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Friday, November 15, 2019

With two Cy Young Awards, Jacob deGrom on Cooperstown path

Maybe, just maybe, we can start taking educated guesses on how this storybook tale of Jacob deGrom’s rise from college shortstop to elite ace will end.

Having won consecutive NL Cy Young awards by claiming 29 of 30 first-place votes, deGrom is now one of 11 pitchers to ever win consecutive Cy Young awards.

Next season he’ll have his chance to become just the third pitcher to ever win three in a row.

He’s already one of the greatest pitchers in Mets history, an organization fueled by great pitching. And these awards cements him as one of his generation’s most dominant pitchers.

Bit of an overbid for someone who has only pitched for six years, isn’t it?

 

QLE Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:14 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cy young award, jacob degrom

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   1. Howie Menckel Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:45 AM (#5901314)
it's only a 4 or 5 hour drive from Queens, so it's not that onerous a path for him to visit.

maybe he can take Tim Lincecum as a passenger?
   2. caspian88 Posted: November 15, 2019 at 01:23 AM (#5901318)
deGrom does have exactly as many wins (66) through age 31 as Phil Niekro, so there is that...
   3. bbmck Posted: November 15, 2019 at 02:04 AM (#5901320)
Seasons of 5+ pitching WAR for the Mets: 10 Tom Seaver; 3 Jacob deGrom and Jerry Koosman; 2 Dwight Gooden and Jon Matlack; 1 Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, RA Dickey, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Al Leiter, Bret Saberhagen, Sid Fernandez, Frank Viola, David Cone and Craig Swan

Seasons of 5+ pitching WAR for each franchise since 1962:

49 - BOS
42 - CHW
40 - LAD
38 - CHC
37 - ATL

31 - CLE, NYM, NYY
30 - MIN, SFG
28 - TOR
27 - HOU, KCR, PHI, STL
24 - CIN, DET, LAA

22 - SEA
21 - WSN
19 - TEX
17 - BAL, OAK
15 - ARI, PIT

12 - MIL
8 - MIA, SDP
7 - COL
6 - TBR
   4. Scott Ross Posted: November 15, 2019 at 07:02 AM (#5901325)
I agree it feels a bit premature, but his 32.7 bWAR is 20th all-time (since 1901) for a pitcher over his first 6 seasons; another 30 bWAR over the next 8 years doesn't seem so farfetched. Perhaps by the time he's eligible, America will be ready for a 150-win Hall of Fame starter. Johan Santana appearing on just 2.4% of the ballots suggests we're not yet there.
   5. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:19 AM (#5901331)
I think by that point - the wins won't be a problem....

I think it might be the IP that creates some skeptics - obviously, he's gonna need to continue to be really, really good but health seems like the bigger issue. I think any injury that causes him to miss half a season or more cooks his (slim) HoF goose.

deGrom does have exactly as many wins (66) through age 31 as Phil Niekro, so there is that...


Big Unit had 99 - but that might be a better "Well if he can...". Johnson did get started earlier, but he looked like he'd be done by 30 because he walked everyone. His first *decent* season was age 26 - but his first really *good* season wasn't until age 29.
   6. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:53 AM (#5901344)
Re: 3, the White Sox had good pitchers? If you said: quick, Ziggy, name White Sox pitchers, I'd say Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Eddie Cicotte (none of whom count in the list in 3), and, uh, LaMarr Hoyt?
   7. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5901347)
deGrom does have exactly as many wins (66) through age 31 as Phil Niekro, so there is that...


Big Unit had 99 - but that might be a better "Well if he can...".


I know he isn't in the HOF, yet, however, through age 31, Curt Schilling was 84-77.

   8. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5901349)
And speaking of Red Faber, maybe deGrom does have a hall of fame path. Faber didn't break in until he was 25, looks like a good Cy Young candidate (if there was such a thing back then) at ages 32 and 33, and eventually gets inducted by the VC. Now all deGrom has to do is pitch 4000 innings through his age 44 season and not throw the 1919 World Series.
   9. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5901361)
f you said: quick, Ziggy, name White Sox pitchers, I'd say Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Eddie Cicotte (none of whom count in the list in 3), and, uh, LaMarr Hoyt?


