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Friday, December 16, 2022

Yankees struggling to unload Aaron Hicks, Josh Donaldson

The Yankees have been unable to find takers for Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks. Donaldson played a great third base, but his patented bat speed is a question. Donaldson’s presence and pay were one reason Carlos Correa couldn’t work for them.

The Mets may like to find a taker for James McCann and Darin Ruf, good players before they got to Queens. …

The Yankees want to bring back Andrew Benintendi but not at five years. …

jimfurtado Posted: December 16, 2022 at 07:41 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. DL from MN Posted: December 16, 2022 at 07:56 AM (#6109696)
What prospects do they want to attach to those contracts? I'd love to see the Twins buy some Yankee prospects with the room in their payroll.
   2. aberg Posted: December 16, 2022 at 08:01 AM (#6109698)
The "room in their payroll." Ha!

More seriously, it would be pretty funny if the Twins unloaded Donaldson to make room to sign Correa, then took Donaldson back (plus prospects) into that same budget "slot" when Correa left a year later.
   3. cookiedabookie Posted: December 16, 2022 at 08:40 AM (#6109700)
Hicks and Donaldson for Corbin. Equal money, but lower AAV. Nats get better of the trade for sure, so maybe add a fungible bullpen arm from them. But that's about the only trade I can think of that might work.
   4. Rally Posted: December 16, 2022 at 08:50 AM (#6109701)
Sure, they were totally on board with paying 350 million+ for Correa, but dammit, you can’t do that if you have one year left at 22 million for Josh.

That doesn’t compute to me. If they wanted Correa they could have gone after him, same as last year. Seems more like the Yankees don’t want to pay huge prices for a shortstop when they have Volpe and the Oswalds nearly ready to step in.
   5. shoelesjoe Posted: December 16, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6109707)
"I'll take headlines from December 2028 for $1,000 Ken"

Yankees struggling to unload Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge
   6. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:05 AM (#6109713)
Wait, it's hard to trade a guy who hit .220 and is making $20 million? That doesn't track at all.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6109714)
Do they have a 40-man roster crunch or something? Why wouldn't they just keep Donaldson as a backup?
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:32 AM (#6109715)
Do they have a 40-man roster crunch or something? Why wouldn't they just keep Donaldson as a backup?

They want to clear some of his salary.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: December 16, 2022 at 10:55 AM (#6109718)
maybe Josh can become a de facto "hustle coach" to make him more valuable
   10. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6109721)
"I'll take headlines from December 2028 for $1,000 Ken"

Yankees struggling to unload Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge


Or maybe one from December 2024: Rangers struggling to unload Jacob DeGrom

All long range contracts are a gamble. You win some and you lose some.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6109738)
And, since the 2nd half of a long-range contract are the deferred payment years, you will always "struggle" to unload a star player. If the Yanks don't want to unload Judge or Cole until Dec 2028, they will be dancing in the street.

Also Cole will be an FA in Dec 2028 unless the Yanks have extended him.

The Yanks will regret getting rid of Hicks. I don't have a clue what you folks are so up in arms about. Has anybody looked at the CF market? Do you really want Judge running out there 162 games? They might also regret getting rid of Donaldson -- they'll obviously have to eat some money to move him but it shouldn't be too hard to find somebody to take him on for $10 as 3B/DH/1B although there are some warning signs in the EV column.

Wait, it's hard to trade a guy who hit .220 and is making $20 million?

and a $8 M buyout. But nobody will particularly care if he hits 220 -- he did that in 2020 with a 132 OPS+. The issue is that the walk rate also dropped by about 5% and the ISO dropped by 100. Donaldson at 220/330/420 would be a quite useful player (about a 115 OPS+ with solid defense); at 220/310/370 (and maybe dropping) then ... well still an above-average 3B last year.
   12. cookiedabookie Posted: December 16, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6109743)
The Yanks will regret getting rid of Hicks. I don't have a clue what you folks are so up in arms about

Personally, I agree. I'd keep both, if Donaldson looks washed up after a month or two, drop him, bring up Volpe, or if Volpe is struggling in AAA, give 3B/SS to one of the Oswalds. Hicks is good when he's on the field, between Bader and him you should have a solid CF for the year. I still think they sign Benintendi, but that pushes Hicks to a 4th OF, and Cabrera to a UTL role. Maybe Conforto on a one year deal is a better way to go
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 16, 2022 at 01:52 PM (#6109751)
I wouldn’t be in a hurry to trade Donaldson or Hicks, since it’s unlikely the Yankees would be able to do so without attaching some prospects and/or absorbing much of their remaining salary. Might not be that bad if they’re only moving ‘lottery tickets’ rather than top 10 prospects, but the Yankees have some guys that they should be hanging onto.

