #20 pick in the draft. I have no idea what NHL drafts look like but, "WAR" ordering aside, that looks like a pretty deep one. #1 pick was Owen Nolan who played 1200 games (15 full seasons). Jagr was at #5 and he went on for over 1700 games. All told, 5 of 21 1st round picks made it to 1200+ games and another 6 were in the 900-1100 range. The 90 MLB 1st round started with Chipper (that was a good pick) and 8-10 more guys had quite long careers of 10-12 years of regular play. 9 picks had 64 or fewer games.

the hit rate for the 1st round of the NHL draft is very high, career lengths tend to be very long, and season to season variance tends to be fairly low.

hockey players don't break down physically like baseball players. there's no hockey equivalent to "can't catch up to a mid-90s fastball anymore". aside from concussions, there's no injury that instantly ends careers like a pitcher with a torn labrum.

hockey IQ goes a lot further than baseball IQ, so even when players lose their peak athleticism or hand-eye coordination (and that happens earlier than you'd think...around age 25), that loss tends to be balanced by gains in hockey sense.
   22. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:05 AM (#5961114)
it has HOF-level players like M.A. Fleury, Burns, Weber, Staal, Suter, Getzlaf, Perry, Bergeron, and great players like Phaneuf, Pavelski, and Carter.

fleury is not a HOFer.

   23. John Northey Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:34 AM (#5961118)
I could see Trout staying out until September, then if the Angels are in contention (after his kid is born) he comes back and helps them do a big push to reach the playoffs.
   24. RJ in TO Posted: July 05, 2020 at 01:26 AM (#5961121)
fleury is not a HOFer.
Fleury has 466 wins, was the primary goalie for a cup winner, and took an expansion team to the Stanley Cup finals in another season. Whether or not he deserves to be a HOFer, he's going to be a HOfer.
   25. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:43 AM (#5961127)
Nikita Kucherov. Andrei Vasilevskiy. I mean, this isn't that hard.

Sorry, back to the matter at hand. If Trout opts out, I'm at once devastated as an Angel fan (and a fan of baseball) and completely in favor of it as a father. He needs to make sure his family is safe and he needs to be there for the birth of his firstborn.
   26. Greg K Posted: July 05, 2020 at 06:12 AM (#5961129)
fleury is not a HOFer.
Fleury has 466 wins, was the primary goalie for a cup winner, and took an expansion team to the Stanley Cup finals in another season. Whether or not he deserves to be a HOFer, he's going to be a HOfer.

Man, it's been a long time since I followed the NHL closely. I was thinking...yeah, Theo Fleury is a bit of a borderline case...wait, they award wins to forwards now?
   27. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 08:15 AM (#5961134)
Fleury has 466 wins, was the primary goalie for a cup winner, and took an expansion team to the Stanley Cup finals in another season. Whether or not he deserves to be a HOFer, he's going to be a HOfer.
he was also (nearly singlehandedly) the reason why PIT only won 1 cup before they replaced him, despite having two of the three best players in the sport (arguably) for 15 years.

his career isn't over yet, which means he still has time to add to his resume, but some of his playoff performances were season-ruining dumpster fires.
   28. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 05, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5961165)
He had his good and bad but I think the overall numbers are pretty good for Fleury. His post-season performance is almost exactly on par with his regular season (2.59 vs. 2.57 and .908 vs. .913), he won one Cup, led his team to two other Finals and is one season away from being third all time in wins. He’s more Don Sutton than Pedro Martinez but that looks like a Hall of Famer to me.
   29. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5961195)
He had his good and bad but I think the overall numbers are pretty good for Fleury. His post-season performance is almost exactly on par with his regular season (2.59 vs. 2.57 and .908 vs. .913), he won one Cup, led his team to two other Finals and is one season away from being third all time in wins. He’s more Don Sutton than Pedro Martinez but that looks like a Hall of Famer to me.

fleury's resume is not meaningfully better than corey crawford or mike smith, and neither of them come close to being HOFers, either.


the goalie tiers from fleury's generation run something like this:

surefire HOF:
handsome lundqvist

*gap*

likely/probable HOFer:
jonathan quick
braden holtby
carey price
tuukka rask

*gap*

possible HOFer:
pekka rinne
cam ward
corey crawford
sergei bobrovsky
roberto luongo
tim thomas
john vanbiesbrouck
ryan miller
marc andre fleury



at his absolute best, fleury was a fringe top-10 goalie.
at his worst, fleury could (and did) nearly singlehandedly cost his team the chance to win a cup.


that's not a HOFer. he is not a HOFer.
   30. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: July 05, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5961197)
If you get the virus anyway because you or your family & friends were too lax - or just unlucky - while your teammates who reported virus-free remained that way because they and the team’s staff fully adhered to the rigorous mitigation measures, you might have a few regrets.