Wilbur Wood.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5901364)
Re: 3, the White Sox had good pitchers? If you said: quick, Ziggy, name White Sox pitchers, I'd say Ted Lyons, Red Faber, Eddie Cicotte (none of whom count in the list in 3), and, uh, LaMarr Hoyt?


Tommy John had some good years with Chicago.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:45 AM (#5901366)
Gary Peters. Jack McDowell. Alex Fernandez. Stan Bahnsen. Juan Pizarro. Salome Barojas. Steve Trout. Ross Baumgarten.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5901368)
Gary Peters. Jack McDowell. Alex Fernandez. Stan Bahnsen. Juan Pizarro. Salome Barojas. Steve Trout. Ross Baumgarten.

I'm pretty sure you made up a couple of those. One was a Conquistador.
   13. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5901369)
Wilson Alvarez.
   14. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5901370)
Mark Buehrle, Chris Sale, Britt Burns, Tom Seaver.
   15. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5901371)
One was a Conquistador.


Bo Lamar. Stew Johnson. Larry Miller*. Ollie Taylor. Caldwell Jones. Travis "Machine Gun" Grant.

*Gotta love a league in which the single-game scoring record-holder is let go through the expansion draft after said season.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5901372)
Here are the active qualified ERA+ leaders:

Rank Player (yrsageAdjusted ERAThrows
1. Clayton Kershaw 
(1231)   157 L
2. Jacob deGrom 
(631)        148 R
3. Chris Sale 
(1030)              140 L
4. Corey Kluber 
(933)           134 R
5. Max Scherzer 
(1234)        132 R
6. Stephen Strasburg 
(1030130 R
7. Justin Verlander 
(1536)     129 R
8. Gerrit Cole 
(728)               127 R
9. Zack Greinke 
(1635)         125 R
10. Cole Hamels 
(1435)        123 L
     David Price 
(1233)           123 L
12. Yu Darvish 
(732)             122 R
13. Johnny Cueto 
(1233)      121 R
14. Madison Bumgarner 
(1129120 L
      Jon Lester 
(1435)            120 L
16. Adam Wainwright 
(1437118 R
17. Felix Hernandez 
(1533)   117 R
18. Sonny Gray 
(729)            116 R
     CC Sabathia 
(1938)         116 L
20. Lance Lynn 
(832)            115 R
21. Patrick Corbin 
(729)        113 L
      Tanner Roark 
(732)         113 R
      Masahiro Tanaka 
(630)    113 R
24. Carlos Carrasco 
(1032)   112 R
25. Jake Arrieta 
(1033)         111 R
       Gio Gonzalez 
(1233)      111 L
      Jose Quintana 
(830)        111 L 


You could draw several cutoffs here.

To me, an ERA+ of 125 or above is obviously HOF level pitching. Anyone that puts in 13-15 years at this level is in like Flynn. Verlander is there. Grienke is there. Scherzer is just about there. Sale, Kluber and Strasburg still have some work to do but are on pace. (Sabathia peaked at an ERA+ of 125 after his 12th season, by the way)

It seems totally unfair that Hamels/Price/Lester would fall short with an ERA+ so damn close to the other guys, but it still feels like there's a rather definitive cutoff right around there.

An ERA+ of 114 or below is probably in the "not good enough" cutoff. Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark could do what they've been doing for 20 years and they probably wouldn't make it.

Between 125 and 114 the guys that probably need some narrative heft to make a case for Cooperstown.

