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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, October 26, 2021With Experts on the Negro Leagues Involved, the Hall of Fame’s Era Committee Plans Are Emerging
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 11:55 AM | 30 comment(s)
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1. The Duke Posted: October 26, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6049145)I'd elect Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Luis Tiant, Ken Boyer and Billy Pierce before Jim Kaat. Minoso should see a small boost when his NGL stats are included for discussion.
I think it’s a good move & I look forward to seeing what Negro League candidates make the ballot. I assume Buck O’Neil will make it.
I’d like to see one of the living candidates get voted in on the Golden Days ballot even though I think Minoso & Allen are the most deserving. I guess I’m pulling most for Oliva since he missed by one vote the last time he was on a ballot. Kaat has come close before too & both him & Oliva are more deserving than Wills in my opinion
1. He was famous. Many people think the HoF is supposed to recognize fame (don't blame me). He was really quite famous, still talked about a lot in the early-mid 70s. That fame faded a good bit when Brock broke his season record and the MLB career record.
2. He won a MVP
3. 5 AS games
4. 16 points of black ink (Minoso 19, Kaat 16 ... Oliva is your choice here)
5. Single-season record with 19 Rbaser!!! Career #26 all-time (more than Ty Cobb!!)
More seriously, the gap between Wills and Brock is not very big, especially given Wills was an average defensive SS while Brock was an indifferent LF. The main difference is playing time which is the result of Wills not getting a chance until age 26 and the fact that Brock was given 2400 PA of not much production (<2 WAR) at the end of his career to break the career SB record and reach 3000 hits. Brock of course was a first ballot guy while Wills stayed around 25-30% for the entire 15 years.
HOMers all !
(but not Kaat, hey that rhymes)
MW 39.6 bWAR; CH 40.9 bWAR
MW 1 MVP, 4 Top 10 finishes; CH 1 Cy Young, 4 Top 10 (Top 4) finishes
MW 3 World Series rings; CH 5 World Series rings
MW 14 seasons (started late); CH 15 seasons (ended early)
Catfish got into the Hall of Fame relatively easily (3rd ballot), Wills is still waiting. While Catfish's resume is admittedly better than Wills', I think mostly he just had luckier timing. He first appeared on the HOF ballot in 1985. The best starting pitchers with him (by JAWS) were Jim Bunning, Wilbur Wood, Mickey Lolich -- arguably all better than Catfish, but that was a minority opinion in 1985, so he looked like the best pitcher on the ballot to most voters. No real contenders became eligible in the next two years and Catfish was elected with Billy Williams on a pretty weak 1987 ballot. (Ron Santo was the standout exception, but we know he was overlooked for years.)
Wills spent a full 15 years on the ballot, debuting at a healthy 30.3% but never getting past 40.6%. Luis Aparicio debuted a year after him and probably took some votes from him for six years (as a better fielding SS and a similar hitter/runner), and every year for a while there seemed to be at least one new slam-dunk guy at the top of the ballot (Mays, Kaline, Gibson, Aaron/FRobinson, BRobinson); meanwhile, Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman kept pushing Wills' once-impressive 104 SB season down the list. By the end of his eligibility, he just didn't look all that impressive anymore.
Back to Wills. 12.2 dWAR lifetime isn't impressive at SS. His case is weak for the HOF, close to being a horrid joke. His 39.6 bWAR lifetime is nice, but not hall worthy by any stretch. It just beats Harold Baines who had 38.7 as a DH. Tony Fernandez has a better case with his 45.3 WAR, 4 Gold Gloves, 5 All-Star Games, 7 times over 100 for OPS+ over 17 seasons, dWAR of 14.9. Yeah, he didn't steal 100 bases ('just' 246 lifetime) but he was a better player by pretty much any measure but SB. For WS rings, 1 for Fernandez, 3 for Wills. 787 postseason OPS for Fernandez vs 571 for Wills. I'm sure I could find quite a few other shortstops who have better cases too.
And then there was the time he messed with the batters box...
No disagreement with your overall point (Garvey is an overrated defensive player and not HOF-worthy), but I think it's dangerous to look at dWAR for 1B -- they're almost always negative, even for the good fielders. Keith Hernandez is widely regarded as the best defensive 1B ever, but he only had seven seasons with more than 0.1 dWAR, peaking at 0.9. His career dWAR is 1.3.
Six-time Gold Glover J.T. Snow had only one season with more than 0 dWAR, and five years with -1 or worse. Albert Pujols had a nice five-year peak with consecutive positive numbers, including a phenomenal-for-a-1B 2.2, but was negative pretty much every other year; -3.3 career. Gil Hodges had two positive seasons, a 0.1 and a 0.6; -5.4 career. Anthony Rizzo has five positive seasons (peak of 0.5) but is -0.9 for his career.
It looks like Garvey was an above-average (not elite) defensive 1B at his peak, when he was winning his Gold Gloves, and below average outside of it.
#11 Boyer & Tiant are over the line for me but neither candidate has even been able to break away from the pack of candidates & come close to election. Tiant is now eligible under the Modern Baseball Era ballot instead of the Golden Days which is worse for him since I think the Modern Era has a more impressive slate of eligible candidates
I'd never thought about that comparison before, but at least in one sense it's not a bad one.