IF IF IF IF IF IF. Go if yourself, dummy.
   31. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 05, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5961201)
The comparison to Crawford is out there just hand-waving away 200 extra wins and Mike Smith? Mike Smith seriously? That’s nuts. Crawford at least has two cups but those wins.

I think you are mistaking “ability” for “achievement.” Fleury’s accomplishments in the game have him in the second tier (and Luongo also belongs there). I’m not sure what year you are saying Fleury singlehandedly cost his team a cup. I guess 2012 but he had a lot more good playoff runs than bad ones. He was very good in the 2009 run to the Cup and in 2008 he posted a sub-2.00 GAA while coming up two wins short.

Having said all that, again I think Fleury cruises in. I would call it a David Ortiz or Yadier Molina situation, whatever you think of him he IS going to go in. 3rd all time in wins, Stanley Cup champion, that’s getting you in the Hall.
   32. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5961203)
The comparison to Crawford is out there just hand-waving away 200 extra wins and Mike Smith? Mike Smith seriously? That’s nuts. Crawford at least has two cups but those wins.

wins are a team dependent counting stat, and they are an unsuitable measurement for a goalie who started at age 20, and played his entire prime alongside two of the best players in the world.

Having said all that, again I think Fleury cruises in. I would call it a David Ortiz or Yadier Molina situation, whatever you think of him he IS going to go in. 3rd all time in wins, Stanley Cup champion, that’s getting you in the Hall.
"wins" also do not translate 1:1 across NHL history, due to the NHL's implementation of bonus point shootouts. and fun fact: those teammate that fluery had were also two of the most efficient shootout specialists in the world.
I think you are mistaking “ability” for “achievement.” Fleury’s accomplishments in the game have him in the second tier (and Luongo also belongs there). I’m not sure what year you are saying Fleury singlehandedly cost his team a cup. I guess 2012 but he had a lot more good playoff runs than bad ones. He was very good in the 2009 run to the Cup and in 2008 he posted a sub-2.00 GAA while coming up two wins short.

no, he really did not.

his "good" playoff runs were mostly just him managing not to defecate all over himself while he was carried by one of the most consistently underachieving dynasties in sports history (until they replaced fleury and immediately won 2 more cups, back to back).
his "bad" playoff runs ruined seasons where his team had 100+ points and were leading contenders to win the cup.


fleury's '08 and '18 playoff runs were legitimately good. i can credit him for those. the rest of his playoff runs ranged from "competently mediocre" to "a raging dumpster fire where his unique awfulness forced a #1 seed to replace their franchise starting future HOF goalie with a 36 year old backup thomas vokoun to try to salvage their playoff hopes".
   33. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 05, 2020 at 05:09 PM (#5961206)
Having said all that, again I think Fleury cruises in. I would call it a David Ortiz or Yadier Molina situation, whatever you think of him he IS going to go in. 3rd all time in wins, Stanley Cup champion, that’s getting you in the Hall.


I don't think he cruises in, simply because goalies have historically had a tough time getting in if they're not clearly all-time greats (Brodeur, Roy, etc.). Fleury has been good, but not great for a bunch of great teams. He's had moments of greatness mixed in with moments of mediocrity. I would put him well below Luongo and Lundqvist among his generation, and even below Rask, Rinne, Price, and Holtby. I don't think I would vote for Fleury.

Luongo is 7th all time in goals saved above average. Lundqvist is 14th, Rask 18th, Rinne 23rd.

