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Friday, April 08, 2022

Yankees offer Aaron Judge long-term contract extension with total guarantee of $200 million, per report

The New York Yankees have offered their biggest star a long-term contract extension. The Yankees offered Judge a multiyear deal with a total guarantee in excess of $200 million, according to MLB Network.

The contract would make him the highest paid annual position player in team history. According to the NY Post, the Yankees offered more than $27.5 million, which would leave Judge’s AAV behind Angels’ Mike Trout and Dodgers’ Mookie Betts for the largest ever among outfielders.

Prior to Friday’s Opening Day for the Yankees, Judge told reporters that he doesn’t have an update on extension negotiations but said today remains his deadline for a deal because he doesn’t want to negotiate during the season.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 08, 2022 at 10:15 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aaron judge, yankees

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   1. Nasty Nate Posted: April 08, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6070831)
The New York Yankees have offered their biggest star a long-term contract extension. The Yankees offered Judge a multiyear deal with a total guarantee in excess of $200 million, according to MLB Network.

The contract would make him the highest paid annual position player in team history. According to the NY Post, the Yankees offered more than $27.5 million, which would leave Judge’s AAV behind Angels’ Mike Trout and Dodgers’ Mookie Betts for the largest ever among outfielders.
The report might be from the Post, but the italicized phrasing is straight from the Yankees' brass. Why are they risking alienating their star player by planting stories that could portray him as greedy and ungrateful? Could be concerning.

(mostly joking)
   2. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: April 08, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6070836)
Joking aside it definitely has the Larry Lucchino Memorial Team Spin going there. If I'm Judge I don't hate that deal but I'm also confident that deal is going to exist at the end of the season so if I'm not committed to being a Yankee I'm probably better off waiting and seeing if I can do better.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6070839)
The "I won't negotiate during the season because it's so distracting" thing has always struck me as BS.
   4. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: April 08, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6070856)
The "I won't negotiate during the season because it's so distracting" thing has always struck me as BS.


Totally agree. Their agent does it anyway. They likely aren't involved except when it's time to say "yes" or "no".
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 08, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6070857)
No deal, according to later reporting:
Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters there will be no extension with Aaron Judge today, hours before the slugger’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline. In a rare disclosure, Cashman detailed that the Yankees offered a seven-year, $213.5MM extension beginning in 2023, representing a $30.5MM average annual value.
Add some bonus money based on MVP voting & a cost-of-living escalator, and they might eventually get a deal done, IMHO.
   6. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: April 08, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6070858)
Hoo boy. That's a lot of dough for an injury-prone outfielder who's already 30.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 08, 2022 at 01:55 PM (#6070868)
@BaseballValues

By our modeling, the Yankees' offer to Judge looks light. Had he accepted, he would have left about $27M on the table, most of which is the surplus value on his 2022 arb salary. The 7/213.5 extension piece comes out about even.
   8. The Duke Posted: April 08, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6070872)
My sense is that Judge may have overvalued himself. That seems like a really good deal. He has $100 million+ downside and what, maybe $30 million upside?

And Judge just seems like a guy who belongs in the Yankees. Is he worth that much to anyone else? Finally, I'd rather give Correa $30 million for 10 years next offseason than pay Judge
   9. Walt Davis Posted: April 08, 2022 at 04:00 PM (#6070891)
Yep, if Cashman is telling the truth, Judge should have taken that. He might end up better off and of course he's already made $40 M or so, it's not the biggest gamble.
   10. Darren Posted: April 08, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6070895)
Given how much time he's missed in the past, I would think it would have been wise for Judge to take this deal. Not that I'm complaining!
   11. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: April 08, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6070920)
Heyman says Judge was looking for 9-10 years at $36MM AAV. Just silly, if true.
   12. Itchy Row Posted: April 08, 2022 at 09:53 PM (#6070923)
He’s always been one of my favorite annual position players.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: April 08, 2022 at 11:08 PM (#6070932)
Judge comps:

Frank Howard: outstanding from 30-34 with a 164 OPS+, 22 WAR, 10 WAA. Judge has substantially more defensive value. Frank fell off a cliff though ... still a solid hitter at 35-36 but just a part-timer, then done.