Now, where is the "10 years of this is enough" cutoff? Obviously, Kershaw was in that bucket when he achieved his 10 years. And just as obviously, if there's a second pitcher that belongs in that bucket, it's deGrom. But one could reasonably draw the line between Kershaw (157 ERA+) and deGrom (148 ERA+), and require more than 10 years of this from deGrom, even supposing he kept this up. Santana peaked at 11 years, 142 ERA+.
   17. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:54 AM (#5901373)
Richard Dotson. Tom Bradley. Jesse Jefferson. Jason Bere. Ricky Horton. Jose DeLeon. Jose Contreras.
   18. salvomania Posted: November 15, 2019 at 10:02 AM (#5901374)
The mid-1960s White Sox pitching was second maybe only to the Orioles in the AL. A bunch of really good, barely-known-today guys like Joel Horlen, Gary Peters, and Juan Pizarro anchored staffs that from '63-'68 had ERA+'s of 118, 127, 106, 118, 123, and 117 (and having Hoyt Wilhelm in the pen didn't hurt).

EDIT: I now that I look at those Orioles staffs, I see they weren't as consistently good as the Sox.
   19. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 15, 2019 at 10:04 AM (#5901376)
Now all deGrom has to do is pitch 4000 innings through his age 44 season and not throw the 1919 World Series.

He's already got that last part down.
   20. TJ Posted: November 15, 2019 at 10:23 AM (#5901385)
One was a Conquistador.

Bo Lamar. Stew Johnson. Larry Miller*. Ollie Taylor. Caldwell Jones. Travis "Machine Gun" Grant.


Love the ABA reference, gef, but don't give Manfred any ideas- he might think a red, white and blue baseball may appeal to the younger generation.
   21. ajnrules Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5901431)
Javier Vazquez, Kirk McCaskill, Floyd Bannister, Lucas Giolito

Funny story. I was driving in New York trying to get to Mickey Welch's gravesite on May 15, 2014. The traffic was awful, and at one point I had passed by Citi Field when a Mets game was just starting. I figured I could stop and visit, but decided to head towards the cemetery. By the time I got there the cemetery was closed. And of course the player making his Major League debut for the Mets that day was Jacob deGrom.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5901432)
I was driving in New York trying to get to Mickey Welch's gravesite on May 15, 2014.
That seems like a fairly arbitrary goal for one's day.
   23. JAHV Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5901444)
Can someone with more Mets knowledge explain to me what happened to deGrom between 2013 and 2014? A 9th round pick out of college (I assume as a senior, given his age), is out all season at age 23 (Tommy John?), has a very good season at A ball, albeit as an overaged 24-year-old, has a mediocre season as a 25-year-old across three levels of the minors, and then just decides to be a perennial Cy Young candidate the next season.

I doubt THIS level of success was foreseen, but was this in the realm of possibility for him in the minors? Is this a case of putting it all together? Or a coach tweaking something? How did deGrom become DEGROM?
   24. PreservedFish Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5901446)
You could not have been more wrong about that cemetery's opening hours, if you thought you had time to catch a ballgame, and it turned out you didn't even have time to head there directly.
   25. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 15, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5901449)
How did deGrom become DEGROM?
Shift Lock.
   26. DanG Posted: November 15, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5901457)
With two Cy Young Awards, Jacob deGrom on Cooperstown path
With two MVPs, Maris/Murphy/Gonzalez on Cooperstown path
   27. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 15, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5901464)

One thing that's important to remember about deGrom is that he was a shortstop growing up, and only started pitching during his junior year of college, in 2009 (he made one relief appearance as a sophomore). He was drafted by the Mets in 2010 (after his junior year), then missed 2011 due to Tommy John surgery.

After a good 2012, he broke his finger during the offseason, and he said this affected his mechanics in 2013. At that point he still had very little pitching experience compared to your average MLB rookie, let alone a 26-year-old rookie. But he supposedly fixed his mechanics and started throwing a curveball during the 2014 offseason. And the rest is history.