Fleury is 59th. I don't think that disqualifies him necessarily, since there are some Hall of Fame goalies not too far off from that level, but I think it shows he's rather over-rated in terms of his actual performance.
   34. RJ in TO Posted: July 05, 2020 at 05:56 PM (#5961211)
This year's voting committee was John Davidson, David Branch, Brian Burke, Cassie Campbell-Pascall, Mark Chipman, Bob Clarke, Marc de Foy, Michael Farber, Ron Francis, Mike Gartner, Anders Hedberg, Jari Kurri, Igor Larionov, Pierre McGuire, Bob McKenzie, Mike Murphy, David Poile and Luc Robitaille. How many of those guys do you think will care about the advanced stats, and how many do you think will care about only wins and Stanley Cups.

Again, I'm not saying whether or not he deserves to be a Hall of Famer, but he's going to be a Hall of Famer.
   35. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5961212)
This year's voting committee was John Davidson, David Branch, Brian Burke, Cassie Campbell-Pascall, Mark Chipman, Bob Clarke, Marc de Foy, Michael Farber, Ron Francis, Mike Gartner, Anders Hedberg, Jari Kurri, Igor Larionov, Pierre McGuire, Bob McKenzie, Mike Murphy, David Poile and Luc Robitaille. How many of those guys do you think will care about the advanced stats, and how many do you think will care about only wins and Stanley Cups.

i don't think a meaningful number of that group will care about advanced stats. fwiw, neither do i, really. i also don't think they'll give two shits about "wins". that has never been a meaningful stat for evaluating goalie performance, and i see no reason to think that will change at any point in the near future.

i doubt any of them would fight as hard against it as i would, but i do think most of them have enough knowledge of the sport and have been close enough to the game to know that fleury does not pass the smell test.

   36. Walt Davis Posted: July 06, 2020 at 02:02 AM (#5961234)
This makes me wonder what happened to my HHoF souvenir puck (ca. 1975).
   37. Walt Davis Posted: July 06, 2020 at 04:05 AM (#5961240)
More ancecdotal than scientific but some discussion about longer-term effects for those with "mild" cases of covid.

Like I said, largelyanecdotal. Lord knows if I had covid (1) I'd probably be freaked by every little thing that went wrong after and (2) I'd blame that on covid. So that's probably some of what's going on in these reports. But the more scientific stuff in the article is no fun either.
   38. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 06, 2020 at 07:49 AM (#5961243)
Man, Trout is so bland that even a BBTF post about him turns into a hockey thread.
   39. Ron J Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:14 AM (#5961245)
#38 Yeah. But if it had been a Craig C. article we'd have gotten … I don't know. Maybe a 7 year's war discussion.
   40. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 06, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5961256)
Man, Trout is so bland that even a BBTF post about him turns into a hockey thread.
So...how’s the weather where you are? Hot and sunny in Chicago.
   41. The Mighty Quintana Posted: July 06, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5961285)
Did Trout ever play hockey? Man he woulda been a force...Tkachuk/Neely type power forward.
   42. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 06, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5961325)
This year's voting committee was John Davidson, David Branch, Brian Burke, Cassie Campbell-Pascall, Mark Chipman, Bob Clarke, Marc de Foy, Michael Farber, Ron Francis, Mike Gartner, Anders Hedberg, Jari Kurri, Igor Larionov, Pierre McGuire, Bob McKenzie, Mike Murphy, David Poile and Luc Robitaille. How many of those guys do you think will care about the advanced stats, and how many do you think will care about only wins and Stanley Cups.

Again, I'm not saying whether or not he deserves to be a Hall of Famer, but he's going to be a Hall of Famer.


If all they cared about were wins and Cups, Chris Osgood and Mike Vernon would have been elected a long time ago. Regardless of whether or not they'll use advanced stats, it's really hard to get elected as a goalie if you're not a clear legend or obviously the best goalie of your generation. I expect Henrik Lundqvist will get in fairly easily, even without the Cups, and I expect Luongo, Rask, and Rinne to get serious discussion as well, with Luongo having the best shot because of the win totals (plus three top-3 Vezina finishes and four top-3 All Star finishes and a Jennings trophy).

Fleury will be in that next tier of guys to be discussed, but I don't think he gets in without a dominant season (and he's already 35). He's never even been in the top 3 for Vezina voting or All Star voting, which means no one has ever considered him a top 3 goalie in any individual season. Why would they then consider him for the Hall of Fame?