Donaldson only has 1 year left on his contract. With the uncertainty about LeMahieu’s foot injury, the Yankees may need some 3rd base help. There was a report that Donaldson was already working out twice a day, so he will likely have the vaunted ‘best shape of his life’ advantage in 2023.

The Yankees haven’t re-signed Benintendi, or someone to take his place, so getting rid of Hicks seems premature, at best. He’s only 33 and the chance he bounces back somewhat in a reduced role are better than getting anything in trade, including meaningful salary relief, IMHO.

Not my money, but the Yankees might save more by hanging onto the prospects and taking the 1-year hit, at least to the trade deadline when there might be a better market for the guys they’re looking to move.
   14. Karl from NY Posted: December 16, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6109756)
Do they have a 40-man roster crunch or something? Why wouldn't they just keep Donaldson as a backup?

Salary, particularly the luxury tax. If they trade either of these guys to a team who isn't over the CBT, that's a net gain collectively for the two teams. Put another way, they're each better relative to their contracts for a team that isn't over the CBT.
   15. DL from MN Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6109767)
They're not paying $28M for Donaldson, they're paying $45M because his tax number is $25M this year and they are paying a 60% luxury tax. Same with Hicks - he costs $16M a season.
   16. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:44 PM (#6109770)
They're not paying $28M for Donaldson, they're paying $45M because his tax number is $25M this year and they are paying a 60% luxury tax. Same with Hicks - he costs $16M a season.
That's a weird way to look at it. The 60% is only on the amount over the threshold. Why would you blame the overage completely on Donaldson/Hicks and not on Judge/Stanton etc? Shouldn't it be proportional?
   17. DL from MN Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6109773)
That's a weird way to look at it. The 60% is only on the amount over the threshold. Why would you blame the overage completely on Donaldson/Hicks and not on Judge/Stanton etc? Shouldn't it be proportional?


They aren't looking to get rid of Judge or Gerrit Cole to reduce payroll. Moving Josh Donaldson to a different roster saves them $45M.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6109775)
That's a weird way to look at it. The 60% is only on the amount over the threshold. Why would you blame the overage completely on Donaldson/Hicks and not on Judge/Stanton etc? Shouldn't it be proportional?

No, because if you can ditch 50% of Donaldson's $28M, you effectively save almost all of it. Same with Hicks. The other players contracts don't affect the savings one bit. The tax is paid on the margin.
   19. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6109777)
Some expect Trevor Bauer will win back some of the time/money from his suspension. Word is the Dodgers want no part of him back with the team, however, and will release him if/when he’s let back in. …
The reduced suspension has been expected. As for dumping him immediately upon reinstatement, good.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:57 PM (#6109778)
No, because if you can ditch 50% of Donaldson's $28M, you effectively save almost all of it. Same with Hicks. The other players contracts don't affect the savings one bit. The tax is paid on the margin.
Isn't it the same with Cole, Severino, Judge, or Stanton? If they ditched one of their salaries, they would save double, right? No one says that they are really paying $64m for Judge. It's not only inefficient or unwanted salary that puts the team above the threshold.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6109780)
Isn't it the same with Cole, Severino, Judge, or Stanton? If they ditched one of their salaries, they would save double, right? No one says that they are really paying $64m for Judge. It's not only inefficient or unwanted salary that puts the team above the threshold.

Sure, but getting rid of inefficient salary save you money without hurting team quality. Hicks and Donaldson can be replaced.
   22. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:31 PM (#6109783)
Part of what has propped up Donaldson's value as his bat has faltered is his ability to pick it at 3B. Does the value of that go down now that the shift has been banned?
   23. McCoy Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:35 PM (#6109784)
Seems to me if you want to get out from under the CBT hit you give Donaldson an extension. Something like 15 million a year for 4 years.