So yeah, clearly the Mets saw something in him -- they drafted him in the 9th round after one season of college pitching with a 4.48 ERA. But he was a bit of a lottery ticket, and I don't think anyone expected him to be *this* good.
   28. Mudpout Posted: November 15, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5901470)
I saw a question a few days ago with someone asking whether deGrom had a shot at making the HOF. While the realistic answer is he has an uphill battle (just about every pitcher does after only 6 seasons), the obvious path to him making it involve him pitching for another 8-10 years, ideally at least 1-2 more elite seasons, and something close to a gentle decline. It's also worth keeping in mind that he'll be on the ballot for the first time in something like 2035 if he has a shot, and if not voted in he'll likely be in front of a Veteran's Committee equivalent in the 2050's. The mindset on career win totals, IP and accumulated career totals, and what constitutes the HOF level of this era will likely be very different than the general current consensus.

While there's a number of HOF pitchers who didn't really get going until their mid 20s or even later, a fun comp is another NY pitcher, Carl Hubbell. Hubbell debuted at 25 with a half season, was one of the better pitchers in baseball through 29, then won an MVP at 30 with a 9 WAR season. He remained elite through 33, took a step backwards at 34, then never really had another full season through age 40 as his performance steadily declined. Hubbell has 6 more WAR than deGrom through 31 (roughly 38 to 31, with Hubbell throwing 600 more innings). From 32-40 Hubbell averaged 200 IP and 3.4 bWAR per season. If deGrom remains elite for another year or two, it's not out of the question he can put up similar WAR.
   29. The Duke Posted: November 15, 2019 at 01:58 PM (#5901475)
He could use a good nickname like “Thor”
   30. Booey Posted: November 15, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5901479)
#26 - Those guys WERE on a Cooperstown path. That was never a guarantee they'd actually get there, of course.
   31. Rally Posted: November 15, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5901486)
Murphy and Gonzalez were. They would have hit 500+ homers and made it easily with normal decline phases. No so much Maris. Outside of 1960-61 he never did anything HOF worthy. Adding 5 or so years of average performance and about 20 HR a year would give Murphy and Gonzalez HOF-looking numbers, Maris not so much.
   32. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 15, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5901487)

One thing that's important to remember about deGrom is that he was a shortstop growing up, and only started pitching during his junior year of college, in 2009 (he made one relief appearance as a sophomore). He was drafted by the Mets in 2010 (after his junior year), then missed 2011 due to Tommy John surgery.

After a good 2012, he broke his finger during the offseason, and he said this affected his mechanics in 2013. At that point he still had very little pitching experience compared to your average MLB rookie, let alone a 26-year-old rookie. But he supposedly fixed his mechanics and started throwing a curveball during the 2014 offseason. And the rest is history.

So yeah, clearly the Mets saw something in him -- they drafted him in the 9th round after one season of college pitching with a 4.48 ERA. But he was a bit of a lottery ticket, and I don't think anyone expected him to be *this* good.


TJ surgery duly noted...

Might that be one thing that points to his potential to maintain a peak later than most pitchers?

I.e., By the time most pitchers hit age 20/21 - they've probably put some extended mileage on their arms and shoulders.... Could skipping an awful lot of younger workload give him a better chance to extend his peak effectiveness (velocity and stuff) deeper into his 30s than we might otherwise expect?
   33. Adam Starblind Posted: November 15, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5901530)
So yeah, clearly the Mets saw something in him -- they drafted him in the 9th round after one season of college pitching with a 4.48 ERA. But he was a bit of a lottery ticket, and I don't think anyone expected him to be *this* good.


Even as a minor leaguer, he was down in the prospect pecking order behind Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Rafael Montero.
   34. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 15, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5901535)
Might that be one thing that points to his potential to maintain a peak later than most pitchers?

I.e., By the time most pitchers hit age 20/21 - they've probably put some extended mileage on their arms and shoulders.... Could skipping an awful lot of younger workload give him a better chance to extend his peak effectiveness (velocity and stuff) deeper into his 30s than we might otherwise expect?