Edit: Even if Cups really do matter that much, Fleury hasn't really done a ton in the playoffs to earn his three rings. He was just okay when two of the best players in the world carried Pittsburgh to the championship in 08-09. He barely played in the playoffs in 15-16, and he was just okay in 16-17 before Matt Murray took over in the Cup Finals. His other playoff appearances have been more misses than hits.
   43. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 06, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5961333)
surefire HOF:
handsome lundqvist

*gap*

likely/probable HOFer:
jonathan quick
braden holtby
carey price
tuukka rask

*gap*

possible HOFer:
corey crawford
marc andre fleury


SV% / GAA / wins / Playoff SV% / Playoff GAA / playoff wins

Player A .918 / 2.45 / 260 / .919 / 2.28 / 48
Player B .916 / 2.53 / 282 / .928 / 2.09 / 48
Player C .917 / 2.49 / 348 / .914 / 2.53 / 25
Player D .922 / 2.26 / 291 / .927 / 2.19 / 50
Player E .913 / 2.39 / 325 / .922 / 2.23 / 46
Player F .913 / 2.57 / 375 / .911 / 2.59 / 62
Player G .918 / 2.43 / 459 / .922 / 2.28 / 61
   44. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5961335)
Edit: Even if Cups really do matter that much, Fleury hasn't really done a ton in the playoffs to earn his three rings. He was just okay when two of the best players in the world carried Pittsburgh to the championship in 08-09. He barely played in the playoffs in 15-16, and he was just okay in 16-17 before Matt Murray took over in the Cup Finals. His other playoff appearances have been more misses than hits.
it would be more accurate to say fleury was pulled after giving up 4 goals in the first 12 minutes of game 3 in the eastern conference finals.

   45. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5961336)
SV% / GAA / wins / Playoff SV% / Playoff GAA / playoff wins
Player A .918 / 2.45 / 260 / .919 / 2.28 / 48
Player B .916 / 2.53 / 282 / .928 / 2.09 / 48
Player C .917 / 2.49 / 348 / .914 / 2.53 / 25
Player D .922 / 2.26 / 291 / .927 / 2.19 / 50
Player E .913 / 2.39 / 325 / .922 / 2.23 / 46
Player F .913 / 2.57 / 375 / .911 / 2.59 / 62
Player G .918 / 2.43 / 459 / .922 / 2.28 / 61

Player A == crawford
player B == quick
player C == price
Player D == rask
player E == holtby
player F == fleury
player G == handsome
   46. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 06, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5961337)
Close. Crawford, Holtby, Price, Rask, Quick, MA F, Lund.

There's a lot less -gap- than implied in those tiers.
   47. RJ in TO Posted: July 06, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5961341)
If all they cared about were wins and Cups, Chris Osgood and Mike Vernon would have been elected a long time ago.
I'm actually surprised to find that Mike Vernon hasn't been elected already. I just assumed he'd been selected a long, long time ago.
   48. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5961342)
Close. Crawford, Holtby, Price, Rask, Quick, MA F, Lund.

There's a lot less -gap- than implied in those tiers.
maybe, but your framing also doesn't reflect the difference in quality of those players' peaks:

SV% / GAA
Player A .929 / 2.42
Player B .923 / 2.17
Player C .931 / 2.12
Player D .929 / 2.03
player E .917 / 2.18
Player F .919 / 2.33
Player G .926 / 2.11


   49. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 06, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5961343)
What do you guys think of Curtis Joseph? I think he was burdened that he didn't really play on any great teams when he was in his prime. He made a lot of bad teams look better than they were with the Oilers and the Leafs. He was good for the Wings but they gave up on him pretty quickly despite the fact that he was pretty good for them.
   50. RJ in TO Posted: July 06, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5961344)
I'm not normally a believer in players being clutch or chokers, but Joseph is probably the best example I can think of as a guy who sure seemed like a choker.
   51. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:44 PM (#5961351)
I'm not normally a believer in players being clutch or chokers, but Joseph is probably the best example I can think of as a guy who sure seemed like a choker.

Really? If anything, I'd conisder him clutch. His playoff save percentage was .917, significantly better than his regular season save percentage. Even in those series that his lost, Cujo put a .905 save percentage.