For Hicks it's a bit trickier because he's younger and has more years but since he's kind of cromulent he might very well take a 6 year deal now.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:40 PM (#6109785)
Part of what has propped up Donaldson's value as his bat has faltered is his ability to pick it at 3B.

Yes and no. Per Fangraphs, good D propped him all the way up to 1.6 WAR.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 05:47 PM (#6109794)
The Yanks will regret getting rid of Hicks. I don't have a clue what you folks are so up in arms about. Has anybody looked at the CF market? Do you really want Judge running out there 162 games?

Harrison Bader is the starting CF.
   26. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 06:01 PM (#6109797)
Per Fangraphs, good D propped him all the way up to 1.6 WAR.


B-R has him at 2.5, largely down to his defense. The vagaries of WAR strike again, I guess.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 16, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6109819)
B-R has him at 2.5, largely down to his defense. The vagaries of WAR strike again, I guess.

Yes. call him average, but old and likely to decline.
   28. Howie Menckel Posted: December 16, 2022 at 09:17 PM (#6109823)
Harrison Bader is the starting CF.

yes.

at the time of the odd-looking trade, NYY broadcaster (and ex-newspaper beat guy) Michael Kay noted that Cashman was intrigued (or more) by the fact that the previous 10 WS winners all had stellar CF defense.

I found that a little weird, coming from a GM whose team hasn't even gotten that far since 2009, but here we are.

Bader is an interesting player and a claim could be made that NYY has overrated him.

but he is a hill they are willing to die on, so it makes no sense to question "getting rid of Hicks" unless you see Bader as a completely useless player.

that's doubtful, given his defense and baserunning plus a hint of more offensive upside.

personally I think Bader is a nice upgrade on Hicks.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2022 at 07:45 PM (#6109927)
Mainly I just forget Bader exists much less that he's on the Yanks. Not his fault, he's a fine player, just somehow even more anonymous to me than Kevin Kiermaier (for example). Still no reason to get rid of Hicks, still need a LF/4th OF. Especially given Bader has never topped 427 PA. So sure, if you get 650 PA from Bader and 650 from Judge then you can cobble together the other 800 PA you need. In the slightly more likely scenario that Judge and Bader combine for 1000 PA then having an average ML OFer around will still prove quite handy.

EDIT: In old-school BPro-speak, it's a beer or tacos situation. (I think that was a BPro writer.) Especially from the fan's perspective, the answer to "Bader or Hicks?" is "both."
   30. Buck Coats Posted: December 17, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6109932)
Yeah agreed, I think Hicks still has value as a 4th OF, backup CF. It's not like the Yankees are brimming with LF options anyway, I think you could argue he'd be the best option in LF right now on the roster.

Donaldson I'd be more amenable to dumping, but with DJ's uncertainty I could see value in keeping Donaldson around as a bench bat / 3b option.
   31. Cris E Posted: December 17, 2022 at 11:36 PM (#6109940)
At this point it'll cost more to get rid of Donaldson than you'd gain in roster flexibility or improved offense. Let him stand over there for one more year. Heck, he's playing for his next deal, we've seen some pretty outstanding efforts in that situation recently. Let it develop.
   32. GeoffB Posted: December 19, 2022 at 11:18 AM (#6110116)
I think that a large part of the Yankees' calculus for trying to offload Hicks and/or Donaldson for payroll relief is that the Yankees' CBT payroll is currently projected to be $288M (Spotrac), which is just under the final CBT tax threshold of $293M. Although Hal has certainly loosened the proverbial purse strings this off-season, I can't see him going all "Steve Cohen" on us. He is going to push Cashman to stay under $293M. With Cabrera much more valuable to the Yankees as a super-sub, the Yankees really, really need a left fielder. Conforto? Kepler? McCarthy? Profar? Reynolds? It's unclear to me who they are going to sign or trade for, but it's going to cost either $$$ or prospects. Torres may still be traded, which in itself will provide $5M to $10M in savings (depending on who they get back), and that could cover the cost of most of the trade targets, but that option may cost more in prospects than the Yankees could conceivably get for Torres.

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