Career WAR: Wills 39.6, Maris 38.3
Please just use RField to decouple the positional adjustment.
That's unfortunate. He's the best living player available on the previous ballot.
The 1955 Cats were the incubator of managers. Among Wills' teammates were Sparky Anderson, Dick Williams, Danny Ozark, and Norm Sherry. (Also on the team were Carroll Beringer and Joe Pignatano, longtime coaches, among names I recognize).
If we waive the five year rule for Munson, does he get in? Having read the arguments made a few months ago, he seems to be the most deserving C not on the ballot.
I really think Campaneris is horribly underrated both for his defense and his running. I made some comments a few months ago about RBaser, its hard to understand how its being calculated. I havent looked at all his seasons but I think if we were to look critically at the crude defensive metrics and RBaser he'd be above the line, not a borderline candidate, but above.
And he was 5th in the NL in WAR, so it's not like he wasn't a credible candidate. But you are right in that the award should have been Mays.
Maybe clearer to say ... when comparing players at the same position, just use Rfield. Arguably, if comparing the same position across eras, use TZ (the number in Rfield for previous eras) because DRS (the number in Rfield for more recent players) doesn't go back that far (TZ is available for everybody in the fielding table ... but how TZ is calculated differs across eras depending on what stats are available). But when comparing across different positions, you have to use dWAR (or do your own defensive spectrum adjustment). So Garvey is rated as an average 1B (career Rfield = 0) but he gets down to zero only due to putting up -20 in his late 30s.
It can also be useful to keep in mind that dWAR is really dWAA. And the average defender is, give or take, a 2B/3B/CF. While it's highly likely that dWAR does underrate Hernandez, at least his career dWAR of 1.3 means he'd have been an average 2B/3B if he'd thrown RH. He probably wasn't fast enough to be a good CF but he probably would have been a very good corner OF although that likely would have been a waste of his reaction time. An average 1B of his era and PT would have been about -10 dWAR so he was about 11 wins better than the average 1B (Rfield/10 is a good enough approximation). Over roughly the same playing time, Aparicio was about 14 wins better than the average SS so TZ/dWAR basically rate Hernandez as the Aparicio of 1B. Bear in mind that 1B don't get that many balls hit to them so even if Hernandez did have the range of Aparicio, he wouldn't get to as many balls as Aparicio did. But, sure, we have to consider the possibility that Hernandez was the Ozzie of SS.
Now Wills 330 OBP lifetime, peak of 355 would stand out as why he wasn't that good a leadoff hitter, his 2 seasons with an OPS+ over 100 out of 14 seasons would also kick his case to the curb.
Ozzie only had 4 seasons of 100+ and had a career 87 OPS+ which is one point below Wills'. Ozzie's lifetime OBP was just 337 (lgOBP 328) compared to Wills 330 (lgOBP 322). Per 162 games, Ozzie's oWAR was 3.1; Wills 3.2. Offensively they're a draw except Ozzie has about 2500 more PA -- which likely also means that if we focus on his peak, his offense will creep ahead of Wills. But that's not the point, the point is that Wills' level of offense is hardly disqualifying for a SS -- see also Aparicio, Maranville and Omar.
It is of course perfectly correct to say that, by HoF standards, Wills' combination of offense and defense (and playing time) is not good enough while Ozzie's, Aparicio's and maybe Omar's are. That said, given Baines and Mazeroski (36 WAR) and Rice (48) are in the HoF and Omar (46, even if by VC eventually) and Yadi (42) almost certainly will be, the claim that Wills' WAR is insufficient by modern standards doesn't remotely hold up. (Let's not even get started on relievers and Jack Morris.)
what does this sentence even mean?
Serious question: is there really any other candidate for that title in the last, say, 60 years?
Can you clarify what is meant here? Presumably he would be involved in more plays as a RF than a 1b. That seems to be the assumption. It seems to me a good RF could be 25 defensive runs ahead of the average RF such as Mookie or ROberto CLemente. Do we have any idea of what sort of arm strength KH had? Did have that kind of an arm?
WHile I do agree with the conclusion, using Baines and Maz in this argument is like Bad HoF Arguments 101, right? Everyone agrees Baines is an awful pick. And Maz really cannot use career WAR as a justification as he's not borderline by that measure. Maz is there because of the HR and as Ozzie of 2bmen. Not career WAR.
OK so does TZ adequately measure that, and if not how much was his ability worth? If KH initiated a DP on a bunt say, he should get credit for an extra out (.23), and the fact there is no runner on 2b (w/ one out; .41). So I guess those are worth 0.65 runs? I dont know how many DPs KKH initiated but I think somewhere there's a record of that.
THen there's baserunners kills, where he gets an assist on a runner who wasnt forced. I think an average team produces about 40 of those per year (not counting CS). So if the average is 5, maybe KH created 5 more? Those are worth a lot as they eliminate a baserunner.
Then there's basic fielding range. Does anyone have any concrete ideas on how much all that was worth?
That Maury Wills not only stole 104 bases, he also stole the MVP that Willie Mays clearly deserved.
Personally, I'm surprised Tommy Davis didn't do better in the voting. Those numbers were insane.
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