Frank Thomas: 136 OPS+ from 30-39, 27 WAR, 9 WAA ... again Judge has more defensive value

Andre the Giant: Fought for the WWF title and appeared in the Princess Bride at 41.
   14. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 08, 2022 at 11:08 PM (#6070933)
trying to find some comparable players to Judge (really this is Walt's area of expertise). Reggie was a 6 WAR player for 9 seasons through age 30. Also excellent hitter and very good fielder. He put up 20 WAR after his age 30 season. His defense dropped precipitously about that time. THe NYY offer suggests what? that he puts up another 25 WAR after this is age 30 season?
   15. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 12:28 AM (#6070939)
Judge seems to be about a 6 WAR player even with missed time.

some other comparables, with a nominal seasonal value based on 3 or 4 seasons up to age 30; and how many WAR they produced in next 7 seasons. Ranked from best to worst in sum of WAR for 7 seasons post age 30:

Larry Walker about 5 WAR player and a very good RF, 33.5 WAR over the last 7 seasons; his defense seemed to remain as strong as ever in those years

SHeffield sorf of a 4 WAR player with some ups downs, but managed 30.4 WAR in next 7 seasons; probably the worst fielding RF of anyone who spent considerable time there in the 90s, surprisingly his numbers dont get any worse after 30.

Yasztremski a 9.5 WAR LF with outstanding off/def skills, 26.9 next 7 and still playing VG LF for most of those seasons.

Gwynn really a 5 WAR player but a couple of off years pre 30 pulls it down, 26.4 WAR next 7; considered a VG RF (despite one horrendous season) his defense suffered after age 32.

Billy Williams was a 5 WAR player by age 30, 25 WAR over next 7; probably above average LF at age 30, he remained there for about 6 seasons his defense slumped around age 33.

McCovey, 6 WAR LF; 24.6 for next 7; thought to be pretty bad fielder moved to 1b by age 27

Reggie Smith had reached 5.5 WAR so perhaps that value; managed 22 WAR in 7 ; always below avg in RF he remained out there till age 36 w/o losing much def.

Winfield about 4.5 WAR, managed 21.4 in final 6; most think he was bad LF but there's some debate on that.

GOslin a LF with strong arm, a bit more than 5 WAR, he managed 15 WAR final 7.

Griffy a 6.5 WAR CF, managed just 7 WAR in next 7.
   16. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 12:33 AM (#6070940)
SO I guess if the offer is what 210M over 7 years? suggesting something like 25 WAR is nominally expected. That seems within reach, barring some injury. Even if he can't play RF he could probably still be a 4 WAR player at 1b. Seems like a very reasonable offer.

How much more can Judge possibly expect? Even Yasztrzemski probably the best player at age 30 on that list, only managed 27 WAR in next 7 season. So how much more upside could there possibly be for Judge? There can't be much more to be expected out of him.

EDIT: actually R Smith seems above average defensively for all/most of those years, despite a couple of off years.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: April 09, 2022 at 02:34 AM (#6070945)
most think he was bad LF but there's some debate on that.

Short debate since, other than the better part of three seasons in his early NY tenure, Winfield returned to mostly RF through 39. :-) Even in the LF years, he got 58 starts in CF. At the time there was no doubt that Winfield was a very fine OF. Whether he really was is another question but he won his last of 7 GG at age 35. Winfield is a pretty good size comp although he was much thinner in his early days and never really a huge HR threat. (On a similar note, I wouldn't say McCovey was moved to 1B at 27 ... everybody knew he was a 1B and he played it exclusively at 21-23. The issue was he was blocked by Cepeda and it took the Giants several years to figure out (a) McCovey's bat needed to be in the lineup everyday regardless you f'ing morons and (b) they really had to trade one of them (an obviously tough decision and one that probably didn't look so wise when Cepeda won his MVP in StL).