He had some big upsets against teams that were much better especially when he was with the Oilers. As a Leaf fan, it does bother me that they lost against Buffalo and Carolina in the conference final but he played well. They lost against the Devils despite having a lead in the series but those teams were better than the Leafs.

   52. RJ in TO Posted: July 06, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5961356)
Really? If anything, I'd conisder him clutch. His playoff save percentage was .917, significantly better than his regular season save percentage. Even in those series that his lost, Cujo put a .905 save percentage.
I remember this game, where he shat the bed for St. Louis, various playoffs with the Leafs where he seemed to specialize in losing in OT, and the series with the Red Wings, where he lost four straight 1 goal games in the first round in a loss to the #8 seed. Despite playing for a lot of good teams, he never once made it to a Stanley Cup finals. He always seemed to be not quite good enough.

This is probably an extremely unfair view of his career, but it's the sort of memory I have of his time in the NHL.
   53. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5961366)
I'm not normally a believer in players being clutch or chokers, but Joseph is probably the best example I can think of as a guy who sure seemed like a choker.


Really? If anything, I'd conisder him clutch.


These two comments back-to-back really don't tell in favor of the "clutch exists" hypothesis.
   54. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5961368)
I added the following columns: Vezina top 3, All Star top 3, Vezina top 10, All Star top 10, Jennings. I also added Player H, Roberto Luongo, who belongs in tier 2, probably near the top of it.

Player A .918 / 2.45 / 260 / .919 / 2.28 / 48 / 0 / 0 / 3 / 3 / 2
Player B .916 / 2.53 / 282 / .928 / 2.09 / 48 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 1
Player C .917 / 2.49 / 348 / .914 / 2.53 / 25 / 2 / 2 / 7 / 5 / 1 (plus 1 Hart)
Player D .922 / 2.26 / 291 / .927 / 2.19 / 50 / 1*/ 1*/ 4 / 5 / 1
Player E .913 / 2.39 / 325 / .922 / 2.23 / 46 / 2 / 2 / 6 / 4 / 2
Player F .913 / 2.57 / 375 / .911 / 2.59 / 62 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 7 / 0
Player G .918 / 2.43 / 459 / .922 / 2.28 / 61 / 5 / 3 / 10/ 11/ 0
Player H .919 / 2.61 / 614 / .916 / 2.54 / 32 / 3 / 4 / 9 / 8 / 1

*Rask is likely to be pretty high up there on Vezina balloting for the current year. The rest of these guys, probably not.


I think that makes those tiers look pretty good, although I think I would add another tier:

HOFer:
Henrik Lundqvist - he was dominant for a decade as the award voting shows

Probable HOFer:
Roberto Luongo - almost as dominant as Lundqvist but with some sketchier playoff numbers; huge win totals show his longevity
Carey Price - as dominant as Lundqvist but over fewer years; can reach King Henrik status if he regains his form
Pekka Rinne - I didn't add him to the table, but he belongs there. He's right on the border of this tier and the one below

Will be seriously discussed, but certainly no better than a coin flip at this point:
Tuukka Rask - He's got a good chance to move up a tier if he puts up another season like this last one
Braden Holtby - Brief period of dominance, but he's already fading fast
Jonathan Quick - You can point to the rings, but he was really a product of the system and he went downhill very, ahem, quickly.

Some people will champion their cause, but they don't have much chance:
Corey Crawford - Again with the rings, but no top 3 votes in all stars or Vezina
MA Fleury - See Crawford, Corey


   55. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5961370)
where he lost four straight 1 goal games in the first round in a loss to the #8 seed.


