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Wednesday, February 20, 2019

With Machado to Padres, Phillies say they won’t be pressured into a Bryce Harper deal. Now what? – The Athletic

The Machado signing shows that emotion is still part of the process. How many of emotionally motivated signs work out?

Machado’s record deal generates a fascinating dynamic because, over the coming days and weeks, the Phillies will have to make a choice between entertaining fans and running a business. Klentak spoke Tuesday like a callous bookkeeper because he knows agent Scott Boras is listening. And Boras knows the vast amount of pressure on Klentak to land his client, Bryce Harper, no matter the cost. Every public statement and every piece of leaked information has an agenda.

This much became evident on Tuesday: The Phillies had a limit with Machado. They have a limit with Harper. These consultations have included and are supported by owner John Middleton, who has been in Clearwater since the start of spring training.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 20, 2019 at 06:13 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: manny machado, padres

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   1. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: February 20, 2019 at 07:38 AM (#5816723)
The Machado signing shows that emotion is still part of the process.
How so?
   2. Jim Furtado Posted: February 20, 2019 at 09:40 AM (#5816738)
Ten years at $300 million by a small market team. It's a lot of payroll risk for them to take on when they haven't really hit their competitive window yet.
   3. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 20, 2019 at 09:45 AM (#5816742)
FWIW, Fangraphs's projected standings now forecast 86 wins for the Padres, which would put them in line for a WC spot. I think the NL is going to be wild this year. Every team but Miami has at least some basis for hope...
   4. . Posted: February 20, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5816763)
FWIW, Fangraphs's projected standings now forecast 86 wins for the Padres,


That's way too high.
   5. bfan Posted: February 20, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5816771)
The Phillies owner volunteering that they would spend money stupidly could not have helped their cause to hold some financial line. I think "aggressively" would have been a better word for him to use, but he has found himself on the very top of the food chain, while I toil away, so what do I know.
   6. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: February 20, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5816772)
FWIW, Fangraphs's projected standings now forecast 86 wins for the Padres, which would put them in line for a WC spot. I think the NL is going to be wild this year. Every team but Miami has at least some basis for hope...


86 feels high to me for them but I agree with your larger point about the NL. The reality is that with the two Wild Card spots any team that thinks it can finish .500 should at least have a realistic chance to make the playoffs. The difference between 81 and 88 wins is small enough; a break here, a good year there and you are in.
   7. donlock Posted: February 20, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5816776)
With Machado off the table, there is one fewer stupid gm out of the market, I suspect. Why would you now offer Harper a huge offer? Where is he going to play? Who but the Phils have money, a stupid owner and a need for the publicity (and a fickle fan base). Philadelphia could offer him 5 years for $150 million but my guess is they will choose to top Machado's contract, for no good reason other than publicity and vanity.
   8. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: February 20, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5816777)
my guess is they will choose to top Machado's contract, for no good reason other than publicity and vanity
Five years for $150,000,001. Checkmate, libs!
   9. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 20, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5816779)
The "competitive window" is a myth, like the Yeti, or his North American cousin, the Sasquatch.
   10. Jay Seaver Posted: February 20, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5816818)
Ten years at $300 million by a small market team. It's a lot of payroll risk for them to take on when they haven't really hit their competitive window yet.


When you're talking about a ten-year contract, doesn't the question of a competitive window kind of become irrelevant? If the Padres don't think that they're going to be able to field a playoff-caliber team at some point while Machado is under contract, then what are they even doing in Major League Baseball? It maybe doesn't look good if they make a splash and it doesn't elevate them immediately to contention, but if he's not blocking anyone, I don't know that it's entirely illogical to grab a piece like this while you can, even if it may take a couple years to fully build the rest of the the team up.
   11. Jesus Luzardo Maraschino Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5816852)
Signing good players in their prime is part of rebuilding right? Once you have traded your high priced talent for prospects you then use that money traded away for new players to pair with the prospects. It's tough to project even the best players > 3 years out. Harper and Machado should be as good a bet as any to be good for a while.
   12. baudib Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5816863)
I think Machado is a better bet to be worth his contract than Harper.
   13. BillWallace Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5816865)
FWIW, Fangraphs's projected standings


Where do you get that, is it premium?
I'm cycling through fangraphs now and I can't find 2019 standings projections. What's on their depth charts shows 34.3 WAR, which given the league totals implies an 80 win projection.
   14. JJ1986 Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5816868)
I see 79 wins projected by each of Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
   15. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5816874)
The Padres are in an unusual position right now. San Diego basically has no other sports teams, besides the Anaheim Ducks' AAA hockey affiliate. A soccer team is coming but it might not even be at the level below MLS, it's not clear. The college teams have not much support. They have been allotted a franchise in the possibly-bankrupt Alliance of American Football. The Padres should capitalize on this.
   16. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5816881)
I see 79 wins projected by each of Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.


Same. It has definitely changed since this morning.
   17. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 20, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5816882)
Where do you get that, is it premium?


Here
   18. BillWallace Posted: February 20, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5816913)
Thanks Dolf, I went to that page, saw last year's 66-96 and stopped looking.

79-80 wins seems like a good projection to me. And that fits perfectly in line with me thinking this is a great deal for them. Teams with 80 win projections do make the playoffs every season so they have a shot this year. And they're on the upswing.

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