Manny is an obvious Judge comp as a hitter, again Judge a much better fielder. It's a very open question as to whether Judge's enormous size tells us anything about how he'll age, especially as a batter, but I do assume that at some point he reaches lumbering status. (Manny and the Reggies for example listed at 6-0, maybe not great comps.) McGwire is another good batting comp despite his svelte 6-5, 215 frame. :-) From 30 on, 181 OPS+, 36 WAR so there's the upside example ... and again Judge with more defensive value to this point.

Another obvious comp is his teammate Stanton but of course we don't know how he'll go through his 30s -- so far the bat hasn't declined, still can't stay healthy. Stanton was probably Judge's equal defensively before the injuries caught up to him. And of course nobody except maybe Ohtani should be compared with Babe Ruth but by the standards of baseball in his day, Ruth was pretty massive. McCovey's a good one, Boog was taller than I remembered (and not a promising comp). Ryan Howard not good.

Anyway, ideal comps for Judge are probably big guys, massive power. After that I'd go for shorter barrel-chested guys with massive power ... nobody springing to mind but there must be some (Ortiz, Mo I suppose are "short" relative to Judge). Regardless, on first glance just as the massive guys, seems like Judge's bat should do pretty well through his mid-30s at least and nobody's gonna care that much if the defense fades.
   18. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 09:42 AM (#6070950)
Yes its hard to find comparables, Judge is so unusual in size, power and a very good RF
Some more comparables, listed in order of size.
Again, estimated seasonal value at 30 followed by total WAR next 7 seasons:

Frank Howard probably 3 WAR player, produced 18 WAR in his final 6 seasons. Had played RF but was in LF at that pt. (listed at 6.7" an inch taller than Stwbry)
Strawberry Previously 6 WAR, now not much; 0.8 the rest of the way. below avg RF despite two excellent seasons.
Canseco had been 5+ WAR, now barely 3; 9 WAR the rest of the way, a bit below avg in RF
Dale Murphy about 5 WAR, only 12.6; once decent CF his def. apparently collapsed before 30, played RF pretty well the rest of the way.

**************6.4"*********************
Colavito almost 5 WAR, only 6; one of the best fielders in RF to this pt. collapsed after 30
Wally Berger 5 WAR; only 6.2, above avg CF 6'2"
Jim Rice maybe 4 WAR, only 10 WAR left, decent in LF for most of his career
Stargell 3 WAR, 30 WAR for the next 7 seasons, below avg in LF but a few random oK seasons, at 1b age 35

******6.2" and above************
Geo Foster, about 6 War, only 12, dogged it in LF

*********6'************************
Dick Allen perhaps 5 WAR having one of his greatest seasons (8.6), only 7.5 the rest of the way, not really a LF is Walt still reading this? bad at 3b, strictly 1b after 30
CHarley Keller 6 WAR age 29; only 4.6 the rest of the way; good LF until back issues derailed his career.
Joe Medwick a declining 4 WAR player, only 5 WAR left, seems to be a decent LF most of his career

**************5.10" ***********************

Jim Wynn about 5 WAR, 17 WAR the rest, seemingly bad in CF in HOU but good in RF/CF for LAD later
Puckett once 5 WAR in decline, 19.5 the rest of the way, underwhelming in CF moved to RF at 33
Hack Wilson, perhaps 6+ War player at age 30, managed only 6 more WAR. Moved from CF to RF at that pt. never really good in the OF and looks like he lost something about that time. More of your barrel chested type at 5'6".

   19. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6070952)
Whether he really was is another question but he won his last of 7 GG at age 35


yes some good pts. there about Winfield that should be mentioned.
   20. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 10:34 AM (#6070953)
we forgot Bobby Abreau, at 6' and 220 or so w/ power; a 6 WAR player at that pt. 19.6 the next 7. A good to very good defender in right, his defense seemed to collapse after age 30.

Dwight Evans, 6.2" w/ some power. a 6 WAR, 26.1 for 7 seasons. VG defender in RF dropped a lot after age 30

Paul Waner was small probably smaller than Wynn. A 5+ WAR player, got 26 the next 7. Probably above avg in RF until age 36.
   21. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 09, 2022 at 11:40 AM (#6070954)
SO I guess if the offer is what 210M over 7 years? suggesting something like 25 WAR is nominally expected. That seems within reach, barring some injury. Even if he can't play RF he could probably still be a 4 WAR player at 1b. Seems like a very reasonable offer.