The Ducks were the 7th seed that year and CuJo had nothing to do with those losses; that was JS Giguere completely stealing that series. Giguere stole three straight series until he met his match in Brodeur in the finals, but still became one of the only Conn Smythe winners on a losing team. Those playoffs were so fun as a Ducks fan, although the "Off the floor and on the board" moment from Kariya is a little haunting in retrospect. It was electrifying when it happened, though.
   56. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:53 PM (#5961378)
I think that makes those tiers look pretty good, although I think I would add another tier:
which is kind of amazing because i did most of it off the top of my head. holtby and rask were the only ones who were mostly off my radar before i double checked things. i also think i labeled the tiers poorly. tier 2 should be "possible HOFer" instead of likely/probable, and tier 3 should be more of a "mcgwire" tier.
Jonathan Quick - You can point to the rings, but he was really a product of the system and he went downhill very, ahem, quickly.
i can't say whether he was just a product of the system, but quick's 2012 was one of the best goalie seasons in my lifetime.
Carey Price - as dominant as Lundqvist but over fewer years; can reach King Henrik status if he regains his form
price carried (ahem) that franchise for a decade where they had no business sniffing a playoff race, let alone winning series.
Roberto Luongo - almost as dominant as Lundqvist but with some sketchier playoff numbers; huge win totals show his longevity
i just don't see it. a 19 year career where he missed the playoffs 12 times is backbreaking, imo.
Henrik Lundqvist - he was dominant for a decade as the award voting shows
he was just so good for so long that you can't even fake an argument against him. he's a 100% no doubt future HOFer.
Pekka Rinne - I didn't add him to the table, but he belongs there. He's right on the border of this tier and the one below
i think he just got too late a start. goalies tend to peak later than any other position in any other sport, but 26 is really late to rack up HOF credentials without a massive 5-8 year peak. as good as rinne, he doesn't have that. his candidacy is 60-70% of what chase utley's will be.
   57. Obo Posted: July 06, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5961380)
I remember this game, where he shat the bed for St. Louis

True, but the only reason St. Louis got to that game 7 was that he carried them there. I'm a Leaf fan going back to the seventies and the first six games of that series was probably the best I've ever seen an opposing goaltender play.
   58. RJ in TO Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5961389)
These two comments back-to-back really don't tell in favor of the "clutch exists" hypothesis.
I remember when Claude Lemieux was touted as a great clutch player because of his playoff runs in the 1994-1995 and 1996-1997 seasons.

For his career, he ended up with 379 goals in 1215 regular season games, or 0.312 goals per game.

In the playoffs, he ended his career with 80 goals in 234 playoff games, or 0.341 goals per game.

The difference between the two means he scored an extra 2.34 goals in the playoffs over his career than what would have been expected based on his regular reason rates, which is basically noise. As he scored 26 goals in those two playoffs, including 7 game winners, I have no doubt there were a bunch that were clutch in there, but there's not a lot in the overall playoff record to indicate some repeatable magical clutchness.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JPWF13
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogIs 2020 finally the year for a DH to win MVP?
(23 - 2:34pm, Sep 19)
Last: Rally

NewsblogClint Frazier’s Patience Pays Off For the Yankees
(2 - 2:27pm, Sep 19)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogRoger Angell Turns One Hundred
(5 - 2:24pm, Sep 19)
Last: Rally

Sox TherapyThe Imperfect Schedule - Games 152-162
(1 - 1:43pm, Sep 19)
Last: plink

NewsblogExpanded playoffs beyond 2020? Inside the MLB push — and the pushback
(11 - 1:22pm, Sep 19)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT - NBA Bubble Thread
(2702 - 12:44pm, Sep 19)
Last: ramifications of an exciting 57i66135

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - Brave New World
(112 - 12:08pm, Sep 19)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogWhite Sox Promote Garrett Crochet
(7 - 12:00pm, Sep 19)
Last: The Mighty Quintana

Hall of Merit2021 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(349 - 10:53am, Sep 19)
Last: kcgard2

NewsblogOMNICHATTER has got that herd mentality, for September 18, 2020
(37 - 9:56am, Sep 19)
Last: Crispix Attacksel Rios

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(9674 - 9:28am, Sep 19)
Last: manchestermets

NewsblogJason Heyward is a Superstar Again
(14 - 6:22am, Sep 19)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogPro Football Hall of Fame surprises Joe Buck at halftime with prestigious Rozelle Award
(17 - 4:43am, Sep 19)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogMinnesota Twins' Josh Donaldson ejected for kicking dirt at plate after homer
(12 - 12:00am, Sep 19)
Last: Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert

NewsblogManfred: Expanded playoffs likely to remain beyond 2020
(154 - 8:33pm, Sep 18)
Last: Howie Menckel

Page rendered in 0.5587 seconds
48 querie(s) executed