Wasn't that a Boras argument about Arrieta when he was a FA?
   35. bbmck Posted: November 15, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5901547)
There are 16 pitchers debut since 1955 with 6x.x pitching WAR who are presumably done pitching (CC included, Kershaw and Greinke excluded). It's currently 8 in the Hall of Fame with 150 combined seasons totaling 514.1 pitching WAR and 8 currently not inducted with 153 combined seasons totaling 509.3 pitching WAR.

Averaging out the pitchers it's 64 pitching WAR and the following pitching WAR through that age and the Top 2 active pitchers at that age, only Hamels is on pace in 2nd for his age, no one is on pace in 3rd, Rich Hill was 2nd oldest pitcher in 2019 so filled in spots with recently retired pitchers who were that age in 2019:

21: 2.0 - Mike Soroka 5.7, Emmanuel Clase 0.9
22: 4.0 - Julio Urias 2.3, Jaime Barria 2.1
23: 6.7 - Jack Flaherty 8.2, Brad Keller 6.2
24: 10.3 - German Marquez 11.7, Roberto Osuna 8.7
25: 15.1 - Luis Severino 12.4, Jose Berrios 7.5

26: 19.1 - Aaron Nola 20.3, Noah Syndergaard 14.1
27: 24.2 - Carlos Martinez 14.3, Jon Gray 11.5
28: 28.8 - Gerrit Cole 23.4, Julio Teheran 19.5
29: 32.8 - Madison Bumgarner 32.5, Kyle Hendricks 20.6
30: 37.2 - Chris Sale 45.4, Stephen Strasburg 32.6

31: 42.0 - Clayton Kershaw 65.4, Jacob deGrom 32.7
32: 45.8 - Lance Lynn 23.1, Yu Darvish 22.1
33: 49.3 - Felix Hernandez 50.2, David Price 40.0
34: 52.4 - Max Scherzer 58.7, Clay Buchholz 17.9
35: 55.6 - Zack Greinke 66.7, Cole Hamels 58.7

36: 58.0 - Justin Verlander 71.4, Ervin Santana 25.9
37: 59.5 - Adam Wainwright 36.0, Oliver Perez 10.1
38: 61.3 - CC Sabathia 62.5, Pat Neshek 10.8
39: 62.4 - Josh Beckett 35.2, Rich Hill 14.4
40: 63.2 - Mark Buehrle 60.1, Johan Santana 51.1
Over 40: 64.0 - Bartolo Colon 48.0, Fernando Rodney 7.5

And then simple math based on projections, deGrom needs 20 pitching WAR in the next 3 years or 25 in the next 5. Johan Santana, Chuck Finley, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb and Frank Tanana combined for 25 Hall of Fame votes with a peak that compares well to deGrom but falling short of a Hall of Fame pace but doesn't necessarily predict how 203x voters will view a similar career.

4 years ago King Felix was at 50.0 vs 32.8 pace and deGrom was 8.3 vs 24.2 pace, things can change quickly for pitchers.
   36. bbmck Posted: November 15, 2019 at 11:01 PM (#5901586)
Debut since 1955, pitching WAR only, through that age.

21: 100 pitchers have 2+ WAR, 7 HoF
22: 93 pitchers have 4+ WAR, 9 HoF
23: 102 pitchers have 6.7+ WAR, 11 HoF
24: 83 pitchers have 10.3+ WAR, 10 HoF
25: 57 pitchers have 15.1+ WAR, 11 HoF

26: 60 pitchers have 19.1+ WAR, 12 HoF
27: 46 pitchers have 24.2+ WAR, 12 HoF
28: 43 pitchers have 28.8+ WAR, 12 HoF
29: 43 pitchers have 32.8+ WAR, 13 HoF

Age 30: 12 HoF, Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw have 37.2+ WAR. Chris Sale just finished his Age 30 season and is just below Age 32 pace. The other 18 non-HoF who are on pace at 30:

Age 31: Justin Verlander, Vida Blue, Carlos Zambrano and Jon Matlack below 42 WAR, Zambrano retires
Age 32: Dwight Gooden, Blue, Verlander, Sam McDowell and Matlack below 45.8 WAR, McDowell retires
Age 33: Gooden, Blue and Matlack below 49.3 WAR, Felix Hernandez's 2019 season, Johan Santana and Matlack retire
Age 34: Roy Oswalt, Frank Tanana, Rick Reuschel, Gooden and Blue below 52.4 WAR
Age 35: Kevin Appier, Tanana, Oswalt, Reuschel, Gooden and Blue below 55.6 WAR, Zack Greinke's and Cole Hamels' 2019 seasons, Oswalt and Gooden retire, Dave Stieb pretty much retires

Age 36: Stieb, Reuschel, Appier, Tanana and Blue below 58 WAR, Verlander's 2019 season, Mark Buehrle, Appier and Blue retire
Age 37: Bret Saberhagen, Reuschel, Stieb and Tanana below 59.5 WAR, Saberhagen retires
Age 38: Reuschel, Stieb and Tanana below 61.3 WAR, CC Sabathia presumably retires
Age 39: Tanana and Stieb below 62.4 WAR, Tanana retires
Age 40: Stieb below 63.2 WAR, Stieb retires
Age 42: Reuschel retires
   37. Hank Gillette Posted: November 16, 2019 at 03:56 AM (#5901598)
I.e., By the time most pitchers hit age 20/21 - they've probably put some extended mileage on their arms and shoulders.... Could skipping an awful lot of younger workload give him a better chance to extend his peak effectiveness (velocity and stuff) deeper into his 30s than we might otherwise expect?


Even skipping the workload, he needed Tommy John surgery after only two years of pitching.

Maybe that doesn’t mean anything, but I would consider it worrisome.
   38. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2019 at 12:31 AM (#5901889)
For the moment, the short career threshold is set at Roy Halladay at 2749 IP and "just" 203 wins. ERA+ of 131, 65 WAR, 40 WAA, 2 CYA and 10th "all-time" in CYA shares. (Or 11th in another list) DeGrom would seem to have almost no chance at 200 wins; 2700 IP would require nearly another 1.5 times what he has so far. Another 30ish WAR in 1600 innings would put him pretty much equal to Halladay. Potentially he might get there at the end of his age 40 season.

One could of course go for Dizzy Dean but that's a stretch. Kershaw was almost certainly there after age 29 (10th season) but then he had 59 WAR and 43 WAA already, along with 3 CYAs and 4th all-time in shares. DeGrom certainly has a good shot at moving up the CYA shares board quickly -- he's already at #21. Another win would put him 13th.

But if we're going deGrom, we have to give serious consideration to Kluber. He missed almost all of this year but for 2014-18 he had 1091 IP, 151 ERA+, 32 WAR, 22 WAA. DeGrom's career totals are nearly identical but he is two years younger (and not hurt yet) which is a big advantage obviously. Kluber is ahead in CYA shares and another win pushes him all the way to 10th, passing Halladay and Palmer. Kluber also spent his wayward years in the majors so he's got some poor performances dragging down his career rate stats but, at the moment, that shouldn't matter in a comparison to deGrom.

Sale also has a claim to join those two although he's never won a CYA. But 1400 innings of 40 WAR, 27 WAA is pretty handy. But without CYAs and (likely) without big inning totals, it's hard to see how Sale can make the HoF.

Quick and dirty, ages 27-31, post-expansion, 25-35 WAR (deGrom at 30), only 8 guys have added 20+ WAR, including Scherzer (22 so far) and Verlander (30). Other guys somewhat reminiscent of deGrom are Cone (26), Fergie (26), Palmer (15) and Marichal (6). There are of course the crazy LHP and Perry (58) and Reuschel (22) although they seem more soft-tossers. There's also Schilling and Ryan who weren't good enough at 27-31 to qualify for the list. And of course Clemens (68) and others who were too good.

Some of those guys would have had substantial innings prior to age 27 of course so possibly deGrom should age better than they did. But based on the quick list, another 30 WAR looks unlikely.

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