Very reasonable for the team certainly. "Worst case, the team breaks even" sounds like a massive lowball if I am a player.
   22. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 09, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6070957)
How do we get to: worst case team breaks even logic? WOrse case he's Charlie Keller or Canseco or something and the team is out perhaps $170M.

MY take is that of all the players we've looked at, only a few have produced more than 25 WAR for the next 7. Even among all time greats. Even if Judge could possibly be Walker than that's worth 275M; but that's really against the odds. If he's Stargell then $250, but then even than WAR per dollar does not match on a linear scale.

Almost half the guys we've listed created 15 or less war (16 over, 13 under). That's a huge risk. Most of the big guys seemed to collapse. OTOH most of those guys had a couple bad seasons already so there was some evidence. Judge is going strong so put him more in than the Yaszstremski camp.

These two sides cant possibly be very far apart. Or he's waiting to see what the Mets will say. They seem to be the only other ones ready to back up the truck at this pt. Surely not LAD.
   23. The Duke Posted: April 09, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6070959)
I think one thing that a few people might be counting on is that with the CBA behind them and good times ahead that maybe there is just a step up in value. While true that this offseason had a lot of spending, it didn't have a lot of record-breaking spending (ok, maybe Seager).

I could easily see a guy like Correa blowing away previous comps next year. Judge seems like the perfect fit for another Pujols-like contract for Arte Moreno

The dynamics with 30 owners can be easily changed by one or two more guys spending like crazy. And what happens if the Orioles and Pirates start spending? Even if they don't spend at the top end, it pushes prices up.

If you look at the MLB only Oakland is heading into zero spend territory. d-backs seem to want to spend, the orioles will start spending next year and the pirates the year after. On the other hand, who is headed the other way or will head the other way ?

Cubs and Rangers - look like the quickie rebuild, no
Reds, maybe but not likely - their problem is solved when Votto retires
Rockies, no - but who knows with them
Twins and Indians look like a no
D-backs, maybe
Nationals, maybe they should but won't
Oriolaes and pirates - neither can spend any less than they are right now
Royals - looking poised to make a run

I'm guessing we will see huge contracts over the next few years which has to be Judge's hope.
   24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 09, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6070960)
Beyond any WAR projections, Judge has value - at least to the Yankees - due to his enormous popularity. He’s the only player with an eponymous Yankee Stadium seating area, and the team even opened the bleachers early so fans could watch home team batting practice. He lead MLB Jersey sales for 3 consecutive years, and such popularity helps drive ticket sales & TV ratings. The Yankees are certainly making money off Judge’s popularity, and it’s not surprising that he wants a share of that revenue stream.

Since Judge is worth more to the Yankees than any other team, I expect a deal to be eventually worked out, with a good 2022 season likely upping the Yankees offer, and some creativity with performance bonuses helping to bridge any remaining gap.
   25. Lars6788 Posted: April 09, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6071011)
As comp, what about Tim Salmon?
   26. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 10, 2022 at 01:06 PM (#6071041)
about a 2 WAR player at age 30, had 2.5 WAR left in the tank. 6.3" RF probably heavier than listed 200#.
   27. Ron J Posted: April 10, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6071049)
Well sure. If Judge has an injury that costs him over a year and a half as happened with Salmon then Salmon's a good comp.

Salmon was playing pretty well through 34 and them had an injury that basically ended his career. Yeah he had a half season as an OKish DH left.

Luck with injuries going forward is what'll determine whether any contract Judge signs will be worthwhile.
   28. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 10, 2022 at 07:31 PM (#6071096)
I messed up the Salmon analysis. Totally glitched. He had 12 WAR left.

I think I was looking at WAA. Duh. sorry. You're right he was playing at a 4 WAR level for much of those final seasons so kind of misleading.

Did we do Kirk Gibson? About 4.5 WAR guy at this pt. Had 13.5 WAR next 7. Playing about average def in CF/LF. Until the leg injury that hobbled him in the WS finally cratered his def.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: April 10, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6071101)
Since Judge is worth more to the Yankees than any other team,

except the Mets, of course
   30. Darren Posted: April 10, 2022 at 09:22 PM (#6071109)
Seems impossible to find a good comp for Judge in terms of combination of physical size and set of skills. Almost everyone who's been even close to his size has been a 1B or otherwise limited defensively. I guess the exception would be some rather large catchers, but those guys are tough to compare to other players in their 30s for obvious reasons. I'd be inclined to just compare him to other great players who had trouble staying healthy. Maybe he's Paul Molitor but that seems unlikely.

Maybe Judge just wants out of NY?
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: April 10, 2022 at 10:00 PM (#6071115)
there may be a price point on Judge that is too dear for the Yankees, but the Mets are willing to overpay - only in part for the shock value.

no point in Cohen havinf F U money without using some for a good F U.....
   32. Lassus Posted: April 10, 2022 at 11:44 PM (#6071124)
I wonder if the offer would have been more if he wasn't so goddamned homely.
   33. bookbook Posted: April 11, 2022 at 02:12 AM (#6071129)
Judge seems to me to be a poor bet to age well. He’s really large, and has had physical problems already. His knees and back are under more strain than most. Popularity aside, I’d be uncomfortable with my team committing more than 150 million to him.
   34. cookiedabookie Posted: April 11, 2022 at 01:10 PM (#6071157)
Since integration, outfielders through age-29 with positive baserunning, defense, and offense, less than 4000 PA, and within 15 points of wRC+:
Brian Giles, George Foster, JD Drew. Foster may be the best match on the surface. But the three averaged 23.1 career WAR after age 29 - at $8 million per WAR, that would be $185 million. I assume he wants something like 8/260, with two option/vesting years that get him to $300 million. The Yankees will have more money available this offseason as far as luxury tax is a concern. An interesting idea if I were the Yankees: six years, $200 million, with a series of four years of player options: $20/15/10/5, leading to a potential 10/250 and retiring as a Yankees great. If he's worth more than that, he will opt out. If not, he'll opt in, and it's a cheap decline that lowers luxury tax payroll.
   35. sunday silence (again) Posted: April 11, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6071212)
But the three averaged 23.1 career WAR after age 29


This is Judge's age 30 season coming up. THe offer on the table is for a bonus to $17M for this year and the 7 years x $30M starts after that. Going from memory so maybe double check. So all my calculations have been for seasons after 30.

Perhaps a minor quibble but one year really makes a difference when you're talking this stage of MLB careers. For instance those three you mentioned, averaged 20 for 7 seasons after age 30.

How does the threat of inflation factor into this? Does an oncoming recession cuts down inflation? I dunno.
   36. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: April 12, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6071246)
How does the threat of inflation factor into this?


I don't think it does. I don't think these guys use the dollars as a way of truly maxing out their income, they use it to keep score. Judge will want the largest numbers on the contract, not the one that gets him the most money. At the end of the day the difference between 290 and 300 million dollars is non-existent but being able to say "I got $300 mil" is what matters.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: April 12, 2022 at 09:04 AM (#6071250)
I don't think these guys use the dollars as a way of truly maxing out their income, they use it to keep score. Judge will want the largest numbers on the contract, not the one that gets him the most money.

yes, that is the raison d'etre for the typical uber-athlete.
it's all part of being hyper-competitive, which is how they got here in the first place.
   38. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2022 at 01:19 PM (#6071282)
I’m pretty sure that most MLB players, as well as their agents & financial advisors, know how money works. As in many fields, there may be variations in how it’s prioritized.
   39. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 12, 2022 at 04:32 PM (#6071342)
Yeah, you always hear stuff like 36-37, but I wonder.

The game itself provides plenty of opportunities for collective and individual competition. Did you know they keep statistics!?

I think a lot of this has to do with agents and the bargaining process. The process and incentives don't encourage players to settle for 90% of a huge number even if they're a chill guy who's not crazy about conflict and loves their current team.
   40. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: April 12, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6071354)
Wrong Thread

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